spc ac 061929
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0229 pm cdt sat jun 06 2026
valid 081200z - 091200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over the central
high plains...and over the far northern plains late...
...summary...
isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
appear possible across the central high plains monday afternoon and
evening. isolated hail cannot be ruled out over the far northern
plains near the canadian border into tuesday morning.
...synopsis...
on monday, a shortwave trough will continue moving north across
central canada, with height rises across the plains during the day.
scattered early day thunderstorms are expected to diminish across
the northern plains and upper ms valley as subsidence occurs aloft.
during the afternoon, a lee trough is forecast to redevelop from
eastern wy into co and toward the ok/tx panhandles, where strong
heating will lead to steep low-level lapse rates and a deeply mixed
boundary layer. moisture will be more limited, but late-developing
southeast surface winds will eventually bring higher dewpoints
westward toward the surface trough.
...central plains...
storms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and early
evening over eastern co, with more isolated activity along the
dryline into the tx panhandle. deep-layer shear near 35 kt as well
as increasing 850 mb winds may support a few clusters of storms
persisting into western ne and ks through the evening as well.
locally damaging wind gusts appear most probable.
...far northeast mt...northern nd...northwest mn...
a warm front will develop and surge northward late monday night into
tuesday morning, close to the canadian border by 12z. this will
occur ahead of a developing shortwave trough moving into the
northern rockies. forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated
cape will be possible, as a 40 kt southerly low-level jet brings
moisture northward. lapse rates aloft will be steep, and may favor
isolated hail.
...mid ms/oh valleys...
a slow-moving midlevel wave is likely to be located over the mid ms
to oh valley, where a very moist air mass will exist. scattered
thunderstorms are likely with this feature, which may also be
accompanied by stronger low-level shear on the mesoscale. however,
predictability for this feature is low this far out in time.
..jewell.. 06/06/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z