spc ac 031930
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 pm cdt fri apr 03 2026
valid 051200z - 061200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms sunday across
parts of the southern mid atlantic coast...
...summary...
strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern mid atlantic
coast vicinity sunday, accompanied by at least some risk for
damaging wind gusts.
...discussion...
latest model output suggests that a broad, deep occluded surface
cyclone may deepen at least a bit further while migrating
east-northeastward across quebec during this period. renewed
cyclogenesis appears possible across the canadian maritimes by
sunday evening, with a trailing cold front advancing offshore of the
northern through middle atlantic coast by early monday, while
slowing/stalling across parts of northern florida.
pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization, where deep-layer mean
flow and shear appears sufficient to support convective
organization, is forecast to remain weak, due to generally weak
tropospheric lapse rates. it appears that this may become focused
along lee surface troughing across and east of the carolina
piedmont, perhaps as far north as a developing low/frontal wave
across south central virginia into the southern delmarva peninsula
by late sunday afternoon.
forcing for ascent, downstream of a short wave impulse progressing
through the base of approaching larger-scale mid-level troughing, is
likely to aid convective development, with sheared, 30-50 kt
south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer contributing
convective organization with potential to produce damaging wind
gusts. a narrow broken squall line may evolve, with perhaps
embedded supercell structures which could also pose the risk for a
tornado or two while spreading toward coastal areas by early sunday
evening.
..kerr.. 04/03/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z