spc ac 010617
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0117 am cdt fri may 01 2026
valid 031200z - 041200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of
the middle mississippi valley...
...summary...
a few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern
missouri, southeast iowa and central illinois on sunday.
...mid-ms valley...
northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region on the back
side of an eastern u.s. upper trough. cold temperatures aloft (near
-20 c at 500 mb) will foster steep midlevel lapse rates and support
moderate mlcape values around 1000-2000 j/kg. however, boundary
layer moisture is expected to be limited by a prior cold front
passage as modified gulf moisture remains well offshore. surface
dewpoints are generally forecast to be in the 50s as temperatures
warm into the 70s. isolated thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon within the unstable airmass amid strong west/northwesterly
deep-layer flow. some forecast guidance depicts modest capping
across the region while large-scale ascent remains nebulous. if
storms can develop and be maintained, a risk for strong wind gusts
and hail will be possible.
..leitman.. 05/01/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z