spc ac 270730
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 am cdt sat jun 27 2026
valid 291200z - 301200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the
mid-missouri valley into the upper midwest...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern
plains into the upper midwest on monday. large hail and severe winds
are the primary concerns.
...central/northern plains into the upper midwest...
a shortwave trough is expected to eject into the dakotas and the
upper midwest. the timing and evolution of this feature varies in
model guidance. the ecmwf suggests a later and a more
eastward-moving wave ejection as compared to the earlier, meridional
trajectory of the nam/gfs. these differences lead to drastic
differences in where convection will ultimately form. the farther
north solutions show little in the way of convection as compared to
the ecmwf. a very moist airmass will be in place along with steep
mid-level lapse rates overspreading the area. the amplified ridge in
the east will remain in place and will suppress thunderstorm
potential away from the trough/cold front. models all suggest
extreme buoyancy (4500+ j/kg mlcape) will develop within the warm
sector. deep-layer shear will be strong enough for organized storms.
given the potential for intense storms, a broad slight will be
maintained with the caveat that convective development is somewhat
conditional/uncertain.
..wendt.. 06/27/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z