Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
592
fxus61 kcle 182354
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
654 pm est thu dec 18 2025

.synopsis...
a strong cold front will transit the the lower great lakes
tonight bringing gusty winds and sharp temperature drops. high
pressure will briefly build in behind before another cold front
comes through saturday night. wide swings in high temperatures
are expected, before high pressure returns monday.

&&

.near term /through friday night/...
the overall forecast remains on track this period with only
minor changes to reflect a deeper surface/upper low and
stronger associated cold front moving across the region today
and tomorrow. the low track has nudged farther north through
southern ontario and quebec, and the region is expected to
remain largely north of the warm front as the system passes.
despite that, temperatures across the region have soared into
the 50s this afternoon. highs friday will occur early in the
morning, as a rapid post-frontal drop in temperatures into the
low-20s will occur through late morning. this will increase the
risk of a flash freeze during the friday morning commute, as
surfaces will remain wet from a combination of snow melt the
past couple days and rainfall overnight tonight.

wind
forecast winds have increased slightly through this
evening, ahead of the approaching cold front, with a wind
advisory in effect across western counties, in addition to
continuing the advisory for erie co, pa. gusts near 50 mph are
expected within the advisory areas, especially with the passage
of a strong line of showers associated with the front. behind
the cold front, gusts up to 45 mph are likely along the
lakeshore east of cuyahoga co. this will also result in apparent
temperatures/wind chills in the teens or single digits.

precip
timing of precipitation is unchanged, with showers, heavy at
times, moving rapidly west to east across the area this
evening/overnight. a brief period of changeover to snow is
expected friday morning, before a lake effect snow band develops
along the lakeshore from lake co eastward. this band will push
inland through the day friday, bringing one to three inches of
snowfall to northeast oh, and three to six inches to northwest
pa.

&&

.short term /saturday through sunday night/...
high pressure will quickly depart into the mid atlantic region
saturday ahead of a northern stream mid/upper shortwave trough
(clipper) moving into the upper great lakes. this trough and
associated surface low will progress across the eastern great
lakes saturday night and sunday, dragging a strong cold front
through the region. the best dynamics and associated forcing
will be displaced north of the region, so do not expect much
precip coverage with the front saturday night other than some
light rain/snow showers in far ne ohio and nw pa. lake-effect
snow showers will linger in nw pa sunday but quickly diminish
sunday night as a large dome of surface high pressure builds
into the southern great lakes and ohio valley.

high temperatures saturday will quickly rebound back into the
upper 30s/low 40s ahead of the front, falling back into the mid
20s to around 30 sunday. very cold sunday night as the high
builds overhead, with lows in the mid/upper teens.

&&

.long term /monday through thursday/...
unfortunately for those dreaming of a white christmas, it is
shaping up to be a mild christmas week as the aforementioned
surface high becomes oriented over the western atlantic and
southeast conus while the mid/upper flow becomes quasi-zonal
across the conus overtop of an unseasonably strong and broad
subtropical ridge building over the southern plains. this will
support a strong warming trend through the week, as highs in the
low/mid 30s monday warm into the low/mid 40s tuesday and
wednesday, and possibly low 50s on christmas day. weak
disturbances moving through the flow will bring occasional light
precip chances, mainly tuesday and again thursday (christmas
day), but rain is the favored p-type instead of snow given these
mild temperatures.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
mixed-bag of mvfr and vfr across the taf sites this evening with
deterioration to widespread mvfr and ifr later this evening and
overnight. for late this evening, ifr conditions will most
likely be associated with a cold front bringing a narrow band of
heavy rain west to east through the area, followed by low-end
mvfr or ifr ceilings behind the front overnight. much colder air
will arrive behind the front late tonight into friday morning,
with rain transitioning to snow. ifr vsbys are expected in snow
showers that impact taf sites late friday morning into the
afternoon, though confidence in exact placement of the snow
showers is low to medium. the lowest vsbys down to 1/2sm are
expected at eri mid to late friday afternoon in lake effect
snow.

winds are favoring a south to southeast direction ahead of the
cold front this evening, 15 to 20 knots with occasional gusts of
30 to 35 knots. winds will abruptly shift towards the west
behind the front late this evening and overnight and remain
elevated through friday. brief wind gusts up to 40 knots cannot
be ruled out, especially at cle/eri friday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible in low ceilings behind a cold front
on sunday. non-vfr possible in rain and/or snow showers on
tuesday.

&&

.marine...
southerly winds of 20-25 knots will veer to west southwesterly
behind a cold front overnight and increase to gale force by
friday morning. small craft advisories are in effect ahead of
the cold front with a gale warning going into effect east of
vermilion following the cold front. gale warnings remain in
effect through friday evening and will be followed by another
round of small craft advisories on the east half of the lake as
waves are slower to subside. a low water advisory is also in
effect for the western basin of lake erie for friday. water
levels are forecast to fall to almost a foot below the critical
mark for safe navigation during the day on friday. the lowest
water levels are expected towards midday.

another system will approach the upper great lakes from the west on
saturday with south to southwesterly winds ramping up again. another
round of small craft advisories are likely saturday afternoon and
through sunday as another strong cold front crosses lake erie. high
pressure builds east across the region on monday followed by another
system passing north of the lakes again on tuesday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...wind advisory until 10 pm est this evening for ohz003-006>009-
017>019-027>029-036-037.
pa...wind advisory until 1 am est friday for paz001-002.
winter weather advisory from 10 am friday to 1 am est saturday
for paz001-002.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est friday for lez142-143.
low water advisory from 4 am to 4 pm est friday for lez142>144-
162>164.
small craft advisory until 1 am est friday for lez144>147.
gale warning from 1 am to 10 pm est friday for lez144>147-
164>167.
small craft advisory until 7 am est friday for lez148-149.
gale warning from 7 am friday to midnight est friday night for
lez148-149-168-169.

&&

$$

synopsis...garuckas
near term...garuckas
short term...garuckas
long term...garuckas
aviation...kahn
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
735
fxus63 kiwx 182342
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
642 pm est thu dec 18 2025

.key messages...
- windy at times through friday. winds: 20 to 30 mph with gusts to
45. strongest winds with the front and just behind the front.

- numerous showers into early tonight. rainfall amounts < 1". no
flooding.

- flash freeze 8pm (west of i-69) to 2am (east of i-69). some
secondary roads may become icy in spots.

- mild and mainly dry tuesday through christmas. highs in the
40s to lower 50s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1208 pm est thu dec 18 2025

mild air has spread north across the entire forecast area with
temperatures in the 40s and 50s. bands of showers will continue to
develop this afternoon over and to the west of the forecast area.
these showers were associated with a deep 986mb low over the
arrowhead region of mn (far northeast mn). forecast challenges
include timing of the cold front, type if any wind headlines,
any wintry mix of precipitation and the potential for a flash
freeze. the cold air upstream has been lagging somewhat behind
the surface front which should help limit any chances for
freezing precipitation.

all indications point toward an event below wind advisory criteria.
the strongest wind gusts should be from the west at 20 to 30 mph
with gusts to 45 mph, especially with the passage of the front. do
not plan to issue a wind advisory, but rather handle this event with
an special weather statement as the front nears. ongoing upstream
observations and gfs lamp guidance support the above. lows tonight
are expected to fall into the teens with highs friday only around
25. the latest timing for the cold front is around midnight est
at south bend and about 2am est over northwest ohio.

upstream teleconnections strongly favor a brief intrusion of
cold air followed by mild air rapidly returning to the area.
highs friday should be near 25 - but highs saturday should be
15 to 20 degrees warmer (lower 40s). after a brief arctic
intrusion sunday, the mild pattern will return with a vengeance.
the latest gfs shows basically a highly blocked pattern in the
high latitudes with upper ridges over the aleutian islands,
central and east conus, and over iceland. the gfs 500 mb height
anomaly is very indicative of this mild pattern with blocks
exceeding 400 meters (per gfs over alaska and iceland).

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 642 pm est thu dec 18 2025

couple of cold frontal boundaries will move through over the
next several hours. currently, the first boundary is moving
through the area and is associated with a band of convective
showers and gusty southerly winds. the main boundary that will
usher in much colder air will begin to push through after 23z
thu. expectation is for mvfr cigs to continue through the
remainder of this taf period for both sites, however there will
be periods of some vsby reductions into ifr cats due to snow
showers and mist for both sites. for kfwa between 01z and 04z
fri with moderate to light rainfall and mist and for ksbn between
08z and 14z fri due to light snowshowers and mist. gusty winds
will also continue through the taf period with southerly winds
veering more westerly after about 01z to 03z with the increased
caa. gusts up to 35 kts will be possible with some low level
wind shear early on especially for kfwa with this convective
shower boundary pushing through.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...gale warning until 1 pm est friday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
810
fxus63 kdtx 182253
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
553 pm est thu dec 18 2025

.key messages...

- widespread rainfall this evening with around a half inch of
rainfall accumulation.

- gusty winds of 30-40 mph tonight through friday afternoon.

- there is the potential for any moisture on roadways to flash
freeze tonight as arctic air moves back into the region.

- scattered-numerous light snow showers late tonight-friday morning,
with isolated embedded snow squalls possible into the afternoon.
snowfall accumulations of a dusting to perhaps an inch in the
heaviest activity. expect the friday morning commute to be impacted
and allow for extra time.

&&

.aviation...

a narrow line of enhanced radar returns within the broader light
rain across indiana delineates the sfc cold front. strong south flow
in advance of the associated upper wave will drive this narrow
region of enhanced showers across the metro detroit region between
02z and 04z. brief wind gusts over 30 knots have been observed
within these higher intensity showers. otherwise, light rain with
occasional mvfr and ifr based ceilings looks to prevail through the
evening. there will be a wind shift to the west-southwest in the
wake of the evening cold frontal passage.

a secondary cold front will then progress across se mi in the 05z to
07z time frame, leading to strong cold air advection in its wake.
this will be enough to activate the lake effect and will support
occasional snow showers through the overnight and into friday
morning. the cold air advection will be associated with a strong sfc
low traversing the northern great lakes tonight. westerly gradient
winds and a deepening mixed layer within continued cold air
advection on friday will result in wind gusts in the 30 to 35 knot
range during the afternoon.

for dtw...extrapolation from regional radar and latest hi res
guidance brings the cold front across metro between 03z and 04z. the
line of convection is shallow, thus not producing lightning. the
strong wind fields along the line of convection will likely support
some increased turbulence.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and friday morning.
moderate friday afternoon.

* high in precipitation type being all rain this evening. high
confidence in snow as a precipitation type after 06z tonight.

* medium in crosswinds thresholds being exceeded noon to 4 pm on
friday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 333 pm est thu dec 18 2025

discussion...

impressive system tracking across the central conus today that will
impact the great lakes this evening through friday. occluded surface
low at 987mb over the western up will curl up to the ne into northern
quebec by friday morning as the deep and elongated mid/upper level
trough extending down into the southern states tilts from neutral to
negative tilt and slings the low northeastward. very dynamic system
with 160 knot upper level jet feeding into it and a 70 knot low
level jet surging due north ahead of the cold front. luckily stable
conditions ahead of the occluded front are preventing the low level
jet flow from mixing down, but wind gusts this afternoon/evening
will still reside mainly in the 20-30 knot range for the most part.
best chance of stronger winds will accompany a thunderless line of
convection along the cold front this evening mainly between 00-04z
as deeper mixing along the front may tap into the strong winds aloft
before the llj depart east. due to likely short duration and
frontal/convective nature of the gusts, will assess the obs as the
front marches east and handle the higher gusts with an sps as
needed.

precip has become more widespread since 19z after holding mainly
across saginaw through the early part of the day. this more
driven batch of showers will push through early this
evening producing around 0.1-0.2 of qpf. the convectively driven
showers alone the front tonight should be responsible for an
additional 0.2-0.3 of qpf. combined with recent snow melt, which
will continue until the frontal passage, will lead to some rises in
local rivers and ponding on roads but shouldn`t result in flooding
concerns.

big changes tonight as aggressive cold advection kicks in the wake
of the cold front. 850mb thermal trough diving into the plains is
currently around -20c while we sit at 6c over se mi. with some
airmass modification to occur, we`ll still see 850mb temps drop to
around 0c by 06z and -13c by 12z friday morning. the starkly colder
airmass will excite a period of lake effect snow showers tonight
into friday. initially, the rapid rise in mixed layer depth and
residual moisture combined with lake enhancement will lead to a
burst of light snow showers overnight but mixed levels only around
5kft will limit higher snowfall totals from reaching very far across
lower mi. additional it looks like a multi-band set up with the
strong westerly winds as opposed to one strong convergent band
setting up. one thing to watch will be across mid mi as the upper
low center within the trailing trough axis drops into northern-mid
mi which could bring a stronger band of convergence into the saginaw
valley and northern thumb with briefly higher rates. dry air
advection friday will lead to decreasing chances for snow showers
through the late morning and afternoon, likely with mainly flurries
by noon as rh fields show the moisture field disconnecting from lake
mi early in the day. high temps will hold in the upper 20s friday
with wind chills holding around 10f as strong westerly winds
continue through the day. model soundings show a deep layer of winds
around 30-35 knots through the mixed layer so confidence is pretty
high in gusts of 30-40 mph through much of the day. very little
support for winds over 45 mph so not considering any wind advisories
at this time.

high pressure builds back across the ohio valley and up into mi
through the day friday and lingering through saturday. this will be
short lived though as the progressive pattern holds and the next low
tracking through ontario brings the next cold front through lower mi
saturday evening or overnight which will result in light snow or
rain/snow mix. next stronger low is forecast to arrive monday night
into tuesday and currently is tracking north of the area leading to
warmer air and ptypes across southern mi. temperatures will be
bouncing around through the week as we remain near the baroclinic
zone with systems passing near and around the region.

marine...

gale warnings are in effect for all of lake huron through friday as
strong low pressure and a cold front impact the great lakes. the
warm air in place has kept the nearshore waters stable (gusts aob 30
knots), while ship observations have reported winds of 30-35 knots
across the open waters. the front is just now entering lake michigan
and is moving east at about 30 knots, bringing it through the local
waters between 01-05z (8p-12a est). the front is marked by a narrow
band of rain and an abrupt wind shift from s to w/nw, with the
sharpest wind shift occurring over lake erie and a more muted shift
for lake huron. a rapid drop in temperatures is also expected,
transitioning rain to snow as lake michigan snow showers develop.
the surge of cold air will be more favorable for mixing, with the
gale warning expanding to the lake huron nearshore zones at midnight
although an earlier upgrade remains possible depending on the
frontal timing. snow squalls and w/nw flow gusting to gales will
characterize the post-frontal airmass on friday before high pressure
eases the gradient friday night and headlines drop off. quiet marine
weather lasts through daytime saturday, but the next low ramps winds
back up toward gales saturday night-sunday. given the complex
headlines attm, will hold off on any additional headlines for the
sat night system.

hydrology...

yesterday`s afternoon sunshine and temperatures in the low to mid
40s lead to decent snow melt. even more aggressive snow melt will
occur this afternoon and evening with rain and temps pushing 50
degrees. even so, with expected basin average rainfall totals at or
slightly better than half an inch, no flooding is anticipated. there
will however, be ponding of water on low lying areas and roads.
rises on area rivers will occur, but well below bankfull.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 7 pm est friday for lhz361>363-462>464.

small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for lhz421-422-
441>443.

gale warning from midnight tonight to 7 pm est friday for lhz421-
422-441>443.

low water advisory until 7 pm est friday for lhz422.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 7 pm est friday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 7 pm est friday for lez444.

low water advisory from 4 am to 4 pm est friday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...drk
marine.......mv
hydrology....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.