spc ac 050726
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0226 am cdt sun jul 05 2026
valid 071200z - 081200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms late tuesday
through tuesday night across parts of central and eastern south
dakota into southwestern minnesota...
...summary...
an organizing cluster of thunderstorms may pose increasing potential
to produce strong to severe wind gusts by late tuesday evening into
tuesday night across parts of the middle missouri valley toward the
upper midwest.
...discussion...
models suggest that the westerlies may become a bit less progressive
across the higher latitudes of north america during this period,
with a deep remnant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone only slowly
migrating east-northeastward across hudson bay toward the northern
quebec shores. upstream, a notable trough is forecast to only
slowly pivot inland of the british columbia coast.
in advance of the trailing perturbation, a low-amplitude trough
within modest zonal westerlies across the northern tier of the u.s.
is forecast to progress east of the northern rockies, and flatten
initial mid-level ridging across the middle missouri valley by late
tuesday night.
otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along
an axis from the subtropical eastern pacific through the central and
southern great plains, while also developing northwestward from the
subtropical western atlantic into parts of the southeast. a remnant
trough or shear axis will likely linger in between, near/west
through southwest of the southern appalachians.
...parts of the middle missouri valley into upper midwest...
latest guidance suggests that potential for stronger convective
development may still remain largely influenced by sub-synoptic
developments with rather low predictability at this time frame.
however, there appears a consistent enough developing convective
signal among the various model output to lead to some confidence in
the evolution of an organized convective system across the mid
missouri valley vicinity by late tuesday night.
it appears that stronger pre-frontal daytime heating may focus
moderate to strong destabilization in a corridor roughly across
south central south dakota toward southwestern minnesota by late
tuesday afternoon. beneath steep lapse rates, surface dew point
increases to around 70f may support mixed-layer cape on the order of
2000-3000+ j/kg.
as remnant warm elevated mixed-layer air is suppressed further
southward, the initiation of storms capable of producing severe
hail and wind seems probable by early tuesday evening. it is
possible that the most substantive upscale growth, intensification
and organization awaits forcing associated with a nocturnal
strengthening low-level jet toward late evening. but, as this
occurs, the environment appears potentially conducive to the
development of a swath of damaging winds as it propagates
east-southeastward tuesday night.
..kerr.. 07/05/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z