spc ac 021724
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1224 pm cdt sat may 02 2026
valid 031200z - 041200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of
northern/central missouri into central illinois...
...summary...
a few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central missouri and central illinois on sunday.
...synopsis...
a broad cyclone across the midwest/east will remain in the wake of a
stronger upper trough departing the east coast early sunday. an
embedded shortwave trough will move southeastward into the lower
missouri and mid-missouri valleys during the afternoon. at the
surface, weak moisture return is expected on the western flank of
the southeastern surface high. a weak cold front will move into
central missouri/illinois and serve as a focus for possible
convective development.
...northern/central missouri into central illinois...
moisture return continues to be the main point of uncertainty in the
forecast. the typically moist nam still suggests dewpoints in the
low 50s f is possible. however, current surface/sounding
observational data shows poor moisture quality as far south as
central texas. moisture return is forecast to being overnight
saturday. with only weak low-level flow expected, the pattern simply
does not suggest robust moisture return. it seems more probable that
moisture that does advance northward will be shallow and have a
tendency to mix out during the day. all that said, temperatures
aloft will be rather cold (around -20 c at 500 mb). even upper 40s f
dewpoints will result in around 1000 to perhaps 1500 j/kg mlcape.
modest convergence along the surface front and aid from a shortwave
trough may promote isolated storm development by late
afternoon/early evening. a potent mid-level jet will increase
effective shear to 50-60 kt near the mississippi river decreasing to
near 40 kt in western missouri. large hail is possible with the
strongest storms. isolated strong/severe winds are also possible
given the well-mixed boundary layer. storms should weaken relatively
quickly after sunset given the drier boundary layer.
...northern california/southwest oregon...
convection is possible during the afternoon as mid-level
temperatures cool in close proximity to the upper low off the coast.
filtered surface heating could allow for a few stronger storms to
develop. small hail and gusty winds are possible. anvil-level flow
will be quite weak which will likely lead to storms that are only
strong briefly. the overall severe potential appears low.
..wendt.. 05/02/2026
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