md 0218 concerning severe thunderstorm watch 27... for portions of northern/central ky...central/eastern oh...and far western pa
mesoscale discussion 0218
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0726 pm cdt thu mar 14 2019
areas affected...portions of northern/central ky...central/eastern
oh...and far western pa
concerning...severe thunderstorm watch 27...
valid 150026z - 150200z
the severe weather threat for severe thunderstorm watch 27
summary...isolated severe threat will continue across eastern
portions of severe thunderstorm watch 27 for the next hour or so.
downstream watch issuance into more of eastern oh is unlikely at
discussion...a 75-100+ kt southwesterly mid-level jet is beginning
to overspread northern ky and oh this evening. a very strong 50-65+
kt south-southwesterly low-level jet is also shifting eastward
across the same region. strongly veering winds through mid levels
associated with both jets are resulting in 50-75+ kt of effective
bulk shear. organized, rotating updrafts have been detected on radar
within the ongoing small clusters and bowing line segments across oh
into northern ky. mainly wind damage and occasional severe wind
gusts have been reported over the past hour or two given the largely
linear mode and steepened low-level lapse rates from diurnal
heating. these thunderstorms are beginning to outpace the low-level
moisture return, especially across eastern oh where surface
dewpoints generally remain in the upper 40s to around 50. current
expectations are for the ongoing isolated severe threat to continue
for another hour or so before gradually diminishing due to the lack
of sufficient instability to support surface-based thunderstorms.
therefore, downstream watch issuance into eastern oh appears
unlikely at this time.
...please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
lat...lon 37708521 37878552 38228565 39048467 39498334 39818287
40158238 40628163 40988158 41488119 41628052 41488022
40918034 40428090 39378227 38618329 37728472 37708521