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spc ac 171716

day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1216 pm cdt wed aug 17 2022

valid 181200z - 191200z

...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of the central plains...and from central/eastern tx into the
southeast...

...summary...
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur thursday over
parts of central/eastern texas into the southeast, and portions of
the central plains. damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this
activity.

...central plains...

moderate mid/upper level northwesterly flow will be in position
across the central/northern plains on the western periphery of the
eastern us upper trough. a shortwave perturbation is forecast to
develop southward from the canadian prairies into the plains during
the forecast period. at the surface, modest boundary-layer moisture
will reside ahead of a south/southeastward-advancing cold front. a
lack of better quality moisture will limit instability some, but
heating into the 80s and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will
support mlcape values around 500-1500 j/kg. effective shear
magnitudes greater than 30 kt will support at least transient
supercells and organized clusters by afternoon along/ahead of the
front. strong to severe gusts and marginally severe hail will be
possible with the strongest cells through early evening.

...central tx through the southeast...

a reservoir of rich boundary-layer moisture will reside ahead of the
west to east oriented surface front. surface dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s f and areas of strong heating will result in moderate
to strong instability, with mlcape values around 2000-3000 j/kg
likely. pw values also will be quite high, nearing 2 inches.
vertical shear will remain weak, with mostly unidirectional/westerly
deep-layer flow over the region. this combination of strong
instability and weak shear in the presence of a surface boundary
will mainly support initially intense updrafts with limited
organization. as a result, the main severe threat with thunderstorm
clusters through the afternoon will be limited to damaging gusts in
water loaded downdrafts.

..leitman.. 08/17/2022

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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z