spc ac 251734
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1234 pm cdt sat apr 25 2026
valid 261200z - 271200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms central/eastern
kansas...west-central missouri...southeast nebraska...
...summary...
isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce
large/very-large hail severe/damaging winds and a couple of strong
tornadoes are possible by early sunday evening across parts of the
central and southern great plains.
...synopsis...
a shortwave trough will eject into the central plains late saturday.
a surface low develop in western/central kansas. a dryline will
drape south and westward into oklahoma and texas. a warm front will
be situated within parts of the mid-missouri/mid-mississippi
valleys.
...central plains into mid-missouri valley...
uncertainty remains in the exact evolution of convection across the
central plains and mid-missouri valley. while stronger mid-level
ascent is expected this far north, the timing of the shortwave
trough will likely be after 00z. outflow from convection on saturday
will play a role in where severe convection eventually develops. two
zones are currently evident in model guidance. one will be along
potential outflow near the ks/mo border into southeast ne where a
weak surface low could develop. the triple point and main surface
low in western/central ks will be the other. some guidance shows
warm advection storms spreading northeastward early sunday which
would complicate the forecast for the mid-missouri valley. there is
modestly higher confidence in storms developing near the main
surface low/triple point. effective shear will be greater than 50
kt, strong buoyancy of greater than 2500 j/kg mlcape, and steep
mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk for large/very-large hail
with initial supercells. the tornado risk will likely be maximized
near the triple point, but how long the greater threat lasts depends
on speed of upscale growth. with time, one or more clusters/linear
segments are expected to move eastward and lead to a greater
severe/damaging wind threat. the southern extent of this potential
remains uncertain as most guidance has suggested this activity will
be farther north, more closely tied to the ejecting shortwave
trough.
...oklahoma...
the level of severe risk will be highly dependent upon what occurs
saturday evening into sunday morning. outflow from this activity has
the potential to limit destabilization across at least portions of
central/eastern oklahoma. this could potentially leave a fairly
narrow corridor near the dryline where inhibition would be
minimized. that said, the large-scale ascent will be nebulous at
best and overcoming the cap will largely be dependent on strong
heating along the dryline. the nose of the mid-level jet will move
into the texas panhandle/western oklahoma by late afternoon. locally
stronger convergence along the dryline may be enough to initiate an
isolated storm or two. this scenario remains quite uncertain as
guidance uniformly does not convect along the dryline. given greater
than 50 kt deep-layer shear perpendicular to the dryline, steep
mid-level lapse rates, and strong low-level shear (especially during
the evening), storms would be capable of all severe hazards --
including very-large hail and a strong tornado -- should they
develop.
...lower mississippi valley...
a remnant mcv from convection on saturday in ok/northeast texas will
likely move southeastward during the day. moderate mid,
northwesterly mid-level winds will allow for some continued storm
organization. the main question will be how much destabilization
will occur ahead of this feature. furthermore, weakening 850 mb
winds will have to overcome by cold pool organization. at least
isolated wind damage and large hail would be possible.
...northwest texas into edwards plateau/hill country...
storm initiation along the dryline is not certain given the lack of
forcing aloft. however, strong heating could promote isolated
development. shear would be sufficient for supercells and steep
lapse rates through the middle troposphere would promote a threat
for large/very-large hail as well as severe winds.
..wendt.. 04/25/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z