spc ac 191929
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0229 pm cdt thu mar 19 2026
valid 211200z - 221200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
isolated general thunderstorms are possible saturday over the
tennessee valley to southern appalachians, and also across parts of
the upper midwest.
...synopsis...
some deamplification of the upper-level pattern is expected on
saturday, with a transition to more zonal flow across much of the
western and central conus. a large-scale upper trough will remain in
place across much of the east, with a weak embedded shortwave
expected to move from the mid ms valley toward the southeast.
...tn valley into parts of ga and the carolinas...
a weak front that moves into the region late d2/friday is forecast
to stall and potentially become rather ill-defined with time, as a
surface low deepens well to the northwest across the north-central
plains. a remnant moisture/instability gradient is still depicted by
guidance to be draped from tn into the southern appalachians and sc
by saturday afternoon. modest destabilization (with mlcape
potentially approaching 1000 j/kg) will be possible along/south of
the remnant boundary, and isolated storm development may occur as
the weakening shortwave trough moves across the region.
deep-layer shear will generally remain rather modest within the weak
northwest-flow regime, and storm coverage may tend to remain limited
due to weak large-scale ascent. as a result, confidence in an
organized-severe threat is currently too low for probabilities,
though isolated strong storms with localized hail and/or wind-damage
potential cannot be ruled out, and a marginal risk may eventually be
needed for parts of the region.
..dean.. 03/19/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z