spc ac 290602
day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0102 am cdt tue apr 29 2025
valid 291200z - 301200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of
west tx into southwest ok...and for parts of the ohio valley and
lower great lakes...
...summary...
scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath
from the lower great lakes to the southern high plains, mainly
during the afternoon to evening on tuesday. corridors of greater
threat are expected over the upper ohio valley/lower great lakes and
in parts of west texas into southwest oklahoma.
...synopsis...
a deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward across
the great lakes into southeast canada today. a deepening surface low
will move across quebec during the day, as an attendant cold front
moves across the great lakes, ohio valley, and northeast. to the
west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will
move very slowly eastward across the four corners/southwest. a weak
surface low is expected to remain nearly stationary near the tx
trans-pecos region. a cold front initially moving southward into the
southern plains will tend to slow down with time, with its position
becoming modulated by repeated rounds of convection.
...ohio valley into the lower great lakes...
some uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of overnight
convection into the start of the d1/tuesday period. however, most
guidance suggests that, despite weakening midlevel lapse rates,
moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of the front from the
ohio valley into parts of the lower great lakes. any ongoing morning
convection may intensify as it moves east-northeastward, with
additional development expected along/ahead of the front this
afternoon.
strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm
clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded
supercells. scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some
potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any
organized clusters or linear segments develop. 35-50 kt in the
850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some
supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. isolated hail could
also accompany any persistent supercell structures.
...west tx into the ozarks...
multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the southern
plains in the vicinity of the surface front, with widely scattered
diurnal development also possible along the southward trailing
dryline into the permian basin vicinity. strong midlevel flow east
of the southwest trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for
storm organization, within a moderate to strongly unstable
environment near/south of the front. occasional supercells will be
possible, with a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts,
and a few tornadoes. one or more clusters are likely to develop and
spread eastward, which could provide localized swaths of more
concentrated strong/severe gusts. the favored corridor of any such
clusters remains somewhat uncertain, with the front expected to
gradually sag south with time.
..dean/weinman.. 04/29/2025
click to get wuus01 ptsdy1 product
note: the next day 1 outlook is scheduled by 1300z