spc ac 120641
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0141 am cdt thu mar 12 2026
valid 141200z - 151200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
severe thunderstorms are not expected on saturday.
...synopsis...
a potent upper trough will dig southward across the rockies on
saturday, emerging over the northern plains to southern rockies by
sunday morning. in response to sharp height falls, a deepening
surface cyclone over the central high plains will develop eastward
through the period, becoming oriented over the lower mo valley
sunday morning. a prior cold frontal passage deep into the gulf will
result in only modest moisture return northward across the
south-central u.s., with any deeper boundary-layer moisture
remaining mostly offshore, and across south tx. given this dry
airmass ahead of the surface low and associated trailing cold front
moving across the plains, little instability is forecast and
thunderstorms are unlikely through early sunday across much of the
warm sector over the south-central u.s.
isolated thunderstorms are possible across south fl where a
seasonally warm/moist and unstable airmass will reside. large-scale
ascent will remain nebulous, but isolated thunderstorms could
develop along the sea breeze across the southwest peninsula. weak
vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude severe
thunderstorm potential.
..leitman.. 03/12/2026
click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product
note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z