Lucas and Wood Counties
fxus61 kcle 190244
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
944 pm est sat nov 18 2017
low pressure will track across the lower lakes this evening
dragging an arctic front across the forecast area. lake effect
snow showers will develop sunday and linger into monday when
high pressure builds in.
.near term /through sunday/...
things are on track as the surface cold front nears the pa
border. winds have begun to increase behind the front and the
advisory looks good. have been seeing some snow in the obs at
tol and had a report of sleet near norwalk. have gone ahead
added mixed precip to western areas overnight although no accum
is expected. scattered showers will diminish from west to east
overnight and it will take some time for the lake effect to get
previous...low pressure system just sw of fdy with current ht
falls near cle. low is forecast to track dragging arctic front
across the area. the arctic front should be sw of the forecast
area toward midnight local. there are some thunderstorms with
the system but the best dynamics and shear is south of the warm
kept the flood watch up basically south of a yng to fdy line.
the area has received between 1 1/2 to 2 inches with a another
inch or so possible this evening.
pushed back wind advisory until 7pm. warm front just now into
central ohio so the winds have not mixed down yet. once the
arctic front moves through the nw winds will increase to 25 to
35 mph with higher gusts.
rain will move east of the forecast area overnight. could see
some snow in the higher elevations of the snowbelt late tonight,
with a dusting or so possible by daybreak.
.short term /sunday night through tuesday night/...
the 850 mb temps plunge to -8c by daybreak but by then moisture
is shifting east. best chance for lake effect snow will be late
sunday into sunday night when 850 temps dip to -12c and an upper
level short wave moves across the eastern lakes. still looks to
be below advisory criteria.
the short term begins monday with high pressure in the over the
lower ohio valley. flow will be off lake erie and 850mb temps -7c
although shear will be increasing. would expect we begin with snow
showers but they will be decreasing quickly as dry air and high
pressure continue to build and winds back. elsewhere expect
increasing sunshine. the next chance for precip will come tuesday
evening and tuesday night as another cold front moves through the
area. will hold precip off until after 00z wednesday and begin with
a chance of either rain or snow with highest chance northeast. after
about 3z will change precip to all snow but will decrease pops as
colder but drier air moves in which should hamper any significant
lake effect. highs in the 40s and 50s monday and tuesday. highs in
the 30s wednesday.
.long term /wednesday through saturday/...
not many changes to long term. it looks like we will be able to
sneak in a dry and quiet thanksgiving and also a dry friday. low
pressure will move southeast across the northern lakes friday night
into saturday. the usual timing and placement differences are
present in the 12z guidance. but...it looks it could precip at some
point. will go ahead with chance pops both periods with best chances
across the northern end of the area. precip type remains in
question friday night but saturday should see all rain. given model
differences going no higher than low chance pops seems reasonable.
thursday will be a chilly day but temps will warm back into the 40s
for the end of the period.
.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
the the back edge of the main area of precip is currently along
the i-71 corridor with a second area of rain over nw oh. both
of these will continue to move east across the area this
evening. the surface cold front should be to cle and mfd in an
hour or so and east of the area by 06z. expect cigs behind the
front to dip to ifr for several hours with improvement beginning
in the west late tonight. sunday will bring a combination of
mvfr and vfr cigs. have not hit the lake effect very hard at eri
as warm air coming from the lake should prevent a changeover to
perhaps the biggest story of the night will be winds. expect
strong nw winds to develop overnight with gusts in the 35 to 40
knot range all locations. speeds will gradually diminish on
outlook...non-vfr continues into monday across northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania. a brief period of non-vfr possible
tuesday night all areas.
will continue with the gale warning as it is. low pressure will
move northeast of the lake this evening. winds behind the low will
increase out of the northwest to 35-40 knot gales this evening
continuing through the night and into sunday morning. winds will
remain out of the northwest through sunday night before backing to
southwest by monday. wind speeds will remain 25 to 30 knots sunday
afternoon through much of sunday night. wind speeds will remain at
or above 20 knots much of the period monday through tuesday before
dropping back to 10 to 15 knots wednesday and thursday.
oh...wind advisory until 10 am est sunday for ohz009>014-019>023-
flood watch until midnight est tonight for ohz017-020>023-
wind advisory until 7 am est sunday for ohz003-006>008-017-018.
pa...wind advisory until 10 am est sunday for paz001>003.
marine...gale warning until 9 am est sunday for lez142>144-162>164.
gale warning until 4 pm est sunday for lez145>149-165>169.
Fulton and Henry Counties
fxus63 kiwx 190714
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
214 am est sun nov 19 2017
issued at 1230 am est sun nov 19 2017
a few light rain or snow showers will persist across southwest
michigan into northern indiana this morning. otherwise mostly cloudy
and cold with highs this afternoon in the mid 30s.
the rest of the upcoming holiday week will be seasonably cool and
dry through thanksgiving day.
.short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 206 am est sun nov 19 2017
much quieter weather in store as les winding down this morning
only sensible weather concern. both kiwx and kgrr indicating
diminishing trends in les recently which the latest hrrr run has
captured nicely. despite the current downward trend...forecast
soundings still indicating unidirectional nw flow beneath 5kft
inversion lending marginal support for continuing low chance pops
through the morning hours before winds back to a more westerly
direction as surface ridging builds into the tn valley. this will
lead to clearing skies this afternoon away from the lake but
expect little change in temperature given decent low level caa.
despite clear skies tonight...high pressure center to the south
will leave enough of a gradient over the area to mitigate
decoupling of the boundary layer and more substantial radiational
cooling which should leave lows in the mid-upper 20s.
.long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 206 am est sun nov 19 2017
a generally quiet weather pattern to prevail through the long
term period. high pressure slides off to the carolinas on monday
bringing a milder but quite brisk sw return flow. so while highs
will warm back to 45-50f...apparent temps not expected to get out
of the 30s. northern stream system moving across southern ontario
will bring a cold front through the area tuesday afternoon.
latest model trends showing high pressure drifting further out
into the atlantic but still have gulf moisture cut off.
operational gfs now hinting at narrow band of precip clipping our
far ne cwa and this signal has found its way into the blend...but
other models remain dry and only a couple of the gefs members
showing anything more than 0.01 so will smooth this to a dry fcst.
signal for les in nw fetch behind front tuesday night into
wednesday morning remains weak so will still opt for keeping
forecast dry here as well. another shot of cold air behind this
front will have lows dropping into the 20s with highs in the mid
30s wednesday and upper 30s to near 40 for thanksgiving. another
northern stream system moves into the northern great lakes by the
end of the period and bring a low chance for precip to the
.aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z sunday night)
issued at 1230 am est sun nov 19 2017
vfr expected through the period. low level mixing within post
frontal cold advection regime had yielded cat cig improvement across
the terminals early this morning. expect stratocu to persist into
this aftn before eroding out as dry entrainment takes over within
weakening low level thermal trough. otherwise gusty nw winds to
20kts at times will continue into mid aftn before abating.
lm...gale warning until 4 am est early this morning for lmz043-046.
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Monroe and Lenawee Counties
fxus63 kdtx 190757
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
257 am est sun nov 19 2017
sprinkles and flurries were moving across the forecast area early
this morning in the wake of the strong storm over the st. lawrence
valley. as the colder air continues filter into the area, expect all
of these to change to flurries/scattered snow showers. today will
feature cyclonic flow in the wake of the storm with some help from
the lakes, diurnal response giving some boundary layer instability
with convective depths up to around 8000 feet and a shortwave moving
over the region. therefore will keep the 30 to 40 pops in the
forecast for those snow showers today. will also keep the high
temperatures closer to the mid 30s with plenty of clouds, raw model
output colder than guidance and the cooler trend in that guidance.
high pressure ridge folds over lower michigan this evening which
will not only end the cyclonic flow but also introduce some drier air
in the boundary layer. expect some partial clearing tonight, but
there is a jet streak diving down into the lakes late tonight with
some modest jet support and 500 mb fgen and deformation. this will
support some mid and high clouds from about 09z to 15z.
after that skies will be mostly sunny for the bulk of the day on
monday. southwest gradient strengthens as the high moves east and
the next potent system heads toward the northern great lakes.
subsidence inversion is very low which will keep us from mixing too
much wind, but will also keep the temperatures in check in the mid
to upper 40s.
the cold front moves through lower michigan on tuesday. there is
decent dynamic support through a very good depth on tuesday, but it
takes time for the response since the moisture is marginal. will
have just chance pops for the eastern portions of the forecast area
seasonably cool high pressure builds into the region on wednesday
and for thanksgiving. this high will keep it dry enough for a fair
amount of sun on wednesday and thursday to offset the cooler regime.
friday will be a transition day before the next system on friday
night and saturday which will bring our next chance of rain and/or
northwest gusts to gales over the open waters of lake huron will
diminish through the morning as high pressure works into the area.
a period of moderate to fresh westerlies will then take hold through
monday followed by the the development of strong southwest flow
monday night into tuesday as low pressure tracks across northern
ontario. gusts to low-end gales will be possible during this time
and a fresh gale watch is now in effect.
issued at 1146 pm est sat nov 18 2017
while winds have been slow to increase this evening, a push of low
level cold air overnight will support increasing mixing depths. this
will sustain northwest winds gusts in the 20-30 knot range. the
increasing depth of the cold air will lift inversion heights, which
in turn will result in steadily rising ceilings. with inversion
heights forecast to exceed 6k ft by late sun morning, ceilings
should trend vfr by daybreak. some lake effect showers may break off
into se mi from northern lower. expect the brevity of any snow
showers through daybreak will be enough to leave the mention out of
for dtw...there will be a slow backing of the winds from 320/310 deg
toward 280/290 deg through daybreak. speeds will slowly drop during
the early morning. thus the chances for crosswind thresholds to be
exceeded are looking low. there is a chance for some snow showers to
release off lake michigan and impact metro sun afternoon. no
accumulations are expected.
//dtw threshold probabilities...
* high for cigs aob 5kft tonight and sunday.
* high for precip type being all snow sunday.
* low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded sunday morning.
lake huron...gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for lhz361>363-462>464.
gale warning until 10 am est this morning for lhz421-441>443.
gale warning until 7 am est this morning for lhz422.
lake st clair...small craft advisory until noon est today for lcz460.
michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning until 10 am est this morning for lez444.
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