spc ac 140722
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0222 am cdt tue apr 14 2026
valid 161200z - 171200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the ohio
valley...
...summary...
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on thursday
across portions of the ohio valley.
...lower ohio valley/midwest vicinity...
an upper shortwave trough will move from the ms valley to the
appalachians on thursday. moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow
will overspread the mo bootheel toward lake erie ahead of this
feature. at the surface, a corridor of upper 50s to low 60s f
dewpoints will be in place ahead of a surface front. some ongoing
convection and cloudiness early in the day will limit stronger
destabilization, but at least weak mlcape around 500-1000 j/kg is
forecast. while low-level flow will be weak, around 30-40 kt
west/southwesterly flow between 850-700 mb and 40+ kt effective
shear magnitudes will aid in some storm organization. a mix of
clusters and line segments will bring a risk of locally strong gusts
where stronger heating results in steepened low-level lapse rates.
...southern plains vicinity...
a conditionally favorable supercell environment will be in place
across the southern plains on thursday ahead of a dryline. a weak
shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region early in the
day, departing by early afternoon. height rises/shortwave ridging is
then forecast to build across the area. at this time, thunderstorm
development is not forecast as weak capping in the absence of
large-scale ascent should be maintained. however, trends will be
monitored given the otherwise very favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment. otherwise, isolated elevated convection is
possible late in the period in a warm advection regime across north
tx into southern ok.
..leitman.. 04/14/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z