spc ac 181714
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1114 am cst thu dec 18 2025
valid 191200z - 201200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
thunderstorms may occur over the mid atlantic and northeast early
friday, and in the pacific northwest friday afternoon through friday
night. severe storms are not forecast.
...synopsis and discussion...
a large negative-tilt upper trough will extend from the upper great
lakes into the southeast friday morning, and will eject
northeastward across mid atlantic and new england late in the day.
at the surface, low pressure will move across southern quebec, with
a cold front extending south from ny into the eastern carolinas
friday morning. this front will quickly push into new england by
midday and will already be off the nc coast. southerly surface winds
will bring 50s f dewpoints as far north as nj ahead of the front,
with low 60s f into eastern nc and va.
...northeast...eastern va and nc...
strong lift along the cold front will likely support a higher
reflectivity line of precipitation and possibly shallow convection
from eastern pa into md and eastern va/nc friday morning, which will
rapidly move east toward the hudson valley and extending southward
and offshore between 15-18z. forecast soundings indicate a cool
boundary layer and zero sbcape over northern parts of the frontal
zone, with minimal sbcape farther south. there may be a short window
of convectively augmented wind gusts prior to the line moving
offshore, but instability, early time of day and limited lapse rates
aloft suggest minimal overall risk.
..jewell.. 12/18/2025
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0700z