spc ac 240724
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0224 am cdt sat aug 24 2019
valid 261200z - 271200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across far
northeast ok...southeast ks...and western mo...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms are possible along a cold front from the
southern plains into the upper midwest on monday.
...synopsis...
upper troughing will persist across much of the northern third of
the conus. a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs will progress
quickly through the base of this trough, helping to strengthen
mid-level westerly/northwesterly flow and gradually progress the
trough eastward.
surface pattern early monday morning will likely feature a cold
front extending from a low over eastern manitoba south-southwestward
across the plains to another low over the ok panhandle. this front
is expected to progress eastward/southeastward throughout the day,
likely moving through much of the upper/mid ms valley, ozark
plateau, and ok by tuesday morning.
...southern plains northeastward into the upper ms valley...
a warm, moist, and buoyant air mass is expected ahead of the
aforementioned front. additionally, strengthening mid-level flow
will contribute to moderate vertical shear. as thunderstorms develop
along the front, the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic
environment supports the potential for organized storms capable of
large hail and strong wind gusts.
the strongest instability is expected from north-central/northeast
ok northeastward across southeast ks into western mo. in this area,
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are expected beneath mid-level lapse
rates in excess of 7 degrees c per km, contributing to mlcape in
excess of 3000 j/kg. a higher probability for severe thunderstorms
exists over this area.
..mosier.. 08/24/2019
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z