spc ac 111932
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0232 pm cdt sat jul 11 2026
valid 131200z - 141200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms portions of
south carolina into central georgia and far north florida...
...summary...
a few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from south carolina
into central georgia and far north florida on monday.
...southeast...
a weak, cut-off upper low will likely be present in the vicinity of
the tennessee valley/southern appalachians. this may help to
organize storms along a stalled surface boundary within ga/sc. a
moist airmass will promote a few stronger storms capable of wind
damage. the overall threat does appear marginal as lapse rates will
be less steep than previous days.
...arizona...
with at least 50s f dewpoints remaining within parts of arizona,
thunderstorm activity can again be expected during the afternoon.
with mid-level flow being slightly more out of the southwest and
weakening with time, it is not certain how strong storms will become
and how many will move into the lower deserts. even so, strong gusts
will be possible given the inverted-v thermodynamic profiles.
...southwest montana...
models show a convective signal during the late afternoon within the
higher terrain of southwest montana. due to cloud cover, buoyancy
will not likely be very strong. stronger flow aloft would allow for
isolated, organized storms should heating be greater than forecast.
..wendt.. 07/11/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z