spc ac 180724
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0224 am cdt mon may 18 2026
valid 201200z - 211200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of the mid atlantic and southern high plains...
...summary...
scattered thunderstorm activity across the mid-atlantic region
wednesday may pose a risk for wind and hail. isolated thunderstorms
within the upslope regime in western texas/eastern new mexico will
also pose a risk for large hail.
...discussion...
the mid-level trough across the great lakes will continue to lift
northward into canada d3/wednesday. a cold front will extend from
the northeast southward across the southern ohio valley into the
lower mississippi valley and westward into southwestern texas. near
the front across the mid-atlantic, sufficient deep layer shear and
mlcape will be in place to support a few organized storms, with
potential for damaging winds and large hail which supports inclusion
of a marginal risk.
further south across western texas, isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms may develop south of the front within the upslope flow
regime across western texas into eastern new mexico. though deep
layer shear will be generally weak, moderate instability and steep
low to mid-level lapse rates may support a few instances of large
hail and severe winds.
..thornton.. 05/18/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z