spc ac 260544
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1244 am cdt tue may 26 2026
valid 271200z - 281200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over central and
eastern virginia...southern maryland...and northeast north
carolina...
...summary...
scattered strong storms are expected primarily over parts of
virginia and maryland wednesday afternoon and early evening. a few
damaging gusts will be possible.
...synopsis...
height falls will occur over the northeastern states on wednesday as
a positive-tilt upper trough moves across the great lakes and toward
the mid atlantic. this will flatten the upper ridge over the
southeast, with increasing westerlies aloft. at the surface, a
trough will develop from southern new england into eastern va, with
strong daytime heating. dewpoints in the upper 60s f will be common,
aiding instability.
elsewhere, a deep upper low will be nearly stationary from central
ca into western nv, with a surface trough developing during the
afternoon from ut into southern id and eastern or. strong heating
within this trough may yield scattered thunderstorms moving
northwestward across parts of id into or, with locally gusty winds.
farther north, instability may develop over wi and vicinity, near a
southwestward-moving cold front and on the back side of the upper
trough. isolated strong cells cannot be ruled out with gusty winds.
...mid atlantic region...
scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of in/oh/pa
within a warm advection zone with westerly 850 mb winds. this
activity will generally shift east/southeast during the day, as the
air mass ahead of it destabilizes. possible outflow from this
activity, as well as surface convergence within the heating air mass
should yield additional cells/clusters during the afternoon, moving
east/southeast across va, md, and northern nc. though lapse rates
aloft will not be particularly steep, high pwat along with peak
heating and increasing winds aloft will support storm longevity,
with possible forward-propagating clusters. increasing deep-layer
shear may also support cellular storm mode. a few strong to severe
wind gusts appear most likely during the late afternoon and early
evening.
..jewell.. 05/26/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z