spc ac 110600
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0100 am cdt sat jul 11 2026
valid 121200z - 131200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across east
georgia into south carolina...
...summary...
scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind
damage will be possible across much of the southeast on sunday, with
the greatest potential across south carolina. additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
arizona late sunday afternoon into sunday night.
... synopsis ...
the center of an expansive mid-level ridge will build northeast from
the northern rockies into the northern plains on sunday,
encompassing much of the contiguous us. a weak, positively-tilted
mid-level trough will slowly move southeast from the ohio valley
into the tennessee valley.
at the surface, a weak low will meander southeast underneath the
aforementioned mid-level trough. at the start of the forecast
period, a convectively augmented boundary will arc from this low
southwest into arkansas before turning northwestward and extending
into south-central/south-west kansas. this boundary will push south
through the period and serve as a focus for additional thunderstorm
development sunday afternoon.
... much of south carolina into east georgia ...
ahead of the meandering surface low, a very warm and moist airmass
will once again be in place as surface temperatures warm into the
80fs and 90fs in the presence of surface dewpoint temperatures in
the 60fs and low 70fs. the result will be around 1000-2000 j/kg of
mucape within a mostly uncapped environment. scattered thunderstorms
should develop during the afternoon as convective temperatures are
breached. weak mid-level flow (on the order of 15-20 knots) will
favor single cells and multicell clusters. relatively steep
low-level lapse rates beneath the lcl and high precipitable water
values will support downbursts/outflow winds capable of damage.
given the cooler mid-level temperatures associated with the
mid-level trough, a few marginally severe hail reports may also
occur.
... southern high plains into the southeast ...
to the south of the previously mentioned surface boundary, a
warm/hot moist airmass will be in place as temperatures warm into
the 90fs to near 100f with dewpoints in the 60fs and 70fs. this will
result in mucape on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 j/kg. strong
diurnal heating coupled with weak convergence along the surface
boundary should result in scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon. these storms will be capable of producing
strong-to-marginally severe convective outflow winds.
... arizona ...
steep mid-level lapse rates and ample mid-level moisture will
support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
this region will be to the south of the strong conus-wide ridge with
a belt of enhanced easterlies overhead. this should allow
thunderstorms that develop across the higher terrain of arizona to
move west into the lower desert. a deeply mixed boundary layer will
allow for strong outflow winds to develop as convection spreads west
into southern and central arizona.
... upper great lakes ...
this region will be glanced by large-scale ascent associated with a
strengthening mid-level jet across central canada. surface
temperatures warming into the upper 80fs and low 90fs with dewpoints
temperatures in the mid 60fs to perhaps 70fs will result in strong
instability during the afternoon. large-scale ascent will be modest
at best, but a few thunderstorms are expected to develop, perhaps
along a 700-millibar front/boundary, during the afternoon. steep
low-level and mid-level lapse rates and effective-layer shear on the
order of 30-35 knots will support a few strong-to-severe wind gusts
and perhaps marginally severe hail. forecast hodographs have modest
curvature in the low-levels that a tornado or two may be possible
with any supercell that can sustain itself and move more southerly,
realizing the totality of the low-level curvature.
..marsh.. 07/11/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z