spc ac 241732
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1232 pm cdt sun may 24 2026
valid 251200z - 261200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for the mn
arrowhead region...parts of the central plains and midwest...parts
of nm/far west tx...and parts of the southeast...
...summary...
isolated strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of
the minnesota arrowhead region, central plains and midwest,
southeast, and new mexico/far west texas on monday.
...mn arrowhead region...
while large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best amidst modest
midlevel height rises, most guidance depicts strong heating and
potential for at least isolated storm development in the vicinity of
a cold front across parts of mn arrowhead region during the
afternoon. deep-layer flow will be modest, but southwesterly surface
winds veering to west-northwesterly aloft will result in 30-35 kt of
effective shear, sufficient for storm organization. relatively steep
lapse rates and moderate buoyancy will support isolated hail and
localized strong/damaging gusts, if storms can mature across this
region.
...central plains into southwest mn/northwest ia...
while forcing will generally be weak, strong diurnal heating may
support isolated storm development in the vicinity of a weak surface
trough/confluence zone from northern ne/southern sd into northwest
ia/southwest mn. deep-layer flow will be weak, but modest midlevel
west-northwesterlies may provide sufficient deep-layer shear for
some storm organization. favorable lapse rates and buoyancy will
support potential for isolated hail and localized damaging gusts.
...nm into far west texas...
relatively widespread convection is expected on monday across parts
of nm into far west tx, in association with mid/upper-level trough
over the southwest. buoyancy is expected to remain relatively modest
across nm, but generally unidirectional southerly flow within a
relatively well-mixed environment will support outflow-driven
clusters capable of localized severe gusts. strong storms may spread
into parts of far west tx monday night, with a continued threat of
strong to localized severe gusts.
...southeast...
a similar regime to previous days is expected across the gulf
coast/southeast, with widespread convection expected to the east of
a persistent mid/upper-level trough over east tx. water-loaded
downdrafts will again be capable producing localized wind damage,
with any more organized potential tied to uncertain mcv development.
a marginal risk has been included from the fl panhandle into ga,
where there appears to be the greatest potential for preconvective
heating/destabilization. if organized mcv development occurs, then
there may be some severe potential to the west and north of this
marginal risk area.
...interior northwest/northern rockies...
thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon from far eastern
or/wa into id/western mt/northwest wy, in advance of a vigorous
mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving into the pacific northwest.
much of this activity may be relatively high-based and disorganized,
with strong outflow gusts possible. the most aggressive guidance
regarding moistening and destabilization suggests some marginal
supercell potential across northern id and far western mt. severe
probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of the region,
if guidance consensus trends towards a greater potential for
organized convection.
..dean.. 05/24/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z