spc ac 111930
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 pm cdt thu jun 11 2026
valid 131200z - 141200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms saturday afternoon
into saturday night across parts of the central great plains through
lower missisouri valley region...
...summary...
one or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across
parts of the central great plains and lower missouri valley vicinity
saturday afternoon through saturday night, accompanied by potential
for strong, damaging wind gusts.
...discussion...
downstream of amplified mid-level ridging, offshore of the u.s.
pacific coast through british columbia, it appears that flow will
begin to veer to an increasing northwesterly component across the
rockies through mississippi valley during this period. within this
regime, mid-level troughing may sharpen southwest of a lingering
mid-level low centered to the southwest of hudson bay, through the
lower missouri valley, but this may be comprised of at least a
couple of short wave perturbations, with the details of this
evolution still uncertain.
in lower levels, surges of cooler/drier air will continue to develop
southward through the interior of the u.s., with the general leading
edge reaching the lower great lakes through ohio river, ozarks
plateau and texas south plains by 12z sunday. this may be preceded
by extensive convective development and expanding outflow, to the
west-southwest of a weakening initial frontal zone to the lee of the
southern appalachians.
...central great plains through lower missouri valley...
lingering uncertainties, including those due to model spread and the
extended time frame, preclude introduction of higher severe
probabilities, at least at this time. however, a consensus of model
output suggests at least conditional potential for the evolution of
an extensive organized convective system, perhaps including one or
two large clusters developing and propagating southeastward across
the central great plains/lower missouri valley vicinity by late
saturday afternoon and evening.
in the wake of a weakening preceding front, it appears that
low-level moisture return may contribute to a corridor of large
potential instability, particularly across the central great plains
into lower missouri valley/ozark plateau, to the north of remnant
mid-level subtropical ridging. beneath a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air emanating from the southern high plains, low-level
warm advection near the nose of stronger surface heating and deeper
boundary-layer mixing may provide the focus for the initiation of
strongest convective development. guidance suggests that this could
occur anywhere from north central kansas through the lower missouri
valley, before growing upscale and propagating south-southeastward
through saturday night.
it is possible that this will occur in the presence of initially
modest deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. some strengthening of
flow is possible across the region in association with the approach
of a digging short wave, but much of the strengthening evident in
the various model output is probably related to the
convection/convective feedback. given the magnitude of the
potential instability, the evolution of strong descending rear
inflow with the evolving convection appears possible, which may be
accompanied by the risk for widespread severe wind gusts.
..kerr.. 06/11/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z