spc ac 280730
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 am cdt sun jun 28 2026
valid 301200z - 011200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the central
high plains into the upper midwest...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central high
plains into the upper midwest on tuesday.
...upper midwest...
though the primary shortwave trough will be lifting into canada, a
remnant cold front will be situated across parts of northern
wisconsin into minnesota. strong to extreme buoyancy will be present
south of this boundary. a belt of moderate mid-level flow will
promote 40-45 kt of effective shear within the warm sector.
mid-level ascent will generally be weak. where convection can
initiate on the mesoscale, damaging winds and large hail may occur.
there is some potential that an mcs could develop given the
substantial buoyancy, but it is not clear where the preferred
corridor for that will be at this time.
...northeast colorado into southwest nebraska...
a modest shortwave trough will move into the central rockies. a
surface low is expected to develop in eastern colorado. this will
draw low-level moisture into parts of the high plains. given around
40 kt of effective shear, supercells capable of large hail and
severe gusts would be possible. low-level shear will also be
enhanced near the surface low and a tornado or two could also occur.
...northeast...
given the upper-level pattern, strong convection could be occurring
in canada and move southeastward around the upper ridge. depending
on the timing/intensity of this potential activity, severe
probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. confidence remains
low at this time, however.
..wendt.. 06/28/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z