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Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
412 am edt fri mar 22 2019

.synopsis...
a cold front will drop south across the area today. high
pressure will build southeast from the upper great lakes tonight
into the ohio valley saturday, moving off the carolina coast by
sunday. low pressure will track east through the ohio valley
sunday night and monday as a cold front drops south across the
great lakes. high pressure will build across the region monday
night through midweek.

&&

.near term /through saturday/...
a potent mid level shortwave currently over the central great
lakes will dig southeast through the area, cutting off over
ny/pa this afternoon. this will bring a surface cold front south
through the area during the day. precipitation will develop and
move southeast across the eastern half of the area today with
the passage of the front/wave. the timing of best precip
potential is from 15z through 21z, especially across the primary
snow belt with post frontal lake enhancement and upslope. have
high likely/cat pops for the snow belt, with chance pops
extending westward through a good portion of the forecast area
during this time frame. pops will linger the longest across nw
pa, where lake effect/upslope will keep precipitation ongoing
into the evening. thermal profiles are marginal for rain/snow
during the morning hours, especially west of a cleveland to
canton line. the stronger pockets of precip should allow for
diabatic cooling processes and mainly snow, especially as the
afternoon progresses with low level caa. currently forecasting
inch or less accumulations given the marginal surface
temperatures and late season sun angle, with mainly
grassy/elevated surfaces seeing accumulations. however, where
more moderate snowfall persists across the higher elevations of
nw pa, snow accumulations may become more robust. 2 to 4 inch
accumulations aren`t out of the question across the higher
elevations of southern erie/northern crawford counties, with
locally higher amounts of 5 to 6 inches possible in eastern erie
county where the snow persists the longest. drier air will move
into the area tonight, with high pressure building southeast
across the area. precip should all but end across most of the
area this evening, and in northwest pa shortly after midnight.
dry conditions and clearing skies will prevail late friday night
through the day on saturday. highs will top out near 40 today
across the western half of the forecast area, with temperatures
holding steady in the mid 30s across northeast ohio and
northwest pa through midday, falling into the low 30s this
afternoon behind the front. winds will ramp up out of the north
northwest with the frontal passage, with gusts during the day
today in the 30-40 mph range. a cool night is expected with lows
in the low to mid 20s for most of the area. highs on saturday
will range from the mid/upper 30s across northwest pa to the low
to mid 40s across northern ohio.

&&

.short term /saturday night through monday night/...
high pressure will be in control of the region saturday night before
drifting off the middle atlantic coast by sunday morning. expect dry
conditions through at least sunday morning. beyond this time we will
begin to feel the impacts of low pressure that will track eastward
near the ohio river valley. the best chances of rain will be sunday
night into early monday, then end from west to east monday
afternoon. there could be a few snow showers that mix in across ne
oh into nw pa monday morning but accumulations are not expected at
this time. high pressure should take control of the region by monday
night.

sunday should be a warm day with most locations near or slightly
above 50. if the cloud cover does not thicken up by sunday afternoon
we may be able to add a couple degrees. cooler on monday in the wake
of the area of low pressure with highs in the upper 30s to lower
40s.

&&

.long term /tuesday through thursday/...
high pressure will then dominate the region monday night through
tuesday night. the high should move of the middle atlantic coast on
wednesday with a warmer southerly wind anticipated. warm advection
will increase wednesday night into thursday as low pressure begins
to take shape over the central plains. there could be a few showers
that sneak into nw ohio by thursday night but we have plenty of time
to monitor this potential.

tuesday will be the cold day of the long term with highs in the mid
30s to lower 40s. it will then warm each day through thursday. highs
thursday afternoon should reach the middle to upper 50s.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
mvfr ceilings will persist across the region early this morning,
with some pockets of clearing possibly working into ktol/kfdy
before 12z. a quick moving cold front will drop south across the
area today, which will keep conditions mvfr to possibly ifr,
especially downwind of lake erie. precip is expected at eastern
terminals, especially keri/kcle/kyng and possibly kcak/kmfd. a
rain/snow mix is expected generally transitioning to mainly snow
after 15-18z in the heavier burst of precip. high pressure moves
into the region by the end of the period with clearing skies on
tap just beyond the forecast period. west winds will become
northwest behind the front today, gusting to 30-35 kts before
subsiding after 00z.

outlook...non-vfr conditions friday afternoon through saturday
morning. non-vfr likely monday.

&&

.marine...
clipper type storm system will sweep across the region today with
northwesterly winds increasing in its wake. believe 30 knots will
cover it but am slightly concerned we could have a very short lived
gale that occurs from noon to around 6 pm. for now will go with a
small craft advisory for the entire lakeshore. the small craft
advisory will persist the longest on the east half of the lake. the
east half should see small craft advisory conditions until saturday
morning. high pressure builds over the lake on saturday with lighter
winds. the high should then be nudged eastward off the middle
atlantic coast by sunday morning. as low pressure moves eastward
near the ohio river valley sunday night into monday we should see
north to northeast winds increase. sunday night into monday will be
another period where we will need to monitor for a small craft
advisory.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 11 am edt
saturday for lez146>149.
small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez142>145.

&&

$$
synopsis...greenawalt
near term...greenawalt
short term...mm
long term...mm
aviation...greenawalt
marine...mm

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
608 am edt fri mar 22 2019

.synopsis...
issued at 337 am edt fri mar 22 2019

a brief light rain or snow shower is possible this morning as a
weak upper level system moves south across the area. skies will
clear as high pressure builds in by late today with highs around
40. dry conditions are expected saturday before the next system
moves across the area sunday accompanied by rain. highs this
weekend will be from around 45 to near 50.

&&

.short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 336 am edt fri mar 22 2019

a weak upper level trof will move south today across lower michigan
into northern indiana early today. very limited moisture is
available ahead of this system. there is a small chance for a
light rain or snow shower or a sprinkle; however, most areas will
remain dry. high pressure will build into the region late today
and tonight and bring clearing skies as subsidence increases. the
clearing skies, along with a dry and cold airmass will allow
temperatures to fall well down into the 20s tonight as winds
become light.

&&

.long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 336 am edt fri mar 22 2019

an upper low will move out of the great basin region and into the
central plains saturday. this system will reach the forecast area
sunday and bring a round of rain starting by late sunday. thermal
profiles favor essentially an all-rain event, although it is
possible for snow to briefly mix with rain late sunday night
before ending. it does not appear that there will be any travel
issues early monday with most roads staying just wet. rainfall
amounts should be around or under a quarter of an inch near the
michigan line up to three-quarters of an inch from near portland
to lima. chilly temperatures are ahead monday and tuesday as cold
air spreads back across the area. temperatures will then rise above
normal by late this coming week with chances for rain increasing
once again ahead of the next system.

&&

.aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z saturday morning)
issued at 608 am edt fri mar 22 2019

upstream sw trough now over nrn lwr mi will continue sewd through
the ern lakes today resulting in a return of lower vfr bound
stratocu by mid morning as potent secondary cold front comes
through. expect gusty nw winds to develop within intense post
frontal cold advection wing with peak gusts aoa 25kts mid morning
through late aftn.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...none.
&&

$$

synopsis...skipper
short term...skipper
long term...skipper
aviation...t


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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
355 am edt fri mar 22 2019

.discussion...

exceptionally strong potential vorticity anomaly, complete with a
closed h5 525dam circulation, is dropping due southward through lake
superior this morning. this is on the heels of the strong vorticity
maximum that swung through the region some 24 hours ago. the close
proximity of the features never allowed a true warm sector to
develop and take root. as a result, southerly flow now in place will
remain soft and only skin deep. plan view progs of system relative
isentropic ascent really tells the pertinent story with northwesterly
system relative flow in place above 875mb. forcing for ascent will
now rely on brute strength of heart of differential cyclonic
vorticity advection. best focus for this will occur directly over
eastern lower michigan between 09-15z with best 1000- 850mb fgen
circulation striping directly over the saginaw bay and northern thumb.
regional mosaic has come to life here in the past hour, with z
increasing over the u.p. and through the straits. the snow showers
are in response to the dcva acting upon a lake moisture contribution.
the previous discussion made note of steep lapse rates that will
exist through 6.5 kft agl and the -10c isotherm. will maintain the
previous forecast calling for likely snow or rain/snow mix this
morning over the northern cwa. very little accumulation potential is
expected. with the magnitude of the dcva will also continue a chance
for precipitation over most areas this morning.

the narrative today is also dictated by a strong degree of cold air
advection that will infiltrate the cwa after the noon hour. gusty
northwest winds of up to 30 mph will result from deep mixing down to
the surface and surface dewpoints dropping sharply to around 20
degrees by late afternoon. this is expected to result in apparent
temperatures ranging in the upper teens to the upper 20s. as a
comparison, normal high temperatures for this part of march are 44
to 48 degrees. this really is a noteworthy midlevel cold pool.

well organized upper level confluent flow with no warm advection
will result in building surface high pressure friday night and
saturday. southeast michigan is forecasted to reside along the
fringe of the surface high which will result in a mixed westerly
gradient flow. high end signal exists for high column stability. full
insolation will allow for temperatures to reach the low to middle
40s.

shortwave over the central plains will meander eastward within the
blocked flow, maintaining enough integrity as it tracks into the
southern great lakes by sunday evening. zonal flow will lead to weak
baroclinic zone development immediately south of the state. this
will allow the shortwave to generate some modest frontal
forcing/isentropic ascent over beginning late sunday afternoon. an
interesting pattern evolution is forecasted to the north of the area.
strong agreement exists in depicting a maximum in the longwave
ridge/high geopotential heights migrating southeastward out of
central canada. a differential increase in heights results in a
strong positive anticyclonic flow tendency and a rapid stabilization
of the atmosphere immediately north of the ohio river valley
baroclinic zone. net result is for best support for precipitation to
get squeezed south and east of the area by monday. all signs point to
a longwave ridge building into the region which would bring quiet
and warming weather for the beginning to middle of next week.

&&

.marine...

post frontal cold advection today will allow for deeper mixing with
northwest winds gusts to gales over much of lake huron. otherwise,
small craft advisories are in effect for gusts around 30 knots.
the airmass looks to be just cold enough for freezing spray over the
open waters of lake huron as well. winds look to be slowly
decreasing tonight as high pressure slides south through the western
great lakes and into the ohio valley on saturday. this will allow
winds to shift to the southwest over the weekend, but wind speeds
will be much lighter with the warm advection pattern.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1149 pm edt thu mar 21 2019

aviation...

a narrow sfc ridge axis was able to support a fairly aggressive
clearing trend this evening. a deep upper trough now pushing toward
se mi from the north will drive a cold front across se mi around
06z, leading to a gradual veering of the winds to the northwest.
post frontal moisture advection and steepening lapse rates will
support scattered to numerous snow showers across se mi during the
morning. ceilings and visibilities are likely to show wide
variability through the morning. strong high pressure will then push
into the area from the northwest friday afternoon. this and good mid
level subsidence will inhibit much of an afternoon diurnal response.
a strong post frontal northwest gradient, with a deepening mixed
layer due to both cold air advection and diurnal heating will
support gusty winds, likely over 25 knots at times, through the day
friday.

for dtw...the sfc cold front will pass across metro shortly after
06z. while the better chances for morning snow showers is expected
to hold north of metro, there is at least a good chance for some
brief snow shower activity centered in the 11 to 15z time frame.
there is expected to be enough of a northerly wind component to
limit the potential for crosswind concerns friday morning within the
gusty post frontal winds.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 ft tonight and friday.

* moderate in precip type being snow tonight and friday morning.

* low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded friday morning and
afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from 8 am this morning to 11 pm edt this evening for
lhz362-363-441>443-462>464.

small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lhz422.

small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 11 am edt saturday
for lhz421.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lez444.

&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......sf
aviation.....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.