spc ac 230830
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 am cst fri jan 23 2026
valid 251200z - 261200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of
the central and eastern gulf coast...
...summary...
isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the
central and eastern gulf coast sunday.
...synopsis...
intensifying mid-level troughing over the central us will continue
to amplify as it moves eastward sunday. strong cyclonic flow aloft
will overspread portions of the southern us as a second embedded
perturbation skirts the central and eastern gulf coast before being
consolidated into the broader upper trough. ascent from this
shortwave will allow a weak surface low to develop and shift
east/northeastward over the tennessee valley before moving offshore
of the carolina coast early monday. attendant to the low, a strong
arctic cold front will sweep eastward across the southern conus.
modified gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability
and some potential for strong to severe storms.
...gulf coast...
as the surface low moves onshore and deepens ahead of the advancing
shortwave early sunday, inland moisture advection (60s f surface
dewpoints) is expected to increase over southeastern la into
southern ms/al and the western fl panhandle in the wake of a surface
warm front lifting northward. ongoing elevated convection near the
advancing cold front will likely encounter a warming/moistening
boundary layer sufficient for some intensification through the day
across south-central al into the fl panhandle and southwestern ga.
increasing southwesterly flow aloft (ebwd of 50-60 kt) will be
favorable for some storm organization amidst weak buoyancy (mlcape ~
500 j/kg). a broken band of storms along the cold front may pose a
risk for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado where the
boundary layer can destabilize sufficiently inland south of the
prominent cold air intrusion/damming and ongoing winter weather. the
cold front will then continue offshore overnight with the severe
risk diminishing as a much colder air mass envelops the eastern
conus.
..lyons.. 01/23/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z