Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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327
fxus61 kcle 030814
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
314 am est mon nov 3 2025

.synopsis...
a low pressure system will pass by to the north of the region
today dragging a cold front through the area. high pressure will
build into the ohio valley tonight through tuesday night.
another low pressure system will pass to the north the area on
wednesday with cold frontal passage. high pressure will build
back over the ohio valley on thursday.

&&

.near term /through tuesday/...
the general upper level weather pattern for much of this week
will be a fast paced storm track with strong westerly flow
aloft. there will be a several quick moving storm systems and
cold frontal passages that will track across our region this
week.

a shortwave upper level trough is currently over the upper
great lakes region this morning and will quick move eastward
today. there is a low pressure system near the southern portions
of hudson bay and a trailing cold front stretching down into
the great lakes this morning. this frontal will sweep through
the area today and mainly be a wind maker for our weather. this
southern portion of this front is limited on moisture and will
pass through mainly dry for most of the local area. there will
be a chance for a few rain showers across far neoh and nwpa
later today. any rainfall will be very light. the main weather
impact with this frontal passage today will be the uptick in
gusty winds. southwesterly to westerly winds will increase later
this morning 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph very
possible. high temperatures will range from the lower to upper
50s today.

high pressure over the central u.s. will build eastward into the
ohio valley tonight and dominate our weather through tuesday
night. fair weather and seasonable temperatures are expected on
tuesday with highs back into the middle and upper 50s.

&&

.short term /tuesday night through thursday night/...
the mid and upper level flow will continue to be zonal for the
midweek timeframe with strong westerlies aloft. another fast
moving shortwave trough will track across the upper midwest and
great lakes region on wednesday. at the surface, a low pressure
system will develop over the upper great lakes on wednesday and
track north of the area as it deepens. there will be a trailing
cold front that sweeps across the region late wednesday. this
storm system will also be limited on moisture but scattered rain
showers will be possible for mainly northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. rainfall amounts will be very light with this
midweek system. winds will increase again with this weather
system wednesday into wednesday night. during the day, southwest
winds will increase 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. winds
will become westerly to northwesterly behind the cold front
wednesday evening. ahead of front wednesday, high temperatures
will climb into the lower and middle 60s.

high pressure over the midwest will build into the great lakes
and ohio valley wednesday night and thursday. fair weather is
expected on thursday but temperatures will be a little cooler
with highs ranging from the lower to middle 50s.

&&

.long term /friday through sunday/...
the model guidance indicates that a big change in our weather
pattern will develop this upcoming weekend. the weather pattern
will become unsettled and turning colder. the forecast guidance
is showing some run to run consistency on the overall pattern
development but timing and other details are still somewhat
uncertain at this time. we will start this pattern shift on
friday with a developing upper level trough. a storm system and
developing surface low will track through the upper midwest and
upper great lakes region friday with a trialing cold front.
this front all sweep through with widespread rainfall for the
entire area. it may be possible for isolated thunder friday
with the frontal passage. high temps will be in the lower 60s
friday. forecast guidance indicates that a large and deeper
upper level trough will carve out across the great lakes region
and much of the eastern u.s. this weekend. another storms system
will develop around the base of this digging upper level trough
somewhere in the ohio valley and track into the northeast u.s.
later this weekend. another round of widespread rainfall is
looking increasingly likely this weekend followed colder
temperatures into early next week. we may see our first flakes
of the season and potentially even the first lake effect snow
too. stay tuned!

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
clouds will gradually increase early this morning, with cigs
lowering to 5 to 8 thousand feet by mid morning through the
afternoon in much of north central and northeast ohio and nw pa
as low pressure passing north of the great lakes drags the far
southern end of a cold front through our area. the bulk of the
area will stay dry with the frontal passage this afternoon, but
kept showers at keri in the 15-20z time period since deeper
moisture has the best chance to brush that area. vfr should
prevail through the afternoon as clouds remain at mid-level
heights, but cannot rule out a period of mvfr at keri.
confidence is just not high enough to put in the taf. clouds
will sharply decrease behind the front this evening as drier air
works in.

the biggest impact will be winds. winds will become very gusty
ahead of the cold front by late this morning through the
afternoon, when wsw winds of 10-20 knots will gust to 20-30
knots. the strongest winds will be in nw ohio and near the
lakeshore. winds will turn w to wnw this evening and gradually
decrease.

outlook...non-vfr in showers and gusty winds are possible
wednesday and wednesday night and again on friday.

&&

.marine...
a cold front will cross the lake this afternoon, with a strong
period of winds in association with this frontal passage
yielding unsettled/hazardous marine conditions. winds will
quickly increase out of the southwest this morning ahead of the
front, with these southwest winds peaking at 20-30kt late this
morning into this afternoon...up to 35kt east of conneaut.
winds will veer more west-northwest late this afternoon and
evening, and after perhaps a brief lull will again peak at
20-30kt this evening, with briefly 30-35kt east of avon point
(greatest potential for 35kt gales this evening will again be
east of conneaut). gusts to 40kt are possible during both
windows of stronger winds, especially east of conneaut. waves
will peak at 3 to 6 feet west of the islands and 6 to 11 feet
east of the islands late this morning through this evening. the
strong southwesterlies ahead of the front will cause water
levels to fall to near or a bit below the critical mark for safe
navigation of 2 inches below low water datum at toledo. winds
will diminish to <15kt west of the islands by early tuesday,
with a slower decrease through tuesday evening farther east as
winds back more west-southwest. water levels west should
rebound this evening as winds veer and slowly subside.

ultimately, upgraded the gale watch for the open waters in pa
and ny to a gale warning with this package, though it will be a
fairly marginal gale. expanded the warning to include the
nearshore pa waters, as the gradually veering winds will push
the largest waves towards the shoreline. the low water advisory
and remainder of the small craft advisories remain as posted,
with small craft advisories expiring west-east on tuesday.

it will be an unsettled week on the lake. after a brief lull
late tuesday into tuesday night another sharp cold front crosses
the lake on wednesday. the low pressure tracking to our north in
association with this cold front has trended stronger in recent
model guidance. brisk southwest winds ahead of the front will
whip northwest behind it, with 20-30kt peak sustained winds
currently in the forecast and gale probabilities increasing in
nbm guidance to 30-50% east of the islands. small craft
headlines will be needed wednesday into wednesday night, with
gales and low water issues also possible with stronger solutions.
the next low pressure and cold front move through the region
friday and friday night. this will bring additional unsettled
weather and potential for renewed headlines after a brief break.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est tuesday for lez142>144.
low water advisory from 7 am this morning to 10 pm est this
evening for lez142>144-162>164.
small craft advisory until 10 am est tuesday for lez145-146.
small craft advisory until 7 pm est tuesday for lez147-148.
small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for lez149.
gale warning from 10 am this morning to 1 am est tuesday for
lez149-169.

&&

$$

synopsis...77
near term...77
short term...77
long term...77
aviation...garuckas
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 030806
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
306 am est mon nov 3 2025

.key messages...

- sprinkles are possible along and north of the toll road this
morning but otherwise dry conditions prevail through thursday.

- gusty winds are expected this afternoon and low relative
humidities could allow any fires to spread out of control.
exercise caution if planning to burn leaves today.

- highs this week will remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
widespread light rain finally returns on friday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 306 am est mon nov 3 2025

potent upper jet (300mb winds near 175 kts) is currently digging
into the great lakes and driving a fairly deep pv anomaly (1.5 pvu
surface to 500mb) through the northern lakes on its cyclonically
sheared side. this places the right exit region squarely over our
cwa though and thus unfavorable for ascent/precip. strong sw flow to
the south of this jet streak/trough is generating some minor
moisture convergence capable of spitting out a stray sprinkle in our
far northern zones during the morning hours. have added a
sprinkle mention but overall no impact. main impact may end up
being some gusty winds today. deep mixing (to almost 800mb in
spots) and a tight gradient will generate gusts up to 30 kts
from late morning through early afternoon. also of some concern
is the extremely dry air advecting in behind the "cold" front
this afternoon. surface dewpoints drop into the 20s and could
lead to some fire wx concerns while winds remain gusty during
the afternoon. rh values of 30-40 percent are well shy of red
flag criteria but some spots in the sw could briefly drop below
30 percent and anyone planning to burn leaves later today should
exercise caution, especially given the lack of rainfall
recently. highs today make a run at 60 given full afternoon sun
and deep mixing.

a similar system arrives early wed. this system is a bit weaker from
a jet dynamics perspective but tracks a bit further south and
features much better postfrontal caa. suspect dry conditions will
prevail but here again can`t entirely rule out a sprinkle across the
north. ahead of this system, steady waa will push highs to around 60
on tue and well into the 60s on wed (67 south). modest caa brings us
back to reality for wed night/thu but still not bad for nov. the
next good chance of rain finally arrives on fri morning as moderate
amplitude trough swings directly overhead and taps into good
prefrontal theta-e return (by nov standards). widespread rain
appears likely though perhaps not for a long duration given speed
and orientation of this system. still looks like a solid quarter
inch with up to a half inch possible. thunder not out of the
question but will hold off on including for now given poor diurnal
timing and lackluster mucape values. minor caa expected for sat but
it looks increasingly likely that a second system develops early sun
that eventually draws some much colder air into the region late sun
into mon of next week. deterministic models in surprising agreement
this far out though ensembles do still show some spread. if this
holds, 850mb temps slated to drop to -10c which will assuredly bring
some lake effect snow to the region.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 306 am est mon nov 3 2025

southwest flow was over northern indiana, well south of a deep low
over the upper great lakes. the deep low will move rapidly east and
cause southwest winds to shift to the west and northwest later
today. the lower layers remained quite dry and moisture was
generally limited, but a brief shower is possible early in the taf
period; otherwise, some mid clouds will prevail with dry weather.
winds should be gusty during the daytime and then diminish toward
sunset as the atmosphere decouples.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...agd
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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926
fxus63 kdtx 030842
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
342 am est mon nov 3 2025

.key messages...

- breezy conditions today as a cold front crosses the region in the
late morning. peak gusts are expected to fall in the 30 to 40 mph
range.

- chances for rain favored towards northern half of the region
monday morning.

- quiet weather tuesday with warming temperatures.

&&

.discussion...

medium range guidance supports high index flow across central north
america and the great lakes throughout the upcoming next 7 days.
high periodicity of shortwaves is anticipated with shorter duration
weather events.

exit region to very strong, anticyclonically curved upper level jet
stream is now carving into the western to central great lakes this
morning. observational datasets, including satellite imagery and
composite reflectivity mosaic, support a far-ranging band of frontal
rain from james bay region arcing down to portions of minnesota and
iowa. most recent model data suggests 700mb frontogenesis is a
little stronger than earlier projections while low level-850mb
frontogenesis is non existent. no surprises with guidance than
suggests a chance of rain here primarily between 09-15z. expecting
the midlevel fgen to wane during that time window based on model
data, with geopotential height fall forcing to flash rapidly to the
south and east away from the forecast area. current chance pops are
good considering many observing sites are reporting dry conditions
over southern wisconsin. any qpf south of i 69 is expected to be
light/negligible.

surface winds have been slow to increase overnight with windgusts of
20 to 30 mph only being reported across portions of northern lower
michigan with higher elevation and those areas immediately downwind
of lake michigan. entrance region to low level jet will spread
across the area in the predawn hours coincident to the increase in
radar returns. it remains possible that evaporation may help
downward momentum fluxing and bring some stronger gusts to the
surface this morning. daytime heating and cold advection in the wake
of the cold front will then allow for increasing boundary layer
heights with steepened lapse rates. hires based mixing based
technique probabilities continue to suggest 30 to 35 mph this
afternoon with the best potential for strongest winds downwind of
saginaw bay over the northern thumb.

very broad upper level and surface based ridging forecasted to
expand across lower michigan late monday through early wednesday.
bottom line is dry weather with temperatures in the upper 50s
tuesday and potentially lower 60s across metro detroit southward
wednesday.

models are in good agreement for a clipper system to track through
the northern great lakes wednesday. inbound trajectory from the
northwest into the area suggests a very short residence time and
short duration of upward vertical motion. best forcing at this time
appears to be midlevel warm advection set for 03-12z wednesday
morning. the euro now arrived with more aggressive solution
regarding the southward track of the main parent absolute vorticity
anomaly. will be saying this a lot this winter, but will be taking a
very conservative wait and see approach with euro forecasts on
absolute vorticity. breezy westerlies will be possible late
wednesday.

continuing low amplitude high index flow suggests progressive
ridging on thursday before two more systems possibly friday and
sunday. at this point, precipitation chances friday once again appear
fleeting with forward sloping cold frontal dynamics.

&&

.marine...

a cold front remains on track to move across the great lakes this
morning and afternoon, veering wind direction from west-southwest to
west-northwest. sustained wind speeds across lake huron ranging from
25 to 30 knots with gusts around 35 knots will continue in the wake
of the front given the better mixing depths with the subtle boost in
cold air advection. there will be a window this afternoon and
evening across north and north-central lake huron to see wind gust
potential increase up to 40 knots at times, given the more favorable
wnw fetch. a gale warning remains in effect across the saginaw bay
and lake huron. for locations south, small craft advisories also
remain in place as gust potential holds shy of gales. last,
widespread rain showers are expected along the cold front through
the morning and early afternoon hours.

a ridge of high pressure will build in tomorrow, bringing respite
from unsettled conditions. a second low pressure system is then
expected to move across northern lower michigan by wednesday , which
will again elevate winds and gusts through the midweek period. gusts
to 30 knots will be possible wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1201 am est mon nov 3 2025

aviation...

a 5 to 10 knot southwest wind and vfr skies will start this taf
period with high clouds moving in ahead of an approaching cold
front. before that cold front arrives, a strong low level jet will
bring llws concerns starting around 08z this morning. the main area
of showers is currently moving across northern lake michigan into
northern lower michigan and is expected to move into mbs toward
09-10z and clearing southeast michigan to the east by about 14-15z.
highest confidence for showers will be across fnt and mbs with lesser
confidence towards the southern metro terminals, so will go with
tempo groups for ptk north and maintain prob30 groups for rain
showers to the south. mvfr ceilings will quickly fill in around 12-
13z for a relatively short period of time with the frontal passage
before clouds decrease in post frontal conditions during the early
afternoon. gusty west winds will then develop monday afternoon with
cold advection and a tight pressure gradient supporting gusts of 30
knot, which begin to ease during the evening into tonight.

for dtw/d21 convection...no thunderstorms today through monday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet by 10-12z this morning. low for this
afternoon and evening.

* low to moderate for crosswind thresholds this afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz442-443.

gale warning until 10 pm est this evening for lhz361>363-421-441-
462>464.

gale warning until 10 am est this morning for lhz422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez444.

low water advisory from 7 am this morning to 10 pm est this evening
for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......cb
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.