spc ac 221727
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1227 pm cdt wed oct 22 2025
valid 231200z - 241200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms in parts of
co/nm/ok/tx...
...summary...
isolated severe storms are possible from late afternoon thursday
into thursday night across parts of the southern great plains and
the southwest.
...synopsis...
a compact shortwave trough over the lower co valley will reach the
four corners vicinity before stalling early friday, as a separate
impulse moves across northern baja/gulf of ca. this will reinforce a
positive-tilt orientation to the broader trough and support only a
weak surface cyclone across nm into far west tx.
...tx trans-pecos to central ok...
while the overall synoptic pattern appears consistently forecast,
much spread exists across guidance with the degree of boundary-layer
moisture return northwestward from the tx coastal plain by late
afternoon/early evening thursday. the more aggressive spectrum would
support potential for a couple mesoscale corridors of greater severe
hail probabilities, one in the tx south plains and the other in the
south-central ok vicinity. a few surface-based supercells may
develop in both regimes, despite the presence of mid-level ridging
in ok early and greater mid-level height falls occurring thursday
night. the less aggressive/drier spectrum of guidance suggests
surface-based activity may be high-based with transient/weak
supercell structures evolving into a predominately messy cluster
mode, especially as elevated convective coverage increases greatly
with a strengthening low-level jet. a broad level 1-mrgl risk
appears to be the appropriate forecast at this time focused along
the convectively reinforced front from the permian basin to central
ok from late afternoon into thursday night.
...southern co to central nm...
the lobe of strong large-ascent attendant to the compact shortwave
trough will overspread the four corners by midday, supporting
widespread afternoon thunderstorms downstream across southern co
into northern nm. the mid-level speed max attendant to the trough
will be centered farther southeast across central nm. while buoyancy
will be weak, steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough
will support a corridor of favorable destabilization coincident with
at least moderate effective bulk shear. a few lower-end intensity
supercells should develop with marginally severe hail and locally
strong gusts as the primary threats.
..grams.. 10/22/2025
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z