spc ac 270059
day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0759 pm cdt fri jul 26 2024
valid 270100z - 271200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of the
dakotas and northwest mn...northeast nv into western
ut...south-central/southeast az...
...summary...
isolated severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of
the dakotas into northwest minnesota, great basin, and arizona.
...northern high plains into eastern nd and northwest mn...
a few strong storms have developed from eastern nd into northwest
mn, in the vicinity of a weak cold front. mlcape of 2000-3000 j/kg
and effective shear of 30-40 kt could support a supercell or two
through the evening, with a threat of hail, isolated damaging gusts,
and possibly a tornado. see mcd 1714 for more information.
farther southwest, high-based convection is ongoing across parts of
the northern high plains, which could pose a threat of isolated
strong to severe gusts through the evening. elevated convection may
increase later tonight and spread northeastward along/north of the
cold front from northern sd into eastern nd and northwest mn, which
could pose a threat of gusty winds and some hail.
...central into southeast az...
occasional strong storms have been noted from central into southeast
az through the afternoon, mainly in closer proximity to the higher
terrain. multiple areas of outflow are spreading southward, though
with rather strong mlcinh in place, potential for substantial
development into the lower elevations is uncertain. some threat for
strong to isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out through the
evening, though confidence is low.
...great basin...
isolated strong storms remain possible this evening across parts of
west-central/northwest ut. mlcape of around 500 j/kg and effective
shear around 30 kt were noted on the 00z slc sounding, and briefly
organized storms could pose a threat of isolated strong/severe gusts
and small to near-severe hail. another round of convection is
possible later tonight from northeast nv into western ut, in advance
of an approaching shortwave trough. a residual well-mixed boundary
layer could support locally gusty winds with this later convection.
..dean.. 07/27/2024
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note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 0600z