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Lucas and Wood Counties

link
000
fxus61 kcle 180652
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
252 am edt tue jun 18 2019


.synopsis...
a weak stationary front over the area will be nudge southward
as an area of low pressure moves along it this morning. the low
will move east later this morning and force the front south as a
cold front. another low pressure system will move northeast
along the front wednesday. a strong low pressure system will
move east across the area thursday. high pressure builds in
briefly late on friday. another area of low pressure may impact
the region over the weekend.

&&

.near term /through wednesday/...
the low level jet has increased again near 850 mb and
interacting with a stalled out frontal boundary that is near
morrow county east-northward to stark county. a broken line of
convection has redeveloped this morning over north central ohio
just along and north of that boundary over the same areas that
have been hit hard with heavy rainfall over the past few days.
the current flash flood watch goes until 4 am but we might have
to extend the time a little longer by a few hours for a few
counties across east central ohio. we will make that decision
before 4 am. the main concern now through early this morning
will be the moderate to heavy showers impacting areas that are
completely saturated and can`t take anymore rainfall. additional
flooding is possible through the morning commute. guidance
finally shows this rain to move mostly out of our area by mid to
late morning. as this weak disturbance moves east later this
morning, it should give the stalled front a nudge southward
today. most of the area should see a brief break in the rain by
this afternoon and tonight.

a stronger mid level wave will be moving through the 500 mb flow
from the central u.s. into the ohio river valley region late
tonight into wednesday. the stalled frontal boundary will begin
to slowly lift northward again late tonight into wednesday as a
warm front. the first part of the day wednesday looks relatively
rain free but showers and thunderstorms will increase late in the
day especially along and south of the warm front. we could even
see some stronger convection develop in the warm sector and will
be something to monitor. with high pw values between 1.5 and 2.0
inches, heavy rainfall and additional flooding will be a
concern. additional flash flood watches may be needed for this
next system.

&&

.short term /wednesday night through friday night/...
models show low pressure moving out of mo into il 00z thursday along
a stationary front that extends east into central oh. the low will
move east to northern in by 12z thursday lifting the front north
across the area as a warm front. expect rain to spread into the
region through the overnight period ahead of the low. will have
categorical pops west dropping to chance in nwrn pa. thursday the
low moves east across northern ohio. guidance pops are quite high
and while its hard to fight the trend, am concerned that if the area
actually is in the warm sector precip will be more showery and
convective across the area while the more widespread rain in north
of the region. for now will keep pops categorical but watch model
trends. will also taper pops from the northwest mid/late afternoon
as drier air tries to move in behind the low as it exits the region.
thursday night precip should end quickly as the low moves east and
drier air continues to wrap in. friday looks like a decent day with
high pressure in place across the area. friday into friday night
there will also be an upper ridge across the area however friday
night, the gfs shows an active warm front approaching from the
southwest raising some concern about the possibility of overnight
convection encroaching into the western counties. will go along for
now and have chance pops across the west half of the area. highs
thursday and friday in the 70s.

&&

.long term /saturday through monday/...
saturday and sunday the models continue with an upper ridge across
the region which breaks down somewhat sunday evening. will have
chance pops in place for saturday as models show ample low level rh
for at least daytime convection. sunday looks better for convection
as the upper ridge axis shifts east during the afternoon/evening.
for now will continue with chance pops. monday the ridge is gone and
models show an upper short wave trough advancing toward the area.
will keep chance pops in place as this moves through. drier air
moves in for tuesday however li`s on the gfs drop to -9c during the
afternoon so will keep a low chance pop for afternoon convection
possibilities. highs saturday from the upper 70s to near 80. around
80 sunday and monday, dropping back just a couple degrees
tuesday.


&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
a stalled frontal boundary remains from west to east over
northern and central ohio. winds over the next 12 to 24 hours
will remain on the light and variable side near the boundary.
north of the boundary, the winds will be light from the
northeast this morning. by the end of the taf period, the winds
will gradually become southerly about 5 knots as the boundary
slowly lifts northward. patchy fog and mist may impact taf
locations through early this morning with mvfr to pockets of ifr
conditions possible. scattered showers, some briefly moderate to
heavy at times, may also impact locations through early this
morning as well. these impacts will be mainly for central ohio
into east central ohio this morning. ceilings will also lower
through early morning with most locations seeing mvfr to ifr
ceilings by sunrise. ceilings will slowly improve during day
except for areas near the frontal boundary where mvfr ceilings
will linger through the afternoon and evening.

outlook...non-vfr possible through friday.

&&

.marine...
models continue to show an extended period of rather light winds on
lake erie. the only exception will be thursday night into early
friday when winds turn out of the north behind low pressure moving
east of the area. winds will likely increase to the 10 to 20 knot
range and while waves may not reach small craft criteria, boaters
will be bounced around on the south half of the lake for the 18 hour
period. winds drop back to under 10 knots again by late friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flash flood watch until 4 am edt early this morning for ohz017-
020>023-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...griffin
near term...griffin
short term...tk
long term...tk
aviation...griffin
marine...tk

Fulton and Henry Counties

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000
fxus63 kiwx 180456
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1256 am edt tue jun 18 2019

.synopsis...
issued at 1240 am edt tue jun 18 2019

lingering showers south of route 24 this evening should diminish
early this morning. mainly dry weather is then expected tuesday
and tuesday night. then a system will exit the southern plains and
approach midweek and bring a chance for showers and storms
wednesday into thursday. highs will be in the mid 70s to around 80
with lows around 60.

&&

.update...
issued at 825 pm edt mon jun 17 2019

the combination of sheared vorticity maximum lifting northeast
from primary mid ms upper level trough and persistent boundary
sprawled across southern counties has been conducive for shower
and thunderstorms development. bulk of this activity has been
affecting grant, blackford, and jay counties. parts of southern
jay county have experienced one or two rounds of heavy rainfall
the past few days, and greatest hydro concern through remainder of
the evening will be across southern jay county with some street
flooding possible. boundary in vicinity has also been favorable
for a few instances of funnel clouds. activity should gradually
diminish during the late evening into the overnight hours.

&&

.short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 220 pm edt mon jun 17 2019

precip struggling to develop given lingering low clouds that have
resulted in very limited destablization thus far this afternoon
as kiwx radar indicating just a shower or two near southeastern
cwa border. surface analysis has quasi-stationary boundary just to
the south of our cwa and extending southwest back to developing
frontal wave over mo/ar where more organized convection is ongoing
this afternoon. water vapor imagery depicting closed mid-level
circulation vertically stacked over frontal wave which is expected
to open and lift e/ne through ohio valley in the short term. as
this feature tracks south of our area precip chances will be
limited in the short term to chance in far southeast cwa. with
weak flow and little change in airmass will have fog potential
returning overnight as well.

&&

.long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 220 pm edt mon jun 17 2019

more intense frontal wave ejecting out of the plains on wednesday
will bring widespread rain to the area wed night/thursday and
with pw values in excess of 1.5 inches will have potential for
heavy rain. brief period of dry weather possible in the wake of
this system thursday night into friday morning with weak surface
ridging and modest mid-level height rises. surface boundary
continues to meander over the region and subsequent impulses
ejecting out of the plains will keep precip chances off and on
throughout remainder of the long term period.

&&

.aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z tuesday night)
issued at 1238 am edt tue jun 18 2019

the stagnant scenario will persist overnight and should follow
the pattern the past 2 nights with descending ceilings and
lowering visibilities north of a warm front over northern indiana
as plenty of moisture persists over the area with a very light
wind field. high resolution guidance including the hrrr has not
been doing well with this pattern the past couple of night, so
favor persistence similar to the past 2 night. conditions will
become low ifr overnight, with the chance for dense fog again.
kept the integrity of the ongoing tafs with these very low
conditions followed by improvement to vfr hopefully early this
afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...none.
&&

$$

update...marsili
synopsis...marsili/skipper
short term...jal
long term...jal
aviation...skipper


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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
000
fxus63 kdtx 180717
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
317 am edt tue jun 18 2019

.discussion...

moist low level airmass remains in place over southeast michigan
early this morning, as 00z dtx sounding indicated a saturated 850 mb
level, with a temp/dew pt of 11 c. the rest of the atmospheric
profile is relatively dry (outside of the current surface temp/dew pt
spreads), and with breaks in the clouds around today, max temps
should reach into the mid to upper 70s (still slightly below normal),
as yesterday we still did make it into the upper 60s to lower 70s,
even with the thicker cloud cover.

energetic westerly flow over the northern conus with additional
upper level energy ejecting out of the four corners region, making
for a difficult forecast over the next couple of days with pretty
good moisture content (pw values 1.25-1.75 inches)/(125-150 percent
of normal) stretched from the central plains to the mid atlantic
coast.

strong consensus with deepening surface wave slowly tracking through
the ohio valley in the wednesday-thursday time frame. but this wave
will probably end up being fairly compact with increasing fgen
forcing, and northern fringe of the instability gradient (negative
li`s) looks to barely reach/slip past the southern michigan border.

weak northern stream trough axis and associated cold front tracking
through the central great lakes on wednesday, and there is a narrow
850- 700 mb theta-e ridge and moisture pooling (pw values up to 1.5
inches) which will track across southeast michigan during the day.
this will probably be sufficient for at least scattered showers, but
instability is weak, with 1000-850 mb capes progged under 500 j/kg.
this is good news as 0-6 km bulk shear is progged to be a healthy 40
knots.

post trough/upper level ridging will then attempt to help push the
boundary a bit south wednesday evening. however, consolidating upper
level pv taking place across the midwest/western ohio valley, spins
up low pressure which slowly tracks east along the tightening
baroclinic zone wednesday night-thursday. if the wave ends up
weaker/flatter, there is a chance the rain shield or certainly the
bulk of the heavy rain will skirt to the south of the state (see 12z
euro), as we will need a stronger wave/low level jet to shift the
stout 850 mb fgen over southeast michigan (see 00z nam/regional gem).
with 850 mb dew pts of 12-14 c, even with the lack of
instability/thunderstorms, efficient/heavy rain producing showers
will be a concern with relatively slow movement of the focused
forcing which looks to quickly wane thursday afternoon. 00z gfs
ensemble members actually look a bit more variable than last night.
one cluster of surface lows of northern ohio on thursday, with bigger
cluster over southern ohio. this does not give one confidence to
increase pops much over southeast michigan, but the 00z euro has
trended back north again, and will be carrying high likely pops for
the south half of the cwa.

the forecast for the weekend looks even more complicated and wet as
the large upper level low slipping into the pacific northwest pivots
through the northern plains, allowing for a building/dirty upper
level ridge over the mississippi river into ontario. warm
front/baroclinic zone over the western great lakes into lower
michigan through much of the weekend, with high degree of instability
developing over the western ohio valley for complexes (mcs) to tap
into. large degree of timing uncertainty this far out however.

&&

.marine...

favorable marine conditions continue today and tonight with weak
high pressure positioned over lake huron and lower michigan. this
promotes light and variable wind and nearly calm waves through
tonight. dry weather is also expected with the exception of
scattered showers possibly brushing northern lake huron tonight. the
showers are connected to a weak front that brings just a light
northerly wind shift as it settles across the central great lakes to
south of lake erie by wednesday. the next low pressure system
develops over the central plains and moves along the front toward
the west end of lake erie thursday. this system produces a moderate
increase in ne wind and brings a new round of rain mainly from
saginaw bay southward from wednesday night through thursday. weak
high pressure follows by friday.

&&

.hydrology...

weak high pressure brings one more day of dry weather before rain
probability increases wednesday and thursday. midnight wednesday
night to noon thursday is the primary time window for rainfall as a
low pressure system tracks near the southern michigan border. totals
are projected to range from around a quarter inch across the saginaw
valley and northern thumb to around three quarters inch toward the
ohio border. locally higher totals of 1 to 2 inches remain possible
depending on thunderstorm coverage and duration. given this
scenario, the potential for shorter time period flooding is limited
to poor drainage areas while possibly contributing more runoff into
already swollen creeks and streams across the area in the longer
term.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1047 pm edt mon jun 17 2019

aviation...

cigs in the vfr range with occasional mvfr can be expected into
tuesday morning kptk south with deformation gradually shifting to the
east late tonight into tuesday. vfr conditions by afternoon with a
better period of clearing after 00z. with a surface ridge over and
north of the area, wind will remain under 5 knots for the most part.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling 5 kft or less tonight into tuesday morning.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...sf
marine.......bt
hydrology....bt
aviation.....dg


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The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.