spc ac 111722
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1222 pm cdt wed mar 11 2026
valid 121200z - 131200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the florida
panhandle into central georgia and the carolinas...
...summary...
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds
across parts of the southeast on thursday morning into the
afternoon.
...synopsis...
a strong synoptic cold front is evident in latest surface
observations pushing east/southeast across the oh valley and lower
ms valley. thunderstorm development will become increasingly focused
along the front across the lower ms valley and southeast
today/tonight, and will likely be still ongoing by 12 utc thursday.
thunderstorm potential will become increasingly confined to the fl
peninsula by the evening hours as the front moves off shore.
...florida panhandle into central georgia...
strong (40-50 knot) deep-layer wind shear will likely be in place
across far southeast al into southwest ga and the fl panhandle at
the start of the forecast period. while buoyancy will be marginal, a
few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible within a
convective band based on latest href/refs ensemble output. a steady
weakening trend is expected through the day as the band drifts into
an environment with poor lapse rates over the fl peninsula/southeast
ga, but a few instances of damaging winds appear possible during the
12-16 utc period.
...carolinas...
heating ahead of the approaching cold front will likely support
sbcape values of around 500 j/kg across the central to coastal
carolinas by mid-afternoon. meager buoyancy/lapse rates will
generally modulate convective intensity as thunderstorms develop
along the front. however, 40-50 knot flow near the top of the
boundary layer and around 40 knots of 0-3 km bwd may support loosely
organized cells/clusters capable of sporadic damaging wind gusts
before the front pushes off the coast.
...northern plains...
sporadic lightning flashes appear likely during the late afternoon
hours amid low-level heating under a pocket of cold temperatures
aloft associated with a robust clipper low. strengthening winds
within the lowest 0.5-1 km may support very localized stronger
gusts, but confidence in a more robust severe threat remains
limited.
..moore.. 03/11/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z