902
fxus63 kdtx 100720
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
320 am edt fri jul 10 2026
.key messages...
- chance (30-50%) for some showers and thunderstorms along and south
of i-94, with the higher end of this range favored near the mi/oh
border.
- the strongest storms that develop could produce localized wind
gusts of 40 to 60 mph and small hail.
- dry weather and near-normal temperatures this weekend.
- high confidence for above normal temperatures next week with
temperature highs in the 90s.
&&
.discussion...
prior day precipitation with more favorable clearing across the
northern half of the cwa has produced a more muddled environment
with conditions ranging between periodic stratus and patchy fog.
expansion of low-level stratus will cease and dissipate through the
morning with daytime heating. for the afternoon, the stalled frontal
boundary extending from near hillsdale west-northwest through battle
creek to holland will be the primary focus for renewed daytime
convection, supported by low-level moisture convergence along the
boundary. convective development will be most favorable along and
south of i-94, with probabilities increasing towards the
michigan/ohio border. where convection develops, 1200-1500 j/kg of
sbcape combined with sufficient bulk shear may support a few
organized storms. the strongest cells could produce localized
downburst winds of 40-60 mph and small hail. the limited and
uncertain convective coverage should keep these hazards isolated.
shower and thunderstorm chances end by the evening as the convergent
boundary moves south of the state.
high pressure builds in through the weekend, supporting dry weather
and extended periods of sunshine. daytime highs and lows hang out
around seasonal normal values in the mid 80s to low 60s,
respectively. a strong dome of high pressure across the rockies will
lose some amplification early next week as a series of mid-level waves
carve through the southern canadian provinces. this will fold the
elevated temperatures across the plains into the great lakes next
week, with 850mb temperatures of 18-22c arriving across se mi by
monday. strong mid-level subsidence will help support dry and mostly
sunny conditions through at least the early week period which,
coupled with the thermal advection, will likely push daytime highs
back into the 90s. at present time, tuesday and wednesday look to
have the most favorable chance to see highs peaking towards the mid
90s, coinciding with the stronger waa. above normal temperatures
have potential to continue into the end of the forecast period (thu-
fri), however the 500mb height contours become increasingly oriented
northwest to southeast, establishing a more direct midlevel flow
connection from the high plains into the great lakes. this may allow
upstream convection, or at least its associated cloud debris, to
progress into the region.
&&
.marine...
a weak cold front stalls near the lake st. clair and western lake
erie vicinity this morning. scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible in this area, mainly from late this morning into the
early afternoon. isolated storms may capable of producing wind gusts
in excess of 34 kt. meanwhile, high pressure builds across the
northern great lakes today which maintains north to northeast wind
of 10 to 15 kt for much of the area. gusts may briefly reach near 20
kt this afternoon across southern lake huron and saginaw bay due to
favorable fetch orientation. the high pressure eases farther south
on saturday and sunday, maintaining benign marine conditions with
light wind that becomes variable as the high passes overhead.
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 1211 am edt fri jul 10 2026
aviation...
frontal boundary has settled across the i-69/m-59 corridor with only
a couple isolated showers hanging around southeast michigan.
northerly winds are present north of the front with variable winds
near and south of the front. mvfr to possible ifr ceilings should
develop early this morning within the northerly flow and around the
frontal boundary. presence of the boundary and lingering low level
moisture with dew points into the upper 60s/low 70s brings potential
for fog throughout the night with some isolated vsby drops already
observed. northerly winds behind the front will persist through the
morning along with the lower ceilings. as front drops further south
tomorrow afternoon a few scattered showers, maybe isolated thunder,
will be possible for 2-3 hours in the afternoon across the southern
metro terminals.
d21/dtw convection...thunder chances are low for tomorrow. most
likely window around 17-19z if an isolated thunderstorm can develop.
dtw threshold probabilities...
* medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet early this morning.
high by mid morning into the afternoon.
* low for thunder tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
discussion...am
marine.......tf
aviation.....aa
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at www.weather.gov/detroit.