spc ac 221709
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1109 am cst thu jan 22 2026
valid 231200z - 241200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible friday into
friday night in a corridor across the texas big bend into central
texas.
...discussion...
a confluent mid-level regime will generally be maintained
across and east of the rockies through this period, downstream of
amplified split flow across the central/eastern pacific into far
western north america. although models continue to indicate that
peak surface pressures within the center of initially prominent,
cold surface ridging will begin to fall while it slowly shifts east
of the missouri valley, appreciable modification of the arctic air
will be slow, and it is likely to continue surging southward across
the remainder of the southern great plains, through much of south
central and southwestern texas by late friday night.
the leading edge of this air mass is also forecast to advance
further offshore of the southern mid atlantic coast, but slower
southward through the eastern gulf coast states and lower
mississippi valley. models indicate that this will occur beneath a
broad building mid-level ridge east of the rio grande valley into
the southeast, downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the
international border into the northern u.s. rockies/great plains and
a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern
pacific.
there is notable continuing spread concerning the eastward
acceleration of the southern perturbation, generally toward baja,
friday through friday night. however, an increasingly moist and
strengthening downstream southerly return flow still appears
probable across and north of the lower rio grande valley and texas
coastal areas, particularly during the latter half of the period.
...southern great plains across/northeast of red river valley...
forecast soundings and other model output continue to indicate that
lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to
thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least very weak to weak
conditional instability in a sizable swath from the northern mexican
plateau across the southern great plains, including north and
northeast of the red river valley. however, particularly with
north-northeastward extent, above the southward surging cold surface
air, these same soundings generally exhibit little in the way of
convective instability, with profiles tending to becoming saturated
while also warming aloft. so the extent of potential for convective
development capable of producing lightning remains unclear friday
through friday night.
modestly steeper mid-level lapse rates, and perhaps better potential
for weak thunderstorm activity, may remain confined to a corridor
across the texas big bend into edwards plateau, and adjacent
portions of central texas, where mid/upper support for convective
development may be aided by a short wave perturbation emanating from
the subtropical eastern pacific.
..kerr.. 01/22/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0700z