spc ac 221930
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 pm cdt wed apr 22 2026
valid 241200z - 251200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the
southern plains into the lower mississippi valley...
...summary...
a few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
southern plains into the lower mississippi valley on friday. large
hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.
...southern plains into the lower ms valley...
storms may be ongoing at the start of the period friday morning from
parts of ok into ar/mo, and possibly into the lower oh valley. while
a general weakening trend is expected during the morning, the
strongest early-day storms could pose a threat of isolated hail and
localized strong/damaging gusts.
the primary severe threat is expected to develop from the afternoon
into the evening, along the primary outflow/cold front and any other
residual boundaries left over from the morning convection. the
strongest heating/destabilization is expected from parts of tx into
southeast ok, where mlcape of 2000-3000 may develop, with moderate
instability expected as far east as the lower ms/oh valleys.
at this time, the greatest diurnal storm coverage is expected from
eastern ok/northeast tx into ar, where a weak midlevel shortwave
trough and potential mcv may overlap moderate to strong buoyancy.
effective shear will be relatively modest (generally 30-35 kt), but
sufficient to support some storm organization. initial diurnal
development in this region could pose a threat for hail and locally
damaging wind. low-level flow/shear will generally remain weak, but
storm/boundary interactions could also support a low tornado threat.
with time, consolidating outflows could support modest upscale
growth and a potential increase in damaging-wind potential into the
early evening as storms spread east-southeastward.
storm coverage may remain quite isolated across western portions of
the level 2/slight risk area, due to weak large-scale ascent, but
isolated development will be possible as cinh weakens. the strongly
unstable and sufficiently sheared environment will conditionally
favor a severe threat across parts of southern ok and north tx, if
storms can be sustained.
..dean.. 04/22/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z