spc ac 160726
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0226 am cdt tue jun 16 2026
valid 181200z - 191200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from kentucky and
northern tennessee into the mid-atlantic...
...summary...
isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from
kentucky to the mid-atlantic. damaging wind gusts will be the main
hazard with this activity.
...synopsis...
a series of embedded midlevel shortwave troughs will migrate through
broad upper troughing and strong southwesterly deep-layer flow from
the great lakes to the northeast. at the surface, low pressure over
southern ontario will develop northeast along the st. lawrence
valley and a trailing cold front will extend southwest from the
lower great lakes to northern ok and the tx panhandle during the
morning. this front will sag south/southeast through the period,
becoming oriented from the mid-atlantic coast to central tx by
friday morning. a very moist airmass will reside south of the front,
particularly from the southern plains to the mid-atlantic. moderate
to strong destabilization will develop across parts of the plains
into the ohio valley, with more modest instability with northeast
extent into the mid-atlantic and northeast.
...ohio valley to mid-atlantic and northeast...
very strong west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is expected to reside
across the northeast on thursday, decreasing with southwest extent
into the ohio valley. convection may be ongoing near the surface
front and within the broad warm advection regime ahead of the
boundary thursday morning, especially across the northeast. this
will likely temper destabilization across portions of pa/ny and
points northeastward. nevertheless, intense deep-layer flow will
still support strong to severe wind gusts with convection through
early evening. richer boundary layer moisture will be in place from
tn/ky into the mid-atlantic, fostering strong destabilization.
clusters and line segments will pose a risk for mainly damaging
gusts.
...ok/tx to the mid-south...
a belt of strong instability is forecast ahead of the southward
sagging cold front thursday afternoon. this area will be further
removed from stronger mid/upper southwesterly flow. but, ample
instability, modest effective shear, and high pws supporting water
laden downdrafts will result in a marginal severe risk for damaging
winds within thunderstorm clusters/bands.
...southeast...
the remnants of a tropical disturbance is expected to migrate across
portions of the gulf coast states on thursday. a very moist and
moderately unstable airmass will be in place. the remnant low may
serve to locally enhance vertical shear, resulting in an
accompanying risk for strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or
two.
..leitman.. 06/16/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z