spc ac 120653
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0153 am cdt fri jun 12 2026
valid 141200z - 151200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the mid-atlantic region...
...summary...
isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
mid-atlantic on sunday.
...synopsis...
an upper shortwave trough will pivot across the great lakes to the
northeast on sunday. as this occurs, a belt of enhanced
southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread much of the
northeastern u.s. at the surface, a cold front will be oriented from
ohio to the mid-south, then westward into north/central tx by
mid/late afternoon. a seasonally moist airmass will be in place
ahead of the front. pockets of moderate to strong instability will
develop across parts of the southern plains vicinity as the cold
front develops southward through the period. additional areas of
moderate to strong destabilization are possible across the
mid-atlantic vicinity.
...mid-atlantic...
currently, the best overlap of enhanced west/southwesterly shear and
mlcape near 2000 j/kg appears to be across the mid-atlantic from
eastern va into southeast pa/southern nj within a moist axis and
pre-frontal surface trough. scattered thunderstorms may develop
within this area during peak heating and pose a risk mainly for
damaging gusts. stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected with
northward extent into pa/ny and portions of new england. however,
degree of destabilization is uncertain due to cloud cover and
possible remnant convection over the ohio valley from the day
2/saturday period moving across the upper ohio valley early in the
period ahead of the surface cold front. depending on model trends
and mesoscale details emanating from prior day convection, severe
probability could be adjusted northward in subsequent outlooks.
...southeast nm into the arklatex...
convection will develop near the southward-advancing surface front
during the afternoon within a very moist and moderately unstable
airmass. convection may tend to be anafrontal, and storms could
quickly become undercut by the front. nevertheless, isolated strong
gusts and hail will be possible with stronger storms.
..leitman.. 06/12/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z