Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
420
fxus61 kcle 200734
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
334 am edt mon apr 20 2026

.what has changed...
- a freeze warning remains in effect until 11 am edt monday
morning for all of northern oh and northwest pennsylvania.

- a freeze warning has been issued for most of our cwa from 8 pm
monday evening to 10 am tuesday morning, except for lucas,
ottawa, sandusky, wood, and hancock counties.

&&

.key messages...
1.) unusually-cold air temperatures persist through monday night.
frost and sub-32f low temperatures are a concern again monday
night into tuesday morning.

2.) a warming trend will begin tuesday and continue through
this upcoming weekend.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
there are some lingering scattered rain showers mixing with wet
snow early this morning across portions of northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania. the trend is for these showers to
decrease and move out of the area before sunrise this morning.
high pressure centered over the upper midwest and lower great
lakes region will continue to build over the area today. skies
will clear out today allowing for mostly sunny to partly cloudy
conditions. high temperatures will be below average ranging from
the lower 40s over nwpa and neoh to the middle and upper 40s
over nwoh this afternoon. the center of the high pressure will
be right over neoh by this evening. with light winds and clear
skies, temperatures should drop quickly after sunset this
evening into the middle 20s over nwpa and the upper 20s to lower
30s over neoh and north central ohio. most of northern ohio and
nwpa is under a freeze warning again tonight into tuesday
morning with the exception of northwest ohio where temperatures
will fall in the middle 30s.

key message 2...
a warming trend and shift in the weather pattern will begin
tuesday. the area will be on the backside of the exiting high
pressure system with a return of southerly winds on tuesday.
high temperatures will range from the lower 60s across nwpa and
the middle to upper 60s across neoh and north central ohio.
high temperatures will reach the lower 70s across nwoh tuesday
afternoon with plenty of sunshine. a weak front will drop
through the great lakes region tuesday night into early
wednesday with scattered rain showers and an isolated
thunderstorm possible. this front will have not much impact to
our temperatures on the backside wednesday. high temperatures
will still range from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

an upper level ridge will track from the midwest into the ohio
valley and great lakes region on thursday. much warmer weather
is expected by thursday and friday with highs in the middle and
upper 70s, some locations may reach 80 degrees. the next weather
system to impact the region will be a cold front this weekend
with scattered chances for rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms possible. highs this weekend will be in the middle
to upper 60s.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
some mvfr ceilings with scattered rain/snow showers continues
through ne oh and nw pa early this morning with the secondary
cold front through the region. the incoming air mass behind the
front is extremely dry and any precipitation should be done in
the next couple of hours. the mvfr will take a bit longer to
clear out with some support from lake erie abut should largely
be done by dawn. some 5-6 kft clouds will linger in ne oh and nw
pa through the morning hours but should be vfr for the morning
pushes. high pressure entering from the west will bring clearing
conditions which will spread across all of the terminals by the
end of the taf period. winds will be north to northwest through
the period, generally 10 kts or less.

outlook...non-vfr possible tuesday night and wednesday in rain
showers, some isolated thunderstorms are also possible.

&&

.marine...
overall, it appears to be an uneventful marine weather week on
lake erie. light northwest flow will continue on the lake today
with high pressure moving across the region. this feature will
move east tonight and winds will become southerly. a warm front
moving across the lake on tuesday will enhance southwest flow on
the lake, but flow should remain below 20 kts. a cold front will
move over the lake on tuesday night and pass to the south for
wednesday, bring a brief window of northwest flow. high pressure
will enter from the north behind the front, shifting east on
thursday, bringing light east flow then southeast winds. a
system will approach the lake for the end of the week and
southerly winds will increase on friday. overall, no marine
headlines are expected at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...freeze warning until 11 am edt this morning for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
freeze warning from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt tuesday for
ohz009>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
pa...freeze warning until 11 am edt this morning for paz001>003.
freeze warning from 8 pm this evening to 10 am edt tuesday for
paz001>003.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...77
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 200609
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
209 am edt mon apr 20 2026

.key messages...

- very cold this morning but trending warmer starting tuesday.

- there is a 30% to 40% chance of showers, and perhaps a
thunderstorms, tuesday night. thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms friday.


&&

.discussion...
issued at 209 am edt mon apr 20 2026

very cold this morning with a freeze warning in place. expansive
1028mb high pressure spans from minnesota through the northern
reaches of the ohio valley. light wind today, mostly sunny and high
temperatures creeping toward 50 degrees. high pressure continues its
influence tonight has low temperatures tumble into the 30s once
more. however, a developing southerly wind near 5 to 10 mph may be
enough to limit frost formation.

sharply warmer tuesday through at least friday with high pressure
and upper-level troughing transitioning to somewhat zonal flow
aloft. an orphaned frontal zone drags through the midwest tuesday
night. this front encounters warm, moist flow from the gulf amid
continued southeast us high pressure (significant need for rain in
the carolinas) and sparks scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm for the overnight hours.

an upper-level ridge is maximized overhead thursday when
temperatures near 80 are forecast, before a cold front arrives from
west to east late friday afternoon. upper-level energy with this
system is focused over the upper-great lakes as the parent low
occludes, but a developing secondary 500-mb jet may provide enough
upper-level support for thunderstorms. drier for the weekend with
temperatures closer to more seasonable levels; 60s/40s high/low.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 1237 am edt mon apr 20 2026

with expansive high pressure in place, the inherited tafs were
in great shape. light and variable wind attempts to become
westerly this afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...freeze warning until 11 am edt /10 am cdt/ this morning for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...freeze warning until 11 am edt this morning for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...freeze warning until 11 am edt this morning for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
046
fxus63 kdtx 200638
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
238 am edt mon apr 20 2026

.key messages...

- a freeze warning remains in effect this morning for most of
southeast michigan as lows drop into the mid 20s.

- very dry conditions are expected this afternoon with relative
humidity values dropping to around 30 percent.

- temperatures warm back toward normal tuesday, climbing well above
normal through the rest of the workweek.

- widespread rain chances increase again by friday.

&&

.discussion...

the center of low-midlevel high pressure will push from nw wisconsin
this morning to the western basin of lake erie by this evening. for
today, the forecast area will be located within the eastern flank of
the high pressure in a favorable zone for anticyclonic flow
trajectories and system relative isentropic downglide. outside of
some isolated lake effect cloud in vicinity of lake huron, the
forecast area will largely experience low sky fraction. 850mb
temperatures in the -9 to -13c range will limit highs in the 40s,
some 12 to 15 degrees below normal. notable item is very low rh,
likely falling into the 20s to low 30s percent range.

trough axis gets shoved eastward tonight allowing for moderated
airmass with rapid surface dewpoint recovery (tds of upper 40s to
near 50) by tuesday evening. initial stage of synoptic scale warm
advection could support possible sprinkles in the 10-14z time window
tuesday morning. elevated activity but there is at least some
evidence that the lower levels will dry to saturate. southwest winds
of 15 to 25 mph are expected by late morning and early afternoon as
the large wavelength upper level ridge expands eastward across north
america. a feature to key on will be a relatively narrow higher
thetae plume that will advect through portions of northern indiana
and across far southern lower michigan by the evening. model signal
has been fairly persistent in enough 900-800mb moisture to support a
few hundred j/kg of mucape and possible high based shower activity
for areas south of detroit after 22z tuesday. mass centroid to
surface based high pressure in canada passes east of the
longitude/meridian here for southeast michigan tuesday night. the
combination of increasing anticyclonic flow trajectories at the
surface and a marine release off of the cold great lakes will allow
a shallow cold front to slip south of southeast michigan. therefore,
expecting cooler conditions on wednesday especially for those
locations near lake huron. lakeshore areas may struggle to reach the
50s.

high amplitude ridge then leads to high predictability for
considerable warming thursday and friday. highs are expected to be
in the 70s depending on north to south extent. high solution
variance continues to exist next weekend as a very complex upper
level pattern is being advertised. there has been a ton of agreement
in suggesting closed low/cutoff low potential upstream over the
great plains and upper mississippi river valley. progression of any
cold or occluded fronts will have a major impact on the sensible
weather forecast. most up to date timing of the cold front is late
friday night or saturday. duration of precipitation is very much in
question saturday and sunday.

&&

.marine...

gusty northwest wind will continue to subside through the morning as
high pressure eases in from the west today. small craft advisories
remain in effect along the southern lake huron nearshore waters
until late morning as wave heights will take time to diminish. the
center of the high passes over the central great lakes this
afternoon and evening with southerly return flow commencing tonight
as the high departs east. stronger south to southwest wind will
spread over the region tuesday morning into the early afternoon, and
another round of small craft advisories will be possible. overlake
stability will prevent much of the higher magnitude wind from
reaching the surface, but a period of gusts to 20 to 25 kt looks
likely between 4am and 2pm. a cold front then settles southward
across the region late in the day, bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms by tuesday night, mainly in the south. weaker wind
follows on wednesday as the pressure gradient relaxes again.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1208 am edt mon apr 20 2026

aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through this taf period. high pressure
will establish greater influence early this morning and through the
rest of the day. the result will be dry conditions and light winds.
progression of the high pressure through the great lakes will lead to
winds backing towards the west this afternoon and eventually out of
the south late in the day while remaining light.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...freeze warning until 11 am edt this morning for miz053-060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz421-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...cb
marine.......tf
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.