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spc ac 080501

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1101 pm cst tue dec 07 2021

valid 081200z - 091200z severe thunderstorm areas forecast...

severe thunderstorm probabilities are low across the contiguous
united states today and tonight.


a large-scale upper trough extending from the upper great lakes
toward the deep south will pivot eastward to the lower great lakes
and southeast u.s. coast by late afternoon. at the surface, a cold
front is forecast to extend from southern sc/ga to the northern gulf
of mexico this morning, sagging south/southeast into northern fl by
early evening. while a moist warm sector will be in place ahead of
the front across far southern ga/northern fl, poor midlevel lapse
rates and limited surface heating will preclude strong
destabilization. nevertheless, strong effective shear magnitudes
greater than 35 kt are forecast. this could aid in the development
of a couple of briefly stronger cells, especially if greater
destabilization can occur. some gusty winds could accompany these
storms, but overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to
include probabilities at this time.

..leitman/weinman.. 12/08/2021

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note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z