spc ac 161730
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1130 am cst mon feb 16 2026
valid 171200z - 181200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
thunderstorms are possible across pacific coastal areas and the
central valley of california tuesday into tuesday night, as well as
across parts of the mid missouri valley into upper midwest tuesday
night. however, the risk for severe storms currently appears low.
...california...
in the wake of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough ejecting across
the great basin/four corners region, another strong trough will dig
southeastward along the pacific coast on tuesday, as a powerful
mid/upper-level jet begins to impinge upon the california coast.
ascent attendant to the trough/jet and cold temperatures aloft will
support low-topped convection along much of the california coast,
and also within parts of the interior valleys. the strongest
low/midlevel flow will move over the central/northern ca coast and
valleys during the day and evening, and over the southern ca coastal
region later tuesday night. gusty winds and small hail will be
possible with low-topped convection across these regions. at this
time, it appears that convection will be quite shallow, which is
expected to limit the organized severe threat. however, trends will
continue to be monitored regarding potential for a low-probability
wind and brief-tornado threat associated with this strong system.
...missouri valley/midwest...
the mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near the eastern
great basin and four corners region will eject rapidly northeastward
and take on a negative tilt on tuesday, reaching the
central/northern plains by late afternoon into the evening, and the
upper midwest/great lakes by early wednesday morning. in response to
this shortwave trough, a deep surface low will consolidate across
the northern high plains, and then move across the dakotas. a
trailing cold front will move across parts of the great plains.
low-level moisture return along/ahead of the front is expected to
remain quite limited, but strong ascent and modest moistening above
the surface could support elevated convection from very late
afternoon into tuesday night across parts of the mo valley and upper
midwest. the signal for robust convection is currently muted, with
the general thunderstorm area reflecting a broad region of low but
nonzero potential. with strong low/midlevel flow and robust diurnal
heating/mixing expected across the warm sector, the environment will
be conditionally favorable for strong to locally severe gusts, if
deep convection can be sustained.
..dean.. 02/16/2026
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note: the next day 2 outlook is scheduled by 0700z