spc ac 061726
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1126 am cst fri mar 06 2026
valid 071200z - 081200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in tx to ms and
the upper oh valley/lower great lakes...
...summary...
isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from saturday
morning into the evening across a broad swath of the southern great
plains to the lower great lakes. isolated very large hail should
occur over parts of texas, centered on the south-central vicinity.
...synopsis...
an upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will move east from the upper midwest to the great lakes
regions on saturday. meanwhile, an upper low over the lower co
valley will continue to retrograde, becoming positioned offshore
from baja ca by sunday morning. at the surface, a cyclone over the
upper great lakes will deepen as it quickly moves to qc. a trailing
cold front will extend southwest from the low across the lower mo
valley to central tx at 12z saturday. this front will sweep
east/southeast across the midwest, while the tx portion slows its
southern progression through early sunday.
...oh valley/lower great lakes...
at least scattered convection will be ongoing in a broad swath
along/ahead of the aforementioned front from the mid-south to the
central great lakes. southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening
surface cyclone into on/qc will support upper 50s to low 60s
dewpoints advecting towards western pa/southwest ny. cloudiness in
vicinity of the ongoing convection will limit heating immediately
downstream, but a corridor of moderate insolation should develop
from the cumberland plateau into a portion of the upper oh valley.
this should support weak to modest mlcape of 500-1000 j/kg during
the afternoon. most guidance signals an uptick in convective
intensity should occur as the large-scale outflow impinges on the
stronger instability by early afternoon. sufficient low-level speed
shear will be present to moderately enlarge hodographs, however
linear convection is expected to be the main storm mode given nearly
parallel to the boundary deep-layer southwesterly flow. scattered
damaging winds from strong to isolated severe gusts should be the
main hazard. a tornado or two and isolated marginally severe hail
may occur in deeper updrafts.
...tx to the deep south...
extensive convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface
front at 12z saturday from the mid-south to the tx big country. the
western portion of this activity should be elevated with continuous
undercutting by the south/southeastward-moving cold front, posing an
initial severe hail threat. linear convection will be most
predominant from the ark-la-tex/mid-south, sagging east-southeast
across the lower ms to tn valleys, as it expands in coverage with
downstream diurnal destabilization. low-level shear will be
strongest in the morning, before weakening through the afternoon. a
brief tornado or two is possible early, but sporadic bursts of
damaging winds should be the primary hazard, along with isolated
severe hail. linear clusters will probably persist into the evening,
but shrink in areal extent on saturday night, with a diminishing
severe threat towards the central gulf coast.
over central to southern tx, steep mid-level lapse rates and greater
boundary-layer heating, particularly closer to the rio grande,
should support a plume of mlcape from 1500-2000 j/kg. low-level flow
will remain weak and slightly diffluent in the open warm-moist
sector. transient supercells are expected as the composite
front/outflow ripples southeastward across the state through the
evening. large hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary
hazards. a more intense supercell or two remains plausible in a
meso-beta corridor of south tx/brush country vicinity, capable of
very large hail. this may warrant a level 3-enh with a cig2
delineation in later outlooks.
..grams.. 03/06/2026
click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product
note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0700z