spc ac 100521
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1221 am cdt fri apr 10 2026
valid 111200z - 121200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across southeast
new mexico into western texas...
...summary...
scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible across portions of the central and southern plains on
saturday.
...southern/central plains...
upper ridging will be in place over the central u.s. early saturday.
a weak upper shortwave trough over the great basin will migrate
northeast through the period, along with several other lead
shortwave impulses ahead of a larger-scale western trough/upper low
near the pacific coast. this will result in deamplification of the
upper ridge. modest deep-layer southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt
will overspread much of the plains. at the surface, low pressure
will deepen over montana and eventually develop east across the
northern plains late in the period, while lee troughing extends
southward across the high plains. increasing south/southeasterly
low-level flow will transport 50s and low 60s f dewpoints northward
toward the mid-mo valley, and westward toward western ks/ok/tx.
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface
trough across eastern nm/western tx during the afternoon as modest
large-scale ascent overspreads the region. cloud cover will limit
daytime heating, but steepening lapse rates and modestly increasing
boundary-layer moisture will support mlcape to around 1000-1500
j/kg. vertical shear will be weak but sufficient for at least
transient organized cells capable of producing large hail. as a
low-level jet increases during the evening, some consolidation of
updrafts could occur and linear segments/small bows could produce
locally strong wind gusts.
further north, a more conditional risk is expected across the
central plains. a warm front will lift northward across ks/ne during
the afternoon and into early evening. forecast soundings indicate
capping will likely preclude much convective development within the
warm sector. however, if any cells are able to develop and become
sustained near the warm front, a severe risk will be possible. this
scenario is uncertain, and will maintain level 1 of 5/marginal risk.
additionally cells are possible during the evening across parts of
eastern co/western ks/western ne near the surface trough. locally
strong gusts and hail will be possible with these storms.
...central ca...
low-topped thunderstorms are possible in the north-central valley
vicinity during the afternoon/evening as cooling aloft and
increasing ascent overspread the region ahead of an upper low over
the eastern pacific. instability is expected to remain weak (less
than 400 j/kg mlcape), but small hail and gusty winds may briefly
occur with stronger cells. as the upper low and a surface cold front
approach the central coast overnight, a line of low-topped
convection could bring gusty winds as well. severe storms are not
expected at this time.
...great basin vicinity...
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during
the afternoon and evening as a compact upper shortwave trough moves
over the region. cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel
lapse rates and mlcape generally less than 500 j/kg. however, a well
mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles and around 30 kt southwesterly flow through 600 mb could
support locally gusty winds. overall, severe potential appears
limited.
..leitman.. 04/10/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z