spc ac 291717
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1217 pm cdt sun mar 29 2026
valid 301200z - 311200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of
the upper mississippi valley into lower michigan...
...summary...
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the upper mississippi river valley to lower michigan late monday
night into early tuesday morning.
...synopsis and discussion...
a low-amplitude but intense shortwave trough will move across the
northern rockies during the day monday, and will move into the
northern plains through 12z tuesday, with height falls arriving late
into the upper ms valley/great lakes.
at the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern plains
during they day, and will move into ia/southwest wi area by tuesday
morning. east of the low, a quasi-stationary front will extend
across wi and lower mi, with mid to upper 50s f dewpoints to the
south. meanwhile, a cold front will move to a southeast mn to
western ks line by 12z tuesday.
though capping will inhibit development at least through 00z,
increasing theta-e advection along with the 40-50 kt 850 mb jet will
lead to lift along/north of the stationary front, with isolated hail
possible as far north as northern wi/lower mi. other isolated
development may occur south of this boundary, depending on the
degree of elevated cin, from ia into il. hail would be the most
likely threat.
late in the period and into tuesday morning, lift will be strongest
near the surface low, and scattered storms producing both hail and
locally damaging gusts will be possible given the dry sub-cloud
layer and steep lapse rates aloft.
..jewell.. 03/29/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z