spc ac 241735
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1235 pm cdt wed jun 24 2026
valid 251200z - 261200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the central/southern high plains into southern kansas and northern
oklahoma and into the ozarks...
...summary...
scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the high plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. storms
are also expected across southern kansas and northern oklahoma into
the ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.
...synopsis...
zonal flow will bring broad westerly flow aloft across much of the
central rockies into the central/southern plains d2/thursday. within
the broad upper-level flow, several perturbations will rotate across
the central/southern plains. further east, a more potent shortwave
trough with a band of enhanced westerly flow will move across the
ohio valley. at the surface, a cold front will extend from wisconsin
south and west into the central plains shifting south and eastward
into the ohio valley through the afternoon. a surface low will
deepen across the texas/oklahoma panhandles through the evening.
...high plains...
a shortwave trough moving out of montana will bring forcing for
ascent and thunderstorm development by the afternoon across portions
of the high plains. guidance suggests that ahead of this feature,
widespread cloud cover will be in place across much of the
central/northern rockies thursday morning/early afternoon. this may
inhibit destabilization, especially with northern extent into
portions of eastern montana/northern colorado. nonetheless, it
appears at least marginal instability will be achieved by late
afternoon through filtered daytime heating along and east of the
rockies. this in combination with deep layer shear around 30-40 kts
will support organized clusters capable of damaging wind. somewhat
better heating is expected across southeastern colorado, where less
cloud cover is expected. across this region, supercells will be
possible with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
...northern oklahoma/southern kansas into the ozarks...
a quick moving shortwave trough will likely support potential for an
mcs/cluster of thunderstorms to be ongoing thursday morning into
portions of northern oklahoma/southern kansas. the exact location of
this and resulting remnant outflow boundary placement will have a
large impact on afternoon severe potential. model trends in the 12z
guidance have been to push this boundary further south into portions
of northern oklahoma, with the best instability also being shunted
further south. afternoon thunderstorm development should be centered
along the intersection of the remnant outflow/cold front from
southern kansas into northern oklahoma. moderate instability and
deep layer shear around 30-45 kts will support supercells, with
storm motions likely to be along-boundary. there remains strong
signal that a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet will increase
into the evening across oklahoma into southern kansas. this in
combination with favorable along boundary storm motions will support
potential for tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. the main
uncertainty remains in the exact placement of the boundary relative
to the more favorable corridor of instability/low-level jet axis.
the 5% tornado area was shifted southward with this update to
account for recent trends. it is possible that if more confidence in
the placement of these features occurs, higher probabilities may be
needed. for now, confidence remains moderate in supercells
developing with potential for large to very large hail and damaging
wind.
...portions of the ohio valley into southern new york...
development is expected along the cold front from southern new york
into the ohio valley thursday afternoon as a jet streak moves across
the region with increasing forcing for ascent. moderate instability
and strong deep layer shear ahead of this will support organized
storms and perhaps a few transient supercells with potential for
damaging wind and large hail. the marginal risk was expanded along
the front into portions of indiana/southern ohio/northern kentucky
to account for this potential extending along the entirety of the
cold front.
...northern utah...
widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions
of utah thursday afternoon. steep low to mid-level lapse rates are
expected with very dry near-surface conditions. modest instability
will overlap with strong deep layer shear across northern utah by
the afternoon. forecast soundings indicate large inverted-v profiles
and potential for severe winds. a marginal risk was added to the
area to account for this potential.
..thornton.. 06/24/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z