Lucas and Wood Counties
link
765
fxus61 kcle 131938
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
338 pm edt mon oct 13 2025
.synopsis...
a weak ridge extends from the canadian maritimes to our region
before a cold front drifts southeastward across northern ohio and
northwest pennsylvania on tuesday. behind the front, another ridge
builds from the united states/canada border area in the great plains
through this thursday. on friday through this saturday, the ridge
begins to exit eastward, which will allow a warm front to sweep
northward through our region on friday.
&&
.near term /through tuesday night/...
anticyclonic n`erly to nw`erly flow aloft resides over our region
through tuesday night as northern oh and nw pa remain located
along the northeastern flank of a mid/upper-level ridge centered
in vicinity of eastern tx. at the surface, a weak ridge
continues to extend from the canadian maritimes for the time
being. however, a cold front should begin to drift se`ward
across lake erie and our cwa early tuesday afternoon, near a
youngstown, ny to sandusky, oh to deshler, oh line by sunset
tuesday evening, and exit the rest of our cwa by daybreak
wednesday. behind the front, a ridge builds from the u.s./canada
border area in the great plains and eventually the northern
great lakes.
despite net low-level waa ahead of the cold front, intervals of
clear sky and weak surface winds will contribute to appreciable
radiational cooling very late this afternoon through shortly
after daybreak tuesday morning, when lows should reach mainly
the lower 40`s to lower 50`s in nw pa and the mid 40`s to mid
50`s in northern oh. sufficient low-level moisture amidst weak
surface winds and intervals of clear sky should permit areas of
radiation fog development after roughly midnight tonight and
through daybreak tuesday morning, roughly along and especially
west of i-71 in our cwa. as was the case this morning and
yesterday morning, the most-widespread and densest fog should
impact lucas county and vicinity. future forecast updates may
require the issuance of a localized dense fog advisory.
following the onset of diurnal convective mixing of the boundary
layer, fog is expected to dissipate by late tuesday morning.
daytime heating complemented by net low-level waa ahead of the
cold front will allow tuesday afternoon`s highs to reach the
60`s to near 70f in nw pa and the upper 60`s to mid 70`s in
northern oh. net caa behind the front, amidst a sufficiently-
moist nnw`erly to nne`erly mean low-level flow should allow
lake-effect stratocumuli to develop over ~19c lake erie
beginning tuesday evening and stream generally s`ward from the
lake. the presence of abundant low-level clouds should limit
nocturnal cooling and preclude radiation fog formation. lows
should reach mainly the lower 40`s to mid 50`s around daybreak
wednesday.
primarily fair weather is expected due to stabilizing subsidence
accompanying the aforementioned ridging and expectation of
fairly limited low-level moisture along the cold front. however,
850 mb temperatures cooling to near 6c over ~19c lake erie,
sufficient low-level moisture, and the formation of somewhat
greater, albeit weak, lake-induced instability may allow
isolated/very light lake-effect rain showers to impact nw pa
and far-ne oh after midnight wednesday morning.
&&
.short term /wednesday through thursday night/...
nw`erly flow aloft persists over our cwa during this time
period as the axis of the above-mentioned mid/upper-level ridge
moves from the central u.s. to near the western great lakes and
fl panhandle and the ridge amplifies. at the surface, the
above-mentioned ridge continues to impact our region as the
embedded high pressure center wobbles se`ward from the northern
great lakes toward central pa. primarily fair weather is
expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge.
however, a n`erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist
air over/downwind of lake erie and weak lake-induced instability
may allow isolated and very light lake-effect rain showers to
impact northern oh and nw pa wednesday morning.
the aforementioned weather pattern evolution at the surface and
aloft will allow net low-level caa to affect our region through
thursday before giving way to very weak, net low-level waa
thursday night. despite intervals of sunshine on wednesday and
abundant sunshine on thursday, late afternoon highs should reach
mainly the upper 50`s to mid 60`s on both days. during wednesday
and thursday nights, at least mainly clear sky, weak or calm
surface winds, and limited low-level moisture will permit
significant radiational cooling. accordingly, lows should reach
the lower to upper 30`s in interior portions of nw pa and
northern oh, while lows should reach mainly the 40`s elsewhere
in our cwa. frost advisories or even freeze warnings should
eventually be required for interior portions of our cwa.
&&
.long term /friday through monday/...
on friday through friday night, the ridge at the surface and
aloft begins to exit e`ward as a trough at the surface and aloft
begins to approach from the great plains. in addition, a
surface warm front should drift n`ward through northern oh and
nw pa and usher-in a warmer and somewhat more-moist air mass
originating over the southern gulf stream and gulf. fair weather
likely persists on friday, amidst stabilizing subsidence in our
region. late afternoon highs should reach the lower 60`s to
lower 70`s. isolated to scattered rain showers are possible
friday night, as isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of the
approaching trough axis aloft, moistens. overnight lows should
reach the 40`s to lower 50`s in nw pa and mainly the upper 40`s
to mid 50`s in northern oh.
on saturday through saturday night, cyclonic and mainly sw`erly
flow aloft is expected over our cwa as the trough axis aloft
continues to approach from the great plains and then the ms
valley. shortwave disturbances embedded in the flow aloft should
traverse our region. at the surface, a trough lingers over our
region as a cold front approaches from the west. periods of rain
showers are expected as weak instability, including elevated
cape, is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent ahead
of the shortwave trough axes and the main trough axis aloft;
low-level convergence/moist ascent along surface trough axes
accompanying the shortwave disturbances. a few thunderstorms are
possible saturday afternoon and early evening. peeks of sunshine
and continued net low-level warm/moist air advection should
allow late afternoon highs to reach the 70`s to lower 80`s on
saturday. abundant cloud cover and continued net low-level
warm/moist air advection should be accompanied by overnight
lows reaching only the 50`s to lower 60`s saturday night.
on sunday through sunday night, sw`erly cyclonic flow aloft
should eventually veer to nw`erly as the main trough axis aloft
sweeps e`ward through our region. cyclonic nw`erly flow aloft
should then persist over our region on monday. shortwave
disturbances will likely be embedded in the flow aloft. at the
surface, the attendant cold front should sweep generally e`ward
through our region on sunday and be followed by residual
troughing over/near the great lakes, including our cwa, through
this monday. the cold front will usher-in a much colder air
mass. daytime highs should reach the 60`s on sunday, before the
cold front passage, and the 50`s to lower 60`s on monday. in
between, overnight lows should reach mainly the 40`s sunday
night.
periods of rain showers are expected as what should be primarily
weak instability, including elevated instability, is released
by the following: moist isentropic ascent preceding the
shortwave trough axes and main trough axis aloft; low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the cold front and surface trough
axes accompanying the shortwave troughs. as the low/mid-level
tropospheric column cools and remains sufficiently-moist, rain
should become lake-enhanced over and generally southeast of
lake erie sunday night as at least weak lake-induced cape
develops. on monday, lake-enhanced rain should transition to
periods of pure lake-effect rain over and generally southeast of
lake erie as mid-level moisture plummets, overall, but the low-
level tropospheric column remains sufficiently-cold/moist and at
least weak lake-induced cape remains over the lake.
&&
.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
overall vfr conditions are expected for this taf update. skies
will be mostly clear and fair weather conditions. there may be
some light fog again again at tol, fdy, and mfd with tempo
groups for 3 sm to 5 sm between 09z and 12z. winds will remain
light less than 10 knots from the north and northeast.
outlook...low potential for patchy fog in northwest ohio on
tuesday morning. otherwise, vfr expected before periods of rain
showers with non-vfr arrive friday night and especially this
saturday.
&&
.marine...
overall, marine weather conditions will be fairly quiet this week.
high pressure pressure is in control of the weather pattern. for the
rest of this afternoon and tonight, northeast winds of 5 to 15 knots
are expected and waves 1 to 3 feet. a weak cold front will slide
across lake erie on tuesday. winds will be from the northeast 10 to
15 knots and waves of 1 to 3 feet on tuesday. there will be a slight
uptick in winds and waves tuesday night with northeast winds 10 to
20 knots and waves 2 to 5 feet possible. a small craft advisory may
be needed tuesday night for the central and eastern nearshore water.
winds will relax from the north and northeast wednesday and thursday
5 to 15 knots and waves of 1 to 3 feet. by friday, winds will shift
around from the south 5 to 15 knots and waves of 1 to 2 feet.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...jaszka
near term...jaszka
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...77
marine...77
Monroe and Lenawee Counties
link
039
fxus63 kdtx 132220
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
620 pm edt mon oct 13 2025
.key messages...
- a dry cold front moves through the area tuesday leading to cooler
temperatures wednesday.
- there is also an increasing probability of rain wednesday morning,
currently at about 30 percent.
- dry weather and normal mid october temperatures resume during the
late week.
&&
.aviation...
a cold front on pace to sag across the region tonight. moisture
remains limited with this frontal passage, leaving simply some
pockets of higher based vfr cloud at times. assuming a greater
window of open sky exists within a weakening gradient, this will
again bring potential for some areas of fog and/or very low stratus
during the pre-dawn hours. less favorable conditions than recent
nights as low level flow no longer carries an added boost off the
lakes, so confidence in occurrence at any one location remains quite
low. forecast will continue to highlight a window between 09z and
13z for some reduction of visibility. rapid improvement in
visibility thereafter, leaving a standard expansion of vfr diurnal
cu for tuesday afternoon.
for dtw/d21 convection...no thunderstorms through the taf period.
dtw threshold probabilities...
* low for visibilities aob 1/2 sm or ceilings aob 200 ft early
tuesday morning.
* low for cigs at or below 5000 ft tuesday.
&&
.prev discussion...
issued at 334 pm edt mon oct 13 2025
discussion...
healthy diurnal cumulus field observed via visible satellite this
afternoon. localized clear pockets reflect where widespread fog/low
stratus lingered this morning and disrupted the mixing process.
these areas are running a few degrees cooler than surrounding obs,
but still result in a pleasant fall evening with temperatures in the
upper 60s-low 70s.
satellite also shows a continuous cloud band from northern ontario
to texas, marking the frontal zone that extends from the occluded
hudson bay low. this front has made little eastward progress today,
but will eventually get redirected equatorward across lower michigan
tonight/tuesday as a surface high expands across the northern tier
states. radar returns have decreased throughout the day with the
influx of a dry slot aloft and bifurcation of low level moisture
transport. this is on par with model trends, which support a dry
fropa tuesday. remnant cloud cover is expected to accompany the
frontal passage, but should be transient/shallow enough to allow for
some patchy fog development tuesday morning. cold advection will not
peak until wednesday, but still expect to see a thermal gradient
from the saginaw valley (highs in the upper 60s) to the ohio border
(highs in the mid 70s).
conditions will be strongly influenced by the evolution of the upper
level ridge as the week wears on. the ridge will transition from its
current broad/flattened state into an amplified trough-ridge pair by
the end of the work week as northern stream waves carve into new
england. locally, this results in mid-level height falls and a
southern shift to the jet stream that directs weak forcing across
the great lakes wednesday morning. moisture struggles to stay in
tact as it encounters the much drier surface high over the great
lakes. this high effectively stalls theta-e advection well west of
the state to limit qpf locally to a few hundredths of an inch
wednesday morning. the thermal gradient follows a similar pivoting
pattern, with se mi in the path of the thermal trough. temperatures
on wednesday only make it into the low 60s as a result.
dry weather follows to close out the work week, followed by an
unsettled pattern this weekend as the upstream theta-e ridge
releases eastward in tandem with strong low pressure. majority of
ensemble members generate measurable 24-hour qpf amounts friday-this
weekend with a general warming trend anticipated.
marine...
mostly dry cold front tracking through the central great lakes this
evening. northwest winds will gradually increase tonight and tuesday
behind the front as colder air slowly filters into the region. the
coldest air will arrive early wednesday morning, as 850 mb temps
drop into the low to mid single numbers. winds will be out of the
northeast at this time as large high pressure builds through the
northern great lakes. with northerly sustained winds around 20 knots
tuesday night, the prolonged long fetch will likely be enough to
build waves at or above 4 feet over the southern lake huron basin.
winds to then become light and variable to end the work week as the
high pressure system becomes fully entrenched.
&&
.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory from 5 pm tuesday to 5 pm edt wednesday for
lhz421-441>443.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&
$$
aviation.....mr
discussion...mv
marine.......sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.