spc ac 041735
day 2 convective outlook corr 1
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1135 am cst wed mar 04 2026
valid 051200z - 061200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from northwest
texas to southern kansas...
corrected for headline
...summary...
scattered severe storms may develop on thursday evening and persist
into early morning friday from northwest texas to southern kansas. a
few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail could occur.
...synopsis...
a low-amplitude shortwave trough will quickly progress from the
mid-ms valley to the northeast. a broad positive-tilt upper trough
will shift more slowly eastward across the west, reaching the
northern high plains to four corners by early friday. downstream lee
cyclogenesis will occur over eastern co through thursday afternoon.
a warm front will arc southeast and eventually east from this
cyclone. a separate front will be oriented to the northeast and
north, accelerating southeast over the northern great plains
thursday night. the dryline should only mix slightly east of eastern
nm into far western parts of tx.
...southern to central great plains...
deepening lee cyclogenesis over eastern co through the day will
yield increasing low-level moisture return beneath a pronounced eml
from tx to ks. initial severe-storm concern will develop in the late
afternoon to early evening in the tx panhandle/northwest tx vicinity
and adjacent western ok. guidance differs markedly with the degree
of thunderstorm development along the surface warm front as it
advances north. the hrrr/rrfs and mpas runs are much more aggressive
compared to the nam-nest and nssl-arw cores with sustained storms.
differential insolation/boundary-layer heating across the front and
weak mid-level height falls may be adequate for storms ahead of the
effective front/dryline intersection in the western tx panhandle.
should sustained development occur, a strengthening nocturnal
low-level jet will maintain an influx of low 60s surface dew points
and surface-based instability into thursday night.
the initial setup would favor discrete supercells capable of large
hail and at least a couple tornadoes amid a supercell wind profile
and steep mid-level lapse rates. it is plausible that a
longer-track/strong supercell or two could become established to the
northeast through the evening into the early overnight in parts of
western to north-central ok. however, upscale growth into a linear
cluster with embedded supercells seems more probable into the
overnight, capable of producing all hazards. but with some weakening
of near-surface lapse rates anticipated, confidence is low on the
degree of significant severe potential with northeastward extent.
elevated thunderstorms appear likely to develop farther north in the
southwest/central ne vicinity and in a broader swath across the
mid-mo valley overnight. isolated severe hail and strong gusts could
briefly accompany the more robust storms.
..grams.. 03/04/2026
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