spc ac 181855
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0155 pm cdt wed mar 18 2026
valid 201200z - 211200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
a low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop on friday near the
upper ohio valley and vicinity, and also near the southeast florida
coast.
...synopsis...
an expansive upper ridge will remain in place over most of the
western conus on friday. a downstream large-scale upper trough will
persist over the east. within the large-scale trough, one shortwave
will move offshore of florida early in the period, while an upstream
shortwave moves across the great lakes. a surface low will accompany
the great lakes shortwave trough as it moves southeastward, as a
trailing cold front moves through the ohio valley.
a low probability (around 10 percent) thunderstorm threat may
continue from late d2/thursday into early d3/friday near the
southeast fl coast. farther north, modest low-level moistening (with
dewpoints increasing to near/above 50 f) may support isolated
thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening near the
upper ohio valley, in the vicinity of the advancing cold front. weak
instability is currently expected to limit organized
severe-thunderstorm potential.
..dean.. 03/18/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z