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spc ac 220712

day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0212 am cdt mon apr 22 2019

valid 241200z - 251200z

...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
south-central and southeast texas...

thunderstorms associated with a wind damage and large hail threat
are expected to develop across parts of south-central and southeast
texas on wednesday.

...southern plains...
an upper-level low is forecast to move from northern mexico into
west texas on wednesday. west-southwesterly mid-level flow will
remain across much of the eastern half of texas. at the surface, a
cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across central and
southwest texas. ahead of the front, a moist airmass should be in
place with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s f. in response,
moderate instability appears likely to develop by wednesday
afternoon from the lower rio grande river east-northeastward across
south-central texas. the nam and ecmwf are somewhat in agreement,
showing convective potential along this corridor along and just
ahead of the front. in addition to moderate instability, nam
forecast soundings at 21z wednesday for san antonio show 0-6 km
shear in the 50-60 kt range. this combined with steep low to
mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for large hail and isolated
damaging wind gusts. the severe threat is expected to develop in the
early afternoon and persist into early evening.

..broyles.. 04/22/2019

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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z