spc ac 140447
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1147 pm cdt sat jun 13 2026
valid 151200z - 161200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
eastern nm...southeast co...and western parts of the ok/tx
panhandles...
...summary...
scattered thunderstorms over the southern rockies may result in some
severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and
evening. elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the
gulf coast states to the carolinas, and across the northern
plains/upper midwest.
...synopsis...
broad, upper troughing will envelop much of the conus from the
rockies to the east coast on monday. a surface front will be
oriented from the mid-atlantic coast southwestward across the gulf
coast states and into central/southwest tx.
...southern rockies/high plains...
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of
the southern rockies and adjacent high plains in southeast
co/eastern nm and possibly as far east as western parts of the ok/tx
panhandles during the late afternoon and evening. a weak shortwave
impulse is expected to move over the southern rockies while
southerly low-level flow results in modest northward moisture return
within the post-frontal upslope flow regime. southerly low-level
flow increasing with height and becoming northwesterly above 700 mb
will provide sufficient effective shear for some storm organization.
high-based convection will pose a risk for strong outflow gusts,
with some potential for a forward propagating cluster moving across
eastern nm toward the panhandles via cold pool/outflow interactions.
overall modest shear, weak instability and a lack of low-level jet
development will limit overall severe potential, though a couple of
severe storms will be possible.
...northern plains/upper midwest...
a shortwave impulse rotating across the northern plains/upper
midwest within broader upper troughing will support isolated to
scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms within a dry airmass.
some gusty winds could accompany this activity, but a dearth of
boundary layer moisture and weak instability will preclude severe
probabilities.
...southeast...
across the southeast, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of
the southward sagging surface front. poor lapse rates will limit
stronger destabilization, but a belt of 1000-1500 j/kg mlcape is
possible across southern al/ga into northern fl. thunderstorm
clusters could produce locally gusty winds, but organized severe
potential will be limited by weak vertical shear, poor lapse rates,
and little large-scale ascent.
..leitman.. 06/14/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z