spc ac 110725
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0225 am cdt sat apr 11 2026
valid 131200z - 141200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the upper mississippi valley...and across parts of the southern
plains...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms are possible across the upper mississippi
valley and great lakes region, and across portions of the southern
plains on monday.
...synopsis...
an upper trough from the northern rockies to southern ca will pivot
east on monday, overspreading the four corners vicinity by early
tuesday. meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east
across the northern plains to the upper midwest. at the surface, a
low over the mid-mo valley will shift east along a frontal wave
across mn/wi. persistent southwesterly deep-layer flow over the
rockies into the plains will maintain surface lee troughing across
the plains. meanwhile, south/southwesterly low-level flow will
maintain 60s f dewpoints from the southern plains toward lake
michigan.
...upper midwest...
some spread among various medium-range guidance in the
placement/track of the surface low leads to some uncertainty
regarding the northward extent of severe potential on monday.
nevertheless, a moist airmass will reside ahead of the low in the
vicinity of a surface warm front. storm coverage is uncertain,
partly due to possibly capping. however, persistent moderate
southwesterly flow atop the front as the low begins to shift east
should provide focus for thunderstorm development during the
afternoon and evening. steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated
hodographs suggest large hail will be possible both within the warm
sector and with any elevated storms on the cool side of the
boundary. some guidance suggests storms could consolidate into a bow
or linear segment, which would increase damaging wind potential.
however, this scenario is uncertain. some severe risk will persist
eastward along the warm front into mi overnight. these elevated
storms will mainly pose a hail risk.
...central/southern plains...
capping is likely to suppress convection along a dryline extending
across eastern ks into western ok/tx. the exception may be across
portions of western tx into southwest ok where modest height falls
could occur toward evening as the western upper trough beings to
slowly shift east toward the southern rockies. mid 60s f dewpoints
and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong
destabilization. strong heating along and west of the dryline will
support mixing and an increasing southerly low-level jet by 00z
could be sufficient for isolated storm development. supercell wind
profiles will support mainly a risk of large hail, though locally
damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible if storms
develop.
..leitman.. 04/11/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z