spc ac 200721
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0221 am cdt mon jul 20 2026
valid 221200z - 231200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
north carolina into southeast virginia...
...summary...
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts across parts of southeast virginia and north
carolina.
...mid-atlantic to new england...
several shortwave impulses will migrate through persistent upper
troughing over the east on wednesday. at the surface, low pressure
will lift northeast across quebec. a trailing cold front will move
east/southeast across portions of the region, become positioned from
the mid-atlantic coast into central nc by thursday morning.
southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain a
seasonally moist airmass. moderate destabilization is expected
across parts of the mid-atlantic into nc where boundary-layer
moisture is greater and stronger heating may occur. weak instability
will be located over new england. around 30-40 kt southwesterly flow
from 850-500 mb will provide sufficient vertical shear for some
organized cells/clusters. isolated strong to severe storms producing
damaging winds are expected across portions of the mid-atlantic into
new england, with the greatest risk across parts of va/nc and
vicinity.
..leitman.. 07/20/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z