spc ac 291730
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1230 pm cdt wed apr 29 2026
valid 301200z - 011200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the texas
big bend into the central texas...
...summary...
a couple of strong to marginally severe storms may impact the big
bend region into central texas late thursday afternoon into thursday
night.
...synopsis...
strong mid-level winds will persist along/near a surface front in
central/south texas. through the period, a compact shortwave trough
will approach the trans-pecos/big bend, arriving late thursday into
friday morning. a very moist airmass will be in place near/south of
the surface boundary. isolated to widely scattered strong/marginally
severe storms may occur during the afternoon into the overnight.
...hill country/central texas...
a very moist airmass (mid/upper 60s f dewpoints) near and south of
the surface boundary will be in place. as this airmass interacts
with the terrain in northern mexico, a couple of strong to severe
storms may move into the rio grande valley region and into the
edwards plateau/hill country. a less certain scenario will be storms
developing on the boundary more towards parts of central texas.
guidance does suggest some potential cloud clearing and surface
heating that could support modest surface-based buoyancy. forcing
for ascent will be weak during the afternoon and largely depend on
frontal convergence. in either case, strong westerly mid-level flow
and sufficient mid-level lapse rates would support marginally severe
hail with the strongest activity. additional development could occur
overnight as the upper trough approaches the big bend region. these
elevated storms would pose a similar marginal hail threat.
...big bend...
during the afternoon, a modest dryline feature will be situated
within the permian basin/big bend regions. this dryline circulation
is not expected to be overly strong given the cloud cover
anticipated, though downslope warming/drying will still lead to a
sharp moisture gradient. it is possible an isolated storm or two
could develop on this boundary, but confidence is not high given the
shortwave ridging that will be present during the afternoon. there
is higher confidence in storms initiating within the davis mountains
and nearby higher terrain in mexico as the shortwave trough
approaches overnight thursday. moist, upslope flow into the region
will increase by mid evening. isolated to widely scattered supercell
structures are possible, though overall intensity of storms may be
limited by the cooler temperatures by that point in the period.
marginally severe hail would be the main concern with this activity.
some guidance does suggest the development of linear structures
progressing eastward toward the edwards plateau. potential for wind
gusts with that activity appears low given near-surface stability
evident in forecast soundings.
..wendt.. 04/29/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0600z