spc ac 211924
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0224 pm cdt tue jul 21 2026
valid 231200z - 241200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
severe thunderstorm potential appears low on thursday. however,
locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the
central high plains.
...discussion...
the pattern on d3/thursday will continue to favor high amplitude
ridging across the western us and troughing in the eastern us.
surface high pressure will build in from the midwest to the ohio
valley with a cold front extending from the carolinas into the
mid-south/northern gulf states. widely scattered thunderstorm
activity is expected along and south of this boundary. moist and
moderately unstable conditions may support few strong storms with
water loaded downburst potential, but generally weak shear should
limit the overall severe potential.
across the central high plains, easterly upslope flow will promote
moisture advection into eastern colorado/ wyoming. a weak shortwave
will rotate through the flow with thunderstorm development expected
across the high terrain in eastern colorado/wyoming by the afternoon
with a gradual shift into the central plains into the evening.
initially, high based thunderstorms may pose some localized
potential for strong to severe wind. deep layer shear across the
central plains will strengthen, but increasing mlcin with eastward
extent will likely temper severe potential. overall, locally gusty
winds will be possible but organized severe potential appears too
low and localized for inclusion of probabilities.
..thornton.. 07/21/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z