spc ac 051653
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1153 am cdt sun apr 05 2026
valid 061200z - 071200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on monday across
the florida peninsula, parts of the southwest, and portions of
oregon, but no severe threat is forecast.
...synopsis...
an upper trough will persist across the eastern u.s. on monday.
meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate across the
southwest, while another shortwave trough overspreads the pacific
northwest late in the period.
at the surface, a cold front will extend across north-central fl
into the gulf. high pressure will build over the upper midwest, and
a dry/stable boundary layer will envelop much of the conus, aside
from fl. a seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the surface cold
front will support modest destabilization across the fl peninsula
during the afternoon/early evening. isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical
shear will preclude severe potential.
additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of
the southwest. steep midlevel lapse rates amid increasing midlevel
moisture and weak instability should be sufficient for isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development as the upper shortwave trough
overspreads the region. a few weak thunderstorms may also develop
across portions of oregon late in the afternoon and evening.
midlevel moistening is expected as height falls and steepening
midlevel lapse rates overspread the area with the approach of an
upper shortwave trough. severe storms are not expected in these
areas given modest vertical shear and weak instability.
..leitman.. 04/05/2026
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