spc ac 271918
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0118 pm cst fri feb 27 2026
valid 011200z - 021200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
thunderstorms will be possible on sunday across parts of south
florida, the southern and central plains, and in northern
california.
...synopsis...
the mean northwesterly flow regime currently over the conus will
gradually begin to shift east through the late weekend and into
early next week as a somewhat more potent upper-level wave
approaches the west coast. cooling temperatures aloft associated
with the approaching upper wave will support adequate buoyancy for
isolated thunderstorms across ca and into or, nv, and parts of
southwest id late sunday afternoon into the evening hours. further
east, strengthening mid-level flow across the central rockies will
promote weak lee cyclogenesis in proximity to a residual baroclinic
zone across the southern plains. an uptick in low-level winds will
augment isentropic upglide over the frontal zone across ok into
eastern ks, southwest mo, and northwest ar. strong mid-level winds
atop strong veering in the lowest few kilometers will conditionally
support organized convection; however, most guidance suggests
buoyancy profiles will remain fairly limited (less than 500 j/kg
mucape per gefs/ecens output) due to meager moisture quality. this
limits confidence in any severe threat at this time. isolated
thunderstorms may linger across southern fl where an unstable, but
weakly capped, environment should be in place as a weak frontal
boundary drifts south.
..moore.. 02/27/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0830z