spc ac 140555
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1255 am cdt tue apr 14 2026
valid 151200z - 161200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the southern plains to the middle mississippi valley and across
eastern ohio into pennsylvania...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of
the southern plains toward the great lakes on wednesday afternoon
and evening.
...synopsis...
a shortwave upper trough will eject from the central plains to the
great lakes on wednesday. a swath of enhanced southwesterly
deep-layer flow will extend from the southern/central plains to the
great lakes/midwest ahead of this feature. the southern extent of
the upper trough will move more slowly east, from the southern
rockies to the southern high plains. at the surface, low pressure is
forecast to be in the vicinity of the mid-mo valley/southeast ne
wednesday morning, and will shift east/northeast along a warm front
across ia/southern wi/northern il through evening. a trailing cold
front will move across the upper midwest and great lakes vicinity
during the nighttime hours as the surface low continue to progress
northeast into ontario. further south, a dryline will extend
south/southwest across eastern ks into western ok and west-central
tx. a seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead
of these surface features, focusing severe thunderstorm potential
during the afternoon and evening. a warm moist and unstable airmass
will extend eastward across portions of the upper ohio
valley/northeast.
...mo valley to lake michigan vicinity...
convection is likely to be ongoing across parts of the region
wednesday morning. as a result, uncertainty exists regarding airmass
recovery and evolution of severe potential wednesday
afternoon/evening. persistent southwesterly flow and warm advection
ahead of the surface low will maintain a moist airmass. convection
should redevelop by late afternoon/evening near the surface low and
along a surface boundary extending from eastern ia to near the il/wi
border. where heating can occur in the wake of early day convection,
mlcape around 1000-2000 j/kg should develop. supercell wind profiles
are evident in forecast soundings, especially near the surface low
where srh will be enhanced. initial cells may pose a risk for hail.
tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given aforementioned
concerns about boundary-layer impacts from early day convection.
however, at least low potential should exist near the surface low
and warm front/outflow. a corridor of higher tornado probabilities
may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in mesoscale
details and boundary layer recovery increases. during the evening,
upscale growth into an eastward-advancing line is expected as a
surface cold front begins to move east across the region, and
damaging winds will be possible.
...southern plains...
isolated supercells are forecast to develop along the dryline in ok
into eastern ks/ and eventually portions of mo. mid to upper 60s f
dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8 c/km) will
support 2000-3000 j/kg mlcape by afternoon. some weak capping is
noted around 850 mb, which may limit storm coverage in the absence
of stronger large-scale ascent. nevertheless, elongated/straight
hodographs above 2-3 km within a favorable thermodynamic environment
suggests large to very large hail will be possible with storms that
develop. a couple of tornadoes also will be possible given modestly
enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs and around 150
m2/s2 srh within a narrow corridor near the dryline.
...upper ohio valley toward the northeast...
fast deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will overspread a moistening
low-level boundary layer. strong heating will support steepening
low-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support
midlevel lapse rates near 7 c/km. this will foster moderate
destabilization during the afternoon, promoting isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development. damaging wind gusts and isolated
hail will be possible with this activity into the evening.
..leitman.. 04/14/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z