spc ac 311929
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0229 pm cdt tue mar 31 2026
valid 021200z - 031200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
midwest and southern great lakes region...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the midwest and
great lakes regions thursday afternoon and evening/night. damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
...midwest and great lakes region...
a negatively tilted shortwave trough and related belt of 50-60-kt
midlevel southwesterly flow will move from the central plains
northeastward across the midwest during the afternoon and evening on
thursday. at the same time, an accompanying 50+ kt low-level jet
will overspread the midwest ahead of a deepening surface low
tracking northeastward across ia into wi. showers and thunderstorms
should be ongoing ahead of the surface low and along/south of an
eastward-extending warm front at the start of the period.
in the wake of the early-day convection, current indications are
that lower/middle 60s dewpoints will spread northward beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates -- yielding sufficient boundary-layer recovery
ahead of afternoon and evening thunderstorms near the surface low
and northward-moving warm front. despite some uncertainty with the
early-day convection, around 50 kt of effective shear and enlarged
clockwise-turning hodographs will favor supercells and organized
clusters -- posing a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes. as the details become more clear regarding early-day
convection and related boundary-layer recovery, higher severe
probabilities may eventually be needed.
...middle ms and lower oh valleys...
the latest guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible farther south within a zone of
broadly confluent and moist low-level flow. while relatively weaker
forcing for ascent limits confidence in severe potential with
southward extent, at least subtle midlevel heights falls amid
weak/moderate surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective
shear could support a few strong to severe storms capable of wind
damage and isolated hail during the afternoon.
..weinman.. 03/31/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z