spc ac 280809
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0209 am cst sat feb 28 2026
valid 021200z - 031200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
thunderstorms will be possible on monday across parts of the central
u.s. and from the intermountain west into the central rockies.
...western oklahoma/eastern texas panhandle/far southern kansas...
a positively tilted mid-level trough will move eastward across
southern california on monday. a fetch of mid-level
west-southwesterly flow will be in place from the desert southwest
into the south-central u.s. at the surface, moisture advection
within south to southeasterly flow will continue across the southern
and central plains. as surface temperatures warm during the day, an
axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop across
west-central and northwest texas. this instability should spread
northward across the eastern texas panhandle and western oklahoma
during the early to mid evening. although weak low-level convergence
should be in place near the instability axis, forecast soundings
suggest that a strong capping inversion will inhibit convective
development monday evening. although there may be a low-end
conditional threat, will hold off an introducing a threat area due
the strong capping inversion that is forecast. further northeast,
elevated storms are expected to develop after midnight from
north-central kansas into western missouri, along the northern edge
of a pronounced 40 to 50 knot low-level jet.
..broyles.. 02/28/2026
click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product
note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z