spc ac 170525
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1225 am cdt wed jun 17 2026
valid 181200z - 191200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from kentucky into
the mid-atlantic and northeast...
...summary...
isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from
kentucky to the mid-atlantic, and across parts of the northeast.
damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity.
...synopsis...
an upper shortwave trough over the lower great lakes/upper ohio
valley thursday morning will pivot northeast across the northeast
through evening. strong deep layer southwesterly flow associated
with this feature will already be in place at the beginning of the
period, with 500 mb flow from 60-80 kt stretching across portions of
the northeast. meanwhile, an intense 850 mb low-level jet will lift
northeast across the central appalachians, the mid-atlantic, and the
northeast. a surface low over southern ontario will pivot northeast
into quebec, while a trailing cold front stretches from the lower
great lakes west/southwest toward the mid-ms valley and the ok/tx
panhandles thursday morning. the northern extent of this boundary
will spread east across the northeast while the western extent
across the ohio valley into the plains slowly sags southward.
across the gulf coast states, the remnants of current potential
tropical cyclone one will migrate eastward across the region. this
feature could locally enhance deep layer shear amid a very moist and
modestly airmass.
...kentucky to the mid-atlantic/northeast vicinity...
convection will be ongoing thursday morning in the vicinity of the
surface cold front. ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass
will be in place. instability will likely be muted from pa/ny into
new england due to cloud cover, poor lapse rates and a narrow/modest
warm sector. nevertheless, intense deep-layer flow will overspread
the northeast and fast moving storms could produce damaging wind
gusts.
stronger instability is expected in a corridor from ky into the
mid-atlantic where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place.
this corridor also may see stronger heating. the strong 850 mb
low-level jet will gradually weaken through the day as it lifts
northeast, but strong deep-layer flow will persist atop this
moist/unstable airmass. scattered storms are expected during the
afternoon into evening, posing mainly a risk of damaging gusts.
...gulf coast/southeast...
the remnants of current potential tropical cyclone one will migrate
east/northeast across the region on thursday. a very moist airmass
will be in place, and where stronger heating can occur, moderate
destabilization is expected. furthermore, the remnant low will
locally enhance vertical shear. isolated strong storms capable of
producing gusty winds and a tornado or two will be possible.
...southern plains to mid-south...
severe thunderstorm potential is a bit more uncertain from
ok/northwest tx into the ozarks vicinity. a very moist and unstable
airmass will be in place ahead of the southward sagging cold front.
however, large-scale ascent will be weak and capping could limit
storm coverage. if storms can develop ahead of the front, some risk
for strong wind and hail will be possible.
..leitman.. 06/17/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z