spc ac 091933
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0233 pm cdt thu apr 09 2026
valid 111200z - 121200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over much of west
texas and eastern new mexico...
...summary...
scattered thunderstorms, some producing hail and strong gusts, will
be possible on saturday across parts of west texas and eastern new
mexico. isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out affecting parts
of central california.
...synopsis...
an upper low will swing southeastward into central/northern ca late
on saturday, providing lift and widespread precipitation. to the
east, an upper ridge will be located over the ms valley during the
day, and this will shift east toward the appalachians by 12z sunday.
in between these features, a broad zone of modest southwest flow
aloft will encompass the rockies and plains states.
at the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the
eastern states, with gusty south winds helping to bring 50s to 60s f
dewpoints across tx and ok. a lee trough over the high plains will
be a focus for afternoon storm development, where shear may support
areas of severe storms. elsewhere, low pressure will also affect
parts of central ca, moving ashore late in the day. this may also
focus a few strong storms.
...southern plains...
low pressure will deepen over the northern and central high plains,
with gusty south winds bringing 50s f dewpoints as far north as ne
by 00z. southeasterly surface winds will also bring moisture
westward across west tx and into eastern nm. here, strong heating
and a lack of cap will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms
during the afternoon. shear will not be strong, with only 25-35 kt
southwest winds at 500 mb. some storms may produce hail, and several
storms or clusters may propagate eastward through the night with
areas of strong to severe gusts possible.
a separate area from northeast co into ks and western ne may support
a few severe cells producing hail as well, as this area will
experience stronger heating near the deepening surface trough, and
with locally backed surface winds.
...central ca...
strong cooling aloft will occur during the afternoon and evening as
the upper low moves toward the area. weak instability will develop
as lapse rates aloft steepen, though just a few hundred j/kg mucape
is currently forecast. isolated cells may occur in the central
valley late in the afternoon, and, along a cold front as it
approaches the central coast. gusty winds and perhaps small hail
will be possible. severe potential is more uncertain three days out,
but the setup will continue to be monitored in later outlooks.
..jewell.. 04/09/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z