spc ac 231930
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 pm cdt thu apr 23 2026
valid 251200z - 261200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms from
south-central kansas into central/eastern oklahoma and far northwest
arkansas...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms will likely develop across portions of oklahoma
and kansas during the late afternoon and evening. these storms will
pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of
tornadoes. isolated severe thunderstorms may also develop across
portions of texas.
...synopsis...
increasingly diffluent southwest flow will overspread parts of the
southern and central plains on saturday, as the midlevel pattern
responds to a strong shortwave trough/vorticity maximum moving into
the southwest. this will induce strong southerly winds across the
plains, helping to draw an outflow-influenced frontal boundary
northward. this boundary is currently forecast to be oriented from
northwest to southeast across portions of oklahoma by late saturday.
...parts of ks/ok/tx into the arklatex and lower ms valley...
no changes have been made to the enhanced risk. rich moisture, steep
midlevel lapse rates, and diurnal heating will result in strong
destabilization across parts of the southern plains, with at least
moderate destabilization into parts of ks. large-scale ascent will
be subtle at best during the day, but isolated storm development
will be possible by late afternoon in the vicinity of the diffuse
warm front extending from eastern ok into southern ks and vicinity.
favorable deep-layer shear combined with the moderate to strong
buoyancy will favor initial supercell development, with a threat of
very large hail and potentially a couple tornadoes (especially near
the remnant boundary).
some upscale growth will be possible into the evening, with
potential for an organized cluster or mcs to move southeastward
along the instability gradient towards parts of the arklatex, and
potentially the lower ms valley, before weakening. this evolution
could be accompanied by an increasing damaging-wind threat, along
with isolated hail and/or tornado potential with any embedded
supercells.
farther south, a conditionally favorable environment will be in
place during the afternoon along/east of the effective dryline, from
southwest ok into tx. despite the lack of notable large-scale
ascent, isolated storms may develop due to weakening cinh and
heating to convective temperatures. any storms that can mature
within this environment could evolve into supercells with large to
very large hail potential. the marginal risk has been expanded
southwestward across tx, where some global and extended cam guidance
shows a signal for sustained development during the late afternoon.
..dean.. 04/23/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z