spc ac 050700
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0100 am cst wed feb 05 2025
valid 061200z - 071200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
severe weather is not expected across the u.s. on thursday.
...discussion...
zonal flow aloft will broadly persist across the u.s. thursday, with
the two main features being a short-wave trough pivoting toward --
and eventually into -- the pacific northwest, and a second that will
cross ontario/quebec and the great lakes region through the period.
meanwhile, a much weaker/more subtle disturbance will move out of
the pacific and across california early, and then continue eastward
across the four corners states, and eventually -- by the end of the
period -- emerge into the plains.
at the surface, a weak frontal wave should move across the central
appalachians and then off the new england coast by evening, while
the trailing cold front makes only slow southward progress across
the southeast and southern plains through the period.
showers and possibly a few weak thunderstorms may be ongoing at the
start of the period, from the tennessee valley into the mid-atlantic
region. weak convective activity will likely continue during the
period, along the aforementioned surface front as it sags southward.
however, weak instability forecast across the region should
substantially hinder appreciable severe risk. at this time, it
appears that a stronger, elevated afternoon storm or two, evolving
over the north carolina vicinity, possibly capable of producing
hail. however, overall risk for any hail exceeding 1" in diameter
appears too small at this time to introduce a mrgl risk area.
..goss.. 02/05/2025
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z