spc ac 190723
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0223 am cdt tue may 19 2026
valid 211200z - 221200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected across the
northern rockies, portions of the southern florida peninsula, and
from the southern plains to portions of the southeast on thursday.
severe storms are not expected.
...discussion...
a few thunderstorms will be possible near the upper low across
montana. limited moisture and weak instability will limit the severe
risk in this region.
a stationary front will extend from far southern texas into the
mississippi valley and northward to the carolinas. scattered
thunderstorms are expected along and south of the front across the
southeast and mid atlantic. additional afternoon thunderstorms will
develop across the southern florida peninsula with the sea breeze
circulation. storms will likely be sub severe, given weak flow/shear
for organization across these regions.
across the southern high plains, widely scattered thunderstorm
activity is expected near the front and across portions of the high
terrain from western texas into eastern new mexico/southeastern
colorado. moisture will become more limited with northern extent in
new mexico and colorado, with dew points in the low 50s. a few
stronger storms may produce instances of strong winds and small
hail. overall, the stronger mid-level flow should remain displaced
from the better moisture leading to low confidence in a more
organized severe threat.
..thornton.. 05/19/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z