Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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351
fxus61 kcle 271022
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
622 am edt sat jul 27 2024

.synopsis...
high pressure will persist over the area through much of the weekend
before moving into new england late sunday. a weak surface
trough will lift north towards the region on monday and linger
through mid-week.

&&

.near term /through sunday/...
quiet weather is expected through sunday as surface high
pressure and ridging aloft persist across the region. weak mslp
gradients will allow a lake breeze to develop during the
afternoon hours today and on sunday. only minor change made to
the forecast was to incorporate some lower dew point guidance in
the afternoon hours for today and sunday as a dry air mass will
exist atop a weak low-level inversion.

seasonable highs in the mid-80s are expected today, while
above-average temperatures in the lower 90s will return by
sunday as the ridge continues to amplify. not anticipating any
smoke/haze concerns from the wildfires out west (us and canada)
as the upper ridge will direct these plumes well to the north.

&&

.short term /sunday night through tuesday night/...
the nice and quiet weather that we are having this weekend will
change starting late sunday night into monday. and out weather
pattern will become more unsettled and also bring some much needed
rainfall across the area for several days next week. the omega block
that was over the great lakes and ohio valley over the past couple
days will break down sunday night. a weak, broad upper trough will
move from the midwest into our region monday. this trough will be
slow to move through our region and will linger through the middle
of next week. slight pops will start to show up in the forecast
sunday night over northwest ohio. scattered showers and a few storms
will become more likely for much of northern ohio on monday. for far
neoh and nwpa, those areas will have lower pops in the slight to
chance range. alot of the convection that develops during the
daytime heating on monday will decrease during the late evening and
overnight hours.

the trough will become a little strong and a sharper axis that will
pivot over our area late tuesday and tuesday night. this time period
will have the highest pops 60 to 70 percent for showers and general
thunderstorms as well as the better potential for most if not all
the area to see at least some measurable rainfall. the latest
trends for the average qpf over those couple of days will be 0.50"
to 1.0" but there may be some isolated higher amounts for few lucky
spots if they see more of the heavier downpours from any passing
convection. regard severe weather potential and the thermodynamics
monday and tuesday, it does not appear to be all that much. there
could be an isolated stronger storm with gusty winds but at this we
are not expecting any organized severe convection. high temperatures
will be very warm outside of any rain showers, in the middle to
upper 80s and somewhat humid conditions too.

&&

.long term /wednesday through friday/...
the end of next week into the start of next weekend will favor a
northwest flow aloft with ridge of high pressure anchored somewhere
over the central conus. the model guidance is hinting at some mcs
type activity setting up somewhere over the midwest, lower great
lakes, and maybe the ohio valley. the is a signal in the model
output and data but low confidence on location, timing, etc. it will
be the next potential impactful weather system to maybe monitor
future trends. we will broad brush some daily and night pops 20 to 35
percent through the end of next week into the weekend. high
temperatures will continue to be slightly above average in the
middle 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.aviation /12z saturday through wednesday/...
vfr across the taf sites this morning with vfr to persist
through the taf period as periodic high cirrus spread across
the area. winds are primarily light and variable this morning.
winds will favor an east to southeast direction by late morning
and early afternoon, around 5 knots. stronger north to northeast
flow of around 10 knots will be found at cle/eri resulting from
a lake breeze.

outlook...non-vfr possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms monday through wednesday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over the great lakes and northeastern u.s. will
continue to bring relatively quiet marine weather conditions this
weekend. there will be weak wind shifts this morning through sunday
afternoon due to the mesoscale effects of a night time land breeze
and afternoon lake breezes this weekend. for today, there will be a
northeast flow 10-15 knots and waves 1-3 feet, but still not
expecting any headlines at this time. that high pressure system
will drift off the east coast late sunday and a south-southwest flow
of 5-10 knots will become established across lake erie through
tuesday night. late tuesday night or early wednesday morning, a
surface trough or weak cold front will track across the lake. the
low level flow and surface winds may become light and variable 5 to
10 knots by the middle of next week. there will be an increase of
scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout next week starting
on monday which may result in locally higher winds and waves.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
ny...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...kahn
near term...kahn
short term...griffin
long term...griffin
aviation...kahn
marine...griffin

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 271032
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
632 am edt sat jul 27 2024

.key messages...

- one more comfortable day before humidity levels begin to
increase.

- several rounds of showers and storms are possible next week,
with limited confidence in timing, intensity and potential
impacts.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 302 am edt sat jul 27 2024

high pressure, centered east of the region, will continue to slowly
drift east over the next 24 to 48 hours. this will allow for at
least 1 more dry day with humidity levels remaining at
comfortable levels before higher dewpoints advect into the
region in association with orphaned upper level energy over ne
oklahoma which ejects towards the region for the start of the
upcoming week.

as noted by the previous shift, the somewhat drier conditions across
the area combined with the ridging over the area may either prevent
or limit the coverage of any showers/storms despite increasing
instability. will maintain low pops sun afternoon/night for the
time being, with likely pops maybe being warranted in sw areas
sunday afternoon where some cams suggest a bit better potential.
better upper level energy arrives monday into tuesday from the
nw with atlantic energy retrograding back into the eastern us
that could help or hurt convective chances. likely pops exist
mainly east both monday and tuesday afternoon, but confidence in
this happening remains on the lower side with a lean towards
mon afternoon.

sprawling upper level ridge takes hold across the sw us with 597 to
600 dm heights in place and our region once again on the edge of the
ridge with chances for showers and storms existing through the
remainder of the forecast. greatest chances may come with stronger
upper level energy from the north that the ec and gem orphan over
top of the area into the upcoming weekend. while 500 mb temps won`t
be very cold, the unstable atmosphere will bring mainly diurnal
chances for showers and storms. model blend accounting for this with
every period having some sort of slgt chc or chc pop in it that is
likely overdone, but warranted at this point in the forecast.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 630 am edt sat jul 27 2024

vfr conditions are expected to prevail through this forecast
period. mid/upper level ridging will build across the great
lakes region today. a cut-off upper level disturbance across the
lower ms valley will slowly lift northward late tonight into
sunday. a narrow zone of better low level moisture transport
will shift north across far ne illinois/nw indiana tonight
preceding this disturbance, but any precip chances through
sunday morning should be confined to extreme nw indiana with a
dry terminal forecast through 12z sunday. sfc anticyclone
drifting across the eastern great lakes will keep light
southeast flow across terminals today into this evening.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 271037
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
637 am edt sat jul 27 2024

.key messages...

- typical mid summer weather this weekend with mostly sunny skies
and high temps in the 80s.

- hot and humid weather persists through much of next week with
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms each day starting
monday.

&&

.aviation...

southeast michigan will remain under the influence of an expansive
high pressure system today. there will be some eastward movement of
the sfc high today. this will simply transition the light winds to a
more sse direction during the afternoon.

for dtw/d21 convection...there is no chance of thunderstorms
through the taf period.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 347 am edt sat jul 27 2024

discussion...

high pressure is parked over the eastern great lakes and the ontario
peninsula where it will remain through the day as mid-level ridging
crests over the region and maintains broad subsidence. there will be
some pockets of cirrus at times as a weak wave passes to our east,
but otherwise abundant sunshine is expected. this leads to high
temps in the lower to mid 80s with warm mid-levels ensuring stable
and dry conditions through the day and into tonight. light southerly
wind will gradually nudge dew points toward the lower 60s by this
evening, raising the floor for low temps tonight into sunday morning
to around 60.

prototypical mid summer weather continues sunday as the mid-level
ridge holds on overhead between an incoming trough from the west and
a coastal low developing off the mid-atlantic. the surface high will
be displaced farther east thus southerly warm/moist advection is
expected to send highs into the upper 80s to near 90 with humidity
increasing to more noticeable levels with dew points in the lower to
mid 60s. enough capping remains present through the day to offer a
dry forecast but will see increasing clouds as upper level moisture
streams in ahead of the trough moving in from the mississippi
valley. can`t entirely rule out an evening pop-up shower as ridging
begins to break down, but guidance continues to hold the arrival of
deeper moisture until after midnight.

additional moisture advection and ascent ahead of the inbound trough
will bring the start of a more unsettled pattern on monday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms looking increasingly likely for
the afternoon and evening. cape on the order of 1000 j/kg may lead
to a few stronger updrafts but 0-6km bulk shear will be very weak at
around 10 kt. the resultant pop-up storm mode offers little threat
of severe weather but slow storm motion and pwats increasing to
around 1.75 inches may lead to localized heavy downpours. not
everyone will see rain with weak/disorganized forcing generally
keeping coverage limited. with more clouds expected through the day,
high temps should hold in the mid 80s.

similar unsettled conditions continue into tuesday as broad
troughing continues to spread overhead with heat and humidity
sticking around at the surface. a shortwave working across northern
ontario will provide a little reinforcement of the wave and looks to
send a weak cold front across the state. this offers slightly higher
pops owing to the more coherent low-level forcing, but organized
severe weather chances again look low with very little wind shear
and the main threat would be heavy rainfall. warmth and humidity
typical of late july and early august likely persists through the
rest of the week with additional shower and thunderstorm chances
each day given an unstable and generally uncapped air mass.

marine...

resident surface high pressure settles eastward today over the
southern ontario peninsula. improvement of the local pressure
gradient yields a slight uptick in southerly winds with time today.
peak gusts could reach 20-25 knots for portions of north-central
lake huron while the rest of the central great lakes generally hold
aob 10 knots ensuring favorable maritime conditions. the surface
ridge breaks down sunday maintaining relatively weak southerly flow
before attention turns to a shortwave trough approaching from the
west monday morning. this initial wave is expected to flatten/weaken
upon arrival, but the transition to a hotter and more humid airmass
should still promote the development of some afternoon
thunderstorms. a well-defined surface low pressure system crosses
into the upper midwest from the canadian prairies before tracking
across lake superior tuesday. the low features an attendant cold
front draped south of the circulation which may extend into the
regional waterways and help promote additional storms tuesday. any
stronger storms that develop early next week could lead to locally
higher winds/waves.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...tf
marine.......kgk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.