spc ac 070633
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0133 am cdt thu may 07 2026
valid 091200z - 101200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of southern kansas into northwest and central oklahoma...
...summary...
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on saturday
across portions of southern kansas into northwestern and central
oklahoma.
...ks/ok...
a midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central rockies to
the lower ms valley on saturday. at the surface, low pressure will
develop in response to the approaching trough in the vicinity of the
tx panhandle. a dryline will extend southward from the low across
west tx while a warm front extends from far southern ks into
northern/central ar. gulf moisture will spread northward across ok
to far southern ks and isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
develop by 00z. a cold front will eventually dive southward across
the central/southern plains during the nighttime hours, but the
timing of this feature is still uncertain.
the warm sector is expected to be somewhat narrow across southern ks
and ok. nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft will foster steep
midlevel lapse rates and mlcape around 1000-2000 j/kg will be
possible. boundary layer moisture will be somewhat limited,
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. strong heating will allow for
deep mixing, and forecast soundings indicate any storms that develop
will likely be higher-based. effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt
will support organized convection posing a risk for hail and
damaging wind gusts.
..leitman.. 05/07/2026
click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product
note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z