spc ac 281714
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1114 am cst sat feb 28 2026
valid 011200z - 021200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
thunderstorms will be possible on sunday across parts of south
florida, the southern and central plains, and in northern california
sunday afternoon and evening.
...synopsis...
a strong cyclone traversing eastern canada this morning will be
followed by strengthening surface high pressure across the eastern
two-thirds of the conus tomorrow. a weak trailing cold front
associated with the canadian cyclone will gradually migrate south
into the southeast and southern plains. isentropic ascent over the
frontal zone will support isolated thunderstorms across portions of
ok into southeast ks, southwest mo, and northwest ar tomorrow
afternoon and evening. although the kinematic environment is
conditionally favorable for organized convection, meager moisture
return and poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate severe
thunderstorm potential. there is a low chance for a strong
thunderstorm across central ok during the evening hours per latest
rrfs solutions, which depict better low-level moisture/buoyancy into
ok and are aligned with recent rap solutions environmentally.
however, the consensus among other href members and calibrated
guidance is that the rrfs is the outlier solution, which
substantially limits confidence in the severe potential.
elsewhere, lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
within a residual frontal zone across the southern fl peninsula
where an unstable, but weakly capped, environment should be in
place. along the west coast, an upper-level trough pushing into
northern ca and southern or will support isolated thunderstorms as
instability increases due to cooling temperatures aloft within a
fairly moist air mass.
..moore.. 02/28/2026
click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product
note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0700z