spc ac 010820
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0220 am cst sun mar 01 2026
valid 031200z - 041200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from tuesday
into tuesday night from parts of the southern and central plains
eastward into the mid mississippi valley. isolated storms may also
develop in south florida.
...southern and central plains/mid mississippi valley...
at mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the ozarks
on tuesday, as flow becomes southwesterly over the south-central
u.s. further west, an upper-level trough will move through the four
corners region. at the surface, a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the 50s and 60s f will advect northward across the
southern plains and arklatex. a cold front will move southeastward
into the central plains. to the south of the front, an axis of
instability is forecast to develop in the afternoon from northwest
texas into southeast kansas and the northern ozarks. the airmass is
expected to be capped across much of texas and oklahoma, although an
elevated storm or two will be possible tuesday night. the greatest
chance for storms will be from eastern kansas into the northern
ozarks, where convective development will be aided by lift
associated with the exit region of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet.
considerable variance exists among the model solutions concerning
instability, suggesting that any severe threat will be highly
conditional. if moisture return ends up being greater than is
currently forecast, a marginal severe threat may need to be added in
later outlooks.
..broyles.. 03/01/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z