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zczc spcswod48 all
acus48 kwns 220851
spc ac 220851

day 4-8 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0351 am cdt wed mar 22 2023

valid 251200z - 301200z

...discussion...
medium-range guidance is in good agreement that broadly cyclonic
flow aloft will be in place over the conus early d4/saturday. strong
southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to spread eastward across the
central appalachians into the mid-atlantic as a mid-latitude cyclone
deepens and moves through the upper great lakes. at the same time,
low-level moisture is expected to spread northward across the
carolinas and into the mid-atlantic. some overlap between this
strong upper flow and increasing low-level moisture is possible,
supporting the potential for a few stronger thunderstorms. however,
predictability regarding the overall storm severity and coverage is
low.

farther west, another shortwave trough is expected to move across
from the southern high plains through ok/ks and into the mid ms
valley on d5/sunday. an associated surface low will likely move
across ok and the ozark plateau towards the lower oh valley. this
overall evolution will foster moisture return and a broad warm-air
advection regime across the lower ms valley and southeast states.
environmental conditions support strong to severe thunderstorms, but
uncertainty regarding severe coverage precludes introducing any
probabilities with this outlook.

an active pattern will likely persist into early next week, but
variability within the guidance results in low forecast confidence
and limited predictability.

..mosier.. 03/22/2023

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