spc ac 140030
day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0730 pm cdt mon oct 13 2025
valid 140100z - 141200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across
south-central coastal california...
...summary...
locally damaging winds are possible late tonight along parts of
south-central coastal california.
...01z update...
strong upper low is currently located off the northern ca coast,
just southwest of eka. this feature is moving south as a 100+kt
500mb jet digs along the back side of this trough. later tonight,
left exit region of the jet max will approach the southern ca coast
and this should encourage low-topped convection along the cold
front. forecast soundings suggest only a few hundred j/kg mucape can
be expected in advance of the front as lapse rates will only be on
the order of 6 c/km. strong 0-6km shear favors the potential for
updraft organization, thus low severe probabilities for wind, and
perhaps a brief weak tornado will continue overnight.
..darrow.. 10/14/2025
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note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 0600z