Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
000
fxus61 kcle 101152
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
652 am est sun dec 10 2023

.synopsis...
a secondary cold front will move across the central great lakes
today, weakening to a surface trough that lingers near lake
erie through monday evening. high pressure briefly builds into
ohio from the south monday afternoon into monday night. it then
is shoved southward as a clipper like storm system sweeps across
the great lakes region tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.near term /through monday/...
still a few showers near the eastern edges of the cwa. had to
extend pop`s for this area a little longer but dont think they
will persist past 15z. otherwise minimal changes made to the
forecast.

previous discussion...
a brief period of cold advection will occur across the region
through the morning in the wake of a cold front that is now (0830z)
moving toward central pa. this cold advection is likely assisting
with grabbing some moisture off of lake erie as it is lifted near
and east of the 850 mb boundary. these remaining showers located
near and east of a line from ashtabula to canton will move east
of the cwa shortly after sunrise.

the region then begins to see some weak warm advection this
afternoon ahead of an upper level trough that will bring a
reinforcing surge of colder air across the region this evening
into the overnight. lift with the upper level trough enters nw
oh around sunset with some light rain possible. this rain
changes to snow through the evening as it moves northwest to
southeast across the region. the higher terrain of ne oh into nw
pa will be the first locations to see any snow accumulations.
the lake will definitely enhance the snow as the surface cold
front/trough moves onshore. we then see a transition to lake
effect snow overnight as -8 to -10 c air flows across the lake
by sunrise monday. this only generates moderate instability over
the lake which should keep snowfall rates in check. current
thinking is that we may end up with a couple periods (sunday
night and monday) where 1-3 inches of snow may accumulate each
period. heaviest in the hills near and east of i-79. so storm
total snow may reach 3 to 6 inches over a 30 hour period. we
have not hoisted a winter weather advisory at this point in
time. however the day shift will need to focus on the time
period during the monday morning commute to see if the heaviest
snow could occur around this time. if the heaviest burst of snow
does occur around this time we may do an impact based advisory.
stay tuned.

further to the west across the western primary snowbelt a quick
burst of snow may occur overnight then taper off through monday
morning. accumulations look to be in the 1 to locally 3 inch
range at this point in time. flurries may drift across much of
the region through monday afternoon but we do not anticipate
any accumulations away from the primary snowbelt.

mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions gradually become partly
cloudy from west to east on monday. stronger cold advection
tonight into monday should allow for some gusty west to
northwest winds which will make it feel much colder than recent
days. highs today and monday mostly in the 30`s. however a few
locations across the eastern cwa may see highs in the lower 40`s
this morning then drop back into the 30`s by mid to late
morning. lows tonight range from the mid 20`s to lower 30`s.
wind chill temperatures today remain in the 30`s but fall to the
20`s late this evening, then continue into monday afternoon.

&&

.short term /monday night through tuesday night/...
high pressure at the surface and aloft builds e`ward across our
region monday night. primarily fair weather is expected. however,
lingering lake-effect snow (les) will shift generally n`ward across
the primary snowbelt of ne oh and nw pa during the evening. the les
should exit our cwa and shift offshore around midnight monday night
as the mean low-level flow backs from w`erly to sw`erly.
simultaneously, the les is forecast to weaken and then dissipate
during the predawn hours of tuesday morning as a lowering subsidence
inversion and low-level warm/dry air advection cause weak lake-
induced cape to wane. additional snow accumulations are expected to
be one inch or less. lows should reach the mid 20`s to lower 30`s
around daybreak tuesday.

cyclonic w`erly flow aloft, embedded shortwave troughs, and
associated surface troughing are expected to impact our region on
tuesday through tuesday night as high pressure at the surface and
aloft exits e`ward. another cold front should move e`ward across our
region on tuesday. limited low-level moisture should permit a dry
cold front passage. behind the cold front, light les showers are
possible tuesday night in the snowbelt of ne oh and nw pa as low-
level caa allows lake surface to 850 mb temp differences to rebound
to near 16c over lake erie and mean low-level flow veers from
wsw`erly to wnw`erly, yet low-level moisture remains meager. the low-
level atmospheric column may be warm enough for rain to mix with
snow tuesday evening, especially along and just inland from the
lake. any fresh snowfall should be one inch or less. fair weather is
forecast outside the lake-effect precip. daytime highs should reach
the lower to mid 40`s on tuesday and be followed by overnight lows
reaching mainly the mid to upper 20`s around daybreak wednesday.

a shortwave trough is forecast to move generally se`ward over our
cwa on wednesday as surface troughing lingers. high pressure ridging
at the surface and aloft should build from the northern/central
great plains and western great lakes wednesday night. primarily fair
weather is expected. however, light les showers are possible in/near
the snowbelt as mean low-level flow veers from wnw`erly toward
nnw`erly. the les should dissipate by daybreak thursday in response
to decreasing lake-induced cape amidst a lowering subsidence
inversion and low-level dry air advection accompanying the ridge.
any additional snowfall should be less than one inch. daytime highs
should reach the lower to mid 30`s in nw pa and the mid to upper
30`s in northern oh on wednesday. overnight lows should reach the
20`s around daybreak thursday morning.

&&

.long term /wednesday through saturday/...
fair weather is expected thursday through friday night as high
pressure at the surface and aloft crests gradually e`ward over our
region. net low-level waa accompanying the ridge should contribute
to afternoon highs reaching the upper 30`s to mid 40`s on thursday
and primarily the mid 40`s to near 50f on friday. overnight lows
should reach the mid 20`s to lower 30`s thursday night and the upper
20`s to mid 30`s friday night. a potent shortwave trough and
associated surface trough should begin to overspread our region from
the north-central u.s. this saturday. the nbm suggests fair weather
will continue this saturday and our official forecast reflects
latest nbm guidance. however, some models, including the 00z/sun
ecmwf, suggest isolated rain showers may occur via moist isentropic
ascent aloft preceding the shortwave trough`s axis. continued low-
level waa should contribute to daytime highs reaching the 40`s.

&&

.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
still a few showers near the oh/pa border in nw pa. dont think
they will persist past 15z. otherwise mvfr ceilings are
spreading into the region quickly from the west with lingering
mvfr across the east. expect all locations to become mvfr
during the morning hours.

an upper level trough moves across the region this evening into
the overnight with snow expected for the most part. there could
be some rain mixing in at the onset but it will quickly change
to snow. mvfr ceilings are a definite when the snow begins.
downwind of the lake across ne oh into nw pa ifr conditions will
occur with some lake enhanced snow.

winds will be from the west at 8 to 15 knots through the afternoon.
as a reinforcing surge of colder air crosses the region after sunset
winds shift to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots.

outlook...non-vfr expected overnight sunday with low ceilings
and snow showers. lake effect snow will produce non-vfr conditions
across ne oh and nw pa on monday.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm monday for nearshore
waters from vermilion to avon point and until 4 am tuesday from avon
point to ripley. also, the small craft advisory remains in effect
from 7 pm today to 1 pm est monday from the islands to vermilion.

a cold front over far-eastern lake erie early this morning continues
moving eastward and exits the rest of the lake by daybreak. behind
the front, a trough lingers over lake erie through monday morning.
southwesterly winds around 15 to 25 knots ahead of the front veer to
westerly and then eventually to northwesterly behind the front. the
strongest winds are expected east of the islands. waves as large as
4 to 7 feet are expected east of the islands with smaller waves
elsewhere due to shorter fetch. a ridge is expected to build from
the tn valley monday afternoon through monday night and cause
northwesterly winds around 15 to 25 knots to back to southwesterly.
in response, waves should subside to 4 feet or less within nearshore
waters and remain 4 to 7 feet in open u.s. waters, especially east
of the islands.

another cold front is still expected to drift eastward across lake
erie tuesday through tuesday night and cause southwesterly winds
around 15 to 25 knots to veer toward northwesterly. waves as large
as 4 to 9 feet are expected east of the islands with smaller waves
elsewhere. northwesterly winds around 10 to 20 knots are forecast to
back gradually to southwesterly on wednesday through thursday as a
ridge affects lake erie and the ridge`s core moves from the north-
central u.s. toward the mid oh valley. waves are forecast to subside
gradually to 5 feet or less.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est monday
for lez144.
small craft advisory until 7 pm est monday for lez145.
small craft advisory until 4 am est tuesday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...mm
near term...mm
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...mm
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
000
fxus63 kiwx 101133
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
633 am est sun dec 10 2023

.synopsis...
issued at 310 am est sun dec 10 2023

light lake effect snow...possibly mixed with rain at times...is
expected today and tonight. any accumulation will be less than an
inch and confined to areas north of highway 30. otherwise dry
weather is expected through much of this week along with seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 310 am est sun dec 10 2023

lake effect precip is the primary weather concern today (and the
only concern for most of the week). secondary cold front is
currently pushing through the region with veering low level winds
and steady caa anticipated today. 850mb temps are still expected to
drop to near -10c tonight while lake temps are still running around
6c. multiple, subtle vorticity maxima pass through the area today
embedded within mean trough that will exit by late tonight. the most
notable will pass early this afternoon. despite this deep cyclonic
flow and decent support for ascent...forecast soundings show
inversion heights struggling to even reach 5 kft. there is also a
lot of dry air entrainment in the boundary layer with upstream
surface dewpoints around 20f resulting in marginal 0-2km theta-e
lapse rates. 300-320 degree flow supports decent fetch off lake mi
but still limited and certainly not supportive of any organized
bands given moderate gradient winds and poor instability. expect a
cellular, disorganized presentation today.

precip types remain difficult. shallow inversion introduces ice
nucleation concerns and surface temps will be in the mid/upper 30s
today. suspect areas that manage to see precip will likely see snow
as the predominant type given wet bulb cooling but accumulation
efficiency will certainly be low and suspect warm/wet ground will
prevent any lasting accumulation during the day. colder temps arrive
tonight but inversion heights also continue to drop, particularly
after 06z when trough axis passes and subsidence builds. best
chances for accumulation will likely be late afternoon into the
evening with any stronger cells that manage to develop. any
accumulation will be less than an inch and unlikely to cause
significant impacts to the mon am commute.

&&

.long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 310 am est sun dec 10 2023

long term period remains extremely quiet as our region remains in
between cutoff low over the southwest conus and high-latitude
troughing over eastern canada. net result is persistent high
pressure over the ohio valley. after a brief and minor moderation in
temps on tue, a dry cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cooler
air wed. lows wed night drop near 20f under ideal radiational
cooling. temps then slowly climb through the end of the week as
mid/upper level ridge axis passes through the region. the next
chance of precip arrives over the weekend as western noam energy
finally ejects east. still a lot of uncertainty in how exactly this
evolves but latest 00z guidance suggests little (if any) precip as
our area remains largely split between active northern and southern
jet streams.

&&

.aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z monday morning)
issued at 633 am est sun dec 10 2023

main change with this update was to delay the arrival of lake
effect showers based on latest obs and hi-res guidance. caa and
associated lake response have been slow to ramp up given
increasingly diffuse cold front and only minor veering to low
level flow. still expect caa and lake effect precip to ramp up by
midday though and continue into the evening. snow is expected to
be the primary precip type though some rain may mix in as well and
any accumulation will quickly melt. les showers will remain sct
with only brief/minor impacts to the terminals. otherwise ceilings
will continue to hover around or just under 2 kft for much of the
day. kept ceilings just below but guidance has tended to be a
little too low and may need to raise ceilings slightly later this
morning.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

synopsis...agd
short term...agd
long term...agd
aviation...agd


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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
000
fxus63 kdtx 101030
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
530 am est sun dec 10 2023

.aviation...

low vfr/high mvfr clouds should remain in place through tomorrow
morning as cold west-northwest flow persists. although confidence
does diminish overnight into monday morning, and certaintly could
see some clearing.

a surface trough swinging through this afternoon will likely trigger
widely scattered snow/rain showers, trending straight snow by the
end of the day. a very brief interval of ifr vsby possible. little
in the way of accumulation expected with temperatures solidly above
freezing through mid evening. a slight chance of snow showers (~15
percent) persists overnight which could lead to a coating of snow.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings aob 5000 feet through this evening,
then medium-low.

* high for precip type being rain/melting snow today becoming
straight snow in evening and beyond.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 301 am est sun dec 10 2023

discussion...

an upper wave now churning over eastern wisconsin will dampen as it
lifts across northern lower mi this morning. secondary mid level
short wave energy trailing this initial wave will advance across se
mi late this afternoon/evening and will maintain broader mid level
troughing across the great lakes region through tonight. while there
is ongoing post frontal low level cold air advection this morning,
the rate of cooling in the boundary layer is being tempered by
increasing low level mixing/steepening lapse rates. this will result
in a slow drop in sfc temps into the mid/upper 30s today. growing
depth of cold air across the lakes will continue to activate the
lake effect today. the westerly flow will veer toward northwest
today, which will limit the extent of lake effect into se mi. the
wave lifting across the northern lakes this morning will drive a sfc
trough into se mi early this afternoon. convective cloud depths may
however struggle to activate ice nucleation, limiting precip
potential. cloud depths will increase late in the afternoon and
evening as the secondary short wave drives colder 850mb temps into
the area. this will increase chances for ice nucleation in the clouds
and suggests scattered/30 percent chance of showers within the
backdrop of mid level height falls. boundary layer temps and wet bulb
zero heights suggest precip type will be rain/melting snow this
afternoon and wet snow this evening, with the expected
coverage/intensity suggesting little to no impacts.

with the mid level trough passing east of the area on monday, mid
level confluence/subsidence will expand across lower mi. there is
likely to be ample lake clouds trapped under a deepening low level
inversion, with the clouds holding temps in the 30s. the low level
flow will back toward the southwest late monday/monday night,
driving a warmer and drier low level airmass into se mi which will
promote a clearing trend. despite this, nocturnal cooling will be
limited by the strengthening gradient.

an upper level low forecast to rotate from central canada into
northern ontario on tuesday will drive a cold front across the great
lakes. this front is forecast to weekend as moves south into the
more zonal flow across the southern lakes. lack of moisture depth
along this boundary suggest the main impacts will likely be an
increase in clouds and a slight cooling trend by mid week. expansive
high pressure will affect much of the eastern us by the end of the
week and will ensure a dry forecast to end the work week.

marine...

cold air advection is settling into the region with another cold
front expected to move through the region today. winds will turn out
of the northwest this afternoon with in the wake of the front, which
will also bring increasing waves and lake effect snow showers across
lake huron through today. wind gusts approach 30 knots and will
continue to maintain higher wave action across outer saginaw bay and
northern portions of the thumb. this will keep small craft
advisories in effect through today as waves build into across
central and southern lake huron. brief lull in stronger winds
expected monday with mainly 25 knots or below before another strong
low pressure system swings across northern ontario and hudson bay
late monday night into early tuesday. this system will send another
cold front through the region and another round of potential gales,
mainly across lake huron, with the southwest to west winds beginning
tuesday morning.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz421-441.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...sc
marine.......aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.