spc ac 051732
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1132 am cst thu mar 05 2026
valid 061200z - 071200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms in eastern
ks/ok and western mo/ar...
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms separately in west
tx...
...summary...
scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
friday through friday night from parts of the southern great plains
to the midwest. the greatest potential for a couple strong tornadoes
and isolated very large hail is across eastern portions of
oklahoma/kansas and western portions of arkansas/missouri.
...synopsis...
broad upper trough over the west should split into two distinct
impulses by friday night. the leading shortwave trough should eject
from the four corners across the central great plains to the upper
mississippi valley, while a backside cutoff low evolves southward
over the lower co valley. lead cyclone should track from the western
ks vicinity across ia to the upper great lakes. the dryline should
mix towards central ok/tx through late afternoon. a surface cold
front will accelerate southeastward across the central/southern
great plains on the backside of the lead cyclone.
...central/southern great plains into the midwest...
overall forecast has substantial uncertainties as latest guidance
trends towards a more bimodal and less robust setup across the level
3-enh risk vicinity. the most probable signal is for initial mid to
late afternoon storm development to occur near the surface cyclone
track in ks across the adjacent mo valley. strong deep-layer shear
will support supercells near the immediate triple-point region and
downstream warm conveyor, with primary risks of large hail and a
couple tornadoes. but convection should grow upscale relatively
quickly along the surface warm front, as well as the accelerating
cold front. one elongated qlcs or a pair of qlcss may evolve during
the evening. the lead one should progress east-northeast towards the
lake mi vicinity with a threat for mainly damaging winds and a few
embedded tornadoes, along the northern periphery of the
surface-based instability plume. farther south, the cold frontal
qlcs should expand southwestward and progress more east-southeast. a
mix of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple embedded
tornadoes are plausible. but increasingly veered low-level winds
near the front should taper the threat overnight.
a separate region of low-level warm conveyor storm development is
evident downstream of the ok/tx dryline, mainly along a portion of
the red river towards the ozarks during the late afternoon to early
evening. low-level and deep-layer shear profiles will be
conditionally favorable for discrete supercells, amid a richly moist
boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates. with
near-neutral mid-level height falls and peripheral influence of the
mid-level jetlet farther to the west/northwest, confidence is below
average on longer-lived/stronger supercells becoming sustained. have
shifted the level 3-enh risk to be centered on this region, where
storm development at least appears increasingly probable on friday
night.
...west tx...
consensus of cam guidance indicates an overnight corridor of storm
development to the cool side of the accelerating cold front as it
impinges on the western lobe of the tx buoyancy plume. rather steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear could support
a corridor of elevated large hail. the undercutting nature of the
front suggests this corridor will remain spatially confined.
..grams.. 03/05/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0700z