spc ac 040533
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1233 am cdt mon may 04 2026
valid 051200z - 061200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across northeast
texas...southeast oklahoma...arkansas...and southeast missouri...
...summary...
isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern oklahoma and
northeast texas into the mid-south. additional strong storms are
possible across parts of the northeast.
...synopsis...
upper troughing centered on the north-central u.s. will phase with
an upper shortwave trough over the southwest on tuesday. as this
occurs, strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will develop
across the southern plains to the ohio valley and into the
northeast. at the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from
southern lower mi to a surface low over central ok. a dryline will
extend southwestward from the central ok low into central/southwest
tx. the cold front is expected to develop east/southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from the northeast to southern ar and
northern tx by wednesday morning. two areas of severe potential are
expected to be focused ahead of the surface cold front, one across
parts of the southern plains to the mid-south and the second across
the northeast.
...southern plains to the mid-south...
southerly low-level flow will transport 60s f dewpoints northward to
the east of the surface dryline and as far north as the mo bootheel
vicinity. some morning convection or cloud cover is expected across
parts of southern mo toward the mo/oh river confluence. persistent
warm advection may result in scattered cloudiness across much of the
arklatex and ozarks vicinity as well. nevertheless, modest cooling
aloft by late afternoon will aid in steepening midlevel lapse rates
atop the moist boundary layer, supporting mlcape in the 1000-2000
j/kg range. instability will decrease with northeast extent into the
mid-south. scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. convection may tend to
become linear more quickly across the mid-south where shear vectors
are parallel to the surface boundary. further south across parts of
ar into northeast tx closer to the surface triple point, low-level
flow may be less veered and shear vectors supporting initially
discrete cells. any convection that can remain
semi-discrete/cellular will pose a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a tornado or two. with time, convection will evolve into
linear segments as a low-level jet increases and the front begins to
develop southeastward.
the risk is more conditional along the dryline with southwestward
extent across tx. forcing for ascent will be weaker across this area
and the main initiation mechanism will be mixing/dryline
circulations. if storms can develop, hail and strong gusts will be
possible.
...northeast...
a shortwave upper trough over the great lakes will develop
east/northeast across ontario and quebec through the evening. strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the northeast as this
occurs. boundary layer moisture will be modest, with dewpoints
generally in the 40s to low 50s. however, cold temperatures aloft
will foster steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting modest
destabilization during the afternoon/evening (generally less than
1000 j/kg mlcape). increasing large-scale ascent and the approach of
the surface boundary will result in isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development. strong gusts will be the main risk with
storms given the strength of deep-layer flow and a well mixed
boundary layer. however, isolated hail also will be possible given
35+ kt effective shear and 500 mb temperatures near -18 c.
..leitman.. 05/04/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z