spc ac 121914
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0214 pm cdt thu mar 12 2026
valid 141200z - 151200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms are not expected on saturday.
...synopsis...
zonal upper-level flow over the conus early saturday will give way
to amplification of an upper trough late saturday and into sunday
over the plains. rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated as a surface low
deepens within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet and
migrates from eastern wy into the eastern plains. increasing
southerly winds will advect moisture northward into the southern
plains through the forecast period, but in the wake of the recent
frontal passage, moisture return will likely be insufficient to
overcome stout capping at the base of an expansive eml. sporadic
lightning flashes appear possible within the warm advection branch
of the intensifying cyclone, but forecast soundings show poor
agreement with regards to the availability of mucape. thunderstorms
are most probable across south florida and along the eastern fl, ga,
and sc coasts. while displaced from the strengthening low over the
plains, southerly winds will support a weak warm advection regime
within a moist, buoyant, and uncapped environment. diffuse forcing
for ascent and poor flow aloft should limit the potential for severe
thunderstorms.
..moore.. 03/12/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z