spc ac 050640
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0140 am cdt tue may 05 2026
valid 071200z - 081200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the
central gulf coast to south carolina...
...summary...
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on thursday
across portions of the central gulf coast into south carolina.
...gulf coast to sc...
a large upper trough will pivot over the eastern u.s. on thursday.
strong west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will be in place across
the southeast into the mid-atlantic. at the surface, a cold front
will develop south/southeast across portions of south tx, the
central gulf coast states and the southeast/mid-atlantic vicinity. a
seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the boundary, and
some risk for strong to severe storms will exist near the
progressing cold front from southern ms/al into sc.
there is some uncertainty regarding the position of the cold front
thursday morning. the nam is faster compared to the gfs and ecmwf.
nevertheless, rich gulf moisture ahead of the boundary will support
at least modest destabilization. convection will likely be ongoing
near the front thursday morning. redevelopment or intensification
into midday and through the afternoon appears plausible given strong
deep-layer flow within the modestly unstable airmass. clusters and
linear convection appear most likely, with an attendant risk of
damaging wind.
...south tx...
severe potential across south tx is uncertain and will depend on
cold frontal position thursday morning. if southward progress of the
front is slowly, some risk of severe could develop across south tx
where 70s dewpoints and daytime heating could support strong
instability. if storms develop, a risk for hail appears possible.
however, some forecast guidance surges the cold front southward
across the region during the morning and maintains capping through
the day. low confidence precludes severe probabilities at this time.
..leitman.. 05/05/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z