spc ac 150556
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1256 am cdt fri may 15 2026
valid 161200z - 171200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the central plains...
...summary...
severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible saturday afternoon
and evening across parts of the central plains. scattered
thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds
across the lower to mid- missouri valley.
...synopsis...
a trough is expected to begin to deepen across the western us as
strengthening mid-level flow moves southward from the northern
pacific friday and saturday. downstream across the central us,
upper-level westerly flow will strengthen across the
central/northern rockies with strengthening lee troughing across the
plains. persistent southerly flow through the southern and central
plains should establish a broad warm sector across the plains,
bounded to the west by a dryline and to the north by a diffuse warm
frontal zone. scattered thunderstorm development is expected across
portions of the central high plains near a developing surface low
and along the warm front, with additional thunderstorms possible
along the dryline from eastern kansas to western oklahoma. scattered
thunderstorms will also be likely across portions of the lower to
mid missouri valley.
...central plains...
as a short-wave trough moves across the central plains late saturday
afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
deepening surface low and the warm front by the afternoon across
eastern co, northwest ks, and western ne. a broad warm sector will
be in place across much of the central plains, with low to mid 60s
dew points reaching as far north as southern nebraska. mlcape around
2000-2500 j/kg will be common by the afternoon. initially, strong
deep layer shear and largely linear hodographs will support
potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado. as the low-level jet strengthens into
the evening, low-level shear will increase but storm mode will also
likely shift to become more linear, with broken clusters/bowing
segments likely. a few of the mid-range hi-res cams depict a
stronger bowing segment moving across southern nebraska into the
evening in concert with the increasing of the low-level jet. this
may present a more focused corridor of significant wind potential.
confidence at this time in the exact location of this remains low.
higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends
align.
...western oklahoma/northwest texas...
much of western oklahoma and northwest texas near the dryline will
remain capped at the base of the eml. strong daytime heating and
favorable residence time within the dryline circulation may promote
an isolated supercell or two with potential for large to very large
hail and damaging winds by the late afternoon. signal for
development is most favorable near the red river in southern
oklahoma where cam guidance suggests potential and href calibrated
thunder probabilities are highest.
...midwest/oh valleys...
a leading mid-level shortwave trough with an enhanced belt of 50 kts
winds aloft will promote widely scattered thunderstorm development
into the mid- to upper missouri valley saturday afternoon. mucape
values on the order of 1000-2000 j/kg should support deep
convection, and effective bulk shear values near 30 knots within the
warm frontal zone may allow for organized convection with an
attendant threat for damaging wind.
..thornton.. 05/15/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z