spc ac 170549
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1149 pm cst mon feb 16 2026
valid 181200z - 191200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
widely scattered areas of low probabilistic potential for
thunderstorm development may evolve across the u.s. wednesday
through wednesday night, but any storms that do form are expected to
remain generally weak.
...discussion...
notable spread persists within the latest model output concerning
short wave (and related lower-level) developments within a cyclonic
regime evolving inland of the pacific coast through the mississippi
valley by wednesday.
in general, one initial perturbation and associated surface
troughing, pivoting through the upper midwest and adjacent great
lakes region by the beginning of this period, are still forecast to
undergo substantive weakening wednesday through wednesday night. it
is possible that a residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing
for ascent, coupled with limited moisture return, may maintain
sufficient strength to support continuing convective development
capable of producing lightning while spreading through the lower
great lakes vicinity into the day wednesday. this seems likely to
remain rooted above an initially stable boundary layer, with little
risk for severe weather before diminishing.
upstream, another fairly significant short wave perturbation is
forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern sierra nevada,
as another digs toward the oregon/northern california coast.
beneath strong mid-level cooling, models indicate that
boundary-layer warming will probably contribute to weak
destabilization supportive of convective development across the
eastern great basin through the mountains of colorado and wyoming
during the day. it doesn't seem entirely out of the question that
some of this activity may become capable of producing lightning,
particularly where surface temperatures are able to warm above
freezing. however, this probably will remain very sparse in
coverage. otherwise, thunderstorm probabilities marginally
sufficient for a categorical thunderstorm area are likely to linger
near pacific coastal areas, mainly from oregon into and just south
of san francisco bay.
it does still appear that the short wave trough emerging from the
west will support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the colorado
rockies into the central great plains late wednesday through
wednesday night. however, low-level flow, above the boundary-layer,
across and east of the southern great plains is forecast to maintain
a pronounced westerly component through the period. modest inland
moisture return off a gradually modifying gulf boundary layer
appears likely to remain focused east of the lower mississippi
valley, into the southeast, around the western periphery of
low-level ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical
latitudes of the western atlantic. it is possible that a weak
mid/upper impulse rapidly progressing eastward across parts of the
tennessee valley and southern appalachians, and/or low-level warm
advection farther west into the vicinity of the confluence of the
mississippi and ohio rivers, could support weak thunderstorm
development wednesday night. but, probabilities appear near or
below the minimum threshold for a categorical thunder area at the
present time.
..kerr.. 02/17/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z