spc ac 150815
day 3 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0215 am cst mon dec 15 2025
valid 171200z - 181200z
...no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...summary...
a few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the texas coastal plain
wednesday morning. scattered thunderstorms are possible early
thursday morning from the ozarks to the lower ohio river valley.
...synopsis...
a strong mid-level jet streak and associated shortwave trough over
the pacific northwest on wednesday morning will move quickly across
the rockies and amplify as it enters the plains late wednesday into
early thursday morning. a very strong surface low, associated with
this fast-moving trough, will move from british columbia wednesday
morning to the upper midwest by early thursday morning.
a few thunderstorms may persist early wednesday within a region of
weak isentropic ascent across east texas. however, as the low-level
jet veers/weakens, this threat is expected to wane. high pressure
will continue to dominate much of the daytime period across the
eastern conus which should limit any thunderstorm potential.
however, by wednesday night, thunderstorm potential is expected to
increase from the texas coastal plain to the lower ohio river
valley. as the mid-level trough amplifies across the plains, a
low-level jet will rapidly strengthen from east texas to the ozarks.
this will advect low-level moisture northward during the evening.
after 06z, weak to potentially moderate elevated instability is
expected within a broad region of weak isentropic ascent from
arkansas to southern illinois. effective shear (based on an elevated
parcel) is expected to remain very weak early thursday morning as
the primary mid-level jet streak is not forecast to emerge over the
warm sector until later thursday morning. therefore, no severe
weather is anticipated on day 3/wednesday.
..bentley.. 12/15/2025
click to get wuus03 ptsdy3 product
note: the next day 3 outlook is scheduled by 1930z