spc ac 060530
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1230 am cdt sat jun 06 2026
valid 071200z - 081200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms ...
...summary...
scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, severe
wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across the
northern plains. more isolated severe storms capable locally
damaging wind gusts may occur across portions of the mid-atlantic. a
brief tornado or two appears possible in eastern oklahoma and
western arkansas.
...synopsis...
a vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks
within the base of broader-scale troughing from the lee of the
canadian rockies into northern intermountain region sunday morning
are forecast to accelerate northeast through the northern high
plains, ahead of an upstream jet segment moving onto the pacific
northwest coast. elsewhere, an amplified short-wave trough will
progress through the northeast, while a more loosely organized
trough progresses through the central and southern plains through
the ozarks and mid ms valley.
at the surface, an area of low pressure and associated pre-frontal
trough over the western dakotas will be overtaken by a cold front
moving out of the northern rockies. that frontal system will
continue east into the nd-mn red river valley, and southeast into
the central high plains by monday morning. elsewhere, more of a
backdoor cold front will progress south/southwest through the
northeast into mid-atlantic.
...montana and wyoming into the dakotas...
a hot, deeply mixed boundary layer is expected to develop ahead of
the pre-frontal trough over the western dakotas sunday afternoon,
with the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates contributing to
an axis of moderate to strong instability. moderate instability is
expected to extend into eastern mt and northeast wy, owing to
low-level moisture wrapping around the surface trough. initial storm
development is expected by mid afternoon along the western fringe of
the instability axis across southeast mt into north-central and
northeast wy as lift is enhanced by terrain, the cold front, and
forcing tied to the vorticity maximum and attending jet streaks. a
separate thunderstorm regime is expected to evolve by late afternoon
into evening over the western dakotas as the cold front merges with
the pre-frontal trough.
the mt/wy storms are expected to mature in a strongly sheared
environment, which will favor supercells capable of large hail.
initially marginal vertical shear with the western dakotas storm
regime is expected strengthen through the evening, supporting the
potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts as the primary hazards. some tornado threat may
materialize by mid/late evening across portions of north-central nd
where strengthening low-level shear will coincide with a more moist,
lower-lcl boundary layer. the magnitude of the threat will be
contingent on storm mode at that time, given the tendency for more
linear forcing along the cold front.
... central virginia into the chesapeake bay area...
daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to
a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon, ahead of a pre-frontal
wind shift moving into the area from the north. convergence along
that boundary along with the glancing influence of the mid-level
trough passing to the immediate north are expected to support
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
across the discussion area. relatively warm mid-level temperatures
are expected to limit the potential for large hail; however, the
presence of steep, low-level lapse rates and 30-35 kt of
northwesterly deep-layer shear appear supportive of locally damaging
wind gusts through the afternoon into early evening.
...eastern oklahoma and western arkansas...
forcing for ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum moving through
the base of broader-scale troughing is expected to contribute to an
increase in thunderstorm coverage early in the day. that scenario
would tend to limit air mass destabilization through the afternoon,
leaving severe-storm potential in question. however, there is a
signal in some guidance that a low-level jet will strengthen during
the afternoon into evening, leading to an increase in low-level
shear. a concurrent risk for a brief tornado or two may materialize,
especially with any storms on the southern or western fringe of the
larger convective footprint. that notion is generally supported by
the 00z href mean 0-1 km srh, which shows values increasing to
100-150 m2/s2 by sunday evening.
..mead.. 06/06/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z