spc ac 301733
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1233 pm cdt sat may 30 2026
valid 311200z - 011200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the dakotas
into the ozarks...and into parts of western texas...
...summary...
a few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the
central u.s. on sunday, from the dakotas into the ozarks, and across
southwest texas.
...synopsis...
a weak negatively tilted shortwave trough will move northward across
the northern rockies and plains on sunday, with cool midlevel
temperatures. mid to high level winds of 30 to 60 kt will stretch
from co into ks and ne, behind the upper wave. this will also result
in midlevel drying across the central plains.
a surface trough is generally forecast to exist along the length of
the high plains, with low pressure centers over sd and western tx
during the afternoon. high pressure will exist from the great lakes
to the east coast with an upper trough over the northeast, and
southerly surface winds will maintain low-level moisture west of
this surface high from the lower ms valley northwestward across the
mo valley.
...dakotas southeastward into ar...
storms may be ongoing over southern mo or northern ar sunday
morning, with southwest low-level flow/warm advection supporting
continued unstable inflow. conditionally, an mcs is possible, with
potential to persist southeastward into ar and perhaps even ms later
in the day. this is a bit uncertain, but locally severe gusts would
be possible.
farther north, scattered daytime storms are likely beneath the upper
wave from central sd into nd. temperatures aloft will be cool and
may support hail despite weak shear.
to the south, diurnal storms appear most likely from eastern ks into
western mo late in the afternoon and into the evening as moderate to
strong instability develops. some of this may depend on how much
early day activity occurs, and if any outflow boundaries exist.
conditionally, a couple supercells cannot be ruled out with hail and
brief tornado risk.
...ok into western tx...
strong heating will occur along a dryline extending roughly from
north-central ok into northwest tx. weak surface convergence, 60s f
dewpoints and a narrow corridor of weak inhibition may yield
isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. these storms would likely
be brief, but could yield locally strong gusts or marginal hail.
farther south, storm coverage will be greater into southwest tx,
where southeast surface winds will maintain moisture flux into the
area during the afternoon. scattered storms are likely here, with
locally strong outflow winds and perhaps marginal hail.
..jewell.. 05/30/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z