spc ac 160811
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0211 am cst mon feb 16 2026
valid 181200z - 191200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
the risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the u.s.
wednesday through wednesday night, with probabilities for
thunderstorm development generally low.
...discussion...
an initial mid-level perturbation and associated surface troughing
pivoting through the upper midwest and adjacent great lakes region
by the beginning of this period are forecast to undergo substantive
weakening wednesday through wednesday night. it is possible that a
residual area of lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent, coupled
with limited moisture return, may maintain sufficient strength to
support continuing convective development capable of producing
lightning while spreading through the lower great lakes vicinity
into the day wednesday. however, this potential is not readily
evident in available nam forecast soundings, and thunderstorm
probabilities are probably near the minimum 10 percent threshold for
a categorical thunder area.
upstream, substantive spread is evident in the latest model output
concerning short wave developments within amplified mid/upper
troughing near the pacific coast. it does appear that one emerging
perturbation may support notable cyclogenesis from the lee of the
colorado rockies into the central great plains late wednesday
through wednesday night. however, modest inland moisture return off
a gradually modifying gulf boundary layer is generally forecast to
be focused east of the lower mississippi valley, into the southeast,
within a broad belt of south to southwesterly flow around low-level
ridging centered over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of
the western atlantic.
..kerr.. 02/16/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z