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day 4-8 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0347 am cdt sat aug 24 2019

valid 271200z - 011200z

medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a cold front will
extend from the upper great lakes into the southern plains at the
beginning of the period (12z tuesday). showers and thunderstorms are
possible along this front as it moves eastward/southeastward on
d4/tuesday and d5/wednesday but severe potential is expected to be
mitigated by the displacement between the better shear (north) and
the better low-level moisture and buoyancy (south).

ridging in the wake of this front is expected to dominate the
sensible weather across the eastern conus on d6/thursday but the
pattern is more uncertain across the central conus due to model
inconsistencies. after d6/thursday, growing model differences lead
to low forecast confidence, although the persistent moisture across
the central and southeastern conus suggests severe thunderstorms
remain possible.

..mosier.. 08/24/2019

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