spc ac 081730
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1230 pm cdt fri may 08 2026
valid 091200z - 101200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the southern plains...
...summary...
thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds may
develop across parts of the southern/central plains saturday
afternoon and evening. an isolated severe threat is also forecast
along much of the gulf coast, portions of the great lakes, and
mid-atlantic.
...southern/central plains...
within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the
central/eastern states, a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to
develop southeastward from the northern rockies/high plains into the
central high plains by saturday evening. modest/shallow low-level
moisture should advance northward from tx/ok into the central high
plains ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. initially
high-based convection should form across southeast wy/northeast co
saturday afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward in a
weakly unstable but well-mixed boundary layer. isolated severe gusts
should be the main threat with this activity, but some hail could
also occur with the stronger cores given cold mid-level temperatures
and strong deep-layer shear.
weak lee cyclogenesis should occur across the eastern tx panhandle
through the day, with a surface dryline extending southward from
this low across west tx. most guidance suggests moderate to locally
strong instability will develop to the east of the dryline across
western ok and vicinity through peak heating, with minimal mlcin
present. however, overall large-scale forcing will remain
weak/nebulous, with the primary mid-level shortwave trough across
the central high plains through saturday evening. still, at least
isolated convective initiation appears plausible along/near the
dryline and surface triple point. any convection which forms and can
be sustained through the evening would tend to become supercellular
and pose a threat for large hail and occasional damaging winds.
there is also some signal for a convective cluster to spread
southeastward from ks into ok late saturday evening through early
sunday morning. if this occurs, then a continued threat for isolated
severe/damaging winds and hail may persist through the end of the
period. accordingly, the marginal/slight risks across the southern
plains have been adjusted based on these latest guidance trends.
...coastal/south texas into the southeast...
scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the
start of the period across parts of the lower ms valley and central
gulf coast states along/near a stalled surface front. given
sufficiently strong westerly mid-level flow and related deep-layer
shear to support updraft organization, this convection may pose an
isolated hail/damaging wind threat as it moves generally
east-southeastward through saturday afternoon into a gradually
destabilizing airmass.
farther west, a southern-stream mid-level shortwave trough is
forecast to move eastward across coastal/south tx through the day.
the presence of a rich/moist low-level airmass beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates amid strong deep-layer shear will
conditionally support a severe threat with any cells that can
persist/develop. this potential remains somewhat unclear, as better
forcing aloft associated with the mid-level shortwave trough will
tend to shift eastward over the western gulf through the day. still,
at least isolated large hail and damaging winds could occur, which
supports expanding the marginal risk into parts of south tx.
...great lakes...
a strong mid/upper-level jet embedded within the larger-scale upper
troughing centered over eastern canada will overspread the southern
great lakes on saturday. although low-level moisture will remain
limited ahead of a cold front, daytime heating should aid in
steepening low-level lapse rates by early saturday afternoon, with
weak mlcape forecast to develop. a broken band of thunderstorms
should form and pose some risk for damaging winds, and perhaps hail
given 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. this convection will likely
weaken through the evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass
with eastward extent into the upper oh valley and appalachians.
...mid-atlantic...
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop saturday
afternoon across parts of southeast pa into md/de/nj, where a weakly
unstable but strongly sheared environment should support some
updraft organization. overall instability appears marginal to
support supercells, but hail and damaging winds could occur with the
strongest cores as they move quickly eastward and off the atlantic
coast by saturday evening.
..gleason.. 05/08/2026
click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product
note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z