spc ac 081701
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1201 pm cdt wed jul 08 2026
valid 091200z - 101200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the parts
of the northern and central plains...the lower mo and oh
valleys...and the mid-atlantic...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms posing a risk for strong gusts and/or large
hail are possible across portions of the northern and central
plains, the lower missouri to lower ohio valleys, and across the
mid-atlantic on thursday afternoon and evening.
...lower mo to lower oh valleys...
one or more mcvs are forecast to be located over the lower mo/mid-ms
valley vicinity thursday morning. as these features migrate eastward
through the day, locally enhanced vertical shear will combine with a
very moist and strongly unstable airmass to provide support for
widely scattered organized severe convection. thunderstorm clusters
will mainly pose a risk for damaging winds and isolated hail. an
initial cluster may develop across eastern mo/southern il and shift
east along the lower oh valley. some guidance suggests a second
cluster may develop across southern mo and move east/southeast
across the mid-south vicinity and eventually into tn overnight. an
increasing southerly low-level jet during the evening could maintain
some severe risk even into the nighttime hours across the mid-south
into tn and severe probabilities have been expanded some across this
area to reflect this potential. otherwise, the forecast remains
largely similar to the previous day 2 outlook.
...northern/central plains...
several shortwave impulses are forecast to migrate across the region
within northwesterly flow aloft. at the surface, a pocket of richer
boundary layer moisture is forecast across the central plains, with
more modest moisture expected northward into the dakotas. strong
heating along a surface trough and steep midlevel lapse rates will
support pockets of 1500-2500 j/kg mlcape. initial supercell
structures are possible across the high plains and will pose a risk
of large hail and damaging gusts. with time, sufficient
clustering/outflow consolidation is expected and one or more linear
segments will evolve into portions of western ks/ne. severe gust
potential will increase as this occurs during the evening hours.
further north into north dakota, a separate area of supercell
potential is expected as a weak surface low moves east along the
international border near eastern mt/western nd. isolated supercells
developing ahead of an approaching surface front will pose a risk
for mainly large hail and strong gusts during the evening.
...mid-atlantic...
strong daytime heating of a very moist airmass will result in
1000-2000 j/kg mlcape. while deep-layer flow will remain modest,
forecast soundings do indicate around 25-30 kt effective shear
magnitudes. this may allow for some organization of thunderstorm
clusters by late afternoon. most cams guidance indicate a
forward-propagating cluster moving across the delmarva area and
offshore the mid-atlantic coast by evening. sufficient coverage of
storms and expected damaging gust potential appears high enough to
upgrade to a slight (level 2 of 5) risk.
...az...
thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of
southeast az/southwest nm thursday afternoon. steep lapse rates will
support around 1000 j/kg mlcape. this activity may pose a risk for
isolated severe gusts as convection shifts southwest across lower
elevated through evening.
...lower great lakes vicinity...
isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within modest
instability ahead of a southward-sagging surface boundary on
thursday. gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe
potential will likely be limited by poor lapse rates and modest
instability.
..leitman.. 07/08/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z