spc ac 300728
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0228 am cdt thu apr 30 2026
valid 021200z - 031200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms saturday across
parts of northern florida and adjacent southern georgia....
...summary...
strong storms may impact parts of northern florida and southern
georgia saturday with potential for some of this activity to become
severe.
...discussion...
within amplified ridging across the mid-latitude eastern pacific by
the outset of the period, models indicate that a mid-level high may
begin to form over the northeastern pacific, roughly near 50n/140w,
while an evolving low to its south digs offshore of the california
coast. downstream flow is forecast to remain broadly confluent
across and east of the rockies, with one notable short wave
perturbation pivoting east of the ozark plateau through the mid
atlantic coast by 12z sunday. this likely will be preceded by a
shearing impulse, emerging from the subtropical eastern pacific
today, across the eastern gulf coast states through southern mid
atlantic by late saturday afternoon.
in lower-levels, models indicate that these developments will be
accompanied significant surface cyclogenesis offshore of the
atlantic seaboard. it remains a bit unclear whether this will
initiate from a developing frontal wave initially offshore of the
carolina coast, before migrating northeastward, or in association
with continuing development of a wave initially forming friday
near/offshore of the lower to middle texas coast.
regardless, in association with the wave approaching from the gulf,
a corridor of pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization appears
possible across the florida big bend vicinity through southern
georgia/northern florida atlantic coastal areas by mid to late
saturday afternoon. coinciding with strengthening southwesterly to
westerly wind fields, including 30-70+ kts in the 850-500 mb layer,
if this occurs, it is possible that the environment could become
conducive to severe thunderstorm development. this may include
evolving supercell structures, and perhaps a small organizing
convective system.
..kerr.. 04/30/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z