Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
813
fxus61 kcle 091149
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
749 am edt sat aug 9 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure will persist over the region through monday before
a cold front approaches on tuesday. this front will waver over
the great lakes through mid to late week.

&&

.near term /through sunday/...
the near term period will be influenced by surface high pressure
across the eastern conus and an upper ridge building east
across the region. the ridge axis will likely move into the area
this afternoon or this evening before slowly moving east through
sunday. warm air advection will occur on the back side of the
ridge/surface high, resulting in warming temperatures and
building humidity starting today. currently think that
subsidence from the surface high will prevent
showers/thunderstorms from developing, however similar to
yesterday there may be some diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms along the lake breeze in nw pa and possibly far ne
oh this afternoon. a few high res members are hinting at some
potential for isolated showers and storms on the back side of
the ridge sunday afternoon as well. with that being said,
confidence in the placement and coverage of showers is too low
to introduce any pops to any portion of the period at this
point. will continue to monitor trends in high res guidance and
adjust the forecast as needed. either way, diurnal cumulus and a
lake breeze are anticipated each afternoon.

return flow will yield high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower
90s today with the hottest temperatures anticipated along and
west of i-75. temperatures may be a couple of degrees warmer on
sunday. dew points will likely rise into the mid to upper 60s
starting today, although locations along the lakeshore in
northwestern and north-central ohio may experience dew points in
the lower 70s. overnight lows will be in the 60s tonight.

&&

.short term /sunday night through tuesday night/...
warm air advection/return flow will continue through monday as
high pressure slowly shifts east of the local area. the majority
of showers/thunderstorms will remain to the west of the area due
to lack of forcing, although pops may need to be added if
confidence in any lake breeze-driven showers/storms increases.
shower/thunderstorm chances return by tuesday afternoon as a
cold front and upper trough approach from the northwest. the
atmosphere will be quite juicy with dew points in the upper 60s
to lower 70s so will need to keep an eye on the potential for
locally heavy rainfall, although the recently dry weather
pattern should mitigate the flooding risk.

warm temperatures and high humidity will continue through he
short term period with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
expected each day. increased clouds/rain chances may allow temps
to be a few degrees cooler on tuesday. overnight lows will be
above normal in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.long term /wednesday through friday/...
the aforementioned cold front will waver across the great lakes
for mid to late week with a series of disturbances rippling
east along the frontal boundary. there`s still a lot of
uncertainty in the exact location of the front and its resulting
influence over the area, but shower and thunderstorm chances
will most likely continue through friday. depending on the
placement of the front, heavy rain remains the main concern
during the long term period given the moist air mass and the
east-to-west orientation of the frontal boundary. high
temperatures will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows
remaining above normal.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
high pressure extending from new england to the appalachians
will continue to influence the region today. dry conditions are
expected with scattered clouds near 5k feet and some cirrus.
vfr conditions will continue through the taf cycle with the
exception being haze at eri at the start of the period. this
should improve quickly this morning.

light southerly winds of 5-10 knots are expected except at cle
and eri where lake breezes with a wind shift to the north is
possible around 18z at eri and towards 21z at cle.

outlook...widespread vfr likely through monday. isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are forecast
this tuesday through wednesday.

&&

.marine...
good marine conditions will continue on lake erie through the
weekend as high pressure over new england continues to influence the
eastern great lakes. light south winds will give way to lake breezes
each afternoon through monday with waves of generally 1 foot or
less. a weak front will approach lake erie from the northwest on
tuesday with southwest winds of 5-15 knots and a chance of
thunderstorms. the front tends to stall in the vicinity and we do
not see a real wind shift around to the north until thursday as high
pressure strengthens north of the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...15
near term...15
short term...15
long term...15
aviation...10
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
627
fxus63 kiwx 091740
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
140 pm edt sat aug 9 2025

.key messages...

- hot and humid through monday with highs in the upper 80s to
near 90 and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

- chances for showers and storms returns next week, with low
confidence on exact timing and locations to be impacted.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 234 am edt sat aug 9 2025

very few changes to the forecast package this morning. still
expecting hot and humid conditions this weekend with ridging
pushing into the area bringing high temperatures each day right
around 90 degrees coupled with surface dew points generally in
the low to mid 70s. this will bring heat indices or feels like
temperatures in the low to mid 90s each day through monday.

the troughing over the northern plains states will slowly push
eastward into our far western portions of the cwa by sunday
afternoon increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms and will
work its way east through the remainder of the forecast area on
monday. this is in the wake of the ridging that will push south
and east out of the area. still uncertainty in the exact storm
coverage and intensity as there will be a more scattered nature
to the showers/storms with instability as the main driver.

next week there will be chances for showers and storms mainly
diurnally and instability driven with a more zonal flow aloft
and slightly cooler temperatures through most of the work week.
still indications that next weekend we will see another shot of
hot and humid airmass as a more broad ridging pattern emerges
over the region.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z sunday/...
issued at 139 pm edt sat aug 9 2025

plenty of dry air remains keeping the area in vfr conditions through
the period. additional taf groups will be used for introducing
10 kt sustained levels in and out. trajectories stay
consistently out of the south through the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...roller

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
122
fxus63 kdtx 091632
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1232 pm edt sat aug 9 2025

.key messages...

- hot and muggy weather builds in this weekend with heat index well
into the 90s today through monday.

-dry over the weekend, with a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms returning early next week.

&&

.aviation...

the persistence of low to mid level high pressure across the mid
atlantic and eastern great lakes will maintain strong stability
across se mi today and tonight, which will inhibit late day
convective development. there will be enough low level moisture to
support a scattered diurnal cu field. the southerly gradient and
daytime heating will sustain south winds around 10 knots. winds will
weaken slightly with the onset of nighttime cooling this evening.

for dtw/d21 convection... thunderstorms are not expected through
the taf period.

threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 332 am edt sat aug 9 2025

discussion...

fairly quiet this weekend in terms of convection as strong ridging
provides a nice cap through sunday and possibly sunday night. the
upper level trough over the northern plains will shift slightly
eastward into the midwest through this time while the 500 mb vort
max and attendant surface low shift northeast into manitoba and
ontario. this will draw the cold front closer to the region but it
should stall from the up down through wi and ia. the narrow corridor
of the strong low level jet core will hold to our west as well
resulting in several rounds of convection through this time. se mi
will be capped with strong southerly warm air advection ahead of the
front. broad surface ridge over the eastern conus will remain
overhead while a min level ridge strengthens all under the
amplified, positively tilted upper level ridge positioned over the
great lakes. there will be plenty of convection upstream which will
start spreading over western and northern lower sunday and sunday
night as the cold front drifts closer, but we may stay dry through
the weekend. we`ll have to watch to see if any outflow boundaries can
spread the convection further east than guidance suggests.

a bigger concern this weekend will be a return of the hot and humid
air. 500mb heights around 591-593 dam (consistently over the last
couple days) will help boost temps up a couple degrees from
yesterdays mid-upper 80s leading to widespread temps near 90 into
the low 90s through the saginaw valley. dewpoints around 70, could
mix down a little this afternoon, but will combine with the temps to
result in heat indices in the mid 90s. if dewpoints can hold up
around 70s could see some upper 90s at times as well. similar
situation sunday so could see some cumulative effects of the heat
piling up. could also have some clouds work east into the area from
the convection upstream, though confidence is low in this with the
stout ridge in place. headlines are not expected today and we`ll
monitor for possibility of issuance for sunday.

some 90s could stick around into monday before the cold front drifts
east and setup up over lower mi which will linger through mid week.
this will knock temps down a bit due to increased cloud cover and
possible rounds of showers and thunderstorms. so temps are expected
to hold above normal this week in the mid to upper 80s (low 80s is
normal).

marine...

quieter marine conditions with respect to storm return overnight
under influence of mid-atlantic high pressure, ensuring southwest
flow through the weekend. meanwhile, a strong low pressure system
stalls over manitoba and triggers numerous thunderstorm complexes
west of the great lakes. these complexes are expected to fizzle out
by the time they reach lake huron, although brief wind shifts and/or
an isolated thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out across
northern lake huron during peak heating. higher confidence in a dry
forecast exists with southward extend afforded by a strong capping
inversion. by early next week, a second low develops over southern
ontario and tracks just north of lake superior, drawing a cold front
through the area and clearing out the warm/humid airmass mid-week.
southwest winds shift to the northwest as a result of this frontal
passage.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...drk
marine.......mv/bt


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.