spc ac 091905
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0205 pm cdt sat may 09 2026
valid 111200z - 121200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms monday afternoon
across parts of the southeast...
...summary...
isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are possible
monday afternoon across parts of the southeast.
...southeast monday afternoon...
a surface cold front will move southeastward into the northwest gulf
early in the period, likely aided by outflow from d2 convection.
farther east, the front will reach the coast of the carolinas monday
afternoon, and the northeast gulf coast/north fl by late monday
night or early tuesday morning. aloft, a midlevel trough will
progress eastward near the gulf coast, in advance of the next
digging wave over the northern plains and upper ms valley.
thunderstorms will be possible within the moist environment along
the front. a few strong storms/clusters with wind damage may occur
monday afternoon along the front, where pockets of stronger surface
heating occur in cloud breaks, coincident with modest enhancement of
midlevel flow/deep-layer shear. isolated strong storms will also be
possible along the atlantic coast sea breeze into the fl peninsula.
...northern plains to upper ms valley monday afternoon/night...
low-level moisture will remain limited in advance of a midlevel
trough digging southeastward, around the northeast periphery of a
ridge over the southwest. deep surface mixing along the surface
front/trough could support isolated, high-based storms monday
afternoon across nd. however, the more probable scenario will be
for a few elevated storms to form by monday evening/night over mn
and adjacent areas of wi/ia where sufficient midlevel
moistening/ascent occurs on the east edge of the steeper midlevel
lapse rates.
..thompson.. 05/09/2026
click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product
note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z