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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1158 pm est tue dec 7 2021


weak lift with an upper-level disturbance will aid in the production
of light snow early wednesday morning with the best forcing focused
form ptk north. will maintain prevailing snow during the pre-dawn
hours within this area with tempo group for i-94 where coverage of
light snow will be more iffy. any snow that materializes is expected
to progress east to northeast out of the region after 12z.

for dtw...flurries/light snow will be possible late tonight as upper
wave crosses the area. ceilings may drop to 5kft or so with this
activity, but remain vfr. sct-bkn stratus near 5kft will then
persist during the day with a clearing trend by evening as surface
trough passes.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium in ceilings at or below 5000 ft on wednesday.


.prev discussion...
issued at 350 pm est tue dec 7 2021


broad upper level confluence aloft has led to 1023mb surface ridging
extending northward out of the ohio river valley. a cold day across
southeast michigan today with afternoon temperatures running in the
low to mid 20s areawide. the values are roughly 15 degrees below
seasonal averages.

entrance region to upper level jet will remain progressive sliding
into the central and eastern great lakes by 06z tonight. a quick
action in pseudo-zonal flow will cause a potential vorticity trough
to pivot through southeast michigan between 06-18z. absolute
cyclonic vorticity within the trough is very disorganized which
brings bulk of synoptic scale forcing in the initial geopotential
height falls 06-12z tonight. really kind of tricky on where to
settle with the pops late tonight. the overarching problem is the
forecasted uvvs/omega is very weak tonight. qualitatively, the best of
the system relative isentropic ascent appears to be early this
evening between 00-06z, which will be necessary to moisten/saturate
the column. soundings look adequate for snow generation with
saturation wrt ice through the dgz but again limited omega. while
the operational ecmwf is showing a widespread couple hundredths of
liquid equivalent, a tendency metric from time lagged models
including hrrr/rap runs has shown a strong decreasing trends for
pops overnight. for a more consistent forecast with neighbors and
given the consensus of the hires solutions, did lower pops into the
chance category between 6-12z. the high confidence portion of this
event is that snow amounts will be limited to a couple of tenths or a
dusting. the issue is that with temperatures in the low 20s that any
moisture on roadways may result in icy conditions for the wednesday
morning commute.

weak disturbance will track into ontario/quebec wednesday before
ridging extends back across all of southeast michigan wednesday
night. strong differential height rises will lead to warming and
temperatures rising into the middle to upper 30s thursday. southern
stream energy is forecasted to cross over tracking through southeast
michigan thursday night. really no question on ptype given the
sounding with a cold profile and elevated frontal surface through
the dgz. strong anticyclonic curvature to trajectories will limit
ascent over southeast michigan but models are consistent with
widespread light snow north of i 69.

models showing great continuity with dynamic winter storm system
next weekend. way too early to discuss much on details, but high
confidence exists for this far out that southeast michigan will
remain within the warm sector of the this system. an extreme low
level jet setup with +50 knots at 850mb may bring some elevated
thunder. windy conditions to follow saturday and saturday night.


high pressure has spread across the area resulting in west-southwest
winds with gusts holding below 20 knots. this has allowed the high
waves from last night to continue to subside through the day. a pair
of weak systems will merge over the straits tonight and consolidate
into a single low which will ridge over the ridge into ontario
wednesday morning. this will result in a several hour period of
light snow tonight after midnight. wind speeds will change little
from this system but directions will veer to the northwest on
wednesday behind a trough axis. a stronger upper level trough will
track across the plains wednesday and approach the great lakes
thursday. this will bring increasing winds out of the southeast.


.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.



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