spc ac 050545
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1145 pm cst thu dec 04 2025
valid 061200z - 071200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
aside from a possible isolated weak thunderstorm or two across parts
of the central florida peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears
negligible across much of the nation saturday through saturday
night.
...discussion...
models indicate little change to the large-scale pattern across much
of north america through this period. downstream of lingering
mid/upper ridging just inland of the pacific coast, flow will
continue to split into broad troughing centered within one branch,
across hudson bay through portions of the great lakes and northeast,
and another, across the central/southern great plains through
southeast. weak, positively-tilted troughing is also forecast to
linger across and southwest of southern baja, between an
increasingly suppressed high over the southern mid-latitude to
subtropical eastern pacific and ridging across the caribbean through
western subtropical atlantic.
in lower levels, the primary surface front may advance a bit farther
offshore of the southern atlantic seaboard and into the central
florida peninsula, but models suggest it will stall across the
northwestern gulf basin and perhaps redevelop northward toward
northeastern gulf coastal areas saturday night.
...northeastern gulf coast/florida peninsula...
low-level moistening and insolation may contribute to boundary-layer
destabilization in a corridor near/just ahead of the front across
the central florida peninsula during the day saturday. while this
could become supportive of at least attempts at deepening convective
development by late saturday afternoon, relatively warm mid-level
temperatures and weak mid/upper forcing for ascent seem likely to
limit thunderstorm development to perhaps a weak thunderstorm or
two.
better potential for thunderstorms may develop by late saturday
night across the northeastern gulf, aided by forcing for ascent
downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the southern great
plains, perhaps preceded by a perturbation emerging from the
subtropics. this might include convection rooted with lift
associated with lower/mid-troposphere warm advection, as far north
as coastal southeastern louisiana and the florida big bend vicinity.
..kerr.. 12/05/2025
click to get wuus02 ptsdy2 product
note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z