spc ac 220636
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1236 am cst sat nov 22 2025
valid 231200z - 241200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of west texas into north-central texas...
...summary...
isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
northern texas to the rio grande on sunday. large hail is the
primary threat.
...synopsis...
a mid-level trough will move from the southwest to the central
plains on sunday. lee troughing is forecast along the high plains
during the day sunday with a weak cyclone likely to develop near the
oklahoma panhandle by 12z monday. a warm front will only slowly
advance north across texas during the day, but will advance north
more aggressively after 00z.
...west texas into north-central texas...
as the mid-level trough advances east on sunday, a low-level jet
will strengthen across texas. this will lead to increasing
isentropic ascent and thunderstorm coverage during the day. moderate
instability, paired with moderate shear and steepening mid-level
lapse rates may result in an environment which supports isolated
large hail from a few elevated supercells. however, stronger storm
coverage may be somewhat limited during the day.
greater coverage is anticipated sunday night as stronger height
falls overspread the southern plains. isolated large hail will be
the primary threat, but a few damaging wind gusts may be possible if
storms grow upscale and move into the surface-based warm sector late
in the period as it starts to move northward more quickly.
..bentley.. 11/22/2025
click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product
note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z