spc ac 240546
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1246 am cdt sun may 24 2026
valid 251200z - 261200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for
monday. isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the great
plains, upper midwest, and southeast.
...synopsis...
a high amplitude ridge will build in from the west across the plains
on d2/monday with height rises and weakening mid-level flow amid
warming surface temperatures. an upper level low will begin to
deepen and move inland across the pacific northwest. widely
scattered areas of thunderstorm development can be expected from the
southwest to the central plains/upper midwest and across the
southeast. a few strong storms will be possible across the plains to
the midwest and in the southeast.
...central plains into the upper midwest/great lakes region...
while moderate buoyancy will extend across much of the plains into
the midwest monday afternoon, generally weak flow should temper the
more organized severe threat. modest west-northwesterly flow will
overspread portions of mn/wi and upper mi with a quick weak
mid-level wave moving through the great lakes trough. generally, the
best forcing for ascent will be early with height rises expected by
the afternoon. this leads to low confidence in thunderstorm
development, though the air mass could conditionally support severe
potential.
...southern nm into west tx...
an isolated strong storm or two could be possible from southern new
mexico into western texas as an embedded shortwave moves across the
southwest. deeply mixed profiles across new mexico may support a
strong to severe gust. however, the deeper moisture remains
displaced to the east across western texas.
...parts of the gulf coast/southeast...
widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected overnight
d1/sunday into d2/monday across the gulf coast states. depending on
how this evolves and where resulting mcvs occur, a corridor of
severe wind potential may be possible. for now confidence in the
placement of mesoscale features remains too low.
..thornton.. 05/24/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z