spc ac 281919
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0219 pm cdt sat mar 28 2026
valid 301200z - 311200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern
iowa into lower michigan...
...summary...
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the upper mississippi river valley to lower michigan late monday
night into early tuesday morning.
...discussion...
a progressive low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the
northern rockies and into the northern plains monday into tuesday
morning, with cooling aloft spreading into the upper ms valley/great
lakes late. ahead of this feature, low pressure will develop over
the northern plains during the day, translating east across ia and
toward wi overnight and into tuesday morning.
east of the developing low, a quasi-stationary front will extend
across southern mn into central wi and northern lower mi, with
little northward progress. southerly winds across the warm sector
will persist through the period and bring mid 50s f dewpoints
northward toward the surface front. much of the day looks to be
capped, but increasing lift after 00z along with persistent
moistening from the southwest will result in elevated instability,
possibly extending as far northern wi/lower mi. deep-layer shear
will favor hail.
a conditional risk of a few severe storms may also develop south of
the boundary from eastern ia into northern il as the low-level jet
increases during the evening. in addition to hail, the warm/dry
sub-cloud layer would favor potential damaging gusts with any
cluster of storms.
..jewell.. 03/28/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z