Lucas and Wood Counties
fxus61 kcle 230736
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
336 am edt sat jun 23 2018
low pressure over far northwest ohio will continue to slowly
push eastward today. this low will move north of lake erie
tonight and reach the new england states by sunday. a surface
trough will move across the area behind the low on sunday. high
pressure will build southeast across the great lakes behind this
trough and settle over the region for monday and tuesday.
.near term /through sunday/...
low pressure continues to creep slowly through the midwest and
is now over far northwestern ohio with a warm extending to the
east, now north of lake erie. scattered residual showers and
isolated thunderstorms remain this morning across portions of
the forecast area but once this round of convection moves north
of the area, there will be a good period with minimal convection
this morning. as the low continues closer to the area and
daytime heating this afternoon, generally expect for convection
to fire back up with scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the area. not expecting today to be a washout by any means but
just like friday, everyone will see rain at some point and
several spots will get a couple rumbles of thunder. while there
isn`t too much to key onto for today`s convection, several of
the hi-res, near term guidance suggests an enhanced area of
convergence over ne ohio and nw pa, particularly as the low move
north of the area this afternoon. therefore, have the highest
pops and qpf for this area.
with the loss of daytime heating and the forcing of the low,
convection should significantly diminish at sunset with some
residual showers lingering about ne ohio and nw pa. the next
round of rain will come on sunday with a surface trough moving
across the area. this trough isn`t all that strong so not sure
how robust convection will get going on sunday... thinking that
the best chances are east at this point, closer to the departing
low. temperatures will be a bit cooler than normal as there is
plenty of rain and cloud cover to keep temperatures down.
.short term /sunday night through tuesday night/...
model differences continue in the short term period. the gfs
appears to be suffering from convective feedback so confidence is
pretty low today. a few showers are possible downwind of lake erie
on sunday evening but those should be gone by early monday. monday
and monday night will be quiet as high pressure passes to the north
resulting in dry easterly flow. temperatures will average a little
below normal on monday. model differences really start to show up
on tuesday. the gfs pushes showers and thunderstorms into the area
late monday night as low pressure moves over the western lakes
forcing a warm front into the area. just got a look at the new ecmwf
and it remains much slower with the main features and precip. will
keep tuesday morning dry and bring chances to the west third of the
area by 00z wed. better chances for thunderstorms exist tuesday
night. temperatures tuesday will get back a little above normal.
.long term /wednesday through friday/...
it`s going to get warm and humid by the end of the period. a weak
cold front will settle over the region on wednesday. scattered
showers and storms are likely as the front moves through. there will
not be a true airmass change behind the front and by early thursday
the flow will be back to the sw and the warm up will begin.
temperatures will push into the upper 80s some areas thursday with
dew points around 70 degrees. add a couple degrees to that for
friday and expect some areas to add to their tally of 90 degree
days. will keep both thursday and friday dry for now but certainly
cannot rule out a few pop up storms...especially friday.
.aviation /06z saturday through wednesday/...
low pressure over indiana has extended a warm front north of
lake erie, allowing for the area to be in the warm sector. some
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms linger in the area
with one cluster in the region near ktol and kfdy and another
cluster in the vicinity of kcak. have timed in precipitation to
ktol, kfdy, kcak, and kyng based on current radar trend.
generally, the mixed bag of vfr to ifr will lower across the
area to mvfr at the lakeshore areas with the downslope se flow
at kcle and keri, but the remaining terminals will likely see
ifr at some point before dawn.
as for redevelopment of convection later today, the low is
slowly moving northeast and will be the primary forcing for
redevelopment. however, with the area in the warm sector could
see showers and thunderstorms develop pretty much anywhere. with
nothing to key on for precise timing but believe that all
terminals will see rain and non-vfr conditions at some point,
have a broad vicinity mention with prob30s for the best
thunderstorm chances. winds will generally be light and
southerly for the first half of the taf period ahead of the low
and as the low moves northeast of the area, winds will shift
around to the west. keri will have some stronger
southerly/southeasterly winds to start with gusts to 25 knots
possible over the next couple hours. winds will relax at keri as
the flow shifts around to the southwest and then the west.
outlook...non-vfr conditions possible on sunday in any showers
east to southeast flow continues on the lake early this morning.
that should change this morning as low pressure along the in/oh
border moves northeast to near detroit. a warm front from the low
will lift north of the lake by 18z with s to sw expected. speeds
will generally be in the 10 to 15 knot range so will not need any
headlines. the low will linger over or just north of the lake
tonight into sunday morning before finally moving off to the east
later in the day. a cold front trailing the low will push south by
late in the day causing the flow to become nw to n. speeds again
should remain under 15 knots. by daybreak monday the flow will be
ne as high pressure builds in from the north. the high will move
off to the east monday night causing the flow to take on a southerly
component. lot`s of uncertainty exists in the models after that but
it appears another warm front will lift north across the lake late
tuesday or tuesday night with resulting southerly flow. this will
be followed by a weak cold front on wednesday.
Fulton and Henry Counties
fxus63 kiwx 231049
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
649 am edt sat jun 23 2018
issued at 401 am edt sat jun 23 2018
lower chances of showers and storms will persist during the day
time hours, but mainly dry conditions are expected by sunday.
overnight low temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 60s.
highs on today will reach into the middle and upper 70s.
.short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 401 am edt sat jun 23 2018
upper low was centered near ft wayne as of 730z, continuing to
slowly move slowly northeast. by in large the bulk of the precip
has ended with the exception of 2 areas. one weakening area was
moving into far se lower michigan with the other a persistent area
of showers in the immediate vicinity of the upper low. instability
has waned enough to pretty much eliminate any thunder. the upper
low and associated sfc feature will continue to move northeast
today into se lower michigan. showers and a few storms will remain
possible into this afternoon mainly across eastern areas of the
forecast area. locally heavy rain would still pose the main
threat, but most likely much of this concern will be north of the
area. clouds will slowly clear as we get into later this afternoon
and this evening. most locations will start to see somewhat warmer
temps, but still remain below normal in the middle to upper 70s.
lows will fall off in the lower 60s with showers coming to an end
.long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 401 am edt sat jun 23 2018
modest warm up will start on sunday, mainly from greater amount
of sunshine and mixing of warmer temps aloft that has been
generally stifled with all the clouds and precip past few days.
models vary on exactly how much we warm with gfs more aggressive
on warming sunday into monday with highs well into the 80s vs
cooler nam in the upr 70s. with main warm front still a bit south
of the area will lean on the slightly cooler end of guidance. next
trough will enter the region starting monday night and persisting
into weds as it makes slow eastward progress. abundant moisture
and modest instability will accompany the system resulting in
several chances for showers and thunderstorms with specific timing
still muddled. non-zero severe threat does exist in this window,
but much like this past week heavy rain may play a bigger factor.
once the wave departs, upper level heights will increase with
ridging taking hold forcing temperatures back to near or above 90 as
we move towards the weekend. higher dewpoints will return to make
for rather unpleasant conditions. can`t rule out a stray shower or
storm, but think capping will hold things in place with main focus
well north of the area.
.aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z sunday morning)
issued at 613 am edt sat jun 23 2018
lifr conditions for the start of the 12z taf cycle as low stratus
on the backside of the upper low moves in. light showers have also
moved into the kfwa terminal to drop visibility to 1/2sm. this
lowered visibility should improve quickly at the start of this taf
cycle but remain in the 2sm to 3sm range. the general trend of the
forecast is gradually improving ceilings and visibility throughout
the day as the upper low moves northeast of the area. given the
residual low level moisture, another round of mvfr
ceilings/visibilities could be possible after 03z sunday.
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Monroe and Lenawee Counties
fxus63 kdtx 231102
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
702 am edt sat jun 23 2018
challenging forecast through the taf period as a broad and slow-
moving low pressure system tracks northeast across southeast
michigan. occasional showers will accompany the low, especially this
morning with slightly less coverage this afternoon with decreased
forcing on the northwest flank of the system. coverage remains
difficult to pinpoint, but confidence is fairly high that all taf
sites will see periodic activity. confidence is even lower in
thunderstorm occurrence and timing, as daytime heating/instability
will be predicated on/if low clouds can sufficiently break up this
afternoon. will leave out of the tafs at this time and continue to
monitor near term trends in cloud coverage. ifr/mvfr ceilings will
prevail this morning, with the expectation of daytime heating and
boundary layer mixing to slowly lift ceilings to high end mvfr/low
end vfr roughly 17z-20z. lingering abundant low-level moisture will
likely result in a re-lowering of ceilings potentially to ifr after
00z. with the low passing over the region, winds will be light and
variable for most of the period, with a gradual trend to w/nw flow
as the low departs east except for kmbs and kfnt where winds should
trend more n/ne with the broad cyclonic flow.
for dtw...the low risk and difficult timing of any thunderstorms
continues to prevent inclusion in the forecast for now. ifr/mvfr
ceilings will continue to pose the biggest issue through the period,
with the expectation for a window of vfr conditions 18z-00z. a
reduction of ceilings appears likely again after 00z with lingering
moisture. southwest runway ops are preferred with light and variable
flow and low potential of ne winds occuring long enough to reach 7
.dtw threshold probabilities...
* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less through entire period.
* low for thunderstorms in occurrence and timing.
* low for ceiling 200 ft or less through the morning.
issued at 304 am edt sat jun 23 2018
the mid level circulation over the oh/in border as of 06z will lift
across toledo around 12z this morning before slowly lifting
northeastward across metro detroit late morning/early afternoon. a
mid level impulse circulating around the upper low has been lifting
into the thumb region overnight, forcing a little better region of
enhanced lift/isentropic ascent. this has resulted in more
widespread showers across the thumb northward across lake huron.
while this region of showers will slowly lift northward this
morning, a secondary axis of higher mid level theta e air will push
into metro detroit with the approach of the mid level low, leading
to an increase in coverage of showers. the upper low is forecast to
slowly open as it exits east of the area this afternoon. this will
support some degree of mid level height rises across se mi.
with the approach of the associated sfc low, there has been an
increase in low level moisture overnight, causing sfc dewpoints to
rise into the 60s. the sfc low will drift across metro detroit this
afternoon. despite the cloud cover, daytime heating will boost
afternoon temps into the 70s. this will result in the development of
weak daytime instability, limited by rather shallow mid level lapse
rates. this will support the development of scattered convection,
with the greatest coverage across the eastern portions of the
forecast area. storm strength will be hindered by both the weak mid
level wind fields and limited instability. moisture quality will be
adequate to support some heavier downpours, providing at least a
potential of locally higher rain totals given the slow storm
movement. boundary layer convergence will persist across se mi well
into the evening as a sfc trough axis lingers across the area as the
sfc low heads east. the mid level height rises should prove a
limiting factor on late afternoon/evening convective development,
warranting just scattered type pops.
model solutions indicate some development/amplification in a mid
level short wave trough axis forecast to slide across lower michigan
late tonight through sunday. this will support a chance of some
showers along the remnant sfc trough/cold front which will slowly
slide south across the area during the day. the potential for some
afternoon destabilization will support a slight chance of some
thunder, mainly south of the i-69 corridor on sunday. lake modified
air within the north-northeast winds behind this front will lead to
relatively cool conditions across much of the thumb and
mid level ridging will expand across the great lakes sun night into
monday as the long wave pattern undergoes amplification, with a long
wave trough set to extend across ern canada and new england. sfc high
pressure will then be driven across the northern and ern great
lakes, leading to much drier conditions across the area. medium
range model solutions break this pattern down rather quickly, with a
mid level wave set to rotate from the upper midwest across the nrn
great lakes tues night. this will drive a warmer, more moist and
unstable airmass across lower mi tues into tues night, supporting
the next chance for showers/thunderstorms. a warming trend looks
likely during the latter end of the week as mid level ridging
expands across the ohio valley (and possibly into the srn great
broad and weak low pressure will continue to slowly move
northeastward across lower michigan today and into tonight. winds
will become light and variable across much of the local waters with
the low passage except for modest northeasterly flow across northern
and central lake huron generally below 15 knots. scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage. light
north/northeasterly flow less than 20 knots in the wake of the
departing low pressure will become established across the local
waters sunday and into monday as dry high pressure builds south
across the great lakes.
occasional showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue across
southeast michigan through today as low pressure moves northeast
across the region. rainfall amounts will generally be a quarter of
an inch or less, although locally higher amounts will be possible
within thunderstorm activity. widespread flooding is not
anticipated, although minor poor drainage flooding of susceptible
areas will be possible within any thunderstorms. scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms may linger into sunday as well with
additional light rainfall possible. drier air will work into the
region late sunday and into monday as high pressure builds across
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
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The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.