spc ac 101930
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 pm cdt wed jun 10 2026
valid 121200z - 131200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms friday afternoon
and evening from the allegheny mountains vicinity through much of
the northern mid atlantic and adjacent portions of western new
england...
...summary...
evolving clusters of storms may spread from the allegheny mountains,
and perhaps poconos and catskills, into northern mid atlantic coast
friday afternoon and evening, accompanied by potentially damaging
wind gusts.
...discussion...
models indicate that subtropical ridging will be maintained across
much of the southern tier of the u.s. through this period.
mid-level ridging may also build within the mid-latitudes, offshore
of the pacific coast, but a largely zonal regime appears likely to
be maintained from the northern rockies through the lower great
lakes and northern mid atlantic.
while a secondary surface frontal low, shifting northeast of the
great lakes region by 12z friday, turns north/northwestward and
occludes across the hudson bay vicinity by friday night, the
associated mid-level cyclone may only slowly shift eastward to the
south-southwest of hudson bay. an increasingly convectively
augmented trailing surface cold front appears likely to advance
southeast of the lower great lakes through much of the mid atlantic
by 12z saturday.
...allegheny mountains into western new england/mid atlantic...
models suggest that westerly deep-layer mean wind fields are likely
to remain rather modest through this period, and forcing for ascent
associated with one or two short wave perturbations pivoting around
the periphery of the mid-level low may be glancing with respect to
the evolving surface warm sector. however, guidance generally
suggests that a seasonably moist pre-frontal boundary-layer (surface
dew points near 70f) across the allegheny plateau/mountains into the
adirondacks and champlain/hudson valley vicinity may become
characterized by sizable cape on the order of 2000+ j/kg with
insolation. preceding at least weak mid-level height falls, this
environment is expected to become supportive increasing vigorous
thunderstorm through early/mid friday afternoon.
strengthening surface cold pools, perhaps aided by
lower/mid-tropospheric flow on the order of 20-30+ kt, may
contribute to modestly organizing clusters with potential to produce
damaging wind gusts while propagating east of the higher terrain,
toward the northern mid atlantic coast, through early friday
evening.
..kerr.. 06/10/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z