spc ac 191730
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1230 pm cdt fri jun 19 2026
valid 201200z - 211200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of the central plains...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central
plains vicinity from saturday afternoon into saturday evening. large
to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are
possible.
...central plains...
with the approach of the modest shortwave trough, a lee cyclone will
deepen through the afternoon near the colorado/kansas border. mid
60s f dewpoints are possible in parts of the central high plains
with upper 60s f dewpoints more probable into central/eastern
kansas. convection is expected to develop within the higher terrain
of southeast wyoming/southwest south dakota and within the lee
trough/cyclone by mid/late afternoon. earlier thunderstorm
development does appear possible within weak warm advection near the
northward lifting surface boundary in central/eastern nebraska.
40-50 kt of effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will
promote initial supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe
winds, and tornadoes. the degree of tornado risk is somewhat
uncertain as there could be a relatively quick transition to linear
modes. discrete storms that can persist into the evening would
encounter greater low-level shear as the low-level jet strengthens.
a strong tornado would be possible especially near the surface
boundary where surface winds will remain backed. qlcs circulations
will remain possible within linear modes as well. as linear/bowing
segments develop during the evening, the risk for severe wind gusts
(some 75+ mph) will increase. the southern extent and eastern extent
of the most intense activity is a bit uncertain, but some risk will
remain even into the overnight on account of the very moist airmass
and limited mlcin.
...northern utah into far southeast idaho...
widely scattered to scattered convection is possible along the
southern fringe of the upper-level trough. strong heating and
limited moisture will promote large temperature-dewpoint spreads at
the surface. convection will be capable of severe wind gusts.
..wendt.. 06/19/2026
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