spc ac 200745
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0145 am cst tue jan 20 2026
valid 221200z - 231200z
...no thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
thunderstorms are not expected on thursday.
...synopsis...
an upper shortwave trough/low near the ca coast will develop east
toward southern ca/northern baja by friday morning. as this occurs,
upper flow over the eastern half of the conus will become
flatter/quasi-zonal. at the surface, arctic high pressure will build
over the canadian prairies and begin to slide southward into the
plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. forecast guidance varies in
the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but
the expectation is that by early friday morning, the front will be
located somewhere near central ok to the red river, and stretch
eastward toward the mid-south.
modified gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from
central/southern tx toward the central gulf coast. isolated
convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front
late thursday night/early friday morning across north tx/southern ok
within warm advection around 850 mb. however, instability is
expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. further
south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be
limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude
destabilization.
..leitman.. 01/20/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z