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spc ac 201718

day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1118 am cst wed feb 20 2019

valid 211200z - 221200z severe thunderstorm areas forecast...

the risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the u.s.
thursday through thursday night.

...gulf coast states to southeast atlantic coast...

instability will remain scant across the region as weak gulf
moisture advects northward beneath strong mid/upper level ridge. a
stalled cold front will drape southwest to northeast across the
region, resulting in mainly anafrontal precipitation processes.
isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the
front, but strong convection is not expected for the most part.

there may be a narrow/brief corridor for greater thunderstorm
coverage and possibly a strong storm in the warm sector during the
afternoon from southeast al into southwest/central ga. this is
largely dependent on how much surface heating, and resultant
destabilization, occurs. effective shear profiles could support a
briefly organized storm capable of gusty winds, but low probability
nature of the threat will preclude addition of probs at this time.

elsewhere, a few thunderstorms will be possible across southern ca
into southwest az.

...maximum risk by hazard...
tornado: wuus02 ptsdy2 product

note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0700z