spc ac 061908
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0208 pm cdt mon apr 06 2026
valid 081200z - 091200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of kansas into far southern nebraska...
...summary...
thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
the central plains wednesday evening.
...central plains...
a compact upper trough/low will move from the northern plains to the
great lakes on wednesday. at the surface, low pressure will shift
from southern manitoba to near james bay in ontario. a trailing cold
front will develop southeast across the upper midwest and central
plains. boundary-layer moisture will remain limited due to
persistent surface high pressure across the east, cutting off
stronger gulf moisture return. nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft
(around -15 c at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and
weak instability in a corridor along/just ahead of the cold front
across the central plains.
isolated thunderstorms are forecast near the front during the
evening. vertical shear will be somewhat weak through 6 km, but
effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is evident in forecast
soundings. furthermore, strong west/northwesterly flow through the
top half of the cloud-bearing layer will result in
lengthened/straight hodographs. a deep, well-mixed boundary layer is
also forecast. this environment marginally supports a few strong to
severe storms capable of producing locally strong gusts, and perhaps
marginally severe hail if updrafts can be sustained.
..leitman.. 04/06/2026
click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product
note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z