spc ac 281930
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 pm cdt tue apr 28 2026
valid 301200z - 011200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of
southwest and south-central texas...
...summary...
strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
southwest and south-central texas on thursday.
...southwest into central tx...
a mid/upper-level low initially off of the baja california coast is
forecast to eject eastward as a shortwave across northern mexico,
and approach far west texas late in the period. a belt of moderate
to strong midlevel westerlies will be maintained downstream of this
system across much of tx. easterly post-frontal low-level flow will
maintain relatively favorable moisture across southwest tx, though
somewhat weaker midlevel lapse rates (compared to previous days) may
limit mucape to the 1000-2000 j/kg range. while weaker than previous
days, this buoyancy magnitude would still be conditionally favorable
for organized convection, given the presence of moderate to strong
deep-layer shear.
details of storm coverage and evolution through the period remain
uncertain. relatively vigorous elevated convection could support
some isolated hail potential, especially if early-day storms can be
maintained through the day, or with any diurnal surface-based
development. storm coverage will likely tend to increase by thursday
night, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. while
convective mode may quickly become complex late in the period, some
threat for hail or localized severe gusts could accompany the
strongest storms. given the potential for one or more rounds of deep
convection within a relatively favorable environment, a level
1/marginal risk has been included for southwest tx and vicinity.
..dean.. 04/28/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z