spc ac 111730
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1230 pm cdt sat apr 11 2026
valid 121200z - 131200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the southern plains...
...summary...
isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central plains into the upper midwest on sunday.
...synopsis...
on sunday, an upper-level low will move inland across the west coast
while ridging continues across the eastern us. broad southwesterly
flow will propagate across the rockies and into the plains, with
several shortwaves troughs pivoting through the plains into the
upper midwest. this pattern will favor lee troughing in the lee of
the rockies. across the southern/central plains, southerly surface
flow will usher in moisture northward all the way from the southern
plains into the upper mid-west ahead of surface trough/dryline
oriented across eastern ne into central ks, arcing south/southwest
into northwest ok and western tx.
it is likely that widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be
ongoing at the start of the d2/sunday period across tx/ok and across
central/northern mn. some re-intensification of convection will be
possible across portions of central/eastern texas. additional
activity is expected to develop by the afternoon in the vicinity of
the dryline and across the sierra madre in mexico.
...central/southern plains...
in the wake of morning convection across portions of western texas
into the ok/tx panhandles, strong southwesterly flow will continue
to advect warm moist boundary layer conditions and a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates. href guidance shows persistent mid to high
level clouds remaining in place across the region through the early
afternoon. it is likely that with mixing/heating some breaks in this
cloud cover will allow for sheltered heating and air mass recovery.
most guidance suggests mlcape around 1000-1500 j/kg will be common
from western texas into western/central ok and southern ks. given
the nebulous forcing, convective initiation in the afternoon will
likely be tied initially to the dryline circulation from western
texas into western oklahoma and high terrain in mexico. generally
linear hodographs and the steep lapse rate profiles will support
risk for large to very large hail and strong to severe winds.
additional more isolated development may occur across the dryline in
ks/ne. with any supercells that can maintain a semi-discrete mode,
perhaps a tornado or two will be possible.
...upper midwest...
re-development of thunderstorm activity across the upper midwest
remains less certain sunday afternoon. the mid-level wave will
advance eastward with a warm front lifting into canada and surface
low tracking northeast. most cam guidance produces little to no
thunderstorm activity likely owing to the forcing shifting eastward
too quickly. href calibrated thunder signals also remain low. the
environment will be conditionally unstable, with mlcape around
1000-2000 j/kg overlapping favorable low-level and deep layer shear
profiles. should an isolated storm or two occur, the potential will
remain for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado.
..thornton.. 04/11/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z