zczc spcswod48 all
acus48 kwns 250843
spc ac 250843
day 4-8 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0343 am cdt mon may 25 2026
valid 281200z - 021200z
...discussion...
...d4/thursday through d5/friday...
the western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with
the northern jet stream d4/thursday - d5/friday. there is low
confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details
on moisture, across the intermountain west and northern rockies.
guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and
weak disturbances rotate across the rockies, lee troughing across
the plains may strengthen d5/friday, bringing a potential for low
end severe risk into the central/northern high plains. for now
confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low.
a cold front will sag southward across the east coast d4/thursday
through d5/friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across
quebec southward into the eastern great lakes. some low end severe
potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but
uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better
moisture/instability.
...d6/saturday through d8/monday...
toward the end of next weekend d7/sunday through d8/monday, ensemble
guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to
build in across the central/western us with rising heights and
warming temperatures. building surface high pressure across the
midwest/great lakes may shunt moisture southward to the gulf states.
should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain
low through much of the conus.
..thornton.. 05/25/2026
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