spc ac 240721
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0221 am cdt wed jun 24 2026
valid 261200z - 271200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of the high plains and southern kansas and northern oklahoma into
the ozarks....
...summary...
isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible across the high plains and across southern kansas
and northern oklahoma into southern missouri and northern arkansas
on friday.
...synopsis...
a strong mid-level shortwave trough will move from the eastern
pacific into the northwest conus on friday with the trough
continuing to deepen through the period. an elongated mid-level jet
streak will stretch from the california coast to the northern plains
by 12z saturday. surface low pressure will exist across the
inter-mountain west as this trough amplifies and will eventually
consolidate as a lee cyclone across the northern plains by the end
of the period.
...high plains...
moderate to strong instability is forecast across the high plains on
friday as a dryline develops along the lee trough. ridging should
limit overall convective coverage, but with 30 to 35 knots of
mid-level flow, isolated supercells are possible with a threat for
large hail and severe wind gusts.
...southern kansas and northern oklahoma into the ozarks...
strong instability is forecast along a frontal boundary that will
exist from the ok/ks border into southern missouri where dewpoints
will be in the low to mid 70s. upper-level forcing will be weak,
with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights. therefore, the
strong instability and forecast soundings showing an uncapped
airmass near a frontal zone will support the potential for strong to
severe storms friday afternoon/evening. in addition, the low-level
jet is forecast to strengthen friday evening which may provide
additional support for storm development, even if it doesn't occur
during daytime heating.
..bentley.. 06/24/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z