spc ac 231742
day 2 convective outlook corr 1
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1242 pm cdt tue jun 23 2026
valid 241200z - 251200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the central/southern high plains...
corrected for text
...summary...
widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central high
plains on wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts. more isolated severe storms are possible across
portions of the upper midwest, ozarks to mississippi, and across
northern utah.
...synopsis...
strengthening westerly flow aloft in association with a mid-level
wave moving out of saskatchewan/manitoba will overspread the central
rockies on d2/wednesday. a surface low will be located across
northern wisconsin drifting eastward with a cold front extending
southward into the central high plains. lee cyclogenesis is progged
late in the period across eastern colorado/western kansas in
response to the increased westerly flow across the central rockies.
widely scattered severe storms are expected to form across the high
terrain in the central/southern high plains before moving into the
central/southern plains by the evening. more isolated severe storms
are possible near the surface low in wisconsin, across portion of
the ozarks to mississippi, and northern utah.
...central/southern high plains into the ozarks...
moderate instability will overlap strong deep layer shear within the
upslope flow across eastern colorado into southeastern wyoming
wednesday afternoon. this will support initial supercell modes with
development into the afternoon. easterly surface flow becoming
westerly aloft will support veering wind profiles and low-level
curvature of hodographs. large to very large hail and perhaps a
tornado will be possible before storms begin to cluster. damaging
wind potential will then increase as storms consolidate along
outflow and spread eastwards. the slight was shifted further
eastward into the nebraska panhandle to account for this downstream
potential.
...eastern arkansas into mississippi...
confidence in the evolution of overnight convection across portions
of oklahoma tuesday night is decreasing. it remains possible that an
mcs will be ongoing towards the beginning of the d2/wednesday period
shifting eastward into portions of arkansas by day break. it is
possible that should this occur, some re intensification could be
ongoing across portions of eastern arkansas into mississippi. for
now, a marginal risk was maintained across this area for potential
for damaging winds pending further details on the evolution of
convection overnight.
...upper great lakes...
filtered daytime heating through breaks in the clouds should allow
for moderate instability to develop near the surface low across
portions of the western great lakes. widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the
surface low and frontal boundary, and within the belt of stronger
mid-level flow, suggesting some potential for large hail with the
strongest updrafts.
...northern utah...
a weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across northern utah
during the day on wednesday, with weak to moderate instability
progged by the afternoon. forecast soundings show a deeply-mixed
sub-cloud layer which will support potential thunderstorms capable
of damaging winds.
..thornton.. 06/23/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z