spc ac 230621
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1221 am cst mon feb 23 2026
valid 241200z - 251200z
...no thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
thunderstorms are not expected across the us on tuesday.
... discussion ...
fast, broad northwest flow will be in place across much of the us
upper-levels on tuesday. embedded within this flow, a strong
shortwave trough will move from the northern plains into the great
lakes. at the surface, a low will skirt the central us-canada
border, ending up north of the great lakes. despite impressive
kinematics associated with this trough/cyclone, limited moisture and
instability should preclude thunderstorm development.
a secondary low will develop southward from eastern colorado into
northwest texas, within a broad lee trough stretching from north of
montana southward into central texas. this low will begin drawing
gulf moisture northward into the central us. however, the lack of
focused surface convergence/large-scale ascent should preclude
precipitation/thunderstorms from developing on tuesday.
across the west, a strong atmospheric river will take aim across
portions of the pacific northwest into northern california as an
extremely positively tilted trough moves into the pacific northwest.
forecast soundings across the area denote nearly saturated, moist
adiabatic temperature/dewpoint profiles, which should inhibit
sufficient instability for thunderstorm development.
..marsh.. 02/23/2026
click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product
note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z