spc ac 151924
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0124 pm cst sun feb 15 2026
valid 171200z - 181200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across pacific coastal
areas and the central valley of california tuesday into tuesday
night, as well as across parts of the mid missouri valley into upper
midwest tuesday night. however, the risk for severe storms appears
low.
...discussion...
continued cold air advection aloft over the relatively warm waters
of the eastern pacific will continue to support thunderstorm
activity along the coastal areas on tuesday from oregon to southern
california. thunderstorm activity may spread inland across central
california where some warming may lead to a pocket of greater
instability in the central valley.
a large cyclone will emerge across the northern plains on tuesday.
moisture will be somewhat limited given the cold front currently
scouring moisture across the gulf. however, forecast guidance does
show sufficient moistening around 850mb to support some elevated
instability by tuesday evening into early wednesday. given the
strong isentropic ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
be possible across the upper midwest starting tuesday evening.
however, the limited moisture will keep instability weak.
..bentley.. 02/15/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0830z