spc ac 151727
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1227 pm cdt fri may 15 2026
valid 161200z - 171200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms from extreme
northeast colorado into southwest nebraska and northwest kansas...
...summary...
severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible saturday afternoon
and evening across parts of the central plains. scattered
thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds
across the lower to mid- missouri valley.
...central plains to the oh valley...
amplification of the pattern will occur this weekend as a midlevel
trough digs south-southeastward over the northern rockies/great
basin, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected in the vicinity of
southeast co. within the warm sector of the cyclone, an influx of
mid-upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will persist from ok/ks into
the lower mo valley and the oh valley. remnants of d1 convection
could be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of mo/il,
with the possibility of an mcv moving eastward during the day across
the oh valley. isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible
with loosely organized clusters during the day into the oh valley.
isolated severe storms will also be possible during the afternoon
along the outflow-reinforced front across northern mo.
the primary severe threat is expected to increase saturday
afternoon/evening, starting in northeast co and spreading eastward
into ne and adjacent areas of northwest ks. upslope flow north of
the lee cyclone and westward advection of low-level moisture beneath
steep midlevel lapse rates will result in moderate-large buoyancy
near the warm front. storm initiation is probable by mid-late
afternoon in northeast co, and storms will subsequently spread
eastward toward southwest ne/northwest ks. wind profiles with long
hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing very large
hail (up to 3 inches in diameter). low-level shear and moisture
will become sufficient for a few tornadoes as the storms move
farther east toward the co/ks/ne border region. upscale growth into
a cluster/mcs will also be possible saturday evening, with an
increase in the potential for severe outflow gusts of 65-80 mph.
farther south, thunderstorm development along the dryline is more
questionable given a warm elevated mixed layer and (at best) weak
forcing for ascent. still, hot temperatures/deep mixing could
support isolated, high-based storms with the conditional threat for
large hail and strong outflow gusts.
..thompson.. 05/15/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z