spc ac 230600
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0100 am cdt thu apr 23 2026
valid 241200z - 251200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms parts of the
southern plains into the lower mississippi valley...
...summary...
scatteed severe thunderstorms are possible friday from the southern
plains into the lower mississippi valley. large hail and damaging
winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible.
isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower
ohio valley as well.
... synopsis ...
broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and
western us as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern
states. in the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the
southern us, convective evolution will be driven primarily by
remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader
cyclonic flow.
... southern plains into the lower mississippi valley ...
convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of oklahoma into
arkansas and missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely
tied to a convectively augmented cold front. this activity may still
be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the
period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the
low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away
from the region.
the primary severe threat is expected to develop from afternoon into
the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries. current guidance
suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the i-40
corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains.
notably, the hrrr is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and
west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/00z href.
by afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a
moderately to strongly unstable airmass (sbcape values in the
2000-3000 j/kg range) from central/east texas northward toward the
boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent
into mississippi and alabama. deep-layer shear will remain modest
across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized
multicells and occasional transient supercells.
thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern oklahoma into
arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. initial
storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind
gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. however,
localized enhancements along boundaries or any mcv could support a
brief tornado risk.
with time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should
support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear mcs
structures. these systems should move east-southeast into northern
louisiana and central mississippi through the afternoon and evening
hours. while the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind
threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a
corridor of damaging wind gusts.
farther west into central and eastern texas, isolated convection may
occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the
east. storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent,
but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment
could produce large hail.
... portions of the ohio valley ...
a separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon across portions of the eastern indiana and western ohio
in the wake of earlier convection. modest destabilization should
occur with perhaps up to 1000 j/kg of sbcape. although the low-level
jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.
..marsh.. 04/23/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z