Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
000
fxus61 kcle 290119
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
919 pm edt sun apr 28 2024

.synopsis...
a stationary boundary to the north of the region will give way
to a cold front that will push through the area monday into
monday night. high pressure tuesday into wednesday, followed by
a weak cold front later on wednesday.

&&

.near term /through monday night/...
920 pm...quiet weather is expected through the rest of this
evening with mild low temperatures in the low to mid-60s.

previous discussion...some showers firing along a weak area of
surface convergence in the eastern third of the cwa at this hour
due to a surface trough, and should be pushing out over the
next few hours. this leaves the forecast area largely dry going
through tonight and into monday in the warm sector with the low
pressure center and cold front well to the west, although the
stationary front to the north may drift southward clipping the
nw pa counties with a few more isolated showers this evening and
tonight. this frontal system pushes eastward late monday into
monday night with the next round of showers and storms for the
forecast area. some instability out ahead of the expected
convection with the cold front, but it is slightly out of phase
with the layer moisture. only going to get a short window for
showers and storms with a fairly progressive line, and behind
the cold front, expect the mid and upper levels to dry out
significantly. in the meantime, another fairly warm day near the
80f mark for the bulk of the cwa in temperatures in the range
of 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.short term /tuesday through wednesday night/...
showers are expected for the first half as a cold front associated
with a low pressure over the western great lakes region moves east
across the area. showers and thunderstorms are expected along and
ahead of the boundary, which will further be supported by the area
being positioned in the right entrance region of an upper level jet.
showers will taper from west to east throughout the day tuesday. as
an upper level ridge and associated surface high nudge into the area
behind the departing front, conditions will dry out for tuesday
night through wednesday night. the high pressure will gradually move
east, allowing for waa and increased moisture transport to return
across the area. this may result in a few showers late wednesday
night, but with models generally slowing the progression of the
system, opted to keep it dry for now with the precipitation chances
occurring in the long term period. temperatures on tuesday will be
in the low to mid 70s, but will climb on wednesday into the upper
70s to low 80s with that waa regime becoming established. both
nights will be mild with temperatures dropping into the 50s.

&&

.long term /thursday through sunday/...
chances of precipitation increase for later this week as an
unsettled pattern returns across the us. the key feature driving
much of the weather in this period will be an upper level trough
developing over the western us and gradually shifting east into the
western great lakes region before pivoting north. a low pressure
system will develop at the surface, extending a boundary just north
of the cwa on thursday. this will allow for continued waa and
moisture advection. some long range models have marginal diurnal
instability developing on thursday which may result in a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across western
counties thursday and thursday night. by friday, the aforementioned
trough begins to pivot, likely putting the area under the right
entrance region of the upper level jet. this will allow for strong
upper level support and showers becoming widespread beginning
friday. these showers will gradually taper from west to east late
friday night into early saturday as the cold front moves east across
the area. after these diminish, the chances of showers and
thunderstorms for much of saturday and sunday goes down as a ridge
builds in again. temperatures through the period will start hot with
highs climbing into the low to mid 80s, but gradually cool to highs
in the upper 60s to low 70s by sunday. lows will generally linger in
the 50s expect for thursday night when temperatures will only fall
into the low 60s.

&&

.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
vfr across the taf sites this evening with vfr to persist
through the taf period. main period to watch will be towards the
end of the taf period for monday afternoon/evening, particularly
across the western taf sites (tol/fdy) as a line of
showers/thunderstorms approaches from the west. included vcts
for now with likely vcts additions needed eastward in the next
update.

apart from lake breezes at cle/eri, winds are generally out of
the south to southwest, around 10 knots. winds will increase
again out of the south to southwest by late monday morning, 10
to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms monday
evening into tuesday. non-vfr may return in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms thursday night into friday.

&&

.marine...
southwest flow of 10-15 knots will continue through this evening
before high pressure again becomes established over the area tonight
and allow for winds to weaken to 5-10 knots. these southwest winds
will again increase to 10-15 knots on monday ahead of an approaching
cold front that will move east across the lake monday night into
tuesday. before the passage of this boundary, there remains a chance
for a weak lake breeze to develop along the western lakeshore.
behind the cold front, winds will gain more of a westerly component,
but remain at 5-10 knots through tuesday night. high pressure
returns on wednesday with a warm front moving north across the lake
on thursday. this will result in another period of southwesterly
flow of 5-10 knots is expected through thursday before strengthening
on friday to 10-15 knots. another cold front moves east friday night
into saturday. no marine headlines are anticipated at this time.

&&

.climate...
forecast high temperatures on monday may be within a few degrees
of the daily record maximums for some climate locations. here are
the historical record high temperatures for monday, april 29th.

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
04-29 87(1899) 81(1942) 84(1899) 84(1888) 85(1942) 82(1899)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
ny...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...26
near term...kahn/26
short term...campbell
long term...campbell
aviation...kahn
marine...campbell
climate...

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
000
fxus63 kiwx 290019
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
819 pm edt sun apr 28 2024

.key messages...

- showers and some thunderstorms will be possible this evening
into early monday and again monday afternoon with gusty winds
and heavy rain being the main threats.

- additional chances for showers and thunderstorms expected
during mid to late week period next week.

- warm with highs in the 70s through friday with 80s also
possible on thursday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 254 pm edt sun apr 28 2024

the upper low pressure system across the upper mississippi valley
moves northeast into canada this evening through monday night.
during which time, it`ll push its moisture stream into the forecast
area tonight. after an afternoon of mostly dry weather, chances for
rain are expected to increase west of in-31 as it moves east.
however, the surface convergence breaks down, instability only
achieves 500 j/kg of energy, and precipitation amounts in
models lower despite continued push of 1 to 1.5 inch pwats (1 to
3 sds above normal) along with 30 kts of effective shear into
the area. as such, will look to keep likely pops at best. then,
as the moisture stream slides east on monday, the area with the
best chance to see any stronger storms appears to be east of
in-15 and perhaps even as far east as east of i-69. the 7 c/km
mid level lapse rates depart the area before the afternoon, but
there is some maintenance of the 30 kts of effective shear and
500 j/kg mucape so perhaps a damaging wind gust could be had in
the moist environment. shear appears to have some tendency of
both boundary-parallel and -perpendicular flow owing to
individual cells and perhaps some linear segments as well. with
the mbe vectors going into the inner circle perhaps there could
be some back building or slow moving cells to allow for a heavy
rain allotment with its convective component. upper divergence
appears to return to southeast after 00z monday night, which
could also support the heavy rain component. the moisture stream
slides out of the area for tuesday allowing for a drier day
with sunshine to be observed, especially during the afternoon
for eastern areas. highs still reside in the 70s monday and
tuesday.

tuesday night into wednesday morning, a deepening progressive, but
slightly negatively tilted area of vorticity swings into the
northern great lakes, forcing dissipates as precipitation approaches
from the west, so will continue with the dry forecast for wednesday.
additional ridging continues to build in the southeast conus
wednesday through thursday night continuing the dry streak for
the area. it won`t be until friday that we have another chance
to see more rain as a cold front comes through. timing is in
question especially as it pertains to if we can receive a
convective component. next weekend looks cooler with highs in
the 60s. saturday leans drier than sunday, but sunday`s chance
for rain is on the low side as well.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 736 pm edt sun apr 28 2024


mostly dry conditions will continue at least through 12z mon
however a few light showers ahead of the trough as it continues
to shift eastward tonight with another jet streak making its
way around the base of the trough. this and the approach of the
cold front should allow for an increase in speed convergence
and lift which will increase chances of rain showers with even a
few embedded storms and will then move eastward through the day
on monday. currently have rain showers with vcts for ksbn after
12z with showers after 18z mon for kfwa. did mention vcsh for
kfwa after 12z mon. felt less confident on the exact timing of
thunder for kfwa for later in the day so added as prob30. at
this time i have kept vfr conditions through the period, but
would not be surprised to have a short period or two with the
heavier showers/storms to get a temporary drop in cigs and vsby.
winds will also be gusty at times with gusts around 25-30 knots
possible through the period.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
000
fxus63 kdtx 290341
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1141 pm edt sun apr 28 2024

.key messages...

- another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms tomorrow,
some of which could be strong.

- well above normal temperatures expected continue through the week.

&&

.aviation...

post frontal moisture on the cool side a shallow surface front
continues to support widespread lifr ceilings north of kptk.
strengthening south flow in the warm sector overnight will then
gradually lift the front back north as a warm front. this will
result in a slow departure of the low clouds from south to north
during the later morning. the best chance for convective development
on monday looks to be in the afternoon, driven by forced ascent
along a pre cold frontal trough axis within an unstable environment.

for dtw/d21 convection...any nighttime convection is expected to
remain mainly north of the d21 airspace overnight. a scattered to
broken line of thunderstorms is then expected to traverse the
airspace from west to east late in the day monday, 19z to 01z.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in thunderstorms late monday.

* low in ceilings at or below 5000 feet tonight. moderate on monday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 322 pm edt sun apr 28 2024

discussion...

moist airmass in place over southeast michigan, as the 12z dtx raob
came in with a near record high pw value of 1.35 inches or 221
percent of normal. short lived, modest mid level dry slot, is moving
in for the rest of the afternoon over the central great lakes, which
has allowed the widespread showers this morning to taper off. still
have warm frontal boundary hanging around, with enough instability
(mlcapes 400-800 j/kg) to potentially trigger convection through the
evening hours, mainly north of the boundary (north of m-59). 0-1 km
bulk shear values 30+ knots along/near the front draws concern for
cells to rotate, but limited cape and modest mid level lapse rates
expected to keep storms non-severe, with 700-500 mb upper level
ridging also tending to suppress activity.

large, well developed, mid-upper level low/circulation over the
plains will be slowly lifting northeast into ontario tuesday
morning. better large scale support arrives monday with height falls
and surface cold front tracking through during the day. favorable
timing of the front during/near peak heating draws concerns for
severe storms, but once again, instability is expected to be limited
with mlcapes mainly under 1000 j/kg. wind fields are elevated, with
850 mb winds (30-40 knots) and favorable 0-6 km bulk shear around 40
knots. would not rule out storms approaching severe limits with more
substantial cloud breaks developing during the day than currently
anticipated.

muddled forecast for next week as strong upper level low and energy
comes out of the gulf of alaska moves through the northern rockies
early next week and mostly loses it`s eastern push/momentum.
southeast michigan loses to be caught in between the building upper
level trough over the southeastern u.s. and the series of height
falls tracking through the midwest and upper mississippi river
valley. higher confidence in temperatures ending up solidly above
normal. low confidence in rain and thunderstorm chances.

marine...

a low pressure system will travel north across the western midwest
today, settling over western lake superior by tomorrow night. this
will push a stalled frontal boundary, which is currently draped over
central michigan, north into the northern great lakes. rain and some
rumbles of thunder remain likely along this frontal boundary through
early tomorrow morning. the position of the low will also reinforce
northeast flow across the great lakes through tomorrow morning,
bringing elevated wave heights across the saginaw bay to harbor
beach, where small craft advisories are in effect.

a very shallow mixing layer is expected to develop tomorrow morning
across north to north-central lake huron which will allow for some
localized higher wind gust potential with flow coming from the
northeast. gusts around 30 to 35 knots will be likely, centered
between 10z to 20z. was on the fence with the issuance of a gale
warning, but confidence remains low whether gale potential will
persist in any given three hour window, especially if the marine
layer is more stable relative to modeled sounding projections. a
short fused gale warning will still be considered for future updates
if model trends suggest higher probabilities for gale potential.

otherwise, shower and storm potential will increase for all
locations tomorrow afternoon and evening, ahead of a cold front.
thunderstorms will have the potential to produce isolated gusts to
or above 30 knots.

hydrology...

scattered-numerous showers and thunderstorms will remain
mainly north of m-59 through tonight as a frontal boundary
holds steady through this evening before lifting north by monday
morning. another round of numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms are expected across all of southeast michigan monday
afternoon as cold front tracks through. additional rainfall
this evening through tomorrow evening looks to average around
half an inch across most locations, but any stronger thunderstorms
will push totals to at or above 1 inch. while significant flooding
is not expected at this time, minor flooding in prone urban and poor
drainage areas is possible, with notable rises in area rivers.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt monday for lhz421-441.

small craft advisory until 10 am edt monday for lhz422.

dense fog advisory until 2 pm edt monday for lhz441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...sf
marine.......sf
hydrology....sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.