spc ac 231931
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0231 pm cdt tue jun 23 2026
valid 251200z - 261200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms portions of the
central/northern high plains and northern oklahoma/southern kansas
into the ozarks...
...summary...
scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the central/northern high plains with a threat for large to very
large hail and severe wind, and perhaps a tornado or two for
portions of northern oklahoma and southern kansas into the ozarks on
thursday.
...synopsis...
embedded waves within a predominately zonal flow pattern and broad
westerly flow aloft will extend across the central rockies into the
central/southern plains on d3/thursday. at the surface, a low will
deepen and shift eastward across western texas into eastern oklahoma
with attendant frontal boundary extending eastward across northern
oklahoma into the missouri and ohio valley.
...northern oklahoma/southern kansas into the ozarks...
thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of the period
across portions of southern kansas into northern oklahoma as a
shortwave trough rotates through the pattern. afternoon thunderstorm
development will focus along the residual outflow/frontal boundary.
guidance suggests that though residual cloud cover may remain behind
the morning convection, strong heating/destabilization should occur
near the two boundaries into the afternoon. strong deep layer shear
around 40-50 kts should support supercell modes with potential for
large to very large hail and damaging wind. with the deepening of
the surface low, a southwesterly low-level jet will increase to
around 40-50 kts into the afternoon/evening, which will enlarge
low-level hodographs and lead to increasing tornado potential. there
remains some uncertainty in the exact axis and strength of the
low-level jet at this time.
...central/northern high plains...
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop with the combination
of easterly upslope flow and upper-level forcing for ascent across
portions of eastern wyoming/colorado. moderate instability and
strong deep layer shear will support supercells capable of large to
very large hail and damaging wind. storms will eventually cluster
and move eastward, with potential for a few instances of damaging
wind into western ne/ks.
..thornton.. 06/23/2026
click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product
note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z