spc ac 291855
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0155 pm cdt fri may 29 2026
valid 311200z - 011200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the
northern plains to the ozarks...
...summary...
thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible
on sunday from parts of the lower to mid missouri valley into the
central and northern plains.
...synopsis...
mid-level ridging will build across the central portion of the conus
with a deepening trough moving from quebec into the northeast on
sunday. a broad, weak surface trough will extend from the central
plains to the northern plains. a moist environment will exist ahead
of this trough with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.
...northern plains into the central plains and ozarks...
a frontal zone is forecast to extend from the northern plains to the
midwest sunday morning. south of this boundary, moderate to strong
instability is forecast to develop amid upper 60s to low 70s
dewpoints. despite the strong instability along this frontal zone,
convective development (particularly strong storm development)
remains uncertain given strong height rises expected across the
region beneath the building ridge. however, if storms are able to
develop, 25 to 30 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for
storm organization and perhaps some rotating updrafts. large hail
and damaging winds will be the primary threats.
...west texas to western oklahoma...
storms are expected to develop across west texas sunday afternoon
amid moderate instability. however, very weak mid-level flow will be
present across the region which will likely lead to storm mergers
and relatively quick upscale growth into a likely non-severe mcs.
given the steep lapse rates across the area, some isolated severe
wind gusts may occur, particularly early in storm lifecycles. this
potential does not appear large enough for 5 percent probabilities
at this time.
..bentley.. 05/29/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z