Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
124
fxus61 kcle 311123
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
723 am edt sun aug 31 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure continues through early next week. strong cold
front late wednesday night into thursday.

&&

.near term /through monday/...
upper trough axis dropping in from the north this early morning will
close off over the mid atlantic this afternoon and tonight. the
forecast remains dry for the region despite the proximity of the low
pressure system to the east, and very little effects in terms of
cloud cover are expected. biggest influence will be the temperatures
on the cooler side continue with slight airmass modification due to
insolation. low to mid 70s today, not as cool tonight but still in
the upper 40s to lower 50s away from the immediate lakeshore, and
mid to upper 70s monday.

&&

.short term /monday night through wednesday/...
upper level trough axis traverses the mississippi valley and heads
into the ohio valley for wednesday, ahead of a potent cold front
cutting through the northern plains and in the great lakes. pops
return to the forecast in the short term after a hiatus for
wednesday with the upper trough axis. low qpf on the front end of
this activity while temperatures remain near to slightly below
normal for both tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.long term /wednesday night through saturday/...
very deep closed low aloft will drop quickly from the canadian
prairies in the northern great lakes bringing 500mb heights
wednesday night through thursday night 3-4 standard deviations below
normal just to the west of the cwa. an associated surface low
pressure system will strengthen accordingly and send a cold front
through the are late wednesday night into thursday. expecting a line
of anafrontal convection immediately following the
wednesday/wednesday night precipitation chances from the
aforementioned southern upper trough. 850mb temperatures will fall
back into the single digits. as the system occludes over northern
ontario without any additional southern progression, the coolest air
will remain well north of the cwa. back into the 60s for thursday
and friday as this preview of fall continues.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
vfr conditions will continue throughout the taf period at all
terminals as high pressure builds across the region. winds will
continue to be light and variable and then turn predominantly
out of the northeast throughout the day at 5-10 knots. kcle and
keri and areas along the lake shore may see stronger winds, but
still expect to be less than 15 knots.

outlook...vfr conditions are expected through tuesday. on wednesday,
isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr
are possible.

&&

.marine...
conditions over lake erie will remain quiet as high pressure
continues through early next week. winds will be out of the
east to northeast at less than 10 knots with waves at 2 feet or
less through tuesday. by wednesday, a cold front will be
approaching from the west and winds will shift to be southerly
and increase to 15-25 knots by thursday morning. the front will
pass during the day thursday with winds and waves diminishing
behind. headlines on lake erie will likely be needed during
this time period.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...26
near term...26
short term...26
long term...26
aviation...23
marine...23

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
881
fxus63 kiwx 311042
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
642 am edt sun aug 31 2025

.key messages...

- seasonable and dry today through tuesday. highs near 80 degrees.

- big changes are ahead by midweek! a strong cold front will
sweep through wednesday afternoon through early thursday,
bringing chances for rain/storms and much cooler temperatures.

- highs only in the 60s thursday and friday with near record lows
well into the 40s.

- there is a moderate swim risk for lake michigan beaches in
berrien county, mi on wednesday. there is a high swim risk for
both la porte county, in and berrien county, mi on thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 236 am edt sun aug 31 2025

with surface high pressure overhead, expect dry conditions to
persist over the next several days. mostly clear skies will allow
for increased insolation today, which will boost temperatures up
into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. given antecedent dry
conditions, diurnal temperature spreads will be around 30-35 degrees
with lows falling back into the mid to upper 40s tonight into early
monday morning under clear skies. to usher in the unofficial end of
summer and begin meteorological fall, labor day will be very similar
to today. highs will be near 80 degrees area-wide on monday with
comfortable humidity and mostly clear skies. enjoy the holiday
weekend!

big changes are ahead by midweek! for those awaiting another taste
of fall, get your sweaters, flannels, and pumpkin spice lattes ready
for thursday! high temperatures will drop over 20 degrees between
wednesday and thursday. an area of low pressure will drop into the
upper great lakes on wednesday from western ontario, with the
system`s attendant surface cold front and upper level trough
extending throughout the midwest. the strong cold front will sweep
through the forecast area wednesday afternoon through daybreak
thursday morning, bringing chances for showers and maybe even a
rumble of thunder or two. increased moisture out ahead of the front
(dewpoints in the low 60s) may allow for a few prefrontal showers
during the day wednesday before the highest precipitation
chances arrive with the front on wednesday evening. as the upper
level trough pivots through on thursday and with a tight
pressure gradient along and behind the front, expect gusty winds
to accompany the sharp temperature drop late wednesday into
thursday. with persistent northwest flow on thursday and friday,
temperatures will only make it to the low to mid 60s for highs!
lows will be well into the 40s (with maybe a few low lying,
rural locations making it into the upper 30s friday morning?
very low confidence but something we`ll have to keep an eye on.)
it is worth noting that the gfs is much stronger than the ecmwf
as to how cold it is on thursday and friday and how much
temperatures can rebound by the weekend. the gfs suggests highs
could be in the 60s until early next week with the euro
depicting a gradual return to the 70s over the weekend and into
early next week. have stuck with the nbm for now as it seems to
be a good middle ground between the two.

behind the strong cold front, breezy northwest winds and high waves
will develop over lake michigan. there is a moderate swim risk for
berrien county, mi beaches on wednesday and a high swim risk for
both berrien county, mi and la porte county, in beaches on thursday.
stay out of the water and stay off of piers/breakwalls! strong rip
and structural currents are expected in addition to the high wave
action.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 642 am edt sun aug 31 2025

strong ridge of high pressure will remain over the great lakes
maintaining vfr conditions and light winds. expect just a few
4-5 kft diurnal cu today given dry/stable profiles.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...johnson
aviation...agd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
109
fxus63 kdtx 310950
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
550 am edt sun aug 31 2025

.key messages...

- dry conditions will prevail through tuesday.

- showers and a chance of thunderstorms late wednesday and wednesday
night will give way to much cooler temperatures late week.

&&

.aviation...

prevailing atmospheric stability keeps winds and clouds in-check for
the terminals, through the next 24+ hours. diurnal cumulus clouds
should struggle to expand beyond few-sct coverage amidst drier and
warmer conditions, followed by another skc night. main forecast
concern is the renewed potential for pockets of nocturnal mvfr fog
which developed in isolated fashion last night. fog mentions were
left out in this taf cycle.

for dtw/d21 convection...no thunderstorms expected during the
forecast period.

threshold probabilities...

* none

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 310 am edt sun aug 31 2025

discussion...

a mid level anticyclone over the manitoba/ontario border will rotate
across the northern great lakes today, then become elongated as it
expands eastward into southern and northern new england tonight into
monday. a weak area of mid level low pressure is forecast to develop
over the mid atlantic monday, then lift northward toward upstate new
york and the eastern great lakes tuesday. the 00z model suite
indicates a ribbon of negative vorticity sliding across lower mi
tues from the north as the weak upper low remains quite far east of
the forecast area. this pattern will support continued deep layer
subsidence across the region with broad sfc high pressure holding
across much of the great lakes today through tuesday.

the overall forecast will be one of persistence for the next three
days. a slightly warmer thermal profile compared to yesterday will
be supportive of highs from the mid 70s to near 80 for the next
three days amidst ample sunshine. the dry continental airmass will
also sustain respectable nighttime cooling with lows dropping into
the upper 40s to mid 50s for the next several nights. the surface
ridge axis will remain positioned to the north of the forecast area,
sustaining light east winds for the next three days. subtle low
level moisture flux off the lakes may therefore support a chance of
fog and/or low clouds tonight and monday night. the higher
probabilities for fog are across the thumb and port huron regions.

the much advertised long wave pattern change will then begin mid
week as a potent mid level trough dives into the upper midwest from
northern canada. this wave will deepen into a closed mid level low
across the northern great lakes by the end of the week. respectable
cold air advection for early september will follow in the wake of
the associated cold front late wednesday, resulting in temperatures
10 to 15 degrees below seasonal norms thurs and friday. ensemble
members generally indicate high rain chances along the lead edge of
the mid level height falls and deep layer moisture axis along/behind
the sfc cold front late wed into wed night.

marine...

strong high pressure will remain over the region through tuesday and
will result in light winds and dry conditions. a pattern shift mid
week will be characterized by strengthening low pressure across the
northern great lakes resulting in the passage of a strong cold front
late wednesday. this will drive colder air across the lakes for the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....kgk
discussion...sc
marine.......sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.