spc ac 261919
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0219 pm cdt sun jul 26 2026
valid 281200z - 291200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the southern
mid atlantic into north carolina and the southern appalachians...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are
possible from the southern mid-atlantic into the carolinas and
central and southern appalachians tuesday into tuesday evening.
isolated severe wind gusts may occur in the central high plains.
...southern mid atlantic into north carolina and southern
appalachians...
an upper trough with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max will push
southeastward across the appalachians and into parts of the mid
atlantic and carolinas during the day, supporting thunderstorms
through much of the period.
storms are expected to be ongoing early tuesday from pa and wv into
eastern ky, near a cold front. this activity should persist as it
moves into md/va/nc, where a surface trough will deepen. daytime
heating along with ample low-level moisture will support 1500-2000
j/kg mlcape, and winds will be veering with height, supporting a few
supercells. despite warm temperatures aloft, the 40-50 kt deep-layer
shear may support hail in the strongest cells. in addition,
southwesterly 850 mb winds up to 40 kt late in the day may yield an
isolated tornado risk from southeast va into nc. moderately high
pwat along with steep low-level lapse rates during the peak heating
hours will also support locally damaging wind gusts.
...northern high plains...
instability will increase over eastern wy, western sd/ne and
northeast co during the afternoon as a weak surface trough develops.
southeast surface winds will maintain 50s to lower 60s f dewpoints,
with storms forming after 21z near the higher terrain in wy/co.
south to southeast storm motions may bring multicellular storms
across western ne and northeast co during the evening with a few
severe gusts possible.
..jewell.. 07/26/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z