spc ac 131722
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1222 pm cdt wed may 13 2026
valid 141200z - 151200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
central and eastern kansas...
...summary...
thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
thursday across parts of central and eastern kansas, with more
isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower missouri
valley, northern ozarks and southern high plains.
...synopsis...
prominent mid-level ridging over the central us is forecast to
weaken and shift eastward thursday as a flanking upper low moves
eastward toward the atlantic coast. a second upper trough, and
associated southern stream shortwave, will move out of the rockies
and into the plains thursday afternoon/evening. ascent from this
trough will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the central
high plains, south of a cold front advancing through the upper
midwest. strengthening southerly flow ahead of the lee low will
allow destabilization and increased thunderstorm chances along a
trailing dryline from the central plains to the southern high
plains.
...central ks into the mo and central ms valley...
as the southern lee low deepens ahead of the southern stream
shortwave trough, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture will
quickly return northward into central ks. model guidance varies
considerably on the depth and quality of the low-level moisture.
however, dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s f appear plausible by
late afternoon and continuing to increase into the evening. this, in
combination with ascent and steepening mid-level lapse rates, will
support moderate destabilization (1500-2500 j/kg mlcape) along the
dryline/triple point. low-level southerly flow, veering to 40-50 kt
in the mid-levels and orthogonal to the dryline will promote
supercell wind profiles.
while capping is expected to remain fairly strong, casting some
uncertainty on storm coverage, ascent from the approaching shortwave
trough along with diurnal heating should remove inhibition.
convective development is possible near the surface low, or
originating within the more deeply mixed air mass to the west of the
dryline, by late afternoon/early evening. large hail would be likely
initially, along with some potential for severe wind gusts given the
dry boundary layer. as these storms encounter the increasing surface
moisture, gradual intensification of a few supercells is possible.
the increase in the low-level jet after 00z could support additional
development, while also increasing low-level shear. a tornado is
possible with any supercells able to remain discrete near sunset
given 0-1 km srh of 200-400 m2/s2.
eventually, storms should congeal into a cluster and spread eastward
into mo and the mid ms valley overnight. some hail and damaging gust
threat remain possible into early d3/friday.
...southern and central high plains...
to the west of the dryline, robust heating and deep vertical mixing
should support the development of weak instability atop a relatively
dry boundary layer. by mid afternoon, high-based showers and
thunderstorms are expected from eastern co, western ks into parts of
the ok/tx panhandles and eastern nm. while buoyancy appears quite
limited (~500 j/kg mucape), nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the
lowest 3 km will likely support stronger downdrafts with scattered
showers/thunderstorms. isolated severe wind gusts are possible given
the dry sub cloud layer.
..lyons.. 05/13/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z