spc ac 181934
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0234 pm cdt sat jul 18 2026
valid 201200z - 211200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the upper midwest and great lakes...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the upper
midwest and great lakes vicinity on monday. swaths of damaging winds
will be the most likely hazard, with isolated large hail as well.
isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the
carolinas.
...from lake superior to iowa...
a strong shortwave trough will move southeastward across the
northern plains and upper ms valley on monday, with 50-60 kt 500 mb
winds across mn/ia/wi enhancing deep-layer shear. early day storms
may occur within the warm advection regime, with at least some
threat of severe wind or hail. this activity may weaken during the
day and give way to diurnal destabilization, with areas of strong
instability developing. notably, mid to high level winds will be
quite strong, with highly elongated hodographs favoring both
supercells and severe bows. corridors of significant wind will be
possible, with some models indicating a bimodal distribution
(northern wi, and ia). however, the environment across the entire
area ahead of cold front will conditionally support severe storms.
despite some uncertainties, the synoptically evident upper wave and
ample instability support an upgrade to enhanced risk.
...north carolina...
a weak surface low will develop over nc with strong daytime heating
beneath modest northwest flow aloft. mid 70s f dewpoints will
contribute to mlcape over 2000 j/kg, with clusters of storms
developing during the afternoon. multicellular clusters appear
likely, moving generally eastward with potential for locally
damaging outflow winds.
..jewell.. 07/18/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z