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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
301 am edt mon apr 22 2019

.discussion...

highs of 75-80 in n il along the eastern periphery of the incoming
h85 thermal ridge are a good first cut for forecast highs in se
michigan today. backed surface wind will suppress mixing heights
east of the glacial ridge and in the immediate lake shadows where
highs will be limited to 50s along the immediate shoreline improving
to 60s further inland. otherwise mid 70s expected under mostly sunny
skies with modest filtering of sun from high clouds. unmodified
fetch and downsloping has the warmest forecast points in the saginaw
valley where 80 will be achievable. the bulk of convective debris
will remain west during the daylight hours. axis of modest elevated
instability will sweep through the area roughly 09-14z accompanied
by shallow moisture and decent dynamic support mainly north of i-69
with weaker forcing and veered flow to the south. nothing more than
a chc pop during this period to account for a partial coverage of
weak updrafts, a few of which may produce a rumble of thunder early
tues. cold advection and confluent nw flow aloft will scour out
clouds from west to east on tuesday, supporting full sun to end the
day as h85 temps fall toward 0c. insolation will be sufficient to
limit temperature falls until at least mid-aftn before quickly
falling through the 60s, 50s, and eventually 40s overnight.
unremarkable pattern from mid-week onward as zonal mean baroclinic
westerlies continue to retreat north, supporting occl low
predictability precip chances as temperatures oscillate about
climatology.

&&

.marine...

mostly favorable marine conditions with no significant wind events
expected during the upcoming week. moderate breeze out of the se
will pick up today in advance of an approaching low pressure system.
this low will track through the straits by tuesday morning, sending
a cold front across the region during the daylight period. this
frontal boundary will bring a chance of thunderstorms during this
time. southerly winds veering to northwesterly with the frontal
passage, briefly reaching 20 to 25 knots at times. modest northwest
winds will prevail through wednesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1157 pm edt sun apr 21 2019

aviation...

vfr conditions through much of monday with high static stability
from the surface through 10 kft agl. varying mid to high cloud
anticipated tonight and likely through monday with anticyclonic wave
break region setting up over the western great lakes. light and
variable winds tonight will emerge light southerly monday.
precipitation associated with next low pressure system will remain
upstream until monday night as flow will be slow to become cyclonic.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...jvc
marine.......mr
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.