Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
062
fxus61 kcle 191830
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
230 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track.

&&

.key messages...
1) isolated showers this afternoon with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible saturday afternoon. widespread rainfall
expected sunday night through monday which may result in rises
on area rivers.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
lingering upper level troughing will continue to influence the
region despite surface high pressure slowly building overhead
from the west. some isolated showers this afternoon across
portions of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania will
diminish later this evening. additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible during the day on saturday as a
shortwave aloft moves overhead. coverage will remain scattered
with the highest pops confined to southeastern zones.

the majority of saturday night into the daytime hours on sunday
will be dry as the shortwave exits the region. by sunday night
surface low pressure is forecast to approach from the west
before tracking across the ohio valley during the day on monday.
area pwats averaging ~1.75 inches are forecast which is well
above the 90th percentile for mid/late june. current rainfall
amounts sunday night through monday range between 1-1.5 inches
with slightly higher amounts of 1.5-1.75 inches across the
western third of the forecast area. locally heavy rainfall will
be possible in any strong thunderstorm and/or storms that train
over the same area. rises on area rivers are expected with the
possibility of a few rivers rising into minor flood stage. will
continue to monitor the track of the surface low and rainfall
amounts as we near closer to monday. wpc expanded the slight
risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall to include the
majority of the forecast area during this timeframe.

&&

.aviation /18z friday through wednesday/...
overall vfr conditions will continue with scatttered to broken
high and mid level cloudiness in our skies. winds will be from
the west-northwest 8 to 15 knots this afternoon with gusts up
to 25 knots. winds and gusts will relax this evening 5 to 10
knots overnight into saturday morning.

outlook...isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible saturday afternoon/early evening. non-vfr would be
limited to just the strongest showers/storms. additional
showers and storms are possible sunday afternoon through tuesday
morning with the potential for more non-vfr coverage.

&&

.marine...
high pressure south of lake erie will keep the weather fairly
quiet for the next couple of days. westerly winds of 10 to 18
knots and waves of 2 to 3 feet are expected today through
saturday. winds will start out variable on sunday but a low
pressure system will track eastward into the upper ohio valley
late sunday. east to northeasterly wind 15 to 25 knots will
develop sunday afternoon through monday and waves of 3 to 6
feet. a small craft advisory will likely be needed late sunday
through monday for higher winds and waves. high pressure builds
back in over the lake by tuesday with a light northerly wind
around 10 knots.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...13
aviation...77
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
522
fxus63 kiwx 191931
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
331 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

.key messages...

- light rain showers across the area tonight into early saturday
with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder especially for our far
northern portions.

- widespread, moderate to heavy rain is expected sunday evening
into monday with some embedded thunderstorms for especially
the southern third of the area. total rainfall amounts of 1-3"
are expected.

- cool weather persists through the next seven days with highs
in the 70s.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 133 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

cool weather continues (highs in the 70s with lows in the 50s) with
a thickening cumulus deck into this evening as a weak
disturbance moves through the great lakes region and skirts our
area to the north into saturday early morning hours. periodic
chances of rain and thunderstorms will continue over the next
several days with a cyclonic flow aloft in place due to a broad
low circulation centered over central canada.

we will see a short break saturday night into sunday morning
before a stronger disturbance moves eastward into the region on
sunday into monday and right now there is question to exactly
where the circulation exactly tracks. as the further north the
storm tracks the better the chances for thunderstorms (perhaps
strong to severe) would be for parts of our cwa. as of this
afternoon consensus is for a little further south track which
would lower our chances for the stronger storms and a bit less
rainfall that most of the area will see with the circulation
deformation zone overhead on the north side of the system. spc
currently has a general thunderstorms threat for our
southwestern portions of the cwa with a marginal threat just on
the fringe of white county. wpc also has our entire area under a
slight risk for the excessive rainfall outlook for day 3.
current thinking is total rainfall will range 1 to 2 inches with
the possibility of a few locations hitting the 3 inch mark. the
heaviest rainfall will fall across the southern portions of the
area but again will need to closely monitor the exact track as
that will dictate if we see higher/lower amounts.

another break in activity is expected by monday evening into
tuesday before another system moves into the area late tuesday
into wednesday. details are a bit sparse right now with this
system but in the coming days we will have a better idea. this
looks to be another system to watch.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1232 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

vfr conditions expected to persist through the taf cycle.
a weak upper shortwave tracks through later tonight with a few
showers possible in a 2-4 hour window. dry otherwise with
northwest winds near 12 knots this afternoon diminishing and
backing more to the west-southwest this evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
614
fxus63 kdtx 191847
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
247 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

.key messages...

- mainly dry today with isolated to widely scattered showers
possible focused over the thumb this afternoon-evening.

- scattered showers are possible saturday morning. additional
chances saturday afternoon in addition to isolated thunderstorm
chances.

- broader coverage of showers and thunderstorms possible sunday
evening and overnight, especially south of i-94.

- cooler than normal temperatures are expected through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.discussion...

healthy diurnal cumulus response today as weak mid-level cold
advection has supported steepening lower level lapse rates. weak
resultant instability (<500 j/kg) is focused over the thumb where
coolest air aloft resides offering an isolated to widely scattered
shower chance through the evening. lack of instability precludes
thunderstorm chances however a rumble or two of thunder is possible
given freezing levels around 7kft.

shortwave ridging overnight is shunted east by the arrival of a
compact wave arriving out of the upper midwest late tonight-early
saturday morning. accompanying nocturnal convection is expected to
at least partially decay as it arrives over se mi owing to both
unfavorable diurnal timing as well as the lingering drier resident
airmass (pw near 0.6"/td near 50f). this am activity does augment
the column moisture profile as top-down saturation occurs by late
morning supporting afternoon convective potential as a peak of
~500j/kg of mlcape develops. greatest chances for convective showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm continue to look favored over the saginaw
valley/thumb where the faint surface `warm front` stalls providing a
weak convergence axis in addition to closer proximity to the parent
pv anomaly.

another brief period of low amplitude mid-level ridging follows
saturday night into sunday morning before a plains shortwave ejects
into the ohio valley late sunday. mid-range model trends have held
with a more southerly track in the wave resulting in the attendant
warm front holding near or just south of the state line. given
northerly flow over lower mi from northern ontario high pressure,
expect a sharper cutoff to the precip shield than the current broad
brushed likely pops from the nbm. areas south of m-59 stand the best
chances to see showers sunday night-monday morning with heaviest
rainfall totals (around 1") confined to near the ohio border.

thermal troughing continues to hold over the great lakes through
midweek maintaining seasonally cool conditions with highs in the
lower 70s and lows in the lower 50s. next chances for showers and
thunderstorms come wednesday with the arrival of a weak upper
midwest shortwave.

&&

.marine...

a ridge of high pressure will build in tonight through tomorrow
morning which will diminish wind speeds and gust intensity
overnight. a diffuse area of high pressure will then hold over the
great lakes through the weekend which will support lighter winds.
periodic rain showers will be possible as multiple upper-level
disturbances move over the region. a low pressure system will then
arrive over the ohio valley and southern great lakes sunday night to
monday morning, this will bring the next likely chances for rain and
some embedded thunderstorms and some stronger wind gusts, mainly
across lake erie and lake st. clair.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 100 pm edt fri jun 19 2026

aviation...

scattered to broken vfr cu developed on schedule late this morning,
with at least scattered clouds persisting through the hanging around
for the afternoon. breezy westerly winds topping out around 25 knots
will continue, but then quickly subsiding early this evening and
backing to the southwest.

the next low-pressure system tracks into the western great lakes
tonight. this system produces scattered showers that move into
southeast michigan with pockets of mvfr ceilings toward sunrise
saturday. as the low moves through northern lower michigan on
saturday, continued redevelopment of showers expected, but mainly
over the thumb region and northern taf sites. there is also a low
chance of an isolated thunderstorm both late tonight and saturday.

d21/dtw convection... very low chance of a thundestorm late tonight
into saturday.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5 kft this afternoon, moderate late
tonight and saturday.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......am
aviation.....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.