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spc ac 250047

day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0747 pm cdt sat aug 24 2019

valid 250100z - 251200z

...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms western and
central ks into northern ok...

...summary...
the greatest severe-storm threat this evening into tonight is from
central and western kansas into northern oklahoma, with severe wind,
damaging hail and a few tornadoes possible.

...ks and ok vicinity this evening and tonight...
a mid-level low/shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery this
evening will slowly move eastward across ks through early sunday
morning. an associated mid-level cold pocket and a moist boundary
layer has resulted in a moderate buoyancy (1500 j/kg mlcape) per the
dodge city evening raob. models show storm development to increase
primarily after sunset across western/central ks as a southerly llj
strengthens. upscale growth into an eventual cluster or two is
expected over ks before moving southeast into ok late tonight into
early sunday morning. hail/wind will be the primary risks with the
activity this evening into the overnight hours.

...nd this evening...
a surface trough located near the nd/mt border is serving as a focus
for thunderstorm development this evening. adequate instability
east of the surface trough may foster a couple of strong storms this
evening before gradual boundary layer stabilization limits overall
storm intensity by late evening.

..smith.. 08/25/2019

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note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 0600z