Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
449
fxus61 kcle 290802
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
402 am edt sun jun 29 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure will persist through the afternoon before a warm front
lifts north this evening into the overnight hours. a cold front will
move east monday night before high pressure returns for tuesday and
wednesday. another cold front will sag south across the area late
wednesday into thursday.

&&

.near term /through monday/...
4 am update...
observations across the southeastern tier of counties has shown
quickly diminishing visibilities due to fog developing and
advecting over the area. some stations, including akron, have
dropped to 1/16sm. as a result, a dense fog advisory has been
issued until 13z for counties including morrow and extending
east to mahoning. will continue to monitor the trend in fog
development and if any additional headlines may be needed
further north.

previous discussion...
high pressure has built over the area this morning as a cold
front sags south towards the ohio river. a stabilizing
atmosphere with clear skies is allowing for temperatures to cool
rather efficiently with temperatures already in the upper 60s
to low 70s. given the fairly wet soil conditions, there should
be enough near surface moisture to result in a decent area of
fog developing, especially along and south of us30. will have to
monitor visibilities trends in the coming hours for the need of
any headlines.

for the remainder of today, high pressure will remain dominant,
allowing for dry conditions to persist with mostly sunny skies.
tonight, low pressure over eastern ontario will move a warm front
north across the area. behind this boundary, the return of waa and a
moist airmass will result in the return of muggy conditions across
the area. in addition, as diurnal instability increases to 2000+ j/g
late monday morning into the afternoon and isentropic ascent
increases, showers and thunderstorms should become widespread across
the area. there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to the
severe potential as the best mesoscale support is disjointed with
the best synoptic support, but cannot rule out locally gusty winds.
in addition, pwat values are expected to surge to nearly 2" again,
which coupled with deepening warm cloud layers will allow for very
efficient and heavy rainfall. given the already saturated conditions
across the area from recent heavy rainfall, cannot rule out
additional localized flooding concerns. spc and wpc have highlighted
these concerns with a marginal risk of severe weather and in the
ero.

high temperatures today and monday will climb into the mid 80s to
low 90s. areas that receive rainfall on monday will likely be a
degree or two cooler than currently forecast. overnight lows tonight
will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.short term /monday night through wednesday night/...
monday night, an upper level trough axis is expected to push across
the area, moving an accompanying cold front east across the area.
showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through tuesday
morning, gradually tapering west to east overnight. given the
stronger support accompanying this frontal passage, cannot rule out
a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, but the primary
concern will continue to be efficient and heavy rainfall. behind
this departing boundary on tuesday, high pressure will build
southeast over the area and persist through wednesday night. this
will allow for dry conditions to return to the entire area for the
bulk of the short term period. given the northern origin of the
high, temperatures will return to more seasonal with highs in the
low to mid 80s. the mugginess will also subside a bit with dew
points lingering in the low 60s through the period. overnight lows
will be a bit cooler, dropping into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.long term /thursday through saturday/...
an upper level trough is expected to traverse the region at the
start of the long term period, moving a cold front southeast across
the area on thursday. models are not in great agreement with the
progression of this late week system, so opted to cap pop potential
at slight chance, especially in the afternoon hours, but will need
to continue to monitor model evolution to get a better handle on the
potential impact to the area. for friday and saturday, there remains
a potential for diurnally driven showers and storms across the area
given a lingering upper level trough, but again confidence is fairly
low at this point. temperatures are expected to gradually warm
through the period from low 80s to near 90. overnight lows will
linger in the 60s.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
high pressure across the region will promote clearing skies with
dry weather through the taf period. the main concern will be
later this morning, as the atmosphere will decouple under clear
skies with ample low level moisture. there will be the
opportunity for at least mvfr visibility at all terminals during
the pre-dawn hours. for kmfd, kcak, and kyng, there is high
confidence in reduced visibilities reaching at least the ifr
category, if not lower with some locally dense fog. therefore,
have continued to hit these terminals the hardest with impacts,
but have backed off slightly as some minor clouds may abate
getting well into the lifr category. fog will mix out after dawn
and light south to southwest winds will be favored today with
generally clear conditions. a lake breeze will flip the wind
directions at keri and kcle late this morning into early
afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr possible with showers and thunderstorms late
monday through early tuesday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over the great lakes region should allow for light
and variable flow and waves less than a foot today. a warm front
will cross the lake tonight and south to southwest flow around
10 kts will be favored over the lake for monday. a cold front
will cross the lake on monday night into tuesday and shift winds
to the west around 10 kts but perhaps briefly to 15 kts. waves
will build over the eastern half of the lake to 2 ft but there
could be closer to 3 ft if some 15 kt winds can persist. high
pressure will enter for wednesday and continue the west flow on
the lake but largely 10 kts or less and waves under 2 ft. a cold
front will cross the lake on thursday and winds will shift to
the northwest behind the system. high pressure and variable flow
over the lake is expected for friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...dense fog advisory until 9 am edt this morning for ohz029>033-
037-038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...04
near term...04
short term...04
long term...04
aviation...sefcovic
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
367
fxus63 kiwx 291023
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
623 am edt sun jun 29 2025

.key messages...

- slightly warmer and more humid this afternoon with heat
indicies in the low to mid 90s.

- chances for showers and storms return through monday, focused
mainly on mid monday morning into monday evening. locally
heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main concerns.

- seasonable highs in the 80s dominate much of the upcoming
week, with somewhat lower humidity values.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 410 am edt sun jun 29 2025

warm front will begin to edge back north today, allowing for
afternoon highs to reach the upper 80s to near 90 even along the
lakeshore areas of lk mi. 70+ dewpoints are not too far away and
will slowly edge northeast into tonight. instability will begin to
increase, but triggers will be very limited with any minimal chances
for a pop up shower/storms confined to areas south of us-24 (into
the 70+ dewpoints) and maybe along the lake shore areas of laporte
county as a weak lake breeze may form and hug the coast. maintained
a slgt chc pop in far south/southwest this afternoon but suspect
this may even be overdone. lull in chances occurs most, if not all
of tonight before subtle disturbances potentially allow for widely
scattered shower/storm development monday morning as instability
increases from more widespread 70 dewpoints. better chances
arrive monday afternoon during peak heating, but lack of defined
trigger areas still exists before the main cold front arrives
late afternoon into the evening. overall atmosphere will be
similar to end of last week with more of a pulse nature to
storms and some potential for limited organization as best shear
and dynamics lag the cold front. as mentioned in past
discussions, model blend has been extremely overdone with pops
monday afternoon (80-95%) with above concerns warranted a
consensus to cap pops at likely. a few spots may see some
localized strong to severe wind gusts (spc dy2 marginal risk-
level 1 of 5) maintained, but locally heavy rain appears a
greater threat with pwats 1.75" to over 2" and a rather weak
overall flow.

cold front will sweep through by 6z tue with dry conditions expected
into friday with seasonable temperatures in the 80s and lower
humidity. diurnal shower/storm chances may increase for the
holiday weekend as moisture increases, but lack of strong
triggers or dynamics should limit coverage and intensity.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 620 am edt sun jun 29 2025

existing tafs remain on track amid high pressure over the
eastern great lakes. wind less than 10 knots today. very late in
the taf period, there could be increasing mid and high clouds
from any lingering thunderstorm activity over il and wi.
guidance diverges significantly in how any showers/storms may
limp into northwest in by daybreak monday. the better chance for
showers and storms at ksbn or kfwa is not until monday
afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
654
fxus63 kdtx 290939
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
539 am edt sun jun 29 2025

.key messages...

- warm and humid conditions return today with highs near 90 degrees.
heat indices monday afternoon will be near 90 degrees.

- showers and thunderstorms are likely on monday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening. there is a marginal risk of severe weather
for portions of southeast michigan.

- classic summer weather pattern during the middle to end of the
week with daytime temperatures well into the 80s.

&&

.aviation...

all taf sites are still reporting p6sm vsbys this morning, despite
patchy fog elsewhere in the airspace. any br/fg development at this
point will be brief with sunrise already well underway. high
pressure currently located over lake erie affords another dry and vfr
forecast period, with the only cloud nearby coming from the mcs well
to our northwest. winds veer to the southwest this afternoon but
remain light with peak speeds aob 7 knots before returning to the
south tonight.

for dtw/d21 convection...there is a low chance for thunderstorms to
develop between 16z and 18z monday, although the better opportunity
exists after 18z.

threshold probabilities...

* low chance for thunderstorms between 16z and 18z monday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 400 am edt sun jun 29 2025

discussion...

the center of 1019mb surface high pressure will build across the
central great lakes aggregate this morning to portions of pa and
upstate ny by this afternoon. nwp progs are very aggressive in
advecting/lifting a relatively shallow 950-850mb warm front through
the area into the lake huron basin by the afternoon. expecting a
combination of deeper mixing and an uptick in surface dewpoints to
bring very warm conditions, heat indices in the lower 90s, although
the relatively shallow thetae return will maintain higher static
stability and convective inhibition between 2.5 and 7.0 kft agl.

a midlevel trough will push through the great lakes region monday
and tuesday. forecast data depicts a trough that will remain in a
positive tilt while harboring 2 disorganized shortwave maxima. the
main geopotential height fall response with the system is expected
to occur during the daytime monday as ragged, weak lead wave energy
ejects northeastward in advance of the trough. magnitude of surface
based instability at 2000-3000 j/kg monday will bring a strong to
severe thunderstorm threat but the lack of kinematics will limit 0-
6km bulk shear to 25 to 35 knots during the late afternoon. storm
mode of multicell may support damaging wind gusts between 2pm-10pm
monday with precipitation loading and wet microbursts. the potential
does exist for some isolated short live linear structures as
convective transitions to outflow dominant.

northwesterly flow system relative isentropic descent will bring
subsidence and a modest lowering of humidity for the middle to end
of the week. more comfortable, but nonetheless, classic summer
weather conditions are anticipated. looking at daytime highs in the
80s tuesday through friday (0 to 5 degrees above normal) with
dewpoints predominately in the 60s. there doesn`t appear to be much
potential for organized precipitation during middle to end of
the week period.

marine...

light winds and low waves over the central great lakes to start the
day as a ridge of high pressure exits east. as a result, light
southerly flow under 20 knots develops this afternoon ahead of the
next low pressure system, which enters the northern great lakes
sunday night into monday driving a stronger cold front through the
region. this cold front will provide additional storms monday and a
stronger post-frontal wind field tuesday, around 20 knots

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mv
discussion...cb
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.