spc ac 090720
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0220 am cdt mon mar 09 2026
valid 111200z - 121200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the arklatex
and lower mississippi valley northeast through the ohio valley...
...summary...
isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on wednesday
from the arklatex and lower mississippi valley northeastward through
the ohio valley vicinity.
...east texas northeast to the ohio valley vicinity...
a split-flow regime will continue into wednesday, with upper
troughing over the central u.s. remaining bifurcated through much of
the period. in the southern branch, a closed low/upper shortwave
trough will migrate from tx to the lower ms valley. meanwhile, the
northern stream upper trough over the northern plains/upper midwest
will develop east across the upper great lakes/midwest. ahead of
these features, strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will extend
from east tx into the mid-atlantic/new england. at the surface, a
cold front will extend southwest from a surface low over southern
lower mi into western ok. this front will advance southeast through
the period, becoming oriented from the mid-atlantic coast to the
central gulf coast by thursday morning.
strong warm advection ahead of the front will transport gulf
moisture as far north as the mid-atlantic and southern new england.
ongoing convection is expected ahead of the front across portions of
the arklatex into the midwest. this, along with the warm advection
regime resulting in widespread cloudiness, lends to uncertainty in
how the downstream airmass will destabilize, especially with
northeast extent into parts of the ohio valley vicinity. somewhat
stronger destabilization is likely across the lower ms valley where
richer gulf moisture will reside. strong vertical wind profiles will
support damaging wind potential with even modest instability. linear
convection is the most likely storm mode given deep-layer flow
parallel to the surface boundary and strong large-scale ascent
overspreading the boundary. if discrete cells can form, some tornado
potential will exist closer to a deepening surface cyclone in the
vicinity of the upper ohio valley, and perhaps near a secondary
surface low over the lower ms valley, though this scenario remains
highly uncertain.
..leitman.. 03/09/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z