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spc ac 280726

day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0226 am cdt thu mar 28 2024

valid 301200z - 311200z

...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...

...summary...
organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on saturday.

...synopsis and discussion...
a deep, closed upper low initially off the coast of central ca
should move slowly southward along/near the southern ca coast on
saturday. cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent
associated with an enhanced mid/upper-level jet should support weak
instability, and the potential for isolated lighting flashes with
any low-topped convection that can develop from parts of central
into southern ca. organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely
across this region given the meager mucape forecast.

isolated thunderstorms may occur saturday over parts of the southern
great lakes/oh valley, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across these areas. a weak surface low is also
forecast to develop eastward over this region in tandem with the
shortwave trough. limited low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints
generally in the low 50s, should temper how much instability can
develop through saturday afternoon given the presence of modest to
poor mid-level lapse rates. this will likely hinder the overall
severe threat across the oh valley, even though deep-layer shear
conditionally supports the potential for organized convection.

finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with elevated
convection that develops late saturday night into early sunday
morning across parts of ne into southwestern ia and northern mo.
low-level moisture is expected to gradually return northward across
the southern/central plains through the day, and this area will be
on northern fringe of this process. strong forcing associated with a
southerly low-level jet may provide sufficient lift for parcels to
reach their lfc. still, forecast mucape appears too weak to support
a meaningful hail threat through the end of the period (early sunday
morning).

..gleason.. 03/28/2024

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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z