spc ac 011728
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1228 pm cdt mon jun 01 2026
valid 021200z - 031200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over the northern
plains...
...summary...
thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an
isolated tornado threat are expected on tuesday afternoon and
evening in parts of the northern plains. strong wind gusts and
marginal hail will also be possible in parts of the southern and
central high plains. a few severe wind gusts may also occur from
southern georgia into northern and eastern florida.
...northern plains...
a slow-moving upper low will exist from northern mt into southern
sk, with a belt of 30-40 kt southwesterlies at 500 mb from eastern
mt/wy into the dakotas. meanwhile, a surface trough and weak front
will develop from central wy into western nd by 00z. cool
temperatures aloft with the upper trough combined with daytime
heating and persistent southerly winds/moisture advection will yield
moderate instability ahead of the front. effective shear in excess
of 40 kt and steep lapse rates aloft will support cells capable of
damaging hail. low-level winds will not be particularly strong, but
some increase in the low-level jet will occur after 00z and may
support mcs potential during the evening with areas of damaging
winds. a couple tornadoes may occur as well, perhaps over eastern wy
with the initial activity, or into nd where temp/dewpoint
depressions may be less.
...central to southern high plains...
although a weak surface ridge will exist over the region,
temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool with -10 c at 500 mb
as far south as nm and ok. easterly surface winds will maintain a
moist air mass into ks/co, with southeasterly winds into nm.
scattered storms are likely after 21z along the front range and
extending south across central and eastern nm, and some of this
activity will persist into southwest ne, western ks and the ok/tx
panhandles late. locally damaging gusts appear most likely as shear
will remain weak.
isolated cells may also develop near the dryline during the
afternoon from southwest ks into western ok, with localize wind and
hail potential.
...far southern ga and al into northern fl...
an upper trough will dive southeastward across the mid atlantic and
into the southeast with a cold front pushing south across ga and
into al during the day and into northern fl late. a moist air mass
will exist ahead of the front, with mucape at or above 2000 j/kg.
storms will develop along the front as the air mass heats, with
increasing storm coverage. deep-layer shear may be sufficient for a
few embedded cells, with both wind and marginal hail potential as
they move southeastward from southern ga into northern fl including
the jacksonville area. additional storms are likely over the eastern
fl peninsula where westerly surface winds will enhance convergence,
with strong downbursts and perhaps marginal hail.
..jewell.. 06/01/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z