spc ac 250548
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1248 am cdt mon may 25 2026
valid 261200z - 271200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
southwest texas...
...summary...
scattered severe storms will be possible across western texas into
southeastern new mexico tuesday afternoon and evening. across this
region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be
possible.
...synopsis...
the pattern on d2/tuesday will include a deepening mid-level low
across the pacific northwest and height rises with a building high
downstream across the central/northern us. a shortwave with multiple
embedded vorticity maximas will move across texas. this will be the
focus of scattered severe thunderstorm development by the afternoon.
...eastern new mexico and western texas...
as forcing for ascent increases across texas tuesday afternoon,
widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the davis
mountains to the edwards plateau and to the southern permian basin.
moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates are
forecast across the region, with increasing deep layer shear to
around 30-40 kts. mode will likely include a few supercells and
multi-cell clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe
wind gusts. forecast soundings indicate low-level srh may increase
through the late afternoon/evening, which could support some
increase in tornado potential.
through time, cells are progged to cluster and move downstream into
portions of south texas. should cells be able to maintain cold pool
organization, damaging wind potential may extend to the southern
texas coast. the slight risk remains unchanged but a minor eastward
expansion was given to the marginal risk to account for this
potential.
...montana...
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected with the upper trough
across portions of southern idaho into montana. modest instability
and strengthening deep layer shear amid deeply mixed profiles may
allow for a few stronger storms with potential for marginally severe
hail and severe gusts.
..thornton.. 05/25/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z