178
fxus63 kdtx 301706
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
106 pm edt thu jul 30 2026
.key messages...
- warming trend today and friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
- scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms expected
friday evening through saturday.
- dry weather returns early next week with warming temperatures
approaching 90 degrees by mid week.
&&
.aviation...
vfr conditions, dry weather, and light winds will persist into
tomorrow as the upper-level ridge currently in place slowly breaks
down and exits east. aside from diurnal afternoon vfr cumulus, low to
mid-level clouds will be scarce over the next 24 hours.
d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms through tomorrow afternoon.
.dtw threshold probabilities...
* none.
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 309 am edt thu jul 30 2026
discussion...
satellite imagery this morning shows clear skies stretching from the
mississippi river valley to the appalachians as high pressure stays
in control. 00z upper air observations have started to show the
thermal ridge folding over into northern michigan (h8 of 15 c at
apx) while nw flow will continue to advect this warmer air south.
this brings highs into the mid to upper 80s today and friday. hi-res
guidance produces a speckling of showers later this afternoon near
the saginaw bay/northern lake huron lake breezes. considering the
strong cap aloft and dry/well mixed boundary layer this afternoon,
thinking this will mostly just result in an uptick in diurnal cu.
overall dry conditions persist through friday, although the next
system will send high cloud into the region friday afternoon.
next opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms arrives friday
night into the weekend as a synoptic wave rounds the central conus
ridge. the best chance to see rain friday evening will be north of i-
69, closest to the lead vort max. the euro shows the most bullish
solution where the strength of the wave cools the mid-levels enough
to erode the strong subsidence bubble that will be in place.
moisture then fills in more broadly overnight into saturday, in
which pops fluctuate in the 40-70% range through the day. majority
of soundings show issues with moisture depth, particularly in the
low levels as most of the moisture transport occurs over the ohio
valley. while this does not prevent rain chances entirely, it does
look to cut down on qpf as ensemble medians are still coming in
below 0.5". a concentrated footprint of higher rainfall totals will
be possible given the presence of the deformation axis overhead,
although absence of instability (< 500 j/kg mucape) will also be a
limiting factor for rainfall intensity/amounts saturday. much of the
instability is concentrated in the drier low levels, meaning shallow
equilibrium levels between 0 and -10 c and limited ice production.
this affords only low end thunder chances. all of this culminates to
a cool and cloudy saturday with periods of at least light-moderate
rain. the thick cloud cover and cooler ne flow caps highs in the mid-
upper 70s.
aggressive isentropic downglide then takes hold saturday night,
stripping out the mid and upper level column moisture. this brings
an end to the steady rain we see saturday although some lingering
low-topped shower activity may spill into sunday, especially given
the cool ne flow off of lake huron. gradual warming trend is then
expected sunday onward as mid-level heights build back into the
region and cloud cover diminishes. highs in the low 80s sunday
climb into the upper 80s by mid-week.
marine...
light north winds this morning become easterly later today, and
eventually southerly on friday as high pressure drops south through
the region. late friday and through the weekend, the surface wind
field across the region responds to a surface low progged to track
east across the ohio valley. locally, winds across the central great
lakes will become north-northeast saturday. as this low approaches,
the likelihood of showers and a few thunderstorms increase late
friday and on saturday.
on sunday, north winds will briefly become reinforced and lingering
chances for showers and storms remain in the forecast as a cold
front drops south across the region. high pressure follows for early
next week.
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
aviation.....sf
discussion...mv
marine.......ja
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.