spc ac 061931
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0231 pm cdt wed may 06 2026
valid 081200z - 091200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of
missouri into oklahoma...
...summary...
a few severe storms are possible on friday from parts of oklahoma
into missouri. scattered storms are also likely over much of texas
into the lower mississippi valley.
...synopsis...
a northwest flow regime will exist from the plains into the ms
valley on friday as an embedded shortwave moves across the central
plains and rapidly moves toward the tn valley into saturday morning.
meanwhile, a compact upper low is forecast to move across the rio
grande valley and into tx, providing cool temperatures aloft.
at the surface, a cold front will move into mo/ks and ok, which will
be situated below the cool temperature aloft. heating/steep lapse
rates near this boundary as well as southerly winds bringing 50s and
60s f dewpoints northward will support scattered strong to severe
storms along this portion of the front. the long hodographs and
northwest flow regime suggest cells capable of hail are most likely.
to the south, bouts of thunderstorms will develop from tx eastward
toward the lower ms valley. first, early in the day within the
moisture return/warm advection regime, then later in the day as the
upper low approaches from the west. there is a heavy convective
signal from late afternoon into the overnight across much of tx,
however, shear will be weak across most areas. at least low severe
probabilities may be added in later outlooks as predictability
increases and more targeted areas can be discerned.
..jewell.. 05/06/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z