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spc ac 171629

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1129 am cdt wed aug 17 2022

valid 171630z - 181200z

...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening from east tx to the lower ms valley and north
fl...southern az...and the western dakotas...

...summary...
isolated damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening from
east texas across the lower mississippi valley to north florida,
southern arizona, and the western dakotas.

...lower ms valley to north fl this afternoon/evening...
a remnant mcv will move east-southeastward from ar to ms/al this
afternoon, roughly along and just north of an outflow-reinforced
front from the ar/la border across central ms to southern al.
strong surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints well into the
70s will boost mlcape to near 3000 j/kg this afternoon along and
south of the front/outflow, and additional thunderstorm development
is expected by mid afternoon. the surface boundaries that will
focus storm initiation will lie along the southwest fringe of the
20-30 kt midlevel flow, which will support multicell clusters.
precipitation loading with the strong buoyancy, in combination with
dcape near or above 1000 j/kg, will support isolated wind damage
with downbursts this afternoon/evening. otherwise, isolated strong
storms will also be possible across north fl, primarily with sea
breeze and outflow interactions.

...southern az this afternoon/evening...
to the west of a remnant tropical low over northern mexico, midlevel
east-northeast flow will strengthen some through this evening over
southern az. this will favor convective clusters moving
southwestward from the higher terrain to the lower deserts, where
strong surface heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will
contribute to moderate buoyancy and weakening convective inhibition.
typical steep low-level lapse rates and substantial precipitation
loading will favor hybrid microbursts capable of producing isolated
strong-severe outflow winds.

...western dakotas this afternoon/evening...
some convection is ongoing late this morning over the northern high
plains, in advance of a weak midlevel trough moving over northeast
mt. the convection is expected to increase some later this
afternoon as it encounters a deeper mixed boundary layer, when there
will be the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts.

..thompson/wendt.. 08/17/2022

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note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 2000z