spc ac 021925
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0225 pm cdt thu apr 02 2026
valid 041200z - 051200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms mainly saturday
afternoon/evening across the upper ohio valley and from the
mid-south into southeast texas...
...summary...
occasional wind damage will be possible with storms along and in
advance of a cold front across the upper ohio valley and from
southeast texas into the mid-south.
...upper oh valley and vicinity...
a surface cold front will move eastward from the ms valley into the
oh valley, to the south of a cyclone progressing into on/qc and in
advance of an associated midlevel trough. the typical uncertainties
surround lingering clouds/rain on the west edge of the outlook area,
but a gradual increase in low-level moisture and surface heating in
cloud breaks will support weak buoyancy in advance of the cold front
saturday afternoon/evening. likewise, an increase in low-midlevel
flow with the approaching midlevel trough will support the potential
for some wind damage with bands of convection along/ahead of the
front. the main threat will be during the afternoon/evening, with a
gradual weakening of convection expected overnight.
...southeast tx to the mid-south...
widespread convection is expected along a cold front late friday
into early saturday, and this front will continue southeastward
through the day. boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s and
surface heating in cloud breaks ahead of the remnant morning
convection will contribute to moderate buoyancy (mlcape of 1000-1500
j/kg) in the warm sector. wind profiles will be a little more
favorable for sustained storms across the northern part of the mrgl
area, closer to the southern fringe of the stronger midlevel
westerly flow. the forecast pattern best supports isolated wind
damage as the primary concern given the modest vertical shear and
midlevel lapse rates, though the marginal nature of the scenario and
likely influences of morning convection suggest additional
refinements are likely in later updates.
..thompson.. 04/02/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z