Lucas and Wood Counties
fxus61 kcle 220804
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
404 am edt mon apr 22 2019
high pressure will remain in place over the upper ohio river
valley today. low pressure over the missouri valley will move
east to the western great lakes by tuesday morning. this low
will continue east into canada and extend a cold front across
the area tuesday evening. high pressure will build over the
midwest for wednesday and thursday.
.near term /through tuesday/...
high pressure at the surface with an upper ridge overhead will
keep the area dry for today. some trapped moisture in far
eastern ohio may present some residual clouds this morning, but
the trend across the area is clear. with a weak pressure
gradient in place, the lake breeze will be in play today, but it
may take some time to develop. believe that the lake breeze will
be through the erie area during the late morning/early
afternoon, but probably won`t get into cleveland until later in
the day. temperatures will be warm today with warm air streaming
in as the upper ridge axis approaches. high temperatures in the
70s seem very reasonable with the highest temperatures expected
west and south. the lake breeze will keep areas like erie and
downtown cleveland cooler as the northerly flow crashes the
the upper ridge axis does not clear the forecast area until around
daybreak on tuesday, and therefore, conditions should remain
dry tonight. for tuesday, a system moving east out of the
central conus will enter the great lakes region and extend a
cold front across the forecast area. there will be shower
activity with the prefrontal trough moving through the forecast
area starting in the late morning. some thunder is possible
especially in areas south and east where there will be more time
for instability to build. with some modest shear in place,
cannot rule out the possibility of a strong thunderstorm, but
wimpy lapse rates will prohibit convection from getting out of
control. converse to monday, temperatures will be warmest south
and east as rain and cloud cover will temper highs in western
.short term /tuesday night through thursday night/...
a cold front will push southeast of the area tuesday night, with
some lingering showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder before
midnight. dry conditions will prevail after midnight as high
pressure builds across the region. the high will remain in place
across the region through at least wednesday or wednesday night.
some model differences lead to more uncertainty in the forecast
beginning wednesday night. the latest gfs keeps ridging over the
region through thursday with dry conditions, while the ecmwf
develops low pressure across the ohio valley and tracks it northeast
across ohio on thursday. the gem resembles the gfs solution, so have
kept towards a drier forecast wednesday and wednesday night, with
some slight chance/low chance pops across the south on thursday. a
cold front is expected to push southeast across the area thursday
night, and although models differ with the timing/strength of the
front, have opted for chance pops in the forecast thursday night.
highs will be a touch cooler on wednesday, with upper 50s to low 60s
expected across most of the area. temperatures will rebound into the
mid to upper 60s thursday, with a few spots reaching 70 not out of
.long term /friday through sunday/...
the flavor of the weekend forecast starts dry, with better chances
for precip during the later part of the weekend. a large area of
high pressure will build across the region friday through saturday,
with mainly dry conditions expected outside of a lingering shower
early friday. models are in general agreement of low pressure moving
into the great lakes region by sunday, although timing/strength
differences preclude any specific detail at this point outside of
slight chance/chance pops saturday night and sunday. highs over the
weekend will generally be in the low to mid 60s.
.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
high pressure over the region this morning has allowed for vfr
conditions to settle in to most area. the lone exception is far
eastern ohio and nw pa, where some trapped low-level moisture
has kept some lower mvfr clouds at kyng and keri. these clouds
have lingered longer than expected and will likely prevent
complete decoupling and fog to develop this morning. have backed
off on fog chances with the clouds and opted for some light
mvfr visibility restrictions. elsewhere, surface
temperatures/dew point differences are several degrees and
probably too high to overcome for significant fog development,
except perhaps kcak if some of this trapped moisture of eastern
ohio can build west. after daybreak, high pressure will be in
control and vfr is expected all day with scattered cloud
coverage. winds will generally be light and variable and a lake
breeze may try to develop at kcle and keri, but there may be
just enough of a pressure gradient to prevent this, so have
omitted from the tafs for now.
outlook...non-vfr possible from late tuesday morning through
wednesday morning with rain showers followed by some low
ceilings and visibilities.
high pressure centered over the lake today will very slowly drift
east through tonight, as low pressure tracks from the upper
mississippi valley today into the northern great lakes by tuesday
morning. this will bring a cold front across the lake late tuesday,
with southwest winds 15-20 knots ahead of the front becoming
northwest 10-15 knots tuesday night into wednesday. high pressure
will bring light/variable winds to the lake wednesday and wednesday
night before another cold front approaches the lake from the
northwest thursday and moves across the lake thursday night. there
could be a brief period of small craft advisory conditions on friday
with northwest flow around 15 knots, otherwise the lake will remain
fairly quiet through the week.
Fulton and Henry Counties
fxus63 kiwx 220805
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
405 am edt mon apr 22 2019
issued at 353 am edt mon apr 22 2019
mild and breezy weather can be expected today with highs in the
70s. a disturbance will approach the region tonight into early
tuesday with low chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
cooler but seasonable conditions will spread back into the area
behind this front for midweek with high temperatures in the low to
mid 60s for wednesday.
.short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 353 am edt mon apr 22 2019
quiet and mild weather in store for today, with just low chances
of showers/isolated storm tonight into tuesday.
upper level ridge to slowly drift across the great lakes/ohio valley
today with preference to large scale subsidence at least through
the first half of the day. an upper level short wave emerging from
the central plains this morning will be the feature to watch in
terms of precip chances tonight. low level height gradient to
increase today as associated sfc low pressure tracks across
central iowa this afternoon. tightening gradient and weak to
modest sfc pressure falls downstream of this wave will promote
strengthening south winds today. a few gusts close to 30 mph will
be possible across nw indiana/sw lower michigan this afternoon.
low level mixing and persistent low level warm advection should
allow afternoon highs well into the 70s across all of the area
with warmest temps in the upper 70s across the far west.
relatively moist ground and mixed layer depths of 3-4k feet may
end up preventing optimal temperature potential from being realized
today, and exact mixed layer depth/timing of high cloud increase
will determine extent of warming. even with somewhat limited mixed
layer depths today, enough dry low level air should mix down to
surface to partially offset level moisture advection and not
allow dew points to make significant upward progress this
afternoon. thus, have generally put more weight on lower envelope
of guidance in regards to dew points this afternoon.
combination of temps in 70s, dewpoints in the 40s, and
gusty winds of 15 to 25 mph would typically pose some fire weather
concerns. fuel moistures are still somewhat on the high side with
recent rainfall. this should prevent more significant fire
weather concerns but will highlight potential of min afternoon
relative humidities dropping to below 30 percent this afternoon in
this mornings fire weather forecast.
mid/high clouds increase later this afternoon into this evening as
upstream short wave approaches the western great lakes. an axis of
strong low level theta-e advection will shift from west to east
this evening. a good deal of dry low level air will be in place
initially, but would suspect at least potential of enough elevated
instability by 03z for low end shower chances across northwest
half of the area. a plume of very steep mid level lapse rates of
8-9 deg c/km is expected to advect across the area later this
evening in advance of this wave, and if sufficient elevated
moisture can be realized, could have a few more vigorous elevated
updrafts and isolated thunder potential late evening into the
early portion of the overnight hours. elevated instability axis
preceding the front will be relatively narrow and progressive and
iso thunder potential should be confined to far southeast
locations by daybreak tuesday. will continue to keep pops in the
20-40 percent range for tonight-tuesday with no significant impact
to ongoing minor river flooding concerns expected. daytime
frontal timing will result in steady/falling temperatures for most
locations tuesday afternoon.
.long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 353 am edt mon apr 22 2019
lack of forcing will characterize the midweek period as primary
negative height anomaly becomes cut off across southwest conus and
weaker northern stream exerts more influence locally. a
progressive, weak, positively-tilted northern stream wave will
approach for thursday, but moisture availability will be in
question with nothing more than low chance shower mention across
primarily northern locations. seasonable temps for wed should give
way to slightly above normal temps for thursday ahead of this
feature. some trend noted in medium range model dprog/dt of
perhaps stronger northern stream pacific wave for the weekend,
with another fropa and additional low chances of showers at this
.aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z monday night)
issued at 1205 am edt mon apr 22 2019
return flow was underway with winds from the southeast. fwa`s
crossover temperature was around 46 degrees and should be reached
by late tonight. have kept a mvfr mention of tempo fog there;
otherwise, vfr conditions will prevail through the taf period.
the gradient will tighten up later today and cause some gusty
winds with daytime mixing.
lm...small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt
tuesday for lmz043-046.
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Monroe and Lenawee Counties
fxus63 kdtx 220701
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
301 am edt mon apr 22 2019
highs of 75-80 in n il along the eastern periphery of the incoming
h85 thermal ridge are a good first cut for forecast highs in se
michigan today. backed surface wind will suppress mixing heights
east of the glacial ridge and in the immediate lake shadows where
highs will be limited to 50s along the immediate shoreline improving
to 60s further inland. otherwise mid 70s expected under mostly sunny
skies with modest filtering of sun from high clouds. unmodified
fetch and downsloping has the warmest forecast points in the saginaw
valley where 80 will be achievable. the bulk of convective debris
will remain west during the daylight hours. axis of modest elevated
instability will sweep through the area roughly 09-14z accompanied
by shallow moisture and decent dynamic support mainly north of i-69
with weaker forcing and veered flow to the south. nothing more than
a chc pop during this period to account for a partial coverage of
weak updrafts, a few of which may produce a rumble of thunder early
tues. cold advection and confluent nw flow aloft will scour out
clouds from west to east on tuesday, supporting full sun to end the
day as h85 temps fall toward 0c. insolation will be sufficient to
limit temperature falls until at least mid-aftn before quickly
falling through the 60s, 50s, and eventually 40s overnight.
unremarkable pattern from mid-week onward as zonal mean baroclinic
westerlies continue to retreat north, supporting occl low
predictability precip chances as temperatures oscillate about
mostly favorable marine conditions with no significant wind events
expected during the upcoming week. moderate breeze out of the se
will pick up today in advance of an approaching low pressure system.
this low will track through the straits by tuesday morning, sending
a cold front across the region during the daylight period. this
frontal boundary will bring a chance of thunderstorms during this
time. southerly winds veering to northwesterly with the frontal
passage, briefly reaching 20 to 25 knots at times. modest northwest
winds will prevail through wednesday.
issued at 1157 pm edt sun apr 21 2019
vfr conditions through much of monday with high static stability
from the surface through 10 kft agl. varying mid to high cloud
anticipated tonight and likely through monday with anticyclonic wave
break region setting up over the western great lakes. light and
variable winds tonight will emerge light southerly monday.
precipitation associated with next low pressure system will remain
upstream until monday night as flow will be slow to become cyclonic.
dtw threshold probabilities...
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
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The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.