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fxus63 kdtx 202021

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
321 pm est wed feb 20 2019


shower activity is expected to increase during the remainder of the
afternoon and persist into early/mid evening as occluded frontal
boundary pivots northeast through the region around low pressure
center positioned over the upper mississippi river valley. with
temperatures still at or below freezing in most locations through
the mid/late afternoon hours, still foresee some chance of minor
icing across the area in/around the evening commute.

this will be especially true from around the m-59 corridor north
where precipitation coverage will be greatest and late day
temperatures the coldest. will hold on to the winter weather
advisory to cover the evening commute period as the loss of daytime
solar insolation will coincide with this renewed push of shower
activity and favor some ice accumulation on untreated surfaces.

precipitation will come to an end quickly during the evening as a
mid level dry slot works through the area in wake of passing front.
temperatures will actually edge up into the middle 30s during the
last half of the evening before dropping back off into the mid/upper
20s overnight as the aforementioned low tracks through the northern
great lakes and brings colder air back into the region on gusty west

the remainder of the week will be rather quiet as high pressure
builds into the region. remaining gusty winds thursday morning will
ease during the day as this high approaches with light winds under
the center of this system on friday. highs both days will range in
the 30s with no notable weather of which to speak.

prevailing regime over north america will remain unchanged through
the weekend. the next round of energy is already digging
aggressively south. the attendant jet streak is considerably
stronger than what was observed with current wave lifting through
southeast michigan at the same point in its development sequence,
and there is strong consensus among the nwp that it will contract in
scale and considerably strengthen as it lifts north along roughly
the same track on saturday night through sunday. on the front end,
nothing more than rain showers with some embedded thunder followed
by another aggressive dry slot intrusion. however, the modeled
strength of the cyclone, the strength of the trailing arctic high
sliding south along the lee of the rockies, and expectation for at
least moderate cold advection, lends itself toward wind on the upper
end of climatology developing on sunday. inherited blended grids
featuring sustained winds around 30 mph with gusts to 45 to 50 mph
are a decent start given the 96 hour lead time. no changes needed.



an area of low pressure over the western great lakes will track
northeast through the straits tonight. gusty easterly flow will veer
through southeast this evening, becoming strong out of the west
behind a passing front. these westerly gusts will likely reach 30
knots for a period late tonight into thursday. this is especially
true across northern lake huron where funneling typically occurs
with westerly flow and may result in some brief gust to gales. high
pressure will build across the region thursday night through friday
night bringing more favorable marine conditions. the next strong low
pressure system is forecast to lift through the region for the
second half of the weekend presenting a risk for high end gales,
with lower end gales potentially lingering into monday.


.prev discussion...
issued at 1217 pm est wed feb 20 2019


precipitation has been slow to transpire through the late morning
hours as dry easterly flow has been too much to over come.
temperature profile is becoming more favorable for fzdz as low level
moisture bleeds slowly northward and mid levels dry out but
observations have been patchy at best over the last couple hours.
will keep with that thought and just go with a tempo for fzdz for a
couple hours until deeper moisture arrives around 20-21z. by then
temperatures are expected to warm enough to change ptype to all rain
with the exception being mbs which make keep a rain/snow mix. mainly
ifr cigs through the overnight with a period of lifr possible with
the heavier showers this evening. winds will veer from the east to
southeast this afternoon before flipping to westerly behind a
passing cold front later this evening. westerly wind gusts may reach
25 to 30 knots for a period tonight immediately behind the cold
front and then subside through the morning hours.

for dtw...remains a chance for some freezing drizzle over the next
few hours but confidence is decreasing due to the amount of dry air
still present. precipitation type will changeover to rain after
about 20z. east winds today of 15 knots today become west 25 to 30
knots after 05z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less today and tonight.

* moderate for ptype of freezing drizzle before 20z and rain after


.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for miz047>049-

winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for miz075-076-

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.



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