spc ac 311935
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0235 pm cdt sun may 31 2026
valid 021200z - 031200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms fom eastern
wyoming into the dakotas...
...summary...
thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected on tuesday across parts of the northern high plains. strong
wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and
central high plains, and along the eastern gulf coast.
...synopsis...
an upper trough over the eastern states is forecast to become a
cut-off low near or just offshore the carolinas on tuesday, with a
weak ridge extending from the southern plains into the upper great
lakes. to the west, a shortwave trough will move out of mt and the
dakotas and into southern canada.
at the surface, high pressure will extend from the great lakes into
the oh/tn valleys, with dry air pushing across the ms valley and
toward the gulf coast. a plume of relatively moist air will remain
from tx into the central plains, with mid 60s f dewpoints as far
north as western ks and mid 50s f to the cold front in the dakotas.
...northern to central high plains...
severe storms are most likely ahead of a cold front tuesday
afternoon from eastern wy into the central dakotas. this area will
reside beneath the relatively stronger flow aloft, and midlevel
lapse rates will be steep. southerly pre-frontal winds veering to
westerly with height will create wind profiles favorable for a few
supercells and bows forming over far eastern wy and spreading into
the dakotas during the evening. the low-level jet will not be very
strong, but perhaps sufficient for a couple tornadoes.
farther south, scattered storms are likely into the central and
southern high plains as strong heating, southeast surface winds with
50s f dewpoints and a weak surface trough aid development by late
afternoon. locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible
as lapse rates aloft remain steep, but shear marginal.
...northern fl and vicinity...
a cold front will push south during the day, as heating aids
moderate destabilization. modest west to northwest flow aloft around
the southern periphery of the trough over the carolinas will support
mobile clusters of storms mainly over the fl panhandle and northern
fl by late afternoon and lasting through early evening. storms may
produce locally strong wind gusts near peak heating, and a few cells
may produce marginal hail into northeast fl given relatively
stronger mid to high level flow. isolated cells may also develop
along the east coast sea breeze.
..jewell.. 05/31/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z