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zczc spcswod48 all
acus48 kwns 120818
spc ac 120818

day 4-8 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0218 am cst mon nov 12 2018

valid 151200z - 201200z

...discussion...
severe thunderstorm area will not be delineated this period.

12/00z medium-range models agree a strong upper trough will dig into
tx during the day1 period; however, trough progression beyond day2
becomes problematic as forecast scenarios differ considerably. the
most progressive fv3-gfs ejects the upper trough into the central
appalachians by 18z day4, while the ecmwf/canadian hold a strong
upper low back near mem at the same time. beyond day4, models are in
general agreement that this feature should eventually migrate off
the new england coast by this weekend. with a wedge front expected
to hold east of the appalachians, any cyclogenesis induced by this
feature will likely do so very near the carolina coast, or just
offshore. predictability will remain low until these issues can be
resolved.

..darrow.. 11/12/2018

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