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day 4-8 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0326 am cst wed feb 19 2020

valid 221200z - 271200z

...discussion...
an upper low/trough near the southern ca coast early on day 4/sat
will progress eastward across the plains by day 6/mon, and lift
east/northeast toward the atlantic coast late in the period. at the
surface, a lee cyclone is expected to develop over the
central/southern high plains late on day 4/sat as the upper trough
ejects eastward toward the southern rockies. by day 5/sun the
surface low is expected to continue deepening as it progresses
eastward across the southern plains. strong southerly return flow
ahead of the deepening surface low will bring modest boundary layer
moisture northward across eastern tx/ok on sunday. however,
persistent strong surface high pressure over the southeast in the
days prior, and a cold front expected to dive deep into the southern
gulf/northern caribbean on day 2-3/thu-fri, will limit
higher-quality moisture return. some thunderstorm activity will be
possible on sunday across parts of ok/tx ahead of the low and
attendant cold front, but severe potential appears too uncertain/low
probability to include probs at this time.

as the surface low and cold front progress eastward across the
southeastern states on day 6/mon, modest moisture return will bring
increasing thunderstorm potential to the region, though the quality
of the warm sector, and as a result, severe potential, remains
questionable. beyond day 6/mon, medium range guidance has
considerable spread in the eastward evolution of another shortwave
trough developing over the western u.s., though severe potential
appears limited at this time.

..leitman.. 02/19/2020

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