spc ac 091927
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0227 pm cdt thu jul 09 2026
valid 111200z - 121200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the
southern high plains through the tennessee valley to the
mid-atlantic and carolinas...
...summary...
strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging
wind and large hail are possible from the southern high plains
through the tennessee valley to the mid-atlantic and carolinas
saturday afternoon and evening. isolated severe storms are also
possible in southern arizona.
...synopsis...
a mid/upper-level high is forecast to strengthen while shifting from
the lower co valley and four corners into the central rockies. a
belt of strong mid-level winds will develop across the pacific
northwest into northern rockies, between the high and an upper low
along the british columbia coast. downstream from those
developments, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through new
england and the mid-atlantic with a mid-level wind shift/shear axis
stretching from the central plains into the tn valley.
at the surface, a front is expected to move through the mid-atlantic
with the trailing extension of the boundary stretching through the
mid south/tn valley into the southern high plains.
...central and southern plains...
widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by afternoon
along the surface front from southern ks and ok into the ok and tx
panhandles. the steepest mid-level lapse rates will remain confined
to the high plains with increasing boundary-layer moisture content
with eastward extent, both of which are expected to yield a
moderately unstable environment. the 12z models indicate a channel
of stronger mid-level winds within the eastern periphery of the
upper high across the high plains, which may enhance vertical shear
across that segment of the frontal zone. as such, the potential for
some storm organization appears to exist with an attendant risk for
large hail and severe wind gusts.
...ozark plateau to tennessee valley...
the potential for early-day storms introduces forecast uncertainty
due to the possibility for lingering clouds and precipitation to
limit the destabilization process in some areas. where stronger
heating can occur, the presence of a moist boundary layer will
contribute to moderate to strong instability by the peak of the
diurnal heating cycle. the synoptic front and residual outflow
boundaries will likely focus the most intense storms with the
mid-level shear axis potentially enhancing background forcing for
ascent. generally weak vertical shear will limit the potential for
storm organization with the primary hazard being damaging wind
gusts.
...southern mid-atlantic into the carolinas...
the glancing influence of the shortwave trough moving through the
northeast will combine with convergence along the front and
preceding lee trough to foster scattered afternoon storms. the
strongest vertical shear is expected to remain to the north of the
area; however, the presence of a moist and moderately unstable air
mass will be supportive of a few strong storms capable of damaging
downburst winds.
...southern arizona...
some enhancement of mid-level winds is forecast south of the upper
high, yielding a corridor of stronger deep-layer shear, which will
coincide with a moist and moderately unstable air mass. that
environment will be supportive of a few strong to briefly severe
storms with a risk for locally damaging wind gusts.
..mead.. 07/09/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z