spc ac 310559
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1259 am cdt sun may 31 2026
valid 011200z - 021200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the central plains...
...summary...
thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central plains.
isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from the
parts of the lower to mid missouri valley and northern ozarks
southeastward into the mid mississippi valley and southeast.
...central plains/mid missouri valley...
mid-level heights will rise on monday across the central u.s. as
southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place over the rockies and
high plains. at the surface, a low will deepen in far southwest
kansas, with upslope easterly flow in place over much of the central
plains. an axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to
setup from central kansas west-northwestward into northeastern
colorado, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s f. as
surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation will
take place in the higher terrain of east-central colorado.
additional storms are expected to develop further east across the
central high plains along and near the instability axis.
forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00z have mlcape in
the 1500 to 2000 j/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. in
addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 c/km.
this environment will support supercells with large hail and severe
wind gusts. the potential for severe wind gusts should increase
during the evening as a cluster of cells move east-northeastward
across the central high plains.
further east and northeast into parts of eastern kansas, eastern
nebraska and eastern south dakota, the presence of the mid-level
ridge will keep convective coverage more isolated. beneath the
ridge, surface dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 60s f north
to the lower 70s f south, which will result in an axis of moderate
to strong instability by afternoon. if storms can initiate and
persist in spite of the weak forcing, then a severe threat would be
expected. severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats.
...lower missouri valley/northern ozarks/mid mississippi
valley/southeast...
a large-scale mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
monday across much of the eastern u.s. at the surface, a moist
airmass will be located from the lower missouri valley southeastward
into the mid mississippi valley and southeast. surface dewpoints
will be in the upper 60s f to lower 70s f. this will contribute to
an axis of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. some model
forecasts move a shortwave trough, and an associated morning
convective system southward across the mid mississippi valley. other
solutions keep convective coverage more isolated. this points to
spatial uncertainty concerning any severe threat. if the more
aggressive solutions pan out, then the wind-damage and hail threat
could be greatest from parts of western tennessee southward into the
central gulf coast states. an isolated wind-damage and hail threat
may also extend eastward into northern georgia and south carolina,
along an east-to-west axis of instability.
..broyles.. 05/31/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z