Toledo Weather


Lucas and Wood Counties

fxus61 kcle 062304

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
701 pm edt tue jun 6 2023

high pressure will build over the region tonight and persist
through the first half of the weekend. a cold front will move
southeast across the local area on sunday.


.near term /through wednesday night/...
high pressure will build over the region tonight through the
near term period. although dry weather is expected, there are
two items of concern: smoke/haze and an elevated fire risk.

much of the area has been reporting haze with reduced visibility
and a broken/overcast cloud deck, which is thanks to smoke
moving across the area from wildfires over quebec. expect
the smoke to generally push south of the area after sunset this
evening, however another batch of smoke will most likely move
into the eastern half of the area later tonight as a vort max
pushes south across the area. this smoke is expected to linger
across the area into wednesday, so another hazy day is likely.

fire weather conditions will be a bit more favorable on
wednesday with minimum rh values of 20 to 30% anticipated across
most of the area during wednesday afternoon. similar to
today, smoke/opaque cloud cover may limit daytime heating and
reduce the fire weather risk, but it will be drier with breezy
winds so will need to monitor over the next 12-18 hours. spc
places the northern 2/3 of the cwa in an elevated fire weather
outlook area.

low temps tonight and wednesday night will fall into the mid to
upper 40s to lower 50s with the warmest temps forecast along
the lakeshore. expect highs in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s
on wednesday.


.short term /thursday through friday night/...
more of the same cool, mostly dry, and smoky weather will continue
thursday and friday as an amplified pattern remains in place
characterized by a broad mid/upper ridge over the rockies and plains
and a large closed mid/upper low over the ne conus. this will keep a
northerly flow of cool air across the region, with smoke from
numerous wildfires in ontario and quebec streaming down across the
great lakes and ohio valley. smoke plume forecasts from the href
suggest that some of the thickest smoke may occur around thursday
morning, so visibilities below 5 miles and an overall hazy look to
the sky will continue to be a problem at times. this will also
reduce air quality. cannot rule out a few showers in nw pa and far
ne ohio thursday through friday, especially with daytime heating, as
mid-level moisture rotates around the west side of the mid/upper
low, but the dry low-level airmass will keep these isolated, so kept
pops below the blended forecasts. highs thursday and friday will
only reach the upper 60s/low 70s in nw pa and most of ne ohio, with
low/mid 70s in north central and nw ohio. lows will dip into the
upper 40s/low 50s thursday night and low/mid 50s friday night, with
some upper 40s continuing in far ne ohio and nw pa friday night.


.long term /saturday through tuesday/...
still looks like the best chance for rain that we have had in 3
weeks will come this weekend. the old mid/upper low over the ne
conus will exit saturday ahead of a strong shortwave trough diving
into the upper midwest. slight height rises and warm air advection
ahead of this shortwave will boost highs into the upper 70s/low 80s
saturday, and the low-level flow turning more sw should also shunt
some of the wildfire smoke out of the area. deterministic guidance
and the model blend wants to develop showers well ahead of the front
for saturday, but dew points will struggle to rise much out of the
40s due to the very dry ground, and the best forcing holds off until
late saturday night and sunday, so only brought in slight chance
pops for nw ohio saturday afternoon. as the aforementioned mid/upper
shortwave digs into the western great lakes saturday night and
sunday, an associated cold front will slowly sag toward the region.
the right entrance region of the associated jet may develop a weak
surface low along the frontal boundary, and this would be the best
hope for widespread rain, but it would also slow down the front and
best rain chances until later sunday and sunday night. guidance is
indeed trending slower, although there is still uncertainty, with
the gfs being the most progressive. for this forecast, kept the
blend which has chance pops saturday night increasing to likely
sunday afternoon, but the best rain may arrive sunday evening into
sunday night if trends continue. scattered showers will then linger
monday through tuesday as the trough looks to evolve into a cut off
low across the great lakes or ohio valley. this will keep elevated
moisture around with showers blossoming during daytime heating.
despite these better rain chances, qpf may stay until 1 inch for
most areas between sunday and tuesday since model guidance tends to
over-forecast dew points in drought situations. so this rain will
not be a drought buster; it will just temporarily slow down the
developing drought.


.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
primarily vfr and fair weather are expected through 00z/thurs as a
surface high pressure ridge centered near hudson bay builds into our
area. northwesterly to northeasterly regional surface winds around 5
to 10 knots likely persist. aloft, cyclonic and predominantly
northwesterly to northerly flow is forecast to persist. this flow
should continue to transport variable amounts of smoke over our area
from wildfires in southern qc and especially central on. the smoke
should primarily be confined in a layer from ~5kft to ~30kft above
msl. however, diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer may be
deep enough to mix-down some smoke and reduce surface visibility to
mvfr between ~15z/wed and ~00z/thurs. confidence in surface
visibility being reduced to mvfr is low, though. of note, cirriform
cloud cover ahead of a disturbance aloft will likely exit our region
generally to the south by 06z/wed.

outlook...non-vfr possible in periodic rain showers and
thunderstorms this thursday through weekend.


n winds will increase to 15-20 knots on the western and central
basins of lake erie behind a cold front tonight building waves to 2
to 5 feet, so expanded the small craft advisory and beach hazards
statement to ottawa county for these winds, waves, and risk of rip
currents. a moderate risk of rip currents will continue offshore of
lake county. otherwise, n winds will quickly decrease to 5-10 knots
wednesday before briefly increasing to 15-20 knots again wednesday
night. nnw winds of 10-15 knots are then expected thursday
decreasing to 5-10 knots by friday. winds then become sw at 10-15
knots by saturday before turning e at 10-15 knots sunday.


.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 4 am edt wednesday for ohz007-
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt wednesday for lez143>146.


near term...maines
short term...garuckas
long term...garuckas

Fulton and Henry Counties

fxus63 kiwx 061957

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
357 pm edt tue jun 6 2023

issued at 326 pm edt tue jun 6 2023

scattered showers are likely this afternoon and tonight; mainly west
of interstate 69. nearly all amounts should be less than 5 hundredths
of an inch. dry and somewhat cooler weather will follow wednesday
and thursday before warmer and more unsettle weather arrives for
the weekend. there is a much better chance for rain this weekend.
rainfall amounts have the potential to reach one inch by early
next week.


.short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 326 pm edt tue jun 6 2023

an upper level system will move south across the area today and
tonight. somewhat of a surge of moisture was associated ahead of
this system with precipitable water values rising to over 1 inch.
upper level jet dynamics were favorable for shower development.
some of the cams were generating heavier bands of showers given
this upper level support. except for isolated heavier amounts,
precipitation should be less than 0.05". otherwise, drier air with
breezy conditions will develop thursday with lowest rh values
dropping to 20 percent during the afternoon. it does look like
there is an elevated risk for field fires, especially grasses with
shallow roots that have dried out. have mentioned these concerns
in the hazardous weather outlook.


.long term...(thursday night through tuesday)
issued at 326 pm edt tue jun 6 2023

a large blocking ridge upstream will allow an upper level trof to
persist over far east canada into the northeast united states into
late this week. energy in the form of a short wave trof will
eventually top the ridge and help deepen the low over the upper
great lakes region causing an upper low to form early next week.
the general trend has been for more rainfall from saturday
afternoon through monday. cips analogs showed low confidence and
an immense spread among solutions. have raised rain chances
favoring the spectral solutions of the ec and gfs. current
thinking is rainfall amounts will generally be between 0.50 and
1.00 inch.


.aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z wednesday afternoon)
issued at 111 pm edt tue jun 6 2023

short wave energy moving down in northwest flow aloft currently
generating area of showers moving into southern lake michigan to
begin this taf cycle. a couple of the href members have this
holding together as it passes through the area this
afternoon/evening despite very dry boundary/low will
include a tempo group for both sites. upstream obs have vfr
ceilings where precip is occurring so do not anticipate much if
any impact at either site other than possible mvfr visibilities at
ksbn. surface cold front pushing southward will have northerly
winds behind it prevailing through the period...backing from n/nw
to ne.


.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...skipper
long term...skipper

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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

fxus63 kdtx 062249

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
649 pm edt tue jun 6 2023


the loss in diurnal heating this evening will allow a decrease in
the northerly winds to under 7 knots around or shortly after
midnight. otherwise, light northerly winds will persist through the
night and during the day wednesday. the persistent northerly winds
will allow smoke from ongoing wildfires just north of lake huron to
advance across se mi tonight. there has been some mvfr based sfc
visibility restrictions along lake huron due to this smoke. there is
some concern that this smoke may lead to minor visibility
restrictions further inland, just not enough certainty drop forecast
visibility at the terminals attm.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.


.prev discussion...
issued at 345 pm edt tue jun 6 2023


morning cold front is now well south of the state-line establishing
cooler, drier northerly flow over se mi. skies clear from north to
south over the course of the evening as said front pushes deeper
into the ohio valley and canadian high pressure slowly sinks into
the great lakes. given dewpoints in the upper 30s/40f, mostly clear
skies (aside of elevated canadian wildfire smoke), and persistent
northerly caa expect a much cooler night ahead as lows drop into the
low to mid 40s for most of the region outside of detroit.

seasonably average to slightly below average temperatures hold
through thursday as an expansive upper trough over the northeast us
overspreads the central great lakes atop the aforementioned broad
canadian surface high. warming trends return by friday as the upper
level trough retracts back toward the eastern seaboard allowing west-
northwesterly flow to redevelop. resultant local 850mb temps rebound
back to around 10c supporting highs back in the upper 70s to low 80s
to finish the week/start the weekend.

pattern change arrives this weekend as the omega block present over
the conus begins to break down. ridging over the plains is squeezed
west toward the rockies by a consolidating mid-upper level shortwave
ejecting out of northern canada. upper wave undergoes rapid
amplification/deepening as it arrives over the great lakes offering
the area`s first appreciable rain chances late saturday into sunday.
this far out, exact details remain nebulous in terms of duration,
coverage, and intensities with these points to be ironed out as we
get closer. one interesting note that will be something to keep an
eye on, nearly every 12z deterministic model run has converged on
the development of a cutoff, closed low over the great lakes/ohio
valley at the start of next week as the central conus ridging
collapses. ensemble space (eps, gefs, cmc) also advertising this
closed low signal with main variations among members/ensemble means
owing to the speed of the wave break (31% variance) and to a lesser
extent wave amplitude differences (18% variance). a slower wave
break leads to a further east cutoff development over either the
eastern great lakes or northeast us leading to shorter period of
rain locally (favored by the gfs/gefs). if the faster break occurs,
the cutoff forms near or over se mi supporting a prolonged period of
rain chances through the first half of the week (favored by
euro/canadian families).


combination of high pressure to the north over hudson bay and low
pressure over the northeast conus will result in continued northerly
flow across the eastern lakes through thursday. winds have been
largely below 20 knots today but the persistent flow has built wave
heights to around 4 feet resulting in small craft advisories for
this evening. another afternoon of marginal wave heights thursday
for southern lake huron near port huron. at this point waves stay
just below criteria and only peak for a few hours so will not issue
another small craft at this time. the pressure gradient weakens
thursday as the high settles more over the region. this will allow
lighter winds to hold across the waters through the end of the week.

fire weather...

today marks the 17th consecutive day of rain-free conditions for
much of southeast michigan with no real chances through the
remainder of the workweek. overall weather conditions too marginal
to issue a red flag warning for today or wednesday, as temperatures
hold under the necessary requirement across northern areas while
winds remain light enough across the south. with that, soil moisture
continues to decrease with very dry fine fuels as cffdrs - conifer
ratings range from very high to extreme over the next several days.
spc fire has also taken note of the extended dry stretch and ongoing
wildfires near graying, thus an elevated fire risk has been
outlooked across portions of lower michigan for both today and

be sure to follow local laws or ordinances in place regarding
burning for your location. if you must burn, ensure that the fire is
constantly monitored and several options are available to quickly
extinguish the fire should it become uncontrolled. contact your
local fire department with any questions and for instances where
fire control is lost.


.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.


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The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.