Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1020 pm edt sun sep 8 2024

.synopsis...
a weak disturbance will cross the area monday as high pressure
continues to build across the eastern united states. the high
will maintain influence through most of the week.

&&

.near term /through monday night/...

9:30 pm update...

no changes needed for the overnight period. temperatures are
running a solid 10 degrees warmer than this time last night, so
lows appear to be on track.

6:30 pm update...

the forecast remains on track this evening. winds will diminish
quickly over the next hour with nocturnal decoupling, but
increasing clouds and weak warm air advection ahead of a
shortwave dropping through the longwave trough will still lead
to a slightly milder night.

original discussion...

for the most part, dry weather will persist across the area
through the near term period. the only exception will be across
nw pa where a few showers may clip erie county as a trough
pushes across the region monday. with that being said, surface
high pressure will suppress the best moisture to the east of the
cwa so the higher chance of showers should be focused across
western new york (which will be downwind from lake erie). pops
are limited to slight chance (less than 25 percent). despite the
dry weather across most of the area, it will be quite blustery
late monday morning into monday afternoon with southwest wind
gusts to 20 to 30 mph expected. the highest gusts will occur
close to lake erie and in the flatter terrain of nw oh.

another night of unseasonably cool temperatures is on tap with
tonight`s overnight lows falling into the 40s. locations along
the lakeshore will most likely remain in the 50s tonight. a
warming trend begins to unfold monday and expect highs in the
70s with lower 80s likely west of i-71. the warming trend will
be apparent with overnight lows as well; minimum temperatures
are expected to be in the 50s areawide.

&&

.short term /tuesday through wednesday night/...
aloft, a ridge builds slowly from the upper midwest and vicinity
through wednesday night. the attendant surface ridge continues to
affect our cwa as the axis of this surface ridge shifts from the
eastern great lakes toward the northeastern united states while
remaining in vicinity of the southern appalachians. this evolution
of the weather pattern at the surface and aloft will allow synoptic-
scale low-level waa to affect our area as stabilizing subsidence
accompanying the ridge promotes fair weather. daytime heating,
complemented by the aforementioned low-level waa, will allow late
afternoon highs to reach the the upper 70`s to mid 80`s on tuesday
and the 80`s to near 90f on wednesday. a weak synoptic mslp gradient
and sufficient daytime heating of land surrounding ~71f lake erie
are expected to allow a lake breeze to occur over/within several
miles of the lake each late morning through early evening. in
general, the coolest highs are expected within the lake breeze.
overnight lows are forecast to reach mainly the 50`s to lower 60`s
around daybreak wednesday and thursday mornings, respectively.

&&

.long term /thursday through sunday/...
the core of the aforementioned ridge aloft is expected to move
slowly from the upper midwest and vicinity toward the northeastern
states and mid-atlantic states on thursday through sunday. this is
expected to allow our cwa to remain along the western flank of the
attendant surface ridge, which should become anchored in vicinity of
the spine of the appalachians. accordingly, net low-level waa will
continue to impact our region. this weather pattern evolution at the
surface and aloft is still projected to allow a tropical cyclone to
make landfall somewhere along the gulf of mexico coast of la on late
wednesday or early thursday and wobble generally n`ward toward the
lower oh valley by sunday while weakening into a remnant low. fair
weather is expected in our cwa on thursday through friday as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. however, very moist
isentropic ascent and resulting release of at least weak instability
accompanying the remnant low may trigger isolated showers and
thunderstorms across our cwa overnight friday night through sunday.
however, odds for unsettled weather remain low.

daytime heating and the aforementioned synoptic low-level waa will
allow late afternoon highs to reach the 80`s to near 90f on thursday
through friday. the coolest highs are expected over/within several
miles of ~71f lake erie due to lake breeze development each late
morning through early evening. slightly cooler highs in the 80`s are
expected this upcoming saturday and sunday as widespread cloud cover
associated with the moist isentropic ascent accompanying the remnant
low overspreads our region generally from the south and limits
daytime heating. overnight lows are expected to reach mainly the mid
50`s to mid 60`s around daybreak friday morning through sunday
morning, respectively.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
vfr will continue through the taf cycle as high pressure remains
in control. a weak trough could bring a stray shower to keri
monday morning between about 09 and 15z, but confidence is low.

w to sw winds will average 5-10 knots tonight becoming w and
increasing to 15-25 knots monday.

outlook...mainly vfr expected through friday.

&&

.marine...
a small craft advisory/beach hazards statement are in effect from 5
am to 8 pm edt monday for vermilion to avon point. farther east, the
small craft advisory/beach hazards statement have been extended
until 10 pm monday for avon point to ripley. a ridge builds slowly
from the upper midwest through monday. however, a potent trough will
sweep se`ward across lake erie on monday and interact with the
ridge. w`erly to sw`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots and waves as
large as 2 to 5 feet are expected the rest of today. on monday,
sw`erly to w`erly winds are expected to freshen to as strong as 15
to 25 knots as the mslp gradient tightens in response to the
aforementioned trough/ridge interaction. waves will build to as
large as 4 to 9 feet. note: waterspouts may accompany showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern-third of lake erie monday morning
through monday evening. winds are expected to become variable and
ease quickly to 15 knots or less monday night behind the trough and
as the ridge continues to build from the west. waves subside to 3
feet by daybreak tuesday.

variable winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are
expected on tuesday through friday as the ridge continues to affect
lake erie and the core of the ridge moves from the eastern great
lakes region toward the northeastern united states.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement from 5 am edt monday through monday
evening for ohz010.
beach hazards statement through monday evening for ohz011-012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement through monday evening for paz001.
ny...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 5 am to 8 pm edt monday for lez145.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt monday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...maines
near term...garuckas/maines
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...garuckas
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
610 pm edt sun sep 8 2024

.key messages...

- canadian wildfire smoke in the upper levels will give skies a
smoggy/cloudy look through at least sunday morning.

- a significant warmup continues and will peak toward thursday.
highs through next week be well into the 80s, and perhaps
into the lower 90s wednesday and thursday.

- drought conditions expected to increase with no rain expected
through the work week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 227 pm edt sun sep 8 2024

in the short term some upper level wildfire smoke has been
transported southeastward and will give the skies cloudy look
through at least sunday morning and have added an increase in
cloud cover to address this fact. otherwise, pretty quiet
weather will dominate this week with a warming trend bringing
near to above normal temperatures beginning tomorrow. mondays
highs will be in the upper 70s. normal highs for fort wayne and
south bend is currently at 79 and 77 respectively. temperatures
will peak on thursday with highs approaching the 90 degree mark.

a weakening meandering tropical system may work it`s way
northward from the gulf of mexico into the region by late friday
bringing increased chances of showers along with a few
thunderstorms, however confidence is low at this time.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 609 pm edt sun sep 8 2024

vfr with light westerly winds on the northern fringes of sfc
high pressure through the taf cycle.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement from 2 am edt monday through monday
afternoon for miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 2 am to 5 pm edt monday for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...andersen
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
616 pm edt sun sep 8 2024

.key messages...

- a light shower or sprinkle cannot be ruled out over the thumb late
tonight and early monday morning.

- breezier midday monday with gusts to around 25 mph.

- mainly dry conditions in-place through the workweek with low
humidity and steadily increasing temperatures.

- thursday will be the warmest day of the week as highs maximize in
the upper 80s to near 90f.

&&

.aviation...

recent uptick in cumulus coverage is quickly mixing out and only
expecting some residual boundary layer based clouds early this
evening. a weak upper-level disturbance upstream of the area will
slide southeast, signaled by the presence of a deck of mid-level
clouds and maybe a light shower - especially across the northern
airspace. meanwhile, winds will continue to relax and back to the
southwest tonight. expecting a rapid re-emergence of somewhat gusty
west/southwest flow monday morning, as a more favorable environment
for mixing works across. as the disturbance exits to the east later
monday, a rather sharp frontal boundary, with assistance from lake
huron, will release south across southeast michigan - starting mid-
afternoon and continuing into the evening. it will take the balance
of the evening to reach the immediate detroit airspace and will lose
much of it`s momentum by then. otherwise, vfr conditions are
expected through the forecast time window - with pockets of ceilings
in the 5-10kft layer.

for dtw/d21 convection...no thunderstorms are forecast through the
taf period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5kft tonight and monday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 239 pm edt sun sep 8 2024

discussion...

a transitional period gets underway this afternoon across southeast
michigan as the pv anomaly that governed conditions throughout the
weekend consolidates over quebec. this adjustment helps clear the
southwestern periphery of the occluded low from the region and
initiates a period of moderating thermodynamics as geopotential
heights begin to rebound ahead of an advancing western conus ridge.
meanwhile, weak cva embedded within a shortwave trough positioned
near the inflection point of the longwave wave pattern descends over
lake superior and lake huron tonight. resulting dynamic ascent
appears rather inconsequential given low specific humidity values
throughout most of the column, but a light shower or sprinkle cannot
be ruled out over the thumb late tonight and early monday morning,
supporting the continuation of entry-level pops (20 percent). clouds
thicken with the passing disturbance causing overnight lows to
rebound into the 50s as more outgoing longwave radiation is
intercepted and re-emitted. additionally, hrrr/rap smoke models
indicate a plume of western wildfire smoke arriving this evening and
overnight, mainly aloft.

surface reflection of the inbound ridge will be quite evident monday
morning as 1024 mb high pressure stretches across the mid
mississippi and ohio valleys by daybreak. flow should theoretically
shift to a more southwesterly trajectory, but the aforementioned
shortwave washes out in the vicinity, forcing a more zonal gradient
wind orientation for the day. still, h8 temps warm to near 12c,
allowing for a shift to climatologically warm readings, in the upper
70s to near 80f via mixing. also increased midday gustiness to
around 25 knots based on enhanced mixed-layer speeds. the synoptic
ridge amplifies into northern canada on tuesday while the axis
drifts eastward. the low-level anticyclone becomes well-established
to the southeast by tuesday afternoon with winds over southern lower
michigan decreasing and trending southwesterly. temperatures warm by
a couple more degrees tuesday, but the core of the thermal ridge
marked by h7 temps of 13c generally remains fixed across the
intermountain west.

the emergence of a secondary upstream ridge axis maintains
seasonably hot and dry conditions wednesday through friday, as daily
highs continue to rise. the hottest day appears to be thursday with
potential for temperatures to approach 90f for the western part of
the cwa. this closed high of 590 dam forms over northern michigan on
thursday while also setting up a rex block once a tropical cyclone
tracks north out of the gulf coast. rain chances will likely hold
off for the area until next weekend once the post-tropical system
breaks down with the assistance of an impending pacific trough. this
allows dewpoints to climb into the 60s for the first time since the
end of august.

marine...

milder air is streaming into the central great lakes this afternoon
with westerly winds topping out at or just above 20 knots. 850 mb
temps progged to rise further, into the lower teens tomorrow
morning, ahead of a cold front dropping south. westerly winds could
briefly approach 25 knots over lake huron, but with the offshore
flow and waves under 4 feet, not planning on a issuing a small craft
advisory. the weak cold front is expected to clear lake huron by
evening, with just light northerly flow following the passage. ridge
of high pressure in place for tuesday will assure light winds, with
just light southerly winds developing during the mid week period as
sprawling high pressures moves to the east coast. with weak pressure
gradient/ridging holding on, light winds look to persist right into
the first half of the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mann
discussion...kgk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.