spc ac 111716
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1116 am cst wed feb 11 2026
valid 121200z - 131200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms are not expected on thursday.
...synopsis...
a deep, positively tilted upper trough is expected to extend from
the northern intermountain west southwestward off the central ca
coast and into the eastern pacific early thursday. this trough is
forecast to progress slowly southeastward throughout the day, while
trending towards a more neutral tilt as a strong shortwave trough
rounds its base. another embedded shortwave trough is expected to
move southward along the central ca coast before pivoting more
southeastward towards southern ca late thursday/early friday.
overall evolution of this system will likely result in troughing
from the western great basin into the west-central pacific by 12z
friday.
cooling mid-level temperatures are expected from the great basin
into the central rockies downstream of this deepening trough.
additionally, persistent southwesterly flow aloft will contribute to
some low-level moistening beneath these cooling mid-level
temperatures. combination of these factors will result in modest
buoyancy and deep/persistent enough updrafts for isolated lightning
flashes. highest coverage is expected across north-central ut.
surface ridging is expected across much of the central and eastern
conus early thursday, although a weak surface low will likely be
over southeast co. this low may deepen slightly throughout the day
while also dropping gradually southward in northeast nm and the
northwest tx panhandle. some modest moisture return is anticipated
east/southeast of this low across central/east tx and the lower ms
valley, with low 60s dewpoints forecast along the tx gulf coast by
friday morning. however, warm temperatures aloft will preclude deep
convection within this modifying airmass.
..mosier.. 02/11/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0700z