spc ac 270559
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1259 am cdt sat jun 27 2026
valid 281200z - 291200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms portions of north
dakota and northern minnesota...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern plains into
parts of the upper midwest on sunday. large hail and severe winds
are the primary hazards.
...synopsis...
the western u.s. trough will remain in place on sunday with an
amplifying upper ridge in the east. a surface low is expected to
develop within the central/northern high plains, though the location
is still uncertain. a surface boundary will be present from the
mid-atlantic through the ohio valley and mid mississippi valley.
...northern plains/upper midwest...
the forecast remains rather complex across these regions. convection
is generally expected to be ongoing during the early morning across
parts of eastern north dakota into northern minnesota. while this
activity is not expected to be particularly strong, it may modulate
the northward progression of a surface boundary. in the wake of the
morning activity, at least a narrow zone of moderate buoyancy
(2000-2500 j/kg mlcape) is expected to develop in central/eastern
north dakota. nebulous mid-level ascent casts some doubt on whether
storms will be able to form on an outflow boundary/surface trough.
should storms develop, they may only be surface based for a short
period if at all. 50+ kt of effective shear and sufficient mid-level
lapse rates will support some risk of large hail and severe winds.
during the evening/overnight, the surface low is expected to deepen
somewhere in the high plains. storm development is possible as this
occurs. where this occurs is still uncertain, but the nebraska
panhandle into western south dakota are currently the most probable.
if convection can develop, it will most likely be elevated in
nature. the strong low-level jet would likely support some eastward
progress. damaging winds and isolated large hail could occur with
this activity.
...southern mid-atlantic...
guidance continues to depict an mcv moving through the region. the
timing and intensity of this feature has been variable in the last
couple of model cycles. overall deep-layer flow will be weak outside
of the influence of the mcv. given the moist airmass in place,
widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of
this feature. damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly where
storms can cluster.
..wendt.. 06/27/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z