spc ac 261658
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1158 am cdt tue may 26 2026
valid 271200z - 281200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on wednesday over
portions of the mid atlantic region...
...summary...
severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts may occur on wednesday
over parts of the mid atlantic region.
...mid atlantic region...
a strong shortwave trough will track southeastward across ontario on
wednesday, with mid-level height falls and cooling aloft occurring
over much of the northeast states. at the surface, the primary
surface boundary will extend from southern oh across wv/md into
va/de. a warm/humid and moderately unstable air mass will be
present along and south of the boundary, promoting the development
of scattered thunderstorms from eastern ky to the coast. storms
will track southeastward through the afternoon and early evening
through an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and moderately
strong westerly flow above the boundary layer. this would support a
risk of damaging wind gusts in the more organized cells/clusters.
isolated afternoon thunderstorms may also form over the higher
terrain of western nc with a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds.
...tx panhandle...
a shortwave trough currently over eastern nm will continue to rotate
northward across the plains on wednesday, with the upper thermal
trough present over eastern co/western ks and the tx/ok panhandles.
a convectively enhanced surface boundary is expected to lie across
the northern tx panhandle by afternoon, with strong heating
occurring to the south of front. this should provide sufficient
destabilization for widely scattered thunderstorm development by
late afternoon. despite relatively weak vertical shear, steep
mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft suggest a risk of
multicell storms capable of large hail.
..hart.. 05/26/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z