spc ac 111859
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1259 pm cst thu dec 11 2025
valid 131200z - 141200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across near south
florida and the keys saturday night.
...synopsis...
an upper trough over the eastern u.s. will deepen as the western
upper ridging moves inland through the forecast period on saturday.
a surface boundary extending along the western and central gulf
coast vicinity will move offshore by the end of the period. weak
warm advection and some modestly increasing midlevel westerly flow
in the vicinity of this boundary may support isolated showers from
the tx coast into portions of the central gulf coast. however,
forecast soundings indicate minimal instability (100-200 j/kg
mucape), largely stunted by warm midlevel temperatures. while
shallow convection is possible, lightning appears unlikely.
the exception may be across far southern fl and the keys late in the
period where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place. this
will support greater instability (around 1000-1500 j/kg mlcape) amid
modest vertical shear ahead of the upper trough. a few thunderstorms
may approach the keys and south fl coast in the 08-12z time frame.
..leitman.. 12/11/2025
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0830z