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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1153 pm est wed feb 1 2023


vfr conditions will continue into thursday, but eventually mvfr to
lower vfr stratus will filter south with the passage of an arctic
cold front during the late afternoon/evening. a few flurries may
occur along/behind this front as well, but with no restrictions to
vsby. southwest flow will become gusty thursday morning and remain
so as winds veer to the west and then northwest with fropa. gusts to
25 knots can be expected into the evening.

for arctic cold front will pass through the terminal 22z-
00z thursday evening with a wind shift from southwest to northwest
with fropa. with wind gusts to near 25 knots, crosswind thresholds
may be approached especially as wind direction veers to 300-320
degrees during the evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings aob 5kft after 23z thursday evening, low

* low for crosswind thresholds to be reached with northwest flow
behind cold frontal passage thursday evening.


.prev discussion...
issued at 355 pm est wed feb 1 2023


near term / rest of today through tonight

as of 355 pm est...chilly, but dry and tranquil conditions continue
across southeast michigan this afternoon with broad surface high
pressure in place across the lower great lakes. confluent flow aloft
has helped ensure stability through the atmospheric column yielding
abundant sunshine, despite occasionally breezy southwest flow at
times keeping wind chills generally in the 5-15 degree range.

heading into tonight, dry weather will continue as heights aloft
become more zonal in nature, and surface high pressure departs east
towards the mid-atlantic region. expansive clouds associated with
overrunning mixed precipitation across the tennessee, lower
mississippi, and texas regions will attempt to spill northward
across the ohio border at times through the night. otherwise, areas
generally south of i-69 should generally continue to see mainly
clear skies overnight, with increasing cloud coverage further north
in advance of a northern stream shortwave approaching lake superior.
continued steady southwest wind will keep low temperatures more
muted than last night, with low/mid teens across the region.

short term / thursday through friday night

thursday will start out quiet in advance of an approaching arctic
frontal boundary associated with the aforementioned northern stream
wave that will continue tracking eastward across the northern great
lakes, and eventually towards quebec by thursday evening. one of the
coldest airmasses of the season will accompany the arctic frontal
boundary (especially across the northeast), aided in part by the
rapid building of a 1040+ hpa surface high pressure into the upper
midwest by friday morning. ahead of the front, continued southwest
flow will strengthen with the building high pressure into the upper
midwest and surface low pressure spinning up invof of quebec,
promoting occasional gusts 20-30 mph. high temperatures will attempt
to make a run towards 30 degrees before the frontal approach as well.

timing of the arctic front passage across southeast michigan looks
to be in the 3pm-8pm timeframe during peak daytime heating, with the
potential for surface convergence along the front to promote
scattered snow shower activity. best dynamic forcing will be
stripping away further to the east with the shortwave with time,
along with a surge in midlevel dry air accompanying the frontal
passage. however, some sbcape (~50 j/kg) will be possible amidst a
steepening lllr environment with mixing heights increasing to around
5 kft, just enough to tap into the dgz. given the overall dry nature
of the forecast soundings, snow squall potential looks low, with
highest confidence in a potential sps being issued for areas north
of i-69 where insolation will intersect the frontal passage timing
the best. as the front progresses quickly southward, snow shower
coverage and potential should wane with time.

low temperatures thursday night will fall close to zero as the
beginning of the cold airmass builds into the region. behind the
arctic frontal passage, winds will flip to the northwest and
continue to remain breezy through the night. with the combination of
plummeting low temperatures and breezy conditions, wind chills will
fall well below zero thursday night, with minimum values flirting
with -15 f. a wind chill advisory still looks possible thursday
night into friday morning, especially for northern areas.

850 hpa temps by friday morning per spc upper air climatology will
be near record cold values for this time of year as temps push -25 c
across portions of the thumb (with the coldest air pushing into the
northeast). despite building surface high pressure, lingering
cyclonic flow may allow for a few flurries here and there friday,
although it will be tough with plentiful dry air in the 5-15 kft
layer. after high temperatures friday struggling to reach the low
teens, friday night will also see low temperatures flirt with zero.

long term / saturday through tuesday

the rush of cold air will be relatively short-lived with a return to
above-normal temperatures by the end of the weekend and into early
next week. high temperatures by next tuesday will rebound into the
40s with a return for scattered rain showers in advance of the next
frontal system.


southwest winds gusting to 30 knots this afternoon will relax
slightly tonight in the wake of a weak system exiting the area. this
changes by thursday afternoon as the next system racing across
ontario drives an arctic cold front south through the central great
lakes. a tightening gradient and reinforcing surge of colder air
looks to support northwest gales (35-40kts) through latter half of
thursday into early friday as well as periods of heavy freezing
spray. a gale warning and heavy freezing spray warning have been
issued for all open waters of lake huron for this period. unsettled
pattern persists into the weekend as the great lakes continue to
reside under an arctic airmass/upper level troughing.


.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
lake huron...gale warning from 10 am thursday to 4 am est friday for lhz361-362.

heavy freezing spray warning from 10 am thursday to 4 am est friday
for lhz361-362.

gale warning from 4 pm thursday to 10 am est friday for lhz363-

heavy freezing spray warning from 4 pm thursday to 10 am est friday
for lhz363-462>464.

small craft advisory until 4 am est friday for lhz421.

small craft advisory from 4 am thursday to 4 am est friday for

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.



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