spc ac 210729
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0229 am cdt thu may 21 2026
valid 231200z - 241200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from the
central/southern plains into the lower mississippi valley and
southeastern us. a few stronger storms may be possible across the
southern plains, particularly near the texas and oklahoma
panhandles.
...synopsis...
a weak impulse will rotate across the central plains on d3/saturday
as a surface low moves northward across the ohio valley. a trailing
cold front will extend from the surface low back into the southern
plains. widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
from the central/southern plains into the lower mississippi valley
and across the southeast. a few stronger storms may be possible
across the texas/oklahoma panhandles.
...tx/ok panhandles...
weak forcing for ascent and easterly upslope flow across the caprock
will produce scattered thunderstorm activity saturday afternoon.
forecast soundings suggest a plume of steep to low mid-level lapse
rates will still reside across the ok/tx panhandles with mid 50s to
60s dew points and moderate instability by the afternoon. shear
profiles will be fairly weak, with deep layer shear around 25 kts. a
few stronger storms may produce gusty winds and hail. overall, weak
deep layer shear for organization may limit the severe threat.
..thornton.. 05/21/2026
click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product
note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z