spc ac 221842
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1242 pm cst sun feb 22 2026
valid 241200z - 251200z
...no thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
thunderstorm potential appears low on tuesday.
...synopsis...
a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
southeastward from the northern plains into the great lakes and ohio
valley on tuesday. this system will be accompanied by a deepening
surface low and trailing cold front. while this system may be
accompanied by shallow/weak convection, very meager
moisture/instability should limit thunderstorm potential.
upstream, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into parts of
the pacific northwest, helping to dampen an upper ridge that will
initially be in place over the region. rain and gusty winds will
accompany this system across coastal or and northern ca, but
thunderstorm potential appears low due to negligible instability.
..dean.. 02/22/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0830z