spc ac 281751
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1251 pm cdt sat mar 28 2026
valid 291200z - 301200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern
arizona and the southern florida peninsula sunday afternoon and
evening. severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...synopsis...
a zonal flow regime will exist across the conus on sunday, with the
main upper jet situated across the northern states. areas of cooler
air aloft will exist from baja ca and extending into parts of the
southwest, with warmer air aloft across the gulf coast.
at the surface, a prominent area of high pressure will be centered
over the mid atlantic, with ridge extending across the southeastern
states and into the northern gulf. a surface trough will develop
across the high plains, with early cycle moisture return across the
plains.
thunderstorm chances will be limited to parts of southern az during
the late afternoon as heating, steep lapse rates aloft and
increasing low-level moisture support marginal instability in a weak
shear environment. locally gusty winds are likely with storms over
southern az.
elsewhere, a deep easterly low-level flow regime will exist across
fl, and although midlevel lapse rates will be poor, heating along
with deep moisture through 700 mb may support isolated
thunderstorms.
..jewell.. 03/28/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z