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Lucas and Wood Counties

link
000
fxus61 kcle 100220
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1020 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

.synopsis...
a cold front over the midwest will continue east into the great
lakes region for friday. the front will slow over the area on
friday night and a weak disturbance will ripple through the
front on saturday. a secondary cold front will push through on
sunday. high pressure will attempt to build in from the
southwest for the beginning of next week.

&&

.near term /through friday night/...
thunderstorms have mostly diminished across the area with the
only activity now residing across the inland areas of nw pa.
this activity is expected to decrease in intensity and coverage
over the next couple of hours. will have to continue to monitor
some areas for minor flooding potential with storm total
precipitation estimates of around 3 to 4 inches over the past
couple of hours, especially just east of cambridge springs, pa.
have also added mention in the hwo for some strong to severe
storms in nw oh tomorrow (friday) afternoon.

previous discussion...
some isolated showers and thunderstorms are present over the
area this afternoon. expect that coverage will increase over the
next couple of hours as the atmosphere hits its peak in heating
and a lake breeze advances southward, allowing for some
additional lift to initiate convection. while iso/sct showers
and storms are expected, the best coverage will be in ne oh/nw
pa where the lake breeze is strongest and where there is a touch
better moisture. much of the convective activity will diminish
tonight with the loss of daytime heating. however, some
additional isolated activity is possible overnight in nw oh as
resultant boundaries/convection may allow for convection to
persist, as the cold front approaches from the west for friday.
overnight lows should remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s as
some cloud cover should help keep things warm.

friday will be the first day with more widespread rainfall
across the area as a cold front approaches from the west. with a
very warm air mass over the region ahead of the front, expecting
more showers and thunderstorms to develop over the region. these
will be mostly driven by the instability, as the upper level
flow is fairly weak with the shortwave. there will certainly be
a conditional severe weather threat as there has been the last
several days with the ample instability over the region, which
would be supportive of downbursts. high water content in the
atmosphere with pw values approaching 2" would allow for heavy
rainfall with any storms and a local flood threat is also
possible. the front should be focused for the eastern part of
the area on friday night where a higher rain threat will remain.

&&

.short term /saturday through sunday night/...
upper level trough will rotate into the eastern united states by
sunday and then become split with a slightly building ridge over the
local area sunday night. a weak cold front will move through the
area late friday night into saturday morning along with the upper
level trough. moisture associated with both features will push east
into the area friday night into saturday. as the front and upper
level trough move east saturday, threat for showers and
thunderstorms will diminish from west to east. a reinforcing cold
front will slide south toward the area sunday with some limited
residual moisture in place and with day time heating, could see a
shower or thunderstorm develop by the afternoon sunday and continue
into sunday night. temperatures during this period will be in the
coolest during this two week stretch with highs in the lower to
middle 80s in the east and central and upper 80s west saturday and
lower to middle 80s sunday. lows will be in the middle to upper 60s
saturday night and lower to middle 60s sunday night.

&&

.long term /monday through thursday/...
amplification of an upper level ridge will take place over the
middle mississippi valley region by mid-week and will shift east
over the local area. this will be the precursor to the development
of the next heat wave. long term outlooks are already indicating
potential for excessive heat by mid-week next week. models are
suggesting an extensive southwest flow into the local area from the
deep south that will force increasing 1000 to 500 mb thickness
values to around 580 by wednesday. this will reflect to the surface
as a potential stretch of several 90+ degree days. upper level
ridging and surface high pressure ridge extending southwest from
maine into the area will dominate the local area through the middle
and latter part of the week. dry weather is expected for the most
part except some residual thunderstorm threat monday and then again
possibly by thursday as waves of low pressure move northeast along a
stationary frontal boundary. expecting temperatures to be in the
upper 70s east to lower to middle 80s west monday, lower 80s east to
upper 80s west tuesday, upper 80s east and mid 90s west wednesday,
and lower to middle 90s thursday. lows through the period will be in
the 60s except 70s by wednesday night.

&&

.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
vfr conditions across the taf sites this evening with much of
the thunderstorm activity currently ongoing expected to remain outside
the vicinity of the taf sites. only exception might be at
eri/mfd over the next several hours with a small cluster of
thunderstorms located in northern richland county and a small
cluster of thunderstorms located along the pa/ny border in nw
pa. otherwise, expecting vfr conditions overnight.

expecting much more widespread thunderstorms associated with a
cold front tomorrow. showers and thunderstorms are expected to
move west to east across the area, with the earliest impacts at
tol/fdy by the mid to late morning hours. elsewhere, impacts
will begin to be felt in the early afternoon hours and last
through the late afternoon into the early evening hours. main
impacts would be mvfr/ifr visbys in heavy rain with frequent
lightning and gusty winds up to 30 knots possible.

outlook...non-vfr ceilings possible in lower ceilings friday
night into saturday morning. non-vfr could linger across
portions of ne oh and nw pa through saturday.

&&

.marine...
winds will be quite variable and uneventful through much of the
forecast period with winds 10 knots or less. the exception will be
friday night when winds increase from the northwest around 15 knots
behind a cold front. this will likely warrant the issuance of a
small craft advisory that will linger into saturday morning.
otherwise, winds diminish fairly quickly saturday and go light and
variable once again.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...sefcovic
near term...kahn/sefcovic
short term...lombardy
long term...lombardy
aviation...kahn
marine...lombardy

Fulton and Henry Counties

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000
fxus63 kiwx 100017
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
817 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

.synopsis...
issued at 810 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

isolated showers and thunderstorms east of interstate 69 will
diminish this evening. chances of showers and thunderstorms will
then increase overnight from west to east as the next system
approaches. these higher rain chances will persist into friday. a
few of the storms may produce some brief heavy rainfall and gusty
winds overnight tonight, especially across northwest indiana into
far southwest lower michigan. highs tomorrow into the upcoming
weekend will reach the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.update...
issued at 810 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

some minor tweaks to current forecast to account for observational
trends. scattered showers and thunderstorms were able to develop
this afternoon, especially east of the interstate 69 corridor
where slightly richer low level moisture allowed for initiation. a
few reports of wind damage with these storms, particularly across
northwest ohio. these storms should be on a downward trend next
few hours with loss of max diurnal instability. back to the west,
better convective coverage has been limited to north central
illinois along pre-frontal convergence zone. these showers/storms
should largely miss the local area, with next higher chance of
showers and thunderstorms holding off locally until late tonight
as pooled frontal moisture axis moves in from the west. some
modest increase in deep layer shear with approaching upper trough
should allow remnants of northwest illinois/southern wisconsin
convective system to make into the area after 06z, with still some
question onto extent of organization. pooled moisture axis should
provide enough elevated instability for scattered thunderstorms
however, with outflow boundaries likely triggering additional
development overnight. some heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be
possible, but it still appears as though severe threat will be
quite marginal. while cannot rule out isolated severe gust
overnight west of i-69, generally expecting sub-severe wind gusts
given marginal nature to shear/instability combination across the
area.

&&

.short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 304 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

convection has been a little slow to develop over the area today
mostly due to a lack of upper forcing and lowers dewpoints. recent
regional radar and satellite imagery has shown a few storms try to
initiate, but think we are still an hour or two before storms
really start to develop across the area. this initial round of
storms should be similar to previous day storms due to weak shear
and strong instability. a strong to severe storm can`t be ruled
out with damaging wind gusts in the form of downburst as well as
torrential rainfall bring the primary hazards.

late this evening and into the overnight hours models continue to
show the mcs over e ia/nw il progressing eastwards in response to
the closed upper low over western ia. models show this mcs reaching
our western zones between 02z and 04z which is not the best timing
for severe weather to occur. with that being said, enough low level
moisture and residual heating should result in mlcape around 1500
initially before dropping to around 1000 j/kg towards 06z. deep
shear also won`t be terrible, but still holds around 20kt.
considering these factors agree with the marginal area in the spc
day 1 outlook (generally west of hwy 31) as damaging wind gusts
would be possible across the western zones as this decaying mcs
moves in. further east, the environment will be less favorable
for storm organization and thus chances for severe weather are
low, but a rogue gust can`t be ruled out. could see a lull in
convective activity overnight as low level stability increases,
but can`t be ruled out given the upper forcing from the
approaching low.

upper low slowly moves across central lake michigan and into lower
michigan over the course of the day friday. this will help to re-
initiate convection throughout the morning and midday hours, but
should see the greatest develop occur during the afternoon. this
will correspond with a reinforcing cold/cool front catching up to
the low. this should happen around the time as storms are moving
across far ne in/nw oh/se lower mi. wouldn`t be surprised to see a
strong to marginally storm at this point if we can get a few
breaks in the cloud cover earlier in the day. the nam is the most
aggressive with this possibility and spreads mlcape around 2000
j/kg over the far eastern zones. regardless, storms should
continue to march eastward with time.

&&

.long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 304 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

models still differ with respect to end time of storms friday night
into saturday. went with a middle of the road solution which clears
storms out of the area after 06z saturday. this should lead to a
mostly dry saturday with nw flow aloft. an embedded low within nw
flow aloft, could spark a few storms saturday night, but better
confidence is storms spreading across the area over the course of
the day sunday. at this point, severe weather is not anticipated.
there is the possibility of a lingering storm at the start of the
day on monday before the pattern turns warmer and drier through the
middle of next week as the southwestern us ridge builds back
towards the area.

&&

.aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z friday evening)
issued at 810 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

in the very near term, main isolated shower/storm threat should
remain across northwest ohio and back west across north central
illinois where richer low level moisture resides. shower/storm
potential will increase overnight as a stronger upper level trough
approaches from the west allowing pooled low level moisture axis
associated with cold frontal boundary to push into northern
indiana. this moisture axis and eastward advancement of upstream
convection should allow for at least scattered thunderstorms to
move into northwest indiana and have indicated tempo tsra at ksbn
in the 06z-10z period. current thinking is that upstream
convection will be on a sharp diminishing trend after 09z, but
with uptick in elevated instability and a likely outflow boundary
pushing across the area, kfwa will also be inline for thunder
chances. with lesser thunder confidence at kfwa, will continue to
limit this to vcts mention at this time. unsettled pattern to
linger into friday as primary upper trough moves through the area,
with continued showers/embedded thunder and eventual transition
to mainly afternoon rain showers in deformation-type forcing
portion of the storm. mvfr cigs are possible for a time on friday,
but currently expecting cigs to remain above fuel alternate
criteria for the most part.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for inz009-017-018-
023>027-032>034.

mi...none.
oh...heat advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.

lm...none.
&&

$$

update...marsili
synopsis...marsili
short term...cm
long term...cm
aviation...marsili


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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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000
fxus63 kdtx 100344
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1144 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

.aviation...

gradual increase in stability overnight favors a period of quiet
conditions after earlier convective activity during the early-mid
morning hours. radar trends currently support this trend. a greater
potential for thunderstorms will exist friday afternoon and early
evening as a frontal boundary tracks through the region. an initial
round of convection may arrive as early as 15-16z, with more
widespread activity anticipated for mid-late afternoon. confidence
remains high enough to outlook these periods for all southeast
michigan terminals.


dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for thunderstorms friday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 356 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

discussion...

another hot and muggy afternoon and evening to get through on this
heat advisory stretch across southeast michigan before a little
relief arrives tomorrow. southwest flow into the area has maintained
high moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. this is
both increasing heat indices to near 100 and supporting the
continued chances for diurnally driven convection. the main trigger
for these showers and thunderstorms are lake boundaries and minor
waves rolling through the area. any initial activity will then kick
out outflow boundaries, which could then triggering additional
showers and thunderstorms. environment today is characterized by
mlcape values of 1000-2000 j/kg, steep low level lapse rates of at
least 8-9 c/km with flow below 20 knots up to around 10 km. in this
weakly sheared environment, disorganized pulse type showers and
thunderstorms will be the main storm mode. high moisture and steep
low level lapse rates will support downburst potential from water
loading of the more robust updrafts.

the heat advisory will remain in effect through this evening as warm
and muggy conditions persist with overnight lows remaining in the
70s. the good news is a brief pattern shift takes place tomorrow as
a shortwave is forecast to track across the great lakes. timing of
this shortwave will bring increasing cloud cover early in the day
with scattered convection possible during the late morning/early
afternoon. this will mitigate further warming and hold high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. high moisture with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will remain in place tomorrow,
so it will still feel pretty muggy. continued higher moisture will
bring heat indices into the low to mid 90s with only localized spots
capable of reaching the upper 90s in the urban heat island of
detroit. this moisture will again fuel convection with the best
forcing for more widespread activity after 18z with the approaching
cold front and larger scale ascent. clouds and any earlier activity
puts into question the degree of instability that can develop with
slightly better shear promoting better organization than previous
days. it still appears to be a low severe threat at this time, but it
will be something to keep an eye on tomorrow as the day evolves.

northwest post frontal winds bring a much needed break from the
highs in the 90s this weekend. humidity will drop as well with the
70s dewpoints being pushed south of the state with high temperatures
forecast to fall back into the 80s. the synoptic pattern over the
weekend will have troughing/lower heights over the great lakes as a
few pacific shortwaves move through the northern periphery of the
four corners ridge. this leaves open the possibility for some
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend with the
stronger shortwave on sunday bringing the best chance for more
widespread activity. unfortunately, the respite from heat will begin
to release through early next week as ridging builds into the great
lakes and allows southwest flow to bring a return of heat and
humidity. by wednesday, models forecast 850mb temperatures climbing
back above 20c helping high temperatures rise back into the low/mid
90s range.

marine...

a weak pressure gradient across the region will persist through
tonight while providing light and variable winds across the region.
afternoon thunderstorm chances will once again exist today but most
storm activity will remain over land areas where instability will be
a little greater. a weak area of low pressure will then move across
lower michigan on friday. this system will bring a much better
chance for thunderstorms to the marine areas. this system will also
result in light south-southeast winds across the marine areas friday
with winds backing toward the northwest by saturday as the low
pressure system moves east of the region. light offshore winds will
keep marine conditions favorable outside of thunderstorm activity.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...heat advisory until midnight edt tonight for miz047-048-053-060>062-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mr
discussion...aa
marine.......drk

you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.