spc ac 101930
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 pm cdt sun may 10 2026
valid 121200z - 131200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from southeast
kansas northeast into southern wisconsin...
...summary...
isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on tuesday from parts of southeast kansas northeast into
southern wisconsin.
... overview ...
the midlevel pattern will amplify further on tuesday as a midlevel
low and associated trough move southeast over the upper great lakes
in response to a building ridge upstream. as the midlevel flow
amplifies, a jet streak will redevelop on the upshear side of the
trough, resulting in strong vertical shear across the central us.
at the surface, a low will quickly drop southeast out of canada,
across wisconsin, into lower michigan. to the west/southwest of this
low, a cold front will quickly push south and east.
... southeast kansas northeast into southern wisconsin ...
ahead of the aforementioned surface cold front, southerly winds on
the west side of a surface anticyclone will support northward
moisture transport across the central us. the 20260510/12z guidance
suite shows considerable variance in the depth and quality of the
moisture return and in turn, convective coverage.
low level convergence along the front will be greatest the closest
to the surface low. despite surface dewpoints in the upper-40fs to
perhaps low-50fs, a couple of thunderstorms are likely to develop
across southern wisconsin. convergence along the front should
decrease with southwest extent with an increasing eml/cap in the
same direction. thus, despite better low level moisture, and in turn
buoyancy, across the central plains, confidence in thunderstorm
development is low. that said, the 20260510/12z hi-res nam shows
thunderstorm development all along the front from southeast kansas
into wisconsin. the overall kinematic environment will be favorable
for at least a few severe wind reports where ever thunderstorms
develop, and thus the level 1/marginal risk has been expanded to
incorporate this potential.
... central and south florida ...
a post frontal airmass should be in place across the area on
tuesday, with northerly surface winds advecting in a slightly drier
airmass. despite that, a myriad of potential surface boundaries
(including both gulf and atlantic sea breezes) will be around during
the afternoon to serve as potential thunderstorm initiation
mechanisms. although effective layer shear will be around 30 to
perhaps 40 knots, the degree of instability may limit the overall
wind threat.
... interior pacific northwest ...
a few thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon and
overnight across portions of oregon and washington within a belt of
strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching midlevel trough to the
west and the building ridge to the east. although low level moisture
should remain scant, sufficient midlevel moisture should combine
with large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates to support a few
thunderstorms. fast storm motions and steep low-to-midlevel lapse
rates may support a few severe thunderstorm wind gusts. however, the
nature of this threat is still too low to warrant unconditional
severe probabilities.
..marsh.. 05/10/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z