spc ac 261725
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1125 am cst thu feb 26 2026
valid 271200z - 281200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the
southeast and florida peninsula on friday. severe thunderstorms are
not currently forecast.
...synopsis...
a diffuse cold front analyzed in mid-morning surface observations
across the southern appalachians and mid-ms river valley is expected
to push southeast over the next 24 hours in a tandem with an
upper-level shortwave trough. thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
early friday morning along the front from southern al and the fl
panhandle into southern ga, but some abatement through the
early-morning diurnal buoyancy minimum is anticipated.
re-intensification of lingering convection and/or development of
additional thunderstorms is expected along the fl peninsula through
the afternoon hours as modest heating yields sbcape values around
500 j/kg to perhaps 1000 j/kg across southern fl. broad-scale ascent
associated with the passing upper wave will persist through the
overnight hours; however, low-level convergence will steadily
diminish along the stalling, frontolytic frontal zone, favoring
mainly isolated to periodically scattered thunderstorms. an
unfavorable displacement of the greater buoyancy across
central/southern fl with the stronger mid-level flow further north
will limit the potential for organized/severe convection.
..moore.. 02/26/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0700z