spc ac 211728
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1228 pm cdt tue jul 21 2026
valid 221200z - 231200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the
southern mid-atlantic...
...summary...
isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts across parts of the southern mid-atlantic. additional
thunderstorms are expected northward across new england, some of
which could produce locally strong wind gusts.
...synopsis...
the pattern on d2/wednesday will be characterized by upper-level
ridging across western us with a more progressive wave pattern
within a trough across the eastern us. a cold front will be located
roughly from the mid-atlantic south into the carolinas and western
tennessee. this will be the focus of thunderstorm development and
severe potential wednesday afternoon.
...mid-atlantic into new england...
morning cloud cover will extend across new england to the
mid-atlantic wednesday morning, which will likely temper heating and
destabilization with northern extent into new england. more filtered
heating through broken cloud cover in combination with moist
southerly flow should yield moderate instability across portions of
the southern mid-atlantic. this in combination with strong mid-level
flow and resulting strong deep layer shear will support potential
for a few organized storms/clusters capable of producing damaging
winds and perhaps a tornado. highest confidence in this potential
will extend from the carolinas to southern delaware, where strongest
heating is anticipated. strong deep layer shear will extend
northward into new england, which may support isolated stronger
storms with potential for damaging wind though instability becomes
less favorable further north.
...eastern colorado...
high based thunderstorms are expected to develop across the high
terrain in eastern colorado wednesday afternoon. marginally unstable
and deeply mixed profiles may support a few instances of strong to
severe wind. overall, weak deep layer shear profiles will likely
keep this threat too limited for probabilities to be included at
this time.
..thornton.. 07/21/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z