spc ac 201720
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1120 am cst fri feb 20 2026
valid 211200z - 221200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from portions of
the northern gulf coast states to the southern carolinas....
...summary...
thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern gulf and
south atlantic coast states saturday and saturday night. a few
stronger storms capable of damaging gusts and a brief tornado are
possible.
...discussion...
an initially low-amplitude zonal flow regime over the conus is
forecast to amplify considerably as a shortwave trough over the
lower ms valley deepens while moving into the southeast. a stalled
frontal boundary will be in place from southern north carolina
southwestward toward the northern gulf coast. a surface low will
develop along this frontal boundary during the day on saturday in
response to the amplifying mid-level trough before moving quickly
out to sea by sunday morning. sufficient moisture and ascent will
likely support widely scattered thunderstorms with some potential
for damaging gusts and a brief tornado over parts of the southeast
and southern carolinas saturday and saturday night.
...northeastern gulf coast states and the southern carolinas...
early morning elevated storms should gradually become surface-based
as they track east/southeastward ahead of a subtle wave low along
the front. south of the front, modest diurnal heating amid mid to
upper 60s f dewpoints will result in an environment with up to 500
to perhaps 1000 j/kg of most unstable cape. driven mostly by
low-level warm air advection, mid-level lapse rates will remain
generally poor (~6.5 c/km) which in combination with the lagged
primary upper forcing may tend to limit initial updraft intensity.
as the upper trough amplifies, the low will gradually deepen,
potentially serving as a local focus for more sustained convection
in southern ga and far southern sc. long straight hodographs largely
parallel to the frontal zone could allow a few more organized
line/clusters saturday afternoon/evening. given the strong
deep-layer shear and some buoyancy from heating, damaging gusts and
a brief tornado are possible. forecast guidance shows a few stronger
storms in this region through saturday evening. should coverage and
overall intensity increase, higher wind probabilities may be needed
in future outlooks.
farther west, the surging front will likely undercut convection
across the western flank of the warm sector as the surface low
deepens. however, stronger heating and relatively larger buoyancy
suggests isolated strong gusts remain possible with any stronger
storms able to persist. convection should gradually diminish as it
moves southeastward toward the gulf coast and fl panhandle into
early sunday.
..lyons.. 02/20/2026
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