spc ac 020729
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0229 am cdt thu jul 02 2026
valid 041200z - 051200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms within parts of
the mid-atlantic...
...summary...
isolated to scattered storms will be possible from the central
plains into the midwest and mid-atlantic this fourth of july
(saturday). the greatest concentration of strong to severe storms
will be within portions of the mid-atlantic.
...mid-atlantic...
strong heating of a very moist airmass will again support 3000+ j/kg
mlcape by the afternoon. despite weak shear, inverted-v low-level
profiles will support strong to severe downburst winds that could
produce wind damage. given the presence of a cold front and surface
trough as well as marginally greater forcing for ascent than friday,
storm coverage will be greater. a slight risk has been added where a
few organizing clusters of storms may occur.
...lower great lakes vicinity...
while there is still uncertainty, a shortwave trough/mcv is expected
to move through wisconsin/minnesota. convection may be ongoing in
the morning, but some clearing/destabilization will be possible by
the afternoon. should this occur, a few strong to severe storms
could produce wind damage and perhaps marginal hail. a tornado would
also be possible given the backed surface winds in the vicinity of a
weak surface low.
...central high plains...
moist air will remain behind an outflow/front composite boundary in
the central plains. this should promote around 40-45 kts of
effective shear across the front range. large hail and severe winds
would be possible with supercells that develop.
...central plains into ohio valley...
a broad area of 3000-4000 j/kg mlcape will develop south of the
quasi-stationary boundary. damaging wind gusts would be the likely
concern with storms that develop. a greater wind threat could
materialize if any clusters/mcs can develop.
..wendt.. 07/02/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z