spc ac 060653
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1253 am cst fri mar 06 2026
valid 071200z - 081200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from central texas
to the lower mississippi valley and the upper ohio valley to lower
great lakes...
...summary...
isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from
saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the
southern great plains to the lower great lakes. isolated very large
hail may occur in parts of texas.
...synopsis...
an upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will migrate east across the midwest and great lakes
regions on saturday. meanwhile, an upper low over the
southwest/lower co valley will continue to retrograde, becoming
positioned offshore from baja ca by sunday morning. at the surface,
low pressure over the upper great lakes will deepen as it shifts
northeast across ontario and quebec. a trailing cold front will
extend south/southwest from the low toward the lower mo valley and
into north and central tx at the beginning of the period. this front
will sweep east/southeast across the midwest and mid-south/tn valley
vicinity, while the plains portion of the front develops southward
across tx.
...ohio valley and lower great lakes vicinity...
convection will be ongoing across portions of the region saturday
morning along outflow positioned well ahead of the synoptic cold
front. southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening surface
cyclone over the great lakes will maintain upper 50s to low 60s f
dewpoints across the region. cloudiness and ongoing convection will
limit surface heating. however, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow
and modest destabilization (mlcape 500-1000 j/kg) will support
sustained thunderstorm development into the afternoon/evening.
the greatest risk for severe appears to be across the upper ohio
valley where some stronger heating is possible. sufficient low-level
speed shear will be present to enlarge low-level hodographs.
furthermore, 0-1 km srh values near 150 m2/s2 are noted in some
forecast soundings. however, linear convection is expected to be the
main storm mode given boundary-parallel deep-layer southwesterly
flow, promoting mainly a damaging wind risk. however, if any
cellular convection develops, an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail and a tornado or two also will be possible.
...tx into the mid-south and lower ms/tn valleys...
convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface front saturday
morning. some of this convection may be elevated as it quickly
becomes undercut by the cold front, especially near the red river
into portions of ar. this activity may pose a risk for severe hail
early in the period across north tx into southeast ok and parts of
ar. convection is expected to develop south and east along the front
through the day. the downstream warm sector will be characterized by
low to mid 60s f dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates,
supporting mlcape in the 500-1500 j/kg range. linear convection will
be most predominant across the mid-south into the tn valley where a
risk for isolated to scattered wind damage and marginal hail will
exist through the afternoon before a weakening trend ensues after
sunset across the deep south.
across tx, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast. low level flow
is expected to remain modest further removed from the upper
shortwave trough and surface cyclone across the midwest/great lakes.
however, stronger heating, steeper low and midlevel lapse rates, and
favorable wind profiles for organized supercells will support a
corridor of severe hail potential from central tx toward southwest
ar/northwest la near the undercutting cold front. the strongest
storms could produce hail in the 1.5-2 inch range.
..leitman.. 03/06/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z