spc ac 230636
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1236 am cst fri jan 23 2026
valid 241200z - 251200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across the u.s. saturday
through saturday night.
...synopsis...
the mid-level pattern over the conus is forecast to amplify
significantly this weekend as initially split flow consolidates
behind a departing east coast upper trough. several short wave
perturbations (over the southwest, northern mexico, and southern
canada) will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level
troughing across the rockies and great plains by late saturday
night.
as upper troughing becomes established, a strong arctic cold front
will rapidly move south with high pressure (1045+ mb) building in
its wake. an extensive cold intrusion will occur with significant
latitudinal suppression of lee cyclogenesis to far northern mex and
the southern gulf coast. this will greatly limit inland moisture
return. still, strong lift in the form of isentropic ascent over top
the front will support widespread winter precipitation (some
possibly with isolated lightning) over the plains and south-central
us much of saturday.
...south texas coast...
as the strong arctic high pressure building over the southern plains
forces the cold front to surge south, the arctic air mass will
rapidly undercut the a remnant warm sector over parts of far south
tx. strong isentropic ascent over the shallow surface front will
allow for modest elevated destabilization. however, poor mid-level
lapse rates (6-6.5 c/km) and the overnight arrival of the more
consolidated upper ascent should preclude the development of larger
buoyancy. thus, while a stronger storm is briefly possible along the
immediate coast or elevated behind the front, the overall severe
risk appears quite limited.
..lyons.. 01/23/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z