spc ac 290730
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 am cdt wed apr 29 2026
valid 011200z - 021200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms friday afternoon
into friday night across parts of middle texas coastal
areas...southeastern louisiana...the florida big bend vicinity and
adjacent portions of southwestern georgia...
...summary...
isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across middle
texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern louisiana and the florida
big bend region friday afternoon through friday night.
...discussion...
latest model output suggests that there will be substantive
amplification within the split westerlies emanating from the
mid-latitude pacific during this period, with ridging building to
the west of 140w longitude into the higher latitudes of western
canada, and on a larger-scale eastward across the canadian prairies
and northern u.s. rockies. within this ridging, a modest mid-level
trough and embedded low are forecast to slowly dig to the west of
the u.s. pacific coast, while broad upper ridging gradually builds
across the subtropical eastern pacific.
downstream, a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained across
and east of the rockies, enhanced across the great plains into
middle mississippi valley, in the wake of short wave troughing
forecast to dig to the southwest of an elongated area of lower
heights slowly shifting eastward through the ontario/quebec/great
lakes and northeast vicinity.
a short wave perturbation reaching the texas big bend vicinity by
12z friday is likely to undergo shearing as it progresses through
the confluence to the south of the digging trough. however, as a
reinforcing cool surge noses southward to the lee of the southern
rockies, across and south/southeast of the texas big bend, guidance
suggests a notable lingering impulse may support a developing wave
along a stalled frontal zone, across middle texas coastal areas
through the eastern gulf coast vicinity friday afternoon through
friday night.
...middle texas coastal plain through florida big bend region...
large-scale forcing for ascent aided by warm advection along and to
the cool side of the front may support a swath of mostly weak
thunderstorm activity across much of the gulf into southern atlantic
coast during this period. among other model output, forecast
soundings from the nam and rrfs indicate thermodynamic profiles with
little potential for severe hail and/or wind. one exception may be
across middle texas coastal areas, where loaded gun type soundings,
probably based above a stable surface-based layer, may become
conducive to supercell development in the presence of strong shear,
as mid-level forcing for ascent overspreads the region by late
afternoon.
late friday evening across southeastern-most parishes of louisiana,
through the florida big bend region by 12z saturday, forecast
soundings suggest modest boundary-layer destabilization is possible
in a pre-frontal corridor coincident with strengthening deep-layer
shear and enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. it is
possible that this will become supportive of supercells, accompanied
by the risk for a tornado or two, in addition to large hail and
localized damaging wind gusts.
..kerr.. 04/29/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z