spc ac 251930
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 pm cdt sat apr 25 2026
valid 271200z - 281200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for the
mid-mississippi valley...mid-south...and lower ohio valley...
...summary...
widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle mississippi into lower ohio and tennessee
valleys monday afternoon and evening. at least initially, this may
include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing
strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern iowa into central
through southern illinois and adjacent east central and southeast
missouri.
...synopsis...
a potent shortwave trough will move into the mid-mississippi valley
on monday. a deepening surface low in the upper mississippi valley
will draw rich moisture northward into a very broad warm sector.
strong deep-layer shear will promote numerous organized storms
capable of all severe hazards.
...mid-mississippi valley...
a fairly well-timed shortwave trough will move into the region by
mid-afternoon. a deepening surface low will lift northeastward into
the upper mississippi valley. associated with the cyclone, a cold
front/dryline composite will drape southwestward through central
iowa/western missouri. within the warm sector, rich moisture
(dewpoints in the upper 60s f) and mid-level lapse rates around 8
c/km will promote mlcape of 2000-3000 j/kg. 60+ kts of effective
shear is expected as the mid-level jet overspreads the region.
supercells are possible along the warm front, pre-frontal trough,
and even the open warm sector given the forcing for ascent. all
severe hazards will be possible including very-large hail,
significant winds, and strong tornadoes. potential for longer track
tornadoes is not out of the question. there remains some uncertainty
as to how convection will ultimately evolve during the afternoon
given the potential for early morning thunderstorms. the nam would
suggest this activity clears out relatively quickly and development
on the pre-frontal trough or front in the afternoon is probable. the
latest ecmwf depicts convection lingering into the later
morning/early afternoon, particularly in northern and parts of
central illinois. this would act to shift the primary corridor of
severe risk farther south and east. the main zone of concern, when
taking all guidance into account, appears to be from far southeast
iowa into central illinois. with time, one or more stronger linear
segments are expected to evolve where damaging winds and qlcs
tornadoes would be possible. a categorical upgrade to level
4/moderate was considered, but will await additional guidance which
will hopefully clarify how early-day convection will evolve.
...mid-south...
though this area will be displaced from the strongest mid-level
ascent, rich moisture (upper 60s f to potentially low 70s f
dewpoints) will promote 2500-3000 j/kg mlcape. a broad mid-level jet
will nose into the region. around 50 kts of effective shear can be
expected. supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible.
..wendt.. 04/25/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z