spc ac 011925
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0225 pm cdt fri may 01 2026
valid 031200z - 041200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms parts of the
mid-missouri and mid-mississippi valleys...
...summary...
a few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central missouri and central illinois on sunday.
...synopsis...
broad cyclonic flow aloft across much of the central/eastern conus
will continue on sunday. within the broader cyclone, shortwave
troughs will rotate into the northern plains and lower
missouri/mid-mississippi valleys. a surface high will continue to
shift southeastward allowing some southerly return flow into the
southern plains/mid-south into parts of missouri/illinois. as the
northern plains trough intensifies, a weak surface boundary will
move southeastward into the midwest.
...lower missouri/mid-mississippi valleys...
moisture return ahead of the weak surface front is not expected to
be significant. the initial return flow pattern may allow low 50s f
dewpoints to reach parts of missouri/illinois. despite the limited
moisture, temperatures aloft will be quite cold (nearing -20 c at
500 mb). at least a narrow zone of 1000-2000 j/kg mlcape appears
possible. storm coverage may remain isolated, but there is
reasonable confidence in development given surface convergence and
aid from a passing shortwave trough by late afternoon. where storms
can develop, 40-50 kt of effective shear, a well-mixed boundary
layer, and the steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk for
large hail and severe wind gusts. the most notable change with this
outlook is to shift probabilities southward given the latest
guidance trends.
..wendt.. 05/01/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z