spc ac 191934
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0234 pm cdt sun jul 19 2026
valid 211200z - 221200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of
kentucky northeastward into western pennsylvania...
...summary...
numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
from the ohio valley into the mid-atlantic and northeast on tuesday.
all severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
should be the primary severe risk tuesday afternoon into the
nighttime hours.
...oh valley into the mid atlantic and northeast...
severe storms will be likely over a large area tuesday, from parts
of the midwest and ohio valley extending across the mid atlantic as
increasing winds aloft overspread a large area of low-level
moisture.
a mean upper trough will remain over much of region, with various
waves rotating around. a leading wave will aid storm development
during the day from eastern va northward into southwest new england,
well ahead of the main cold front to the west. southwest flow at 850
mb of 30-40 kt will support northward moisture advection as winds
aloft increase, and storms should form by early to mid afternoon
within a pre-frontal trough. veering winds with height should
support scattered supercells or storm clusters, and damaging winds
or isolated tornadoes may occur.
meanwhile, an area of greater severe potential will develop
immediately near and ahead of a cold front which should extend
roughly from northern oh/in into southern il during the afternoon.
this region will be ahead of a stronger mid/upper jet in a northwest
flow regime. dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s f with mlcape
over 3000 j/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kt. the long hodographs
should support a dominant supercell storm mode, with large hail, a
few tornadoes, and damaging winds all possible from late afternoon
into the night.
the greatest risk area is currently forecast from parts of kentucky
and indiana across ohio, west virginia, and western pennsylvania.
however, these areas will likely be adjusted spatially as
predictability increases in later updates.
..jewell.. 07/19/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z