spc ac 240558
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1258 am cdt wed jun 24 2026
valid 251200z - 261200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the central/southern high plains into southern kansas and northern
oklahoma and into the ozarks....
...summary...
scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the high plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. storms
are also expected across southern kansas and northern oklahoma into
the ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.
...synopsis...
a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through the great lakes
during the day on thursday. a weak surface low will move across
ontario with a trailing cold front into the ohio valley. farther
west, several mid-level shortwave troughs will be embedded within
the broader zonal flow across the plains. the most prominant feature
will be a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to move from
eastern colorado thursday morning to the ozarks by the evening. a
lee surface cyclone is forecast in the texas panhandle vicinity.
...high plains...
widespread convection/cloud cover is likely from northern colorado
into eastern wyoming on thursday morning. this will limit
surface-based instability across the region for much of the day.
eventual destabilization is expected by late afternoon/early evening
as the cloud cover clears. as a mid-level shortwave trough moves
through wyoming, expect storms to develop during the evening with
some severe wind potential. the lack of strong heating has lessened
hail and significant wind potential across this region. therefore,
the cig1 area has been removed.
farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected which,
combined with moderate mid-level flow, may support some supercell
threat with weak upslope flow across southeast kansas, and
continuing east along the frontal boundary into the ok/tx
panhandles.
...northern oklahoma/southern kansas into the ozarks...
a morning mcs is expected to move along/north of a frontal zone
across kansas during the morning on thursday. in the wake of this
morning mcs, strong destabilization is forecast with moderate
mid-level flow aloft. therefore, supercells are expected to develop
on the remnant outflow/frontal zone thursday afternoon and evening
from southern kansas and northern oklahoma potentially into the
ozarks. given storm motion that should be parallel to the boundary,
the enhanced vorticity along this zone could result in a locally
greater tornado threat. in addition, most guidance shows a
strengthening low-level jet across oklahoma and into southern
kansas. this may support a strong tornado threat, particularly
during the evening.
...eastern ohio to southern new york...
weak to moderate instability is expected to develop across eastern
ohio and western pennsylvania thursday morning with dewpoints in the
mid 60s. moderate to strong forcing on the leading edge of a compact
mid-level jet streak should result in storm development along the
front by mid-afternoon. strong shear should assist in storm
organization, but weak lapse rates may limit overall updraft
strength. due to the weak to moderate instability and strong shear,
5% wind probabilities are warranted.
..bentley.. 06/24/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z