spc ac 160736
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0236 am cdt sat may 16 2026
valid 181200z - 191200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms portions of the
southern/central plains into the midwest...
...summary...
numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the great lakes into the
central/southern plains. supercells capable of all hazards
(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be
possible across central kansas into southeastern nebraska.
...synopsis...
on monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before
ejecting across the central plains, with strong southwesterly flow
aloft overspreading the region. as a result, a strong surface low
will development across western kansas. a surface cold front will
extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper
midwest. a dryline will extend southward across portions of western
kansas into western oklahoma. numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along
the dryline monday afternoon and evening from nebraska into central
kansas.
...central kansas into southeastern nebraska...
a volatile environment is expected to be in place ahead of the
dryline across central kansas monday afternoon, with moderate to
strong instability, strong deep layer shear, and steep low to
mid-level lapse rates. this will favor supercells as the primary
mode with developing thunderstorms along the dryline in the
afternoon, with potential for large to very large hail (some 2-4
inch). through the afternoon and evening, a 40-50 kt southerly low
level jet will shift into central kansas with large clockwise
enhancement of low-level hodographs. should the mode be able to
remain discrete supercells, strong to intense tornadoes will be
possible across central kansas into southeastern nebraska. this in
combination with potential for very large hail may warrant higher
probabilities as mesoscale details become clearer.
as the front shifts southward through time, upscale growth will be
favored with increasing probabilities for damaging winds.
...iowa into wisconsin and the great lakes region...
widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected further north
along the front into iowa/wisconsin and north into the great lakes
region. early day convection may be ongoing at the start of the
period within these regions, which may limit how much
destabilization can occur before the afternoon. nonetheless,
guidance suggests potential for damaging wind and perhaps a few
instances of severe hail with storms along the front monday
afternoon and evening.
...western oklahoma into northern texas...
forcing for ascent will be weaker across the dryline into western
oklahoma and northern texas. guidance does suggest that a few
isolated supercells could develop near the dryline, with potential
for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.
given the strong flow aloft and better large scale ascent will
reside further north in kansas, mode may quickly become messy with
uncertainty in overall coverage at this time.
..thornton.. 05/16/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z