spc ac 261926
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0126 pm cst thu feb 26 2026
valid 281200z - 011200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
thunderstorms will be possible across the florida peninsula and
across northern california and southern oregon on saturday.
additional thunderstorms may be possible across the southern plains
saturday evening into early sunday morning.
...synopsis...
a persistent northwest flow regime will continue across the conus
well into the weekend with continued upper ridging over the
southwest/west coast and the maintenance of a long-wave trough over
the east. within this flow regime, several embedded disturbances
will support areas of convection, namely over the florida peninsula
and across northern california and adjacent portions of or and nv.
isolated thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the
southern plains into the ozark plateau within a low-level warm
advection regime.
...fl peninsula...
isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the day
along the fl peninsula as ascent associated with a de-amplifying
upper wave persists over a buoyant and weakly capped environment.
although some hodograph elongation is noted in recent forecast
soundings, confidence in updraft intensity is limited due to modest
mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level convergence/forcing for
ascent. any appreciable severe threat would most likely manifest
along the fl east coast where sea-breeze convergence may focus
thunderstorm development, but confidence in this potential is too
limited at this time for risk probabilities.
...oklahoma into the ozark plateau...
zonal flow across the central rockies will promote steady lee
troughing along the high plains through late saturday night. in
response, warm/moist air advection is expected to increase through
the lowest few kilometers as a plume of low to mid-50s dewpoints
spreads north into ok within a southerly flow regime. isentropic
ascent within a weak deformation zone at around 850 mb will likely
be the impetus for thunderstorm development within the destabilizing
air mass by saturday evening. the quality of moisture
return/destabilization remains uncertain due to notable spread in
guidance, which lends low confidence in overall storm coverage and
intensity at this time. however, thunder probabilities were
maintained/introduced where agreement between long-range ensembles
and extended-range cams appears greatest.
...northern ca into or and nv...
a shortwave trough is forecast to crest the axis of the persistent
upper ridge in place along the ca coast. cold mid-level temperatures
under the upper low coupled with an influx of pacific moisture
through a deep layer should support convective elements within
broader precipitation bands. forecast soundings suggest buoyancy
profiles will remain too limited to support intense convection,
which should preclude a severe threat.
..moore.. 02/26/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0830z