940
fxus63 kdtx 271749
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
149 pm edt sun apr 27 2025
.key messages...
- an early week warming trend carries temperatures into the 70s
monday and into the 80s tuesday.
- showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms late monday
night and tuesday morning.
- there is another chance of thunderstorms late tuesday and tuesday
evening, a few of which could approach severe intensity, as a strong
cold front moves through the region.
- dry and cooler by wednesday.
&&
.aviation...
high pressure centered over lower mi will result in light and
variable winds through the day with only a few cirrus. center of the
high drifts off to the east tonight bringing about a southeasterly
wind tonight. clear skies remain on monday bust winds will gust to
around 20 knots.
.dtw threshold probabilities...
* none
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 320 am edt sun apr 27 2025
discussion...
an anticyclone in the low to mid levels will be centered over se mi
today, driving large scale subsidence across the region. deep layer
dry air will support full sun. with some slight rebound in the low
level thermal fields and forecast mixing depths near 5k feet,
afternoon highs will rebound into the 60s. the weak gradient flow
will drive lake breeze boundaries inland, supportive of cooler
readings by the lakes. the anticyclone will gradually shift east,
becoming centered over the mid atlantic on monday. while some high
based clouds advance across the region, ample low level dry air will
continue to circulate around the high and across se mi. the
southerly gradient will increase across the region monday and will
drive warmer air into lower mi with 925mb temps projected to rise
into the teens. ample solar insolation will thus support highs into
the 70s.
a progressive positively tilted mid level trough is forecast to
track across the northern plains and upper midwest mon/mon night,
then across the northern great lakes tuesday. strengthening deep
layer southwest flow in advance of this wave will drive gulf
moisture into the region, resulting in an increasingly unstable
environment across se mi. an initial influx of mid level warm air
advection mon night/tues morning will be accompanied by increasing
mid level moisture. this will arrive within a deep elevated mixed
layer, supporting 0-3km mu cape up to 1000-1500 j/kg. this will
warrant at least a chance of elevated convection. with forecast 700-
500mb lapse of 7.5 to 8.5 c/km, large hail will be of concern.
the timing of the cold front and prefrontal instability axis on
tuesday carries some degree of uncertainty at this stage in the
forecast. within the envelop of ensemble members, the instability
axis tues afternoon will either encompass all of se mi or be
situated across the eastern half of the forecast area and points
southeast. model soundings suggest that frontal convergence and
daytime heating/instability will have some degree of mid level
capping to overcome. those solutions that are a little more
progressive with a more easterly displaced instability axis suggest
that convective initiation tuesday may not occur until the front is
east of the forecast area as limited frontal convergence over se mi
struggles to break the cap. this trend has also been depicted in the
spc day3 outlook which just clips monroe county with a marginal
severe risk. despite the uncertainty at this stage in the forecast,
the advective component will have the potential to drive daytime
temps into the upper 70s to low 80s with sfc dewpoints into the 60s
assuming an afternoon cold frontal passage. with good cape density
noted on model soundings and 0-6km bulk shear values of 45 to 60
knots, subsequent model trends will have to be monitored as a later
frontal passage with better convergence would still pose a severe wx
risk. cooler and much drier air will then advance back into the
region by wednesday as canadian high pressure expand across the great
lakes in the wake of tuesdays cold frontal passage.
marine...
broad high pressure settles across the region today offering light
and variable winds with abundant sunshine early giving way to high
clouds late. dry weather holds through monday with milder southerly
flow commencing as low pressure develops over the midwest. this
system will track across the northern lakes late monday into
tuesday, sending a warm front through tuesday morning before the
cold front follows later in the day. the warm air arriving over the
cool lakes will result in strong atmospheric stability and limit
wind magnitude to a degree, but periods of gusty 25+ kt wind will be
likely, especially in the nearshore areas. a 40 percent chance
exists for a brief period of gusts to gales over saginaw bay.
scattered thunderstorms are expected to accompany the system`s cold
front on tuesday with potential for some strong to severe storms in
the south. a period of gusty northwest wind follows the system
tuesday night before high pressure builds back in on wednesday.
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
aviation.....drk
discussion...sc
marine.......tf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.