spc ac 310729
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0229 am cdt tue mar 31 2026
valid 021200z - 031200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the midwest and great lakes...
...summary...
bands of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions
of the midwest and great lakes regions thursday afternoon. the
primary hazard will be severe gusts, but a tornado or two will also
be possible.
...synopsis...
a surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it accelerates
northeastward towards the upper ms valley in tandem with an upper
trough through the day thursday. residual thunderstorms will likely
be ongoing across the ozarks and will track northeast within a
strengthening wind field. re-intensification appears likely by
mid-afternoon from lower mi southwestward into il and in. additional
thunderstorm development is anticipated along a trailing cold front
across the mid-ms valley through the afternoon. elsewhere, more
loosely organized convection is expected across the lower ms valley
and along the appalachians.
...midwest/great lakes...
a combination of northward moisture advection and diurnal heating
will likely support a re-intensification of residual convection
emanating out of mo by mid-afternoon. winds through the 925-850 mb
layer are forecast to increase to 45-55 knots through the day, which
will support organized convective lines with an attendant threat for
damaging/severe gusts. additionally, forecast soundings generally
depict strong veering above 1 km agl, which coupled with hodograph
elongation through the lowest 1-3 km, will support effective srh
values on the order of 250-350 m2/s2 and a tornado threat with the
more intense/robust lines. that said, the degree of destabilization
ahead of this activity remains uncertain with guidance generally
depicting mlcape values on the order of 500 j/kg. while somewhat
meager, the strong flow fields will likely compensate and support a
severe wind threat. 15% probabilities were introduced from eastern
il northeastward into mi where confidence in the overlap of strong
low-level flow and mlcape near 500 j/kg is highest.
further to the west, additional thunderstorm development is
anticipated along the primary synoptic cold front across the
mid/upper ms valley. as with the activity further east, this
convection will develop within a modestly buoyant, but strongly
sheared environment that should favor a damaging wind threat.
confidence in destabilization is somewhat more limited owing to
uncertainty on how quickly early-morning showers/thunderstorms will
exit the region and allow for adequate diurnal destabilization.
..moore.. 03/31/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z