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Lucas and Wood Counties

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000
fxus61 kcle 221421
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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
921 am est tue jan 22 2019

.synopsis...
high pressure will move east of the area today and low pressure
will track from the central plains to the central great lakes by
midday wednesday. the resulting southerly flow will warm
temperatures and bring rain across the area tuesday night into
wednesday. some wintry mix is possible. beyond mid week a series
of clippers will keep snow chances in the forecast and keep
temperatures at or below normal.

&&

.near term /through wednesday/...
9:00 am update...the wind chill advisory was allowed to expire
for the entire area. a few areas may see wind chill values
hovering around -5 for the next hour or two, but the trend is
warming for the rest of the day. otherwise...current forecast
looks on track with no changes made.

with this early morning update have removed the western portion
of the wind chill advisory. as expected temperatures have warmed
and even with the increase winds, current wind chills are warmer
than -10. across north-central oh there is a corridor of colder
temperatures and elevated winds. wind chills over the next
couple of hours could still be between -10 and -15. further
east winds are lighter. previous discussion follows.

wind chills: temperatures have begun to warm across northwest
oh as was expected. winds are at a lull before picking up from
the southeast. we very well may be be able to cancel the wind
chill advisory a few hours early. the rest of the wind chill
advisory area will likely expire on time. portions of eastern oh
and inland nw pa may touch the -10 wind chill criteria now that
skies have cleared, temperatures have dropped, and winds picked
up a little. not looking to do that brief of a wind chill
advisory for intermittent criteria wind chills.

cloud cover is streaming across western oh and overall, on the
eastern flank of the cloud cover shield from the emerging system
from the central/southern plains, skies will be variably cloudy.
clouds will thicken quickly by evening and precipitation will be
approaching northwest oh.

wintry mix: this round of forecast models have slowed the onset
of precipitation just a few hours. have continued to keep the
warm up conservative with the widespread snow pack, but the warm
and moist advection on a strong low level jet will bring
temperatures above freezing during the evening hours. so the
concern is initially with the precipitation onset and the wintry
mix that could result. the first area of concern is northwest
oh/toledo area where precip will reach first. have a coordinated
winter weather advisory for this evening for the wintry mix.
the other area of potential wintry mix will be across extreme
northern oh and northwest pa. confidence is lower at this point
and have held off on an advisory issuance. concern remains
though for much of the area if initial precip is light and
freezes on contact with the cold surface temperatures. we will
need to keep a watchful eye on the timing and intensity of the
precip and also surface temperatures. even if the obs are coming
in with slightly above freezing readings, the surface
temperatures may not be warm enough. by wednesday morning
temperatures will be in the upper 30s/low 40s and peak near
midday/early afternoon in the lower 40s.

overall looking at a half to three quarters of an inch of rain.
with temperatures and dewpoints coming up above freezing and the
wind, will lose some of the snowpack. drainage may be an issue
with the snow pack/piles.

rain will be tapering from west to east later wednesday with the
passage of the cold front. temperatures will begin to drop.
will begin a transition to light snow or freezing drizzle on the
backside of the precipitation shield.

&&

.short term /wednesday night through friday night/...
low pressure will be tracking northeast out of the great lakes
into ontario/quebec wednesday night, with a cold front most of
the way through the area. the models seem to be a bit more
aggressive with pushing the front out of the area overnight
wednesday with much drier air building in from the west. the
latest ecmwf is still hanging the front farther west with a
stronger, slower and more westward mid atlantic low tracking
towards new england. have continued to trend pops downward
through the overnight, with mainly chance pops across the
western half of the area after 06z. the p- type transition
should be fairly steady from rain to snow post- frontal, however
have included a chance of freezing drizzle behind the front
with a fairly shallow moisture profile accompanying the arctic
airmass. ridging will try to nose northeast from the ohio valley
into the area thursday, before another low tracking southeast
through the northern great lakes brings an arctic front towards
the area. the frontal forcing itself looks fairly week, but
enough moisture should be present to warrant slight chance/low
chance pops everywhere, with higher chance to likely pops in
favored lake effect areas thursday and thursday night. the lake
effect will slowly diminish friday as winds back with high
pressure building east through the ohio valley. another clipper
will dive towards the area friday night, but will generally be
weakening as it move into the area. will opt for chance pops
everywhere friday night, with a touch higher pops across the
primary snowbelt. highs in the upper 20s to low 30s thursday
will plummet to the low/mid teens for friday behind the arctic
front. lows will be in the lower single digits friday night
inland to the upper single digits near the lake.

&&

.long term /saturday through tuesday/...
a series of shortwaves will dive towards/through the area this
weekend into early next week with predominant northwest flow
from a large eastern conus trough. models are really all over
the place with the evolution/phasing of these waves across the
region, so generally low confidence in any specifics on
widespread snow potential over the weekend. however, models have
a rather consistent signal for a more potent clipper moving
across the southern great lakes sometime monday, which looks
like the best potential for widespread accumulation snowfall
during this period. otherwise, kept the forecast fairly similar
with low chance/slight chance pops during the entire period.
temps will slowly moderate from highs near 20 saturday to highs
near 30 on monday, as downstream amplification from the stronger
clipper system allows for some brief low level return flow/waa.

&&

.aviation /12z tuesday through saturday/...
vfr conditions will last through the daylight hours with
mid/high clouds thickening and lowering. milder air will
overspread the region tonight bringing rain to the terminals
tonight. at onset there may be a brief wintry mix. surfaces will
be cold to start too. the best chance of the wintry mix
occurring is across tol and maybe eri. conditions will be mvfr
through 12z wednesday in the rain. southeast winds will increase
today and veer southerly for tonight. the south winds will have
minor gusts of approx 25 knots tonight.

outlook...occasional non-vfr tuesday night through saturday.

&&

.marine...
rapid ice growth has occurred on the western basin over the
last 48 hours, with significant ice growth over the last 24
hours in the us waters north of vermilion to willowick per
latest satellite images. winds will start to increase out of the
south tonight through wednesday as low pressure tracks
northeast through the central lakes. this will likely push much
of the central basin ice northward towards canada, and will
perhaps disrupt/shift the ice pack northward in the western
basin with air temperatures warming into the upper 30s to low
40s. winds will generally becoming west to northwest behind a
cold front wednesday night, continuing into the weekend as
various clipper systems/cold fronts push across the lake.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 1 am est
wednesday for ohz003-006.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...oudeman
near term...oudeman/riley
short term...greenawalt
long term...greenawalt
aviation...oudeman
marine...griffin

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
658 am est tue jan 22 2019

.synopsis...
issued at 446 am est tue jan 22 2019

an approaching storm system will bring a mixture of snow, sleet
and freezing rain turning to a period of freezing rain for much of
the area this afternoon into this evening. temperatures will
eventually climb above freezing rain late this afternoon before
becoming just rain later tonight as temperatures warm above
freezing. some patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle will continue
into wednesday as colder air begins to build back in. another
intrusion of very cold arctic air is expected by thursday and
friday with additional chances of snow and lake effect snow
showers.

&&

.short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 446 am est tue jan 22 2019

...slippery afternoon commute expected for some areas...

warm air advection underway as expected with temperatures slowly
climbing across the area after bottoming out in the single digits
above and below zero. mid clouds have moved over the area but a
brief break in clouds is shown southwest across portions of central
il and in. expect any breaks to quickly fill in through the morning
as precipitation begins to approach from the west and south. air
temperatures will continue to climb through the day, likely reaching
freezing by late afternoon in the far sw and then expanding ne from
there. low level thermal profiles all point towards plenty of warm
air aloft for liquid precip (maybe some periods of sleet or snow at
onset). what is of greater concern (and the largest forecast
challenge) is how fast surface temperatures will warm today given
expected cloud cover, shallow arctic dome and cold ground/roads.
given these concerns, a winter weather advisory was coordinated and
hoisted for portions of the area. the threat will start in the west
and north first with precipitation eventually working northeast.
while all parts of the forecast area will likely see at least some
glaze, the advisory was focused where greater amounts and longer
duration looks to occur. up to a tenth of an inch of ice is possible
in the advisory area with areas north of the toll road possibly
seeing higher amounts given longer period below freezing. eventually
the warm air will win out and heavier rainfall will move in,
especially after midnight. the cold ground and melting snowpack will
likely also lead to ponding of water in some areas.

&&

.long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 446 am est tue jan 22 2019

few changes to long term as arctic air will quickly rush back in at
the start of the period as low pressure tracks into northern
ontario. the steady rain will shift east during weds morning with
the cold front moving through during the afternoon. depending on
final track of the surface low and how much warm air moves in, could
see some fog develop, especially southeast given the cold ground.
nothing in the grids for now.

a series of disturbances will then move through the trough
and bring a colder blast with each until we hit the bottom for
friday (highs single digits and teens) and lows near or below zero
thurs and fri night. lake effect snow showers are also expected
through much of the period. will need to be some fine tuning of
these in the next couple of days, but for now keeping focus on short
term period concerns. some moderation tries to take place towards
the end of the period ahead of the next deeper trough set to move in
the plains by monday/monday night.

&&

.aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z wednesday morning)
issued at 652 am est tue jan 22 2019

made just minor changes to the ongoing tafs, including adding a
tempo group for fzra at fwa. otherwise, moisture will spread
north over a very cold dome of air this afternoon into tonight.
though some breaks in the clouds are likely this morning, skies
will become cloudy with freezing rain developing by early evening
as a warm layer spreads over the cold air. can not rule out a
brief period of sleet or snow at the onset of precipitation, but
have opted to leave this out given the latest model soundings
supporting just zr with a warm layer >3c and a significant
positive energy area between 30 and 50 j/kg by 23z. have
maintained llws given a 70kt low level jet with speed and
directional shear.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 11 pm est
this evening for inz007-009.

winter weather advisory from 1 pm est /noon cst/ this afternoon
to 10 pm est /9 pm cst/ this evening for inz003>006-008-
012>016.

mi...winter weather advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 11 pm est
this evening for miz080-081.

winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est
this evening for miz077>079.

oh...winter weather advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 11 pm est
this evening for ohz001-002-004-005.

lm...small craft advisory until 5 am est thursday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

synopsis...fisher
short term...fisher
long term...fisher
aviation...skipper


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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 221057
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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
557 am est tue jan 22 2019


.aviation...

south-southeast winds will increase through the morning as the
gradient increases, with a subtle deepening mixed layer supportive
of wind gusts a little over 20 knots. there will be a strong
transport of a warm moist airmass later this afternoon into tonight
preceding an approaching low pressure system. the degree of warm
air advection will support a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow.
as for ptk and fnt, freezing rain, sleet and some snow will be the
dominate precip type from roughly 22-01z into the overnight. low
level warming will then transition the precip over toward all rain
approaching daybreak wed. as for mbs, snow and sleet will be the
dominate precip type; possibly beginning as early as 21z and
persisting through most of the night. several inches (3 to 6) of wet
snow are possible at mbs. in addition to the precipitation, the
moisture advection will also result in a steady lowering of ceilings
heights through the night.

for dtw...the onset of precipitation will be a little later at metro
in comparison to locations farther north as the residual dry arctic
air will take a little longer to dislodge. by the time the better
moisture arrives (02-03z) the elevated warm layer should be deep
enough to start precip off as freezing rain, possibly with some
sleet. there will be a steady rise in sfc temps reaching at or above
freezing between 04z and 07z. strong winds (above 40 knots) just off
the shallow stable sfc layer will lead to low level wind shear
conditions during the evening.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in precip type as freezing rain this evening. high in
precip type as all rain overnight tonight through wednesday
morning.

* high for ceilings below 5,000 tonight and wednesday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 302 am est tue jan 22 2019

discussion...

the arctic high/ridge held on through the evening across southeast
michigan, allowing temperatures to dip below zero across many
locations once again. the warm start to january is quickly being
erased, and based on the expected much below normal temperatures for
the weekend, it is apparent the month of january will end up being
normal, if not below normal.

positive tilted longwave trough tracking through the rockies this
morning, with good deal of upper level energy/pv rounding the base of
the trough across the northern mexican border. the consolidated
upper level pv center to eject and track into the central plains late
today, and through northern illinois tomorrow morning and into
northern lower michigan wednesday afternoon.

waves of isentropic ascent today into tonight over southeast
michigan, with good moisture advection, as 5 g/kg of specific
humidity in the 850-700 mb layer arrives by midnight. 00z nam has
trended colder/flatter with wave, with areas north of i-69 basically
staying frozen/below freezing through the night, with really a
snow/sleet debate as marginal warm layer sneaks in. the issue is the
850 mb front is lit up along the i-69 corridor as the nose of the 70+
knot translates northeast, so may not be a lot of qpf north of there
if this solution verifies. also, if the lift is intense enough along
the i-69 corridor, could be looking at precipitation staying mostly
snow/sleet for most of the evening/night. not an easy forecast, as
regional gem remains stronger with the surface low (995 mb)/low level
circulation tracking farther north through central lake michigan,
which allows the 4 c warm layer at 925 mb to reach saginaw bay late
wednesday morning. fv3-gfs is similar to regional gem. even with the
slower/deeper solution, should be good evaporative cooling during the
onset this evening into tonight before the good warm surge arrives
wednesday morning. all locations in southeast michigan should start
out as snow/wintry mix before the south to north transition occurs to
rain, but again, north of i-69 there remains a question if a
complete changeover to rain will even occur by 12z wednesday. after
looking at the latest rap and euro as well, planning on going with
winter weather advisory for areas along and north of i-69 for 1-5
inches of snow, higher amounts likely midland/bay/huron counties, but
amount of sleet mixing in could be a factor. south of i-69, favor
little in the way of snow (less than 1 inch), with more of a
sleet/freezing rain mix changing to all rain around or just after
midnight. with the frozen ground and what appears to be at least a
couple hours of freezing rain, have elected to issue winter weather
advisory for freezing rain this evening, with ice accumulations of a
tenth or slightly higher along the higher terrain of
lenawee/washtenaw/livingston/oakland, with just a glaze of ice for
wayne/monroe/macomb counties.

mid level dry slot advancing over southeast michigan during
wednesday will shut off the rain, as colder/snow deformation looks
to be just north of tri-cities region. still may be enough low level
moisture to support drizzle as temps rise to around 40 degrees for
highs.

strong cold advection in the evening as winds shift to the
west/northwest, and 850 mb temps lower to the negative lower teens
toward midnight. with any lingering moisture on roads, icy spots
could develop.

per 00z euro...another brutal shot of cold air looks to be arriving
to close out the work week, as deep/cold upper level low (490 dam or
lower at 500 mb) moves over ontario. 850 mb temps plummeting into the
mid negative 20s again on friday over southeast michigan, with
enough wind to support potential wind chills of -15 f or colder once
again. bitter cold to hang around for the weekend, with still a few
opportunities for snow into early new week.

marine...

low pressure will lift from the southern plains to northern
illinois by wednesday morning. the low will then traverse central
lower michigan during the day wednesday. there will be a
strengthening southerly gradient ahead of this low pressure system.
the winds will actually increase to gale force by late morning and
will persist into early this evening. while probabilities remain
high that gusts will reach 35 knot gales, the probability for gusts
to 40 knots gales is low. the winds will gradually decrease tonight
due both to a subtle weakening of the gradient and low level
warming, thus reducing over-lake mixing depths. winds will veer to
the west-northwest late wednesday into wed night as the surface low
departs east of lake huron.

another intrusion of arctic air is forecast to overspread the great
lakes thurs night into friday. this will bring another round of
gusty winds (possibly gale force) and high probabilities of heavy
freezing spray.

hydrology...

there will be an influx of relatively high moisture preceding a low
pressure system that will traverse lower michigan on wednesday
afternoon. the initial surge of moisture will result in a mix of
snow, sleet and freezing rain across the area late this
afternoon/evening before strong warm air advection transitions the
precip over to rain tues night/wed morning. the rain will come to an
end wednesday afternoon. there is a high probability that total
liquid equivalent precipitation totals will range from a half inch
to three quarters of an inch across the area. probabilities for
precip totals approaching an inch drop off dramatically. if total
precip does approach an inch, there may be some localized flooding
concerns in urban detroit where warming temps will also result in
some snow melt.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory from 6 pm to 10 pm est this evening for
miz060>062.

winter weather advisory from 2 am to 5 am est wednesday for
miz060>062.

winter weather advisory from 7 pm to 10 pm est this evening for
miz063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

winter weather advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est this
evening for miz047>049-053>055.

winter weather advisory from 2 am to 8 am est wednesday for
miz047>049-053>055.

lake huron...gale warning from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this evening for
lhz361>363-441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....sc
discussion...sf
marine.......sc
hydrology....sc


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.