spc ac 010559
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1259 am cdt wed apr 01 2026
valid 021200z - 031200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the midwest and great lakes...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the midwest and
great lakes regions thursday afternoon and evening/night. damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
...synopsis...
a surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeastward
from the southern/central plains into the upper ms valley. this will
help advect a plume of seasonally rich moisture (upper 50s to low
60s dewpoints) northward into the midwest and great lakes regions
through the day and into the overnight hours. residual convection
emanating out of the mid-ms valley during the morning hours is
forecast to re-intensify by mid to late afternoon. concurrently, a
second round of thunderstorms is anticipated along the synoptic cold
front along the ms valley by late afternoon. both rounds of
thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe winds, tornadoes, and
sporadic large hail as the regional wind field intensifies through
the day.
...midwest/great lakes...
latest guidance continues to depict broken convective bands
(residual from overnight convection over the plains) moving out of
central and northern mo during the late morning/early afternoon
hours. as the synoptic cyclone lift north, moisture advection will
likely keep pace with the convection given 20-25 mph surface winds
and 45-55 knot flow within the lowest kilometer. diluted diurnal
heating should support adequate (albeit very modest) destabilization
for a re-intensification of convection by the mid-afternoon hours.
despite very limited buoyancy (mlcape values around 500 j/kg), the
combination of very strong low-level flow and 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km
srh will support organized lines with an attendant threat for severe
winds and tornadoes. the northern and eastern extent of the
wind/tornado threat remains somewhat nebulous and will be
conditional on the quality of downstream destabilization.
...mid/upper ms river valley...
air mass recover appears likely in the wake of early-morning
convection across northern mo into ia/western il with most forecast
guidance depicting mlcape values upwards of 1000 to perhaps 1500
j/kg mlcape. forcing along the cold front to the south of the
surface low will likely support semi-discrete convection that should
propagate east/northeast into northern il by late afternoon and
evening. a combination of regionally higher buoyancy and strong
low-level flow (similar 0-1 km srh values between 250-300 m2/s2 are
expected) will support a threat for semi-discrete cells capable of
large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes (including the
potential for significant tornadoes).
...mid-south...
a moist and weakly capped environment across the mid-south/lower oh
valley will support convection through peak heating. however,
increasing displacement from stronger synoptic ascent and a lack of
more focused mesoscale ascent will likely result in more isolated
thunderstorm coverage. nonetheless, deep-layer wind shear will
support organized convection, including the potential for a
supercell or two through early evening.
..moore.. 04/01/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z