spc ac 200747
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0147 am cst fri feb 20 2026
valid 221200z - 231200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the florida
peninsula during the day on sunday. a couple of lightning strikes
will also be possible across the outer banks of north carolina.
... discussion ...
the mid-level pattern will undergo amplification on sunday as a
strong mid-level low/trough dives southeast from the mid-mississippi
valley to off the north carolina coast and takes on a neutral to
negative tilt. a surface low off the carolina coast will deepen
rapidly in response to the intensifying large-scale ascent.
northerly winds on the west side of the deepening surface low will
drive a surface cold front south through the florida peninsula,
potentially clearing south florida by monday morning. modest
instability (~500 j/kg) across the central peninsula may support
isolated thunderstorms on sunday, although warm mid-level
temperatures should temper the overall thunderstorm
potential/coverage.
elsewhere, an isolated lightning strike or two will be possible
across the outer banks of north carolina as the surface low rapidly
deepens and an intensifying warm conveyor belt results in elevated
instability developing to the west/northwest of the surface low.
additionally, a few lightning strikes may occur along and off the
coast of the pacific northwest as the next upper-trough approaches.
however, coverage should remain sparse enough to preclude the need
for delineation.
..marsh.. 02/20/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z