spc ac 151730
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1230 pm cdt sun mar 15 2026
valid 161200z - 171200z
...there is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms in parts of
south carolina...north carolina...virginia...maryland...and
washington d.c...
...summary...
widespread severe storms are anticipated on monday across the
southeast and mid-atlantic states. tornadoes, some strong, and
particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of south
carolina to maryland during the afternoon.
...synopsis...
an expansive upper trough from wi to the ark-la-tex will further
amplify as the basal portion pivots rapidly northeastward towards
the appalachians. a deep surface cyclone over lower mi will progress
into qc, with an occluded front arcing southward to a minor low over
western to central ny by monday afternoon. a sharp cold front will
extend south of this low across the southeast into the northeast
gulf, sweeping east across the entire atlantic seaboard by 12z
tuesday.
...east...
no change has been made to the ongoing level 4-mdt risk, with some
expansion of the 3-enh in ga, as well as expansions of 1-2/mrgl-slgt
across ny and fl. the highly meridional deep-layer flow regime
suggests that surface-based instability appears more likely to
develop into ny on monday afternoon. this type of flow regime, along
with substantial early-day convection south, both render some
uncertainty on intensity amplitudes for wind/tornado across much of
the enh-mdt risk areas.
a broken band of pre-frontal convection should be ongoing at 12z
monday from the lee of the southern appalachians to the fl
panhandle. the downstream environment will already be favorable for
supercells including strong tornado potential. with mid to upper 60s
surface dew points and initially modestly steep mid-level lapse
rates, a plume of moderate buoyancy with mlcape of 1000-2000 j/kg
should diurnally expand from north fl through at least sc. any
semi-discrete supercells in this environment will have the potential
to produce a strong tornado and large hail through early afternoon
before large-scale outflow likely shifts offshore of the ga/north fl
coast.
destabilization farther north from nc to the de valley appears more
uncertain, with potential for near-coastal convection within the
low-level warm conveyor limiting more expansive/robust
boundary-layer heating. a plume of weak mlcape up to 1000 j/kg
should still develop across the piedmont into parts of the coastal
plain. although flow fields will be highly meridional, they will be
quite strong with an intense 700-mb jet strengthening across the
southeast behind the surface cold front. this will yield enlarged
low-level hodograph curvature across much of the pre-frontal
warm-moist sector.
even weak boundary-layer heating will be sufficient for
intensification of an extensive qlcs from western to central
portions of ny/pa southward through va/nc towards midday/early
afternoon. embedded supercell structures should be most pronounced
south, where breaks in the qlcs are more probable. some of these
could be long-track with sporadic strong tornadoes, in addition to
the background widespread damaging winds anticipated with the qlcs.
this activity will eventually interact with cool trajectories near
the coastal atlantic and should result in waning of severe potential
in the northeast near sunset.
..grams.. 03/15/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z