spc ac 170626
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0126 am cdt fri jul 17 2026
valid 191200z - 201200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
sc/nc into southeast va...
...summary...
isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose
a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern
appalachians to the coastal carolinas/southeast virginia vicinity on
sunday.
...southern appalachians to coastal carolinas/southeast virginia...
upper troughing will persist across the eastern u.s. on sunday. a
couple of embedded vorticity maxima within the base of the trough
will move across the southern appalachians/southern mid-atlantic
region through early evening. deep layer westerly flow will remain
modest, but a very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in
place. large instability coupled with pw values near 2 inches will
support isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. a
corridor of relative greater risk may develop from southeast va into
eastern nc near a stalled frontal boundary and where vertical shear
may be modestly stronger (25 kt effective shear).
...eastern nd into northern mn...
northwesterly flow aloft will strengthen on sunday/sunday night as
upper ridging flattens a bit as an upper shortwave trough emerges
over the canadian prairies. vertically veering wind profiles will
foster 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes and a few organized cells
could develop. some potential for capping could limit storm
coverage, but any storm that develops could be a higher-based
supercell capable of severe hail and strong gusts.
..leitman.. 07/17/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z