spc ac 230727
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0227 am cdt thu apr 23 2026
valid 251200z - 261200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of south-central kansas into central and eastern oklahoma and far
northwest arkansas...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms will likely develop across portions of oklahoma
and kansas during the evening. these storms will pose a risk of very
large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes. isolated
severe thunderstorms may also develop across portions of north texas
during the afternoon.
... synopsis ...
increasingly diffluent southwest flow will overspread the southern
and central plains on saturday as the midlevel pattern responds to a
strong shortwave trough/vorticity maximum moving into the southwest.
this will induce strong southerly winds across the plains, helping
to quickly draw an old frontal boundary northward. this boundary
should be oriented from northwest to southeast across portions of
oklahoma by late saturday.
... portions of kansas, oklahoma, and western arkansas ...
most of the day should be devoid of thunderstorms as mid-level
heights rise downstream of a digging trough across the southwest. at
the same time, strong southerly winds will transport gulf moisture
northward from the far southern plains into the central plains.
diurnal heating of this airmass will result in the development of
strong instability across much of the area, as maximum sbcape values
approach 4000 j/kg across portions of north texas into central
oklahoma.
during the late evening a subtle perturbation within the southwest
flow is forecast to approach oklahoma. in response to this, the
low-level jet is forecast to increase to between 30 and 40 knots. as
it crosses the northward moving warm front, this warm-air
advection/isentropic ascent will combine with modest large-scale
ascent from the approaching midlevel perturbation to support
scattered thunderstorm develop on the north side of the moisture
gradient. although differences exist between the various models, the
generic depiction of forecast soundings show long hodographs with
varying degrees of low-level curvature in the presence of 2000-3000
j/kg of mucape. thus, any storm that develops within the environment
will be capable of producing all hazards initially. with time,
thunderstorms should grow upscale into one or more southeast moving
bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds with perhaps a
qlcs tornado threat.
... north texas into southern oklahoma ...
diurnal heating of a moist airmass to the east of a dryline will
result in an extremely unstable airmass developing by the afternoon.
although the region will be devoid of large-scale forcing for
ascent, temperatures in the 90fs to the west of the dryline may be
sufficient to induce dryline circulations capable of initiating
isolated thunderstorms. any thunderstorm that develops will be
capable of producing very large hail.
..marsh.. 04/23/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z