spc ac 030646
day 3 convective outlook corr 1
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0146 am cdt sun may 03 2026
valid 051200z - 061200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
eastern oklahoma...northeast texas...and arkansas...
corrected for summary
...summary...
isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern oklahoma and
northeast texas into the mid-south.
...synopsis...
deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase across the southern
plains to the ohio valley and northeast as the upper trough over the
upper midwest and northern/central plains and an upper trough over
the southwest begin to phase. at the surface, a cold front is
forecast to extend from southern lower mi to northern ok tuesday
morning. this boundary will develop slowly southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from ny to the mid-south to north-central
tx by wednesday morning. during the afternoon, a dryline will be
oriented across central tx. ahead of the surface front and east of
the dryline, increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s
f dewpoints across the sabine valley into ar. the surface front and
dryline will serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorm
development during the afternoon/evening.
...ok/tx to the mid-south...
convective development is likely near the surface triple point and
cold front by 00z as forcing for ascent impinges on the moist and
moderately unstable airmass in the eastern ok/ar vicinity.
thunderstorm coverage will likely increase through the evening as a
modest low-level jet develops. any discrete convection that develops
will pose a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.
however, convection may become linear along the surface front rather
quickly, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.
severe potential along the dryline across parts of ok/tx is more
uncertain/conditional. capping and nebulous large-scale ascent
(especially with southwest extent across tx) may suppress
convection. however, if a storm can develop within the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, large hail will be
possible.
..leitman.. 05/03/2026
click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product
note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z