spc ac 090640
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1240 am cst fri jan 09 2026
valid 101200z - 111200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the southeast...carolinas and southern virginia...
...summary...
isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on saturday from the
southeast into parts of the carolinas and southern virginia.
...southeast/carolinas/southern virginia...
at the start of the period, a large-scale upper-level trough will be
located from the southern plains to the upper midwest, with an
associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet over the mid-mississippi and
lower ohio valleys. the southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow
will be over the southeast, where a moist airmass will be in place
saturday morning. within this airmass, low-level convergence ahead
of a cold front will contribute to the development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms from the lower mississippi valley
northeastward into the southern appalachians. weak instability along
the moist axis along with moderate deep-layer shear, will likely be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat early in the day. this
threat is expected to develop into parts of the carolinas and
southern virginia by midday, as a low-level jet translates
northeastward. a brief tornado could occur near the low-level jet.
however, the primary threat should be wind damage with the stronger
short line segments. lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which
should keep any severe threat marginal.
..broyles.. 01/09/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z