spc ac 081933
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0233 pm cdt sun mar 08 2026
valid 101200z - 111200z
...there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across
northeast missouri...far southeast iowa...and parts of
northern/central illinois...
...summary...
scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on tuesday from the
southern plains into the southern great lakes vicinity. all severe
hazards are possible.
...synopsis...
a robust low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across
northern mx and the southwest to the southern plains through the
period. at the same time, a broad northern-stream midlevel trough
will gradually amplify as it advances eastward across the northern
plains into the upper ms valley. in the low-levels, a
quasi-stationary warm front will extend eastward into the southern
great lakes vicinity from a weak surface low over the middle ms
valley. farther south, a separate surface low will evolve over the
central high plains, while a dryline extends southward before being
overtaken by a cold front. along and east of these features, a
broad/expansive warm sector characterized by middle/upper 60s
dewpoints will encompass the southern/central plains into the middle
ms valley and southern great lakes region. while this large-scale
pattern should favor at least scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of all hazards across a broad area, the split-flow nature of the
pattern limits confidence in the details.
...middle ms valley and southern great lakes...
along and south of the quasi-stationary warm front, a low-level jet
will gradually strengthen into the evening/overnight hours,
resulting in large clockwise-curved hodographs. given ample
moisture/buoyancy, supercell clusters will be the primary concern,
with an accompanying risk of damaging winds, a few tornadoes (some
possibly strong) and severe hail. given a substantial westerly
component to the deep-layer flow/shear, any established storms that
evolve over the middle ms valley region may continue to pose a
tornado risk into the southern great lakes region during the
overnight hours, though confidence in this scenario is currently
low.
...southern plains...
severe thunderstorms are expected along/east of the dryline in the
southern plains, where ample deep-layer shear and surface-based
buoyancy will support a mix of organized clusters and supercells
capable of all hazards. eventually, linear forcing along the front
should promote upscale growth, when the severe-wind and tornado risk
may increase into central tx. a separate corridor of severe
potential is possible across north-central into southern ok, where
the potential for semi-discrete supercells is evident.
..weinman.. 03/08/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z