spc ac 220540
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1240 am cdt mon apr 22 2019
valid 231200z - 241200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
southwest and central texas...
...summary...
thunderstorms associated with an isolated large hail and wind damage
threat are expected to develop across parts of texas on tuesday
afternoon and evening.
...southern plains...
an upper-level low will move slowly southeastward across northern
mexico on tuesday as west to southwest mid-level flow remains over
the southern plains. at the surface, a cold front will move
southeastward across west-central and north-central texas. the
airmass will moisten south of the front with surface dewpoints
reaching the mid to upper 60s f. in response, a pocket of moderate
instability is forecast to develop along and just south of the front
from del rio extending east-northeastward into the texas hill
country. thunderstorms are forecast to initiate and organize along
the front during the late afternoon where the models are showing
steep low to mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear.
for this reason, a severe threat is expected to develop across
southwest and central texas from the late afternoon into the
evening. supercells with large hail and wind damage will be
possible. organized multicells with damaging wind gusts and hail
appear likely in areas where mesoscale conditions become most
favorable.
...maximum risk by hazard...
tornado: 2% - marginal
wind: 15% - slight
hail: 15% - slight
..broyles.. 04/22/2019
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z