spc ac 071853
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0153 pm cdt tue jul 07 2026
valid 091200z - 101200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
central high plains...
...summary...
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact portions of the
central great plains through middle mississippi valley and ohio
valleys, and over parts of the mid atlantic thursday through
thursday night.
...central plains...
modest 20-30 kt westerlies will exist across the high plains, with
the stronger wind speeds from mt into nd. temperatures aloft will
remain seasonably cool with -8 to -10 c from co into mt. storms are
forecast to develop over eastern wy and co after 21z near the front
range where heating will be strong, and spread across western ne,
ks, and the ok panhandle late. an mcs may develop into ks, where
stronger instability will persist. large hail appears probable with
the initial activity, before transitioning to mainly damaging wind.
the steep lapse rates aloft will support robust storms propagating
into the backed boundary layer easterlies.
...mo eastward across il, in, ky...
persistent west to southwest winds near 850 mb will maintain a
theta-e plume as a weak upper trough moves across the region. early
day storms are possible moving out of ks, and some reorganization is
possible as the air mass destabilizes with locally damaging gusts.
afternoon activity is also expected from lower mi into northern il,
and this may increase in coverage overnight across il and in,
perhaps into ky. shear will be marginal in all areas, with a moist
and unstable air mass. predictability is low for this setup, but a
large area of at least isolated severe gust potential is evident.
...parts of the mid atlantic...
a low-amplitude feature aloft with 35 kt midlevel winds is forecast
to move across the appalachians and into va/nc area during the day.
meanwhile, a surface trough will deepen during the afternoon with a
moist air mass contributing to 1500-2000 j/kg mucape. the increased
winds and deep shear may aid storm longevity somewhat, with cells or
clusters developing and moving quickly southeast across the area.
midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, but storms
coinciding with peak heating may yield a few severe wind gusts.
..jewell.. 07/07/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z