spc ac 271930
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 pm cdt mon apr 27 2026
valid 291200z - 301200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of the
allegheny plateau to the mid atlantic...and also from parts of texas
to the central gulf coast region...
...summary...
strong to locally severe storms are possible across parts of the
allegheny plateau into mid atlantic, as well as from west-central
texas to the central gulf coast, mainly wednesday afternoon and
evening.
...west-central tx into the southeast/central gulf coast...
a substantial buoyancy reservoir is expected to persist from parts
of central/south tx toward the lower ms valley on wednesday. due to
substantial early-week convection, considerable uncertainty remains
regarding the potential for an ongoing isolated severe threat in the
morning, and the location of the composite front/outflow and
potential redevelopment during the afternoon and evening.
with favorable instability and deep-layer shear, the environment
will be conditionally favorable for organized convection, including
potential for large hail and locally damaging wind. large-scale
ascent is likely to be displaced north of the primary surface
boundary and strongest instability, so storm coverage remains
uncertain, but isolated supercells and/or small clusters will be
possible along/south of the front. an increase in severe
probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of this region,
depending on observational and guidance trends regarding boundary
placement and anticipated storm coverage.
...allegheny plateau to the mid atlantic...
a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from
the midwest toward the mid atlantic on wednesday. an attendant
surface low will move from the upper oh valley toward the delmarva
region, with trailing front extending southwestward into parts of
the southeast, carolinas, and virginia by afternoon. the expectation
for substantial early-day cloudiness and precipitation continues to
result in uncertainty regarding potential for appreciable
destabilization during the afternoon. if sufficient destabilization
can occur, then favorable large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear
related to the approaching shortwave trough could support organized
storms, with a threat of damaging wind and possibly some hail.
due to the lingering uncertainties regarding destabilization, a
broad level 1/marginal risk is maintained with this outlook. an
eventual increase in severe probabilities will be possible for parts
of the region, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved.
..dean.. 04/27/2026
click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product
note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z