Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
585
fxus61 kcle 081837
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
137 pm est thu jan 8 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes but added a wind advisory for the downsloping
areas of erie county pa. temperatures are non-diurnal for friday
and highs occur earlier in the day prior to frontal passage.

&&

.key messages...
1) winds picking up tonight into friday as rain moves in with a low
pressure system moving into the region. unseasonably warm
friday.

2) a late saturday/early saturday night cold front brings rain changing
over to lake effect snow sunday and significantly colder air into
the region after the friday warm up.


&&

.discussion...
key message 1...

an area of low pressure will track from the southern plains region
into the central great lakes tonight into friday. a leading edge
warm front will move into the western zones of the cwa this evening
with weak isentropic ascent producing scattered light rain. low
level/surface warm air advection will dominate the overnight period
with temperatures warming up through the morning hours friday, and
then a non-diurnal trend continuing through friday with the midday
passage of the cold front. temperatures will top out in the upper
50s to near 60f before dropping through the remainder of friday into
the evening. as per typical with these cold season low pressure
systems, low level flows will be on the increase, and in the warm
sector, a low level jet pushing 75kts is expected. a pressure
gradient increase will provide strengthening winds for the area, but
a relatively stable boundary layer should keep those higher low
level velocities off the surface. a line of convection should be
expected ahead of the cold front late tonight into early friday.
while there is not a severe threat, and lightning will probably be
on the scarce side with a pronounced lack of instability, this could
be a mechanism to bring stronger gusts to the surface. that and the
now descending cold air advection in the wake of the cold front will
be the primary producers of the wind issues for this part of the
forecast. that said, the synoptic scale wind gusts are a touch below
40kts for the area, so no wind advisory for now. for the erie county
pa region, southerly downsloping in the warm sector is expected, so
this added aspect to the wind should get the gusts to 40-45kts for a
few hours, and will go with a wind advisory for the lakeshore zone
of the county.

key message 2...

low pressure develops over the lower great lakes in response to a
digging/closing upper level low dropping into the western great
lakes from the canadian prairies. this cold front moving through as
a result late saturday will knock temperatures back down below
freezing once again as we head into the latter half of the weekend.
rain changes to light snow saturday night in minimal to no
accumulations, but then a brief lake effect setup commences for
sunday into early sunday night as a surface trough lingers and the
axis of an upper trough swings through. this is a low end event, and
only expecting 1-4 inches for now in the snow belt areas before
winds turn southwesterly on monday.


&&

.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
at the surface, a ridge exits e`ward from our region through
18z/fri. simultaneously, a potent low wobbles ne`ward from the
central great plains to near georgian bay. accordingly, a warm
front should sweep ne`ward through our region between about
03z/fri and 12z/fri, while the low`s trailing cold front will
sweep e`ward and should near ktol and kfdy by 18z/fri. our
regional surface winds will be around 10 to 20 knots during the
taf period and veer from sse`erly to s`erly to sw`erly with the
warm front passage. winds will gust up to 20 to 35 knots at
times, especially after 00z/fri. note: a s`erly to sw`erly low-
level jet of about 40 to 60 knots at/near 925 mb will result in
low-level wind shear after 00z/fri. this jet and associated low-
level wind shear should exit e`ward from ktol, kfdy, and
vicinity after about 15z/fri.

widespread dry weather and vfr persist for the time being.
scattered to widespread rain showers and accompanying mvfr
ceilings associated with the low pressure system should
overspread our region generally from west to east between about
03z/fri and about 12z/fri. these showers and widespread
ceilings should persist through 18z/fri and yield vfr to mvfr
visibility.

outlook...non-vfr expected with periods of rain and/or snow
friday afternoon through this tuesday.

&&

.marine...
as high pressure passes to the east and a low pressure system
enters the great lakes region tonight, southerly winds will
gradually increase over the lake and eventually reach 15 to 25
kts of flow tonight. the associated cold front of the system
will cross the lake on friday and shift winds to the west then
northwest with 15 to 25 kts continuing. this will allow for
waves to build over 4 ft for the eastern half of the lake, where
conditions are more ice-free. with this system, have issued a
small craft advisory for the entire lake for tonight into friday
with the forecast package this morning.

high pressure will be in the region friday night and early
saturday to allow for a reprieve of strong winds and there will
be some easterly flow. a low pressure system will enter on
saturday and pass over the lake. winds will flip to the west by
saturday night and increase as the low strengthens over the
region through sunday. there will likely need to be additional
marine headlines for the weekend. a surface ridge will build
over the lake on monday and shift winds southwest. however,
there will still be a strong pressure gradient in the region and
15 to 25 kt winds may continue, as well as marine headlines.

&&

.climate...
unseasonably warm temperatures are expected on friday with
record high temperatures possible. here are the record high
temperatures for area climate sites on january 9th:

daily record high maximum temperatures

date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
01-09 59(1880) 61(1946) 66(1937) 63(1946) 66(1937) 64(1937)

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...wind advisory from 11 pm this evening to 11 am est friday for
paz001.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est
friday for lez142>145.
small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm est
friday for lez146-147.
small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 1 am est
saturday for lez148-149.

&&

$$

discussion...26
aviation...jaszka
marine...sefcovic

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
000
fxus63 kiwx 081828
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
128 pm est thu jan 8 2026

.key messages...

- breezy and mild with periods of rain tonight. a few showers linger
into friday morning. rainfall totals generally 0.25-0.75".

- isolated storms possible 10 pm to 4 am est tonight along and west
of i-60. gusty winds in excess of 40 mph possible.

- chances (50-70%) for light rain return for saturday.

- colder with periods of snow showers saturday night into
sunday. light snow accums possible, mainly near lake mi.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 128 pm est thu jan 8 2026

active pattern expected through this weekend as several storm
systems take aim on the midwest. the first shortwave and associated
sfc reflection over the central plains will race northeast into the
western/northern great lakes tonight. this will allow a rather
anomalous theta-e ridge in southerly flow to build in tonight with
increasing rain/thunder chances. an impressive pre-frontal 60-75
knot low level jet core will allow temps to peak into the mid 50s to
near 60 degrees overnight, with sfc dewpoints also well into the
50s. this in conjunction with some slight cooling aloft may support
a few hundred j/kg of mucape into areas mainly west of interstate 69
in the 03-09z window tonight. that`s not a whole lot to work with,
but cannot completely rule out some higher wind gusts (40-50 mph) in
any low topped convection in what should be a strongly
sheared/dynamic cold season environment. as for timing of higher
pops, an initial arcing band of lighter rain within the leading
elevated theta-e gradient likely clips at least western/northern
portions of the forecast area late this afternoon into early this
evening. a brief lull follows before lines and clusters of more
robust showers and potentially some embedded thunder track east
through the area mid evening through early friday morning with
rainfall totals expected to generally range between 0.25" and 0.75",
heaviest west of interstate 69. windy with scattered showers and
drizzle possible then into friday morning along the system cool
front, with dry/cool advection allowing temperatures to fall back
into the 40s friday afternoon.

the next shortwave and resulting round of cyclogenesis will eject
out of the four corners northeast into the ohio valley and great
lakes on saturday with renewed chances for rain. rainfall locally
should be rather light as deeper moisture gets shunted off well to
the east-southeast. the low also doesn`t really deepen and partially
phase with an incoming northern stream upper low until it reaches
the central great lakes. still do expected colder air and scattered
periodic snow shower chances (highest near lake mi) to wrap in on
the southern fringes of the larger circulation saturday night into
sunday. tranquil wx then follows into monday and most of tuesday
before an low-mid level trough drops southeast with chances for
light rain and snow later tuesday into wednesday.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1241 pm est thu jan 8 2026

a deep surface low was over eastern ks and was moving
north/northeast. to the east of the low, areas of showers were
moving northeast across mo and il. this activity will reach
northern indiana and bring rain to both terminals. made small
adjustments in the ongoing timing of the activity in the tafs.
otherwise, mvfr and some ifr conditions are likely to persist.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est friday
for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
676
fxus63 kdtx 081732
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1232 pm est thu jan 8 2026

.key messages...

- it will become very mild today into friday; temps in the 50s and
possibly low 60s.

- rain showers move through tonight into friday morning, with a
rumble of thunder not out of the question.

- south-southwest winds gusting 30-40 mph friday morning ahead of
cold front.

- a storm system will bring the potential for additional gusty winds
and light accumulating snow showers over weekend.

&&

.aviation...

strong warm advection precedes the arrival of low pressure tracking
into the western great lakes late this evening, with a powerful low-
level wind field passing through tonight into friday. a degree of
stability will be maintained below the low-level inversion at 2 to 3
kft, keeping the higher magnitude of wind aloft. however, southerly
wind atop this layer increases from 40-45 kt this afternoon to 50-60
kt overnight. despite some gustiness reaching the boundary layer,
elected to include llws mention in the taf overnight. showers
associated with the low arrive from the sw late this evening and
overnight ahead of the cold front. there will be a chance for
thunder with the initial showers around midnight but left ts out of
taf for now. mvfr conditions will gradually spread eastward during
this period with some pockets of ifr possible overnight. the cold
front then passes through the region midday friday, accompanied by a
line of showers and a wind shift from s to sw to nw. gusts are
likely to near or exceed 30 kt through the early afternoon,
especially along the front.

for dtw... arrival of rain showers is anticipated between 03z and
05z tonight with mvfr working in during the early morning hours.
relatively low confidence exists for ifr friday morning. core of 50+
kt wind aloft will be centered between 03z and 12z friday. shift to
sw (220 deg) wind direction around 15z then w (260 deg) around 18z
brings potential to exceed crosswind thresholds.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet after 03z tonight.

* low for thunderstorms late this evening.

* moderate for exceeding crosswind threshold between 15z and 20z
friday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 341 am est thu jan 8 2026

discussion...

as the low clouds cleared out yesterday evening from south to north,
enough lingering surface moisture and light winds around to support
fog, which has become locally dense. winds increasing toward sunrise
should help dissipate the fog by mid morning. otherwise, maxes could
be impacted a bit and fall short of 50 degrees as mid/high clouds
thicken up during the day,

upper level trough axis along the west coast of north america, with
lead shortwave tracking through texas and making the turn off to the
northeast. 500 mb height fall center will move through wisconsin
tonight. very strong southwest low level jet (70 knots) will
transport a very moist and warm airmass into the great lakes region,
as 850 mb dew pts of 9 c enter the state tonight. with the better
forcing/height falls west of the cwa, heaviest rain will miss the
area. however, modest instability (showalter index approaching zero
and mid level lapse rates of 6+ c/km) does work into the area, so a
rumble of thunder and accompanied brief heavy downpour will be
possible. cold ground and stable near surface profile should help
limit wind gusts, but local probabilistic guidance suggests gusts
around 40 mph possible tonight into friday morning, with the growing
boundary layer on friday looking to see the better potential ahead of
the cold front. if the front is slower on friday, wind gusts of 45+
mph become likely, as at least half the euro ensemble members
indicate this. right now, looks like the front will track through by
early friday afternoon. none-the-less, with 925 mb temps of 11-12 c,
the airmass potential for maxes is lower 60s. however, with the rain
showers around in the morning, a more conservative forecast of mid
50s to around 60 degrees seems warranted, which still should set the
daily record values. not a lot of cold air behind this frontal
passage, as 850 mb temps progged to bottom out around zero friday
evening.

strong northern stream upper level wave/500 mb low to track into the
northern plains late friday and into the central great lakes by
saturday evening. strong model consensus with the southern low and
moisture over the western gulf coast states staying out ahead and
reaching the mid atlantic coast on saturday. thus, phasing and
rapidly deepening low over the central-eastern great lakes does
not look to be in store, with surface pressure likely staying above
1000 mb through saturday night. none-the-less, the northern stream
height fall center is deep and does track through lower michigan.
with some lake enhancement, snow shower activity late saturday into
sunday will likely bring a couple inches of snow. the best chance for
possibly 3-4 inches looks to be over the tri-cities region,
closer/underneath the mid level circulation. deeper mixing on sunday
will lead to a breezy day, with west-northwest gusts around 35 mph
expected per euro ensemble mean meteograms.

marine...

a strong low pressure system will track from the central plains this
morning into northern lower michigan by early tomorrow morning. the
pressure gradient will quickly strengthen with the arrival of the
low, which will result in sustained wind speeds of 20 to 30 knots
late tonight into the morning hours. despite the very stable low
level profiles, the strength of the pressure gradient and low level
jet will likely produce gusts to gales over much of the open waters
of lake huron, given the favorable southeast to south fetch. have
issued a gale warning for tonight into friday.

small craft advisories remain in place across the lake huron
shoreline and ice free portions of the outer saginaw bay as
idealized southeast flow will rapidly increase wave heights. with
gusts up to 30 knots expected over lake st. clair and western lake
erie, small craft advisories have also be issued for those
locations.

widespread rain will accompany the low pressure system tonight, with
winds then veering west-northwest as a cold front moves through on
friday. high pressure rapidly builds in behind the front,
diminishing stronger winds leading into saturday.

hydrology...

widespread showers will move through southeast michigan thursday
night into friday morning. basin average total rainfall of a quarter
of inch to half an inch is expected, which should not produce
flooding as the snow pack has dissipated.

climate...

the record high temps for friday, january 9th.

detroit: 55 degrees (set in 1949)
flint: 54 degrees (set in 1939)
saginaw: 54 degrees (set in 1939)

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale warning from midnight tonight to 4 pm est friday for lhz362-
363-462-463.

small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 pm est friday for
lhz421-441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est friday for
lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est friday for
lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....tf
discussion...sf
marine.......am/sf
hydrology....sf
climate......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.