spc ac 071852
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0152 pm cdt tue apr 07 2026
valid 091200z - 101200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the
southern high plains into kansas and the mid-missouri valley...
...summary...
an isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected
to develop on thursday in parts of the lower to mid missouri valley
westward into ks, and southward across the southern high plains.
...synopsis...
a mid/upper shortwave trough embedded within larger-scale troughing
across the northern u.s. will pivot eastward across the northern
plains to the upper midwest on thursday. meanwhile, low-amplitude
upper ridging over the west will meander eastward toward the
rockies. at the surface, a boundary will be oriented west to east
across northern ks and northern mo while a surface dryline extends
south/southwest across western ks into western tx. neutral height
tendencies across the southern plains will preclude stronger surface
cyclogenesis, but weak lee surface troughing is forecast across the
high plains.
...central plains to mid-mo valley...
boundary layer moisture will remain modest across the warm sector,
with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s f. nevertheless, steep
midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 c/km will support mucape to
around 1000-1500 j/kg near the west to east surface front.
vertically veering wind profiles, with 40-50 kt flow through much of
the cloud bearing layer will support supercell wind profiles with
effective shear greater than 40 kt. large-scale ascent is forecast
to remain modest, with the main midlevel shortwave passing to the
north of the area. however, convergence along the boundary and
continued warm advection into the evening as a low-level jet
increases should be sufficient for scattered thunderstorm
development. isolated large hail will be possible with this activity
from late afternoon into the evening.
...southern high plains...
a more conditional severe thunderstorm environment will exist
further south along the dryline across western tx toward southwest
ks. strong heating and mixing along the boundary, and low-level
convergence may be sufficient for a few storms developing by
evening. steep midlevel lapse rates will support mlcape to around
1000-1500 j/kg. vertical shear will remain modest, generally less
than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. isolated large hail will be
possible with any stronger cells that can develop and be maintained.
additionally, a well mixed boundary-layer and inverted-v sub-cloud
layer thermodynamic profiles suggest locally strong wind gusts also
may be possible.
..leitman.. 04/07/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z