Lucas and Wood Counties
fxus61 kcle 192013
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
313 pm est wed feb 19 2020
high pressure over the northern plains will build southeast across
the mid-mississippi and ohio valleys on thursday, then continuing to
the southeastern and mid-atlantic states on saturday and sunday. low
pressure may impact the area on sunday night and monday.
.near term /through thursday night/...
a rare cloudless sky (aside from a few stray lake effect clouds)
will ensue this afternoon and into early tonight as surface high
pressure coupled with zonal flow aloft persists through through this
time period. an upper-level trough currently over the northern
plains dives southeast across the great lakes region tonight briefly
bringing back cloud cover tonight and some light scattered lake
effect snow showers tonight through tomorrow afternoon. lake effect
snow showers will be made possible by synoptic lift from the upper-
level trough and cold airmass but will be light/scattered in nature
due to a very dry airmass, short fetch and minimal to no lake huron
connection. coverage of lake effect snow showers expected to be
limited to northwest pennsylvania. by late tomorrow afternoon,
steadily decreasing cloud cover expected as the upper-level trough
axis passes overhead and surface high pressure continues to build in.
the cooling temperature trend from this afternoon will continue
through the entire near term period. developing clouds tonight will
keep cold air advection from decreasing temperatures too much
tonight, with low temperatures in the upper teens to near 20. cloud
cover early tomorrow and continued cold air advection with north to
northwest flow will also prevent temperatures from increasing much
tomorrow with high temperatures in the mid 20s. by tomorrow night,
high pressure will be firmly over the area, resulting in mostly
clear skies and light winds, allowing radiational cooling to bring
temperatures down into the low teens with some areas maybe even
touching the single digits.
.short term /friday through saturday night/...
the short term begins friday with high pressure extending through
the ohio valley from the central plains. this dominant high will be
in control of our weather friday into sunday. expect clear to
partly cloudy skies and a slow warming trend. highs will start the
period in the low to mid 30s friday and then recover into the 40s
saturday and sunday.
.long term /sunday through wednesday/...
the long term begins to get interesting with both the gfs and ecmwf
showing low pressure in the central plains sunday night. both
models move the low northeast out of the plains monday with the
ecmwf bringing the low into nrn oh by 12z tuesday. the gfs track is
further west across chicago. either way, moisture will begin moving
into the region sunday night ahead of the low. temperatures aloft,
at this point, favor rain as the dominant precipitation type sunday
night through monday although this obviously with be determined by
the track of the low which will likely shift on subsequent runs. for
now will also include a chance of snow with the rain for sunday
night into monday morning. monday as the low approaches glfmx
moisture will get pulled into the ohio valley with decent isentropic
lift in place across the region. expect widespread rain and will
have likely pops across much of the area. monday night, colder air
will wrap into the region behind the low turning any lingering
precip to all snow. tuesday the gfs shows a dry slot across the area
while the ecmwf will shift the focus of the system further to our
northeast. will continue with chance pops for a mix of rain or
snow. another system moves in mid week that could bring more
snow than rain. highs monday through wednesday in the lower 40s.
.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
some residual lake effect clouds providing brief mvfr conditions
at keri right now, which should give way to mostly clear skies
this afternoon. all taf sites will have vfr conditions tonight.
upper level trough moves across the area late tonight and
tomorrow, producing more clouds, especially downstream lake
erie. mvfr ceilings are likely at all taf sites tomorrow morning
except at ktol and kfdy where only mid-level clouds are
expected. very light lake effect snow may be around keri as
well. northwest flow around 10 knots this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon with lighter conditions expected for tonight and
.outlook...non-vfr possible with rain/snow sunday night and all
rain on monday.
will drop the headlines as expected as winds and waves diminish.
tonight through the weekend high pressure will be in control of the
weather across the lake. on balance, winds will remain 15 knots or
less tonight through thursday night. the only concern will be
increasing southwest winds to 15 to 20 knots or so friday through
friday night as high pressure drop south of the lake allowing the
pressure gradient to increase on the water. this may require
another small craft headline as waves increase to 4 to 6 feet. if
winds end up being more ssw however, higher waves will be confined
to the offshore waters. sunday, winds back 20 to 30 degrees and
diminish to 10 to 15 knots allowing waves to subside to below 4 feet
in the nearshore waters. monday look for light southerly flow as low
pressure approaches from the southwest.
Fulton and Henry Counties
fxus63 kiwx 191947
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
247 pm est wed feb 19 2020
issued at 246 pm est wed feb 19 2020
high pressure will promote quiet conditions for the next several
days. there is a slight chance for lake effect snow showers late
tonight into thursday morning for locations near lake michigan.
morning lows will bottom out in the teens thursday and friday
morning before milder air returns on saturday.
.short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 246 pm est wed feb 19 2020
focus (albeit limited) will be on weak h5/h7 disturbance set to
slide through the area overnight will bring an increase in clouds,
brief shot of colder air and maybe some lake effect
flurries/light snow showers.
with regards to lake effect...delta t`s are favorable in the mid
teens and inversion heights creeping into the 5-6kft range at the
peak of the "event". however, worried about amount of dry air in
lower levels, positive low level lapse rates and marginal omega
intruding into dgz. all this points towards maintaining slgt chc to
chc pops late tonight into early thursday with little/no
accumulation expected. cloud cover should be rather prevalent and
extend well inland with a tight gradient between cloudy and
essentially clear skies into thursday morning before further dry air
entrainment and decreasing inversion heights/delta t`s bring an end
as for temperatures, lows will drop into the teens with not a lot of
diurnal swing expected thursday as highs struggle into the mid 20s.
.long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 246 pm est wed feb 19 2020
a more tranquil pattern will setup for a few days as high
pressure builds across the region with increasing heights aloft.
while temps will start out below normal friday in the 30s, they
will quickly climb back to above normal into the 40s for the
weekend (50 sunday??).
the warmer temperatures will come with a bit of a sacrifice wrt
precip chances returning by sunday night with models generally in
agreement on rain/snow mix depending on exact temp profile and sfc
temps. snow will tend to favor overnight period and possibly far nw
areas vs rain se and during the day. left mix in through end of the
period with several weaker disturbances moving through in the wake
of this system. temps should still remain near or above normal.
.aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z thursday afternoon)
issued at 1153 am est wed feb 19 2020
light northwest winds and vfr/dry conditions will persist this
afternoon into this evening. a moisture starved shortwave will
bring an increase in mid level clouds tonight, with secondary cold
advection surge to follow later tonight into thursday with high
mvfr to low vfr lake clouds. a few lake effect flurries or light
snow showers cannot be ruled out thursday morning at mainly ksbn,
though chances remain too low for a mention in the tafs.
lm...small craft advisory until 10 am est thursday for lmz043-046.
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Monroe and Lenawee Counties
fxus63 kdtx 192016
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
316 pm est wed feb 19 2020
a strong 1044 mb arctic high pressure system will gradually drift
southeastward from the northern plains into the tennessee valley by
the end of the week and will deliver an extended period of quiet
weather for se mi through the weekend. diving into specifics,
anticyclonic flow from the advancing system will help push an arctic
front across se mi tonight from 23z to 03z which will aid in
supporting cold overnight temperatures in the upper single digits to
teens, but will not support any snow chances given extemely limited
forcing coupled with the resident dry air in place. associated wind
chills will dip towards 0 degrees overnight. axis of a positively
tilted thermal trough with h850 temperatures averaging -19c will then
orient across the great lakes by thursday afternoon and will support
the coldest daytime temperatures of the week with highs capped in
the 20s. should still manage to see extended periods of sunshine
throughout the day as very dry air filters in behind the arctic front
while pressure averaging 1038 mb builds in across se mi. pw values
will dip below .10 inches on thursday which will put it close to the
minimum moving average according to spc climatology for dtx. expect a
second round of wind chills near 0 degrees early friday morning as
radiational cooling is maximized with minimal cloud cover.
return flow from the southeastward advancement of high pressure will
allow temperatures to return to average values by friday afternoon
and will support highs in the 40s for both saturday and sunday.
return flow will also draw a secondary ribbon of dry air located
across mo/in northeast into michigan friday through early saturday,
which will continue to support sunshine, producing a pleasant end to
the week coupled with the milder temperatures.
next potential weather maker will stem from a wave set to travel
east across southern california into the rockies saturday through
sunday. lee cyclogenesis will spin up a low pressure system across
ok/ks late sunday night where it will advance towards the northeast
during the start of the week. large deviations exist regarding exact
track of the low after its initial spin up, specifically the
southwest-northeast positioning of the low across the midwest.
locations across the southern cwa will have higher odds of seeing
precipitation while locations across the tri-cities to thumb will
have lower odds, focused on monday through tuesday, which are
reflected in the updated pops. low confidence for ptypes at this
time until additional convergence is observed across long range
high pressure over the dakotas will continue to drop south-southeast
across the plains tonight into this weekend. the central great lakes
region will remain on the eastern and northern edges of the high as
it slides across the central part of the country. winds will slowly
rotate from northwesterly tonight to southwesterly by friday. a
stronger gradient will develop as a low pivots through hudson bay
generating strong winds friday afternoon/evening with favorable
850mb low level jet dynamics allowing for 30-35 knot surface gusts
during the evening/overnight period. winds will begin to relax some
as the weekend progresses.
issued at 1244 pm est wed feb 19 2020
increasing upper level confluence over the mid-upper mississippi
river valley is leading to strong surface ridge expansion into lower
michigan today. the surface ridging will only expand throughout the
taf period. notable signal for surface boundary layer mixing and
surface winds have mixed down to 12 knots or less for all areas.
maturation of pbl after 20z will result in few boundary layer
cumulus with better lake moisture confined to areas generally north
of the forecast area. the canopy of stratocumulus will likely expand
southward and may impact kmbs,kfnt with broken cigs for a time this
evening. shortwave energy passing eastward may interact with a
baroclinic zone and result in high cloud tonight. issue with this is
that the front is forecasted to be largely frontolytic. winds
tonight will remain light 5 knots or less, west or northwesterly as
surface based inversion develops.
dtw threshold probabilities...
* low for ceiling 5000 ft or late afternoon/evening.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
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The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.