spc ac 040656
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1256 am cst wed mar 04 2026
valid 051200z - 061200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the southern and central plains...
...summary...
scattered severe thunderstorms are expected thursday afternoon and
into thursday night from west texas and the texas panhandle into
western oklahoma and south-central kansas. large hail and severe
wind gusts, along with a couple tornadoes will be possible.
...west and central texas/western oklahoma/south-central kansas...
an upper-level trough will move eastward across the intermountain
west on thursday, as flow remains southwesterly over the
south-central u.s. moisture advection will take place across the
southern and central plains. by midday, surface dewpoints will be in
the 50s and 60s f across the moist sector, as a dryline develops
over west texas. warming surface temperatures during the day will
result in the development of moderate instability to the east of the
dryline across much of west and central texas northward into the
eastern texas panhandle and western oklahoma. by late afternoon,
convective initiation is expected near and just east of the dryline
on the caprock of west texas. these storms will grow upscale
quickly, with multiple convective clusters moving eastward into the
low rolling plains of northwest texas and into western oklahoma.
additional storms are expected to form in south-central kansas
during the evening.
due to the system in the western u.s. and the associated
southwesterly flow ahead of it, a strong low-level jet is forecast
to develop during the late afternoon and early evening across the
southern plains. this feature will contribute to moderate deep-layer
shear over much of the southern high plains. nam forecast soundings
in the early evening from east of lubbock northward into the texas
panhandle have gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels with
around 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. in addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates
are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 c/km range. this will be favorable
for supercells with large hail and isolated severe gusts. in the
late afternoon/early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is
forecast to be in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, which will likely
support a tornado threat with the most intense storms. as low-level
moisture increases across parts of southern and central kansas
during the evening, additional strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop. a severe threat may eventually affect central
oklahoma and central to eastern kansas from mid evening into the
overnight period.
...northern kansas/lower to mid missouri valley/western and central
iowa...
southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over the central
u.s. on thursday. in response, strong moisture advection will
continue from thursday into thursday night across the central plains
and lower to mid missouri valley. scattered thunderstorms are
expected develop across the region starting in the late evening,
with storm coverage steadily increasing during the overnight as a
low-level jet strengthens. forecast soundings show a low-level
temperature inversion, but develop weak instability aloft, with
mucape increasing into the 500 to 1200 j/kg range across much of
northern kansas, eastern nebraska, western iowa and northwestern
missouri. in addition, effective shear is forecast to increase into
the 30 to 40 knot range. this environment will favor the development
of elevated strong to severe thunderstorms, with isolated large hail
and marginally severe wind gusts. the threat is expected to persist
through late in the period.
..broyles.. 03/04/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z