spc ac 200628
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1228 am cst fri feb 20 2026
valid 211200z - 221200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from southeast
alabama and the northern florida panhandle east into southern south
carolina...
...summary...
thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern gulf and
south atlantic coast states saturday, accompanied by at least some
risk for damaging wind gusts.
... discussion ...
strong west/southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
southern and eastern united states at the start of the forecast
period. a subtle southern stream shortwave trough will amplify on
saturday as it interacts with this stronger mid-level flow and
approaching northern stream trough.
a remnant frontal boundary will be stretched from southern north
carolina southwestward toward southeast texas. a surface low will
develop along this frontal boundary during the day on saturday in
response to the amplifying mid-level trough before quickly out to
sea by sunday morning.
ongoing thunderstorms at the start of the forecast period should
persist through the morning, as the mid-level wave amplifies and
surface low develops. along and south of the front, modest diurnal
heating will result in an environment with up to 500 to perhaps 1000
j/kg of most unstable cape. long, straight hodographs largely
parallel to the frontal zone should favor small linear/bowing
segments over supercells, despite the strong deep-layer shear
present. a marginal threat for damaging wind gusts will accompany
any sustained thunderstorm segment. a modest low-level jet during
the morning hours may provide enough low-level streamwise vorticity
to support a brief tornado or two. this threat should diminish
during the afternoon as the low-level jet veers and weakens.
..marsh.. 02/20/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z