spc ac 221930
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 pm cdt mon jun 22 2026
valid 241200z - 251200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the central and southern high plains...
...summary...
widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central high
plains on wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail. more
isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the upper
midwest.
...synopsis...
a short-wave trough is forecast to move from the upper ms valley
into the upper great lakes ahead of a sheared vorticity maximum
translating from the northern rockies into the northern and central
plains. those features will be associated with a belt of enhanced
mid-level flow extending from the northern and central high plains
into the great lakes. at the surface, an area of low pressure is
forecast to weaken over the upper midwest, along a cold front
advancing through that area. the western extension of that boundary
will become increasingly less defined with southwestward extent into
the central and southern plains.
...central and southern high plains to the lower mississippi
valley...
as was the case for the day 2 (tuesday and tuesday night) forecast
period, there is considerable spread in 12z model guidance in the
location of any ongoing mcs(s) at 12z wednesday. the location of
those features will dictate the specific location of any more
concentrated damaging-wind risk later wednesday, especially from the
ozark plateau into lower ms valley. there is higher confidence in
widely scattered afternoon storm development across the central and
perhaps southern high plains within a low-level, upslope regime. the
combination of moderate instability and 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear
will support supercells capable of large to very large hail as the
primary hazard.
there is some model signal that the afternoon high plains storms
will grow upscale into an mcs across lower elevations of the central
plains wednesday night with an associated damaging-wind risk.
confidence in that scenario is currently too low to extend the 15%
probability contour farther east at this time.
...upper midwest...
lingering clouds associated with early-day storms may limit air mass
destabilization into afternoon. however, where cloud breaks can
occur, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft and modest
boundary-layer moisture content will support moderate afternoon
instability. widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal
boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting
some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts.
..mead.. 06/22/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z