spc ac 130559
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1259 am cdt wed may 13 2026
valid 141200z - 151200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
central and eastern kansas...
...summary...
thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
thursday across parts of central and eastern kansas, with more
isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower missouri
valley, northern ozarks and southern high plains.
...central plains/lower missouri valley/northern ozarks...
a mid-level shortwave ridge will move into the upper mississippi
valley and ozarks on thursday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
into the great plains. ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will increase surface dewpoints into the 60s f over much
of the eastern half of kansas. during the day, the airmass will
become moderately unstable as surface temperatures warm. in the
afternoon, low-level convergence will increase along a dryline in
southern and central kansas supporting scattered thunderstorm
development. a few storms are expected to increase in intensity and
move eastward across central and eastern kansas during the late
afternoon and early evening. mlcape in the 1000 to 2000 j/kg range,
0-6 km shear around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rate near 8 c/km
will be favorable for supercells with large hail. hailstones of
greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with any supercell that
can become intense. isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible. the storms are expected to move eastward into the lower
missouri valley during the evening and overnight period, and should
gradually increase in coverage as a low-level jet strengthens.
although the storms are expected to become elevated, instability and
effective shear are forecast to be strong enough for a continued
isolated severe threat.
...southern high plains...
a subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern high
plains on thursday. scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near this trough over parts of west texas thursday afternoon. nearly
dry adiabatic lapse rates are evident on forecast soundings. this
environment should support isolated severe wind gusts, as a few of
the developing cells mix the stronger flow down to the surface
during the mid to late afternoon.
..broyles.. 05/13/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 1730z