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Lucas and Wood Counties

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000
fxus61 kcle 080608
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
108 am est wed dec 8 2021

.synopsis...
high pressure will move east of the area tonight as weak low
pressure tracks northeast across the western great lakes tonight
into wednesday. high pressure will build over the region
wednesday night into thursday, before the next system impacts
the region late thursday through early saturday.

&&

.near term /through tonight/...
the forecast looks good for the overnight. just tweaked temps,
dew points, and winds based on recent observations. light snow
associated with isentropic ascent well to the north of a
shortwave trough and associated surface low crossing the
southern and central appalachians has spread into the region.
low-level dry air is causing most of this to be virga, but some
saturation is beginning to occur over the far south and
southeast counties. expect the best chance for light snow to be
from mt vernon and canton ne through the erie, pa area through
12z before the mid level moisture rapidly exits. light
accumulations of a trace to a tenth or two are possible.

previous discussion...

the upper-level trough advances eastward across our cwa on
wednesday. flow will become westerly to northwesterly in the
wake of the aforementioned surface low late wednesday afternoon
into wednesday evening, which will lead to another round of
lake-effect snow in the snowbelt region through the end of the
period. not anticipating any significant impacts wednesday night
as inversion heights fall and moisture decreases significantly
with the approach of ridging at the surface and aloft from the
west. snowfall totals shouldn`t amount to more than an inch.
fair weather is likely outside the lake-effect snow. wednesday`s
highs will reach the low to mid 30`s. lows should fall into the
lower 20`s wednesday night.

&&

.short term /thursday through friday night/...
upper level ridging will take place over the eastern united states
with an upper level trough diving into the central plains states by
friday morning. this upper level feature will cause low pressure to
develop over the oklahoma panhandle and then begin to move
northeast. the surface low along with high pressure off the east
coast will set-up warm air advection into the forecast area from the
southwest. the surface low pressure system is progged to move
northeast into the western great lakes friday night forcing a warm
front north across the local area. copious amounts of moisture will
stream northeast out of the gulf of mexico into the region ahead of
a cold front. latest model soundings indicate instability will
develop well ahead of the cold front in the warm air advection.
winds aloft will increase to around 70 knots between 5000 and 10000
feet above the surface. instability should be sufficient for the
development of a few thunderstorms and potential exists for these
storms to tap into the higher winds aloft. hodographs support a
veering profile and high shear environment by cape remains low. so,
will need to monitor storms if they develop; especially friday
night. temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 40s thursday
for highs ahead of the warm front. otherwise, lows will stay in the
middle to upper 30s central and west portions of the area thursday
night. warm air advection will bump temperatures up into the lower
60s for friday across much of the area. mild temperatures continue
friday night into the lower 50s over much of the area and lower 40s
extreme east.

&&

.long term /saturday through tuesday/...
deep digging positively tilted upper level trough will dive into the
central plains by the weekend and amplify with time. this trough
will enhance the upper level ridge over the eastern seaboard by
saturday morning. the overall pattern will force the surface low
moving northeast through the western great lakes to deepen with
time. the forecast area will remain in the warm sector during the
first half of the weekend with copious amounts of moisture streaming
north ahead of a cold front. showers will be gradually shifting east
and out of the area saturday night in the wake of the cold front
that will move through the area saturday. cold air advection will
take place behind the cold front saturday and eventually showers
will become mixed with snow saturday night. otherwise, as surface
and upper level ridge build into the region, fair weather will
return sunday through tuesday. strong warm air advection will take
place saturday morning and warm air will give way to cold air
advection as the cold front moves east across the area. highs will
occur in the morning and then fall into the 40s by afternoon and to
the upper 20s to around 30 for lows saturday night. the showers
exiting east saturday night will transition into lake effect in
northwest flow. highs sunday through tuesday will warm from the 40s
sunday to the upper 40s to around 50 by tuesday. otherwise, lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
mainly vfr is expected at all taf sites through this morning,
but periodic light snow could lead to brief mvfr vis at cak,
yng, and eri early this morning. confidence is medium on this.
for this afternoon and tonight, vfr is generally expected to
prevail as high pressure builds in, but lake-effect clouds and
possibly a stray snow shower could bring periods of mvfr to yng
and eri early to mid afternoon before going vfr tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible with periods of snow and/or rain
through this weekend.

&&

.marine...
winds continue to diminish across the lake this afternoon and will
allow the small craft advisory to expire. otherwise, winds will be
fairly light across the lake through wednesday morning. low pressure
will move east across the northern great lakes wednesday and winds
will diminish wednesday night. high pressure will build into the
area wednesday night and a return southeast flow will develop in the
wake of the high pressure. southwest flow will develop by thursday
night increasing to southwest at 15 to 25 knots at least by friday
night shifting to west-northwest saturday behind a strong cold
front. winds will diminish and gradually becoming westerly
sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...maines
near term...garuckas/jaszka/maines
short term...lombardy
long term...lombardy
aviation...garuckas
marine...lombardy

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 080556
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1256 am est wed dec 8 2021

.synopsis...
issued at 1247 am est wed dec 8 2021

a few flurries are possible into tonight as a weak system passes
by. otherwise, another night of cold temperatures is in store
with lows in the low 20s. highs still stay below normal, but rise
into the 30s wednesday. our next chance for precipitation occurs
thursday night.

&&

.short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 259 pm est tue dec 7 2021

the 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal 850 temperatures will
slowly slide north and east away from the area this evening, but
surface temperatures will still be about 5 to 10 degrees below
normal this evening into wednesday. as such, have lows dropping into
the low 20s tonight with some insulation from cloud cover. this
is a little warmer than last night, though, for whatever
consolation that provides.

a large scale trough moves through the area tonight into wednesday.
weak vorticity waves moving through the flow and even a weak low
pressure system will help to force some moisture within the mid
levels of the atmosphere and there is some isentropic lift within
the low levels. however, there`s just so much dry air in the low
levels of the atmosphere that it`s really hard to see much more than
flurries come out of this system as it swings through.

winds do eventually swing around to more northwesterly later
wednesday morning into the early afternoon behind the aforementioned
weak departing low pressure system. vorticity within the swinging
trough will provide some support for a brief, weak lake effect snow
signal with weakly negative theta-e instability, convergent low
level winds, some low level moisture, and inversion heights briefly
up to around 7000 ft. as such, have added a few hundredths of qpf
mainly in berrien and cass counties leading to less than an inch
of accumulation of snow mainly on grassy surfaces.

&&

.long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 259 pm est tue dec 7 2021

strong warm air advection out in front of a the next low pressure
system helps us warm into the upper 30s to upper 40s for thursday,
which is more near normal for this time of year. also increased
winds with some 20 to 25 kt gusts possible underneath. with some low
level moisture flux convergence, some moisture will be able to form
out ahead of this trough, but the low levels will be quite dry
limiting precip output from this system. as such, have removed
mentionable pops with this system until thursday night.

we continue to warm friday with highs into the 50s and 60s as the
theta-e plume pushes northeast through the forecast area, which is
farther north than it was on thursday. the potential vorticity for
this low pressure system is shaped into a hook, which signifies a
strong low pressure system with good upper level support. the system
has more moisture in its column and 850 dew points rise above 10c
especially for areas east of i-69. as such, will continue the 60+
pops for later friday into saturday. another period of les is
possible saturday following the passage of the low pressure system.

then the subtropical ridge builds into the southeast us and locks
itself down there ushering in a warm and dry period for the area.

&&

.aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z wednesday night)
issued at 1247 am est wed dec 8 2021

vfr to mvfr conditions are expected at the taf sites through the
period. there could be some flurries tonight at both sites,
however dry air has been successful at keeping anything from
developing thus far-so opted to keep a dry forecast until
tomorrow. have vcsh from 15-23z at ksbn, with a tempo between
19-23z for -shsn and 1500 ft ceilings as a weak system passes the
area, shifting winds from s-se to nw. light flurries may continue
later than what is in the forecast now, but left out given lower
confidence. dry air should preclude anything impactful at either
terminal. vfr conditions will prevail at kfwa.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...none.
&&

$$

synopsis...roller
short term...roller
long term...roller
aviation...mcd


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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 080458
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1158 pm est tue dec 7 2021


.aviation...

weak lift with an upper-level disturbance will aid in the production
of light snow early wednesday morning with the best forcing focused
form ptk north. will maintain prevailing snow during the pre-dawn
hours within this area with tempo group for i-94 where coverage of
light snow will be more iffy. any snow that materializes is expected
to progress east to northeast out of the region after 12z.

for dtw...flurries/light snow will be possible late tonight as upper
wave crosses the area. ceilings may drop to 5kft or so with this
activity, but remain vfr. sct-bkn stratus near 5kft will then
persist during the day with a clearing trend by evening as surface
trough passes.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium in ceilings at or below 5000 ft on wednesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 350 pm est tue dec 7 2021

discussion...

broad upper level confluence aloft has led to 1023mb surface ridging
extending northward out of the ohio river valley. a cold day across
southeast michigan today with afternoon temperatures running in the
low to mid 20s areawide. the values are roughly 15 degrees below
seasonal averages.

entrance region to upper level jet will remain progressive sliding
into the central and eastern great lakes by 06z tonight. a quick
action in pseudo-zonal flow will cause a potential vorticity trough
to pivot through southeast michigan between 06-18z. absolute
cyclonic vorticity within the trough is very disorganized which
brings bulk of synoptic scale forcing in the initial geopotential
height falls 06-12z tonight. really kind of tricky on where to
settle with the pops late tonight. the overarching problem is the
forecasted uvvs/omega is very weak tonight. qualitatively, the best of
the system relative isentropic ascent appears to be early this
evening between 00-06z, which will be necessary to moisten/saturate
the column. soundings look adequate for snow generation with
saturation wrt ice through the dgz but again limited omega. while
the operational ecmwf is showing a widespread couple hundredths of
liquid equivalent, a tendency metric from time lagged models
including hrrr/rap runs has shown a strong decreasing trends for
pops overnight. for a more consistent forecast with neighbors and
given the consensus of the hires solutions, did lower pops into the
chance category between 6-12z. the high confidence portion of this
event is that snow amounts will be limited to a couple of tenths or a
dusting. the issue is that with temperatures in the low 20s that any
moisture on roadways may result in icy conditions for the wednesday
morning commute.

weak disturbance will track into ontario/quebec wednesday before
ridging extends back across all of southeast michigan wednesday
night. strong differential height rises will lead to warming and
temperatures rising into the middle to upper 30s thursday. southern
stream energy is forecasted to cross over tracking through southeast
michigan thursday night. really no question on ptype given the
sounding with a cold profile and elevated frontal surface through
the dgz. strong anticyclonic curvature to trajectories will limit
ascent over southeast michigan but models are consistent with
widespread light snow north of i 69.

models showing great continuity with dynamic winter storm system
next weekend. way too early to discuss much on details, but high
confidence exists for this far out that southeast michigan will
remain within the warm sector of the this system. an extreme low
level jet setup with +50 knots at 850mb may bring some elevated
thunder. windy conditions to follow saturday and saturday night.

marine...

high pressure has spread across the area resulting in west-southwest
winds with gusts holding below 20 knots. this has allowed the high
waves from last night to continue to subside through the day. a pair
of weak systems will merge over the straits tonight and consolidate
into a single low which will ridge over the ridge into ontario
wednesday morning. this will result in a several hour period of
light snow tonight after midnight. wind speeds will change little
from this system but directions will veer to the northwest on
wednesday behind a trough axis. a stronger upper level trough will
track across the plains wednesday and approach the great lakes
thursday. this will bring increasing winds out of the southeast.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....dg
discussion...cb
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.