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Lucas and Wood Counties

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000
fxus61 kcle 020526
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1226 am est thu feb 2 2023

.synopsis...
high pressure will gradually move into the mid atlantic tonight
and offshore thursday allowing an arctic cold front to dive
south across the lower great lakes region thursday night. arctic
high pressure will build over the region late friday then
gradually shift east over the weekend.

&&

.near term /through today/...
the lake-effect clouds are finally shifting northward as of mid
afternoon as the flow backs in response to broad surface high
pressure building northward into the lower great lakes. this has
left all areas mostly sunny except for extreme ne ohio and nw pa
where mid-level clouds linger. current temperatures range from the
mid to upper 20s, so don`t let the sun fool you, it is still quite
cold!

warm air advection will start up tonight ahead of a broad northern
stream mid/upper longwave trough pressing southward from the
northern plains and upper great lakes and a southern stream
mid/upper shortwave trough progressing into the southern plains. sw
flow ahead of these features will be enhanced by the surface high
beginning to slide into the mid atlantic, so only expect
temperatures to fall to the 15-20 range tonight despite skies
remaining clear. the sw flow and resultant warm air advection will
further strengthen thursday as the broad northern stream mid/upper
trough axis digs into the central great lakes, eventually absorbing
the southern stream mid/upper trough by thursday night as full
latitude troughing carves out over the eastern conus. the associated
arctic frontal boundary dropping southward will reach southern lower
michigan and southern ontario by thursday evening, but strong warm
air advection ahead of this boundary will boost highs into the
mid/upper 30s. most areas will stay dry through the day, but
increasing frontogenetic forcing and height falls as the front
approaches from the nw could bring a few rain/snow showers into far
ne ohio and nw pa by evening.

thursday night looks to be the main show as the arctic frontal
boundary crosses the region and the big trough carves out across the
eastern conus, bringing a short duration nw flow and blast of deep
arctic air to the eastern great lakes region. moisture advection
ahead of the front will be mostly cut off by the southern stream
energy traversing the deep south, but the sharp height falls and
strong frontogenetic forcing aided by a 170-180 knot h3 jet will
lead to a band of snow showers pushing nw to se. the front looks to
cross in the 02 to 05z timeframe, so the convergent band of snow
showers will coincide with this frontal passage. there will be some
instability along the boundary aided by 850 mb temps quickly
dropping below -15 c over the relatively warm lake, but the best
moisture convergence along the boundary will be over western and
central new york, with ne ohio and nw pa only catching the trailing
portion of the boundary lessening the convergence. this along with
very dry air above 5000 feet should reduce the depth of convection
and limit any potential for thunder snow, and the snow squall
parameter from the wrf-arw is in agreement with this. kept thunder
out of the forecast, but still expect a burst of snow showers with
the front which could put down a quick inch or two. the greatest
coverage will be over the primary snowbelt of ne ohio and nw pa. by
the pre-dawn hours of friday, a well-aligned nw flow, strong cold
air advection, and 850 mb temps falling to -23 c will set up
multiple bands of lake-effect snow showers. the organization will
again be limited by a lot of mid-level dry air, which when combined
with a short nw fetch, often reduces the coverage of snow showers,
but equilibrium levels rising to near 9000 feet by friday morning as
the cold air deepens and moderate lake induced cape values
approaching 600 j/kg combined with the well-aligned boundary layer
flow will get at least light lake-effect going. both the primary and
secondary snowbelts should see an additional 1-2 inches through
friday morning in the typical upslope areas well inland (little to
none at the lakeshore). the wild card continues to be the lake huron
connection. this will likely waver between ashtabula and
erie/crawford counties, so locally 3-6 inches is possible there. the
snow will be very fluffy with 20:1 to 25:1 snow ratios, so feel
confident on these amounts despite the above mentioned
negatives.

&&

.short term /tonight through saturday night/...
deep upper level troughing will exit to the east friday allowing an
upper level ridge to build slowly east out of the plains states.
this should allow surface high pressure just west of the area to
produce strong cold air advection over the local area friday into
saturday morning. eventually, as the surface high moves east over
the region, strong cold air advection will come to an end. ahead of
the high, there should be some residual lake effect snow expected
over the northeast snowbelt counties friday into friday evening.
eventually, flow shifts up toward buffalo and this should bring an
end to the lake effect precipitation. otherwise, fair weather
should be the rule across the rest of the area friday into saturday
night under the influence of the high. some of the guidance suggest
highs may not even get out of the single digits friday across the
area in the strong cold air advection but consensus suggests highs
in the teens so will stay close to this trend. otherwise, overnight
lows should drop into the single digits friday night. high pressure
will return warmer air back to the area saturday and should push
temperatures back into the 30s for highs as 850 mb temperatures
recover from -20c to 0c west and -6c east. rapid warm up will take
place.

&&

.long term /sunday through wednesday/...
weak ridge of high pressure builds east across the area resulting in
surface high pressure that is expected to move east from the local
area to the east coast. another rather fast moving shortwave trough
is expected to slide east into the region during this forecast
period and then exit east by early next week. this trough will be
quickly followed by an upper level ridge and subsequent upper level
shortwave by mid week in the fast moving flow. as a result, a weak
wave of low pressure should move through the great lakes by sunday
night with associated moisture and a threat for rain. a surface
ridge and drier air should then affect the local area by monday
ahead of a cold front monday night with another shot for some
precipitation extending possibly into wednesday. after this next
cold shot exits the area, a considerable warm-up is in store for
this forecast period in the mild nearly zonal flow.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
vfr conditions across the taf sites early this morning with vfr
to persist through today. deterioration to mvfr ceilings
areawide will occur by later this evening and overnight. brief
ifr vsby drops from bursts of snow associated with an arctic
cold front are possible across the eastern taf sites, including
cle/cak/yng/eri after 0z.

south to southwest winds are generally 10 knots or less early
this morning. winds will become more southwest later this
afternoon, increasing to near 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25
knots possible. winds will abruptly shift towards the northwest
behind the cold front later this evening and overnight, with
wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible.

outlook...periods of snow with non-vfr possible on friday,
mainly across ne oh and nw pa. non-vfr may return on sunday in
scattered rain and/or snow showers.

&&

.marine...
winds will be gradually increasing through the night into tomorrow
from the southwest and expect to see peak winds sustained to 30
knots on the lake by thursday afternoon. cold front slips southeast
across the area thursday night and winds shift to a northwest
direction through friday. a shift to a westerly direction is then
expected as high pressure builds east across the area friday night
and winds diminish. weak low pressure will track southeast to the
great lakes and setup a southwest flow saturday night and continue
through sunday. a cold front slips southeast and shifts flow to a
more westerly direction for monday. small craft advisory will remain
in effect where currently issued but will extend small craft further
west to the central basin thursday morning through friday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 4 pm est
friday for lez144-145.
small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 1 am est
saturday for lez146-147.
small craft advisory until 1 am est saturday for lez148-149.

&&

$$
synopsis...garuckas
near term...garuckas
short term...lombardy
long term...lombardy
aviation...kahn
marine...lombardy

Fulton and Henry Counties

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000
fxus63 kiwx 020504
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1204 am est thu feb 2 2023

.synopsis...
issued at 550 pm est wed feb 1 2023

warming trend over the next couple of days will lead to high
temperatures in the low to mid 30s by thursday afternoon. an
arctic cold front will usher in much colder temperatures thursday
night into friday with a period of lake effect snow showers
possible. this arctic air will be quick to depart the region, with
a warming trend again for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 225 pm est wed feb 1 2023

sunny skies over the area is kind of deceiving as high
temperatures will only manage to get to the mid-20s today. sub-
freezing temperatures remains the main weather impact at this time
and lows tonight will fall into the mid to upper teens, which is
at least some improvement over the last couple of nights. this
warming trend is thanks to a more zonal flow over the area that
will allow for some moderation in the temps.

thursday some locations will actually warm to above freezing into
the mid 30s, especially the southern half of our cwa. the northern
half of the area looks to remain just below the freezing mark. by
thursday afternoon clouds will begin moving in from the north and
will herald the return to much colder air as an arctic front makes
it`s way into the region.

&&

.long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 225 pm est wed feb 1 2023

thursday night the arctic front associated with the very cold
low over the hudson bay region will begin to move into the area
and bringing gusty north winds, dropping temperatures, and even
some lake effect snow showers. locations close to the lake, mainly
berrien and cass counties in michigan and la porte and st. joseph
counties in indiana will see some light accumulations, about 1 to
2 inches of snowfall. with the gusty winds and light snow there
will be the possibility of some blowing snow for those locations
from thursday night into friday morning.

snow showers will come to an end outside a few isolated flurries.
high temperatures on friday will only get into the mid to upper
teens, northwest ohio counties may only get into the lower teens.

saturday morning will start cold with lows in the upper single
digits, but will rebound rather nicely with highs getting into the
mid 30s as ridging begins to move into the region from the west
and by sunday highs will finally get into the balmy 40s on sunday
and monday. guidance seems to be struggling with the exact timing
on the next system but have opted to keep the current thinking
with a few disturbances moving through the area with the first
burst on monday into tuesday and again tuesday evening into
wednesday. with the warmer temperatures still in place
chances of light precipitation in liquid form is expected each of
the days. however, on early tuesday morning in northwest ohio
some graupel/snow pellets could mix in with the light rain.
keep in mind that the guidance seems to be at loggerheads with the
exact timing and development of next weeks system so some fine
tuning/adjustments will still be needed in coming days.

&&

.aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z thursday night)
issued at 1133 pm est wed feb 1 2023

southwest winds will continue today ahead of a strong cold front.
the front is initially expected to be dry; however, post-frontal
clouds including lake enhanced clouds are expected to spread over
northern indiana. have kept snow out of tafs for now as activity
should be more favored after 06z.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...small craft advisory from 10 am thursday to 4 pm est friday for
lmz043.

small craft advisory from 4 pm thursday to 4 pm est friday for
lmz046.

&&

$$

synopsis...andersen
short term...andersen
long term...andersen
aviation...skipper


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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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000
fxus63 kdtx 020453
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1153 pm est wed feb 1 2023


.aviation...

vfr conditions will continue into thursday, but eventually mvfr to
lower vfr stratus will filter south with the passage of an arctic
cold front during the late afternoon/evening. a few flurries may
occur along/behind this front as well, but with no restrictions to
vsby. southwest flow will become gusty thursday morning and remain
so as winds veer to the west and then northwest with fropa. gusts to
25 knots can be expected into the evening.

for dtw...an arctic cold front will pass through the terminal 22z-
00z thursday evening with a wind shift from southwest to northwest
with fropa. with wind gusts to near 25 knots, crosswind thresholds
may be approached especially as wind direction veers to 300-320
degrees during the evening.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings aob 5kft after 23z thursday evening, low
overnight.

* low for crosswind thresholds to be reached with northwest flow
behind cold frontal passage thursday evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 355 pm est wed feb 1 2023

discussion...

near term / rest of today through tonight

as of 355 pm est...chilly, but dry and tranquil conditions continue
across southeast michigan this afternoon with broad surface high
pressure in place across the lower great lakes. confluent flow aloft
has helped ensure stability through the atmospheric column yielding
abundant sunshine, despite occasionally breezy southwest flow at
times keeping wind chills generally in the 5-15 degree range.

heading into tonight, dry weather will continue as heights aloft
become more zonal in nature, and surface high pressure departs east
towards the mid-atlantic region. expansive clouds associated with
overrunning mixed precipitation across the tennessee, lower
mississippi, and texas regions will attempt to spill northward
across the ohio border at times through the night. otherwise, areas
generally south of i-69 should generally continue to see mainly
clear skies overnight, with increasing cloud coverage further north
in advance of a northern stream shortwave approaching lake superior.
continued steady southwest wind will keep low temperatures more
muted than last night, with low/mid teens across the region.

short term / thursday through friday night

thursday will start out quiet in advance of an approaching arctic
frontal boundary associated with the aforementioned northern stream
wave that will continue tracking eastward across the northern great
lakes, and eventually towards quebec by thursday evening. one of the
coldest airmasses of the season will accompany the arctic frontal
boundary (especially across the northeast), aided in part by the
rapid building of a 1040+ hpa surface high pressure into the upper
midwest by friday morning. ahead of the front, continued southwest
flow will strengthen with the building high pressure into the upper
midwest and surface low pressure spinning up invof of quebec,
promoting occasional gusts 20-30 mph. high temperatures will attempt
to make a run towards 30 degrees before the frontal approach as well.

timing of the arctic front passage across southeast michigan looks
to be in the 3pm-8pm timeframe during peak daytime heating, with the
potential for surface convergence along the front to promote
scattered snow shower activity. best dynamic forcing will be
stripping away further to the east with the shortwave with time,
along with a surge in midlevel dry air accompanying the frontal
passage. however, some sbcape (~50 j/kg) will be possible amidst a
steepening lllr environment with mixing heights increasing to around
5 kft, just enough to tap into the dgz. given the overall dry nature
of the forecast soundings, snow squall potential looks low, with
highest confidence in a potential sps being issued for areas north
of i-69 where insolation will intersect the frontal passage timing
the best. as the front progresses quickly southward, snow shower
coverage and potential should wane with time.

low temperatures thursday night will fall close to zero as the
beginning of the cold airmass builds into the region. behind the
arctic frontal passage, winds will flip to the northwest and
continue to remain breezy through the night. with the combination of
plummeting low temperatures and breezy conditions, wind chills will
fall well below zero thursday night, with minimum values flirting
with -15 f. a wind chill advisory still looks possible thursday
night into friday morning, especially for northern areas.

850 hpa temps by friday morning per spc upper air climatology will
be near record cold values for this time of year as temps push -25 c
across portions of the thumb (with the coldest air pushing into the
northeast). despite building surface high pressure, lingering
cyclonic flow may allow for a few flurries here and there friday,
although it will be tough with plentiful dry air in the 5-15 kft
layer. after high temperatures friday struggling to reach the low
teens, friday night will also see low temperatures flirt with zero.

long term / saturday through tuesday

the rush of cold air will be relatively short-lived with a return to
above-normal temperatures by the end of the weekend and into early
next week. high temperatures by next tuesday will rebound into the
40s with a return for scattered rain showers in advance of the next
frontal system.

marine...

southwest winds gusting to 30 knots this afternoon will relax
slightly tonight in the wake of a weak system exiting the area. this
changes by thursday afternoon as the next system racing across
ontario drives an arctic cold front south through the central great
lakes. a tightening gradient and reinforcing surge of colder air
looks to support northwest gales (35-40kts) through latter half of
thursday into early friday as well as periods of heavy freezing
spray. a gale warning and heavy freezing spray warning have been
issued for all open waters of lake huron for this period. unsettled
pattern persists into the weekend as the great lakes continue to
reside under an arctic airmass/upper level troughing.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 10 am thursday to 4 am est friday for lhz361-362.

heavy freezing spray warning from 10 am thursday to 4 am est friday
for lhz361-362.

gale warning from 4 pm thursday to 10 am est friday for lhz363-
462>464.

heavy freezing spray warning from 4 pm thursday to 10 am est friday
for lhz363-462>464.

small craft advisory until 4 am est friday for lhz421.

small craft advisory from 4 am thursday to 4 am est friday for
lhz441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....dg
discussion...irl
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.