spc ac 090742
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0142 am cst tue dec 09 2025
valid 111200z - 121200z
...no thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the u.s.
thursday through thursday night.
...discussion...
downstream of an increasingly prominent, blocking high building near
and to the north of the aleutians during this period, models
indicate that strong flow will take on an increasing northwesterly
component across southern british columbia and adjacent portions of
the pacific northwest into portions of the canadian prairies and
northern u.s. great plains. it appears that a significant short
wave trough near the leading edge of this regime will begin to
reinforce broad mid-level troughing extending downstream into the
western atlantic.
while mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as
the gulf coast states into the southern mid- to subtropical
latitudes of the western atlantic, heights across the south are
forecast to begin to rise, as a prominent perturbation accelerates
rapidly east-northeast of the lower great lakes region through the
canadian maritimes.
the primary surface front, trailing an evolving cyclone across the
canadian maritimes, may stall across the southern atlantic coast
through tennessee valley, while progressing slowly southward through
the lower missouri valley and central great plains by late thursday
night, in advance of much colder air beginning to nose southward to
the lee of the canadian/northern u.s. rockies.
as a remnant preceding front becomes more diffuse across the central
through northwestern gulf basin, gulf boundary-layer modification
may gradually continue, as a weak southerly return flow begins to
develop across the texas coast. however, beneath relatively warm
and dry lower/mid-levels, it does not appears that this will
contribute to appreciable destabilization during this period.
..kerr.. 12/09/2025
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z