spc ac 071725
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1225 pm cdt thu may 07 2026
valid 081200z - 091200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the southern plains into the ozarks...lower mississippi valley...and
gulf coast states...
...summary...
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible friday
through friday night from parts of oklahoma/texas into the ozarks,
lower mississippi valley, and gulf coast states. occasional large
hail and damaging gusts should be the main threats.
...synopsis...
with an upper low forecast to remain over hudson bay, a
mid/upper-level shortwave trough should develop southeastward friday
across much of the northern/central plains into the upper/mid ms
valley. shallow/limited low-level moisture will advance northward
across the southern plains into the ozarks ahead of a
southeastward-moving surface cold front. an initially separate
mid-level low over northern mexico friday morning should devlove
into an open wave through the day as it slowly shifts eastward into
tx through friday evening. greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to
low 70s surface dewpoints) should spread northward through the
period across tx into the lower ms valley and central gulf coast
states along an effective warm front, with a weak surface low
forecast to develop over northwest tx by early friday evening. a
surface dryline extending south-southwestward from this low across
west tx towards the big bend is forecast to gradually sharpen
through the day.
...oklahoma/southeast kansas into missouri/arkansas...
even with the somewhat limited low-level moisture expected ahead of
the cold front by friday afternoon, the presence of modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating should
contribute to around 500-1500 j/kg of mlcape in a narrow corridor
along/near the front. large-scale ascent associated with the
mid/upper-level shortwave trough should aid in the development of
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern ok into
the mo ozarks by late friday afternoon. with moderate to locally
strong deep-layer shear aiding updraft organization, the strongest
cores could produce occasional severe hail and/or damaging winds
through friday evening as they track east-southeastward before
eventually weakening with the loss of daytime heating. confidence in
a more focused severe corridor across this region remains too low
for a categorical upgrade with this update, mainly due to the
limited moisture/instability forecast.
...texas into the lower mississippi valley/southeast...
thunderstorms should form by late friday afternoon/early evening
across the higher terrain of north-central/northeast mexico, as
large-scale ascent preceding the southern-stream upper low/trough
overspreads this area. a rather moist low-level airmass will be in
place across south-central tx along/south of a warm front. while
some mlcin will likely persist through peak heating, it appears that
moderate to locally strong mucape coupled with around 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the
potential for supercells. while some uncertainty remains regarding
how may supercells may develop eastward from mexico into
south-central tx, the favorable environment supports inclusion of 5%
hail/wind probabilities and a marginal risk.
large-scale forcing appears more nebulous/weak across north/central
tx in between the surface cold front in ok and the upper low/trough
in northern mexico. daytime heating should help erode mlcin
along/near the dryline in northwest/north-central to west-central
tx, and the cap does not appear overly strong across these areas.
still, considerable uncertainty remains whether sustained
surface-based convection will occur friday afternoon/evening
along/east of the dryline in tx. even so, have expanded the marginal
risk southward to account for a conditional hail/wind threat if
convection initiates.
farther east into the lower ms valley and gulf coast states, some
guidance suggests robust thunderstorms may form through the day
mainly along/north of the remnant front. this activity will likely
be related to small-scale mid-level perturbations and weak low-level
warm advection. sufficient mucape amid strong deep-layer shear may
support organized cells/clusters capable of producing both isolated
severe hail and occasional damaging winds. other strong to severe
convection may form friday afternoon along the atlantic coast sea
breeze in northeast/east-central fl. the potential for additional
robust convection friday night into early saturday morning across
the arklatex and lower ms valley remains unclear. but, some chance
for persistent convection amid a gradually destabilizing airmass and
strengthening low-level warm/moist advection suggests at least an
isolated severe hail/wind risk may linger through the overnight
hours.
..gleason.. 05/07/2026
click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product
note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z