spc ac 171930
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 pm cdt wed jun 17 2026
valid 191200z - 201200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the
arklatex into the southeast...
...summary...
isolated strong thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across
the arklatex into portions of the gulf coast states/southeast on
friday.
...arklatex into the southeast...
the stalled cold front will provide a focus for renewed convective
development during the afternoon. a potential mcv in north texas may
drift eastward and promote afternoon convection. otherwise, strong
heating of a low/mid 70s f dewpoint airmass south of the boundary
will promote moderate to strong buoyancy (2500-3500 j/kg mlcape).
deep-layer flow will be weak, but strong water-loaded downdrafts
will be capable of damaging wind gusts.
...upper mississippi valley...
a compact, strong shortwave trough will move through the northern
plains into the upper mississippi valley during the afternoon. given
the short wavelength between the upper trough in the northeast and
this compact system, moisture return will be somewhat limited
(dewpoints in the mid to perhaps upper 50s f). temperatures aloft,
however, will be quite cold (-18 to -20 c at 500 mb). widely
scattered convection appears probable ahead of the shortwave trough
along and near a weak surface trough. storms appear they will be
relatively low topped. given the limited moisture/buoyancy, small
hail is possible, but potential for large hail is too low for
probabilities.
..wendt.. 06/17/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z