Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
116
fxus61 kcle 290420
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1120 pm est wed jan 28 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains generally on track. low temperatures have trended a
little colder on thursday night and friday night with light to calm
winds. wind chills have therefore trended warmer. temperatures
have also trended slightly down over the weekend.

&&

.key messages...
1) very cold weather continues through the weekend, including the
potential for record low temperatures at some locations on thursday
night and friday night. a threat of cold exposure and damage to
infrastructure will continue.

2) light snow is possible in the snowbelt region of northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania overnight into thursday morning and may
result in minor travel impacts.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a cold weather advisory remains in effect for portions of northwest
and north central ohio tonight with wind chill values as low as
-16 overnight. the wind chill remains below zero at most
locations this afternoon while high temperatures range from
8-14 degrees. southwest winds are gusting as high as 20 mph
this afternoon but will drop to 5 to 10 mph tonight. some cloud
and even chances of precipitation will tend to keep low
temperatures tonight above freezing in the snowbelt region
while lows in the advisory area drop to between zero and 5
below.

strong high pressure over the upper midwest will expand across the
southern great lakes region thursday night through friday night.
while cloud cover remains somewhat in question, the potential
exists for maximized radiational cooling where winds are nearly
calm and a deep snowpack remains across the area. temperatures
continue to gradually trend downward in northeast ohio and
northwest pennsylvania for thursday night/friday morning where
confidence is higher in a good window of mostly clear skies.
record lows are in the forecast at several locations in the
east. if we do experience ideal cooling conditions, actual lows
could end up several degrees cooler in valley and interior
locations than what is forecast but this will depend on the
window of clearing. scattered to broken mid level cloud may be
a factor across northwest ohio and temperatures have trended
slightly up in nw ohio. very cold conditions are expected again
friday night as a ridge remains oriented across the area at the
surface. the actual temperature forecast remains dependent on
the pressure gradient and degree of cloud cover. low clouds are
only expected to be scattered but could have some degree of high
level cloud, depending on the evolution of the upper level
trough digging south into the mid-mississippi valley. the
actual low temperatures will be more of a concern on friday and
saturday night with lesser impacts from the wind/wind chill.
will continue to evaluate the temperature forecast over the
coming days and additional cold weather advisories may be
needed. while temperatures have trended slightly down over the
weekend, we do expect gradual improvement early next week. while
temperatures remain below normal through the extended forecast,
highs do approach 30 degrees by wednesday.

impacts from the cold continue to be a concern, both to persons
spending time outdoors, and also to infrastructure with the
prolonged stretch of cold conditions. the extended stretch of cold
weather, with sub-zero values heading into the weekend, could result
in increased infrastructure problems such as burst pipes and
dead car batteries. people need to continue to limit time
outdoors and wear protective clothing.

key message 2...
while the sun has been out across much of northern ohio today, a
light band of lake effect snow is focused over lake erie towards lake
ontario. a trough, both at the surface and aloft will swing
southeast across the eastern great lakes tonight. flow will veer off
lake erie this evening while moisture increases and expect to see
lake enhanced snow showers push into the snowbelt. light
accumulations are possible of generally two inches or less through
thursday morning. subsidence increases upstream rather quickly on
thursday and expect to see diminishing snow showers and even
clouds. the exception would be if a band persists off lake
huron into pennsylvania but given the dry air this contribution
looks limited.

&&

.aviation /06z thursday through monday/...
a mix bag of conditions are being observed across the area
tonight with mvfr ceilings and visibilities occurring at
terminals impacted with snowfall. the snow will continue to be
fairly isolated to those terminals downstream of lake erie,
including kcle and keri, however some lake effect snow coming
off of lake michigan may impact ktol. outside of the areas of
light snow, ceilings generally range from 3-5kft, periodically
resulting in terminals bouncing between vfr and mvfr. this will
likely remain the case for much of this taf period.

current southwest winds of 5-10 knots will gradually become
northwesterly at 5-10 knots by thursday afternoon. by the end
of this taf period, winds are expected to become light and
variable.

outlook...mainly vfr expected through this weekend with the
exception of diurnal low-end vfr or mvfr ceilings and transient
light snow showers. a more widespread non-vfr threat may arrive
on monday in snow showers with a clipper.

&&

.marine...
quiet marine conditions are expected into early next week with winds
less than 20 knots. southwest flow this evening will shift back
towards the west to northwest behind a cold front tonight. winds
will then diminish to 10 knots or less on saturday as arctic high
pressure builds in from the west. winds will increase slightly into
the 10 to 15 knot range by sunday, before shifting back towards the
southwest on monday ahead of the next system, 10 to 15 knots.

the arctic airmass and relatively light wind field across the region
will allow ice on lake erie to further expand and thicken through
the weekend.

&&

.climate...
record low temperatures are possible on friday and saturday. here
are the daily record low minimum temperatures for january 30 and 31:

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
01-30 -10(2019) -10(2019) -4(1873) -6(1965) -8(1965) -4(2019)
01-31 -10(2019) -7(2019) -5(1971) -5(1948) -9(1948) -6(1899)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...cold weather advisory until 11 am est thursday for ohz006-008-
009-017>019-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...10
aviation...04
marine...kahn

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
415
fxus63 kiwx 282334
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
634 pm est wed jan 28 2026

.key messages...
- arctic air remains locked in through the upcoming weekend with
bouts of dangerous wind chills. coldest temperatures of the
season are possible for northwest ohio by saturday morning.

- coverage of lake effect snow showers increase in far north-
central in and southwest mi through thursday morning with
minor accumulations.

- more intense lake effect snow (medium confidence) could impact
northwest indiana friday evening into saturday morning.

- our area looks to remain below freezing for at least the next
10 days, although some warming (relatively speaking) will
occur next week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 156 pm est wed jan 28 2026

the unusual cold spell continues today with afternoon
temperatures maxing out in the teens and the wind keeping the
"feels like" temperatures steady at or below zero all day.
radar, satellite, and surface observations continue to show
light lake effect snow showers streaming off the sw coast of
lake michigan this afternoon. as we move into the overnight
hours, winds will take a slightly more northerly turn, bringing
these les showers more effectively into n indiana, with perhaps
some slight in intensity as well due to further moistening of
the dgz on forecast sounding. nevertheless, accumulations will
remain light with only a 20-30% chance of exceeding 1 inch
across far sw michigan through tomorrow morning. with how cold
roadway surfaces are, however, anything sticking to the roadways
at this point will be capable of causing travel issues
(especially combined with the drifting snow problems we`ve been
having in rural areas). another cold weather advisory has been
hoisted overnight into tomorrow morning, but this time is
limited to southern portions of the forecast area (south of fort
wayne). lake effect cloud cover will limit radiational cooling
farther north. some higher cloud cover will compete with a few
counties in the advisory such as putnam and allen oh, but the
slightly enhanced winds in these areas might be just enough for
a few hours aob -15 wind chills.

a more robust lake effect band looks to become better organized
by friday pm in the immediate wake of a sharp arctic trough
pushing southward through the great lakes. fairly high
equilibrium levels and moist, steep low-level lapse rates in the
dgz should help feed sustain the band overnight. this might
initially begin in lot`s area, but could eventually nudge into
laporte and southwest berrien as we head into saturday. stay
tuned on that. what is perhaps more noteworthy is the
reinforcing shot of colder (yes, colder) air that will hit
particularly hard saturday morning, especially across nw ohio
where minimum temps to 10 below zero seem likely, and it`s not
out of realm of possibility a few areas creep down to -15 based
on some model guidance. wind chills will also be noticeably
colder than that as well, so we will need to monitor for the
potential of an extreme cold watch if these trends continue
colder...

while temperatures will rebound somewhat next week, we still have
high confidence we will remain below freezing for the next 10 days,
so sublimation from wind will likely be the best contributor to
putting a dent in the snowpack, not temperature itself. on a side
note, a well-known teleconnections called the arctic oscillation,
which can be thought of as the surface connection of the
stratospheric polar vortex, appears to stay negative through at
least mid february according to ensemble guidance. a negative ao
often translates to arctic air being able to easily infiltrate out
of canada into the central and eastern us. so if you`re looking for
a near-term warm up back into the 60s, it`s not going to happen
anytime soon...

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 628 pm est wed jan 28 2026

lake effect snow showers are ongoing over western michigan with
subtle southward expansion noted along with veering surface
wind at kmkg and kbiv. satellite shows associated cloud cover
sinking south as well. these bolster confidence in lake effect
snow building south to ksbn over the next few to several hours.
the nature of the beast that is les offers medium confidence at
best for start and end times. however, there does appear to be a
period of ifr conditions on either side of 12z as multi-bands
pass through. how long this persists is unclear, but most
guidance suggest improvement late in this taf period.

at kfwa, a much simpler forecast. here, lake effect clouds are
poised to build in overnight. medium confidence as well for the
timing of any mvfr ceilings. expansive high pressure will permit
light wind.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am est
thursday for inz022>027-032>034.
oh...cold weather advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am est
thursday for ohz016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...norman
aviation...brown

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
859
fxus63 kdtx 290432
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1132 pm est wed jan 28 2026

.key messages...

- wind chills late tonight and thursday morning drop into the 10 to
15 degrees below zero range, and then between 10 and 20 degrees
below zero friday and saturday morning.

- intervals of flurries or light snow showers will develop at times
during late week period. minimal accumulation expected.

&&

.aviation...

ongoing dry air advection within northwest flow will scour out
lingering low clouds and flurries across the metro detroit terminals
prior to taf issuance. decreasing winds with occasional vfr based
clouds will then hold through thursday morning. subtle moisture
advection into se mi thurs afternoon in advance of an arctic front
will support an expansion of vfr based strato cu.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings aob 5000 feet thursday morning. moderate thursday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 252 pm est wed jan 28 2026

discussion...

overlake convective depth associated with entrenched arctic air
proving efficient in maintaining a steady downstream flux of lake
moisture in westerly flow. productive lake cloud toward generating
intervals of light snow showers and flurries given a saturated
profile with steep lapse rates between -15 and -20c. ongoing
activity remains fixated within the typically prone i-69 to i-94
corridor, with a gradual shift southward with time this evening
before ending as flow veers toward the north-northwest with the
passage of a weak impulse. brief period of greater mid level forced
ascent tied to the wave may provide a focus for some minor light
snow production across mainly the thumb this evening as well.
additional accumulation going forward will remain minor. attention
then shifts to overnight cloud/wind trends and effective projection
of low temperature and wind chill thu morning. model guidance offers
a mixed signal on degree and timing of clearing overnight, with a
subset of the solution space maintaining some degree of lake cloud
throughout the night. lower confidence in this scenario, with a tilt
in trajectory toward the northwest often proving adequate to allow
the dry ambient arctic profile to take greater hold. forecast will
lean into the higher probability for some areas of clearing, with
lows reaching zero or slightly below most locations. given a 5 knot
gradient, this will park minimum wind chill in the -10 to -15
degree range.

another period of high magnitude cold air advection will mark the
late week conditions. governing polar low currently fixated over
hudson bay will eject southward over the next 36 hours, with the
main height fall center and attendant cold core arriving locally
friday morning. coldest of conditions expected between thursday
night and saturday morning, with potential for a minimum in morning
wind chill below -15f for some/all of locations fri/sat mornings.
still some uncertainty yet in the low temperature projection, as
cloud cover could prove a limiting factor in the nocturnal cooling
response. the periodic increase in moisture depth above 850 mb will
maintain some intervals of flurries or light snow showers throughout
this period. limited moisture quality or concerted areas of forced
ascent will preclude witnessing greater accumulation potential
through friday. brief window for greater moisture flux off lake
huron into the eastern thumb may emerge friday night/early saturday
as flow trajectory becomes north-northeast.

resident arctic cold moderates only minimally throughout the weekend
period as mean thicknesses see some recovery with the exit of the
upper trough axis. sub zero wind chill again projected for sunday
morning, while daylight temperatures peak in the lower 20s sunday -
or still a solid 10 degrees below average. possible lake huron
moisture flux may again provide some areas of flurries or light snow
showers saturday. otherwise, low-mid level ridging will offer dry
and stable conditions to finish the weekend. temperatures will
remain on the colder side of average into early next week, but not
to the extreme noted recently. the next chance for a more organized
period of light accumulating snow tied to a clipper system and
trailing arctic lobe set to arrive sometime monday into monday
night.

marine...

the great lakes remain under broad upper troughing allowing arctic
air to hold across the waters. forecast through the end of the work
week is largely a persistence forecast from what we`ve seen the last
couple days. winds shift to the northwest this evening but maintain
strength, 10-20kts with gusts up to 25kts, with this flow holding
through friday. trough influence keeps lake effect snow showers
active though directed at the canadian waters and southern ontario.
some areas of freezing spray are possible through this timeframe in
the ice-free waters however lack of strong winds prevent any
widespread heavy freezing spray from developing. slowly moderating
airmass and slightly lighter winds continue to look to be in store
for the weekend.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...mr
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.