spc ac 251931
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0231 pm cdt mon may 25 2026
valid 271200z - 281200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the
mid-atlantic states...
...summary...
some severe storms may occur on wednesday, with the mid-atlantic
region appearing to have the primary potential for severe storms
capable of wind damage wednesday afternoon and early evening.
...mid-atlantic states...
strong to potentially severe storms may occur across the region
wednesday afternoon and evening. this will be as the upstream
shortwave trough overspreads a moist/unstable environment along and
south of a roughly west/east-oriented front. damaging winds would
likely be the most probable severe-weather risk.
...south/southeast texas to louisiana...
this is currently expected to a be rather complex scenario into the
day 3 time frame with the uncertain timing/location of a potential
lingering mcs somewhere across south/southeast texas to southern
louisiana. some severe potential could linger across the coastal
plain and/or redevelop later wednesday across southwest texas and
the adjacent southern high plains via low-level upslope flow,
although mid-level winds will be relatively weak.
...northern intermountain west...
some strong to locally severe storms could again occur wednesday
afternoon and evening within a marginally moist/unstable environment
beneath the upper-jet exit region on the periphery of the prominent
upper trough expected to be centered over california and nevada.
...southern minnesota/southern wisconsin/northern iowa...
a few strong/severe storms could occur as an unstable environment
persists near the southward-shifting front. such storm development
might be aided by a glancing shortwave trough with somewhat
strengthening flow aloft. however, overall predictability in this
scenario is limited in the day 3 time frame.
...south-central high plains/raton mesa vicinity...
a few strong or locally severe storms could occur regionally
wednesday afternoon and evening. however, mid-level lapse rates and
deep-layer winds should remain relatively weak, and thus overall
severe potential is expected to remain rather low/disorganized.
..guyer.. 05/25/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z