spc ac 041843
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1243 pm cst wed feb 04 2026
valid 061200z - 071200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
thunderstorm potential generally appears low on friday and friday
night.
...southwest...
multiple minor shortwave impulses should gradually evolve within a
broad, low-amplitude trough shifting inland from the west coast.
moisture for lightning-producing appears rather limited inland of
coastal southern ca, yielding insufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm
probabilities at or above 10 percent over the mojave desert and
lower co valley. still, most 12z guidance indicates late-day
convective potential over the western transverse ranges. scant
buoyancy amid 500-mb temperatures near -22 c, along with
orographically augmented weak ascent, might foster a couple
thunderstorms.
..grams.. 02/04/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0830z