spc ac 271734
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1234 pm cdt mon jul 27 2026
valid 281200z - 291200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the southern
mid atlantic into the carolinas and parts of the appalachians...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are
possible from the southern mid-atlantic into the carolinas and parts
of the appalachians tuesday into tuesday evening. a tornado threat
may develop from southeast virginia into eastern north carolina.
isolated severe wind gusts and large hail may occur in the central
high plains.
...southern mid atlantic / appalachians / carolinas...
an upper trough will gradually deepen and move southeastward across
the mid atlantic, with the left-front quadrant of the upper jet
moving across va and nc. at the surface, low pressure will deepen
ahead of a cold front, with wind shift roughly from eastern pa into
central va and nc during the afternoon.
a moist and unstable air mass will develop across the region, and
shear profiles will become increasingly favorable for supercells.
the most favorable combination of shear and instability looks to be
from parts of eastern va into east-central/northeast nc. here, 850
mb winds will increase out of the southwest to around 30 kt, with
effective srh possibly into the 200-300 m2/s2 range. a tornado or
two is possible, with perhaps a transition to bows producing
damaging winds. this area will be watched closely into the day 1
period.
farther north and also within the surface trough, shear will be
weaker aloft. however, favorable low-level shear may yield a brief
tornado as well into eastern pa/nj.
otherwise, additional storms are likely across the appalachians as
surface heating occurs beneath the relatively cool temperatures
aloft. low-level winds will be more veered in these areas, but long
hodographs and substantial instability will still favor hail and
locally damaging winds.
...central high plains...
strong heating will occur under the upper ridge, with a weak lee
trough developing. surface winds will back to easterly late in the
day and evening, which will increase upslope-flow and yield a
moderately unstable environment by afternoon with mlcape of
1500-2500 j/kg. this will support scattered thunderstorm development
along the high terrain within a kinematic environment featuring
30-35 kt westerly deep-layer shear. transient supercell structures
appear possible, which suggest some marginally severe hail potential
despite the warm mid-level temperatures. generally mixed-modes
should persist into the evening into eastern co and far western ne
with locally strong gusts.
..jewell.. 07/27/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z