spc ac 300541
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1141 pm cst mon dec 29 2025
valid 311200z - 011200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of new
year's day along coastal southern california.
...coastal southern ca...
a low-amplitude shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore
of coastal southern ca through 12z thursday. the compact mid-level
cold core might reach the channel islands, with generally slight
cooling farther east. this may be sufficient for charge separation
near the end of the period, as low-topped convection is expected to
increase overnight ahead of the trough. despite modest low-level
hodograph curvature, weak effective bulk shear amid a meager
buoyancy profile suggests convection should remain too
shallow/disorganized for an appreciable severe threat.
..grams.. 12/30/2025
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z