spc ac 031730
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1231 pm cdt wed jun 03 2026
valid 041200z - 051200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the
northern high plains across south dakota and northern nebraska into
southwest minnesota...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging
winds are possible from parts of the northern high plains into lower
elevations of the northern and central plains thursday afternoon
into night. more isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible in parts of the upper midwest and upper great
lakes.
...synopsis...
several weak mid-level perturbations will exist within mostly zonal
flow across the northern conus on thursday with weak ridging across
the eastern conus. at the surface, high pressure will result in
stable conditions across much of the eastern conus with weak lee
troughing across the central high plains.
...northern and central plains...
a mid-level shortwave trough across the northern rockies on thursday
morning will cross into the plains by the afternoon. as this occurs,
moderate mid-level flow and weak height falls will overspread a
moderately unstable environment across the plains. as a surface low
moves slowly southeast from eastern wyoming into northeast colorado
during the day, upslope flow will strengthen to its north. initial
storms within this upslope flow regime will likely be supercellular
given 40 to 50 knots of shear and steep mid-level lapse rates with
weak low-level shear. some tornado threat may exist within this zone
along the front where low-level shear will be somewhat enhanced.
however, this more favorable region should be localized and
conditional on a storm in the right location.
additional storms may exist farther east along the front where
moderate instability and weak to moderate shear exists. large hail
will be the initial threat, however, as storms from this area and
storms from the west congeal into the evening, a greater severe wind
threat is expected to materialize.
...central kansas into southeast nebraska and vicinity...
guidance has recently trended stronger with mid-level flow across
kansas and southern nebraska. as a result, sufficient shear may
exist for multicellular/marginal supercell storms capable of large
hail and severe wind gusts. the marginal risk has been expanded
across kansas and into far northern oklahoma to reflect this threat.
...upper midwest...
weak to potentially moderate instability is expected to develop
across portions of minnesota into northern wisconsin south of a
frontal zone. 30 to 40 knots of mid-level flow is expected to
overspread this region with weak height falls through the day. the
primary limiting factor to a greater severe threat will be modest
lapse rates and cloud cover. multicells and occasional supercells
will be possible within this region with a primary threat for large
hail and severe wind gusts.
..bentley.. 06/03/2026
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