Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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831
fxus61 kcle 050216
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
916 pm est tue feb 4 2025

.synopsis...
high pressure will build into the great lakes tonight and early
wednesday before low pressure crosses the ohio valley wednesday
night into thursday. this low will lift a warm front through the
region thursday morning before the trailing cold front crosses
thursday evening. high pressure will return friday before
another low moves into the great lakes saturday into sunday.

&&

.near term /through wednesday night/...
900 pm est update...
still some very light/non-accumulating snow showers/flurries in
the southeastern part of the cwa, but otherwise dry weather is
anticipated for the remainder of the evening. no changes needed
with this update.

previous discussion...
a busy midweek period is still expected as a weak low pressure
system crosses the ohio valley and brings a quick shot of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain. the bulk of the impacts will occur
wednesday evening through the pre-dawn hours of thursday.

starting off this afternoon, a lingering mid/upper longwave trough
over the eastern great lakes and northeast u.s. is starting to lift
out in response to a fairly potent southern stream mid/upper
shortwave trough crossing the rockies. as the northern stream
eastern great lakes trough lifts out, one final shortwave is
dropping through the nw flow. this shortwave and associated surface
trough are crossing northern ohio and nw pa as of late afternoon,
with the associated pva and slight increase in low and mid-level
moisture supporting light lake-effect snow showers in the nw flow.
these snow showers and flurries will not amount to much more than a
trace to couple tenths in the highest elevation of nw pa. any
lingering flurries and snow showers will dissipate by mid evening as
broad surface high pressure drops into the central great lakes. this
will set up a dry and cold night with lows in the upper teens to low
20s.

the more noteworthy weather will come late wednesday into early
thursday as the aforementioned shortwave over the rockies this
afternoon crosses the mid mississippi valley wednesday afternoon and
the lower ohio valley wednesday night. this wave looks to largely
remain disconnected from the northern stream, but a 110+ knot h3 jet
streak traversing the central plains late wednesday will support a
slightly deepening surface low moving along a baroclinic zone from
the mid mississippi valley through southern ohio. this is a
favorable track for a shield of isentropic lift generated precip to
the north of the 850 mb low track, and that will be the case here as
a 30-35 knot low-level jet in the 850-925 mb layer develops
wednesday afternoon into wednesday night ahead of the wave. the lack
of phasing will keep the system moving fast, and the low-level jet
response is looking a little weaker than previous runs off the
latest nam and rap, leading to weaker mid-level moisture advection.
the isentropic ascent will generate precip starting wednesday
afternoon through wednesday night, but most signs now point to
mainly light precip.

in terms of timing and impacts, the latest href, nam, and rap
guidance suggests an initial band of light snow developing after 17z
wednesday afternoon, then gradually progressing northeastward. this
band looks to be most organized over the northern tier of counties
near lake erie through ne ohio and nw pa in the 20-23z timeframe. a
quick coating to 0.5 inches of snow is possible with this band,
slowing the afternoon commute in some areas. after 00z,
forecast soundings suggest a deepening warm nose as the low-
level jet strengthens. this will cause a larger area of
isentropic ascent precip to develop and move into the region
wednesday evening through wednesday night, and the deepening
warm nose will result in this falling as sleet and freezing
rain. the fast movement and light overall precip will keep ice
accretion from getting out of hand, but much of the area could
see 0.05 to 0.15 inches of ice, with localized amounts up to
0.20 inches. the latest href probabilities for greater than 0.10
inches of ice accretion between 12z wednesday and 12z thursday
are around 20% in most areas, with 30-40% probabilities in the
higher elevations of the central highlands and in interior ne
ohio. this gives confidence in a glaze of ice everywhere,
leading to very slick roads, walkways, bridges, and other
untreated surfaces, but most of the ice will be below the
damaging threshold. the other positive news is that warmer temps
at the surface should win out by 12z thursday, with precip
gradually changing to regular rain, so the worst of the impacts
will likely be before the morning commute.

even though this system is trending lighter, freezing rain is not
nearly as common as snow in northern ohio and nw pa, so plan a lot
of extra time to reach your destination wednesday night and thursday
morning, and exercise caution while walking outside since a layer of
black ice will be present on untreated surfaces. the ice will also
accumulate on vehicles left outside, further slowing the commute
process thursday morning. the latest ice amounts will continue
to be tweaked over the next 24 hours as the system moves in.

&&

.short term /thursday through friday night/...
the low pressure system bringing the wednesday night icing event
will depart to the east thursday afternoon taking the milder air in
the brief residence time of the warm sector with it. expecting a
decent spike in the temperatures in the far southern zones prior to
the flow turning westerly on the back side of the area of surface
low pressure, with 50f possible in these areas. at the beginning of
the short term forecast period around 12z thursday, only a small
portion of nw pa will be still prone to ice as the above freezing
air finally scours out the colder air in place, and should largely
be all rain by 15z. pressure rises commence with high pressure
building in form the northern plains region. temperatures will be
about 15 degrees cooler for friday with most areas below freezing
with the exception, again, of the far southern zones of the cwa.
meanwhile, as we head into friday night, upper level trough axis
will push through the northern rockies with an associated developing
colorado surface low that will become the main weather feature in
the long term/weekend time frame.

&&

.long term /saturday through tuesday/...
upper trough will quickly track across the northern plains and into
the great lakes with the surface low out of the colorado high plains
pushing towards lake erie/our cwa. this is going to be another
system similar to the wednesday night system from the near term
period, with overrunning of subfreezing air, transitioning
precipitation types, and another potential for ice in the forecast.
temperatures start well below freezing friday night, with the
isentropic ascent commencing after 15z saturday, an onset of
precipitation where snow/sleet/freezing rain is certainly a
potential once again, before transitioning to rain in the
southern zones with the arrival of the surface warm sector.
details will need to unfold to see if the northwester portions
of the cwa will get into the above freezing air and when, and
how long the freezing rain threat will last. the low pressure
system will move fairly quickly towards and out of the region,
so that bodes well for keeping things moving along. back around
freezing for high temperatures again for sunday and monday under
building high pressure heading into next week.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
any remaining mvfr ceilings in lake effect clouds/light snow
showers will improve to vfr within the next few hours. vfr will
persist through the remainder of the taf period, although
ceilings may begin to lower at southwestern terminals as a warm
front lifts northeast towards the area close to 00z thursday.
can`t rule out some light snow showers wednesday afternoon, but
don`t expect significant impacts to visibility/ceilings. any
mixed precip/freezing rain should hold off until after 00z
thursday.

winds will be out of the north/northeast at 5 to 10 knots
tonight into wednesday with winds becoming more easterly
wednesday afternoon.

outlook...non-vfr expected in rain and/or snow wednesday night into
thursday. a brief period of freezing rain is likely wednesday
night into early thursday morning. non-vfr likely in widespread
rain and/or snow on saturday.

&&

.marine...
the bulk of lake erie remains ice covered, with the only significant
partially open areas being east of the islands to cleveland and then
along the immediate shoreline just past erie pa. with that said,
variable winds under 10kts tonight through early wednesday, becoming
easterly around 10-15kts wednesday night. winds then become
southwesterly 15-20kts thursday into thursday night, turning
northwesterly friday 15-20kts. could get just enough fetch east of
the islands for 2-4ft waves to avon point in the southwesterlies.

small craft advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
due to extensive ice cover.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...garuckas
near term...garuckas/15
short term...26
long term...26
aviation...15
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 042250
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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
550 pm est tue feb 4 2025

.key messages...

- freezing rain is expected wednesday night, but some
uncertainty remains with duration and accretion amounts.

- slippery travel conditions are anticipated wednesday night and
thursday morning.

- a wintry mix is expected once again on saturday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 232 pm est tue feb 4 2025

high resolution guidance has advertised a notable south shift
in the freezing rain risk wednesday night. this does not mean
the freezing rain risk is completely gone from our forecast
area. instead, this southward shift and reduction in forecast
precipitation amounts decreased confidence where fzra will be
most prolonged and where ice accretion will be greatest. in
coordination with wpc, we have decreased forecast precipitation
(and ice) amounts with this forecast package.

this reduction in precip and residence time raises significant
questions with respects to impacts in my northwest forecast area
(e.g. south bend) and my far north (this is in stark contract to
my discussion 24 hours ago). there are some high resolution
scenarios with little to no precip and thus little to no ice
accretion in far southern mi and far northwest in. in contrast,
only a glaze of ice can cause significant impacts. because of
this uncertainty and inherent nuances of fzra events, have held
off on a winter weather advisory one last time.

the southward shift in guidance can be attributed to a few of
things. first, a shallow and less amplified shortwave. second, the
lingering influence of retreating high pressure. third, decreased
poleward moisture transport in the wake of anticipated tennessee
valley warm-sector convection. this certainly throws a wrench in the
forecast where confidence had otherwise been increasing up to this
point.

backing up a moment, a brief period of snow along the southern mi
state line remains in the cards wednesday afternoon. this is
associated with a departing 700-mb jet. this axis of snow has
shifted north slightly. overall, have retained the 20% chance of
snow.

this weekend, a very similar storm track threatens to bring a
wintry mix, including freezing rain, to the forecast area. with
a wrench in the first storm system, i`ll omit any promises for
how this weekend evolves. cooler in the wake of that system,
however, with lake effect snow possible.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 538 pm est tue feb 4 2025

vfr conditions prevail through this taf period. in approach of the
next frontal disturbance, after 20z for ksbn and after 22z wed,
cigs will drop to around 5000 ft and there will be the
possibility for some light snow showers and perhaps even some
light freezing rain showers mixing in. the better chances
however will be after 00z thu.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 050351
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1051 pm est tue feb 4 2025

.key messages...

- seasonably chilly but otherwise pleasant weather tonight through
wednesday.

- a chance of light snow by late afternoon leads into the
highlighted mixed precipitation event that begins late wednesday
evening and continues into thursday morning.

- a brief period of snow occurs ahead of a rapid transition to
longer-duration freezing rain for metro detroit while the transition
is slower north of i-69 with greater snow/sleet totals.

- colder air returns thursday night with gusty westerly winds, in
excess of 30 mph at times.

- another mixed precipitation event is possible this weekend with
potential for accumulating snowfall and additional icing.

&&

.aviation...

high pressure and dry low level air will maintain light winds and
clear skies below 5000 feet through wednesday morning. mid and high
level clouds will however remain prevalent. an upper level frontal
boundary will support a chance of light snow late wed afternoon.
given the dry low levels, ceilings are likely to remain vfr with any
light snow.

for dtw...an influx of moisture and elevated warm air will support
an 70 percent chance of freezing rain and sleet in the 07z to 12z
thursday time frame.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in freezing rain overnight wednesday into early thursday
morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 413 pm est tue feb 4 2025

discussion...

cold nw flow leading surface high pressure into the great lakes has
activated lake effect with just enough convective depth for a stray
snow shower in central lower mi and the thumb this afternoon.
daytime instability in a generously supersaturated boundary layer is
responsible for times of flurries and also a few breaks of sunshine
across the rest of se mi. these conditions fade into a seasonably
chilly but otherwise pleasant stretch of weather tonight through
wednesday morning as high pressure settles across lower mi.

temperatures wednesday struggle rising back into the 20s setting the
stage in advance of the mixed precipitation event featured over the
last several forecast cycles. consensus of model guidance maintains
the larger scale conditions favorable for a quick transition through
precipitation types wednesday evening over the bulk of central and
southern lower mi. forecast instability is centered more on qpf
beginning as soon as wednesday afternoon in the leading band of fgen
enhanced isentropic lift shown especially in hi-res models vs less
so in coarser deterministic solutions. entry level pops are
maintained toward the ohio border for some light snow that could
make it through an otherwise formidable dry layer below cloud base.
that leads into the main event later wednesday evening into thursday
morning in which qpf is trending lower for se mi. this is primarily
due to the rapid west to east progression of the already narrow and
broken precipitation axis. assuming deeper convection occurs well
south into the ohio valley, closer to the surface warm front, then
lower precipitation totals are plausible in shallower convection or
isentropically transported moisture through the mid level of the
frontal zone. the parent mid level wave and upper level jet then
drive a surge of dry air into the region that quickly brings an end
to the event in se mi. otherwise there are no changes to overall
expectations of a quick snow to freezing rain transition toward
metro detroit up toward flint and a slower transition and/or more of
a snow/sleet component farther north toward the tri cities and
northern thumb. the event remains worthy of shorter fused advisory
coverage in later updates to allow for time to confirm trends on
lower ice/snow amounts and shorter duration.

the quicker exit timing of wednesday night precipitation is
partially due to the deepening of canadian low pressure centered in
northern ontario by thursday morning. the ohio valley wave occludes
while grazing se mi which allows a temperature rebound above
freezing for a few hours followed by a surge of cold air thursday
night driven in by gusty west wind tied to the ontario system. lake
effect is activated but is once again muted by lower convective
depth and shorter fetch into se mi through friday. more significant
is the reset that polar high pressure brings for a potential repeat
performance of mixed precipitation this weekend. early indications
in extended range models suggest a larger low pressure system on a
similar tn/oh valley track capable of higher precipitation totals
for a longer duration beginning early saturday through saturday
night.

marine...

northwest wind gradually diminishes this evening into tonight as
cold air advection tapers off and high pressure builds directly into
the great lakes. small craft advisories remain in effect for the
lake huron nearshore waters where elevated wave action will persist
through the evening. light winds and waves follow for wednesday. a
low pressure system then tracks through the great lakes late
wednesday night through thursday morning, bringing light snow and a
wintry mix to the area. strong westerly winds follow this system
thursday night within the next surge of arctic air. probabilities
continue to favor gusts to gale force, especially across northern
lake huron where latest forecast data offers a 30% to 40% chance of
strong gales of up to 45 knots. a gale watch has been issued for the
whole lake from thursday afternoon to friday morning. snow
showers/squalls and freezing spray will likely accompany the arctic
air thursday night into friday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...gale watch from thursday afternoon through friday morning for
lhz361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...bt
marine.......tf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.