spc ac 270726
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0226 am cdt fri mar 27 2026
valid 291200z - 301200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southern florida
peninsula and portions of southern arizona sunday afternoon and
evening. severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...synopsis...
an upper-level ridge (currently in place over the southwest) is
forecast to shift east over the plains through the day sunday.
broad-scale subsidence/height rises ahead of the ridge will promote
mostly dry and stable conditions for the central and eastern conus.
thunderstorm potential will most likely be relegated to the southern
fl peninsula where weak ascent within a residual frontal zone (aided
by diurnally-drive sea breeze boundaries) may support a few
thunderstorms within a moist and weakly capped environment. while
confidence is lower, isolated convection appears possible across
parts of southern arizona late sunday afternoon where modest
low-level moisture advection, coupled with ample daytime heating,
steep mid-level lapse rates, and weak ascent from a mid-level
impulse may support high-based convection. based on forecast
thermodynamic profiles, conditions may be supportive of strong
downburst winds. however, confidence in storm coverage and the
severe wind potential is too low for highlights.
..moore.. 03/27/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z