spc ac 251926
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0226 pm cdt thu jun 25 2026
valid 271200z - 281200z
...there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
the northern plains and across portions of the mid-atlantic...
...summary...
severe storms are likely across portions of eastern montana and
western north dakota on saturday. severe storms will also be
possible from the mid-mississippi valley to virginia and the
carolinas.
...synopsis...
a mid-level trough across the western us will ejected across the
northern rockies, with strong mid-level flow overspreading the high
plains on d3/saturday. in response, a surface low across eastern
montana will deepen with strengthening southerly flow into the high
plains. a secondary surface low will move eastward across the ohio
valley into the mid-atlantic through the period.
...northern plains...
as southerly flow increases with the deepening surface cyclone
across eastern montana, mid 60s dew points will surge northward into
portions of the northern high plains. guidance suggests that a
narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place
ahead of the surface low across portions of eastern montana into the
western/central dakotas. additionally, a plume of steep low to
mid-level lapse rates will push northward through morning/afternoon.
thunderstorm activity is expected first across the high terrain in
eastern montana/northern wyoming. it is likely that as this moves
into the lower elevations, it will cluster and grow upscale into one
or more clusters/mcs moving north and east into the dakotas through
the afternoon/evening. these may be further supported by the
increasing low-level jet into the evening, with potential to
produce damaging wind (perhaps some significant 70+ mph). higher
probabilities may be warranted with additional information/higher
confidence in corridors of damaging wind potential.
...mid-mississippi valley to the carolinas and virginia...
widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along
a front extending from the mid-atlantic back into the southern ohio
valley. flow is expected to be generally weak with modest shear.
guidance suggests that moderate to strong buoyancy will develop
across the region amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. despite
weaker shear profiles, this may support a few organized clusters
capable of damaging winds/wet downbursts.
a more favorable corridor for wind will exist from north carolina
into virginia. here a shortwave trough will move eastward with a
modest increase in mid-level flow and deep layer shear. this may
support potential for a more organized line of thunderstorms to
shift eastward to the coastline. forecast soundings indicate steep
low-level lapse rates will be in place across this region, further
supporting potential for downward momentum transport. a slight risk
was added across this area to cover this potential.
..thornton.. 06/25/2026
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note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 0730z