spc ac 190547
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1247 am cdt fri jun 19 2026
valid 201200z - 211200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of
the central plains....
...summary...
severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central
plains vicinity from saturday afternoon into saturday evening. large
to very-large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are
possible.
...synopsis...
a mid-level ridge will de-amplify as it emerges from the rockies to
the central plains on saturday. as this occurs, mid-level flow will
strengthen across the rockies with strong lee cyclogenesis across
eastern colorado. a frontal zone will extend eastward from the
surface low somewhere near southern nebraska with a dryline
extending southward into the southern plains.
...central plains...
low-level flow will strengthen across the plains during the day
saturday as the lee cyclone deepens across eastern colorado. this
will result in northward moisture transport and destabilization
across kansas, northeast colorado, and southwest nebraska. by
mid-afternoon, expect storms to develop within the upslope flow
regime across eastern wyoming, southwest south dakota, and the
nebraska panhandle. forecast soundings show cool temperatures aloft,
steep lapse rates, and strong shear which will support supercells
capable of large to very large hail in this area.
by later in the afternoon, expect storm development along the
uncapped dryline across eastern colorado and western kansas, and
along the frontal zone in central/southern nebraska. moderate
mid-level flow across the warm sector within this zone will support
a supercell storm mode. these initial supercells will pose a threat
for large to very large hail. in addition, some tornado threat will
exist with this activity, particularly along the front and as the
low-level jet strengthens during the evening. expect these
supercells to congeal into one or more mcss during the evening and
track southeastward into central and eastern kansas, with an
increasing wind threat (with some 75+ mph gust potential), and
perhaps a qlcs/embedded supercell tornado threat.
..bentley.. 06/19/2026
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