981
fxus63 kdtx 151051
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
651 am edt wed apr 15 2026
.key messages...
-persistent flood risk: a flood watch remains in effect through
thursday night as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms cross
a stalled frontal boundary. previous rainfall has saturated soils,
making the region highly susceptible to additional runoff.
-severe potential: a marginal to slight risk for severe
thunderstorms exists this afternoon and evening, with another
isolated threat focused toward the michigan/ohio border on thursday.
the primary hazard remains damaging wind gusts within any organized
convection.
-dry friday followed by a cold weekend: conditions dry out briefly
on friday before a strong cold front brings rain and possible
thunderstorms on saturday. the weekend concludes on a windy and much
colder note sunday, with temperatures plunging into the 40s.
&&
.aviation...
active weather continues today with multiple chances of showers and
thunderstorms yet again. first chance comes at the start of the
forecast as band of showers stretches across southern mi from about
ptk southward. convection coming off lake mi at press time will
track east through the early morning bringing a chance of
thunderstorms from about 13-16z. fnt and mbs may just get showers
out of it. early afternoon another cluster looks to track through
the detroit area. tonight has the best chance of another more
widespread convection from about 03-07z. clouds will largely be vfr
in between the clusters until tonight when mvfr/ifr clouds try to
fill in. winds will be predominately southwest around 10 knots
through the period.
dtw/d21 convection...multiple round of convection may impact the
airport today and tonight. first chance is at the start of the
forecast. then again around 19-21z and the possibly strongest storms
will pass through around 03-07z. each cluster may impact positioning
of future clusters so amendments are likely today.
.dtw threshold probabilities...
* medium for ceilings aob 5000 ft this morning outside of
convection. high tonight.
* medium for thunderstorms today and tonight. low for timing the
multiple clusters.
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 413 am edt wed apr 15 2026
discussion...
a stalled-out frontal boundary remains draped across southern lower
michigan early this morning. water vapor imagery reveals at least
two distinct upper-level waves currently over the plains that are
progged to work through the great lakes region through thursday
night.
the 00z rrfs and 00z 3km nam both provided a reasonable depiction of
the convective line that rolled through southeast michigan earlier
this morning. however, notable differences remain regarding the
timing and extent of redevelopment today. leaning toward the rrfs
solution, expect a brief lull by mid-morning as the initial wave
exits. this reprieve will be short-lived, as high-resolution
guidance suggests rapid airmass recovery by early afternoon. with
sbcape progged to rebound into the 1000 - 1500 j/kg range amidst 40-
knot bulk shear, additional discrete cells or multicell clusters are
favored to develop along residual outflow boundaries. the day 1 spc
outlook maintains a slight risk for southern areas, with damaging
wind being the primary hazard.
the rrfs remains aggressive for thursday as well, highlighting a
secondary mid-level trough lifting into the great lakes. this
feature will provide stronger synoptic forcing for widespread,
efficient precipitation. relief finally arrives on friday as a
transitory period of mid-level ridging and surface high pressure
provides a much-needed reprieve from the active weather.
attention then turns to a potent longwave trough ejecting out of the
pacific northwest and arriving over the weekend. a deepening surface
low is progged to track through the upper mississippi valley on
friday, dragging a cold front through southeast michigan on saturday
(most likely during the early afternoon per the 00z euro). any delay
in frontal timing could allow for stronger southwest winds ahead of
the boundary, with gusts potentially reaching 40 mph given the 40 -
50 knot jet at 850 mb. while widespread showers may help limit
instability - keeping mucape values under 1000 j/kg - the strong
wind fields will maintain a marginal severe threat.
post-frontal cold air advection (caa) looks robust for the tail end
of the weekend, with 850 mb temperatures bottoming out around -10c
by sunday morning. breezy to windy conditions will make for a "raw"
day, as highs struggle to exit the 40s under a persistent deck of
stratocumulus. steep low level lapse rates will also support
isolated to possibly scattered rain or snow showers through sunday
afternoon.
marine...
overnight showers and thunderstorms depart this morning while an
unsettled pattern remains in place today and thursday. additional
rounds of showers and storms are possible throughout the day, with
similar strong to severe concerns as the past few days. localized
winds in excess of 35 knots, erratic waves, and large hail will all
be possible. familiar wind pattern today and thursday as the warm
front holds near saginaw bay, causing winds to back toward the east
north of the front. some relief to the wet pattern is expected
friday before another low ripples through saturday, drawing a strong
cold front across the region. this will elevate winds on a more
widespread basis compared to the more localized wind potential in
thunderstorm activity through the work week.
hydrology...
rainfall totals up to 2 inches were observed earlier this morning
across portions of the m-59 corridor and the saginaw valley. given
this antecedent rainfall and already saturated soils from a wet
spring, the flood watch remains in effect for all of southeast
michigan through thursday night. significant rises are expected on
regional waterways, with the tittabawassee and saginaw rivers
forecast to reach flood stage; the shiawassee river also remains a
point of concern for potential flooding.
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue
intermittently through thursday evening. while broad-scale
forecasted rainfall totals today through thursday are generally
around 1 inch, which typically would not trigger widespread
flooding. any focused areas of convection could significantly over-
perform. the primary concern is for thunderstorms to "train" over
the same localized areas, leading to much higher rainfall totals and
a heightened risk for flash flooding. confidence in the exact timing
and placement of these heavier corridors remains low, but the
overall environment remains highly conducive to efficient rainfall
rates.
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...flood watch through late thursday night for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
aviation.....drk
discussion...sf
marine.......mv
hydrology....sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.