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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
530 am est sun dec 10 2023


low vfr/high mvfr clouds should remain in place through tomorrow
morning as cold west-northwest flow persists. although confidence
does diminish overnight into monday morning, and certaintly could
see some clearing.

a surface trough swinging through this afternoon will likely trigger
widely scattered snow/rain showers, trending straight snow by the
end of the day. a very brief interval of ifr vsby possible. little
in the way of accumulation expected with temperatures solidly above
freezing through mid evening. a slight chance of snow showers (~15
percent) persists overnight which could lead to a coating of snow.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet through this evening,
then medium-low.

* high for precip type being rain/melting snow today becoming
straight snow in evening and beyond.


.prev discussion...
issued at 301 am est sun dec 10 2023


an upper wave now churning over eastern wisconsin will dampen as it
lifts across northern lower mi this morning. secondary mid level
short wave energy trailing this initial wave will advance across se
mi late this afternoon/evening and will maintain broader mid level
troughing across the great lakes region through tonight. while there
is ongoing post frontal low level cold air advection this morning,
the rate of cooling in the boundary layer is being tempered by
increasing low level mixing/steepening lapse rates. this will result
in a slow drop in sfc temps into the mid/upper 30s today. growing
depth of cold air across the lakes will continue to activate the
lake effect today. the westerly flow will veer toward northwest
today, which will limit the extent of lake effect into se mi. the
wave lifting across the northern lakes this morning will drive a sfc
trough into se mi early this afternoon. convective cloud depths may
however struggle to activate ice nucleation, limiting precip
potential. cloud depths will increase late in the afternoon and
evening as the secondary short wave drives colder 850mb temps into
the area. this will increase chances for ice nucleation in the clouds
and suggests scattered/30 percent chance of showers within the
backdrop of mid level height falls. boundary layer temps and wet bulb
zero heights suggest precip type will be rain/melting snow this
afternoon and wet snow this evening, with the expected
coverage/intensity suggesting little to no impacts.

with the mid level trough passing east of the area on monday, mid
level confluence/subsidence will expand across lower mi. there is
likely to be ample lake clouds trapped under a deepening low level
inversion, with the clouds holding temps in the 30s. the low level
flow will back toward the southwest late monday/monday night,
driving a warmer and drier low level airmass into se mi which will
promote a clearing trend. despite this, nocturnal cooling will be
limited by the strengthening gradient.

an upper level low forecast to rotate from central canada into
northern ontario on tuesday will drive a cold front across the great
lakes. this front is forecast to weekend as moves south into the
more zonal flow across the southern lakes. lack of moisture depth
along this boundary suggest the main impacts will likely be an
increase in clouds and a slight cooling trend by mid week. expansive
high pressure will affect much of the eastern us by the end of the
week and will ensure a dry forecast to end the work week.


cold air advection is settling into the region with another cold
front expected to move through the region today. winds will turn out
of the northwest this afternoon with in the wake of the front, which
will also bring increasing waves and lake effect snow showers across
lake huron through today. wind gusts approach 30 knots and will
continue to maintain higher wave action across outer saginaw bay and
northern portions of the thumb. this will keep small craft
advisories in effect through today as waves build into across
central and southern lake huron. brief lull in stronger winds
expected monday with mainly 25 knots or below before another strong
low pressure system swings across northern ontario and hudson bay
late monday night into early tuesday. this system will send another
cold front through the region and another round of potential gales,
mainly across lake huron, with the southwest to west winds beginning
tuesday morning.


.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.



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