spc ac 150607
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0107 am cdt sun mar 15 2026
valid 161200z - 171200z
...there is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms from northern
south carolina across north carolina and into virginia and
maryland...
...summary...
widespread severe storms are forecast on monday for parts of the
mid-atlantic states and southeast. tornadoes, potentially strong,
and particularly damaging winds are most likely from south carolina
into maryland during the afternoon. significant severe storm
potential overall will extend from eastern georgia/florida panhandle
into pennsylvania.
...synopsis...
a large and deepening upper trough will pivot northeastward out of
the oh/tn valleys, across the appalachians and into the mid atlantic
on monday, while a surface low deepens into southern quebec. a sharp
pre-frontal trough will extend southward across ny, pa, and into the
carolinas/ga by late afternoon, with a corridor of significant
pressure falls timed with the diurnal heating maximum. a cold front
will push rapidly east across ga and the fl panhandle during the day
with a bit slower progress across the piedmont and into pa. gusty
south winds ahead of the cold front will maintain 60s f dewpoints
across the entire region, and as far north as southern pa, just
after warm front passage by late afternoon.
just above the surface, southerly 850 mb winds will increase from 50
to 75 kt, resulting in extreme shear profiles over a large area.
large-scale ascent and shear will increase coincident with the peak
heating hours, resulting in a potentially widespread severe weather
event during the afternoon.
...from georgia and the florida panhandle...
early day storms may be ongoing from the southern appalachians
toward the fl panhandle monday morning, and the environment will
already be favorable for supercells including tornado potential.
forecast soundings indicate substantial instability with mid to
perhaps upper 60s f along with ample shear. these storms may also
produce hail, as midlevel lapse rates approach 7 c/km.
...carolinas into md/pa and vicinity...
areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should
rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual
destabilization over the entire area. as the surface trough deepens,
low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day.
supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold
front from sc into nc and southern va. models vary with degree of
instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective
srh of at least 300-400 m2/s2. fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest
a long tracked tornado will be possible.
meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front
pushes east, stretching from the carolinas to southern ny. with a
moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to
produce particularly damaging winds, along with qlcs tornadoes
across the remainder of sc/nc, va, md, and much of southern pa. this
will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. the activity may
eventually interact with cool trajectories off the atlantic during
the evening.
..jewell.. 03/15/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z