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spc ac 201944

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0144 pm cst wed feb 20 2019

valid 202000z - 211200z

...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
southeast louisiana...southern mississippi and western alabama...

an isolated strong to severe storm could produce gusty winds through
the remainder of the afternoon from southeast louisiana into
southern mississippi and western alabama.

...southeast la into ms/al...

widespread cloud cover continues to inhibit destabilization across
the northern gulf coast. latest mesoanalysis indicates mlcape less
than 1000 j/kg, despite surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70
f. additionally, the absence of stronger forcing, severe potential
appears to be limited across the region. as such, the slight risk
has been removed as have hail probabilities. a narrow corridor from
southeast la into western al could still produce a stronger storm
capable mainly of gusty winds over the next few hours before the
severe threat diminishes completely late this afternoon.

..leitman.. 02/20/2019

.prev discussion... /issued 1030 am cst wed feb 20 2019/

...southeast louisiana and portions of mississippi/alabama...
a 1008 mb-surface low related triple point exists across
south-central ms at late morning, with upper 60s/near 70 f surface
dewpoints within the warm sector across southern ms/southeast la.
deep-layer/low-level shear are notably strong, with strong low-level
shear/srh accentuated by the entrance region of a 50+ kt
southwesterly low-level jet, which will tend to slowly weaken and
spread away from the warm sector during the afternoon.

organization/rotation-favorable shear aside, persistent dense cloud
cover will tend to hinder insolation, which will in turn dampen
upward parcel accelerations and the overall thermodynamic
environment. stronger forcing for ascent will also be focused north
of the region, with neutral if not rising upper heights by late
afternoon/early evening.

these offsetting factors suggest the severe risk should remain very
localized and limited today, although sufficient buoyancy amidst
strong shear will pose at least a conditional/isolated severe risk
mainly in the form of locally damaging winds and some tornado risk,
primarily through the early/mid part of the afternoon.

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note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 0100z