Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
215
fxus61 kcle 302340
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
740 pm edt mon mar 30 2026

.what has changed...
confidence in heavy rainfall and minor flooding tuesday
afternoon through tuesday night has increased a bit across
northeast ohio/northwest pennsylvania. otherwise, the forecast
and key messages largely remain the same.

&&

.key messages...
1) multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
tonight through tuesday night with the highest confidence
tuesday evening into tuesday night. storms may be strong to
severe and will produce heavy rainfall late tuesday.

2) periodic showers and thunderstorms and above normal
temperatures will continue through the weekend as multiple
systems cross the area.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
the weather pattern will become unsettled tonight and
especially tuesday/tuesday night as a cold front slowly
progresses southeast towards the local area. scattered showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms will become increasingly likely
tonight with the highest chances across far ne oh and nw pa. the
best (elevated) instability is expected to remain to the
northwest of the area through early tuesday so the potential
for any stronger storms is quite low at this point. it will be
quite warm and breezy on tuesday with highs in the 70s and peak
gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely during the afternoon. a few gusts
to 45 mph are possible across portions of nw oh during peak
diurnal mixing.

multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated as
the front nears the northwestern fringe of the cwa tuesday
afternoon and as the front moves southeast across the area
tuesday night. an initial round of showers/storms is possible
near the lakeshore of ne oh and nw pa with a pre-frontal
shortwave during the afternoon, although confidence in the
coverage and intensity of storms is conditional and low at this
point. widespread cloud cover from overnight/early day
convection may limit instability which would inhibit convection
development during the afternoon. if sufficient destabilization
occurs, there may be some stronger storms that are capable of
producing gusty winds and hail. confidence in precipitation is
highest with the best forcing tuesday evening into tuesday
night. with that being said, instability remains a bit
questionable due to uncertainty in the timing of the front. by
early evening, effective bulk shear values will increase to at
40 knots which will support organized showers and storms. if
instability remains in place, all storm modes including damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. a
slight risk for severe weather (level 2 of 5) is in place along
and north of u.s. route 30 with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
south.

heavy rainfall will accompany convection tuesday night and
there is concern for training storms and flooding given flow
parallel to the frontal boundary and near-record precipitable
water values (greater than one inch). the area of greatest
concern is far ne oh into nw pa where at least 1.5 to at least 2
inches of rain could fall between late tonight and tuesday
night. elsewhere, qpf values will generally be an inch or less,
but locally higher amounts are possible where thunderstorms
train.

key message 2...
multiple rounds of rain and periodic chances of thunderstorms
will continue through late week as the aforementioned cold front
slows over the southern part of the area or the ohio valley
wednesday and lifts north as a warm front on thursday. a series
of systems will likely cross the area late week into the
weekend, but it`s still far too early to speculate on possible
impacts. while there aren`t any strong signals for flooding
during the late week period, the continuous showers may keep
local creeks/streams elevated.

temperatures will cool slightly on wednesday with warm air
advection allowing temperatures to climb well into the 70s on
thursday. locations in the southern half of the area may make a
run for the lower 80s, especially if there`s a lull in
precipitation and a break in clouds. highs in the 70s are
expected to continue into the weekend with overnight lows
remaining above normal.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
prevailing vfr conditions this evening through the 18z tuesday.
restriction likely due to lowered ceilings and possible ts for
taf sites near the lake after 18z tuesday. included a tempo
group for showers with visibility restriction down 4sm at eri
through 04z. elsewhere, especially east of i-71, there is the
potential for scattered showers and isolated thunder this
evening, though confidence in coverage was too low for inclusion
(cle/cak/yng). thunderstorm chances, particularly across the
northern taf sites (tol/cle/eri), will increase after 18z
tuesday. ergo, we have added to -shra at all taf sites. and may
need to be included in the next taf package.

winds will remain elevated overnight, 10 to 15 knots, with less
gusts. a marginal llws threat will remain in the forecast overnight
as a 2kft southwest llj of 45 to 50 knots develops and persists
into tuesday morning. winds will increase again out of the
southwest late tuesday morning, 15 to 20 knots with periodic
gusts of 30 to perhaps 35 knots by early afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms tuesday
night into wednesday. additional periods of non-vfr conditions
possible in showers and thunderstorms thursday through saturday.

&&

.marine...
elevated southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots will persist across lake
erie into tuesday night. though winds may occasionally gust up to 25
knots, believe most of the higher winds should be confined along the
nearshore given the cold lake surface temperatures. thus, have opted
against a small craft advisory at this time. the latest sar imagery
from this morning corroborates this, with mainly 10-knot winds found
beyond 2 nm. winds will briefly shift towards the north behind a
cold front on wednesday, 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20
knots and gradually becoming east to northeast wednesday night into
thursday. winds will return to the southwest as the cold front lifts
back north as a warm front late thursday, 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...15
aviation...fz
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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010
fxus63 kiwx 310119
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
919 pm edt mon mar 30 2026

.key messages...

- there is a chance (20-50%) for scattered showers and storms
late tonight into tuesday morning, mainly north of us-30.
hail and gusty winds will be possible if storms develop.

- showers and storms likely (70-90%) late tuesday afternoon into tuesday
night. a few storms could be strong to severe with damaging
winds and large hail the primary threats.

- cooler on wednesday with rain likely (50-70%).

- wet pattern continues thursday through this weekend. river and
lowland flooding possible.

&&

.update...
issued at 911 pm edt mon mar 30 2026

small area of showers and thunderstorms, extending from west of
chicago to cedar rapids ia, was progressing ene. models
continue to suggest this initial batch weakens as it approaches
far nw parts of the area later this evening. have left some slgt
chc to chc pops in through the night with the main axis of
convection likely to linger near/south of a quasi-stationary
boundary from ia into central lower mi. evolution and impacts of
overnight convection remains uncertain as the llj increases to
the west where the best instability will reside ahead of a weak
disturbance.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 205 pm edt mon mar 30 2026

an occasionally wet/stormy pattern will settle in through this
weekend as several storm systems take aim on the midwest and great
lakes.

a warm front will set up from the plains east to southern mi tonight
into tuesday morning on the southern fringes of zonal westerlies.
this will bring chances (20-50%) for scattered elevated convection
to areas mainly north of us-30. moisture convergence on the nose of
a 50 kt low level jet in tandem with an incoming subtle mid level
impulse will help provide the forcing, though coverage potentially
limited by lacking deeper moisture and capping. any convection would
be capable of hail and gusty winds given an eml plume atop a
relatively dry sub-cloud layer and strong low level flow.

a more pronounced shortwave tracking east near the canadian border
will send a weak sfc reflection through the upper midwest and
central great lakes tuesday into tuesday evening. this will send a
trailing cold front into the area late tuesday afternoon into
tuesday night with showers/storms likely (70-90%). near 60f
dewpoints under relatively steep mid level lapse rates should allow
for up to near 1500 j/kg of mlcape where mid 70s to near 80f temps
are achieved tuesday afternoon. this in conjunction with 35-40 knots
of deep layer shear may support a few strong to severe storms,
particularly late tuesday afternoon into tuesday evening. wind and
hail appear to be the primary threats.

cooler air will filter in later tuesday night into wednesday in wake
of the sfc front progged to stall just to the south across central
il/in/oh. the elevated portion of the frontal slope will hover
overhead however with periods of rain likely (50-70%) as moist
isentropic upglide persists into this elevated region of
convergence.

the next shortwave and developing sfc low of interest will eject
from the four corners northeast into through the western/northern
great lakes wednesday night through thursday night providing
additional rounds of showers and storms. hydro issues could start to
become a concern, with severe storms not out of the question by
thursday afternoon/evening if the warm sector of the system can
become established for a time. ensembles then bring another storm
system through over the weekend with additional rain chances.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 744 pm edt mon mar 30 2026

stationary boundary, draped from iowa into central lower mi
will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm development
tonight, some of which has already started in central iowa. kfwa
should remain well north of any activity, with a glancing hit
to ksbn possible after 6z. have maintained a prob30 for ksbn,
but removed from kfwa. as the llj ramps up, llws will be a
concerns into the overnight hours before better mixing occurs.

thereafter, it is possible no convection occurs till closer to
the 21z tue to 00z wed period or after as a strong eml and
leftover cloud cover from any morning activity could squash
development initially. have therefore left any precip out of the
tafs after 13z.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 am tuesday to 2 pm edt wednesday
for lmz043.
small craft advisory from 8 am tuesday to 8 pm edt wednesday
for lmz046.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
639
fxus63 kdtx 302333
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
733 pm edt mon mar 30 2026

.key messages...

- periods of showers and thunderstorms will affect the area tonight through
tuesday evening. isolated severe thunderstorms are possible
tonight. scattered severe thunderstorms are possible tuesday with
damaging wind being the primary but also including potential for
large hail and tornadoes.

- a strong cold front fuels storms but also a chance for excessive
rainfall. there is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall mainly
along and south of m-46 tuesday afternoon and evening.

- after the front tuesday night, temperatures drop back to normal or
slightly below normal for wednesday through late week.

- another system will bring rain and a chance of thunderstorms
wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.aviation...

influx of higher low level moisture within deep southwest flow will
maintain the potential for shower development late this evening.
outside of a brief disruption of visibility with any shower
activity, predominant vfr conditions favored through midnight.
gustiness to the southwest wind will persist through at least early
tonight given some persistence to existing mixing. confidence in
nocturnal convective development and trajectory both locally and
upstream remains quite low. latest model guidance maintains the
highest probability for showers and thunderstorms to focus across
central lower mi, potentially impacting mbs and fnt. forecast will
continue to highlight this opportunity for those locations. the
detroit airspace will remain too far removed to the south to suggest
sufficient potential to offer a mention through the morning hours
attm. highest likelihood for thunderstorm development will focus
across the tuesday afternoon and evening periods, as a southward
sagging cold front engages increasingly unstable conditions.
outgoing forcast outlines the most likely window, with further
refinement of specific timing expected as confidence improves with
time.

for dtw...lingering showers in the vicinity through 01z, then shower
and thunderstorm potential expected to remain north of dtw the
remainder of the night. the highest probability exists tuesday
afternoon and evening, with multiple rounds of convection possible
within this window.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs aob 5000 ft this evening through tuesday morning,
then medium.

* low for thunderstorms tuesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 306 pm edt mon mar 30 2026

discussion...

afternoon temperatures across se mi have rising into the low 70s
within ongoing low level warm air advection. a surface cold front,
now over the northern great lakes, is forecast to sink south into
the northern saginaw valley/thumb region tonight, forcing the post
frontal lake modified cold air into the far northern sections of the
forecast area. strengthening southwest flow in the low to mid levels
will in turn advect deep layer moisture from the lower-mid ms valley
this afternoon across the southern lakes region tonight. meanwhile,
very steep mid level lapse rates will result in decent elevated
instability overnight (0-3km mu cape possibly over 1500 j/kg). the
initial mid level theta e surge this evening will support a chance
of convection. additional moisture advection overnight within the
time period of steeper lapse will lead to increased convective
chances, especially across the northern half of the forecast area
closer to lower tropospheric frontal forcing. the degree of elevated
instability and strong mid level wind fields will support isolated
strong to severe convection. limited boundary layer stability
suggest strong winds in addition to hail will be the primary severe
weather concerns. ideal hodograph structure along the cold front
across the saginaw valley/thumb raises some concerns for isolated
supercells. this potential looks to be very limited based on weak
surface instability.

there is the potential for a couple of rounds of convection on
tuesday as resident deep layer moisture and an axis of steep mid
level lapse rates reside overhead. low level frontogenetical forcing
will also be present as the aforementioned cold front gradually
sinks south during the day. hi res models present an array of timing
of the convection across the area, much of which will be dependent
upon timing and coverage of nocturnal convection and associated
convective short wave impulses. deep layer shear profiles will
remain supportive of strong to severe convection, predicated upon
the availability of surface based convection. both linear and
supercellular storm structure will be favored based on forecast
hodographs. the passage of the cold front will be marked by a
drastic cool down given the degree of shallow post frontal cold air.

low to mid level anticyclonic flow will envelop the northern great
lakes wednesday, ensuring dry conditions across the northern half of
the forecast area. the cold front is forecast to stall across the
ohio valley, with the elevated portion of the front remaining active
through the day wednesday, warranting chance type pops across the
south. a progressive mid level wave forecast to lift from the
southern high plains wed night into the western great lakes thurs
night will drive the front back north as a warm front wed
night/thursday morning. the thermal profile within the shallow cold
air across the tri cities and northern thumb will support mixed
precip in these locals wed night. recent probabilistic guidance has
reasonably high probabilities for trace to a tenth inch of ice north
of m 46. by thursday most of the forecast area is forecast to be in
the warm sector, suggesting a chance for thunderstorms. medium range
guidance then indicates the surface low and associated cold front
tracking across lower mi thurs night into friday.

marine...

broad southwest flow will veer to the east for most of lake huron by
this evening as the next low pressure system and its warm front gain
influence locally. the shift in flow will also be accompanied by an
expansion of showers and elevated thunderstorms overnight into
tuesday morning, where hail will be the primary threats. the surface
low tracks across northern michigan tuesday afternoon, drawing a
cold front across lower michigan and adjacent marine waters in its
wake. a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
along the frontal passage tuesday evening, in which localized gusts
in excess of 35 knots will be possible. elevated winds and/or waves
will be driven mainly by thunderstorm activity, as otherwise stable
conditions prevent gusts from mixing to the surface. a cooler post-
frontal airmass then moves in mid-week as flow shifts to the
northwest tuesday night with the fropa. high pressure then drifts
across ontario wednesday, causing winds to veer around the southern
edge of the high before the next system lifts into the area
thursday.

hydrology...

periods of showers and thunderstorms will affect the area tonight
through late tuesday. locally heavy rainfall is likely with the
strongest storms. model ensemble means suggest high probabilities
for 12 to 24 hour total rainfall of 1/2 inch to an inch. there is
however low probabilities for total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches within
regions that see more persistent thunderstorms. localized flooding
is possible, especially in more urbanized areas. a slow moving
frontal boundary will linger across the metro detroit and ann arbor
areas tuesday night into wednesday, supporting additional chances
for light rain. this front is forecast to lift back north wed night,
with a slow moving cold front then forecast to approach thurs into
fri. these systems will produce additional rainfall, with current
projections suggesting additional rainfall remaining an inch or less.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...sc
marine.......mv
hydrology....sc

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.