spc ac 150549
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1249 am cdt sat aug 15 2020
valid 161200z - 171200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the upper midwest and central plains...and over the ohio vicinity...
a few strong/marginally severe thunderstorms capable of producing
gusty winds and hail will be possible across the ohio vicinity, and
from western wisconsin to the northeast new mexico vicinity on
an amplified upper flow field -- with a large ridge in the west and
a corresponding trough over the east -- will persist sunday across
the conus. at the surface, a weak front is forecast to move off the
southeastern u.s. coast, while a weak front shifts southeastward
across the upper midwest and central plains. elsewhere, the surface
pattern will remain weak/largely nondescript through the period.
...western wisconsin southwestward to northeastern new mexico...
as several disturbances rotate southward/southeastward around the
periphery of the western u.s. ridge, one more prominent short-wave
trough is expected to shift southeastward across the upper midwest
and plains states sunday. this feature will be accompanied by an
associated surface cool front -- likewise shifting southeastward
across the central portion of the country.
during the afternoon, destabilization in the vicinity of the
advancing front will likely support isolated to widely scattered
storm development along the boundary -- from portions of wisconsin
southwestward to the southern rockies. with mid-level
northwesterlies generally expected in the 25 to 35 kt range atop the
front, a few stronger storms could evolve, along with attendant risk
for locally gusty/damaging winds and possibly hail, primarily during
the afternoon and early evening hours.
...ohio and portions of adjacent states...
as a weak cyclonic disturbance -- embedded in west-northwesterly
mid-level flow -- shifts across the great lakes region, and
associated/very weak surface trough will cross the eastern
michigan/ohio region during the day. weak lapse rates aloft will
hinder diurnal destabilization potential to some degree, resulting
in modest destabilization -- though still likely sufficient to
support potential for widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm
development. as updrafts evolve, presence of 25 to 30 kt mid-level
west-northwesterlies may permit some organization -- which would
likely be associated with potential for locally stronger wind gusts.
given potential for a near-severe gust or two, will maintain 5%
wind probability across this area, through early evening.
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z