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Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1108 pm edt sat aug 24 2019

.synopsis...
high pressure centered over eastern ontario will drift eastward
and reach northern new england by sunrise. low pressure is
expected to move eastward across southern canadian prairie on
sunday but will eventually reach central ontario mid week. there
will be a couple surges of cooler air next week with the first
arriving tuesday night.

&&

.near term /through sunday night/...
with high pressure still centered over the northern great lakes,
not expecting winds to fully decouple overnight. raised forecast
mins a couple degrees tonight as we hold onto a light east
wind. also allowed the high swimming risk to expire for cuyahoga
and lake counties.

previous discussion...an upper level trough will only slowly
move eastward through the night as high pressure persists at the
surface. we expect the cloud cover across the region to slowly
lift and likely dissipate shortly after sunset. mostly clear
overnight as winds begin to shift to an easterly downsloping
flow. this will keep the low levels of the atmosphere dry. as
winds decouple this evening and skies clear we should have a
decent radiational cooling night. if winds can drop off before
06z there could be a few interior locations that dip into the
upper 40s.

the downsloping flow will continue into sunday with winds slowly
shifting to the southeast. the downsloping flow and the expectation
for more sunshine will lead to warmer temperatures. highs
sunday afternoon should range from the mid 70s to around 80.

upper level ridging will be over the area by sunday night with
dry conditions expected. southerly flow will be on the increase
with low level moisture beginning to return ahead of a cold
front that will arrive during the week. lows sunday night will
range from the mid 50s to around 60.

&&

.short term /monday through tuesday night/...
the short term begins monday with models showing dry air across the
eastern half of the area and deep moisture moving into the western
counties in return flow from the ssw. aloft an upper trough will be
just to our west. this moisture works its way east across the area
during the day ahead of a warm front. will have chance pops for west
in the morning. for the afternoon will bring chance pops to the
central portion of the area with likely pops far west for showers
and a chance of a thunderstorm. monday night will continue with
chance pops east and likely pops west. tuesday afternoon a cold
front will move in from the west during the mid/late afternoon,
followed by drying overnight from the west as high pressure builds
in behind the boundary. will have likely pops west tuesday morning
with highest pops moving east in the afternoon and evening. after
midnight will dry out the west and continue with a chance pop east.
aside from a leftover shower nwrn pa wednesday will have a dry
forecast. highs upper 70s to near 80.

&&

.long term /wednesday through saturday/...
followed primarily the ecmwf for timing through the long term which
shows a cold front dropping south across the region saturday. this
could bring a shower or two to the area although models don`t show a
great deal of moisture with the boundary. aside from that, high
pressure will dominate the region. highs mainly mid and upper
70s.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
vfr conditions will continue through the taf cycle with high
pressure and a dry airmass over the region. scattered clouds
this evening near 6k feet will tend to clear. northeast winds
will become light easterly overnight, then veer to more
southeasterly on sunday.

outlook...non vfr possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms monday afternoon through tuesday night.

&&

.marine...
flow from the northeast at roughly 10 to 20 knots this afternoon
across lake erie supporting waves of roughly 3 to 4 feet from the
islands east. expecting winds to veer to more easterly through the
evening and early overnight time frame as high pressure north of the
area drifts east to quebec. by morning expect more of a southeast
flow at 10 to 15 knots. will allow the small craft advisory and
beach hazards statement expire at 10pm for lake and cuyahoga
counties but will extend the headlines for the remainder of the area
from lorain through ottawa counties through 3am as winds and waves
slowly diminish. sunday will again have to monitor as mainly east
winds again increase from the east at roughly 15 to 20 knots. winds
veer to the southeast by evening however, taking higher waves
offshore. monday winds remain from the southeast but diminish to 10
to 15 knots. flow will veer to south at 15 to 20 knots on tuesday as
a cold front approaches from the west. tuesday night the front will
move west to east across the lake turning winds westerly around 10
knots. wednesday and thursday look for west flow at 10 to 15 knots
as high pressure builds from the south.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 3 am edt sunday for ohz007-009-
010.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 3 am edt sunday for lez143>145.

&&

$$
synopsis...mm
near term...kec/mm
short term...tk
long term...tk
aviation...kec
marine...tk

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
734 pm edt sat aug 24 2019

.synopsis...
issued at 730 pm edt sat aug 24 2019

high pressure will continue to provide quiet weather this weekend.
another cool night is in store tonight, with low temperatures
dropping into the low to mid 50s. high temperatures on sunday will
reach into the upper 70s to around 80. chances for showers and
thunderstorms then return monday into tuesday.

&&

.short term...(tonight and sunday)
issued at 230 pm edt sat aug 24 2019

expansive ridging sfc and aloft will slowly shift off into new
england/se canada this period. tranquil wx will continue.

&&

.long term...(sunday night through friday)
issued at 230 pm edt sat aug 24 2019

leading sw disturbance across the cntrl plains will eject out ahead
of more sig nrn stream disturbance developing over srn canada monday
followed by cold frontal passage tuesday. ramping srly flow will
envelope the great lakes/wrn oh valley monday with showers likely as
warm front mixes through the area.

cold front follows tuesday with another round of showers likely.
instability with both features quite limited though and not likely
to support thunder.

dry and comfortable in cool/dry post frontal airmass thereafter.

&&

.aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z sunday evening)
issued at 730 pm edt sat aug 24 2019

low coverage cu will dissipate early this evening setting up
mainly clear skies for the remainder of the night. some high
cloudiness may move in sunday, with just some additional vfr flat
diurnal cu again sunday afternoon. easterly flow regime will
persist sunday, with perhaps just slight increase in wind speeds
in comparison to today as great lakes anticyclone shifts east.
some deterioration expected well beyond this forecast valid period
late sunday night into monday as low level moisture advection
increases due to more veered low level winds.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...none.
&&

$$

synopsis...marsili/mcd
short term...t
long term...t
aviation...marsili


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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
652 pm edt sat aug 24 2019


.aviation...

surface high pressure building northeast of the area will maintain
vfr conditions with diurnal cu fading this evening and re-developing
to some degree by midday sunday. northeast flow will begin to veer
to southeast with time on sunday as the center of high pressure
continues east into quebec and return flow around its western
periphery begins.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 317 pm edt sat aug 24 2019

discussion...

expansive high pressure (centered over northeast ontario at 1030 mb)
will continue to dominate the weather through the weekend over the
central great lakes region. 12z dtx showed a stout low level
subsidence inversion just under 5000 kft. with the moisture flux off
the warm waters of lake huron, a good deal of flat cu developed, but
is in the process of mixing out. tomorrow, lake erie will come more
into play as the low level winds back around to the southeast.
airmass modification should be able to support highs in the upper
70s/near 80 degrees, as regional gem indicates 850 mb temps reaching
around 12 c. upper level energy/shortwave over the central plains
will lift into the western great lakes sunday. this will help begin
to break down the upper level ridge in place, as strong pacific
wave/jet leads to digging trough over the northern plains, with a
healthy 500 mb height fall center (-70 m) reaching lake superior by
tuesday morning. increasing/strengthening southwest flow on monday
will transport a good deal of moisture into southern lower michigan,
as pw values approach 2 inches. airmass looks to become weakly
unstable, as showalter index lowers aob zero monday night, with weak
mid level lapse rate (under 6 c/km). moisture advection/isentropic
assent will support a good chance of showers, but bulk of the heavier
shower/thunderstorm activity may hold until tuesday with the actual
cold front/850 theta-e ridge, with potential diurnal/surface based
instability boost.

upper-level trough axis and embedded pv anomalies to travel across
michigan wednesday morning into the afternoon, but despite adequate
forcing, post-frontal cool and dry canadian air will significantly
limit any precipitation chances for the day. increase in mechanical
mixing tied to caa will tap into stronger winds aloft (35-40 knots
up to h850 per gfs) and will allow for gusty conditions at the
surface around 25-30 mph during daylight hours. ecmwf 12z run a
little less aggressive with llj with wind speeds at 25 - 30 knots at
h850, so still room to tweak potential wind gusts leading into the
midweek period.

surface high pressure to build in across the tennessee valley
wednesday into thursday with the northern periphery of high pressure
extending into the ohio valley and great lakes. mid-level flow to
stay zonal through the midweek period which will bring little change
to temperatures and will keep pops low. expect daytime highs to hold
in the 70s with lows in the 50s during the midweek with a mix of
clouds and sunshine (clouds will develop in afternoon with diurnal
response).

the next chance for rain and possibly thunderstorms will then enter
friday into saturday, however, will hold pops at only a slight
chance as too much divergence is noted between long range model
runs. the ecmwf and gfs have a slow moving low pressure system over
manitoba or western ontario that eventually is pushed eastward which
in turn would drag a cold front across se mi. however, models
diverge regarding evolution, track, and timing of low pressure. the
canadian is dry altogether as the low pressure system remains north
of ontario.

marine...

high pressure translating across the great lakes this weekend will
bring quiet conditions with relatively light winds and low waves.
north winds will prevail today before turning to the southeast
tomorrow as the high pressure departs to the east. winds expected to
stay primarily below 15 knots during this time. winds remain out of
the southeast on monday while increasing into the 15 to 20 knot
range with gusts of 25-30 knots possible. the winds will be
increasing in response to increasing pressure gradient ahead of an
approaching front and low pressure system. this system will bring
the next chance for showers and thunderstorms during the later half
of monday into tuesday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....dg
discussion...sf/am
marine.......aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.