spc ac 100711
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0211 am cdt fri apr 10 2026
valid 121200z - 131200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
kansas...oklahoma and texas...
...summary...
isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central plains into the upper midwest on sunday.
...central/southern plains to the upper midwest...
an upper trough will slowly pivot east across the western u.s. on
sunday. low-amplitude, broad southwesterly flow will persist
downstream of the western trough across much of the rest of the u.s.
a weak upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the upper
midwest through midday before weakening over the great lakes during
the afternoon. at the surface, weak troughing will extend from mn
into ne and southward across western ks/ok/tx. low 60s f dewpoints
will be in place east of the surface trough from tx into ia/il/wi.
quite a bit of uncertainty exists for the day 3 period and forecast
confidence is fairly low. precipitation will likely be ongoing
across portions of ok/tx, and possibly northward into ks and the
upper midwest as a continuation of day 2 overnight storms and
persistent warm advection. a weak shortwave impulse over the
southern plains sunday morning will quickly shift northeast through
midday. it is unclear how this may impact destabilization later in
the day. in the wake of the morning shortwave, large-scale ascent
will remain nebulous. furthermore, the upper shortwave trough moving
across the northern plains to the upper midwest may be ill-timed
with peak heating, and may lead to subsidence across the region
during the afternoon in the wake of this feature.
nevertheless, some severe risk, albeit conditional, will be possible
across portions of the central/southern plains, likely focused along
the surface trough/dryline from central ks into western ok and
portions of western/north tx. supercell vertical wind profiles are
evident in forecast soundings, with weak capping noted just above
850 mb. steep lapse rates above this layer will be supported by cool
temperatures aloft, and mlcape values could climb to near 2000 j/kg.
storm coverage is uncertain, but if storms can develop and become
sustained, all severe hazards will be possible.
a conditional supercell environment will also exist across the upper
midwest ahead of a surface low, though severe risk will depend on
timing of the aforementioned upper shortwave trough. given
uncertainty, will introduce low severe probabilities (level 1 of 5)
and trends will be monitored.
..leitman.. 04/10/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z