spc ac 021926
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0226 pm cdt sat may 02 2026
valid 041200z - 051200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern
kansas into central ohio...
...summary...
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
midwest late monday afternoon into monday night.
...synopsis...
a split flow pattern aloft will evolve on monday. cyclonic flow will
sag southward from the northern u.s. into the upper midwest and
parts of the midwest. on the west coast, an upper low will become
more of an open wave and move into the lower colorado valley. in
response to the intensifying upper low near the upper great lakes, a
stronger cold front will move into the lower great lakes, midwest,
and central plains.
...eastern kansas into central ohio...
with an additional day of return flow, low-level moisture should be
increased from sunday. mid/upper 50s f dewpoints are most probable,
but low 60s are not out of the question in eastern kansas/western
missouri. models differ in the intensity/placement of the
subtropical jet stream leading to differences in where the surface
cyclone/front will be positioned by late afternoon. mid-level ascent
along the boundary will be weak through most of the day with some
increase noted mainly after 00z. even so, surface heating will be
sufficient to reach convective temperatures in parts of
illinois/indiana/ohio. farther west, mid/upper clouds may be more
prevalent and afternoon development, uncertain as it is, will be
tied to mesoscale features such as the triple point. during the
evening, an intensifying low-level jet should promote greater storm
development/coverage along the boundary. storms would be capable of
large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
..wendt.. 05/02/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z