spc ac 290725
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0225 am cdt wed jul 29 2026
valid 311200z - 011200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over the ozark
plateau and central and southern high plains...
...summary...
isolated occurrences of mainly damaging winds and hail appear
possible over the ozark plateau and central and southern high plains
friday afternoon and evening.
...synopsis...
a vigorous short-wave trough over the upper midwest into the mid mo
valley friday morning will progress into the mid ms valley with a
belt of 30-35 kt mid-level flow forecast within the western through
southern periphery of that feature. in the low levels, a surface low
is expected to deepen slightly while developing through ia into
west-central il with a north-south-oriented warm front preceding the
cyclone. meanwhile, a trailing cold front will move through the
lower mo valley and ozark plateau with the western extension of the
boundary advancing through the southern high plains.
...mid mississippi valley into the ozark plateau...
showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing friday morning
ahead of the surface low from central and eastern ia into mo within
a zone of warm advection and moist transport along a 30-40 kt
low-level jet (llj). the llj will be maintained through the forecast
period ahead of the surface-850 mb low with the same processes
likely sustaining showers and thunderstorms near and to the east of
the associated warm front/moisture discontinuity. a zone of enhanced
low-level shear will coincide with the llj axis; however, it remains
unclear whether sufficient surface-based destabilization will occur
within the narrow warm sector over the mid ms valley for a tornado
threat to materialize.
isolated severe storms appear more probable along and ahead of the
cold front over the ozark plateau friday afternoon into evening,
where a wider and more unstable warm sector is expected to reside.
the presence of a vertically veering wind profile with modestly
strong low-level and deep-layer shear may be sufficient for some
storm organization and an associated damaging wind and possible
tornado threat. only a 5% probability and level 1/marginal risk will
be included in this forecast due to uncertainty in surface-based
storm coverage.
...central and southern high plains...
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible friday
afternoon into evening within a moist and moderately unstable
post-frontal upslope regime. sufficient deep-layer shear is forecast
to support some storm organization with an associated risk for
marginally severe hail and isolated severe wind gusts.
..mead.. 07/29/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z