spc ac 271930
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0230 pm cdt wed may 27 2026
valid 291200z - 301200z
...there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across western
montana...the central high plains...and the southern high plains
into southern arkansas and northern louisiana....
...summary...
isolated to scattered storms may produce large hail from eastern new
mexico and western texas into southern arkansas and northern
louisiana on friday. strong to severe storms may also occur across
western montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. damaging
thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across portions of the
central high plains.
...synopsis...
a closed low across the great basin will become an open wave and
start to advance northeast toward the central rockies. as this
occurs, lee troughing will begin across the southern and central
high plains and into eastern montana. a strong mid-level trough will
move southward across eastern canada into the northeast.
...western montana...
weak to moderate instability will build across western montana on
friday as dewpoints increase into the mid 50s and mid-level
temperatures cool. mid-level flow is forecast to increase to 30 to
40 knots across western montana which will provide sufficient shear
for storm organization. the marginal risk was expanded slightly to
account for the likely extent of the threat given the 12z guidance.
...central plains...
surface moisture is forecast to back up near the terrain across
northern colorado and southeast wyoming. this will lead to weak to
moderate instability across the region. in addition to typical
terrain circulations, guidance suggests a weak mid-level shortwave
trough may emerge across the region and provide additional support
for storm development. shear is forecast to remain relatively weak,
but weak to moderate instability, and steep lapse rates will support
some threat for severe wind gusts.
...southern plains into southern arkansas and northern louisiana...
a southern stream mid-level jet streak is forecast to emerge from
northern mexico into the southern high plains. this ~40 knot jet
streak will overspread portions of the southern high plains and the
dryline. this should provide ample shear for storm organization
during the afternoon/evening. greater storm coverage and severe
potential may exist between midland and lubbock at the nose of this
stronger mid-level flow. however, there is still some uncertainty
with the timing/location of this jet streak, so will not add higher
probabilities at this time.
added 5% probabilities farther east across oklahoma and into
southern arkansas and northern louisiana. moderate instability is
expected south of a frontal zone in this general area. this may be a
focus for storm development friday afternoon/evening. shear may be
somewhat weak, but the instability and frontal focus could support a
few strong to severe storms.
..bentley.. 05/27/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z