spc ac 260730
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 am cdt sun apr 26 2026
valid 281200z - 291200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms tuesday afternoon
and evening in a corridor across the southeastern great plains into
lower ohio valley...
...summary...
scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible
tuesday afternoon and evening in a corridor from the southeastern
great plains into lower ohio valley.
...discussion...
models indicate that an evolving broad cyclone will continue to
deepen while migrating northeast of the upper great lakes region
through the southeastern hudson bay vicinity tuesday through tuesday
night. in its wake, it appears that a cold front will gradually
advance eastward and southward through the ohio valley/mid south and
southern great plains. this may be slowed a bit as a trailing short
wave perturbation supports a developing frontal wave, as it migrates
through the base of broad, larger-scale interior north american
troughing, to the north of a prominent subtropical high maintaining
a notable influence as far north as the southern great plains
through gulf coast states.
there remains notable spread within the latest model output
concerning the frontal progression and where the stronger forcing
for ascent develops with the evolving wave. a conglomerate
convective outflow boundary may also initially precede the front
across the northern gulf coast states through ark-la-tex at the
outset of the period. even so, guidance suggests that a corridor of
moderate to strong potential instability will again develop along
the frontal zone across parts of the southern great plains into mid
south, and perhaps northeastward through portions of the ohio
valley. aided by favorable vertical shear near the southern fringe
of the westerlies, this environment could become conducive to the
development of supercell structures and organizing clusters with
potential to produce damaging wind gusts, large hail and perhaps a
risk for tornadoes.
..kerr.. 04/26/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z