spc ac 071749
day 2 convective outlook corr 2
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1249 pm cdt sat jun 07 2025
valid 081200z - 091200z
...there is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms across the
portions of the southern plains...
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms south/lower-mid
atlantic piedmont/coastal plain...
corrected for line error
...summary...
severe thunderstorms are most likely across oklahoma and northern
texas to the ark-la-tex during the late afternoon and evening on
sunday. a few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
very large hail are possible.
...synopsis...
a vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern
mb/northwest on to northern mn vicinity through early morning
monday. the attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast
il to the raton mesa by 21z sunday. low-amplitude mid/upper
troughing, with multiple embedded mcvs, will move east from the
eastern midwest and tn valley into the mid and south atlantic states
by sunday evening.
...southern plains...
thunderstorm development is expected along the front in kansas and
oklahoma by late morning/early afternoon. south of the front,
daytime heating should yield a gradient of strong to extreme cape
(3000-5000 mlcape) across southwestern ok into northern tx. initial
development is likely to be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large hail (some 3+ in) and damaging wind given steep lapse
rates through the profile and ample deep layer shear. a couple of
tornadoes remain possible where storm interactions and splitting
cells occur. through time, mode is likely to become more
multicelluar before eventual upscale growth along congealing outflow
to an mcs. as this moves along the gradient southeast across
southwestern ok into northern tx, potential for significant winds
(80-100 mph) will be possible.
...ozarks to mid-ms valley...
isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the northeast
to southwest front by late afternoon and persist through
mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the ms river owing to a
relatively confined mlcape plume. a strong mid-level jetlet is
expected to be centered across ia to southern wi. more moderate
deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a
few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters.
scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible,
along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado.
...south to lower mid-atlantic states...
boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the atlantic
coastal plain and adjacent piedmont should support mlcape of
1500-2500 j/kg. multiple embedded mcvs will support at least
scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and
spreading east towards the coast. enhanced mid-level westerlies will
support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering.
scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. a
couple of tornadoes are also possible in the lower mid-atlantic
along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level
shear may be adequate ahead of a central appalachians mcv.
..thornton.. 06/07/2025
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z