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Lucas and Wood Counties

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000
fxus61 kcle 241040
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
640 am edt mon sep 24 2018

.synopsis...
a ridge of high pressure extending south across the local area will
move east of the area today. a warm front will lift north across the
region this evening. a ridge will build west from the appalachian
mountains into the local area tonight and remain nearly stationary
through tuesday. a cold front will move east across the region
tuesday night. high pressure over oklahoma will extend a ridge
northeast into the local area behind the cold front late tuesday
night. another high pressure will develop over the northeastern
united states thursday.

&&

.near term /through tuesday/...
amplification of an upper level ridge will take place over the
eastern pacific ocean today resulting in a deepening upper level
trough over the canadian prairies. this in turn will cause an upper
level ridge over the northeastern united states to amplify as well.
surface high pressure under the northeastern united states high
pressure will keep a strong ridge over the eastern quarter of the
united states today. a warm front at the surface is expected to
lift north across the region later today into this evening.
moisture with the front is expected to ramp up as well. the
front will produce showers across the local area. at this time,
instability is not expected to be substantial through tuesday
morning to warrant a threat for thunderstorms. however, ahead of
the cold front, some mixed layer instability develops tuesday
afternoon and there could be a few rumbles of thunder. but will
take another look again and if needed will add mention of
thunder tuesday afternoon. best chance of thunderstorms appear
they will hold off until tuesday night as the cold front moves
through the area. otherwise, with rain moving in and easterly
flow across the area ahead of the warm front, not expecting
temperatures to be quite as warm as yesterday. highs in the
lower 70s west to middle and upper 60s east. then, tonight, area
will be in the warm sector for the most part allowing
temperatures to hold in the lower to middle 60s. warm front may
stall over the eastern portions of the forecast area as it
struggles against the ridge building south along the appalachian
mountains. some of the cold air spilling west from the ridge
will keep temperatures in the upper 50s east portions. warm air
advection will push into the western portions of the area
tuesday with temperatures in the upper 70s. still may see a
struggle to get the warmer air into the east up against ridge.

&&

.short term /tuesday night through thursday night/...
showers and possibly thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of
the period. the models remain in fair agreement with the main
features during the period. a cold front will be about half away
across the area at 12z wednesday. have continued with high pops for
tuesday night but only a chance of thunderstorms given marginal
instability. there will however be good low level shear so things
will need to be watched. by midday wednesday locations west of i-71
should be mainly dry. by early evening the entire area should be
dry. there could be some one inch rain totals by the time the
precip ends. the remainder of the short term will be dry as high
pressure builds in. highs thursday will be a tad below normal.

&&

.long term /friday through sunday/...
a weak boundary will move across the area on friday and could kick
off a few showers downwind of the lake in the northwest flow. have
actually lowered precip chances slightly and this should not be a
big deal. over the weekend a warm front will develop across the
region. some precip is expected along and north of this feature. by
saturday evening the front will be near the south shore of the lake
so through saturday night best chances for showers will be across
the north half of the area. the front will sag slightly south on
sunday spreading small precip chances into the southern end of the
area. coverage of the precip will be limited so no more than small
chance wording is needed. the location of the front will dictate
temperatures during the period. for the most part high temperatures
should be within a couple degrees of normal.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
clouds are spreading north as high pressure to the northeast
pushes east of the region. the clouds will be in response to a
warm front that will lift north across the area this evening.
showers are also expected to move north across the area as well
with the front. ceilings will gradually lower with time as the
front approaches and expecting mvfr dropping to ifr and possibly
lifr. ceilings are already down below 1000 feet at akron-canton
and mansfield. winds will increase as well with time to 10 to
15 knots. slightly higher winds expected at erie near the lake.

outlook...non-vfr into tuesday night then across ne oh/nw pa
wednesday into thursday.

&&

.marine...
easterly winds will become southeast toward evening and then south
as a warm front lifts north across the region overnight. it appears
that strongest winds will be in the middle of the lake. the
downslope set up for the nearshore off of erie is not ideal with the
flow a little south of what is needed for the best winds. with all
of that in mind will hold off on any small craft headlines for the
time being. speeds will peak the first half of tonight and then
diminish. south to southwest flow around 15 knots is then expected
till a cold front crosses the lake late tuesday night and wednesday
morning. winds will become northwest and increase behind the front
and small craft conditions appear likely through wednesday evening.
high pressure will dominate the end of the week with variable flow
under 15 knots expected both thursday and friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...lombardy
near term...lombardy
short term...kubina
long term...kubina
aviation...lombardy
marine...kubina

Fulton and Henry Counties

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000
fxus63 kiwx 241047
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
647 am edt mon sep 24 2018

.synopsis...
issued at 200 am edt mon sep 24 2018

clouds will increase from south to north through the morning hours
with rain showers becoming likely late this morning and especially
this afternoon across much of northeast indiana and northwest
ohio. showers are expected again tonight through tuesday night.
isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight through tuesday
morning, but thunderstorm chances will increase tuesday afternoon
and evening as a cold front approaches from the west. a few of the
storms tuesday afternoon and evening may be strong to severe with
isolated strong wind gusts. cooler and dry conditions will spread
back into the region behind this system for wednesday.

&&

.short term...(today through tuesday night)
issued at 408 am edt mon sep 24 2018

low clouds and shower chances will expand north into the area later
this morning through this evening as a weak shortwave and associated
low level trough lifts northeast from the mid ms/western oh valleys.
more favorable forcing/moisture advection overlap continues to favor
areas east of i-69 mid afternoon into this evening for more
widespread/heavier shower activity as ramping llj and mid lvl wave
enhance deeper moisture convergence. lesser shower
coverage/persistence (more drizzle/stratus given lacking moisture
depth) is expected into nw in/sw mi by this aftn/eve. some elevated
instability will accompany this theta-e surge, so did continue with
a slight thunder mention for most locations otherwise.

a secondary surge of moisture associated with nocturnal low level
jet enhancement then likely keep showers going into the overnight
hours into tuesday morning near a trailing trough axis aligning from
near saint louis mo to detroit by tuesday. ample moisture continues
to support higher pops, though deeper moisture/forcing exits east
which may result in lighter scattered showers or drizzle by this
time.

attention then turns to coverage/intensity/chances of convection mid
afternoon tuesday into tuesday night as a strong upper level trough
translates east into the northern high plains today...and the
western/northern great lakes by tuesday night. deepening
southwest flow on the leading edge of associated height falls will
provide adequate deep shear for a severe threat if low clouds can
thin/scatter out enough to yield 1000-1500 j/kg of mlcape by late
afternoon. whether low clouds clear enough for more robust
convection remains highly uncertain with the main cold front and
more pronounced upper level forcing not reaching western portions
of the forecast area until mid evening...and points east after
midnight. lingering low level moisture/trough axis would need to
be the forcing mechanism pre-frontal during the afternoon. a low
threat for iso-sct low topped supercells would exist near this if
greater instability is attained...though meager lapse
rates/forcing initially a significant limiting factor. convection
with the main front in the evening into nrn in/lower mi likely the
main threat (iso/sct severe wind...though highly conditional).
0-1 km bulk shear/srh and low level cape profiles values do also
suggest a very low tornado threat tuesday evening.

&&

.long term...(wednesday through sunday)
issued at 408 am edt mon sep 24 2018

cold front clears east in wake of seasonably strong upper trough
wednesday morning. decent low level cold advection will result in a
cooler/less humid day with some stratocu around. quiet/cool wx
continues into the second half of the week, followed by renewed rain
chances over the weekend as a frontal zone sets up w-e over the
midwest/great lakes.

&&

.aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z tuesday morning)
issued at 645 am edt mon sep 24 2018

departure of low level ridge axis has allowed for overnight
veering of low level winds, and more favorable trajectories for
significant moisture transport. satellite imagery early this
morning depicts leading edge of mvfr clouds in the 1000-2000 foot
range encroaching on kfwa at 10z. mvfr cigs will overspread
remainder of northern indiana this morning, likely reaching ksbn
somewhere in the 15z-16z timeframe. ifr cigs also a possibility
especially by this evening into the overnight. scattered rain
showers will likely to lift across northeast indiana this
afternoon in association with low level theta-e advection, with
most widespread showers anticipated late afternoon/early evening
as stronger low level jet forcing and mid level trough approach
from the southwest. isolated thunder also a possibility at kfwa,
but with limited nature to elevated instability will omit from
forecast.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...none.
&&

$$

synopsis...marsili
short term...steinwedel
long term...steinwedel
aviation...marsili


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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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000
fxus63 kdtx 241054
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
654 am edt mon sep 24 2018

.aviation...

early day window exists for vfr conditions as the existing dry and
stable low level easterly flow holds firm. deep plume of low level
moisture now entering the northern ohio valley will then
aggressively advance into the region this afternoon. the initial
moisture surge will bring a progressive reduction into mvfr
restrictions during this time. further deterioration in conditions
anticipated by evening, with widespread ifr to possible lifr
emerging for the tonight period. some pockets of light rain or
drizzle may emerge prior to sunset, but with greater potential of
rainfall focused tonight as a warm front advances across the region.
low chance for embedded elevated thunderstorms, chances too limited
to include a defined mention. prevailing east-southeast winds
through the period, peaking at 10-12 kts late today.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs aob 5kft after 15z monday.

* very low for thunderstorms tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 310 am edt mon sep 24 2018

discussion...

ideal late september day yesterday with max temperatures right where
they should be for this time year, around 70 degrees.

moisture pooled along the ohio river early this morning will be
lifting north today as sheared out shortwave/upper level pv over
western ohio valley tracks northeast. pw values increasing to
around 1.5 inches over southeast michigan toward 00z tuesday. waves
of isentropic ascent/moisture advection will saturate the low
levels, and should be able to generate light rain this
evening/tonight, per local sref weighted probabilistic guidance.
even marginal instability (showalter index slightly negative) to
potentially support a few thunderstorms, although the low level jet
core tonight looks to be tracking just to our east.

what happens to the low clouds on tuesday will go a long way in
determining out severe chances as cold front arrives during the
evening hours. raw 00z nam output suggests surface dew pts rising
into the upper 60s, with mlcape of 1000-1300 j/kg north of m-59,
closer to the mid level cold air (500 mb temps -10 to -13 c). if
that amount of instability verifies, 0-6 km bulk shear of 50+ knots
will support a severe wind threat, as large scale ascent arrives
from the strong upper level trough entering the western great lakes.
spc day 2 indicates a slight chance of severe, as increasing 0-1 km
bulk shear (30+ knots) coming up from the south and arriving during
the evening hours also suggests a low chance of tornadoes with
sufficient instability/low level cape, which remains highly
uncertain at this time.

cold front clearing the state by sunrise wednesday, with pretty good
low level cold advection during the morning hours, offset by
sunshine underneath mid level dry slot. although, a decent cu up is
expected, along with breezing conditions. 850 mb temps of 3 to 5 c
at 21z suggests max temps holding in the 60s, setting us up for cool
night as mins fall into 40s wednesday night. should be just enough
gradient/southwest winds to keep mins from cratering within the dry
airmass (pw values around half an inch), but locations near the
southern michigan border stand the best chance of going calm, and
potentially sneaking into upper 30s, and bringing a chance of fog,
especially around the warm inland lakes.

another potent upper level trough will rotate through the western
great lakes thursday evening, with the cold front on schedule to
slip through southeast michigan by sunrise friday. tight baroclinic
zone at 850 mb then looks to be draped across southern lower
michigan through the weekend, and subtle upper level shortwaves
riding along the zonal flow may be enough to get mid level fgen
showers going, and low chance pops will be carried. on monday, a
stronger ripple/low pressure forecasted to ride along the front (per
00z euro) to support a much higher chance of rain.

marine...

a moderate early day easterly flow will gradually veer to
southeasterly while strengthening through the day. winds gusts will
peak near 30 knots at times over portions of central lake huron
early tonight. the onshore flow will maintain significant wave
action over the next 24 hours, with maximum wave heights reaching 10
to 15 feet over much of central lake huron. wind will then diminish
on tuesday as low pressure moves over the waters. however, moderate
to fresh northwest flow will quickly redevelop on wednesday as a
large canadian high builds from the west.

hydrology...

numerous showers are expected this evening and overnight as a warm
front lifts across the state. rainfall totals of one quarter to one
half-inch are anticipated with this round of rainfall. the chance
for additional showers, along with isolated thunderstorms, will
exist tuesday and tuesday night. a cold front will sweep through the
region tuesday night, bringing drier conditions for the late week
period. no flooding is expected through the upcoming week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt tuesday for lhz441>443.

small craft advisory until 4 am edt tuesday for lhz421.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...sf
marine.......mr
hydrology....mr

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.