Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
686
fxus61 kcle 181857
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
157 pm est tue nov 18 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure will build from the north on wednesday into
thursday, exiting northeast towards new england by thursday
night. a low pressure system will track east through the lower ohio
valley as a cold front drops south across the great lakes on
friday. high pressure will gradually build in from the west by
saturday into sunday.

&&

.near term /through wednesday night/...
cold rain continues across the area this afternoon as
temperatures gradually rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s
behind a shallow warm front. another wave of energy will arrive
from the west later this afternoon, bringing a period of more
steady rain across much of the area by this evening. as
rain tapers from west to east overnight, some patches of dense
fog are possible with high pressure building from the north,
trapping moisture in the low levels. at this time, confidence in fog
coverage is low, though will continue to monitor trends through
this evening.

otherwise, weak high pressure will lead to mainly quiet and dry
weather on wednesday, though residual cloud cover may stick
around for much of the day, limiting highs to the 40s.

&&

.short term /thursday through friday night/...
main focus for the short term period will be the potential for
rain thursday night into friday as an upper-level trough slides
east across the upper great lakes region, extending a cold front
through the area. confidence remains on the lower side with
regards to precipitation coverage, though think a few light
scattered rain showers appear plausible thursday night into
friday. this front is then expected to briefly stall across the
ohio valley as another wave of low pressure tracks east along
it on friday. the latest guidance continues to decrease rain
chances for the friday system, with the largest probabilities
focused generally along and south of the us-30 corridor.

&&

.long term /saturday through tuesday/...
seasonable and generally quiet weather appears favored for the
long term period as high pressure builds into the region on
saturday, persisting into early next week. will need to begin
watching trends for a low pressure system originating out of
the southern plains on tuesday for our next rain chances.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
low pressure moves into the ohio valley this evening, with
current conditions defined by vfr overcast skies and areas of
rain showers. conditions will gradually deteriorate to mvfr
ceilings this evening from southwest to northeast, followed by
ifr conditions as rain ends from west to east. kcle/keri areas
could escape the ifr tonight, or at least be a bit more brief
with ifr conditions. once ifr develops, it should last through
the overnight before conditions improve to mvfr ceilings, with
parts of northwest pennsylvania and northeast ohio improving to
vfr wednesday afternoon as clouds scatter out.

light southeast winds around 5 knots become northeast tonight
and wednesday.

outlook...non-vfr with ceilings is expected to continue through
wednesday. non-vfr conditions may return with rain thursday
night through saturday.

&&

.marine...
light northeast winds of around 10 knots will persist through
wednesday as a weak low moves east across the ohio valley to the mid-
atlantic region. high pressure builds in thereafter with near calm
winds developing wednesday night into thursday. light offshore flow
will develop wednesday night and continue through most of thursday
before south/southwest winds increase to 10 to 15 knots in response
to the next approaching cold front thursday night. winds will shift
to the northwest behind the front friday afternoon through saturday,
though winds and resulting waves should remain under small craft
advisory criteria.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...kahn
near term...kahn
short term...kahn
long term...kahn
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
681
fxus63 kiwx 181901
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
201 pm est tue nov 18 2025

.key messages...

- rain showers and perhaps a bit of drizzle coming to an end
late tonight mainly after midnight est.

- cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions expected over the next
several days.

- another system passes south of the forecast area beginning
thursday through saturday afternoon bringing increased chances
of rain showers. at this time precipitation totals look to
again be on the light side with the system pushing further
south in recent model runs.

- seasonable temperatures expected through the weekend into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 130 pm est tue nov 18 2025

today`s disturbance will continue to move eastward tonight bringing
an end to the light rain showers and possibly a bit of drizzle
especially south of us-30 by early morning wednesday with some
drier air pushing southward into the area this evening.
however, with a more zonal flow in the wake of this system
cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions should continue over the next
several days. this will also keep high temperatures pretty
stable and seasonable through the beginning of next week with
highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

another system originating from baja of california will move
northeastward across texas into the ohio river valley. this will
increase chances of rain showers for our area beginning thursday
afternoon into there is a bit uncertainty to the exact track
of the system but latest guidance does bring it south of our
cwa. this would help to keep precipitation in the liquid form
and limit the rainfall amounts. so will need to keep an eye on
the exact track as the further south it goes the less rainfall
we would see.

looking well ahead for late next week there are indications of
a much colder airmass to move into the area for the holiday.
this may include some snowfall however with more than a week
away will need to continue to monitor for that potential in the
coming days.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1256 pm est tue nov 18 2025

surface low pressure across mo this aftn will push east through
the lower oh valley overnight as high pressure settles into the
gtlks region by sunrise wednesday. a warm front ahead of the
low pressure system is situ south of the fcst area. the latest
radar trends have shown an area of rain showers clipping the
kfwa terminal with vsbys dropping at times to mvfr. the fcst
sounding for kfwa shows a rather strong inversion through the
night so low cigs are anticipated there while ksbn should not be
impacted as much with regard to persistent low cigs. the rain
should be east of the area by 06z.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...frazier

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
874
fxus63 kdtx 181728
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1228 pm est tue nov 18 2025

.key messages...

- dry conditions with highs mainly in the 40s are forecast wednesday
and thursday.

&&

.aviation...

passage of an upper-level wave and frontal band will continue to
bring the chance for light precipitation for the terminals south of
kmbs. rain is favored for the metro terminals, with some lower end
chances for snow mixing in across kptk to kfnt this evening as
temperatures drop, with no snow accumulation expected. lowering of
ceiling heights to mvfr remains likely with any precipitation
observed by this evening. wind direction will back to the northeast
tonight which will push any lingering mvfr cigs south of the region.

there is a low-end chance to see lake moisture aid in the
development of low (mvfr or lower) cigs overnight, but confidence in
this materializing is too low at this time to include in the tafs.

for dtw... rain shower chances continue into the afternoon and
evening, with warmer temperatures favoring rain as the p-type.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet today and tonight.

* high for precipitation type of rain.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 931 am est tue nov 18 2025

update...

warmer than projected thermal profiles and daytime heating will allow
precipitation to transition to rain. there have been observations of
a wintry mix at onset, but has been very little impact to travel
this morning. the 12z kdtx sounding shows formidable dry air between
the surface and 10.0 kft agl. suspect the precipitation shield will
continue to weaken/dry out due to evaporation, keeping precipitation
light today. forecast data suggests 850-700mb deformation will
persist in a weak state this afternoon between the m59 and i69
corridors, but saturation will mainly remain below 7.0 kft agl. will
not make any significant changes to the today grids.

prev discussion...
issued at 545 am est tue nov 18 2025

update...

precipitation is now approaching the far southern portions of the
forecast area. surface temperatures within the upstream precip shield
have risen above freezing and are a degree or two above the latest
hrrr. this supports removing the chance for freezing rain in
lenawee/washtenaw counties. recent acars sounding at toledo has a
fairly respectable depth to the warm layer, suggesting precip type
will be mainly rain near the ohio border. the acars sounding out of
detroit is colder and certainly more supportive of a snow/snow
pellets/sleet mix farther north. upstream radar is supportive of
some sleet within the broader region of light rain. based on latest
radar and hi res guidance, precip will expand across locals south of
an ann arbor to monroe line by 13z, then expand into at least the
southern portions of metro detroit between 13z and 16z. a forecast
update will be issued to make some minor adjustments to reflect
current conditions and to remove the early morning portion for the
zfpdtx product.

prev discussion...
issued at 300 am est tue nov 18 2025

discussion...

a compact mid level low rotating into iowa this morning will track
across the nrn ohio valley late this afternoon/evening and weaken
into an open wave. a swath of rain is ongoing upstream as the mid
level height falls in advance of the approaching low interact with a
lower to mid tropospheric frontal boundary. as this wave progresses
east, the mid level fgen region will advance into the southern
portions of the forecast area during the morning. of note is the
area of convection along the nose of the low level jet over south-
central il/ern mo. the strongest low-mid level theta e advection
will progress across the ohio valley today along the nose of the
better low level inflow, which will also sustain a good deal of
elevated instability in this region. this will likely force a more
active response along the lower portions of frontal boundary,
generally south of the forecast area. this suggests some degree of
weakening of the response farther up the frontal slope over srn
lower mi, mainly this afternoon. these factors suggest precip
expanding into the southern portions of the area this morning, with
an overall weakening trend during the course of the afternoon.

the 00z dtx sounding showed a formidable mid level dry layer.
overnight temps across se mi are in the 20s, with sfc dewpoints
around 20. while the precip upstream is in the form of rain,
substantial wet bulb cooling will result in precip change over to
snow as it expands across far srn lower mi this morning. model
soundings remain supportive of some slight warming of the column which
suggest some snow pellets and/or sleet. any freezing rain signal
looks limited, with a little more probability in nrn/cntl
lenawee/wrn washtenaw counties. sfc temps are forecast to rise above
freezing toward late morning. this combined with forecast low qpf
amounts will limit any snow accums to grassy surfaces, primarily
south of a flint-owosso to detroit line. residual mid level frontal
forcing, albeit weak, will warrant lingering chances for rain and/or
wet/melting snow across the south this afternoon. there are several
high res solutions which show a secondary mid level fgen response
along/south of the i-69 corridor this evening as the mid level wave
tracks into ohio. this will be worthy of a chance of rain/snow.

mid level negative vorticity advection and associated sfc high
pressure will expand across lower mi from the northwest on
wednesday. a notable drying trend is forecast overnight into
wednesday morning. this may even limit the extent of any strato cu
on wednesday. despite shallow mixing depths, the expectation for
some sun will push afternoon highs into the low to mid 40s
wednesday. an upper low forecast to move into northern ontario from
north central canada will force a sfc cold front across lower mi
thursday night. a strong confluence in the mid/upper level flow
across the southern great lakes is forecast to suppress the deep
moisture pool across the ohio valley, limiting the available
moisture along the cold front as it works across se mi. the last
several model cycles have trended drier with this front, which is
now being better reflected in the model blends. so only a low chance
for rain is now forecast along the front. prefrontal warm air
advection on thursday will allow temps to make a run at 50 degrees.

marine...

low pressure slides across the ohio valley today, with the northern
edge of its precipitation shield lifting as far north as port huron
by this afternoon. a wintry mix is possible this morning before
changing to rain during the daylight hours. the resident northwest
flow regime will be dislodged toward more of a north-northeast flow
pattern by tonight as the low departs in favor of a northern stream
high pressure center. this high will gradually drift over the great
lakes through mid-week, reinforcing light winds and calm waves.
winds flip to the southwest wednesday night as the high moves into
eastern ontario, with a cold front projected to impact the great
lakes to end the work week. this brings the next chance for elevated
wind/wave action and precipitation chances.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....am
update.......cb
discussion...sc
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.