spc ac 050828
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0228 am cst thu mar 05 2026
valid 071200z - 081200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the texas coastal plain and in the upper ohio valley...
...summary...
severe storms will be possible on saturday from the texas coastal
plain into western louisiana, and in the ohio valley/lower great
lakes. wind damage will be the primary threat, except in parts of
texas where isolated large hail could also occur. a marginal severe
threat will also be possible across the southeast and tennessee
valley.
...texas coastal plain/western louisiana...
mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be in place from the
south-central u.s. to the eastern seaboard on saturday. at the
surface, a cold front will move southeastward into the texas coastal
plains and ark-la-tex by afternoon. surface dewpoints ahead of the
front will be in the 60s f, contributing to moderate instability by
midday. thunderstorms are expected to form along the front early in
the day and steadily increase in coverage. a large complex of storms
is forecast to move southeastward across the texas coastal plain and
the sabine river valley during the afternoon and evening. model
forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally range from 30 to
35 knots, and that lapse rates will be steep in the low-levels. this
should be favorable for a wind-damage threat with intense line
segments that form ahead of the front. a few supercells with large
hail and wind damage may also develop further southwest into the
southern texas hill country, where forecast soundings have stronger
deep-layer shear. during the evening, the severe threat should move
offshore from the middle and upper texas into the gulf.
...ohio and tennessee valleys/southern and central appalachians...
at mid-levels on saturday, a shortwave trough will move eastward
across the north-central u.s., as an associated jet streak
translates through the great lakes. at the surface, a front will
advance eastward across the mid mississippi and ohio valleys. ahead
of the front, surface dewpoints will range from the 60s f in the
ohio and tennessee valleys, to the 50s f in the southern and central
appalachians. weak instability is forecast to develop in most areas
ahead of the front by afternoon. forecast soundings in the upper
ohio valley show very strong wind fields, with 30 to 40 knots of
southwesterly flow just above the surface. this will contribute to a
wind-damage threat with short line segments that form ahead of the
front in the afternoon. the greatest wind-damage threat will likely
be in the late afternoon as a low-level jet consolidates and
strengthens across the upper ohio valley.
..broyles.. 03/05/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z