spc ac 031724
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1224 pm cdt sun may 03 2026
valid 041200z - 051200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of the midwest...
...summary...
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
midwest late monday afternoon into monday night.
...synopsis...
a split upper-level flow pattern is expected on monday. a broad
trough across the northern plains/upper midwest will eventually sag
southward late in the period. another trough will move into the
lower colorado valley. a stronger cold front will move into the
great lakes/midwest/southern plains late afternoon into the
overnight. a surface low and attendant dryline is forecast within
the central/southern plains.
...eastern kansas into mid-mississippi valley...
forcing for ascent will remain weak/nebulous across the region until
after 00z. a stalled weak boundary within central missouri may serve
as a potential area for storm initiation during the afternoon.
low-level convergence would be weak and development remains
uncertain. afternoon develop could pose a greater hail risk with
steep mid-level lapse rates and 35-40 kt of effective shear.
development along the front is not expected to occur until 00z or
later as mid-level height falls and the low-level jet increases.
storms would be initially capable of large hail, but increasing
coverage and interaction should eventually yield upscale growth.
damaging winds should become the primary threat with time. a locally
greater severe risk could develop should a small mcs develop during
the evening. there is significant spread in guidance on where this
could occur and the late timing of this suggests nocturnal
stabilization could also limit the potential for strong/damaging
surface gusts.
...lower great lakes vicinity...
moisture will be more limited with northeastward extent. daytime
heating may be enough to initiate a few storms along the surface
boundary during the afternoon. however, a more probable scenario is
that greater storm development will occur as large-scale forcing
increases during the evening. modest shear and buoyancy will limit
the overall severe threat, but damaging winds and isolated large
hail are possible.
...oklahoma into south-central kansas...
there is a general agreement within current guidance that a surface
low will deepen in western kansas/oklahoma. a triple point is
expected to be located in central kansas. despite greater surface
moisture than areas farther northeast, lack of large-scale forcing
will keep capping in place near the surface low and southward along
the dryline in oklahoma. that said, there will be a strong dryline
circulation with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s f to the
west. models indicate attempts at convection along the dryline, but
confidence in sustained activity remains quite low. a risk for
severe weather would exist if storms can develop and persist.
..wendt.. 05/03/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z