spc ac 270525
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1225 am cdt wed may 27 2026
valid 281200z - 291200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from central
oregon into eastern washington...northern idaho and northwest
montana...
...summary...
isolated severe storms are possible on thursday over western
montana, northern idaho, and into central oregon/washington. a few
damaging gusts or marginal hail will be possible.
...synopsis & discussion...
an upper low will move slowly from ca into nv on thursday, with a
leading midlevel speed max forecast to move from ut northward across
id, or and wa. cooling aloft will occur along with 40-50 kt 500 mb
winds enhancing deep-layer shear. a surface trough will also deepen
during the afternoon roughly from ut into eastern wa, with strong
heating and steepening lapse rates aiding destabilization.
scattered storms are forecast to develop by early afternoon over
central or, with additional activity extending northeastward across
northern id, eastern wa and northwest mt. though total cape values
are questionably high by some models, sufficient instability will
exist, along with favorable large-scale ascent and steep lapse
rates. this will favor northwestward-moving cells and perhaps a few
bows, with at least isolated severe gusts or marginal hail expected.
elsewhere, scattered storms are likely during the afternoon and
evening from ks/ok into the southeast. winds aloft and shear will be
weak across this entire region, and severe storms are largely not
expected. still, sporadic strong gusts cannot be ruled out.
..jewell.. 05/27/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z