spc ac 280655
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1255 am cst fri nov 28 2025
valid 291200z - 301200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of
eastern tx into the arklatex and sabine river valley...
...summary...
isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southeast texas into western and central louisiana tomorrow
(saturday) afternoon or evening.
...synopsis...
a mid-level trough will traverse the central plains and middle ms
valley tomorrow (saturday), resulting in the rapid northeastward
progression of a surface low, with a cold front poised to surge
southward across the southern plains toward the arklatex. seasonal
moisture will advect northward in advance of the surface low across
much of central and eastern tx to the sabine river valley, promoting
enough buoyancy, amid strong deep-layer ascent, for thunderstorm
development. given the expected presence of a strong southerly
low-level jet and accompanying vertical wind shear, isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible.
...eastern tx to the arklatex and sabine river valley...
widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start
of the period (12z saturday) due to an ongoing warm-air advection
regime, driven by a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet. while
low-level cloud cover should persist for much of the day across
eastern tx into the sabine river valley, pockets of occasional
heating will help boost surface temperatures into the upper 60s f.
should this occur, mid 60s f surface dewpoints beneath 7+ c/km
mid-level lapse rates, may yield mlcape approaching 1000 j/kg in
spots. the latest guidance consensus depicts two general focal
points for thunderstorm initiation. one is along the approaching
cold front in northeast tx into southwestern ar and far northwestern
la by early afternoon, where linear convection may develop and
support severe gusts. ahead of the cold front, low-level confluence
bands, over the tx coastal plain, within the primary moisture axis
of the warm-air advection regime, may also support thunderstorm
initiation. despite the departing nature of the low-level jet,
appreciable south-southwesterly 850 mb flow (30+ kts), beneath 50+
kt west-northwesterlies glancing the arklatex, will support
elongated hodographs and up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear.
transient supercells may develop in these confluence bands by
afternoon into the evening hours, capable of an instance or two of
severe wind/hail, and perhaps even a tornado.
..squitieri.. 11/28/2025
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z