spc ac 220558
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1258 am cdt mon jun 22 2026
valid 231200z - 241200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
eastern colorado into western kansas and northern oklahoma....
...summary...
scattered severe storms are expected across the central high plains
on tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the upper
mississippi valley. large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threats.
...synopsis...
an upper low initially over southern canada will shift into the
northern plains with a belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast
across the northern and central plains into the upper midwest. in
the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from
the northern plains into upper ms valley with a trailing boundary
extending southwest into the central high plains. elsewhere, a cold
front will move off the mid-atlantic coast with the trailing
extension of the boundary moving into the southeast.
...central high plains into the central/southern plains...
as mid-level flow strengthens across the rockies, a lee cyclone will
develop across eastern colorado and result in strengthening upslope
flow. moderate to strong instability is expected within this zone.
this instability, combined with nearly 50 knots of mid-level flow,
will result in a supercell environment. large to very large hail
will be the primary threat from this activity. eventual upscale
growth into a cluster is expected, and a potential bowing mcs across
western kansas and potentially northern oklahoma should result in an
increasing severe wind threat during the evening and into the early
overnight hours.
...portions of the northern plains into the upper midwest...
some elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period
from northern nebraska into southeast south dakota on the nose of a
modest low-level jet. these storms could pose some large hail
threat. additional storms may develop along the front during the
afternoon. strong mid-level flow will result in adequate shear for
storm organization, but instability may be the primary limiting
factor. extensive cloud cover may limit heating, but at least some
pockets of greater destabilization are possible. within these areas,
a threat for isolated large hail may exist.
...southeast...
a few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible tuesday
afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front from the gulf coast
to the eastern carolinas. poor lapse rates will be the primary
limiting factor for damaging wind gusts. however, as the event gets
closer and details regarding instability and frontal position become
more clear, wind probabilities may be warranted.
..bentley.. 06/22/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z