spc ac 131926
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0126 pm cst fri feb 13 2026
valid 151200z - 161200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the southeast and eastern gulf coast vicinity...
...summary...
strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather, may continue through the day into sunday night
across parts of the southeast and eastern gulf coast region.
...parts of the southeast/gulf coast...
no major changes have been made to the marginal risk area.
a qlcs may be ongoing sunday morning from southeast la into southern
ms and far southwest al, as an initially vigorous mid/upper-level
trough/low and surface cyclone move eastward across a gradually
moistening environment. some threat for locally damaging wind and a
brief tornado may accompany this qlcs sunday morning, though scant
buoyancy and a tendency towards gradual dampening of the primary
shortwave trough and surface cyclone may result in a weakening trend
with the initial qlcs.
despite the expected weakening trend, deep-layer flow/shear across
the warm sector will remain favorable for organized convection, and
continued low-level moistening may allow for deep convection to
redevelop near the gulf coast. destabilization will likely remain
limited, but if sufficient buoyancy can be maintained, then some
threat for locally damaging wind and/or a tornado could evolve
across south al/ga and the fl panhandle into the afternoon, and
potentially spread into parts of the fl peninsula by sunday night.
another area of storm redevelopment may evolve across parts of ms/al
during the afternoon and evening, in association with the primary
midlevel low. the extent of recovery in the wake of the morning qlcs
remains uncertain, but cooling temperatures aloft could support
development of a few strong storms and potentially an isolated
severe threat.
..dean.. 02/13/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0830z