spc ac 130829
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0229 am cst fri feb 13 2026
valid 151200z - 161200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms sunday across
parts of the eastern gulf coast vicinity...
...summary...
strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather, may continue into the day sunday across parts of
the eastern gulf coast region.
...discussion...
within the prevailing split flow across the pacific, a prominent
blocking ridge centered over the mid-latitude pacific (near 160w)
may undergo further amplification toward the higher latitudes,
across and north-northwest of the aleutians in mid/upper levels. as
this occurs, and a vigorous downstream short wave trough digs
near/offshore of the british columbia coast, a significant mid-level
trough initially over the southern mid-latitude eastern pacific is
forecast to slowly accelerate toward the california/baja coast. it
appears that a shorter wavelength perturbation pivoting through the
base of this feature will support renewed cyclogenesis, but this is
generally forecast to occur and remain offshore of central and
southern california coastal areas through 12z monday, as an initial
occluding cyclone weakens to the north and northwest.
downstream, guidance suggests that flow across the rockies into the
western atlantic may trend more zonal, with short wave developments
within the converging branches of westerlies remaining out of phase.
in the southern branch, mid-level ridging is forecast to broaden
eastward across the southern rockies through lower mississippi
valley, in the wake of mid-level short wave troughing progressing
into and across much of the southern atlantic seaboard by late
sunday night.
spread within the latest model output appears to be decreasing
concerning this troughing. a mid-level cyclonic circulation,
associated with a weakening surface cyclone, may progress to the lee
of the southern appalachians before weakening, as trailing short
wave troughing tends to dig across the northeastern gulf and
adjacent eastern gulf coast through florida peninsula.
...eastern gulf states...
the strongest portion of the weakening jet core, particularly at
mid-levels, may remain largely offshore across the north central
through northeastern gulf through much of the day sunday. at the
same time, southerly warm sector low-level wind fields are also
forecast to weaken, as the surface cyclone begins to weaken. it
appears that this may commence during the morning, though how fast
remains uncertain due to lingering model spread.
it is possible that a fairly organized convective system may be
ongoing at 12z sunday across eastern mississippi through parts of
southeastern louisiana, though nam forecast soundings suggest that
this activity may be based above at least a shallow saturated
surface-based layer with moist adiabatic or more stable lapse rates.
this may remain the case as activity develops eastward, with
stronger convection becoming increasing focused closer to eastern
gulf coastal areas, and perhaps being maintained into northern
portions of the florida peninsula by sunday evening. however,
strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail may still be
possible with stronger storms, before convection weakens.
..kerr.. 02/13/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z