spc ac 120557
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1257 am cdt fri jun 12 2026
valid 131200z - 141200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern
kansas into west-central illinois...
...summary...
one or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across
parts of the central great plains and lower missouri valley vicinity
saturday afternoon through saturday night, accompanied by potential
for strong, damaging wind gusts. large to very large hail may also
occur early in storm development from kansas into iowa.
...mid-ms valley into ks/ok...
generally low-amplitude mid/upper flow will extend across the
central/southern plains to the mid-ms valley area initially saturday
morning as the region is sandwiched between an upper trough over the
upper midwest and the northern periphery of upper ridging across the
southeast. as the upper midwest trough modestly deepens and pivots
east, some strengthening of mid and upper westerly flow is forecast.
at the surface, southerly low-level flow will transport rich
boundary layer moisture northward across ok/ks into the mid-ms
valley ahead of northeast to southwest oriented cold front. steep
midlevel lapse rates atop this moist airmass will support a corridor
of moderate to strong instability (2500-4000 j/kg mlcape) across ks,
mo into southern ia and perhaps il.
some uncertainty remains regarding possible ongoing convection
across parts of northeast ok/southeast ks early saturday morning in
the form of a decaying mcs from the day 1/friday period. it is
possible an mcv associated with this feature could move across mo
during the day and pose some severe risk toward the ms river by
afternoon. however, confidence in this scenario is low given low
predictability of mesoscale feature at this time scale.
confidence is somewhat higher that convection will develop during
the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface front from eastern ks
into ia. initial supercells appear possible. low-level shear will be
modest, but given rich boundary layer moisture and strong
instability, a couple of tornadoes are possible. more likely, a
large to very large hail risk will be possible with initial
supercells given steep midlevel lapse rates, strong instability and
elongated/straight forecast hodographs. as the surface front
develops southeast during the late afternoon into the evening, one
or more bowing mcss are expected to develop, posing a risk for
scattered severe/damaging winds (isolated gusts to 70-80 mph will be
possible). this activity should continued southeast across the lower
mo valley toward the ozarks vicinity through evening/overnight. the
northward extent of greater severe potential is uncertain, and this
portions of the outlook may need further refinement in subsequent
outlooks.
...lake michigan vicinity...
isolated thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and early
evening along the advancing cold front. cool temperatures aloft will
support steep midlevel lapse rates atop low 60s f boundary layer
moisture. this will foster mlcape values around 1500-2000 j/kg.
isolated hail and gusty winds will be possible with these storms.
...southern plains vicinity...
a surface dryline will extend from southwest ks into eastern nm on
saturday. forecast guidance depicts a shortwave impulse ejecting
across the southern rockies ahead of a western u.s. upper trough. as
this occurs, isolated to scattered storms will develop near the
surface boundary. this activity will likely be higher-based given
deep mixing and strong heating into the 90s. isolated strong wind
gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though a few
instances of hail also are possible.
..leitman.. 06/12/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z