spc ac 021917
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0217 pm cdt tue jun 02 2026
valid 041200z - 051200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from northern
nebraska into portions of the northern plains....
...summary...
severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from parts of the northern high plains into lower
elevations of the northern and central plains thursday afternoon
into night. more isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible in parts of the upper midwest and upper great
lakes.
...synopsis...
mid-level zonal flow with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is
forecast from the northwest to the upper midwest on thursday. at the
surface, high pressure will dominate much of the eastern conus with
a more nebulous surface pattern elsewhere.
...northern/central plains...
lee troughing is expected across the central high plains through the
day thursday as a ~50 knot jet streak emerges across the eastern
wyoming into western south dakota and the nebraska panhandle. as
this occurs, upslope flow will strengthen/moisten across southwest
south dakota into northeast wyoming. this upslope region will likely
be the zone for initial severe storm development thursday afternoon.
additional storms may also develop eastward along the front and
southward along the dryline. the most favorable zone for severe
supercells is across western south dakota where moderate to strong
shear will overlap moderate to strong instability near the surface
low/triple point. all severe weather hazards (including very large
hail) will be possible thursday afternoon and evening with eventual
upscale growth into a mcs into the overnight hours.
isolated to scattered storms are expected along the diffuse dryline
across the central/southern high plains. however, mid-level flow is
expected to be weak across this region and lapse rates are not
expected to be that steep. therefore, any severe weather potential
from this activity should remain quite isolated.
..bentley.. 06/02/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z