spc ac 160601
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0101 am cdt sat may 16 2026
valid 171200z - 181200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms central
nebraska to southwest minnesota...
...summary...
severe storms are expected sunday afternoon into sunday night from
portions of the central plains into the upper midwest. supercells
with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale
storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.
...synopsis...
a mid-level trough currently across the pacific northwest will
deepen d2/sunday, moving across great basin into the four corners
into early d3/monday. elevated convection will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period across portions of northern nebraska into
iowa. westerly flow will overspread the central/northern plains as a
lead shortwave moves across western kansas into nebraska through the
day before shifting into the upper midwest. a surface cyclone will
deepen across eastern colorado/western kansas with strong moist
southerly flow and mid 60s dew points extending across much of the
central and southern plains. thunderstorm development is expected by
the afternoon from a stationary boundary/warm front across central
nebraska southward to the dryline across central kansas and perhaps
as far south as the oklahoma/texas panhandles.
...ne to mn...
strong daytime heating and destabilization should occur behind
morning convection across nebraska into iowa through broken cloud
cover. better clearing will be possible across
southeastern/south-central nebraska where fewer clouds will be
present. overall, a broad corridor of mlcape around 2000-3000 j/kg
and strong deep layer shear should extend across southern nebraska
into western iowa just south of the warm front. strengthening
southerly 700-850 mb flow is expected through the afternoon, with a
low-level jet around 40-50 kts across central kansas into eastern
nebraska. by the afternoon, guidance suggests that supercells may
develop near the stationary front/warm front in eastern nebraska.
given the environment, these will be capable of large to very large
hail (some 2-3 inches), damaging wind, and a few tornadoes (some
strong). through time, convection will likely cluster and grow
upscale with a damaging wind threat continuing downstream into
southeast sd, northwest ia and southwest mn through sunday night.
...western ks to tx panhandles...
forcing for ascent will be weaker with southern extent into western
kansas/western oklahoma near the dryline. soundings across these
regions also indicate capping at the base of the eml, which may be
difficult to overcome. nonetheless, a few isolated supercells may
develop along the dryline as the low-level jet increases through the
evening. these will pose a risk for large to very large hail and
damaging winds.
..thornton.. 05/16/2026
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