Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
970
fxus61 kcle 271933
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
333 pm edt sun apr 27 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure overhead will continue east tonight and allow a
warm front across the area on monday. a low pressure system will
move through the great lakes monday night into tuesday and
extend a cold front across the area by tuesday night. high
pressure returns for wednesday.

&&

.near term /through monday night/...
high pressure across the region will allow for continued dry and
clear conditions. temperatures have overachieved a bit this
afternoon with most locations hitting the 60 degree mark. this
has allowed for the forecast for tonight to trend upward just a
touch with a mix of upper 30s to lower 40s for overnight lows.
there is a small window for some frost development in the grand
and mahoning river valleys where lows will be on the cusp of the
36/37 degree mark with the decoupling atmosphere. will mention
patchy/areas of frost in the forecast but coverage concerns and
confidence preclude a headline at this time.

for monday, a warm front will push through the area as high
pressure moves east. high temperatures will be warm in the 70s
and possibly hitting the 80 degree mark in spots. a system will
approach very late in the period and be a problem for tuesday
(see below). clouds will enter for monday night ahead of this
system and keep low temperatures elevated in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.short term /tuesday through wednesday night/...
warm front will be lifting across the northern ohio valley which
will allow for the region to be well into the warm sector on tuesday
ahead of a cold front. high temperatures on tuesday will rise into
the mid 80s coupled with dew points in the lower 60s. in response,
mlcape values rise to roughly 1500 j/kg by the afternoon and evening
with roughly 30-40 knots of deep layer shear. all hazards remain
possible including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few
tornadoes. dcape values approaching 1000 j/kg and steep mid-level
lapse rates highlight that damaging wind will be the most likely
hazard. spc has upgraded a portion of the region along and east of i-
71 in the swody3 to an enhanced risk (level 3/5) with the rest of
the local area in a slight risk (level 2/5). still some uncertainty
with exact timing of the frontal passage and the evolution of the
upstream convection on monday across the northern plains. we should
have better certainty with the convective evolution and finer
details once we are able to tap into the hi-res suite of guidance
with the next few forecast cycles.

the cold front will cross south and east before sagging along the
ohio river valley on wednesday as brief high pressure builds
overhead from the north. much cooler behind the cold front tuesday
and wednesday night with lows in the 50s for most. highs on
wednesday will rise into the mid 60s with upper 50s along the
lakeshore.

&&

.long term /thursday through sunday/...
next round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the area
thursday into friday as the aforementioned cold front lifts back
north as a warm front on thursday. surface low pressure will move
north across the central plains into the great lakes region on
thursday before dragging a cold front east across the region
thursday night into friday. the primary concern with this system
will be heavy rainfall as pwat values remain well above the 75th
percentile and will likely be closer to the 90th percentile.
ensembles and medium range deterministic models continue to show a
few hundred joules of instability on thursday afternoon ahead of the
cold front. there remains a non-zero chance for severe weather on
thursday but confidence in fairly low given the limited instability.

there is some uncertainty beyond friday night and the evolution of
the upper trough as it progresses across the northeast and an upper
ridge attempts to build in from the west. the warmest day of the
long term will occur on thursday as highs rise into the mid to upper
70s. temperatures gradually drop friday into the weekend behind the
cold front with highs in the 60s.

&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
vfr expected through the taf period with high pressure and clear
skies overhead. winds are variable across the area with
northerly flow backing around to the east and south as high
pressure moves east. winds will calm overnight. winds will
favor a southerly direction for monday with high pressure to the
east and a warm front advancing into the region.

outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
tuesday. additional rounds of non-vfr possible in showers on
wednesday and especially thursday.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions will continue through monday as high
pressure gradually moves east across the great lakes region. a warm
front approaches the lake monday night into tuesday morning which
will bring our next chance for small craft conditions. by late
monday night southerly winds increase to 15 to 20 knots before
turning northerly by tuesday evening behind a cold front. elevated
onshore flow tuesday night into early wednesday may briefly allow
for wave heights to build to 3 to 5 feet. another area of high
pressure will build over the lake from the north and allow for winds
to become light and variable by wednesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...sefcovic
near term...sefcovic
short term...13
long term...13
aviation...sefcovic
marine...13

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
389
fxus63 kiwx 271829
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
229 pm edt sun apr 27 2025

.key messages...

- thunderstorms are possible across the area late monday night
into early tuesday morning. isolated strong to severe storms
are possible west of i 69, with the main threat damaging
winds. confidence is low as storms will be weakening and they
arrive around 1-2 am et when conditions are less favorable.

- scattered strong to severe storms are possible tuesday
afternoon and evening. the best potential will be east of
in-15, with the main threats damaging winds and large hail. a
tornado or two are possible. confidence in severe weather
potential is medium.

- rain threats return wednesday and continue into late week, but
the thunder threat looks restricted to thursday with a low
severe storm threat as well.

- drier and cooler weather looks to return next weekend.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 225 pm edt sun apr 27 2025

surface high pressure shifts east and stalls along the western
atlantic stalling the pattern to an extent. meanwhile, a trough
shifts eastward and is pushed northward into the great lakes/
southern canada and a warm advection wing arrives monday. this
increases the highs on monday and increases dew points monday night
and tuesday morning into the 60s. this moisture stream pushes trough
between monday night and tuesday morning and there is some
instability to work with in models with some surface based
contribution. now there discrepancies in the timing of the shear
during this time. when the moisture stream arrives in the west 6z it
may be that that`s when the shear decreases and perhaps things
weaken and go outflow dominant. the main question will be what
happens east of in-15 or the i-69 corridor on tuesday where the cold
front is being modeled to end up. is there debris clouds left behind
that affects the resultant instability, especially if the cold front
might be coming through earlier in the afternoon so that there`s
less time in peak heating to recover. we have the shear for a
tornado potential monday night into early tuesday morning (maybe 2am
to 10am), but given the night time arrival, instability will be key.
there`s still a small chance that tuesday afternoon (maybe 1pm to
9pm) sees a tornado, but by this time, shear is lessened and there`s
questions about if instability can recover in time. severe hail also
has a chance with mid level lapse rates between 6.5 to 8 c/km at
times and depending on instability. damaging wind is also a threat.
training cells may result in flooding if the storms that train
become strong enough to produce heavy enough rain rates. pwats are 2
sds above normal so that`s in heavy rain`s favor.

then, as a cyclonic wave break occurs and an upper low parks
over the southwestern us, a trough comes into the western us and
brings that energy towards the area for wednesday
afternoon/night. this is as the surface boundary from the
monday/tuesday evening stalls just south of our area. chances
for scattered rain looks to continue wednesday evening through
thursday. when the upper low center passes by to our northwest,
perhaps there may be a timeframe where the warm sector passes
through that thunder could be possible, but severe weather
appears to be less likely. the main threat from all of this
would be potential flooding from the repeated rain fall chances.

the trough finally takes this moisture out of here by friday evening
as high pressure noses into the area bringing a return to drier
weather. we`ll have to watch for frost on saturday and sunday
mornings with upper 30s forecast at this point for the area as
morning lows.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1220 pm edt sun apr 27 2025

dry and stable conditions will allow vfr conditions to persist
on the backside of sfc high pressure. light winds otherwise this
afternoon into tonight, picking up a bit out of the south on
monday.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
852
fxus63 kdtx 271957
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
357 pm edt sun apr 27 2025

.key messages...

- an early week warming trend carries temperatures into the 70s
monday and into the 80s tuesday.

- showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms late monday night
and tuesday morning.

- there is another chance of thunderstorms late tuesday and tuesday
evening, a few of which could reach severe intensity, as a strong
cold front moves through the region.

- dry and cooler by wednesday.

&&

.discussion...

a broad area of high pressure is centered over the great lakes and
delivering an exceptional late april day to se mi. full sun is
helping afternoon temperatures easily reach the mid 60s inland from
the lakes while increasing onshore wind holds readings in the 40s
along the lake huron shoreline. lower mi is still east of a 500 mb
ridge building across the midwest which is combining with the surface
high to produce an impressively dry profile shown in the 12z dtx
upper air sounding. this has so far held back any mid and high clouds
straying eastward from the midwest zone of developing mid level warm
advection and moisture transport. a few patches of these clouds
eventually make it this far east late tonight and monday, however
this stage of theta-e advection is weak up against sub 700 mb dry air
from the mid atlantic into the eastern great lakes. no frost
concerns despite the clear sky as surface wind veers south and
increases just enough to hold temperatures in the lower to mid 40s by
sunrise monday morning. readings are then positioned for a run into
the 70s as the monday weather highlight as south wind increases under
clouds still slow to increase during the afternoon.

the mature plains low pressure system is projected to move from sd
into mn during monday while having a strong warm front extend into
the mid ms/tn valleys by monday evening. plentiful gulf moisture is
already feeding into the system from the southern plains today and
will supply elevated moisture transport into the great lakes on sw
850-700 mb flow averaging 50 kts late monday night through tuesday
morning. given the available gulf moisture, prefer a more aggressive
scenario for nocturnal/elevated convection across se mi compared to
consensus of deterministic model and href qpf ending 12z tuesday
morning. it seems very reasonable for upstream surface based storms
to fade monday evening leaving room for new development on the
strengthening low level jet across lower mi after midnight. bulk
parameters such as nam 1000-850 mb mucape near 2000 j/kg, gfs 700-500
lapse rate near 7.5 c/km, and href mean mucape of 1000-1500 j/kg all
suggest a greater nocturnal convective response compared to qpf
fields through tuesday morning.

the monday night/tuesday morning activity shortly precedes the
surface warm front which races northward across southern lower mi by
mid morning. a cloudy inbound warm sector is a good bet again based
on upstream observations across the plains and gulf coasts today. it
will otherwise be a summer air mass sporting mid 60s surface td and
eventually afternoon highs in the lower 80s. model soundings show
the boundary layer already well mixed in the morning for a wind
profile supporting gusts surging into the 30 kt range over land
areas. this will help with temperature recovery and formation of an
afternoon instability axis subject to another round of thunderstorm
development late in the day into tuesday evening. the consensus of
12z model solutions still favors later/farther east timing, although
questions linger on the timing of cap release and character of the
surface features. the nam and rap solutions also still demand
attention due to earlier/farther west timing, and the latest
afternoon adjustments to the spc day 3 outlook move the slight risk
back into se mi accordingly.

the main cold front sweeps through lower mi tuesday evening leading
to another downward spring season temperature swing. guidance has
readings dropping into the upper 30s most areas by wednesday morning
followed by a struggle back toward 60 wednesday afternoon. the cold
front is nearby to the south to present a cloud component as well by
late day before it returns with another round showers wednesday
night.

&&

.marine...

high pressure passing directly over the region maintains light and
variable wind through the afternoon. wind direction organizes out of
the south tonight and gradually increases in magnitude on monday as
low pressure develops upstream over the midwest. however, warm air
advection will result in strong stability over the cool lakes that
will limit wind strength to some degree. ensemble solutions favor
gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range late monday into tuesday within the
southerly wind regime, but a handful of solutions do produce gusts
in the 30 to 35 kt range over central lake huron late monday
evening. will hold off on a gale watch at this time as there is only
a 40% chance for a brief period of gales during this period and do
have concerns with the stable profiles. as the low tracks across the
northern lakes on tuesday, its cold front trails behind bringing
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region. wind
veering to northwest amidst the post-frontal cold advection will
bring the next window for a brief period of 30+ kt gusts over lake
huron tuesday evening. low confidence exists for gales in this
window but it will continue to be monitored. high pressure builds in
on wednesday with wind becoming light and variable.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 149 pm edt sun apr 27 2025

aviation...

high pressure centered over lower mi will result in light and
variable winds through the day with only a few cirrus. center of the
high drifts off to the east tonight bringing about a southeasterly
wind tonight. clear skies remain on monday bust winds will gust to
around 20 knots.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......tf
aviation.....drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.