spc ac 041741
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1241 pm cdt mon may 04 2026
valid 051200z - 061200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms centered over
arkansas and extending from northeast texas into western
tennessee...
...summary...
scattered strong to severe storms are possible tuesday afternoon and
evening from northeast texas into western tennessee, with the main
threat centered over arkansas. some storms may produce large hail,
damaging gusts or a couple tornadoes. additional strong storms are
possible across parts of the northeast.
...synopsis...
a weakening upper low will move from ontario into quebec with a
leading speed max moving quickly out of the great lakes region.
behind this system, high pressure will move southward into the
northern rockies and plains. the associated cold front will move
across the lower great lakes during the day, extending southwestward
across the ozarks and into eastern ok where a surface low is
forecast.
meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough will exist over the
southwestern states, with moderate to strong west/southwest flow
aloft expanding across the southern plains to the lower ms valley.
minimal height rises are forecast across this region, with the warm
advection regime aiding northward transport of low-level moisture
toward the ozarks.
...northeast tx into western tn...
a low pressure trough is forecast to develop generally from northern
tx into eastern ok and western ar during the afternoon, with the
main synoptic boundary slowing over northern ar. models indicate
early day storms are likely over southeast mo, northeast ar and into
western ky and tn, dissipating by midday. this activity may
reinforce the effective frontal position into ar, where air mass
recovery will occur.
by late afternoon, scattered supercells are expected to form near
the surface trough from ar into northeast tx. given robust moisture
with upper 60s f dewpoints, 60+ kt deep layer shear and effective
srh maximized over ar, tornadoes will also be possible. the
combination of a capping inversion over much of the area, forced
cells timed with peak heating, and a potential downstream
outflow/enhanced zone of srh, a strong tornado is conditionally
possible.
...ny into me...
strong heating ahead of the cold front and a plume of 50s f
dewpoints will lead to 500-1000 j/kg mucape during the day, beneath
midlevel southwesterlies over 50 kt. storms are forecast to develop
after 18z from western into northern ny, with storms moving rapidly
northeastward across vt/nh and into me. forecast soundings indicate
40-50 kt deep-layer mean winds, which in combination with a mixed
boundary layer should support cells as well as bowing structures
capable of damaging gusts. the strongest cells may contain hail as
well. a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given 150-200+ m2/s2
effective srh depicted across northern areas, though veering
low-level flow and/or deepening mixed layers may mitigate that
potential somewhat.
..jewell.. 05/04/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z