spc ac 081926
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0226 pm cdt fri may 08 2026
valid 101200z - 111200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the southern plains into the arklatex and lower mississippi
valley...
...summary...
thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe/damaging
winds appear likely sunday afternoon and evening from parts of texas
into the ark-la-tex and lower mississippi valley.
...southern plains into the arklatex/lower mississippi valley...
a mid-level shortwave trough will continue advancing southeastward
sunday from the central plains into the southern plains and lower ms
valley. while west-northwesterly mid-level flow is not forecast to
be overly strong with this feature (around 30-45 kt), there should
be sufficient effective bulk shear to support organized convection.
at the surface, a cold front is expected to shift southeastward
across these regions through the day, with a seasonably moist
low-level airmass in place ahead of it. daytime heating of this
airmass and the presence of at least modestly steepened mid-level
lapse rates (particularly across tx) should support the development
of moderate to strong instability along/ahead of the front by early
sunday afternoon.
thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of central/eastern ok at
the start of the period, with an isolated severe threat possible.
current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to
develop along much of the length of the cold front from west tx
northeastward into southeast ok and the arklatex by mid afternoon as
large-scale ascent attendant to the mid-level shortwave trough
overspreads the destabilizing warm sector. while somewhat stronger
mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear may tend to remain
mostly displaced to the north of the cold front, initial multicell
clusters and embedded supercells will likely pose a threat for both
large hail and severe/damaging winds. with time, a consolidation
into one or more bowing clusters should occur, with a greater risk
for damaging winds, particularly across parts of central into
northeast tx. the slight risk has been expanded to account for where
confidence is greatest in scattered to potentially numerous
severe/damaging winds being realized with convection sunday
afternoon and evening.
farther east into the lower ms valley/southeast, confidence in
organized severe convection remains somewhat lower, mainly due to
uncertainty regarding sufficient instability/destabilization ahead
of the front. any cells/clusters that can form and spread
east-southeastward could pose an isolated threat for hail and
damaging winds. the marginal risk has been expanded eastward and
combined with the previously separate risk area across the gulf
coast, where isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur
along various sea breezes.
..gleason.. 05/08/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z