spc ac 091927
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0227 pm cdt wed jul 09 2025
valid 111200z - 121200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in central ks to
eastern ia...
...summary...
scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon
and evening on friday, from central kansas to eastern iowa.
...central states...
primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-slgt risk for the
most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon
and evening friday. have also expanded the longitudinal extent of
the level 1-mrgl in the north-central states and southward through
the southern high plains.
a decaying mcs should be ongoing at 12z friday in vicinity of ia. an
attendant mcv with this activity may be separate from the mid-level
impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge
onto the central great plains thursday night. a belt of modestly
enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will
support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development
occurs towards peak heating. this is anticipated from along a
retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the
dryline mixing into central ks. with ample buoyancy, scattered
severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard.
isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region.
along the synoptic cold front in northern mn to eastern sd,
mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front,
owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the
shortwave trough across the southern canadian prairies into the
northern great plains. modest mid-level northwesterlies will support
an isolated severe threat across the central/southern high plains,
with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment.
...east...
a low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from qc to the
canadian maritimes. weak height rises will occur in its wake across
new england. still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms
will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear
could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat friday
afternoon.
farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable friday
afternoon from the de to savannah valleys. prior days of extensive
convective overturning should temper pw values/storm coverage to an
extent. this suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued.
..grams.. 07/09/2025
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z