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spc ac 070808

day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0208 am cst tue dec 07 2021

valid 091200z - 101200z

...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...

...summary...
severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous united
states on thursday.

...synopsis and discussion...
large-scale upper troughing is expected to amplify over the western
conus on thursday. a southern-stream shortwave trough initially just
west of baja california should move quickly northeastward over
northern mexico through the day. this feature is forecast to
eventually reach the southern plains late thursday night into early
friday morning while being absorbed into the synoptic-scale upper
trough over the western states. robust lee cyclogenesis appears
likely over the central high plains through the period. a strong
low-level mass response will transport rich low-level moisture from
the gulf of mexico northward across central/east tx, the lower ms
valley, and mid-south by the end of the period. mainly elevated
convection appears possible across this general region in the warm
and moist low-level advection regime. mucape is forecast to remain
fairly muted owing to modest mid-level lapse rates, which should
temper the overall severe potential with any thunderstorms that can
develop on thursday. across the pacific northwest, isolated
lightning flashes appear possible mainly along/near the wa/or coast
with low-topped convection as cold mid-level temperatures associated
with a progressive shortwave trough overspread this region.

..gleason.. 12/07/2021

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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0830z