spc ac 031931
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0231 pm cdt sun may 03 2026
valid 051200z - 061200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for southeast
oklahoma...northeast texas...central/northern arkansas...
...summary...
isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern oklahoma and
northeast texas into the mid-south.
...synopsis...
broad troughing within northern parts of the conus will begin to
phase with the southwestern trough on tuesday. a strong mid-level
jet will extend from the southwest into the lower great
lakes/northeast. at the surface, a low pressure system initially in
eastern oklahoma will lose definition through the period. a cold
front will extend from the upper ohio valley into the mid-south and
southern oklahoma by the afternoon. a dryline will extend from the
surface low into central/southwest texas.
...southern plains/mid-south...
the surface low/triple point and the cold front will generally be
the main focus for convective development around late afternoon.
while front will have modest southward progress through the day, it
does appear that linear modes are more likely within the mid-south
region. from southeast oklahoma and western arkansas, shear vectors
will have a more favorable orientation to the surface trough/dryline
and discrete storms are possible until the front pushes farther
south. large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes would be possible
early in the convective cycle before a gradual transition to a
damaging wind threat occurs with upscale growth. the latest nam
output has come in notably cooler than other guidance on account of
more substantial cloud cover and faster front progression. a minor
southeastward shift of severe probabilities was made to account for
lesser destabilization occurring with northward extent.
along the dryline in north/central texas, storm initiation is much
less certain on account of weak large-scale ascent. should a storm
develop, large hail and severe winds gusts would be possible given
steep lapse rates and long hodographs.
..wendt.. 05/03/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z