spc ac 141705
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1105 am cst sun dec 14 2025
valid 151200z - 161200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
a few lightning flashes may occur in western oregon and washington
tomorrow (monday).
...synopsis...
a broad but low-amplitude upper ridge will become established east
of the rockies while a de-amplifying upper trough overspreads the
northwestern u.s. tomorrow (monday). surface high pressure/colder
air will prevail east of the ms river, while dry, statically stable
air becomes predominant across the plains into portions of the
interior west. thunderstorm potential will therefore be limited
across most of the u.s. one exception will be portions of the
pacific northwest, where colder temperatures aloft will accompany
the aforementioned de-amplifying upper trough. this will yield scant
buoyancy, amid appreciable forcing for ascent, to support a few
lightning flashes wherever deep-moist convection can develop.
furthermore, 50+ kt flow, within a few hundred m above ground level,
will develop with the passage of the upper trough. if a stronger
storm core can materialize, enough downward momentum transport may
take place to support a few damaging gusts. however, confidence in
this scenario is too low for the introduction of severe
probabilities at this time.
..squitieri.. 12/14/2025
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0700z