spc ac 251727
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1127 am cst wed feb 25 2026
valid 261200z - 271200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the southeast on
thursday, but severe weather is not expected.
...discussion...
an expansive area of northwest flow aloft will extend from the
rockies to the east coast on thursday. high pressure will be in
place from the central plains across the oh valley and into the
northeast, with a cold front slowly pushing south into the gulf
coast states. a leading wave will affect the appalachians into the
northeast during the day, with a secondary wave moving into the
southern plains late.
during the afternoon, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will exist
ahead of this front, from eastern tx across la, ms, al, and into ga.
daytime heating will bring temperatures into the upper 60s to lower
70s, resulting in maximum cape values into the 500-750 j/kg range.
while mid and high level winds will be strong with 50+ kt effective
shear, winds in the low levels and convergence will be weak.
widespread rain will be likely from northern al and ga into the
carolinas north of the boundary where a few hundred j/kg elevated
cape will be present. small/non-severe hail cannot be ruled out with
this activity. given conditionally favorable shear, cooler
temperatures aloft and influence of the upper wave, large hail could
occur should stronger-than-forecast instability develop near/north
of the boundary.
to the south, isolated widely-scattered thunderstorms may develop
during the afternoon across ms/al/ga near the front and perhaps
across the warm sector at peak heating. forecast soundings indicate
areas of subsidence aloft as winds veer to westerly behind the lead
wave. given these factors, these storms are expected to be
non-severe.
..jewell.. 02/25/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0700z