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Lucas and Wood Counties

link
000
fxus61 kcle 162335
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
635 pm est tue jan 16 2018

.synopsis...
a trough of low pressure will move east across the area tonight.
high pressure will build southeast toward the deep south and extend
a ridge north into the local area by thursday. the high will be the
dominating weather feature across the area through thursday. a weak
trough will swing east across the area thursday night.

&&

.near term /through wednesday night/...
lowered temps several degrees for the 630 update. would have
dropped more, but winds will stay up all night and expect
clouds to move in overnight to help keep temps from tanking.

original discussion...
a surface trough will slide east across the area as a reflection of
the upper level trough. the upper level trough will remain
positively tilted as it moves to the east coast wednesday night.

flow should remain fairly well aligned overnight for some lake
effect snow showers to continue along the lake shore of erie county
pennsylvania. snow is expected to be light. another area of snow
will slide into northwest ohio in advance of the surface trough.
moisture streaming northeast continues to place youngstown in an
area of light snow or flurries. this is basically ending during the
evening hours.

as trough swings through tonight, the rest of the forecast period
looks to be dry as high pressure begins to dominate the local area.

cold pool of arctic air will slide east across the local area
tonight but will begin to modify slightly. therefore, i am
anticipating low temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer
tonight compared to this morning. as high pressure takes over, we
should start to see a gradual warming trend starting tomorrow. highs
tomorrow should be about 10 degrees warmer than today. 850 mb
temperatures start to flirt with the 0 degree c mark by wednesday
night.

&&

.short term /thursday through friday night/...
an upper level shortwave will brush far northeastern oh
thursday evening into friday morning bringing a slight chance of
snow showers to erie county pa early friday morning.
otherwise...upper level high pressure will build over the area
thursday night into at least the first part of the weekend. this
will result in a warming trend across the forecast area...with
daytime high temperatures just above freezing friday afternoon.
by saturday...temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid
40s...around 6 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

light rain returns as early as saturday afternoon as a warm front
lifts north across the area.

&&

.long term /saturday through tuesday/...
the long term begins saturday night with models in agreement showing
a surface high a cross the southeastern states and low pressure in
the central plains. mild southerly flow will be across the ohio
valley between these two systems. with this overrunning flow out of
the deep south would expect sufficient moisture will be in the area
for clouds so will have with mostly cloudy skies saturday night.
will only have a low chance pop given lack of any stronger forcing.
sunday models diverge on moisture with the ecmwf remaining drier
while the gfs would support at least chance pops with a warm front
in the area. will side closer to the gfs here and have chance pops
for the day. sunday night models bring a cold front into the area
from the west ahead of a deepening low in the upper midwest. may not
be a lot occurring in the evening but the front comes in after
midnight so will continue with likely pops west half. on monday will
have likely pops east as the front continues east. by afternoon
models show wrap around moisture back into the northwest so will
have likely pops there as well. precip should be mostly rain but
could begin to see a change late afternoon northwest so will have a
mix. will continue a mix everywhere monday evening then turn precip
to snow as it ends overnight. tuesday looks dry. sunday and monday
temps above normal however temps will be dropping during the
afternoon on monday. tuesday looks close to normal.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
trough will swing across forecast area overnight. expect mvfr
cigs to develop with a few flurries.

outlook...non-vfr possible late sunday.

&&

.marine...
southwest winds will generally remain at or below 10 kts
through wednesday afternoon. by wednesday afternoon surface high
pressure will strengthen over ar with deep surface low pressure
north into canada resulting in an increase in southwest winds. winds
will remain between 15 and just over 20 kts through at least
saturday morning as surface pressure gradient remain tight across
the region. winds will begin to subside saturday morning and become
more southerly by sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...lombardy
near term...djb/lombardy
short term...riley
long term...tk
aviation...djb
marine...riley

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 162344
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
644 pm est tue jan 16 2018

.synopsis...
issued at 307 pm est tue jan 16 2018

lake effect snow tonight over far northwest indiana with 2 to 5
inches of snow expected. cold tonight and tomorrow before a
warming trend towards the end of the week into the weekend. highs
in the upper 40s to near 50 this weekend before a system moves
into the area on sunday with rain likely.

&&

.short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 307 pm est tue jan 16 2018

focus still remains on lake effect event this afternoon through
the overnight. more agreement in the latest guidance to suggest
heavy lake effect band to reside over far northwest portions of
in. current radar and satellite imagery show a single north-south
oriented band across lake michigan with a mesovort along the
southern extent. band moves inland this afternoon over lots cwa
and then will slowly progress eastward.

biggest uncertainty is the intensity of the band as it moves east
and how far east it will go. while models are in better agreement
on heavy snow band entering laporte, berrien, and starke with snow
accumulations of 3-5 inches with greatest amounts near the lake in
the advisory area nam12 appears to be handling the band well this
morning and shows a single strong band that remains intense as it
moves towards the east. however, some hires guidance wants to
keep the band over our current advisory and not move east. kept
tight gradient in snow amounts with totals less farther east
outside of the advisory area because lack of agreement. dropped
the watch from marshall and st. joseph due to less expected snow
and not expected to upgrade to warning. winds begin to back
towards the west this evening ending the lake effect snow.

&&

.long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 307 pm est tue jan 16 2018

relatively quiet long term forecast with milder temps into the
weekend. high pressure moves into the area with dry conditions
expected for the first part of the long term. next system to watch
is starting to move onshore in the pac nw and will dig its way
into the sw conus as a trough entrenches itself over the western
us. system tracks to our nw bringing rain into the area by sunday
bringing heavy rain at times. concerning is the potential for
flooding due to melting snowpack as well as tropical connections
to the gulf of mexico. as system exits by monday backside snow
with colder air funneling in behind the exiting system.

&&

.aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z wednesday evening)
issued at 631 pm est tue jan 16 2018

main focus for this taf issuance will be to try to nail down the
timing and intensity for the les band`s possible arrival into sbn.
expect the les band to weaken as it moves onshore, which, on a
north-to-south orientation, would put it just west of sbn. think
there may be more of a glancing blow to sbn and have hedged for
mvfr flight conditions for now. will leave it to future issuances
if it appears it will be more impactful. flight conditions could
reach down into ifr should the les band hold together longer.
next, the remnant le clouds will move through by about 11 or 12z
so have introduced a 12z sct group to account for that.

fwa has mvfr conditions within light snow approaching from the
west and will continue that for just over an hour this forecast
period. behind that snow, expect a time of vfr conditions as the
column dries out, but then things look to moisten up again as the
lake effect clouds advect in from the west between 11z and 14z.
while it could approach mvfr during morning commute time, think it
stays just above that threshold for now. then things dry out at
fwa for the rest of wednesday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 6 am cst wednesday for inz003-012.

mi...winter weather advisory until 7 am est wednesday for miz077.

oh...none.
lm...none.
&&

$$

synopsis...heidelberger
short term...heidelberger
long term...heidelberger
aviation...roller


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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 162347
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
647 pm est tue jan 16 2018


.aviation...

elongated ribbon of potential vorticity will settle directly over
southeastern michigan now through the first few hours of the taf
period. center of lake aggregate troughing and center of surface low
pressure over southern lake huron basin will be extremely sensitive
to the max in convergence within narrowing and shearing trough axis.
already seeing signs of the demise for very weak ascent over lower
michigan with loss in coverage of light snow activity and rising of
stratocumulus cigs. this trend should continue for the next few
hours before accelerating with drier working in below 6 kft agl. for
this round of tafs will hang onto pessimistic clouds and will
reevaluate observational data this evening, amending as needed.
still expecting lake michigan plume to advect across and will need to
account for that sky fraction. main forecast item for wednesday will
be developing, gusty west winds 15 to 25 knots.

/dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cig aob 5kft tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 314 pm est tue jan 16 2018

discussion...

the sfc low which has been nearly stationary over the southern basin
of lake huron through the first half of the day will be exiting into
ontario late this afternoon/evening, dragging an associated sfc
trough axis south across the forecast area. as of 19z, the region of
enhanced convergence extends from the thumb region into the southern
saginaw valley. northeasterly low level flow from central lake huron
has been feeding lake moisture into this region of convergence. this
along with steepening low level lapse rates has led to brief
intervals of one inch per hour snowfall rates. the higher intensity
snow showers will work south this afternoon/evening with the
southward advancing trough/convergence axis. the convergence is
expected to weaken during the evening as the trough pushes into
metro detroit. this suggests both a lower coverage of snow showers
with weaker intensity across the srn portions of the forecast area
this evening. the brevity of forcing still suggests accums of an
inch or less. a little stronger convergence and better lake moisture
will however support locally higher accums across the thumb region,
possibly two or three inches.

mid level subsidence will take hold overnight as the elongated mid
level trough axis departs to the eastern great lakes. subtle surface
ridging nudging in behind the departing trough may allow some breaks
in the clouds, supporting min temps down into the upper single
digits above zero. mid level heights will then build across lower mi
on wednesday. the low level flow will back to the west-southwest
overnight into wed morning. while subsidence will lower inversion
heights, expect a release of remnant lake effect off lake michigan,
resulting in periodic strato cu and possible flurries across the
forecast area on wednesday. while low level warm air advection will
nudge wed daytime highs into the 20s, gusty southwest winds hold
wind chill readings in the single digits.

there is reasonably good agreement among the 12z model guidance in
showing a compact mid level wave traversing the northern great lakes
on thursday. this system will be moisture starved. lake enhancement
will also largely be confined to the northern great lakes as warm air
advection nudges 850mb temps toward +2 c over srn mi. so a dry
forecast will be maintain with the low level warming nudging daytime
highs into the low 30s.

a dampening upper level ridge will move overhead on friday as high
pressure over the southeast us allows return southwesterly flow to
continue streaming milder air into the region. this will bring dry,
"milder" conditions for friday as highs reach the upper 30s. an
upper level trough pivoting through the southwest us on saturday
will induce lee cyclogenesis over the central plains over the
weekend. ahead of this developing low pressure system, southerly
flow will increase through the weekend allowing temperatures to rise
further into the 40s along with moisture both saturday and sunday.
the uptick in moisture will bring increasing clouds and showers late
saturday into sunday. model guidance then continues to track the
central plains low pressure system west of lower michigan on monday.
this scenario would keep southeast michigan in the warm sector with
a period of rain while temperatures remain above freezing late
sunday into monday.

marine...

strong and unstable southwest flow will develop as high pressure
shifts south of the area on wednesday. gusts to marginal gales are
probable over most lake huron, including saginaw bay and the
northern nearshore waters of the thumb. gusts to strong gales are
anticipated over the central open waters. gale warnings are in
effect for the entire central corridor of the lake...including outer
saginaw bay. episodes of fresh to strong southwest flow will be
common for the remainder of the week while gust potential diminishes
owing to increasingly warm stable fetch.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 10 am to 10 pm est wednesday for lhz362-363-421-
441-462.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...sc/jd
marine.......jvc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.