spc ac 220559
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1259 am cdt wed mar 22 2023
valid 231200z - 241200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from
central/eastern oklahoma into the texas hill country...
...summary...
thunderstorms capable of hail, some very large, and damaging gusts
are possible thursday afternoon through friday morning across the
southern plains.
...synopsis...
presence of western conus troughing and subtropical ridging over the
gulf of mexico will contribute to a belt of enhanced southwesterly
flow extending from northern mexico northeastward across the central
plains and mid ms valley early thursday. a pair of shortwave troughs
will be embedded within this belt of stronger flow, one initially
near the mid mo valley and the other across southern az/northern
mexico. both shortwaves are expected to progress northeastward, with
the second shortwave moving through the southern high plains during
the afternoon/evening, reaching ks/ok by early friday morning.
the surface pattern thursday morning will likely feature a low near
the northern il/in border vicinity, with a cold front extending
southwestward to another low over northwest tx. this front is
expected to move eastward/southeastward across the oh valley, while
the southern portion moves more southeastward/southward across the
ozark plateau and much of ok. guidance varies on the position of the
front over ok. secondary surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over
the tx low rolling plains thursday afternoon, with the resulting low
then moving eastward into north tx.
...oh valley thursday morning...
elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low
across northern il/northern in early thursday morning. strong
vertical shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place,
supporting the potential for a few strong updrafts capable of hail.
these early morning storms are expected to continue eastward, likely
outrunning most of the buoyancy as they move into oh during the late
morning.
...southern plains thursday afternoon through friday morning...
low 60s dewpoints are expected be in place along the front
early thursday morning, likely increasing into the mid 60s by the
late afternoon. recent guidance has trended slower with the front,
keeping more of central and eastern ok ahead of the front during the
afternoon. increasing low-level moisture coupled with modest daytime
heating should destabilize the airmass south of the
front by the late afternoon. this instability coupled with
convergence along the front is expected to result in thunderstorm
development, likely beginning over central ok. vertical shear will
be strong, and the initial more cellular development may produce
large hail. front-parallel deep shear should result in any
near-front development tracking northward over the front quickly,
likely limiting the surface-based warm sector development. even so,
a brief temporal window for may exist for damaging gusts and/or a
tornado.
thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther south, ahead of
the deepening surface low expected to move into northwest tx during
the early evening. a more cross-boundary vertical shear
vector is anticipated here, which could support a greater potential
for storms to stay surface-based. however, the presence of low-level
stability suggest an elevated storm mode, with the cold front acting
as the initiation mechanism. like the storms farther north, hail is
the main severe threat, with some very large hail possible. as the
low and associated front continue eastward, storm coverage should
increase southward across the tx hill country/edwards plateau. hail
and damaging gusts are possible with this line of storms as it moves
eastward toward central tx early friday morning.
..mosier.. 03/22/2023
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z