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Lucas and Wood Counties

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894
fxus61 kcle 280014
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
814 pm edt mon may 27 2024

.synopsis...
a cold front will exit east of the area this evening. another
cold front will move across the area on tuesday. high pressure
will build from the northwest, starting on wednesday and become
centered over the great lakes for thursday and friday.

&&

.near term /through tuesday night/...
8:10 pm update:
showers and thunderstorms along the cold front have exited east.
still some 30-40 mph wind gusts across our eastern counties,
though these are on their way down and will continue decreasing
tonight. just minor tweaks to the forecast through the overnight
to account for recent trends / observations. did not alter pops
much on tuesday though did attempt to time a subtle surface
trough that will drop across the area during the late morning
and afternoon for a brief window of higher pops. this did
briefly introduce likely wording for showers across more of
interior ohio, with likely wording being retained from far
northeast oh into northwest pa where it was already in. with
chilly air aloft heating from the very strong late may sun will
lead to modest instability by tuesday afternoon. this will
likely lead to a few thunderstorms developing among the showers.
the chilly air aloft could encourage a bit of small hail and
gusty (but sub-severe) winds with a couple of the storms.

previous discussion...
a cold front stretches from cleveland to mount gilead and will
push east through the afternoon hours and out of the forecast
area by this evening. some showers and an isolated storm or two
are developing ahead of the front in northeast ohio and
northwest pa and will be a short term threat for brief heavy
rain and perhaps a stronger wind gust. with the strong wind
field in place across the region, it may not be that difficult
to get a quick burst of wind with these small showers and
storms. otherwise, there will be wind gusts to 40-45 mph through
this evening with the cold front as some stronger synoptic
winds are being brought to the surface. behind the front, low
clouds will enter the region as the surface low occludes and
moves northeast into canada. overall, the area should be dry
tonight behind the frontal passage, but some weak convergence
and residual moisture into nw pa may allow for some minor rain
chances.

for tuesday and tuesday night, an upper trough will dig into the
great lakes region with a pair of shortwaves that will ripple
through the trough and enhance the flow. another cold front will
move through the area on tuesday with the upper trough and
scattered rain showers and perhaps some marginal thunder will be
possible on tuesday. pops are fairly generic on tuesday with
both the scattered nature of showers and not much to key in on
for specific timing at this time. have pops increasing to likely
on tuesday night with the main trough axis and cold front
pushing through, which should allow for a window that is more
favorable for rain. temperatures through the period will be
cooler than normal with clouds and several shots of rain
preventing much heating with a cold air advection pattern. lows
will be in the 50s tonight and tuesday night and highs on
tuesday will likely not reach 70 degrees.

&&

.short term /wednesday through thursday night/...
another upper level wave of low pressure rotates through the great
lakes from the northwest with an accompanying surface low and cold
front wednesday morning through the afternoon hours. tracking a main
band of low/mid level f-gen with this system moving through the
area. not a ton of instability with this, but thunderstorms will be
possible, and only expecting general thunder at this time. cold
front south of the cwa by 00z thursday. another axis drops into the
area wednesday night, but dry with mid/upper level drying in the
wake of the previous axis. upper low finally exits thursday/thursday
night as surface high pressure builds in simultaneously. the upper
trough axes and the canadian high pressure system brings with them a
cooler airmass into the region, and most locations for the short
term forecast period will not be able to reach the 70f mark,
although low 70s could sneak into the nw oh zones thursday.

&&

.long term /friday through monday/...
high pressure drifts southeastward allowing for return flow to the
region and gradual warming into the long term period. ridging aloft
gives way to a more zonal flow pattern into the weekend, and
slightly more unsettled conditions. lots of spread in the details
for now, but could see a late saturday/saturday night upper trough
axis, followed by influences from a developing lee side low pressure
system with a possible warm frontal interaction for our area. pops
on the gradual increase during this period, and by the end of the
weekend, likely back to near 80f or into the lower 80s.

&&

.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
a mix of mainly vfr with some patchy mvfr ceilings persist this
evening. back edge of a stratus deck is approaching tol and fdy
and will spread east this evening. this clearing likely won`t
get to cle, yng or eri tonight, though locations farther
southwest should see a good period of vfr as a result. have cle,
yng and eri dropping to mvfr at some point this evening or
tonight as a combination of nocturnal cooling and some lake
moisture is likely to lower cloud bases. a series of troughs
will work through on tuesday. have most sites dropping to mvfr
for a time tuesday morning as stratus returns ahead of these
features. daytime heating should lead to the stratus lifting to
a mainly vfr cumulus deck later in the morning into the
afternoon. these cumulus will grow into scattered to numerous
showers. still tough to pin down exact timing and placement of
showers so largely used vcsh mentions, though felt confident
enough at eri, cak and yng to include at least brief prevailing
showers when showers should be most numerous. cold air aloft
will lead to enough instability for isolated thunderstorms,
especially inland from lake erie. included vcts at cak and yng
where thunder potential appears highest. eri may drop to ifr
ceilings at times due to flow off the chilly eastern lake erie.
otherwise, once ceilings return to vfr expect only brief/spotty
vsby restrictions with any heavier showers or thunderstorms
through tuesday evening.

gusty west winds should decrease to 6 to 12 knots with fewer
gusts overnight. winds shift more west-northwest at 7 to 14
knots with a few gusts to around 20 knots on tuesday as the
troughs work through the region.

outlook...periodic non-vfr conditions may exist in scattered
showers and thunderstorms through wednesday.

&&

.marine...
expecting an increase in wind speeds behind a cold front sweeping
across lake erie out of the west at 20kts gusting to 30kts through
the evening and tonight. water levels could drop significantly in
the western basin for a brief period of time, and have a low water
advisory in place as a result. also in place is a small craft
advisory for these winds as well as wave heights 4-6ft in the
nearshore zones. winds to ease tuesday, but will become
northwesterly, so portions of the sca will remain until the winds
fall below 10kts tuesday evening/tuesday night. the onshore flow
will be reinforced wednesday with another cold front with winds back
to around 15-20kts, easing through the end of the week. likely not
going to get out of the onshore wind regime until friday as high
pressure over the area finally moves overhead and to the southeast
next weekend.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...beach hazards statement until 4 am edt tuesday for ohz003-007.
beach hazards statement through tuesday afternoon for ohz009-
010.
beach hazards statement through tuesday evening for ohz011-012-
089.
pa...beach hazards statement through tuesday evening for paz001.
ny...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am edt tuesday for lez142-143.
low water advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lez142>144-
162>164.
small craft advisory until 5 pm edt tuesday for lez144-145.
small craft advisory until 8 pm edt tuesday for lez146>149.

&&

$$

synopsis...sefcovic
near term...sefcovic/sullivan
short term...26
long term...26
aviation...sullivan
marine...26

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
618 pm edt mon may 27 2024

.key messages...

- cloudy skies give way to peeks of sun this evening before
clouds return north of us-30 tonight. showers are possible
north of us-30 tonight as well.

- another chance for showers and a non-severe thunderstorm or
two will be possible tuesday and a few lingering showers will
be around east of in-15 on wednesday.

- dry weather occurs thursday and friday.

- hazardous swimming conditions for lake michigan beaches in la
porte county in indiana and berrien county in michigan today
and then again wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 223 pm edt mon may 27 2024

a broad trough anchored by an upper low in central canada is
situated across the central conus. this trough contains various
broad areas of vorticity with one having pushed out of the area this
morning. behind this, an area of subsidence sets up around midday
into the afternoon drying out the column into the evening. at this
point, a second shortwave rounds the base of the trough overhead and
provides more showers. while embedded thunder is possible,
instability is expected to be meager enough to keep this just rain.
yet another shortwave rounds the trough for tuesday. now, behind the
first shortwave, there may be enough breaks in the clouds to allow
for the generation of instability for thunderstorms tuesday midday
and afternoon, but shear will be lacking to make it sub-severe. by
wednesday, the back edge of the forcing of the unsettled weather can
be seen, but it`ll likely take until the evening to get here. so,
expect areas east of in-15 to have clouds and lingering rain and
maybe an embedded storm. this is in contrast to areas west of in-15
that have a better chance to see breaks in the clouds and a drying
trend.

the best chance to break out of the unsettled weather occurs on
thursday as the mid level ridge that was knocking on our door on
wednesday finally nudges its way in. this will provide dry weather
for thursday as surface high pressure is overhead. high pressure
slides eastward on friday allowing our 70 degree temperatures in the
first part of the week to trend warmer for friday, reaching the mid
70s.

next saturday could start the day cloudy as a warm front attempts to
move northward through the area. as it does so, rain, without
instability moves through. this may stunt warming and could make 80
degrees harder to come by. temperatures on sunday and chances for
showers/storms will be dependent on if that warm front can rise
north. will handle sunday with the nbm with lower confidence on
outcomes this far out, but just know that this is a changeable
day forecast-wise.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 618 pm edt mon may 27 2024

cool, cyclonic, west-northwest flow will persist through the
period with primarily vfr conditions, though a period of high
mvfr stratocu remains possible later tonight into tuesday
morning. a couple of mid level disturbances will also move
through with a few showers possible, mainly at ksbn tonight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for miz177-
277.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 280009
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
809 pm edt mon may 27 2024

.key messages...

- additional showers and a few thunderstorms return to the area
tonight and tuesday as unsettled conditions persist.

_ there remains a chance of showers tuesday night into wednesday,
before drier conditions return to finish the work week.

- temperatures will remain near to below average throughout the
midweek period.

&&

.aviation...

large upper level low pressure system and cold air aloft will bring
periodic rain showers to southeast michigan throughout the taf
period. two time periods of specific interest for more organized
precipitation potential. the first one is this evening for the
northern taf sites as deformation forcing will dig through the
region. the second time period of interest will be after 19z tuesday
as diurnal heating will lead to instability showers and possible
thunderstorms over southeast michigan. prevailing mvfr ceilings
heights with stratus is expected.

for dtw/d21 convection...there is a chance of thunderstorms tuesday
afternoon. confidence is low on coverage and timing.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and tuesday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 323 pm edt mon may 27 2024

discussion...

larger scale pattern will lend to unsettled conditions over the next
48 hours, as episodic bouts of meaningful height falls occur within
broader upper level troughing. holiday weekend ending on a cool/damp
note as expansive region of low level moisture translates into some
areas of light rain/drizzle late this afternoon. plume of deeper
moisture looming just to the northwest will pivot back into
southeast michigan through the course of the night, lead by veering
low to mid level flow toward the northwest in the wake of a trough
passage. supportive upward vertical motion as the advective process
engages ongoing dcva will bring an increase in shower coverage
through the evening hours, mainly north of i-69. some degree of
southward expansion possible with time overnight as forced ascent
improves upon arrival of the mid level wave noted on water vapor
ejecting across mn/ia.

daytime heating offers a diurnal boost to convective shower/t-storm
potential tuesday, as lapse rates steepen modestly within the
background of a perturbed mid level environment and sufficient
moisture depth. overall convective vigor muted by lack of greater
instability, but a few instances of small hail plausible with the
healthiest late day convective cores given the suppressed freezing
levels. a more seasonable late may thermal profile now entrenched -
highs 70-75f. stronger mid level wave of central canadian origin
arrives tuesday night. greater corridor of dcva may remain just
south and west given a southeast trajectory, but at least a glancing
shot of meaningful forced ascent maintains a higher probability for
shower production lasting into early wednesday morning.

a notably cooler airmass funnels into the region wednesday as
northerly flow attains greater depth with time. daylight readings
holding in the 60s, with some upper 50s in the thumb region given
the trajectory off lake huron. pace of accompanying dry air
advection dictates whether one final round of convective showers
ultimately emerge with daytime heating, greater potential would
exist with southward extent. high pressure governed conditions then
take control for the late week period, offering a stretch of
tranquil wx and seasonable temperatures.

marine...

upper low and weakening surface reflection migrate over northern
lower michigan this afternoon, maintaining shower chances for the
northern half of lake huron through tonight. further south, passage
of a cold front earlier today has led to lighter and more scattered
showers in comparison to this morning. overnight a second upper
wave, currently over minnesota, dives toward the ohio valley which
effectively draws another round of showers into the great lakes by
early tuesday morning. western flank of the departing pressure
gradient also maintains gusty northwest flow of 20-25 knots. small
craft advisories continue as a result. unsettled and cooler weather
continues through mid-week until high pressure builds in from canada
late week.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 4 am edt tuesday for lhz442-443.

small craft advisory until 4 pm edt tuesday for lhz421-422-441.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 am edt tuesday for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 am edt tuesday for lez444.

low water advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...mr
marine.......mv


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.