spc ac 101904
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0204 pm cdt fri jul 10 2026
valid 121200z - 131200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of the arklatex into the southeast...and across parts of arizona...
...summary...
scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind
damage will be possible across much of the southeast on sunday.
additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across
portions of arizona late sunday afternoon into sunday night.
...synopsis...
an upper anticyclone will persist across portions of great basin
into wyoming. enhanced easterly flow on the southern periphery of
this feature will overspread portions of az. further east, a closed
upper low is forecast to develop over the ohio valley, with a
surface low meandering across ky toward the central appalachians. an
outflow boundary is expected to be oriented across portions of the
tn valley westward into the southern plains.
...arklatex to ga/sc...
a very moist airmass will be in place along/south of the surface
boundary draped west to east across the region. these upper 60s to
low 70s f dewpoints and strong heating will support moderate to
strong instability and convection should develop by early afternoon
along the surface boundary. vertical shear will remain modest,
generally around 20 kt or less, suggesting short-lived single cells
and multicells clusters will be possible. high pw values and strong
instability will support strong gusts with sporadic wind damage
possible.
...az...
steep midlevel lapse rates and ample midlevel moisture will support
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development within a weakly
unstable airmass. a deeply mixed boundary layer and steep low-level
lapse rates will allow for strong outflow winds as convection
generally spreads westward across portions of southern into central
az.
..leitman.. 07/10/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z