Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
418
fxus61 kcle 271801
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
101 pm est thu nov 27 2025

.synopsis...
low pressure centered over the northern great lakes region will
maintain a surface trough over the area through friday. a very brief
area of high pressure will push east on saturday before another
system moves from the southern plains northeast across the region on
sunday. high pressure returns for the start of next week.

&&

.near term /through friday/...
9:45 am update:
dropped the wind advisory for lorain and cuyahoga counties.
while occasional gusts to 40 mph will remain possible near the
lakeshore through this evening, the potential for gusts over 45
mph has diminished. a slightly elevated site in fairport harbor
continues to report gusts well over 45 mph at times this morning
and the flow aloft will remain similar through this
evening...while any advisory-level gusts over 45 mph will likely
be sporadic and confined to near the immediate shoreline, will
keep the wind advisory going for lake county, along with the
lakeshore zones in ashtabula and erie counties.

as for the lake effect, the main band of snow is extending from
the northeast corner of cuyahoga county across lake county,
northern geauga county, northern and central ashtabula county,
and into southern erie/northern crawford counties in pa. another
band is impacting northeastern erie county. likely due to the
strong winds, the band is somewhat fanned out and cellular at
the moment. this, along with the strongest instability and lift
residing below the dendritic growth zone, is keeping snowfall
rates under control at mainly under 1" per hour...though
portions of the band are producing enough snow to drop
visibility below 1/4 of a mile (with the help of the wind) and
accumulate quickly on roads, so impacts are ongoing. expect the
location of the snow to mainly hold steady through early
afternoon, or perhaps drift south just a few more miles. snow
intensity and organization should increase through the afternoon
into this evening as synoptic support improves ahead of a
shortwave, with winds veering more substantially by this evening
behind the shortwave and pushing activity farther south into
the cleveland area and more of the snowbelt.

no changes to the lake effect headlines this morning. will
evaluate if warnings are still needed for the ashtabula and erie
lakeshore zones this afternoon, as reports in those areas are
generally 1-3" so far with heavier activity already settling
south of those areas...will also closely evaluate potential
amounts tonight into early friday in northern portage and
trumbull for a potential warning upgrade or two.

previous discussion:

far northeast ohio/northwest pennsylvania (snowbelt):

as a strong low pressure system centered over southeast ontario
continue to move east, a dominant surface trough will linger across
the area bringing a notable lake effect snow event to the snowbelt
in ne oh and nw pa. heavy lake effect snow has already begun to
develop across lake erie, pushing northeast towards ny. as the upper
level trough axis pushes east of the area, the predominant southwest
flow will begin to back and gain a more west-northwest flow. this
will cause this band of lake effect snow to begin to push inland.
currently models suggest that this process will begin around 9z
today for erie county pa and by 12z elsewhere. much of the forecast
remains unchanged in terms of timing and location of lake effect
snow with this update so not going to rehash all the mesoscale
details. the only this that did change a bit was the total snowfall
expected across northern geauga and south lake counties. hi-res
guidance has become more consistent in a strong convergence zone
developing over this area this afternoon into tonight, further
enhancing any bands that develop. as a result, with this forecast
update have opted to increase snowfall totals in lake county (south
of i-90), far eastern cuyahoga county, and northern geauga county
to be 12-15 inches. depending where the band sets up and how long it
lingers over a specific area, locally higher totals are possible.
elsewhere across the snowbelt, a broad 8-15 inches of snowfall are
possible with higher amounts in excess of 18 inches possible across
inland erie pa. given the very conducive environment for lake
effect, snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour will be possible at
times in the heaviest bands. these rates will not impact the entire
warning area simultaneously given the nature of lake effect, so
expected rapidly changing conditions if traveling through the
snowbelt. this heavy snowfall is expected to impact the holiday
travel and motorist should use extreme caution with the worst
conditions expected today and tonight. conditions will gradually
improve on friday as the surface trough begins to push further east
and lake effect snow showers become more disorganized and drier air
pushes in. a lake effect snow warning remains in effect for the
snowbelt through friday evening.

in addition to the heavy snow expected to fall, elevated winds from
the wnw along the lakeshore will likely result in areas of blowing
snow through tonight. wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph are expected to
persist into tonight which will further enhance hazardous travel
conditions with blowing/drifting snow and reduced visibilities
likely. winds will gradually calm throughout the day on friday. a
wind advisory remains in effect for this area through late tonight.

high temperatures through this period will be much cooler than
recent temperatures with highs only climbing into the low to mid 30s
and overnight lows falling into the low to mid 20s. given the strong
winds, wind chill temperatures today and tomorrow will drop into the
low 20s. overnight wind chill values are expected to drop into the
low to mid teens. it is worth noting that temperatures along the
immediate lakeshore will be a degree or two warmer due to influence
from lake erie.

areas outside of the snowbelt:

the aforementioned strong low pressure will continue to impact the
rest of the area as well, but the bulk of conditions should remain
dry outside of the snowbelt. there is a slight chance that once
winds shift to more northwesterly, lake effect bands off of lake
michigan may meander southeast across northwest ohio and the central
highlands and result in scattered snow showers. this snow potential
should be isolated to today and tonight before conditions dry out on
friday. in addition, gusty winds will linger across the entire area
today with sustained winds of 15-25 mph and gusts of 40-45 mph
possible. although winds will remain elevated, given the weakening
gusts, winds will fall below criteria for a wind advisory so the
ongoing one will be allowed to expire at 4am today.


for the entire area, high temperatures through this period will be
much cooler than recent temperatures with highs only climbing into
the low to mid 30s and overnight lows falling into the low to mid
20s. given the strong winds, wind chill temperatures today and
tomorrow will drop into the low 20s. overnight wind chill values are
expected to drop into the low to mid teens. it is worth noting that
temperatures along the immediate lakeshore will be a degree or two
warmer due to influence from lake erie.

&&

.short term /friday night through sunday night/...
on friday night, dry air associated with a high pressure building
east will cut off any lingering lake effect snow showers across far
nwpa and allow for a brief period of widespread dry conditions
through saturday morning. this high pressure will be very brief as
another potent low pressure system is expected to push northeast out
of the southern plains across the central great lakes region.
precipitation associated with this low will spread across the area
lake saturday into sunday, remaining primarily as all snow given the
sub-freezing temperatures through the vertical. general snowfall
totals area wide should be 1-2 inches. the exception of this is in
and around the toledo metro area which may see up to 4" of snowfall.
exact totals are expected to vary over the next couple forecast
updates, but worth noting accumulating snow is likely.

on sunday, warming temperatures should allow for a transition from
snow to rain without any issue, however some models continue to
suggest that there is a very small chance of isolated pockets of
freezing rain or sleet to mix in early to mid sunday morning. will
continue to monitor this potential, but if it were to occur the area
most likely impacted would be across the mahoning valley. showers on
sunday will gradually end from west to east as the trough axis
pushes east. some lingering lake effect snow showers are possible
sunday evening into the overnight hours across the snowbelt, but
accumulations are expected to remain 1-3 inches.

temperatures on saturday will remain cold in the low to mid 50s
before warming a tad on sunday back into the mid 30s to low 40s.
overnight lows will remain in the upper teens to low 20s through the
period.

&&

.long term /monday through wednesday/...
an active weather pattern will persist through the long term period
as a weak upper level trough moves a low pressure system from the
lower mississippi valley towards the mid-atlantic coast before it
becomes a coastal low monday into tuesday. this should have limited
impacts to the area given the positioning north of the center.
however, models continue to suggest a broad area of isentropic lift
which will keep a chance of snow showers across the area through
tuesday. by tuesday night, the aforementioned low will approach
water off of the coast of new england, resulting in a surface trough
developing and the possible return of lake effect snow showers to
portions of the snowbelt. models diverge quite a bit on timing and
location of this low so confidence is low in any snowfall
accumulation or timing forecast. winter temperatures will linger
with highs expected in the low to mid 30s and overnight lows falling
into the low to mid 20s.

&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
lake effect snow continues across the snowbelt region of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through the taf
period, though the heaviest snowfall rates of 1"/hr and 1/4sm
visibility seems likely to miss most taf sites. outside of the
snowbelt, snow showers are likely for much of the area as snow
showers stream off of lake michigan. visibilities within snow
bands will vary between 1-5 sm. ceilings will generally be in
the 1500-3500 ft range. the best potential for heavy snow and
visibilities of 1 sm or lower will be at kcle and kyng late this
evening through the predawn hours friday morning.

gusty winds will continue at all terminals today. most locations
will have westerly winds around 15 knots gusting to 25 knots.
winds may be stronger at keri where flow off lake erie could
result in winds gusting to 35 knots.

outlook...non-vfr ceilings will continue across parts of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through saturday
morning. a low pressure system will enter the great lakes
region this weekend, bringing light to moderate snowfall
areawide late saturday afternoon through sunday morning, with
lake effect snow lingering across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania through monday.

&&

.marine...
southwesterly gales on lake erie shift to westerly today. winds will
settle into 30-35 knot range on the western basin with winds to 40
knot gales still on the eastern two thirds of the lake. waves will
peak at 12-16 feet on the east end of the lake this morning. the
gale warning west of the lake erie islands goes until 4 am friday
but there is some potential that we may be able to end it a little
sooner if winds drop below criteria before that time. the
warning continues on the central and eastern portions of lake
erie until 10 am friday. small craft advisories will be needed
following the gale until late friday night on the eastern half
of the lake.

due to the continued strong southwest to westerly winds, a low water
advisory remains in effect on the western basin of lake erie through
4 am friday. the lowest expected water levels occurred wednesday
evening. early thursday morning the water level was nearly two feet
below low water datum. water levels are generally expected to range
from 1 to 2 feet below low water datum through this evening,
although may approach the critical mark at times.

high pressure with good marine conditions will be over lake erie on
saturday for a brief window. southerly winds ramp up to 30 knots
saturday night as low pressure tracks from the southern plain into
the central great lakes. winds veer to westerly sunday and
northwesterly sunday night and additional small craft advisories are
likely saturday night through sunday night.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...lake effect snow warning until 7 pm est friday for ohz011>014-
089.
wind advisory until 1 am est friday for ohz012-089.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est friday for ohz021>023.
pa...wind advisory until 1 am est friday for paz001.
lake effect snow warning until 1 am est saturday for
paz001>003.
marine...gale warning until 4 am est friday for lez142>144-162>164.
low water advisory until 4 am est friday for lez142>144-
162>164.
gale warning until 10 am est friday for lez145>149-165>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...04
near term...04/sullivan
short term...04
long term...04
aviation...saunders
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
714
fxus63 kiwx 271714
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1214 pm est thu nov 27 2025

.key messages...

- lake effect snow will persist into friday.

- blustery and cold today with wind chills in the teens to
around 20.

- snow will develop early saturday and persist into sunday.
holiday travel impacts likely.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 340 am est thu nov 27 2025

light lake effect snow was continuing to fall across northern
indiana and far southern lower michigan. the snow was falling
mainly north of route 6. conditions remain favorable for lake
effect snow with relatively mild lake michigan water
temperatures and a modest fetch across the lake. indications
were that the lake temperatures were still in the 40s to around
50. the snow will finally end friday as inversion heights fall
with mild air reaching the area in the 850/700 mb layer.

there will only be a brief respite from the snow as system snow
will spread across the entire area this weekend. a strong
shortwave trof should become slightly negatively tilted and
provide the support for several inches of snow. the cloud layer
will deepen this weekend with the dendritic growth zone nearly
entirely in the top of the cloud layer. after coordination with
wpc and surrounding offices have snow starting early saturday.
the snow should persist through saturday night with several
inches of accumulation. some mild low level air may be warm
enough to cause the snow to mix with rain, especially from lima
to portland to marion. wind chills will dip below zero at times
from sunday into early wednesday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1209 pm est thu nov 27 2025

lake effect snow showers continue in a disorganized cellular
mode. depth of moisture profiles and limited fetch appear to be
limiting factors for more organized lake effect setup. by later
this afternoon, another mid level trough will bring a
reinforcing low level thermal trough across the southern great
lakes. inversion heights and moisture depths will increase as
this low level thermal trough advects into the area which should
allow for some better lake effect snow organization late this
afternoon into this evening. ksbn continues to be on western
fringe of more notable lake effect snow showers with higher end
ifr vsbys around 2sm persisting. some light snow showers/flurries
are also reaching kfwa, but conditions remain higher end mvfr
or vfr. northwest winds will stay somewhat gusty through the
period with gusts around 25 kts.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter storm watch from late friday night through sunday
afternoon for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...winter storm watch from late friday night through sunday
afternoon for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024.
mi...winter storm watch from late friday night through sunday
afternoon for miz078>081-177-277.
winter weather advisory until 7 am est friday for miz078-079-
177-277.
marine...gale warning until 1 am est friday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...marsili/cobb

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
490
fxus63 kdtx 271700
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1200 pm est thu nov 27 2025

.key messages...

- flurries/snow showers and gusty winds (30 to 35 mph) continue
today. most areas will see a dusting up to an inch of snow, although
locally higher amounts are possible mainly in the thumb region.

- quieter pattern friday and saturday with highs in the mid 30s.

- increasing confidence in accumulating snowfall saturday evening
into sunday.

&&

.aviation...

westerly winds still gusting aoa 30 knots this afternoon, but
predominately low vfr cloud cigs with the daytime boundary layer
depths increased. streamers/flurries from lake michigan around as
well. more significant band up around saginaw bay, and is expected to
remain east of mbs this afternoon. however, as low level winds veer
a bit more to the northwest this evening, its possible a few snow
showers impact the tri-cities region. otherwise, bulk of the lake
generated stratocu shrinks back toward lake michigan as subsidence
and some dry air takes hold this evening/tonight. this will support
periods of ceiling free skies over the taf sites, as streamer mvfr
clouds remain transient. low confidence on timing of the breaks
however, and mostly erred on the cloudier side for the tafs.

for dtw.. just some passing flurries possible this afternoon with
cigs holding under 5000 feet.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet this afternoon, medium tonight and
friday.

* low for crosswind threshold exceedence today.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 913 am est thu nov 27 2025

update...

the 12z dtx sounding showed some degree of limitation with potential
convective depths this morning with some stability in the mid
levels. colder mid level temps upstream will boost the equilibrium
levels this afternoon. however, ongoing low level dry air advection
will place a substantial amount of dry air in the sub cloud layer.
persistent west-northwest winds will remain supportive of a moisture
feed off lake michigan. the dry air suggests mainly scattered snow
showers and/or flurries through the rest of the day, but with
nothing more than a dusting expected. a dominate lake band
originating from lake superior impacted northern huron county earlier
this morning. recent radar data indicate the band has broken apart
over the thumb, with some redevelopment offshore. can not rule out
some additional extensions of the dominate banding over northern
lower mi extending into the thumb region today. for this reason,
minor additional snow accums (around an inch) will be carried in the
thumb today. otherwise, gusty winds will maintain a brisk holiday
with afternoon wind chill readings holding in the 20s.

prev discussion...
issued at 430 am est thu nov 27 2025

discussion...

broad cyclonic flow has become firmly established across the great
lakes overnight, with a notable lake superior-lake michigan
connection generating multiple bands of lake effect snow across the
state. two notable areas of lake effect snow are reaching se
michigan: one plume that is focused south of i-94, and the more
organized linear banding over northern lower mi that is just now
reaching into the thumb. both areas are starting to exhibit a more
organized presentation on radar, likely as the diurnal minimum
provides a brief window of decoupling. for most of the night,
however, the cold and turbulent boundary layer has been quite
disruptive to any linear organization. the southern stream les lacks
the lake superior connection, and exhibits a more cellular, broad
plume of light-moderate snow that is likely to result in just minor
accumulations (dusting to highly localized 1 inch) for areas south
of i-94 through the first half of the day. the northern stream band
affords a bit less confidence considering the lake aggregate effects
and possible (albeit small) influence of saginaw bay. the latest
short-term models have backed off of accumulations in the thumb, now
in the 1 to 3 inch range although will still keep a close eye on the
region for any achievement. gusty winds and reduced visibility in
snow showers will again produce variable travel conditions across se
michigan for the holiday.

for the rest of se michigan: west winds of 30 to 35 mph will
continue throughout the day, with wind chills this morning in the
teens and only forecast to rise into the low 20s this afternoon.
occasional flurries and/or light snow showers remain possible
outside of the main lake effect bands, amidst a healthy coverage of
lake stratocu.

high pressure begins to build into the region friday, with broad
subsidence stripping away column moisture. lingering lake effect
snow showers will gradually taper toward flurries with the
increasing reliance on lake michigan moisture flux. high pressure
influence also aids in relaxing gradient winds for a less windy end
to the holiday week. flow eventually shifts to the southwest friday
night, fully shutting off the lake response for a mainly dry daytime
period saturday. highs both days in the low to mid 30s.

trends are becoming more favorable for accumulating synoptic
snowfall saturday night-sunday. origins of this system begin with a
cluster of pacific shortwaves that move into the lee of the rockies
late friday, just as return flow is ramping up into the plains.
surface low development and a blossoming precipitation shield are
expected across the central plains by saturday morning as the lead
shortwave connects with the moisture transport. the low is forecast
to eject out of the tx panhandle and lift toward the great lakes by
saturday evening, with the broader trough taking on a neutral-
negative tilt as it arrives. this helps draw left exit region
dynamics into se michigan, along with a period of strong mid-level
warm advection that will be a primary source of broad synoptic
forcing throughout the event. direct influence of the sfc-700mb
circulation may introduce banding potential as well, but not placing
much confidence in this yet as synoptic details are still being
sorted out.

variance in the model guidance so far has been tied mostly to the
phasing (or lack thereof) of the embedded waves, with the latest
trends increasing the separation between them. this has favored a
weaker/more progressive overall synoptic system and a more southerly
track to the low, nudging the forecast toward a colder solution that
favors snow as the main p-type. there is still some question as to
how far north the system`s warm sector gets, which is one of the
main sources of uncertainty with this forecast especially toward the
detroit suburbs and points south. these locations are more likely to
see temperatures near or even above freezing for a portion of the
event. overall though, operational model output and the
interquartile range of lref members increase confidence that winter
headlines may be needed this weekend.

the great lakes will reside on the cold side of the baroclinic zone
through the early half of next week. temperatures monday and tuesday
struggle to break out of the mid 20s, while the sharp thermal
gradient over the tn valley is a prime track for additional waves to
follow, keeping an active pattern in play through the rest of the
forecast period.

marine...

low pressure is in the process of pushing away from the great lakes
over northern ontario early this morning. this shifts winds to the
northwest across the region with widespread 35-40kt gales finally
becoming established over the northern portions of lake huron. for
the southern waters, overnight peak gusts of 40-45kts linger through
the early morning hours, though with the gradual departure of the
low, gusts weaken slightly favoring speeds more in the 35-40kt
range. northwesterly gales hold throughout the day today as does
lake effect snow showers as arctic air settles over the great lakes.
influence of the remnant trough doesn`t begin to wane until tonight
keeping entry level gales possible into early friday morning,
particularly across the southern half of lake huron. eventually the
northern edge of high pressure sliding across the ohio valley
gradually builds into the central great lakes over the course of
friday supporting a slow, but steady decrease in winds with sub 30kt
flow developing by the latter half of the day.

high maintains light winds to start the weekend however southerly
winds strengthen toward 20-25kts by saturday night in advance of a
new low ejecting out of the southern plains and into the southern
great lakes. this system looks to roughly track along northern lake
erie toward the st lawrence seaway late saturday night-sunday
bringing widespread snow (with some rain potentially mixed in the
south). winds turn to the northwest on the backside of the system
second half of the day sunday setting up a renewed push of arctic
air over the region. weaker low, compared to wednesday`s low, and a
faster progression into northeastern canada lends to a less
favorable gale setup. that said, there is still some potential
(~30%) for a period of entry level gales across northern lake huron
sunday evening/early night.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning until 7 am est friday for lhz361-362.

gale warning until 10 am est friday for lhz363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.

lake st clair...gale warning until 4 am est friday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...gale warning until 4 am est friday for lez444.

low water advisory until 4 am est friday for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....sf
update.......sc
discussion...mv
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.