spc ac 131708
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1208 pm cdt mon oct 13 2025
valid 141200z - 151200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
new mexico...and coastal southern california...
...summary...
thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on tuesday across parts new mexico from late afternoon into
the evening. an isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will be
possible tuesday morning through midday along the coast in southern
california.
...synopsis...
a deep upper low will fill as it moves from central ca into nv on
tuesday. a midlevel speed max will move into southern ca early in
the day, nosing northeastward into southern ut into wednesday. cold
temperatures aloft will exist on the north side of the jet, which
will favor scattered daytime convection due to heating.
ahead of this system, and west of a southern plains ridge, southerly
winds will maintain a plume of moisture across much of nm and into
co. as this area will be well east of the upper low, temperatures
aloft will remain relatively warm.
...coastal southern ca...
a band of rain and thunderstorms is likely to be ongoing tuesday
morning along a cold front, extending well offshore. this arcing
line of convection will be supported by very cold temperatures aloft
north of the midlevel speed max, with sbcape values of a couple
hundred j/kg. although low-topped, sufficient buoyancy in the
low-levels combined with veering winds with height and organization
along a boundary may result in isolated severe weather, with
damaging gusts and perhaps a brief/weak tornado. this convection
will likely be strongest from morning to midday, eventually
weakening across southern parts of the marginal risk area as that
portion of the front interacts with warmer temperatures aloft.
...nm...
instability will gradually increase through late afternoon within
the theta-e plume with persistent southerly flow. it appears the
primary risk will occur late in the day/evening, as full
destabilization is persisted into the night due to the established
moist plume. subtle height falls may occur late, and several cams
suggest nocturnal development with storms racing northward across
central portions of nm. given robust shear profiles, a few storms
could contain marginal hail or gusty winds.
..jewell.. 10/13/2025
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