spc ac 030830
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 am cst tue mar 03 2026
valid 051200z - 061200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the southern and central plains...
...summary...
scattered severe thunderstorms are expected thursday afternoon and
evening across parts of the southern and central plains. large hail,
isolated severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible.
marginally severe storms may also develop from thursday evening into
the overnight across the central plains and mid missouri valley.
...great plains/mid missouri valley...
at mid-levels, flow will become southwesterly across the great
plains on thursday, as a strong low pressure system moves though the
intermountain west. at the surface, a low will deepen across eastern
colorado, as south-southeasterly flow strengthens across the
southern and central plains. low-level moisture will advect
northward across oklahoma, northwest texas and the texas panhandle
during the afternoon. a dryline is forecast to develop across west
texas as a thermal/instability axis sets up over west-central texas.
scattered storms are expected to initiate near the dryline on the
caprock in the late afternoon, moving eastward into the southern
plains during the early evening. as moisture advection continues,
additional storms should develop further north into far southern
kansas during the evening.
late afternoon forecast soundings in west texas from big spring to
childress have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, mlcape around 1500 j/kg,
and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 c/km. this will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. a tornado
threat, along with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will
be possible with the most intense cells. the storms are expected to
move eastward into western oklahoma and the lower rolling plains of
northwest texas during the evening, with additional cells developing
across southern kansas. the strengthening low-level jet will help
sustain a threat for hail and severe gusts.
further north across the central plains and mid missouri valley,
moisture and instability will gradually increase during the evening
as a low-level jet strengthens. scattered elevated storms are
expected to develop near the low-level jet around midnight and
should increase in coverage during the overnight period. mucape in
the 500 to 1000 j/kg range, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the
7 to 8 c/km range should be favorable for hail. the severe threat is
expected to persist through late in the period.
..broyles.. 03/03/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z