Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 301152
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
752 am edt thu jul 30 2026

.what has changed...
no significant changes.

&&

.key messages...
1) tranquil and pleasant conditions through the end of the week.

2) chances for showers and thunderstorms return this weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
high pressure builds east across the ohio valley through friday.
dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the
week with cooler than average conditions under broad northerly
flow. patchy fog remains possible across inland locations along
and east of i-71.

key message 2...
unsettled weather returns this weekend as an upper level trough
and associated surface low push into the great lakes region.
shower and thunderstorm chances increase from west to east
overnight friday into saturday. there remains some disagreement
across models on the placement and trajectory of the weak
surface low and closed mid-level low which will ultimately
determine coverage and timing of showers and storms,
particularly on saturday. by sunday, the upper trough glides
east across the local area allowing for rain chances to
gradually diminish from west to east through sunday evening.
generally anticipate coverage to remain isolated to scattered
during periods of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. any
showers and storms that occur will be capable of producing heavy
rain as pwat values rise to 1.75-2.00 inches saturday into
sunday.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
vfr conditions are expected through much of the taf period with
high pressure across the region. winds will continue to favor a
general northerly direction through this evening. sky conditions
should be generally clear but some afternoon cumulus may
develop in nw ohio. as high pressure moves east, winds will back
to the southwest for friday morning. some mvfr visibility may be
possible at kcak and kyng on friday morning.

outlook...non-vfr possible with patchy fog in eastern ohio and
western pennsylvania tonight into friday morning. non-vfr
conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
saturday afternoon through sunday.

&&

.marine...
winds over lake erie are diminishing this morning with 10 to 15
kts in the central basin and waves falling under 3 ft.
therefore, all marine headlines have been allowed to expire.
high pressure will build in today and linger through friday.
light northwest flow will remain over the lake today and will
shift to the south on friday with high pressure moving east. for
the weekend, a low pressure system will approach from the west
and slowly move south of the lake on sunday. this system will
bring the chance of showers and storms to the region. east to
northeast flow will be favored on saturday and waves 1 to 2 ft
will be possible around the lake erie islands region. winds will
increase a bit for sunday and become more northerly and waves 1
to 3 ft will be possible, especially for the western and central
basins. high pressure will build from the northwest for early
next week and northeast flow will return to the basin and allow
for waves 1 to 3 ft to remain possible. no marine headlines are
expected at this time, but some moderate swimming risk days are
possible this weekend into early next week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 300932
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
532 am edt thu jul 30 2026

.key messages...

- dry with highs in the 80s today and friday. lows in the 60s
tonight. cooler this weekend with highs in the 70s, low 80s.

- chances for showers and storms friday evening into the
weekend, best potential (60-75 percent) friday night into
saturday night. there is a 20 percent chance sunday afternoon
south of us 24. severe weather is not expected.

- there is a moderate swim risk for lake michigan beaches along
the la porte county, in shoreline on saturday. breaking waves
and currents are expected. there is a high swim risk for
beaches along both la porte county, in and berrien county, mi
sunday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 528 am edt thu jul 30 2026

quiet weather today into the afternoon on friday, with light winds
and partly to mostly sunny skies thanks to high pressure overhead.
highs will be in the 80s, with lows in the 60s. expect increasing
clouds by friday afternoon as an upper level trough and surface low
drops into ia/wi/il. this low will drift east-southeastward through
in/oh/ky friday evening into sunday and become more of an elongated
trough over our area, bringing chances for showers and storms. as
mentioned in the previous discussion, moisture transport ahead of
the next system may be slower to arrive than earlier guidance was
suggesting, and so have most of the pops after 6 pm edt on friday,
increasing from west to east roughly through saturday morning. the
main concern with this system is heavy rain, but the system should
move fast enough to preclude any significant flooding issues. at
this point, best instability looks to remain south of our area, with
mid level lapse rates across the cwa only around 5-6 c/km and
limited surface instability (we have around 200-400 j/kg at times,
best on saturday afternoon). 0-6km bulk effective shear does reach
around 20-35 knots at times, but with the weaker mid level lapse
rates and lower sfc instability don`t think we`ll have any kind of
severe threat (spc keeps us in general thunder sat, with a marginal
risk just south of our cwa (closest to jay county, in). this makes
sense with the better instability axis south. otherwise, lingering
chances for showers/storms persist south of us 24 on sunday (only
have a 20 percent chance).

as the low moves through expect winds to shift more to the east-
northeast through sunday, with more northerly flow expected on lake
michigan towards sun afternoon. gusts up to around 20-25 mph are
possible sun, with waves building up to around 3-5 feet (highest
waves at lake mi beaches along southern berrien county, mi and la
porte county, in). expect strong longshore/structural currents,
particularly on the north sides of piers/breakwalls. rip currents
are also possible within sandbars. have a high swim risk forecast
for sunday in both counties right now, but if winds are lighter or
more e-ne than forecast then waves may not climb as high. a beach
hazards statement may eventually be needed. on saturday, more e-ne
flow (lighter than sunday) could bring waves up to around 2-3 feet
along la porte county beaches, so have a moderate swim risk
forecasted. bottom line: if heading to the beaches along lake mi
this weekend, make sure you check the forecast before you go for any
statements on conditions. heed the advice of lifeguards and pay
attention to beach flags.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 528 am edt thu jul 30 2026

vfr conditions are expected at the terminals this period. light
and variable winds will strengthen slightly out of the west to
northwest this afternoon, then become variable/nearly calm again
overnight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...mcd
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 301041
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
641 am edt thu jul 30 2026

.key messages...

- warming trend today and friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms expected
friday evening through saturday.

- dry weather returns early next week with warming temperatures
approaching 90 degrees by mid week.

&&

.aviation...

the center of surface high pressure will drift from northern
illinois to central indiana today. some degree of thermally driven
troughing across se mi will support some late day boundary layer
convergence, enhanced by lake breeze boundaries. model soundings
suggest enough moisture present to support a sct to bkn high based
diurnal cu field late this afternoon and evening. otherwise,
gradient flow will maintain generally light winds today.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms are forecast today and tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 309 am edt thu jul 30 2026

discussion...

satellite imagery this morning shows clear skies stretching from the
mississippi river valley to the appalachians as high pressure stays
in control. 00z upper air observations have started to show the
thermal ridge folding over into northern michigan (h8 of 15 c at
apx) while nw flow will continue to advect this warmer air south.
this brings highs into the mid to upper 80s today and friday. hi-res
guidance produces a speckling of showers later this afternoon near
the saginaw bay/northern lake huron lake breezes. considering the
strong cap aloft and dry/well mixed boundary layer this afternoon,
thinking this will mostly just result in an uptick in diurnal cu.
overall dry conditions persist through friday, although the next
system will send high cloud into the region friday afternoon.

next opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms arrives friday
night into the weekend as a synoptic wave rounds the central conus
ridge. the best chance to see rain friday evening will be north of i-
69, closest to the lead vort max. the euro shows the most bullish
solution where the strength of the wave cools the mid-levels enough
to erode the strong subsidence bubble that will be in place.
moisture then fills in more broadly overnight into saturday, in
which pops fluctuate in the 40-70% range through the day. majority
of soundings show issues with moisture depth, particularly in the
low levels as most of the moisture transport occurs over the ohio
valley. while this does not prevent rain chances entirely, it does
look to cut down on qpf as ensemble medians are still coming in
below 0.5". a concentrated footprint of higher rainfall totals will
be possible given the presence of the deformation axis overhead,
although absence of instability (< 500 j/kg mucape) will also be a
limiting factor for rainfall intensity/amounts saturday. much of the
instability is concentrated in the drier low levels, meaning shallow
equilibrium levels between 0 and -10 c and limited ice production.
this affords only low end thunder chances. all of this culminates to
a cool and cloudy saturday with periods of at least light-moderate
rain. the thick cloud cover and cooler ne flow caps highs in the mid-
upper 70s.

aggressive isentropic downglide then takes hold saturday night,
stripping out the mid and upper level column moisture. this brings
an end to the steady rain we see saturday although some lingering
low-topped shower activity may spill into sunday, especially given
the cool ne flow off of lake huron. gradual warming trend is then
expected sunday onward as mid-level heights build back into the
region and cloud cover diminishes. highs in the low 80s sunday
climb into the upper 80s by mid-week.

marine...

light north winds this morning become easterly later today, and
eventually southerly on friday as high pressure drops south through
the region. late friday and through the weekend, the surface wind
field across the region responds to a surface low progged to track
east across the ohio valley. locally, winds across the central great
lakes will become north-northeast saturday. as this low approaches,
the likelihood of showers and a few thunderstorms increase late
friday and on saturday.

on sunday, north winds will briefly become reinforced and lingering
chances for showers and storms remain in the forecast as a cold
front drops south across the region. high pressure follows for early
next week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...mv
marine.......ja


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.