Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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044
fxus61 kcle 260824
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
424 am edt sat apr 26 2025

.synopsis...
low pressure will track east to new england today while a trough
lingers across the eastern great lakes. high pressure will build
southeast across the region tonight through sunday night. a warm
front will lift north on monday with a cold front settling back
south on tuesday evening.

&&

.near term /through sunday/...
the cold front is pushing south across lake erie early this morning
and should be southeast of the area by sunrise. the gradient
tightens up as surface low pressure moves east and cold advection
will usher in a much cooler airmass than we have experienced the
last couple days. for areas from canton to youngstown, the high
temperature for the day may occur early this morning, while areas in
northwest ohio will see some clearing this afternoon and reach their
high temperature later today. the coldest air will be focused across
eastern lake erie towards nw pennsylvania with 850mb temperatures
reaching as low as -3c by this evening. conditions will feel much
cooler with northwest winds gusting to 25-30 mph and wind chill
values in the east dipping into the 30s and 40s this afternoon.

while most of the rain has departed the local area, scattered light
showers are likely to accompany the cold front this morning near and
downwind of lake erie. this is also located ahead of a closed upper
level low pushing southeast through the central great lakes. the
airmass is not cold enough for much lake enhancement but low level
convergence along the lakeshore with northwesterly upslope flow
may contribute through mid-morning. mid-level dry air wraps in
by this afternoon and precipitation should come to an end.
clearing will be slow today with cyclonic flow holding on in
eastern portions of the area into this afternoon. clouds may
finally scatter out just before sunset this evening for areas
along and east of i-77. high pressure will build southeast into
the area overnight. with the cool airmass in place, some areas
of frost area possible where temperatures reach the mid-30s and
winds drop off enough. this looks to primarily be focused in a
swath from southern lorain county to wayne, holmes, and stark
counties. while temperatures will be cool enough in nw
pennsylvania, enough mixing is expected to limit frost
formation. the day shift may need to evaluate if any areas need
a frost advisory for tonight. following a cool night, sunday
will be a pleasant day with nearly full sun. temperatures will
range from near normal(mid 60s) in nw ohio to mid 50s(slightly
below normal) in ne ohio and nw pennsylvania.

&&

.short term /sunday night through tuesday night/...
the main concern for the short term period will be the potential for
strong to severe storms ahead of a cold front tuesday afternoon and
evening. model guidance continues to indicate the development of an
elevated mixed layer across the central plains, with a plume of mid-
level lapse rates around 7 c/km expected to arrive into the great
lakes region immediately following a warm frontal passage late
monday night into early tuesday morning. in response, mlcape will
rise to around 1500 j/kg by tuesday afternoon with southwest bulk
shear vectors around 35 to 40 knots. the current environmental space
suggests that all hazards would be possible if storms were to form,
including large hail, damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and
heavy rain.

the current spc swody5 slight risk appears reasonable given the
environmental parameter space, though there remains uncertainty on
location of storm initiation, particularly with the most recent 0z
model suite. morning convection associated with monday night`s
storms across the upper midwest could lay outflow boundaries which
could be the focus for thunderstorm initiation tuesday afternoon. in
this case, storms would likely be favored to form to the south and
southeast of the area. the second scenario which would favor
increased strong to severe storm chances in our area is for storms
to form along a pre-frontal trough tuesday afternoon and evening,
closer to the better mid-level jet energy focused around the central
great lakes. still plenty of fine details to work out over the next
few forecast iterations so stay tuned.

otherwise, mostly quiet weather is expected sunday night through
monday under the influence of high pressure. will need to monitor
low temperatures sunday night into early monday for a low-end frost
threat across the interior portions of northeast ohio as
temperatures are forecast to fall into the upper 30s. under mostly
clear skies and light winds, a few spots could fall into the mid-
30s.

&&

.long term /wednesday through friday/...
the tuesday system will drag a cold front south across the great
lakes tuesday night into wednesday, with high pressure favored to
briefly build in from the north. this cold front will become a
stationary front just south of the area on wednesday. this
stationary front is expected to eventually lift back north through
the area on thursday as another system develops across the southern
plains and moves northeast towards the ohio valley.

shower and thunderstorms appear most likely late thursday afternoon
and thursday night as this system moves directly overhead or just to
the north of the area. modest mid-level southwest flow of 40 knots
would be favorable for some storm organization on thursday, though
lower instability values and poor mid-level lapse rates should limit
any substantial severe threat. nonetheless, a moist boundary layer
and multiple rounds of showers and storms could yield a heavy rain
threat thursday and thursday night. will be something to watch in
the days ahead. this system will drag a surface cold front east
through the area on friday as an upper-level trough dives south
across the great lakes. periods of rain will likely continue on
friday, aided by the upper trough. a secondary cold front will
follow behind the trough friday night.

&&

.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
rain in the vicinity of cak/yng should depart to the east
through 08z. a few light showers can not be ruled out overnight
as the cold front pushes south across lake erie but given the
scattered nature will just cover this with a vicinity shower at
eri. ceilings are settling into the ifr range across ne ohio
while some breaks in the thicker cloud cover are moving into
northwest ohio. expect ceilings to lower into the mvfr range in
nw ohio while ne ohio could see low ifr conditions in the 09-13z
window. the cold front will move through by about 10z with a
wind shift to the northwest behind the front. winds will be
breezy on saturday with most locations gusting between 20-25
knots. ceilings will rise to mvfr through the morning and
gradually start to scatter out from west to east beginning
around 18z in nw ohio and reaching cle around 23z. it will take
into the evening for clouds to clear out of yng/eri.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
tuesday.

&&

.marine...
rough marine conditions are expected today across lake erie, with
small craft advisories posted along the central and eastern basins
as northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots arrive behind a cold front this
morning. winds across the western basin of lake erie will be
slightly lower in the 15 to 20 knot range, and given the smaller
fetch, opted against a small craft advisory at this time. conditions
will gradually improve from west to east across lake erie saturday
night into sunday as high pressure settles in. the next opportunity
for small craft conditions may arrive on tuesday, as south to
southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots develop ahead of a cold front.
will also need to monitor the potential for a few strong to severe
storms to impact the lake tuesday afternoon and evening. winds will
shift towards the northwest and north behind a cold front tuesday
night into wednesday, around 15 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez145-
146.
small craft advisory until 4 am edt sunday for lez147>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...10
near term...10
short term...kahn
long term...kahn
aviation...10
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 260609
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
209 am edt sat apr 26 2025

.key messages...

- partly to moostly cloudy and cool tonight with lows in the
40s.

- cooler temperatures on saturday in the 50s and low 60s will
give way to the mid 30s to low 40s saturday night. frost will
be possible in areas west of in-31 and north of us-6.
temperatures trend warmer through tuesday.

- strong to severe thunderstorms possible across the area
tuesday afternoon into early wednesday morning. still
considerable uncertainty on the details at this time.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 231 pm edt fri apr 25 2025

weaker vort maxes helped along by the upper jet to the north forces
a weak sfc low as it moves eastward today. relatively weak moisture
transport from the south is generally out of the southwest draped
south of us-24 today. mucape resides in the flow with the moisture
and relative mild temperatures through the column allow for the
chance for some embedded thunder especially where the better
convergence resides, but given the weak flow, severe weather will be
kept at a minimum. could see some locally heavy rain this evening
before the rain shuts off.

tonight, the sfc low shifts eastward and, as it does so, an upper
low deepens and stronger northwest winds come in on its backside for
late tonight/saturday morning. despite the cooler air arriving, the
excited winds are expected to keep fog at bay. saturday am lows will
dip into the low 40s for highs as the marine airmass comes in off
lake mi. caa is expected to continue on saturday providing cooler
temps in the 50s to low 60s south and east, away from lake mi. high
pressure follows on the backside of the developing upper low and
this is expected to keep the weekend dry, but we`ll be wattled
with the relative cool temps. some frost is possible on sunday
morning as temps dip into the mid 30s as high pressure moves
through, winds go light to calm and minimal cloud cover exists
to impede radiational cooling.

a warming trend from highs in the 50s on saturday to highs in the
70s on monday is helped along by the arrival of south winds on
sunday and southwest winds on monday. a warm front pushes through
monday night setting up a cold front to push through tuesday
evening. monday looks to be on the dry side, but will continue to
feel more humid as dew points increase into the 50s and 60s by the
end of the day. this sets up tuesday to have dew points rise into
the mid 60s out in front of the arriving front. as currently
depicted, anything that might form out in front of the front would
be forming in more boundary-parallel shear and may have a chance to
train. this would be the main cause of heavy rain if it was going to
be a hazard as storm motions appear to be quick and the mbe vectors
appear unfavorable for back building. should instability be able to
form in front of the front and be unimpeded by cloud cover or the
like, boundary-perpendicular shear exists closer to the front and
may be able to get a few supercells to form. this would put all
hazards on the table with damaging wind and hail being the primary
threats, but a tornado cannot be ruled out. of course, there`s also
the question of timing of the cold front and debris clouds left over
from the warm front that could completely derail this severe chance.

the front ends up draped west to east across the area on
wednesday with a high pressure system to our north.
showers/storms will be possible along or just south of the
baroclinic zone, which has model confluence on location in the
latest model runs. while a majority of the rain is forecast to
stay south, cannot completely rule out rain across our 1 to 2
tiers of counties depending on eventual front position. rain
chances increase again towards the end of the week (probably
just thursday) as a coupled jet scenario allows a developing low
to lift north out of the southern us. friday into the weekend
leans dry again as another vort max drops into the area from
canada.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 147 am edt sat apr 26 2025

predominantly ifr/lifr for the start of the taf period, then
improve towards vfr by the afternoon and evening hours. as of
this writing we have stratus building in beneath the inversion
and advancing southeastward. ksbn is resting around 500 feet
right now, with much of the guidance suggesting ceilings could
fall as low as 300-400 feet through at least 9z. models are a
little conflicted in regards to if this lower deck will
spread/develop into kfwa, and if it does it looks to remain
around 600 to 700 feet. currently kfwa rests at vfr with a
few clouds at 900 feet, and satellite/obs show the stratus over
hhg, kasw, and we have it here at kiwx [700-800 feet]. have a
tempo for mvfr as i suspect we`ll at least have ceilings around
1000-2000 feet soon-but expect the period to start out a bit
lower at around 700 feet. drier air will infiltrate the area and
as it does we`ll see ceilings lift towards mvfr through the
middle of the day tomorrow before clearing out in the evening.
winds will be west to northwest, gusting to around 25kts at
ksbn and around 22kts at kfwa. expect gustiness may damper later
into the night and become more intermittent-especially at kfwa.
n-nw winds gusting to around 23kts saturday will eventually
become light and variable by the evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 260735
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
335 am edt sat apr 26 2025

.key messages...

- dry weather expected this weekend, with progressively warmer
temperatures through tuesday.

- a cold front arrives tuesday, bringing the next chance for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.discussion...

upper-level closed low with compact shortwave will travel over the
northern great lakes this morning with the greater upper-level
trough strengthening through the afternoon. much cooler temperatures
hold over the cwa today as a result with daytime highs holding in
the 50s. interaction with lingering moisture in the wake of the
departing low pressure system will bring the very low chance for a
shower mainly across the thumb through the early afternoon, but
otherwise, influence of a building high pressure keeps conditions
dry for most locations. afternoon mixing depths will tap into 30
knots winds aloft, bringing the potential to see peak gusts ranging
between 25-30 mph, isolated 35 mph, during daylight hours today.

sprawling high pressure centers right over the great lakes tomorrow
morning and afternoon, bringing the continuation of dry weather with
limited cloud cover. residual influence of the thermal trough
combined with efficient radiational cooling with the lack of cloud
canopy will allow temperatures to drop down into the mid 30s outside
of the urban heat island footprint. development of frost will be
possible prior to sunrise. late april solar insolation will then
allow temperatures to peak in the mid 60s for a high, outside of the
lake influence along the lake huron shoreline.

temperatures continue to climb monday through tuesday, initially
from return flow of the departing high pressure system, with a
greater boost of thermal advection then coming from a projected
closed low that arrives across the rockies on sunday, which will
open up while pivoting into the midwest through the early week
period, allowing the theta-e rich environment over the plains to
release across the great lakes. this extremely efficient push of
gulf moisture and thermal advection likely pushes temperatures into
the upper 70s to 80s by tuesday. this theta-e rich environment will
increase instability through the morning and afternoon hours with
eps mean values ranging anywhere between 1000-1400 j/kg across se mi
under a kinematically conducive environment where 0-6 km bulk shear
vectors range aoa 50 knots. showers and thunderstorms will be likely
ahead and along a cold front and with forcing aloft from an upper-
level wave.

the question this far out will surrounding timing of the frontal
boundary, and destabilization questions from any morning activity.
most of the guidance at this time supports the front clipping
portions of se mi from around port huron to adrian in the early
afternoon which would intersect early day destabilization, bringing
the chance for strong to severe weather. still, the parent wave is
just now arriving onshore, so adjustments will continue to be made
regarding the extent and timing of forcing leading into the event,
which will have great impacts on severe potential.

&&

.marine...

post-frontal cold advection amidst northwest flow promotes an uptick
in winds today, into the 15 to 20 knot range, which also facilitates
increased wave action along the southern lake huron nearshores. as
such, the small craft advisory remains in place for saginaw bay and
the southern huron nearshore zones until late this evening.
sufficiently steep low-level lapse rates mix down 25-30 knot gusts
via the 2-4 kft awl layer in conjunction with occasional wave
heights of 5-8 feet. the surface low continues to progress across
the eastern great lakes today, but the back edge will be slow to
exit, lingering over lake huron. the pressure gradient also relaxes
with time as high pressure eventually builds in from the upper
midwest, leading to weaker and more variable winds. a much more
potent low pressure system organizes off to the west monday into
tuesday featuring a warm sector with gusty winds, followed by a
strong cold front. expect a period of gusts to around 30 knots,
followed by linear convection along the frontal passage. low
potential (25 percent chance) exists for a brief period of gusts to
gales over saginaw bay.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1149 pm edt fri apr 25 2025

aviation...

shallow cold advection in the wake of a cold front will bring a
lowering inversion and a likelihood for mvfr stratus tonight. there
does remain a potential for ifr cigs with some chance at reduced
visibilities in light br, however, forecast soundings have trended
more optimistic. confidence is low on fog with a lack of clearing.
mvfr conditions at daybreak are expected to transition to vfr
ceilings for saturday afternoon.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......kgk
aviation.....cb


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.