spc ac 260600
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0100 am cdt fri jun 26 2026
valid 271200z - 281200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern
montana into northwest south dakota and central north
dakota...southeast virginia into northeast north carolina...
...summary...
severe storms are likely across portions of eastern montana and
western/central north dakota on saturday. severe storms will also be
possible from the mid-mississippi valley to virginia and the
carolinas.
...synopsis...
a broad upper trough will persist in the west. ridging will build
within the southern/central plains and midwest. multiple mcvs will
impact portions of the ozarks/tennessee valley into the
mid-atlantic/piedmont. a shortwave trough will pivot through parts
of the northern plains. a surface low near the black hills will
deepen and move eastward into sunday morning.
...northern plains...
within a broader upper trough across the west, a shortwave trough
will pivot northeast through the northern plains. surface low
development in eastern wyoming/the black hills vicinity will draw
moisture northward. effective shear of 40-50 kt will promote initial
supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado or two. given the linear forcing within the
surface trough as well as somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggest
some potential for upscale growth by early evening. as this occurs a
transition to primarily a risk of severe wind gusts (perhaps 75+
mph) will occur. there may be a small corridor of greater severe
gust coverage/intensity, but weaker and potential warm advection
storms to the east decreases confidence in the spatial extent of a
greater wind risk. even so, some potential for severe gusts and
isolated large hail will continue eastward during the evening along
the nose of a low-level jet in the dakotas. farther south into
nebraska, convective development is more conditional/uncertain. the
environment would support all severe hazards, however.
...ozarks into tennessee valley...
convection along a surface boundary driven by warm advection appears
probable during the morning hours. this activity is expected to
weaken within the ozarks and may shift into the tennessee valley as
the mcv moves eastward. damaging winds and marginally severe hail
may occur in tennessee/kentucky. farther west, some airmass recovery
is possible within southern missouri. a weak mcv emanating from the
southern high plains may spur convective development during the
afternoon despite modestly rising mid-level heights. a conditionally
favorable environment for a supercell or two will exist. all severe
hazards would be possible if storms can form.
...ohio valley into mid-atlantic/piedmont...
convection may be ongoing in portions of the mid/upper ohio valley
during the morning. some potential for isolated damaging winds may
accompany this activity. relatively high uncertainty exists as to
how this early-day activity will evolve as it moves eastward during
the day. a weak cold front is forecast to be positioned across parts
of the mid-atlantic. south of this boundary, rich surface moisture
will be in place. however, cloud cover may limit destabilization and
weak to modest mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer flow will
further limit storm organization potential. depending on the
timing/location of the ohio valley convection/mcv, a narrow zone of
marginally greater shear may promote a more organized threat for
wind damage in southeast virginia into northeast north carolina.
another weakening mcv moving through the tennessee valley will
impact the region by late afternoon/early evening, but buoyancy by
that point in the day is more questionable.
...mid-missouri into mid-mississippi valley...
with an increase in the low-level jet during the evening, convection
may develop along a boundary draped across the region. effective
shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would promote some risk for
large hail and isolated damaging winds during the evening into the
overnight. that said, rising mid-level heights may be enough to
inhibit convection from forming altogether.
..wendt.. 06/26/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z