Lucas and Wood Counties
fxus61 kcle 221037
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
637 am edt thu mar 22 2018
a ridge of high pressure will persist over the local area
through saturday. low pressure will move southeast across
southern illinois into the tennessee valley by saturday evening.
another ridge will build southeast into the local area late
saturday night into sunday and then move to the east coast by
.near term /through friday/...
some clearing is trying to push into the western portions of the
forecast area at this time. the clearing edge will push slowly
east this morning. made some timing changes of the advancement
of the back edge of clouds in western ohio. otherwise, no other
major changes with this update.
amplification of an upper level ridge will take place over the
rockies and cause the upper level trough to deepen over the
eastern seaboard through this forecast period. a large area of
high pressure over the hudson bay will extend a ridge south
across the great lakes region into the forecast area. this
feature will push some arctic air into the forecast area by
friday morning. generally speaking, fair weather will be the
rule across the forecast area over the next 36 hours. there is a
chance if the flow becomes well aligned for some lake effect
snow showers late tonight into friday morning in erie county
pennsylvania. instability over the lake is only conditional and
there is some shear to overcome. some low level moisture moves
into the area by friday morning so the chance to slight chance
the cold pool of arctic air will spill into the eastern half of
the forecast area later today into friday. temperatures will
rise into the lower 40s in the west and only lower to middle 30s
in the east for highs today. with clearing for the most part
across the forecast area tonight, temperatures will fall into
the 20s for lows as radiational cooling takes place. highs on
friday similar to today but slightly cooler in the extreme east
with cold pool overhead.
.short term /friday night through sunday night/...
the short term period will be mainly quiet. a high pressure ridge
will dominate the weather most of friday night. winds will be light
tomorrow night and any areas with snow pack will see chilly temps
for this time of year. teens appear likely over the east end of the
area. clouds will be on the increase in the west and that will hold
temps up a little. the new guidance coming in shows the precip
shield from the next system staying just south and southwest of the
local area. the precip could get close to the southern tip of the
area on saturday. just not comfortable removing the small chance
mention already in the forecast even with the dry easterly flow
expected. by saturday evening we will be back in the clear and quiet
weather is then expected for the remainder of the weekend as strong
high pressure remains to the north.
.long term /monday through wednesday/...
the long anticipated warm up will finally get going during the long
term period. the winds will take on a southerly component on monday
as the surface ridge pulls off to the east and low pressure develops
over the plains. a warm front from the low will eventually work its
way north across the area monday night. precip chances will
increase as that occurs. initially the precip threat will be
confined to the west end of the area but all areas will see a good
chance for rain by tuesday evening. precip chances will persist
tuesday night into wednesday as the plains low finally passes to the
north of lake erie. a cold front trailing the low will be slow to
clear the area on wednesday resulting in the lingering precip
threat...especially in the south. temps should make it into the
upper 40s on monday and the lower 50s most areas tuesday and
wednesday. highs wednesday may occur early in the day.
.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
vfr conditions are expected through this forecast period.
mainly high clouds will persist but expecting clearing to push
from west to east today. erie will be the exception late tonight
into tomorrow morning as there is an outside chance that a few
snow showers could occur mainly south of the terminal. winds
will be around 10 knots through much of the forecast period.
winds have continued to diminish overnight and many places now under
10 knots. the few spots that remain up are places like fairport
harbor where the wind equipment is 70 feet plus above the surface.
will go ahead and let the small craft end as scheduled. winds will
become northwest today before becoming mainly light and variable
tonight. the flow will start to switch the east late friday with
easterly flow then expected most of the weekend. speeds will
gradually increase over the weekend as low pressure passes well
south of the lake. may need more small craft headlines at some
point. the flow will become southeasterly monday in response to
another low developing over the plains.
Fulton and Henry Counties
fxus63 kiwx 221034
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
634 am edt thu mar 22 2018
issued at 634 am edt thu mar 22 2018
cool and dry northerly flow is expected through the rest of the
week. lows will generally be in the 20s with highs in the 40s. a
storm system will likely bring several inches of wet snow to areas
mainly south of us 24 and west of interstate 69 in indiana later
friday night into saturday. drier air then returns sunday into
monday, with temperatures warming from the mid 30s to low 40s
saturday to near 50 degrees by monday. rain chances increase along
with warmer temperatures for tuesday and wednesday.
.short term...(today through friday)
issued at 445 am edt thu mar 22 2018
quiet and dry weather in the short term before a more active and wet
pattern develops in the long term period. elongated surface high
pressure will stretch across the great lakes into the ohio valley
today through friday providing mainly clear, dry and cool
conditions. highs today will reach the 40s most areas while lows
tonight once again drop back into the 20s with good radiational
cooling. not much change on friday with high pressure beginning to
slide east as next wave approaches. highs should reach the mid to
.long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 445 am edt thu mar 22 2018
two systems of concern in the long term with heavy wet snow possible
late friday night into saturday. second system middle of next week
could bring locally heavy rainfall back to the region along with
pacific wave currently bringing deep moisture and heavy rainfall to
ca today will cross the rockies and induce lee side cyclogenesis on
friday. building warmth across the southern plains will be drawn
northward leading to a tightening baroclinic zone and development of
a strong warm front ahead of developing surface low. strong system
relative isentropic lift and moisture advection expected to develop
a large area of pcpn along and north of warm front friday night into
saturday. this boundary will likely reach into central indiana as
the sfc low moves east to western il before diving southeast and
weakening on saturday. this southeast shift being steered by
stubborn high pressure that remains parked over the cold great lakes
with a stout dry low level easterly flow over most of our area.
pcpn associated with warm front should reach far southern counties
late friday night before encountering drier air. this should provide
another sharp gradient and cutoff to pcpn which is problematic for
snowfall forecast and amounts. models typically throw too much qpf
into the cold and dry sector so expect a much sharper gradient to
pops and qpf than currently forecast. however, difficult to
ascertain where this boundary will actually setup given minor model
differences so must respect this uncertainty with lower pops.
combination of blend and wpc suggest our far southern row of
counties will see the heaviest pcpn, which should fall mainly as
snow given strong dynamical and evaporative cooling processes. qpf
amounts rather impressive with a half to just over three quarters of
an inch progged by blends and wpc in our far south to southwest.
another difficulty will be accessing impacts from potential snowfall
amounts of 3 to as much as 7 inches on the high side given warm late
march sun angle and sfc temps saturday rising above freezing. roads
should be more of a wet slush with snow liquid ratios around 10:1
fri night and closer to 8:1 later saturday morning and afternoon
before pcpn ends. thinking this will mainly be an advisory event for
our area with high compaction and low impacts but consensus among
neighbors was to go with a watch given upside potential, especially
in our extreme south and points just south of our area.
second system of concern will be mon night-wed time frame. closed
upper low looks to develop over the southwest conus with deep
pacific moisture feed likely ahead of it spreading into the midwest
and great lakes region. surface front will become parallel to upper
flow from southwest to northeast and models showing several waves
along boundary with some heavy rainfall potential. still a lot of
uncertainty on where the sfc front will actually set up and timing
of the waves. however, medium range models all point to potential
heavy rainfall event somewhere across the midwest or ohio valley and
this will need to be watched closely in this favored waning but
still active la nina pattern. this should also finally provide some
early spring warmth to the region with temperatures trending near
and above normal next week.
.aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z friday morning)
issued at 634 am edt thu mar 22 2018
vfr conditions are expected at both kfwa/ksbn through the taf
in...winter storm watch from late friday night through saturday
afternoon for inz013-020-022-023-032>034.
lm...small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for lmz043-046.
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Monroe and Lenawee Counties
fxus63 kdtx 221055
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
655 am edt thu mar 22 2018
high pressure building into the western great lakes today will help
produce vfr clear conditions across the region. wind conditions will
be improved compared to recent days but will pick up from the
northwest during the morning as surface heating is established.
speed is expected to remain below 15 knots through the afternoon. an
early evening wind shift back toward the north will consist of a
hybrid lake breeze release/backdoor cold front working inland and
south toward midnight. there are model indications that some lake
enhanced stratocu will be possible with the wind shift and potential
for increased coverage overnight through friday morning.
/dtw threshold probabilities...
issued at 340 am edt thu mar 22 2018
current stretch of cool and dry conditions will continue through the
weekend as strong surface high remains anchored north of lake
superior. the high will hold over ontario through friday before
likely strengthening this weekend while drifting eastward over
quebec. this will keep the deep cold advective northeasterly flow
persisting through about sunday. resultant temperatures will
continue to come in around 5 to 10 degrees below normal through this
though high pressure continues to dominate at the surface, a compact
mid level vort max will dive through the eastern lakes tonight along
with a week cold front. should amount to little more than an period
of clouds tonight into friday morning with winds veering slightly
more northeasterly from north. expect a decent temperature gradient
sw to ne due to the onshore ne flow keeping the thumb in the mid 30s
once again with locations inland getting into the low/mid 40s due to
more sun and less of a lake influence. this pattern hold true again
on friday although the amplified longwave ridge will slide ever
closer to the western lakes. this will lead to a slight increase in
heights aloft which may just be offset by the pulse of cooler air
behind the front.
the next low pressure system is still on track to dive south of mi
on saturday keeping southern lower mi dry, but with some mid/high
clouds lifting into the area. the upper ridge continues to try to
build over mi but will run up against a strong trough digging into
the eastern lakes stalling its progress eastward. this thermal
trough will linger through sunday keeping the cool air in place
through the weekend.
the ridge axis aloft finally crosses lower mi on monday allowing
southerly flow and warm air advection to return to the region.
temperatures will be near 50 degrees monday trough midweek. the next
chances of precipitation will be tuesday into wednesday as a trough
sweeps across mi. a wave is forecast to eject out of the base of the
deepening trough over the western conus and lift up along the front
aiding in development of precipitation. best chance of rain will be
12z tuesday through about 18z wednesday. looks like mainly a rain
event as temperatures locally will be fairly warm with the southern
origins of the system itself resulting in a warm column.
cold north to northwest wind will be just strong enough to keep
waves elevated over southern lake huron today and small craft
advisories remain in effect for all nearshore zones south of port
austin. a backdoor cold front will then move through the region
tonight. dry conditions are expected with the front but it will be
able to reinforce cold air and northerly flow tonight through friday
morning. the resulting higher waves will mainly affect the port
austin to port sanilac nearshore zones before diminishing later
friday morning. however, the diminishing trend will be short-lived
as northeast flow is expected to strengthen friday night due to
building high pressure over northern ontario and as the next low
pressure system moves into the ohio valley saturday. the renewed
northeast wind will likely require small craft advisories for all
lake huron and lower michigan marine areas into sunday.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt friday for lhz441-442.
small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz443.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
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The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.