spc ac 011931
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0231 pm cdt wed jul 01 2026
valid 031200z - 041200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the northern and central plains into midwest...
...summary...
isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the
northern/central plains into the midwest, tennessee valley, and
mid-atlantic on friday.
...synopsis...
one or multiple mid-level disturbances over the northern and central
high plains friday morning are forecast to progress into the upper
midwest by friday night. meanwhile, a downstream belt of west to
west-northwest flow will prevail in the mid levels from the great
lakes into northeast. at the surface, a lee cyclone and attending
trough will exist over the northern high plains with a secondary low
pressure center over the central plains. an outflow-modulated warm
or stationary front is expected to extend from the northern plains
low into the upper midwest. elsewhere, there is some model signal
for the development of a surface trough from southern new england
into the delmarva friday afternoon.
...northern and central plains into the midwest and upper great
lakes...
the potential for early-day storms introduces forecast uncertainty
in subsequent afternoon/evening severe weather potential due to the
location of relevant surface boundaries and extent of convective
overturning. however, by afternoon, the models indicate the
development of a broad corridor of moderate to strong instability
across the northern and central plains into the southern great lakes
and oh valley. diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development is most
probable from the vicinity of the northern plains lee cyclone and
trough east along the outflow-modulated front within a zone of
forcing for ascent preceding the disturbances mentioned in the
synopsis. the instability combined with modestly strong deep-layer
shear will be supportive of organized storm modes capable of large
to very large hail and damaging winds with the potential for
significant gusts friday afternoon into night.
...mid-atlantic...
increasing height falls are forecast friday afternoon into night
downstream from a more prominent short-wave trough progressing into
eastern ontario and southwest quebec. the various 12z models offer
different scenarios in the preferred location of diurnally enhanced
storms with the best overlap extending from portions of southern ny
and northern pa to the mid-atlantic coast. the colocation of
moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear in that area may
support some storm organization with the primary hazards being
damaging winds and large hail.
a similar environment is forecast across the region on saturday,
july 4th, potentially warranting the inclusion of higher severe
weather probabilities.
...ohio and tennessee valleys...
a number of models indicate the potential for one or multiple mcss
to progress through the region during the forecast period. vertical
shear is expected to be relatively weak. however, the presence of
moderate to strong instability may promote periods of cold-pool
organization with a related damaging wind threat.
..mead.. 07/01/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z