spc ac 081927
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0127 pm cst thu jan 08 2026
valid 101200z - 111200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the
southeast into parts of the carolinas and southern virginia...
...summary...
isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on saturday from the
southeast into parts of the carolinas and southern virginia.
...southeast into the carolinas and virginia...
within a swath of broad/strong midlevel southwesterly flow across
the eastern half of the conus, a robust midlevel jet will advance
northeastward from the lower oh valley into the
mid-atlantic/northeast -- while phasing with an upstream trough and
related midlevel jet. an accompanying frontal wave/weak surface
cyclone -- initially over the tn valley -- will track northeastward
along a remnant frontal zone toward the northeast in tandem with the
midlevel jet.
at the start of the period, broken bands of thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing across the central gulf coast into the southeast,
along/east of the frontal zone/surface wave. while buoyancy will be
somewhat limited (especially with northward extent toward northern
al), ample boundary-layer moisture and a focused low-level jet will
continue to promote a few strong to severe storms, with a risk of
damaging gusts and a tornado. while uncertain, there appears to be a
corridor of relatively higher severe potential from parts of
south-central al into ga, and this area continues to be monitored
for a potential upgrade.
thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward through the day, as the
midlevel jet and surface wave track northeastward. buoyancy will
become limited with northward extent, though the
northeastward-moving low-level jet and strong deep-layer shear will
continue to yield a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
with any stronger storms that spread into the carolinas and southern
va.
..weinman.. 01/08/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0830z