spc ac 301928
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0228 pm cdt thu apr 30 2026
valid 021200z - 031200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for southern
georgia into portions of central florida...
...summary...
strong to marginally severe storms are possible in southern georgia
into northern/central florida.
...synopsis...
a large upper trough across the eastern u.s. will continue to pivot
through the southeast. a surface cold front will move southward into
the florida peninsula.
...southern georgia into florida...
rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s f dewpoints) is
expected to exist ahead of the southward-moving cold front.
mid-level ascent will be strongest across southern georgia and north
florida, diminishing with southward extent. strong flow within the
850-500 mb layer will help to organize convection. areas that
receive greater surface heating could allow a few strong to severe
storms to develop during the late morning/afternoon. deep-layer
shear will be strong, but will also be parallel to the front. at
least some activity may have a tendency to be undercut. both
supercells and small clusters will be possible. large hail and
damaging winds are the primary concerns. low-level shear will be
greater in the morning and decrease with time as the low-level jet
moves northeast, leading to a more uncertain tornado threat.
..wendt.. 04/30/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z