spc ac 141730
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1230 pm cdt sat mar 14 2026
valid 151200z - 161200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms in the
ark-la-tex/ark-la-miss to the wabash/lower oh valleys...
...summary...
scattered to widespread damaging winds along with tornadoes should
develop on sunday afternoon, persisting through sunday night across
a large portion of the south-central/southeast states into the
midwest/ohio valley. the greatest strong tornado and significant
severe wind threats appear to be from the ark-la-miss to the lower
ohio valley on sunday evening.
...synopsis...
an upper trough will amplify across the central states on sunday and
become centered from wi to the ark-la-tex by 12z monday. associated
surface cyclone will track from the ia/mo border to lower mi,
deepening sunday evening/night. as this occurs, attendant cold front
will accelerate eastward across the mid-ms to the oh valleys.
trailing portion of the front will sweep south-southeast into the
northwest gulf to central gulf coast through monday morning.
primary changes with the level 3-enh risk are to include a
10-percent tornado area, southward expansion of 45-percent wind, and
addition of 15-percent and cig1 hail areas. expansion of level
1-2/mrgl-slgt risk areas has occurred over the southeast for mainly
the 06-12z period monday. uncertainty is greatest on the western
extent for where convection should become severe, and the northern
extent within a thermodynamically challenged environment.
...south-central/southeast states to the midwest...
in the wake of morning elevated convection over a portion of the
mid/upper ms valley, midday convective development should occur
along the highly convergent surface front across a part of the
mid-ms valley to the ozarks. this activity may initially remain
shallow, before deepening and greatly expand in coverage through the
afternoon as it impinges on richer boundary-layer moisture towards
the ark-la-tex and the mid-south portion of the ms valley. by late
afternoon, an extensively long qlcs should become established from
il south-southwestward. semi-discrete supercell development appears
most favored along the southern portion of the broader convective
plume near the front and downstream within a strengthening
warm/moist conveyor. this should support potential for large hail
and a couple strong tornadoes before supercells become absorbed
within the broader qlcs during the evening. this scenario should
also yield an increasingly pinched-off warm-moist sector from the
mid-south to tn valley. despite this aspect, substantial
strengthening of 700-mb winds on either side of the front, initially
across the mid-south vicinity and expanding to the oh to tn valleys,
will yield a setup conductive for scattered to widespread damaging
wind swaths through the evening.
on sunday night, the northern extent of the severe threat should
become more sporadic as surface-based instability becomes/remains
minimal. but the very fast lower-level wind fields may yield
persistence of some damaging wind/brief tornado potential eastward
in the oh valley/southern great lakes. farther south, there are
increasing signals for renewed low-level warm conveyor convective
development across the central to northeast gulf coast vicinity
early monday morning. deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to
semi-discrete supercells just ahead of/merging into the progressive
qlcs. this should foster a period of increased large hail/sustained
tornado potential. otherwise, damaging winds will remain favored
from at least the fl panhandle to the southern appalachians.
..grams.. 03/14/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z