051
fxus63 kdtx 192343
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
743 pm edt wed aug 19 2026
.key messages...
- non-zero chance of an isolated thundershower near the ohio border
this evening; mainly dry conditions prevail elsewhere.
- shower and thunderstorm chances return friday night through
saturday.
- turning a bit cooler sunday and monday with a drying trend before
warming up toward the middle of next week.
&&
.aviation...
vfr skies will prevail through the taf period as high pressure takes
residence across michigan through tomorrow. mid-clouds will lift
across the border associated with convective activity across il to
oh affecting the southern terminals. mostly clear skies expected
towards fnt and to the north. a few lingering northwesterly winds
this evening will eventually become northeasterly tonight into
tomorrow while remaining light as the surface high progresses. enough
dry air should result in limited diurnal cu response tomorrow.
d21/dtw convection... no thunderstorms are forecast trough tomorrow.
.dtw threshold probabilities...
* none.
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 349 pm edt wed aug 19 2026
discussion...
frontal progress has slowed significantly this morning, becoming
stationary near the ohio border. this convergence zone could support
a few additional showers (and perhaps a rumble of thunder) through
the evening hours as pwats and low-level moisture remain marginally
supportive, but subsidence layers and some evidence of capping
inhibit any broader convective response. afternoon kdtx radar has
been relatively quiet, with one exception over the thumb where lake
breeze boundaries have triggered some isolated pulse convective
showers. elsewhere, the post-frontal airmass leads to steady
lowering of dewpoints, from the 60s down into the 50s. the pressure
gradient should stay diffuse, in the absence of a well-defined
surface high pressure center over the great lakes region. flow
should turn northerly tonight and trend toward calm. seasonably cool
temperatures expected overnight with lows dipping into the 50s,
capped to the low side by mixed cloud cover.
the broad upper low centered within resident composite longwave
troughing dislodges eastward thursday, exiting james/hudson bay into
northern quebec. cyclonic flow will persist aloft over southeast
michigan for most of thursday, but low-level anticyclonic influence
becomes more established, building from the eastern plains. expect
standard late august conditions with a dry forecast, highs near 80f,
afternoon dewpoints mixing into the mid (or perhaps low) 50s, and
overnight lows in the upper 50s. the embedded jet streak departs
friday leading to split-flow aloft, albeit within a broader conus
trough configuration. column winds turn zonal from 700 mb upwards,
while pacific shortwave energy works across the high plains toward
lower michigan. low-level jet response appears in the progs,
becoming southwesterly within the lowest 4 kft by midday friday.
this ushers in renewed thetae convergence priming the boundary layer
for the next round of showers and storms. latest model data suggests
precipitation should hold off during the daylight period friday.
the surface low is set to track across northern michigan late friday
and saturday with rain focused along the attendant cold front.
timing differences persist per nwp solutions. a secondary and more
progressive wave will speed across central ontario, phasing with the
lead wave by saturday evening. this leads to a reinforcing shot of
cooler air and shower chances early saturday night. thermal
troughing then fills in by sunday morning, dropping 700 mb
temperatures near/below 0c (omitting the gfs/gefs). cmc/ecmwf even
hint at lake effect (rain) shower potential amidst cold cyclonic
northwest flow. 1020 mb surface ridge builds south from
manitoba/ontario early next week, before return flow arrives and
lifts readings back above normal toward the middle of next week.
marine...
tonight into tomorrow afternoon a high pressure develops over the
region, thus bringing light varying winds and calm weather. thursday
evening the wind direction is expected to veer from northern to
easterly throughout the evening to overnight hours across all
regions. northerly flow of 10 knots, with gusts up to 15 knots,
possible across all regions late thursday afternoon. gusts up to 20
knots will possible in the bay area in the late evening hours as
well. friday a high pressure system departs our area as a low
pressure system, and associated cold front, approaches the region. a
pressure gradient between systems enhances southeasterly wind flow
all afternoon for northern lake huron and in the evening hours for
the bay area and southern lake huron. moderate winds up to 15 knots,
with gusts up to 20 knots, possible friday evening in lake huron and
bay area. a chance for rain showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, are
possible for all regions friday evening. active weather continues
through sunday before clearing up to begin the week.
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
aviation.....aa
discussion...kgk
marine.......zb/mv/kgk
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at www.weather.gov/detroit.