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Lucas and Wood Counties

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000
fxus61 kcle 091946
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
346 pm edt sun may 9 2021

.synopsis...
latest surface analysis showed a 1003mb low over southwest ohio.
this low is expected to push east through the ohio valley
through this evening and reach the mid- atlantic states later
tonight. surface ridge of high pressure will quickly build into
the region on monday. another cold front/trough will sweep
across the area on tuesday. high pressure will build into the
great lakes region for wednesday through saturday.

&&

.near term /through monday/...
mosaic regional radars continue to show a large area of rain
spreading east over ohio and western pennsylvania. cloud cover
and damp conditions will persist through this afternoon. the
close proximity approaching from the southwest has allowed winds
at the surface to become southeast. warm air advection has
increased across southern and central ohio this afternoon.
therefore, rain/snow mix has been confined over extreme
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. the surface low will
quickly shift east this evening and precipitation will end from
west to east before midnight.

as the surface low pushes east this evening, drier air will
usher into the region and clouds will erode. surface winds are
expected to collapse. these features will allow temperatures
to drop into the 30s. surface dewpoint readings are expected to
remain in the mid 30s. as a result, areas of frost are likely to
develop over northwest ohio and patchy front over the rest of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania away from from the
lake. a weak trough will swing through late monday but limited
moisture will likely yield a chance of precipitation into
tuesday.

&&

.short term /monday night through wednesday night/...
the area will continue to be under the influence of a closed upper
level low slowly pivoting east across southern ontario and quebec on
tuesday. an associated surface trough will be dragged east across
the area tuesday afternoon and evening, with the best chance for any
precipitation across extreme ne oh and nw pa. precipitation will be
in the form of rain showers and diurnally-driven, though steep low-
level lapse rates and a coupled hundred j/kg of cape in the 0c to
-20c layer could contribute to a few lightning strikes across the
area. kept any thunder chances at slight at this time. highs on
tuesday will remain below average, in 50s.

on tuesday night, surface high pressure will be quickly ushered in
from the west and widespread inland frost could once again become an
issue. winds will become calm under clear skies, causing
temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s.

high pressure will continue its influence across the area on
wednesday with clear skies anticipated. with plentiful sun and
relatively light winds, opted to go with the 75 percentile nbm which
yielded high temperatures a couple degrees higher into the mid 60s.
inland frost could once again become an issue wednesday night with
clear skies and nearly calm winds, allowing for efficient nocturnal
radiative cooling as temperatures reach the low to mid 30s.

&&

.long term /thursday through sunday/...
weak troughing will persist across the great lakes thursday into
saturday, though surface high pressure should preclude any
precipitation chances through at least saturday morning. by saturday
into sunday, upper ridging begins to amplify across the central
conus, allowing for more persistent northwesterly flow aloft across
the region. this should allow for some rain shower chances saturday
and sunday, though not looking like a washout by any means.
temperatures will be on the increase through the long term period
with mid to upper 60s and perhaps lower 70s anticipated on thursday
and friday. by saturday and sunday, temperatures could return to the
low to mid 70s.&&

.aviation /18z sunday through friday/...
lifr ceilings will persist through 00z this evening and slowly
improving from west to east between 02z and 06z monday. with
the approaching low, east to southeast winds will occur this
afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots. as the surface low pushes
east this evening, winds will settle on a northwest direction at
10 knots or less.

outlook...non-vfr conditions may persist in low ceilings on
monday morning. non-vfr possible again in showers on tuesday.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisory remains in effect across the entire lake
this afternoon, though the area west of the islands will drop of
sometime this evening as northeast winds decrease. elsewhere,
north to northeast flow, 20 to 30 knots, will persist through
the first part of the overnight period, but then decrease closer
to 10 to 15 knots by later overnight. rather weak northerly
flow across the lake will persist into tuesday morning, before a
surface trough sweeps southeast by tuesday afternoon. behind
the trough, onshore north to northwesterly winds will increase
again, 15 to 25 knots, with a small craft advisory possible
across the eastern basin through tuesday evening. surface high
pressure and light winds are anticipated across the lake
wednesday into thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt monday for ohz003-006>011-
013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt monday for paz002-003.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lez148-149.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez142-
143.
small craft advisory until 4 am edt monday for lez144>147.

&&

$$
synopsis...fz
near term...fz
short term...kahn
long term...kahn
aviation...fz
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

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000
fxus63 kiwx 091917
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
317 pm edt sun may 9 2021

.synopsis...
issued at 317 pm edt sun may 9 2021

drier air will filter in tonight through much of the upcoming week
with morning frost likely monday through wednesday. a gradual
warming trend is expected mid week through next weekend.

&&

.short term...(this evening through tuesday night)
issued at 317 pm edt sun may 9 2021

rain has finally tapered off across nw in/sw mi, with areas to the
east seeing precip end from w-e by 21-22z. subsidence/drying in wake
of this system will allow for diminishing sky cover/winds tonight.
this will allow for areas of frost to form in most locations as
temps crash into the low to mid 30s. some patchy fog/stratus will
also be possible toward daybreak.

a northern high plains upper level impulse will get absorbed east
under a persistent ontario upper low, taking a track through the
southern great lakes tomorrow. sheared nature to the wave and
lacking moisture should preclude any shower development along an
associated secondary front. this reinforcing shot of cooler air will
keep highs in the 50s.

the primary ontario vort lobe will finally release se through
michigan and the eastern great lakes on tuesday. held onto slight
chance pops for isolated showers in our far northeast zones where
some weak lift/moisture may clip. dry otherwise with highs on
tuesday in the 50s (again).

frost/freeze potential then becomes a concern again monday night and
tuesday night with cool airmass in place on the eastern fringe of an
upper midwest centered low level anticyclone. will continue with a
frost mention in the grids each morning with lows in the low-mid
30s.

&&

.long term...(wednesday through sunday)
issued at 317 pm edt sun may 9 2021

a trend toward warmer temperatures, close to normal for mid may,
will be the weather story late this week into next weekend as return
flow potentially materializes in a more progressive flow regime.
this will also bring non-zero chances for rain by saturday and
sunday as a frontal boundary sets up somewhere across the midwest
and weak upper waves track along it.

&&

.aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z monday afternoon)
issued at 115 pm edt sun may 9 2021

kiwx radar indicating back edge of extensive precip shield nearing
ksbn...as they have improved to mvfr over the past couple hours.
precip expected to end around or shortly after issuance time at
ksbn while lingering another few hours over kfwa before
translating eastward out of the area as low pressure system moves
from southern indiana to southwest ohio. gradually improving
conditions will follow as drier air advects into the area in the
wake of this system. expect a transition to vfr at ksbn around 21z
while kfwa lingers in mvfr into this evening before vfr after
01z. gusty ne winds will continue this afternoon then backing
slightly to more northerly flow and diminishing to less than 10kts
tonight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory from 2 am edt /1 am cdt/ to 8 am edt /7 am cdt/
monday for inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

mi...frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt monday for miz077>081.

oh...frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt monday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.

lm...small craft advisory until 5 am edt monday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

synopsis...steinwedel
short term...steinwedel
long term...steinwedel
aviation...jal


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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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000
fxus63 kdtx 091921
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
321 pm edt sun may 9 2021

.discussion...

ongoing widespread light rainfall noted across southern sections
late this afternoon will gradually diminish in coverage through
early evening, responding to a steady decline in mid level support
as the governing shortwave and attendant upper jet max exit the
region. some pockets of light showers north of this main axis tied
to a brief increase in deformation, likely remaining short-lived in
duration and intensity before fading prior to 00z. ensuing dry air
advection within low level north-northeast flow then offers
increasing clearing potential with time overnight. modest
radiational cooling opportunity given the open sky, but with some
limitation with the gradient still hovering near 5 kts. this will
translate into another night with lows mainly within the 33 to 37
degree range most locales, affording areas of frost formation during
the early morning hours.

mid level circulation currently fixated northeast of lake superior
gradually shears southeast and across the eastern great lakes during
the early week period. this ensures a below average thermal profile
will continue to characterize conditions. initial height falls
commence throughout monday, offering a modest window for cold air
advection in northwest flow. standard increase in coverage of
stratocumulus as diurnal lapse rates steepen, with perhaps just
enough convective depth and moisture quality to allow for late day
isolated shower production. deeper layer cold air advection then
accompanies the arrival of the main upper trough axis monday night
and tuesday. inherent increase in both low and mid level lapse rates
with daytime heating may again afford an isolated to scattered
coverage of late day instability showers tuesday. morning lows will
continue to flirt in the vicinity of/or just above freezing - so
frost formation in play each morning assuming nocturnal skies remain
clear.

dry and stable conditions within deep layer subsidence for the
wednesday period, as upper heights gradually climb atop building sfc
high pressure. general airmass modification augmented by good
prospects of full insolation, bringing highs back in the 60s. a
rather nondescript, seasonable environment emerges for the remainder
of the work week. surface ridging will tend to anchor the low level
environment during this time, limiting both wind magnitude and
moisture quality - dry conditions favored with daytime temperatures
mid-upper 60s.

&&

.marine...

low pressure will continue tracking east across the ohio valley the
remainder of today and into the mid-atlantic region monday bringing
an end to rain across lake st. clair and western lake erie by this
evening. hazardous small craft conditions will continue through the
evening hours across western lake erie as gusty northeast flow
around 25 knots allows for choppy waves occasionally pushing 3-5
feet. across the remaining local waters, winds will begin backing
northwest in response to high pressure slowly becoming reestablished
across the great lakes, which will become the dominant weather
player through midweek. a lingering pressure gradient across the
region will allow for winds to be moderate in strength, with
strongest gusts across the northern and central lake huron basin
reaching 25 knots at times. the offshore component should keep wave
heights in the lake huron nearshore waters at bay through midweek,
although choppy at times especially in portions of outer saginaw bay
and around the tip of the thumb. winds will trend lighter and more
variable towards thursday as the core of the high pressure settles
overhead.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 100 pm edt sun may 9 2021

aviation...

light showers and mvfr conditions approaching the m-59 corridor, and
that is pretty much as far north as the activity should reach, as
low level northeast winds (10+ knots) become fully established with
low pressure sliding into eastern ohio valley. it appears enough
drying will occur early this evening behind the low to support
mostly clear skies tonight with winds becoming very light northwest.
colder air will continue to filter into southeast michigan through
tomorrow, and a vfr diurnal strato-cu field generated due to the
steep low level lapse rates. in fact, could even be isolated showers
around in the afternoon, mainly over the thumb region.

for dtw...showers look to be ending 20-22z based on current
trends/projections, and partial clearing should quickly take place
this evening. still potentially enough moisture lingering around 5000
feet to support some passing few-sct vfr clouds.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon, then low.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt monday for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...mr
marine.......irl
aviation.....99

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.