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Lucas and Wood Counties

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000
fxus61 kcle 180534
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
134 am edt fri oct 18 2019

.synopsis...
deep low pressure over maine will move northeast away from the local
area tonight. high pressure will build east over the region friday
and then move east of the area friday night. a weak cold front will
move southeast across the area sunday as it dissipates. a warm front
will lift north across the area as a deep low pressure moves into
the central great lakes region. a trailing cold front is expected
to move east of the area tuesday.

&&

.near term /through today/...
not too many changes with the forecast at this time. increasing
concern that the forecast is too low with overnight temperatures
with dew points remaining in the upper 30s and cloud cover
overhead. there is a small pocket of clearing that will duck
just south and west of tol and perhaps drop a couple folks down
into the mid 30s later tonight. however, believe that the frost
advisory may be in a bit of trouble. will keep a mix of
patchy/areas of frost in the forecast for now, but if the
conditions persist, can see the headline taken down early.

previous discussion...
deep upper level low pressure over the northeastern united states
with a trailing trough of low pressure will dominate the local area
through thursday night. an upper level ridge of high pressure will
build east toward the region in the wake of the upper level low
pressure system and trough.

cyclonic flow around the surface low over the northeast will
continue to cause gusty winds across the area this evening.
expecting the winds to diminish overnight as well. the cyclonic flow
continues to result in some lake effect rain showers over the
northeast snowbelt. with time, the flow will gradually shift with
the exiting low and reduce the multi lake fetch. drier air will
spill east into the region and these factors will aid in gradually
ending the lake effect rain showers. latest satellite imagery shows
an extensive area of cloud cover and much of it over the western
half of the area is becoming diurnal and nature and will begin to
dissipate with sunset. some lingering clouds off lake michigan
could persist into lucas, wood, and hancock counties through late
tonight and then begin to thin out. good radiational cooling will
take place as winds diminish allowing temperatures to drop into the
lower to middle 30s in the west. therefore, widespread areas of
frost are expected. not expecting widespread areas to drop below
freezing; however. will hoist a frost advisory for the west from 2
am tonight until 9 am tomorrow morning. central portions of the
area will see temperatures in the middle 30s overnight with some
occasional clouds over the area.

high pressure will begin to take over tomorrow and further reduction
in the clouds will occur over the central and east portions through
friday night. temperatures will remain on the cool side tomorrow in
the lower 50s east to middle and upper 50s central and west. lower
to middle 30s expected for friday night as high pressure takes
over.

&&

.short term /tonight through sunday night/...
southerly flow will return on saturday as high pressure shifts
to the east coast and a trough approaches the upper great
lakes. we will see some increase in cloud cover and perhaps a
stray shower saturday night but the system will lack moisture and
pops peak in the 20-30 percent range.

heights build sunday with warm advection really strengthening
into monday ahead of the next system approaching from the
plains. monday is expected to be the warmest day of the week and
raised temperatures a couple more degrees into the lower 70s area
wide. cloud cover will thicken from the west with a chance of
showers as early as monday afternoon. will need to keep an eye on
timing of the cold front as a deep upper level trough develops over
the plains but current timing suggests better chances of rain will
hold off until monday night with the frontal passage.

&&

.long term /monday through thursday/...
upper level closed low will lift northeast across the upper midwest
monday night and tuesday, pulling a cold front east across the area.
the cold front is expected to move across the area late monday night
into tuesday morning accompanied by a band of showers and possibly
even a few thunderstorms. breezy west to southwest winds
are expected tuesday behind the front. most models suggest
considerable dry air wraps into the system on tuesday allowing
chances of rain to decrease from west to east except holding on
downwind of lake erie. temperatures will fall back to near or
slightly below normal values by tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
high pressure will be making its way across the terminals today.
lake stratocumulus will primarily be vfr through midday before
easing out of the picture. some intermittent mvfr ceilings may
affect eri/yng this morning. winds will be light north-
northwest, go light/variable this evening and become light
east-southeast overnight.

.outlook...non-vfr possible in showers and thunderstorms
monday. non-vfr possible for eri tuesday.

&&

.marine...
small craft advisories remain in effect east of the islands into
tonight. the group offshore of erie county ohio is in effect until
10 pm while locations from cleveland eastward will remain in effect
until 4 am with winds of 15 to 25 knots and waves gradually
decreasing into friday morning. marine conditions will improve on
friday and remain good through the weekend as high pressure
builds to the east coast.

the next system to watch will be a low pressure system moving
from the plains towards the upper great lakes on monday. southerly
winds will increase ahead of this system, then shift to the
southwest at 20-30 knots on tuesday behind the associated cold
front.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for ohz003-006-008-
017-018-027>030-036-037-047.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt early this morning for
lez145>149.

&&

$$
synopsis...lombardy
near term...lombardy/sefcovic
short term...kec
long term...kec
aviation...oudeman
marine...kec

Fulton and Henry Counties

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222
fxus63 kiwx 180630
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
230 am edt fri oct 18 2019

.synopsis...
issued at 130 am edt fri oct 18 2019

after a cold and frosty start, temperatures will warm quickly under
sunny skies with afternoon highs of 55 to 60. dry and warmer
this weekend with highs of 65 to 70.

&&

.short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 230 am edt fri oct 18 2019

sfc ridge splitting the cwa this morning will slowly edge ewd
through aftn as low level flow backs srly. ramping warm advection
seen aloft yet boundary layer mixing remains weak and given frosty
start only about a cat warmer temps attainable this aftn.

weak/decoupled sfc gradient tonight along with clear skies within
wrn periphery of departing sfc ridge will again lead to frost/light
freeze east half yet will punt any required advisory decision to
dayshift to reaccess as yet uncertain wrn reach of potential threat.

&&

.long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 230 am edt fri oct 18 2019

potent sw disturbance digging through the nrn rockies sat will eject
out and intensify considerably through sd late sun before lifting
out through the nrn lakes late mon. associated swwd trailing active
frontal zone expected and will cross the area mon aftn. good gomex
moisture feed entraining ahead of this feature along w/better model
consensus timing affords a requisite bump in pops especially mon
aftn/eve.

weak but windy post frontal cold advection regime expected tue
followed by moderating temps in response to perturbed upstream high
zonal flow buckling again through the upper midwest wed/thu.
otherwise dry wx prevails and will eliminate ghost pops.

&&

.aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z friday night)
issued at 147 am edt fri oct 18 2019

calm/variable winds will give way to light southeast to south flow
friday afternoon/evening as an upper level ridge and surface high
pressure system pass through the region. expect vfr conditions
for the most part (as have in the forecast). thinking that drier
air/very shallow moisture should preclude any fog
development...but observations in northern il and near gary, in
are showing visibilities between 2-5 miles with br. will monitor
and amend if necessary for mvfr visibilities.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory from 2 am edt /1 am cdt/ to 9 am edt /8 am cdt/
friday for inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

mi...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt friday for miz078>081.

oh...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt friday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.

lm...none.
&&

$$

synopsis...t
short term...t
long term...t
aviation...mcd


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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 180349
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1149 pm edt thu oct 17 2019


.aviation...

satellite trends have been showing a gradual clearing trend over the
last couple hours as high pressure nudges into the region from the
west. there are still some strato cu streaming into lower mi off the
lakes. the persistence of a deep low level inversion will allow some
of these clouds to continue to be ducted into se mi during the early
morning hours, based generally between 4k and 5k feet. otherwise,
winds will continue to decrease as the gradient relaxes.


dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 357 pm edt thu oct 17 2019

discussion...

gusty nw wind reinforces cool temperatures this afternoon before the
wind diminishes quickly around sunset. a generous coverage of
diurnally supported stratocu fades with sunset as well and the
clearing trend feeds back into wind decoupling due to quick
establishment of the surface based inversion. all of these elements
combine to organize the radiational cooling scenario for later
tonight as high pressure builds in from the midwest. a few streamers
of lake induced stratocu are possible but a 330/nw wind below 700 mb
is favorable for maintaining minimal cloud coverage through the
night. there is some mixed signals in model output in terms of cloud
potential however nw flow and incoming high pressure supports
leaning the forecast toward lower coverage. model soundings that
favor clear sky then indicate a surface temperature dropping into
the upper 20s across interior sections of lower michigan with a
shallow moisture profile that makes surface dewpoint vulnerable to
being carried lower by strong radiational cooling. this results in
widespread frost and warning worthy freezing temperatures across se
michigan as high pressure becomes centered over the region by
sunrise friday.

temperatures recover from the cold start to reach highs in the lower
to mid 50s friday afternoon. this occurs under full sun as high
pressure is in full control of conditions will drifting east across
the central great lakes. the eastward drift represents displacement
of the low level thermal trough that continues through friday night
and leads to moderation of low temperatures by saturday morning.
development of light se wind and some increase in high clouds also
help support low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

low pressure moving across central canada has a cold front trailing
southward into the plains and midwest saturday. this initial affect
of this system is an additional increase of south wind over se
michigan during which further boosts the warming trend. high
temperature guidance in the upper 50s to lower 60s is finally back
up around normal for mid october although readings are muted
slightly by increasing clouds ahead of the cold front. the moisture
return is respectable as the 12z models generally agree on 850 mb
dewpoint rising to around 10c in the warm sector. the limiting
factor for showers is the weakness in the front itself so far south
of the parent low centered over hudson bay by saturday night. a
chance pop for scattered shower coverage looks reasonable at this
point in the forecast.

amplifying ridge ahead of a developing system across the
central plains will move over the great lakes with surface high
pressure allowing for dry conditions on sunday. general south to
southwest flow in the lower levels will draw warmer air into the
region to close out the weekend allowing high temperatures on
sunday to climb into the 60s under mostly sunny skies.

the surface low will undergo cyclogenesis as it lifts into minnesota
during monday morning pulling a warm front northward through lower
michigan by monday afternoon. this will bring one more day in the
60s before widespread precipitation chances arrive late monday
evening into tuesday. strong dynamics will support this rainfall
within the corridor of higher theta-e being drawn northward ahead of
the cold front. post frontal conditions will be much cooler with
troughing over the midwest ushering in 850 mb temperatures of around
0c by tuesday evening. this will bring high temperatures back down
into the 50s for tuesday and through the middle of next week.

marine...

strong and cold northwest flow over lake huron will continue to
slowly diminish tonight, but waves in excess of 4 feet will continue
across the southern lake huron basin. winds becoming light tomorrow
over the central great lakes as high pressure arrives. this high
will be slow to push east over the weekend, and thus winds remaining
light into saturday. southeast winds then ramp slowly ramp on sunday
and monday, with gusts at or above 30 knots over lake huron by
monday evening ahead of the next strong cold front. strong winds
then persist into tuesday behind the cold front, but post
frontal wind speeds look to remain below gales at this time.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...freeze warning until 8 am edt friday for miz047>049-053>055-060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.

lakeshore flood advisory until 4 am edt friday for miz049.

lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am edt friday for lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...bt/aa
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.