spc ac 100730
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 am cdt sun may 10 2026
valid 121200z - 131200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the central plains and mid mississippi valley...
...summary...
isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on tuesday from parts of southeast kansas into far western
illinois.
...southern and central plains/mid mississippi valley/midwest...
a mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward across the
north-central u.s. on tuesday, as an associated cold front advances
southeastward into the central plains and mid mississippi valley.
ahead of the front, moisture will be somewhat limited with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s f. as surface, temperatures warm
during the day, instability is expected to develop ahead of the
front. forecasts suggest the strongest instability will be in
southeast kansas and western missouri, where mlcape could reach the
1000 to 1500 j/kg range, if the more aggressive model solutions pan
out. increasing low-level convergence near the front tuesday
afternoon will likely result in widely-spaced convective initiation.
storms are expected to move east-southeastward toward the
instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. at
this time, there are a wide range of model solutions concerning
instability. in addition, some models have a warm layer at 700 mb
near the front, which would limit severe potential. however, if an
axis of moderate instability can develop ahead of the front, and
some storms can become surface-based, then a potential will exist
for isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
..broyles.. 05/10/2026
click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product
note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z