spc ac 120700
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0200 am cdt tue may 12 2026
valid 141200z - 151200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
north-central oklahoma...central kansas and far southern nebraska...
...summary...
thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
on thursday from parts of north-central oklahoma into central kansas
and far southern nebraska.
...north-central oklahoma/central kansas/far southern nebraska...
at mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the ozarks
and mid to upper mississippi valley on thursday, as a shortwave
trough passes through the great plains. ahead of the trough over the
southern and central plains, low-level moisture advection will take
place. surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 60s f
over much of oklahoma northward into central and northern kansas.
along this corridor, moderate instability is expected to develop by
afternoon with mlcape peaking in the 1500 to 2500 j/kg range. in
addition to the instability, forecast soundings have a capping
inversion in the 850 and 700 mb layer. in the early evening,
large-scale ascent will move across the central plains, helping to
weaken the cap for a few hours. if convective initiation can take
place, an isolated severe storm would be possible. 0-6 km shear in
the 30 to 40 knot range along with steep mid-level lapse rates could
be enough for hail and isolated severe wind gusts.
..broyles.. 05/12/2026
click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product
note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z