spc ac 241929
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0229 pm cdt wed jun 24 2026
valid 261200z - 271200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of the high plains...southern kansas and northern oklahoma...the
ozarks into the ohio valley...and portions of the northeast...
...summary...
isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible across the high plains, southern kansas and
northern oklahoma, and southern missouri into northern
arkansas/western kentucky on friday. additional severe storms
capable of damaging wind will also be possible across portions of
the northeastern us.
...synopsis...
a strengthening mid-level trough will move inland across portions of
the pacific northwest on d3/friday, with enhanced mid-level flow
spreading into the northern rockies and northern plains. height
rises will occur across the high/central high plains. a shortwave
trough will move across portions of the northeast. a surface low
will move northward into quebec with a trailing cold front extending
from the northeastern us into the ohio valley and south and west
into the southern plains to a surface low across the oklahoma/texas
panhandles. lee cyclogenesis is expected across the northern plains
late in the period.
...high plains...
height rises are expecting amid building mid-level ridging across
the high plains. as the trough deepens to the west across the
pacific northwest, strong southwesterly mid-level flow will
overspread the western portion of the ridge. despite height rises, a
few isolated supercells may develop across portions of eastern
montana into eastern wyoming/colorado, given moderate instability
and deep layer shear around 30-40 kts progged by late afternoon.
...southern kansas and northern oklahoma into the ozarks and western
ohio valley...
strong instability is forecast near the frontal boundary across
northern oklahoma into southern kansas friday afternoon. forcing for
ascent will remain somewhat weak, with some mid-level height rises
expected. however, it appears that thunderstorm activity will
develop along the front from southern kansas into northern oklahoma
spreading eastward into the ozarks and perhaps the ohio valley by
late afternoon/evening. guidance suggests that mlcin will strengthen
south of the front across central oklahoma into arkansas, which will
likely limit convection to near and just south of the boundary.
along the front, deep layer shear around 30-40 kts will support
organized storms and perhaps a few supercells capable of large hail
and damaging wind. as the low-level jet increases through the
afternoon/evening, thunderstorm coverage will likely increase with
some increase in potential for a tornado.
...northeast...
as a surface low moves northward into quebec friday, a cold front
will shift south and eastward across the northeastern us. strong
upper-level westerly flow with thunderstorms developing along and
ahead of the cold front by the afternoon. a pocket of moderate
instability overlapping strong deep layer shear around 50 kts will
support a few organized severe storms capable of damaging wind.
..thornton.. 06/24/2026
click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product
note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z