spc ac 220729
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0229 am cdt mon jun 22 2026
valid 241200z - 251200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the central high plains....
...summary...
scattered severe storms are likely across the central high plains on
wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail.
...synopsis...
persistent moderate to strong mid-level west-northwesterly mid-level
flow is forecast across the central high plains on wednesday. the
surface pattern will be rather nebulous with a weak surface low in
the midwest and high pressure in its wake across the plains.
...central high plains to the ozarks...
an ongoing mcs at the beginning of the period may have some severe
risk through the morning hours across oklahoma/southern kansas and
into the ozarks. expect this mcs to weaken by mid-day as the
low-level jet weakens and it outruns the stronger mid-level flow.
high pressure across the plains will result in strengthening upslope
flow across the central high plains. strong instability is forecast
from northeast new mexico to southeast wyoming beneath the moderate
to strong mid-level flow. this environment will support supercells
capable of large to very large hail. for now have kept the threat
mostly confined to the high plains where the supercell threat is
most likely. the low-level jet response across the plains is not
that strong wednesday night and thus, upscale growth into an mcs is
unclear. if a mcs becomes more likely, the slight risk would need to
be expanded eastward in later outlooks.
..bentley.. 06/22/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z