spc ac 141927
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0227 pm cdt tue jul 14 2026
valid 161200z - 171200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
organized severe thunderstorms are currently not expected on
thursday.
...synopsis...
a deep-layer cyclone is expected to remain in place over parts of
labrador and northern quebec on thursday. a vigorous mid/upper-level
shortwave is forecast to move through the base of the attendant
trough across parts of northern new england. to the west, a
mid/upper-level cyclone off of the pacific northwest coast is
forecast to move north-northeastward toward vancouver island.
farther south, a persistent mid/upper-level trough will continue to
bring a threat of widespread convection and heavy rainfall across
parts of southwest tx and vicinity. thunderstorm potential will
cover a large part of the conus, though generally weak
mid/upper-level flow should limit potential for organized convection
across most areas.
...northern new england...
a strong reinforcing front will accompany the mid/upper shortwave
moving across northern new england on thursday. guidance varies
considerably regarding the extent of heating and destabilization
along/ahead of this front. the more aggressive guidance (such as the
nam nest and rrfs) depicts mlcape increasing to near/above 500 j/kg,
sufficient for organized convection given the strength of the
low-midlevel wind fields. other guidance depicts very limited
destabilization and severe potential. depending on trends regarding
destabilization and timing of the front, severe probabilities may
eventually be needed.
...mid-atlantic...
while large-scale ascent will generally be weak, strong heating in
the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone may allow for isolated storm
development across parts of the mid-atlantic and vicinity on
thursday. low-level flow will be weak and deep-layer shear will be
modest at best, but localized strong/damaging gusts could occur, if
sustained storms develop within this hot and well-mixed regime.
...interior northwest...
while the magnitude of diurnal destabilization across parts of the
interior northwest remains uncertain, some potential for
strong-storm development could evolve as stronger mid/upper-level
flow associated with the offshore low overspreads the region. this
area will continue to be monitored regarding the need for severe
probabilities.
..dean.. 07/14/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z