Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
639
fxus61 kcle 180951
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
451 am est mon nov 18 2024

.synopsis...
a weak frontal boundary will settle south across the area this
morning before tracking back north as a warm front tonight.
an area of low pressure will develop over great lakes region on
wednesday, pulling a strong cold front east across the area.
this low will meander across the eastern great lakes before
moving off to the east coast on friday.

&&

.near term /through tuesday/...
a weak frontal boundary will move south across lake erie this
morning, bisecting the forecast area by this afternoon.
clearing and near calm surface winds in northwest ohio,
specifically the toledo area, will result in some patchy fog
this morning, which should clear by by 11 am. areas of
low stratus will accompany this front as it moves just south of
lake erie this afternoon with scattered/broken cloud cover
through the day. warm temperatures are expected today with highs
about 10 degrees above normal.

the frontal boundary will lift back northeast tonight in
response to a low pressure system lift northward across the
great plains to the upper midwest region. a line of convection
that develops well to our west this afternoon will approach late
tonight, moving across the area during the daytime hours on
tuesday. confidence in rain has increased along with an increase
in qpf amounts as well, with areawide max pops of 80-90% and
rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.4" west of i-71. rain showers should
gradually dissipate and decrease in coverage through the
afternoon as precipitation outruns the synoptic forcing.

&&

.short term /tuesday night through thursday night/...
an active forecast period is in store, particularly from wednesday
afternoon through thursday when the potential exists for impactful
winds and wet snow accumulations. confidence in the placement and
magnitude of those impacts remains low given inconsistent details
among models, but we`ll dive into the details and what could lead to
a more or less impactful system below.

a cold front that will be bisecting the area tuesday evening and
will continue slowing its eastward progression while undergoing
frontolysis through wednesday morning. have 20-50% pops for rain
showers continuing tuesday night, highest from eastern oh into pa,
with light amounts of qpf in the forecast. the front will probably
stall somewhere over our eastern ohio counties late tuesday night
into wednesday before dissipating on wednesday as the stronger
system begins organizing to our west. lows tuesday night are
expected to generally range from the mid 40s to lower 50s, with
light winds and minimal cold air advection behind the weakening
front. there should be a relative lull in weather wednesday morning
with mostly cloudy skies, mainly dry weather, mild temperatures and
light winds before attention quickly turns to our west.

in a big picture sense, there is decent agreement and consistency
for the wednesday afternoon through thursday night timeframe. a very
amplified pattern will be in place, with high-latitude blocks over
the northern pacific and northeastern canada/greenland pinning a
series of deep, slow-moving troughs underneath them in the mid-
latitudes. one of these troughs will move out of the midwest and
into the southern great lakes/ohio valley on wednesday, with the
trough deepening wednesday night into thursday while drifting east
towards the northern mid atlantic and southern new england by
thursday night. at the surface there`s high confidence that we will
see a strong cold front sweep across the area during the day
wednesday, with low pressure developing either overhead or to our
north/northeast and deepening wednesday and wednesday night. this
low pressure is expected to transfer its energy to a developing low
near the ny/nj coastline into thursday, leaving broad surface
troughing hanging back into the great lakes. there`s good agreement
that a pool of 850mb temperatures of -5c to -10c will work through
the region on the southwestern side of the developing low wednesday
night and persist into thursday, with temperatures aloft gradually
warming from the north starting thursday night as the system becomes
completely wrapped up and starts drifting east. there`s also good
agreement that there will be a notable swath of precipitation
southwest of the deepening low wednesday night into thursday before
becoming more showery as the bulk of the energy transfers towards
the east coast, with at least some of that swath of precip falling
as wet snow where the lift near the low interacts with the pool of
colder air wrapping in from the southwest. there`s also decent
agreement that it will be windy with and just behind the frontal
passage wednesday afternoon and evening, with winds continuing to
the southwest of the deepening low wednesday night into
thursday.

users who viewed the 0z gfs and 0z nam/european models are now
saying "but those two solutions aren`t even close!"...and we
certainly take note of that. the big question is exactly how far
south does the closed low aloft dig wednesday into thursday, and
exactly where and how quickly does surface low pressure deepen
starting during the day wednesday. the gfs model maintains a focus
on the energy in the north portion of the upper trough and tracks
the overall closed low farther north. this leads to surface low
pressure that deepens slower and tracks farther north, a much weaker
solution overall that takes the heavier precip (accumulating snow
potential) safely north of our area with much less wind overall. the
nam, european, and canadian all key in on energy rotating around the
southern portion of the trough on wednesday, leading to closed low
aloft tracking overhead or just to our south through wednesday
night. this leads to low pressure that deepens much quicker and much
closer to our local area, bringing greater precipitation (and
accumulating snow potential) into our area and leading to a much
windier storm overall. this is particularly true of the 0z nam and
european model runs. when looking at the ensembles to try to make
sense of these different solutions, the canadian ensemble has
consistently had this farther south solution, with the european
ensemble trending that direction each run over the last 24 hours.
the gfs ensemble has a solution more closely mirroring the
operational run. there are members of all 3 ensembles supporting
anything from a gfs-like solution with relatively modest amounts of
wind/wet snow in the local area to a solution even stronger/more
amplified than the nam/euro solution. so, it is hard to lean too
much in one particular direction. given what appears to be the
european ensemble inching towards the farther south, stronger,
potentially snowier outcome did swing the forecast slightly windier
and wetter wednesday afternoon through thursday. however, notable
adjustments in either direction could easily still be needed.

temperatures should peak in the 50s to near 60 on wednesday ahead of
the front, warmest east. lows wednesday night will be in the 30s,
with the higher terrain potentially reaching freezing while
locations closer to the lake stay in the mid to upper 30s. highs on
thursday will be in the mid to upper 30s for many away from lake
erie, with near 40 along the lakeshore. lows thursday night will be
similar to or perhaps slightly milder than wednesday night,
generally in the low to mid 30s inland (locally below freezing in
the higher terrain) to the upper 30s near lake erie. any snow that
falls will be wet and will most favor locations inland from the lake
and in the higher terrain given these expected temperatures.

to sum up the potential wind impacts, there will be an initial surge
of gusty winds behind the cold front wednesday afternoon and
evening. a line of convective showers may evolve along the front,
which could enhance any wind potential with the front. weaker
solutions, such as the gfs, would probably support sub-advisory
gusts of 35-45 mph right behind the front. stronger solutions, such
as the nam and euro, would support advisory-criteria type gusts of
45-55 mph with and right behind the front. a gfs-like solution would
continue breezy but sub-advisory (think gusts in the 30-35 mph
range) through thursday night at times as low pressure deepens well
to our north. a more aggressive nam/european-like solution would
likely support continued potential for advisory to warning-level
gusts (think in the 55-65 mph range) wednesday night into early
thursday southwest of a rapidly deepening low pressure. the range of
possible wind impacts is from "no headlines" to "potentially warning-
level" gusts. nbm probabilities currently depict a 30-50% risk of
advisory-criteria gusts across the local area and a 5-25% risk of
warning-level gusts at some point with this entire system. it`s
worth noting that the official forecast, taking into account a wide
array of models and ensembles and incorporating bias-correction,
does not currently have any gusts over advisory-criteria despite the
higher-end solutions posed by the nam/european models.

to sum up the potential snow/winter impacts, the airmass should be
cold enough for at least some snow to mix in overnight wednesday
night through thursday away from lake erie. by thursday night into
friday, milder air wrapping in from the north should gradually lead
to precipitation changing back to primarily rain from north to
south. the big question is where does the low wrap up wednesday
night into thursday, which will dictate where a heavier swath of
precipitation that would support wet snow accumulations will set-up.
like the operational models, ensemble members range from placing
that swath of potential accumulating snow over our area (or even
just southwest) to having a weaker solution that produces much less
snow focused to our north or northeast. nbm ensemble probabilities
for snow accumulations over 1 inch during this period are 20-50%
across most of our area away from the immediate lakeshore, with
locally 50-60% in the higher terrain. odds for over 4" are lower,
generally ranging from 10-20% in the higher terrain near mansfield
points east-northeast across interior northeast oh and northwest pa.
odds for 6-8"+ are not zero but continue to trend lower, generally
10% or less and focused in the higher terrain. the latest nbm has
not incorporated all of the 0z ensembles yet, so probabilities may
rise a bit in future runs, though again it`s worth noting that
despite the gaudy solutions posed by the european/nam that there is
a ton of uncertainty. the official forecast does have light snow
accumulations of up to an inch or so in the higher terrain away from
the lake, with little to none close to the lake. there`s plenty of
room to trend to a more impactful solution and we will be here to
adjust as needed, but given the negative factors (warm ground,
marginal air temperatures, narrow swath of snow) and overall
uncertainty it is extremely important to take deterministic model
snow outputs available on the internet with a massive grain of
salt.

&&

.long term /friday through sunday/...
chilly cyclonic flow will persist through the weekend as troughing
lingers over the northeast us. expect hit-or-miss showers area wide
on friday with much greater persistence of showers east of lake erie
due to lake enhancement. we should start gradually trending drier
from the southwest through the weekend as high pressure slowly
builds in, though with the ridge axis not moving overhead until
sunday or sunday night lake effect will continue until that time
downwind of the lake. precip should mainly be a chilly rain this
period, though a secondary surge of colder air arriving around
saturday may allow some snow to again mix in with the rain showers
across inland locales. temperatures will be cooler than normal
through the weekend with west-northwest breezes slowly relaxing.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
light rain and stratus deck with mvfr ceilings will accompany a
weak cold front that is approaching from the north, spreading
southward across the area through primarily the morning hours.
the rain observed on radar is currently over lake erie but will
actually tend to dissipate as it moves onshore in northeast ohio
and northwest pennsylvania with only light, scattered rain
showers possible through about 09z. otherwise, mvfr ceilings
bordering vfr will spread in throughout the morning out before
gradually becoming vfr either through scattering out of cloud
deck or ceilings raising to the 3500-5000 range. mvfr ceilings
won`t necessarily be continuous and will actually be fairly
variable between 2500-4000 ft or so. this weak cold front sinks
south of the forecast by early this afternoon before lifting
back north as a warm front later this evening into tonight. it`s
possible that there are a few light, isolated rain showers,
mainly to the west near the i-75 corridor. non-vfr is not
expected with these showers. wind generally light and variable,
although southeast winds start to increase very late tonight,
especially for western taf sites.

outlook...non-vfr is expected with rain showers tuesday. a
large low pressure is expected to impact the region wednesday
through saturday, bringing breezy conditions and periodic non-
vfr in rain showers, potentially mixed with wet snow showers at
times.

&&

.marine...
west-northwest winds will be elevated a bit at 10-15 knots east of
cleveland this morning before becoming much lighter this afternoon
as high pressure slides through. east-southeast winds pick up to 10-
20 knots tonight into tuesday morning ahead of a warm front lifting
towards the lake. winds shift southerly during the day tuesday
behind the warm front and then more west-southwest tuesday night
into early wednesday as a weakening cold front crosses the lake.
winds will weaken a bit to 10-15 knots tuesday night. while there
will be some chop at times, no marine headlines are currently
anticipated through wednesday morning.

a prolonged period of unsettled marine conditions is still expected
beginning wednesday afternoon and lingering through the weekend. a
strong cold front will sweep across the lake wednesday afternoon and
evening. a period of 20-30 knot west-southwest winds is likely right
behind the cold front. low pressure will then deepen near the lake
or a bit to the north/northeast wednesday night and thursday,
turning winds more west-northwest and keeping them elevated. the
location and rate of intensification of the low is not agreed-upon
by models yet. at the least, continued 20-30 knot winds appear
likely wednesday night into thursday morning across the lake.
however, a stronger low pressure would support gales, with current
nbm ensemble probabilities depicting a 30-60% risk for sustained
gales over the central and eastern basins at some point wednesday
night or thursday (10-30% in the western basin). low pressure will
transfer to the east coast at some point on thursday, though brisk
northwesterly cyclonic flow in the 20-30 knot range will likely
continue through friday night. winds will remain elevated out of the
west-northwest but should gradually subside starting saturday. a
prolonged small craft advisory is a given beginning at some point
wednesday and lasting well into the weekend. potential for gale
headlines is less confident but worth monitoring, especially
wednesday night into thursday though with winds possibly remaining
close to gale at times through friday night with stronger
solutions.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...saunders
near term...saunders
short term...sullivan
long term...sullivan
aviation...saunders
marine...sullivan

Fulton and Henry Counties

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669
fxus63 kiwx 181040
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
540 am est mon nov 18 2024

.key messages...

- chances for showers increase, focused on tonight into early
tuesday and again by wednesday night.

- highs in the 60s tuesday will be quickly replaced by much
cooler temperatures in the 30s and 40s by thursday.

- while some snowflakes may occur wednesday night into early
thursday, accumulations are not expected given warm ground
temperatures.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 343 am est mon nov 18 2024

weak cool front was stalling/washing out across northern portions of
the area where kbeh and surrounding areas managed to pick up less
than a tenth of an inch of rain. the rainfall and lingering moisture
has allowed fog and stratus to rapidly develop with some
locations, especially north of the toll road at or below 1/4sm
at times. have introduced patchy or areas of fog across far n
areas, but holding off on any headlines.

a strong upper level low and associated jet streak was aiding in
surface low pressure development across western tx. the upper level
energy and associated sfc low will move nne into minnesota by 12z
tue. the initial upper wave will be dampening somewhat, transferring
its energy into a northern stream trough that will quickly deepen
with a closed low taking shape by 18z tue over the dakotas.

surge of waa will commence today, with plume of increasing low level
moisture advecting north courtesy of an unobstructed flow from the
gom. the llj will remain focused to our west through the day,
helping to focus the greatest qpf potential into il. somewhat
skeptical that much rain will edge into western areas with current
qpf forecasts of around a tenth of an inch possibly overdone. by the
time you reach i-69, little or no rainfall is expected. widely
scattered showers may start to edge into western areas after 03z
tue, but best chances exist between 6 and 15z from sw to ne with a
few lingering showers possible until the warm front clears the area.
overall qpf should be on the order of a quarter inch or so. dry slot
quickly works in during the afternoon, likely lingering through at
least 12z wed with strong mixing allowing for a breezy day with
temperatures soaring into the 60s early, well above normal for
november, but still far shy of records in the 70s.

the upper low will continue to move east and deepen into wednesday
with a 120 kt jet streak rounding the trough, eventually forcing
further cyclogenesis east of the area as the energy transfers east.
some models bring some light precip in wednesday as the nose of
stronger lift arrives ahead of the cold front, but concerned that
the disjointed setup of dynamics may lead to limited chances for
precip with the bulk of anything residing more north and east int
thursday morning for most areas. colder air will be rapidly moving
into sw areas wed night into thur with 850 mb temps dropping well
below zero celsius and tw temps also dropping below 32 degrees. this
would yield a chance for some snow, but areas with highest pops
across the far north will have somewhat higher tw temps resulting in
more of a mix. also, despite the overnight occurrence of the colder
air, lack of high precip rates, combined with very warm ground temps
point towards no accumulation and little if any impacts on roads.
better chances for more widespread precipitation looks to arrive
thursday afternoon into night as energy wraps back around the
eastern low. sub zero 850 mb temps will still exist, but a modifying
airmass will advect in from the north, yielding warmer tw temps and
keeping precip in the form of rain. gusty winds still appear to be
in store for wed into thu, but translation of much stronger winds
may end up more east of the area. still expecting 20 to 30 mph with
some higher gusts possible.

the main upper low will move to new england but the strong nw flow
will remain in place with additional waves bringing chances for
mainly light showers into the weekend.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 539 am est mon nov 18 2024

stalled weak cold front across the terminals this morning will
buck back north this aftn in response to increasing warm
advection downstream of intense shortwave ejecting out of the
srn plains. brief clearing invof ksbn had yielded dense fog yet
should improve after sunrise as mixing ticks up later this
morning. otherwise general lower bound vfr cigs will trend lower
by aftn as boundary moisture flux increases invof developing
warm frontal zone.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to noon est
tuesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...fisher
aviation...t

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
971
fxus63 kdtx 181029
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
529 am est mon nov 18 2024

.key messages...

- milder through wednesday with highs in the 50s. some 60s possible
in the south tuesday.

- widespread showers return early tuesday as a warm front lifts into
the area.

- breezy and colder for the end of the work week as strong low
pressure develops over the eastern conus. this system brings the
potential for rain and snow during the late week period.

&&

.aviation...

drier air attempting to slowly move in from north to south, but
struggling with the very lights winds in place. thus, shallow
ifr/lifr fog remains possible at the start of the taf period before
mixing out mid morning, with then mostly clear/partly cloudy skies
for much of today. southeast winds increasing to around 10 knots
toward the end of the day will allow moisture and low to mid clouds
to return this evening, helped out by the trajectory off lake erie.
the southern tafs will likely see borderline mvfr/vfr cigs toward
midnight, which should expand northward tonight.


dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through mid morning, then
meduim this evening and tonight with high confidence for tuesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 337 am est mon nov 18 2024

discussion...

the upper level jet axis overhead of the great lakes is undergoing a
rapid transformation from anticyclonic to cyclonic curvature as the
speed max pushes east of southeast michigan by 12z this morning.
locally, this will place southeast michigan in a very favorable
location for confluence aloft today and will cause the 950-925mb
extension of the cold front to stall over portions of lenawee county
and northern ohio. surface ridging will pass through the area and
any ascent along the boundary to the south is forecasted to be
extremely shallow. a substantial amount of dry air will be in place
over the forecast area, leading to sunshine today for a majority of
southeast michigan. daytime temperatures will be in the middle to
upper 50s some 10 degrees above normal with winds generally light.

warm advection will ramp up quickly this evening as meridional low
level jet (40-50 knots) is directed into portions of western lower
michigan. plan view perspective shows best lift occurs between 700-
500mb but propagates rapidly through southeast michigan between 03-
08z. forecast soundings support residual dry air staying in place
particularly south of i 69. low chance pops are adequate and not
expecting much qpf.

the edge wave low pressure deepening over the great plains today
will lead to a shorter wavelength upper level ridge that will build
across southeast michigan early tuesday morning. very poor synoptic
scale forcing for ascent then carries through during the late
morning and early afternoon hours as significant weakening of the
absolute vorticity maximum occurs and an extremely unfavorable jet
configuration aloft takes shape. the occluded front tracks across
midday tuesday favoring the stretching deformation but really
looking at lackluster dynamics. 60-80% rain chances are fine for a
time on tuesday because of very high saturation in the lowest 7.0
kft (small raindrops or drizzle).

forecast attention remains centered on the wednesday and thursday
periods as strong potential vorticity energy and jet forcing aloft
moves into the central united states. the mass adjustments are
expected to result in additional cyclogenesis in vicinity of the
great lakes. a high variance in potential outcomes remains on the
table as some fairly substantial outliers exist. one of these
outliers is the 18.00z nam12 solution which suggests a fairly long
duration of accumulating snow. still a long ways off from any
answers as the latest cluster analysis of eps/geps/gefs datasets
places the deepest surface troughing north of southeast michigan
over the lake huron basin and a tertiary low pressure center
deepening off of long island by 12z 11/21. virtually all of the
clusters support some east coast transfer with the northeast united
states development. the key to the sensible weather forecast and
potential for accumulating snow for southeast michigan will be what
sort of lake induced mesolow will lock onto and persist over the
great lakes. there are a significant number of eps solutions that
suggests it will occur over the lake erie basin, while the gfs runs
since the 16th have shown a preference for the straits. the issue of
very warm lake temperatures is a real one and could lead to thermal
profiles too warm for snow outside of the strongest rates. less than
10% of the solutions in the 18.00z eps bring significant
accumulations to the area. the outgoing forecast will read for a
rain/snow mix wednesday night and thursday with no accumulations.
the best potential for snow may be to the south across ohio with a
better shot at colder unmodified air undercutting the great lakes.
given the projected low stability/potential instability and
likelihood for very strong forcing and mass adjustments, it is
important to stress again that we remain a long ways from an answer.

the forecast for the end of the week and next weekend is highly
dependent on how progressive the cold air aloft remains. latest
ecmwf solution carries the cutoff rapidly out of the area by early
friday allowing for deep column warming. lake effect precipitation
will remain likely fri-sat in the immediate downwind vicinity of the
lakes, but precipitation type may remain a cold rain.

marine...

a cold front has cleared the great lakes this morning as wind
direction continues to veer to the west-northwest in the wake of the
front. elevated wind speeds will linger across northern lake huron
through around daybreak, tied to the elevated mixing depths that
have set up as a result of the cooler air temperatures. the late
morning and early afternoon hours will see winds dwindle as high
pressure briefly fills in across the region. high pressure will then
wash out over the ontario-quebec border late tonight into early
tomorrow morning.

a low pressure system then moves from the plains into minnesota,
strengthening the pressure gradient over the great lakes as winds
then veer to the east-southeast. this will bring sustained winds
around 20 to 25 knots for portions of lake huron starting tomorrow
morning, with gust potential around 30 knots given shallow mixing
depths tapping into a shallow yet energetic wind field aloft.
favorable fetch over northern lake huron could bring some isolated
gusts to gales. otherwise, small craft advisories will be likely for
portions of the nearshore zones for both winds and waves given the
favorable fetch.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sf
discussion...cb
marine.......am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.