spc ac 250715
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0215 am cdt thu jun 25 2026
valid 271200z - 281200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the northern plains....
...summary...
severe storms are likely across portions of eastern montana and
western north dakota on saturday. more isolated strong to severe
storms are possible from the mid-mississippi valley to virginia and
the carolinas.
...synopsis...
on saturday, the leading edge of a larger mid-level shortwave trough
will eject across the northern plains. a surface lee cyclone will
develop in this vicinity. farther east, a weak surface low is
forecast to move from the ohio valley to the east coast, weakening
through the period.
...northern plains...
low-level southerly flow will strengthen through the day saturday
within the warm sector of a lee cyclone across the plains. this will
lead to destabilization and moderate to strong instability by
mid-afternoon saturday. storms will initially form across parts of
central and eastern montana, and will likely grow upscale into a mcs
as it moves northeast through the evening.
additionally, there is some supercell threat east of this activity
during the afternoon/evening. this is a more conditional threat, but
the environment would support tornadoes and very large hail if more
isolated storms form. for now, the 15% probabilities cover the most
likely region for a severe wind threat from a mcs, with some area
farther east included for the conditional supercell threat.
...mid-mississippi valley to the carolinas and virginia...
moderate to strong instability is forecast along and south of a
frontal zone from the mid-mississippi valley to the carolinas on
saturday afternoon. forecast soundings show weak shear across this
zone, but at least moderately steep mid-level lase rates and
moderate instability may support some damaging winds saturday
afternoon/evening. slightly greater damaging wind potential may
exist across virginia into north carolina along an eastward
advancing cold front where moderate to strong instability is
forecast beneath a mid-level shortwave trough and associated
slightly stronger flow.
..bentley.. 06/25/2026
click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product
note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z