spc ac 280727
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0227 am cdt tue apr 28 2026
valid 301200z - 011200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
probabilities for severe storms thursday through thursday night
appear less than 5 percent.
...discussion...
models suggest that an elongated area of lower mid-level heights
will continue a slow east-southeastward progression across much of
the upper mississippi valley through northern atlantic seaboard,
with an embedded cyclonic circulation redeveloping southeastward
through the great lakes region. in its wake split westerlies will
remain broadly confluent across and east of the rockies, as a short
wave perturbation emerges from the subtropical eastern pacific.
further suppression of subtropical ridging centered across southern
mexico appears probable thursday through thursday night, but short
wave ridging may persist to the east of the southern rockies,
downstream of the subtropical perturbation.
model spread remains sizable concerning the evolution and motion of
the subtropical perturbation, as well as developments within a
branch of westerlies to the north, emanating from the mid-latitude
pacific. however, to the east of the rockies, cool surface ridging
is likely to be maintained across much of the great plains and
mississippi valley into southeast. while the frontal zone on the
leading edge of this air mass advances away from much of the
atlantic seaboard, it is generally forecast to stall across northern
florida through the northern gulf or gulf coast vicinity. more
uncertainty exists, due to model spread, whether it will make
further progress southward through the texas big bend vicinity and
coastal plain, or redevelop northward a bit, north of the coastal
plain and pecos valley.
forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection, downstream of the approaching subtropical perturbation,
may contribute to a corridor of increasing thunderstorm development
above the stable surface-based air across parts of the permian basin
and texas south plains through much of central texas by late
thursday night. however, it remains unclear if elevated
destabilization will become supportive of a risk for severe hail,
before convection becomes increasingly widespread.
otherwise, the front might provide a general focus for widely
scattered thunderstorm activity near the gulf coast vicinity, while
destabilization beneath cool mid-level air across the great basin
into southern rockies supports scattered, mostly diurnal
thunderstorm activity.
..kerr.. 04/28/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z