spc ac 010559
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1259 am cdt mon jun 01 2026
valid 021200z - 031200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the northern plains...
...summary...
thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an
isolated tornado threat are expected on tuesday afternoon and
evening in parts of the northern plains. strong wind gusts and hail
will also be possible in parts of the southern and central high
plains. a few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern georgia
into northern and eastern florida.
...northern plains...
a mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward on tuesday over
the top of a moist and unstable airmass located in the northern
plains. at the surface, a south-to-north corridor of low-level
moisture will be in place across the dakotas. thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the western edge of the moist sector
during the afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent
associated with the shortwave trough. storms will likely increase in
coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, with multiple
small storm clusters moving northeastward across the region.
along and near the axis of low-level moisture, mlcape is forecast to
increase into the 1500 to 2500 j/kg range by afternoon. within this
moist airmass, the most favorable environment for severe storms is
forecast near the mid-level trough in central north dakota. forecast
soundings around bismarck at 21z have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 45
knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 c/km, suggesting that
supercells with large hail will be possible. in addition, late
afternoon forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in
the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range, which could support an isolated tornado
threat. severe wind gusts would also be possible with any organized
clusters that can persist from late afternoon into the evening.
...southern and central high plains...
southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on tuesday in the
southern and central plains, over the western edge of the moist
sector. although model forecasts suggest that large-scale forcing
will be limited in most areas, some models forecast a corridor of
maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon over eastern
colorado and eastern new mexico. this would support isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development, with storms moving
east-northeastward across the southern and central high plains
during the afternoon and evening. forecast soundings to the east of
this axis of low-level convergence during the late afternoon have
0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 8 c/km. this suggests that hail will be possible. isolated
severe wind gusts may also occur, especially if a convective cluster
can become somewhat organized during the early to mid evening.
...northern and eastern florida/southern georgia...
an upper-level trough will move southward into the southeast on
tuesday, as a cold front advances southward into southern georgia.
along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid
60s to lower 70s f will contribute to the development of moderate
instability by afternoon. within this unstable airmass, low-level
lapse rates will become steep during the mid to late afternoon,
which may support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger
multicells. an isolated potential for severe wind gusts will also be
possible in the afternoon along sea breeze boundaries near the coast
of northern and eastern florida.
..broyles.. 06/01/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z