spc ac 020657
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1257 am cst mon mar 02 2026
valid 031200z - 041200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of
western oklahoma into south-central and eastern kansas...
...summary...
isolated severe storms with large hail will be possible tuesday and
tuesday night from parts of western oklahoma into south-central and
eastern kansas.
...southern and central plains...
at mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the
southern rockies as flow remains southwesterly over the southern and
central plains. at the surface, a cold front will advance southward
across kansas during the day and into western and northern oklahoma
during the evening. increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development near the front and across the post-frontal airmass
during the evening and overnight. nam forecast soundings from
western oklahoma into south-central kansas around midnight have
effective shear of 40 to 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in
the 7.5 to 8 c/km range. this suggests that isolated large hail will
be possible with rotating storms. the threat is expected to remain
marginal and could persist into the early morning hours on
wednesday.
..broyles.. 03/02/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z