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Lucas and Wood Counties

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295
fxus61 kcle 122015
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
315 pm est mon nov 12 2018

...light snow showers late tonight into tuesday...

.synopsis...
low pressure over the northern gulf coast will move northeast
to the coast of new jersey by tuesday morning. high pressure to
the lee of the rockies will build east toward the local area
extending a ridge east over the region tuesday afternoon through
tuesday night. high pressure will develop over the region
wednesday and move northeast to maine by wednesday night.
another area of low pressure will develop over florida and move
northeast along the coast to maine by the end of the work week.

&&

.near term /through tuesday night/...
another round of light snow and snow showers is on the way for
northern ohio into northwest pennsylvania. a sharp upper level
trough is moving through the great lakes region over the next
24 hours. a surface cold front is moving westward across the
midwest will be pushing through northern ohio late tonight and
tuesday morning.

models have back off somewhat on moisture availability with the
synoptic system moving overhead tonight and early on tuesday.
the light qpf will be favoring areas of northwest ohio and areas
of east central ohio. we are seeing radar echoes slowly filling
in and developing but this precipitation is initially fighting
some dry area closer to the surface with dewpoint depressions a
little high at this time. eventually by mid to late evening, we
will see light precip begin to reach the ground in the form of
light rain or rain/snow mix changing to all snow as the night
goes along. we will mention the possibility of a dusting to up
to 1 inch of snowfall area wide tonight into tuesday morning
with the best chance of an inch will be northwest ohio near the
toledo area and across the snowbelt region.

the synoptic system pulls away during the day on tuesday with
northwest winds ushering in colder air. lake effect clouds and
scattered snow showers will be a common theme for tuesday
especially for the snowbelt areas. the high-res models show lake
effect snow bands organizing and impacting far northeast ohio
into northwest pennsylvania tomorrow afternoon through early on
wednesday. additional 3 to 6 inches will be possible for these
areas under the persistent bands. we will likely need a winter
weather advisory for later tomorrow into tomorrow night and will
allow the overnight shift to take a closer look at the timing,
locations, and fine tune the amounts. otherwise cold weather
tuesday with highs only in the 30s and much colder for tuesday
night with lows in the lower to middle 20s.

&&

.short term /wednesday through friday/...
could see some lingering snow showers in the snowbelt wednesday
morning, with the 850mb temps still around -12c. but much drier air
pushes in quickly as a large area of high pressure moves into the
lower lakes. the high will slide east across the lower lakes and
move off the new england coast early thursday. although models
differ some on the exact track and timing of the next system, the
trends are the same. a coastal low will track up the east coast
with a weak low or trough lifting north across the forecast area
late thursday into thursday night. precip will likely start as a mix
then transition to snow thursday evening/night. snow gradually ends
friday as high pressure moves into the upper ohio valley/lower
lakes.

&&

.long term /friday through sunday/...
the progressive pattern continues into the long term forecast. the
high over the lower lakes sags se allowing a clipper like system to
track across the great lakes saturday. although low stays north of
forecast area does drag another weak cold front across the area.
timing of the front still in doubt. gfs moves the front through
saturday while the ecmwf holds off until saturday evening. after
that another area of high pressure tracks east across the lower
lakes, giving us a couple of days of dry conditions.

&&

.aviation /18z monday through saturday/...
flying conditions will become a bit less desirable as we head
into tonight and tuesday morning. vfr conditions out there this
afternoon will gradually give way to mvfr ceilings and
visibilities late this evening and through the overnight hours.
widespread mvfr will be around through tuesday morning. bands
of light snow and snow showers will move in later this evening
through tuesday morning. the light snow may mix or start out as
light rain before changing to all snow. there will be the
potential for some ifr visibility drops to 1 to 2 miles at times
with the heavier bands of light snow. scattered snow showers
will linger through tuesday morning, especially down wind of the
lake into the higher terrain of the snowbelt region. winds will
be light and variable this afternoon with a shift to
northwesterly winds tonight and tuesday morning.

outlook...non-vfr all areas through tuesday and then through
wednesday northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania. non-vfr
possible again thursday night and friday.

&&

.marine...
winds turn to the nw tonight as a weak cold front pushes across the
lake. a small craft advisory will be needed tuesday as the
winds increase to 15 to 25 knots as a coastal low tracks ne off
the mid atlantic coast. small craft will likely continue into
wednesday, when coastal low tracks into nova scotia and high
pressure builds across the lower lakes. another small craft
advisory likely thursday as second coastal low tracks ne along
the mid atlantic coast.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...griffin
near term...griffin
short term...djb
long term...djb
aviation...griffin
marine...djb

Fulton and Henry Counties

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926
fxus63 kiwx 122009
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
309 pm est mon nov 12 2018

.synopsis...
issued at 307 pm est mon nov 12 2018

a rain and snow mix will eventually change to all snow by evening
with up to an inch of snow in many areas by morning. more
concentrated snow amounts are expected closer to lake michigan
where 2 to 4 inches of snow may fall with locally higher amounts.
below normal temperatures will continue this week into the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 307 pm est mon nov 12 2018

area of precipitation continues to expand from across nw parts of
our area southwest into il and mo. have been seeing periodic
reports of drizzle or light rain and expect this to expand through
the remainder of the afternoon. as we get towards evening, falling
temperatures will allow more of a mixture and eventually
transition to all snow. while it may start to accumulate on grassy
areas, will need to wait till closer to 6z for at/below freezing
temps to let road impacts start. main axis of concentrated precip
seems to be favoring more nw (which seems on track considering
blossoming area over the nw) where cross sections show good
isentropic lift and alignment of omega. these do stay below
favorable snow growth zones which will limit flake size and
accumulation potential. have increased pops further nw late
afternoon into tonight but for now not increased qpf a lot. by
evening, may be a dusting or so in grassy areas with up to an inch
of snow across the area during the evening as large area of light
snow moves through in response to deepening low pressure to the
east of the area. locally higher pockets of accums will occur as
noted by several upstream sites occasionally dropping to 1/4-1/2
sm. greater amounts will occur from formation of mesobanding this
evening and then lake effect across berrien and laporte county
later tonight into tuesday. after collaboration with grr, opted to
hoist winter weather advisory for berrien county from 5z tonight
through 15z to cover greatest impacts during morning rush hour as
1-3" of snow may have fallen by this point to make for slick
spots. while no other areas will be included in headlines, the
lighter snow amounts may raise havoc as well as melting and re-
freezing of snow occurs and causes patchy black ice.

snow showers will continue into tuesday morning before tapering
off. another inch or 2 is possible with nw alignment of lake
effect across berrien and la porte counties as well as somewhat
inland. by afternoon majority of snow will come to an end.

&&

.long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 307 pm est mon nov 12 2018

piece of energy from departing shortwave will quickly cut-off
tuesday night over texas, ejecting northeast into kentucky by
thursday night. while much of the energy will be transfered to rapid
cyclogenesis on the east coast a period of wrap-around/deformation
precipitation will expand across the northern ohio valley and back
into portions of the area mainly thursday night. specifics remain to
be determined, but much like today an area of light mixed precip
should arrive thurs afternoon and then quickly transition to all
snow tuesday night with potential for around a quarter inch or so of
qpf. despite some mesoband potential, thermal profiles not stellar
for good accumulation potential with ratios of less than 10:1
possible. some chance for lake effect will move in for the weekend,
but lack of better moisture will likely limit anything substantial.

&&

.aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1213 pm est mon nov 12 2018

vfr flying conditions this afternoon will deteriorate this
evening as a shortwave ejects northeast bringing snow to the
region. impacts will be felt from west to east this evening after
sunset. fuel alternate conditions expected over both terminals
overnight into the morning. visibility and ceilings slowly start
to improve by morning at fwa as system lifts north of the area but
snow remains into the morning at sbn as lake effect snow showers
linger in the area. kept ifr ceilings out of the tafs for now as
snowfall intensity is still uncertain at this time.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 am est
wednesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

synopsis...fisher
short term...fisher
long term...fisher
aviation...heidelberger


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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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000
fxus63 kdtx 121827
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
127 pm est mon nov 12 2018


.aviation...

upper level jet forcing aloft will lead to a period of frontogenesis
over southeast michigan. widespread accumulating snow is expected
tonight for much of the area south of m 46. this includes kfnt and
the terminals to the south.

vfr stratus/stratocumulus will fill in with time this afternoon as
moisture slowly coalesces along a developing frontal boundary over
southeast michigan. light snow will then spread across the area from
south to north as the jet forcing arrives. the change to the taf
forecasts was to tighten the precipitation window between 01-10z
tonight. highest snowfall rate potential will fall in the 04-07z
timeframe. total forecasted snow of around 1 inch is expected in
many areas.

for dtw...light snow will begin to fall around 01z and continue
until 10z. a period of impactful snow rates will be possible in the
04-07z time window.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings below 5000 feet this afternoon. high tonight.

* high for ptype all snow tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1113 am est mon nov 12 2018

update...

the latest surface analyses indicate a weak cold front or prefrontal
trough leaking through the central great lakes during the morning.
this is followed by a reinforcing surge of colder air/primary front
moving in from the upper midwest during the afternoon and which is
expected to merge with the prefrontal trough over the eastern great
lakes by evening. the frontal progression provides a path for a band
of snow to move from the mid mississippi valley into lower michigan
tonight. the pace of snow in upstream observations across central
missouri into central illinois, and the trend of incoming 12z model
data, support onset of light snow closer to 00z this evening in se
michigan. the morning forecast update nudges pops higher during the
evening and more into the categorical range overall for tonight but
hold total snow accumulation at 1-2 inches for now.

prev discussion...
issued at 354 am est mon nov 12 2018

discussion...

longwave trough amplification from the upper midwest into the great
lakes today into tomorrow, resulting in cyclogenesis along the east
coast. this longwave consists of a southern and northern stream wave.
the northern stream mid-level wave will send a front through
michigan this afternoon with trailing low level cold air. the
northern and southern stream waves begin to interact/phase with one
another placing southeast michigan in the left entrance region the
upper jet. this will set the stage for precipitation developing off
the mid tropospheric front draped across southeast michigan. most of
the forcing with the set up will be elevated as static stability
weakens aloft. there will be enough mid-level moisture with specific
humidity values of 2-2.5 g/kg within the 850-600 mb layers.
temperature profiles in the lower levels will be more than cold
enough by the time activation along the front occurs for snow
showers. highest snow totals will range mostly between 1-2" with
around 0.1" of qpf. weak lapse rates and lack of stronger forcing
should limit any higher snow potential. the southwest to northwest
orientation of the front will place these higher totals along and southeast
of a howell to port sanilac line with a less than an inch to the
northwest of this line. timing for this event will begin around
11pm/midnight tonight, then begin tapering off as sunrise approaches.
lows tonight dip down into the mid and upper 20s.

arctic air will surge into southeast michigan under northwest flow
tuesday in the wake of the upper low. dry mid and upper level air
will filter in, but low level moisture plume from lake michigan will
likely keep cloudy conditions and flurries in the forecast for
tuesday. high pressure will be building into the region into tuesday
night, which will keep things quiet for the mid-week. high
temperatures on tuesday and wednesday will be in the low to mid 30s.
colder overnight lows tuesday into wednesday morning with minimum
temperatures dipping into the low 20s and upper teens with wind
chills around 10 degrees.

high pressure will be lifting off to the east on thursday as a
compact mid-level close low lifts out of the lower mississippi
during the day. the wave will open up and lead to cyclogenesis along
the east coast again, while the southern wave pulls moisture
northward into the great lakes. this will bring another round of
precipitation on the northern end of the low lifting through the ohio
valley. still some uncertainty with how this even plays out with
diurnally driven rain and snow chances later in the day on thursday
into friday morning.

after the southern stream low passes to the east, the northern
stream will send a cold front through michigan. northwest flow
behind the cold front will bring potential for lake effect activity
to start the weekend. temperatures saturday and sunday will continue
to be well below normal with high temperatures topping out in the
mid 30s.

marine...

there will be a general weakening of the southwest winds this
morning before they back to the northwest during the afternoon with
the passage of a trough. developing low pressure over the east coast
tonight and the arrival of another round of arctic air will support
an increase in the winds tonight into tuesday. there will continue
to be some veering in the direction to north-northwest tonight
before backing toward the northwest on tuesday. despite the strong
cold air advection, gradient winds will not be too strong. so the
probabilities of gusts to gale force on lake huron will be very low.
the chances for gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range will however be
quite high, especially tuesday afternoon through tuesday night.
winds will weaken on wednesday with high pressure expanding across
the ohio valley. the direction will back to the southwest by
wednesday night, with a southwest gradient increasing into thursday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
update.......bt
discussion...aa
marine.......sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.