spc ac 111729
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1229 pm cdt thu jun 11 2026
valid 121200z - 131200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms friday afternoon
and evening across the appalachians vicinity into the mid
atlantic...
...summary...
clusters of thunderstorms may develop across the appalachians into
mid atlantic friday afternoon through friday evening, accompanied by
potential to produce damaging wind gusts.
...discussion...
downstream of building mid-level ridging within the mid-latitudes,
offshore of the pacific coast, it still appears that flow will
remain largely zonal across the northern tier of the interior u.s.
through at least this period, between subtropical ridging centered
over the northern gulf basin and a quasi-stationary mid-level low
centered to the southwest of hudson bay. across the atlantic
seaboard, it appears that generally modest to weak, though difluent
and splitting, flow will prevail, as the most substantive upstream
short wave perturbations pivot across and to the northwest of the
lower great lakes, around the periphery of the low.
in lower levels, a surface cyclone is forecast to migrate
north/northwestward into the hudson bay vicinity and occlude friday
through friday night, with the trailing cold front advancing
southeastward through much of the mid atlantic by 12z saturday.
across the lower ohio through southern great plains red river
valleys, the front, initially reinforced by convective outflow, is
forecast to weaken, while a another influx of cooler/drier air
slowly spreads south of the central canadian/u.s. border vicinity,
through the northern great plains/upper midwest and adjacent great
lakes region.
..appalachians/mid atlantic...
there still appears a general consensus within model output that
seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content will support sizable
potential instability (including cape in excess of 2000 j/kg) with
insolation by early friday afternoon, from portions of the
cumberland and allegheny plateau into the lee of the blue ridge and
perhaps poconos/catskills. coincident with at least subtle to weak
mid-level height falls, and modest strengthening of flow in the
700-500 mb layer to 20-30 kt, the environment may become conducive
to the evolution of modestly organizing clusters with potential to
produce swaths of strong to severe wind gusts.
...southern rockies and adjacent great plains...
moistening southerly low-level flow, in the presence of steepening
low-level lapse rates with daytime heating, may contribute to
sizable cape in excess of 2000 j/kg along/east of the guadalupe and
sacramento mountains, through the sangre de cristo mountains
and raton mesa vicinity by early friday evening. this may become
supportive of scattered thunderstorm development with potential to
produce severe hail and localized strong surface gusts.
particularly closer to the southern periphery of the westerlies,
near and east of the raton mesa, shear may become supportive of an
organizing cluster propagating off the higher terrain, as a
nocturnal low-level jet strengthens friday evening. it might not be
out of the question that probabilities for severe wind will need to
be increased further across parts of northeastern new mexico into
southwestern kansas and the texas/oklahoma panhandle region in later
outlook updates for this period.
..kerr.. 06/11/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z