spc ac 271744
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1244 pm cdt mon apr 27 2026
valid 281200z - 291200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for
north-central/northeast texas...southeast
oklahoma...central/southern arkansas...northern louisiana...northern
mississippi...
...summary...
scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable
across parts of the southeastern great plains through the lower
mississippi and tennessee valleys tuesday afternoon and evening.
large to very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and a few
tornadoes are possible.
...southeastern great plains into the tennessee valley...
within broad southwesterly flow aloft, a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough is forecast to move from the south-central rockies toward the
mid ms valley on tuesday. other low-amplitude vorticity maxima may
move from tx toward the tn valley and southeast, to the south of the
primary shortwave trough. these features will impinge upon a
reservoir of strong instability extending from the southern plains
into the lower ms valley, resulting in a potentially active severe
weather episode tuesday afternoon into tuesday night.
elevated convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the
region tuesday morning, which could pose a threat for large hail and
locally gusty winds, especially within the more favorable lapse
rate/buoyancy environment across the southern plains into the
arklatex. strong diurnal destabilization will be possible by tuesday
afternoon, to the east of a dryline across tx, and along and to the
warm side of an outflow-influenced front extending from southeast ok
toward the mid ms valley. evolution of storm development remains
uncertain, but initiation will be possible along the dryline/front
and any other outflow boundaries in place by afternoon.
strong buoyancy (mlcape of 3000-4000 j/kg across tx, and 2000 j/kg
as far east as the arklamiss) and favorable deep-layer shear will
support supercell development, with an attendant threat of very
large hail initially. modestly enhanced low-level flow from east tx
into the arklamiss will also support some tornado potential, with
some conditional risk of a strong tornado with any sustained
supercell. an increase in storm coverage should lead to development
of storm clusters and potentially an mcs that would spread eastward
into the evening, with one or more swaths of damaging wind possible.
storms should eventually weaken late in the period as they encounter
weaker instability with eastward extent, but the severe threat could
persist through much of the night with any organized storm
structures.
..dean.. 04/27/2026
click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product
note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z