spc ac 230730
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 am cdt tue jun 23 2026
valid 251200z - 261200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the central/northern high plains and northern oklahoma/southern
kansas into the ozarks....
...summary...
scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the central/northern high plains with a threat for large to very
large hail and severe wind, and across portions of northern oklahoma
and southern kansas into the ozarks on thursday.
...synopsis...
a mostly zonal pattern is forecast across the conus on thursday with
multiple embedded shortwave troughs. the two features of interest
will move from the northern great basin to wyoming with the second
shortwave trough moving from the four corners into the
central/southern plains. at the surface, a lee cyclone is expected
to develop in the texas panhandle vicinity with a frontal zone
extending eastward toward the ozarks.
...central/northern high plains...
moderate instability will develop across eastern wyoming and
northeast colorado amid persistent upslope flow. as mid-level flow
strengthens to 35 to 40 knots and mid-level forcing overspreads the
plains, expect supercells to develop across eastern wyoming and
northeast colorado. these storms will have a threat for large to
very large hail and severe wind gusts.
...northern oklahoma/southern kansas into the ozarks...
a mid-level shortwave trough should result in sufficient upper-level
support for storm development along the frontal zone. moderate to
strong instability is expected to overlap the same region with 40 to
50 knots of mid-level flow and a moderate low-level jet. some storm
activity may be ongoing with this shortwave trough on thursday
morning. therefore, the greatest storm threat should be on the
south/southwest extent of this morning activity. the environment
will support supercells capable of large hail, severe winds, and
perhaps even some tornadoes. the extent of the tornado threat will
depend on how strong the surface reflection associated with this
feature may be. a solution such as the nam has a much stronger
surface low and low-level jet response, which would enhance the
tornado threat along this frontal zone.
..bentley.. 06/23/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z