spc ac 110728
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0228 am cdt sat jul 11 2026
valid 131200z - 141200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from northern
florida into much of south carolina...
...summary...
a few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from northern florida
into much of south carolina.
... synopsis ...
the persistent conus-wide mid-level ridge centered across the
north-central us will begin to flatten and elongate on monday as a
strong mid-level trough moves across central canada. as the
mid-level ridge flattens/elongates it will place much of the
southern us in easterly mid-level flow. this easterly mid-level flow
will cause a weak mid-level trough across the tennessee valley to
retrograde. this high-over-low pattern will feature a belt of
enhanced easterlies stretching from the lower great lakes west into
the central plains.
at the surface, a weak surface low over the southern appalachians
will redevelop westward toward alabama during the afternoon. the
combination of this surface low with a surface ridge centered across
the mid-mississippi valley will result in northerly low-level flow
across much of the ohio and tennessee valleys and western parts of
the southeast.
... northern florida into much of south carolina ...
as the surface low redevelops across alabama on monday, this area
will experience southwesterly surface flow that will maintain a
warm, moist airmass. residual cooler mid-level temperatures (as
compared to surrounding areas) associated with the weak mid-level
trough and strong diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result
in afternoon thunderstorms. deep-layer shear remains weak across the
area which should limit overall thunderstorm organization, favoring
instead single cells and a few multicell clusters. a few heavy,
water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of producing sporadic wind
damage.
..marsh.. 07/11/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z