spc ac 261919
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0219 pm cdt sun apr 26 2026
valid 281200z - 291200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tuesday afternoon
and evening in a corridor across the southeastern great plains into
lower ohio valley...
...summary...
scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern
great plains into lower ohio valley. more isolated severe storm
development may extend into central/western texas.
...synopsis...
a broad cyclone will continue to deepen while migrating northeast of
the upper great lakes region through the southeastern hudson bay
vicinity tuesday through tuesday night. as a secondary shortwave
trough deepens across the central plains, another surface low will
develop near the oklahoma/texas panhandle region. an elongated cold
frontal zone will extend from the panhandles across eastern oklahoma
into the mississippi and ohio valley. widely scattered shower and
thunderstorm development is likely along this boundary as it sags
slowly south and east.
the evolution of features from d2 monday into d3 tuesday, including
any remnant outflow boundaries and ongoing storms ect remain
uncertain and thusly leads to some uncertainty in the d3 forecast.
it does appear that the parameter space along and south of the cold
front from eastern oklahoma/northeastern texas northward into the
mississippi river valley would be supportive of supercells, given
strong mid-level flow and sufficient deep layer shear. these would
likely pose some risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind,
and perhaps tornadoes. supercells will also be possible near/north
of the boundary across northern missouri into western kentucky, with
a risk for elevated storms and large hail. it is likely give the
orientation of shear parallel to the boundary that
clustering/upscale growth will be favored through time, with perhaps
several clusters/bowing segments and some increase of the damaging
wind threat into the mississippi valley/middle tennessee/ohio valley
through the evening. a broad 15% area was maintained, in alignment
with d3 ml csu/nssl guidance given uncertainty. a corridor of higher
probabilities may be warranted as details become more clear.
further south and west along the dryline in central texas, there is
some low chances that an isolated storm or two could develop in the
afternoon. forcing for ascent will be weaker across this region,
with mlcin in place through the morning. nonetheless, cin does
weaken through the early afternoon amid deeply mixed profiles and
steep lapse rates. a supercell or two could pose a risk for large
hail in this region.
..thornton.. 04/26/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z