zczc spcswod48 all
acus48 kwns 050936
spc ac 050936
day 4-8 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0336 am cst wed feb 05 2025
valid 081200z - 131200z
...discussion...
medium-range global models appear to be in reasonable large-scale
agreement into the first half of day 6 (monday). at this point,
more substantial differences begin to emerge with respect to the
amplification of the flow field across the u.s., as the main western
u.s. trough begins a slow eastward advance. these differences are
significant in that speed and timing of the advance of this system
will influence surface cyclogenesis along what has been a
persistent, roughly west-to-east baroclinic zone across the
south-central and southeastern conus. stronger/inland low
development along this front would potential bring an increase in
severe-weather potential, but this scenario is far too uncertain at
this point to highlight through the second half of the period.
earlier in the period, a frontal low along the surface baroclinic
zone is forecast to shift out of the oklahoma vicinity, and
east-northeastward across the ohio valley area day 4, before
reaching the southern new england coastal vicinity by the start of
day 5. however, very weak warm-sector instability is expected at
this time, which should preclude severe risk. as the low deepens
northward into the canadian maritimes, the trailing cold front
should settle back into its recently persistent position from the
southern plains to the southeast, and remain there into the day 6
period ahead of the advancing western upper trough. again, with
weak instability near the boundary and southward into the warm
sector, severe weather is not expected.
..goss.. 02/05/2025
click to get wuus48 ptsd48 product