zczc spcswod48 all
acus48 kwns 130959
spc ac 130959
day 4-8 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0359 am cst fri feb 13 2026
valid 161200z - 211200z
...discussion...
it appears that a blocking high/ridge may be maintained across the
southern mid-latitude east central pacific (roughly near 150w
longitude) through next week. downstream, the evolution of an
increasingly prominent mid-level high is forecast across the gulf
basin through bahamas/caribbean vicinity by the end of next week.
however, developments within the branching westerlies across and
inland of the pacific coast remain more unclear, particularly
subsequent to some initial consolidation of mid-level troughing near
the u.s. pacific coast by early next week.
shorter wavelength perturbations emerging from this cyclonic regime
are generally forecast to progress across and east-northeast of the
rockies, contributing to periodic lee cyclogenesis. the timing of
potentially stronger cyclogenesis has varied within and among the
various model output, including one possible developing cyclone
across the central great plains into portions of the great lakes and
ohio valley during the early into middle portion of next week.
regardless of the strength, however, guidance has been consistent
indicating that limited warm sector boundary-layer moisture return
will probably tend to inhibit severe thunderstorm development.
subsequent, renewed (potentially strong) surface cyclogenesis
appears possible to the lee of the rockies later next week. model
spread by that time is notable, but an increasing moist southerly
return flow off the gulf does appear probable, around the western
flank of the subtropical ridge.
..kerr.. 02/13/2026
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