spc ac 290452
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1152 pm cdt tue apr 28 2026
valid 301200z - 011200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms late thursday
afternoon and evening across parts of the rio grande near the texas
big bend...
...summary...
a couple of strong storms may impact the rio grande river vicinity
near the texas big bend late thursday afternoon and evening, perhaps
accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail.
...discussion...
it still appears that an elongated area of lower mid-level heights
will continue a slow east-southeastward progression across much of
the upper mississippi valley through northern atlantic seaboard,
with an embedded cyclonic circulation redeveloping southeastward
through the great lakes region. in its wake, split westerlies
likely will remain confluent across and east of the rockies, as a
short wave perturbation emerges from the subtropical eastern
pacific.
there appears a much better consensus within latest model output
concerning the inland progression of this perturbation, which is now
generally forecast to accelerate across northern mexico and adjacent
portions of the u.s. southwest, toward the texas big bend vicinity
thursday through thursday night. downstream short wave ridging is
forecast to gradually shift east of the southern rockies, across the
southern great plains through gulf coast, while subtropical ridging
centered across southern mexico undergoes further suppression.
in lower levels, to the east of the rockies, cool surface ridging
will be maintained across much of the great plains and
mississippi valley into southeast. most guidance now indicates that
the frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass will make
slow, but steady, southward progress into and across the texas big
bend and hill country, immediate upper texas/louisiana coastal
vicinity, and northern florida.
forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection, downstream of the approaching subtropical perturbation,
may contribute to multiple rounds of thunderstorm development
above the stable surface-based air across parts of the permian basin
and texas south plains through much of central texas by late
thursday night. based on latest model output, including rapid
refresh and nam forecast soundings, thermodynamic profiles seem
unlikely to support severe hail. one exception might develop within
moist upslope flow into a more strongly heated environment across
the higher terrain near and south of the texas big bend. beneath
moderate to strong mid-level flow, the initiation of a couple of
supercells appears possible. however, this activity is expected to
weaken as it acquires less unstable updraft inflow to the east of
the higher terrain.
otherwise, the front might provide a general focus for widely
scattered thunderstorm activity near the gulf coast vicinity, while
destabilization beneath cool mid-level air across the great basin
into southern rockies supports scattered, mostly diurnal
thunderstorm activity.
..kerr.. 04/29/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z