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Lucas and Wood Counties

link
000
fxus61 kcle 172004
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
404 pm edt wed aug 17 2022

.synopsis...
an upper-level trough will begin to pivot east of the area
tonight into thursday. high pressure will build over the area
thursday through friday, before low pressure approaches from the
west over the weekend.

&&

.near term /through thursday night/...
a broad upper-level trough will remain anchored over the lower
great lakes through tonight before pivoting east by thursday
afternoon. scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will
dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating/instability near or
after sunset tonight. can`t rule out a few light showers along
the lakeshore in ne oh/nw pa overnight as a land breeze
develops, but the best chance of precip will be offshore over
lake erie. patchy fog is possible during the pre-dawn hours and
shortly after sunrise thursday thanks to clearing skies, light
winds, and radiational cooling and expect improving conditions
as diurnal heating takes place by mid-morning.

showers may develop inland as the trough begins to move east,
but most locations will experience dry weather thursday as high
pressure begins to move in from the west. expect any precip to
exit to the east by early thursday evening, with dry weather
anticipated through thursday night.

overnight lows will fall into the mid to upper 50s at inland
locations tonight, but spots near the lake may remain in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. a warming trend will begin to take place
thursday as highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s and
thursday night lows remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s area-
wide.

&&

.short term /friday through saturday night/...
the short term period begins with fair weather on friday as high
pressure continues its eastward track out of our area. highs on
friday will be in the 80s across the cwa with the highest
temperatures located northwest ohio. low temperatures friday night
will reach the mid 60s with increased cloud cover from the south
east. moisture enters the region from the southeast overnight from a
low pressure system moving along the atlantic coast. this will lead
to slight chance rain showers south of us 30 overnight friday.
precipitation chances in the form of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms increase saturday afternoon and continue through
the remainder of the short term as an upper level shortwave and
accompanying surface low pressure system track into the region from
the upper midwest. scattered convective activity will increase
saturday afternoon when daytime heating and instability are at their
greatest, becoming isolated by saturday evening. high temperatures
on saturday will reach the mid 80s, with overnight lows in the low
to mid 60s. it will be rather humid this weekend with dew points in
the mid to upper 60s as low-level warm and moist air advection
enters on the backside of the exiting high pressure.

&&

.long term /sunday through wednesday/...
unsettled weather continues to be the main story through much
of the long term period as the upper level trough slowly moves
across the region. additional shower and thunderstorm activity
will continue through tuesday as a cold front drifts into our
cwa monday and tuesday, acting as a forcing mechanism for shower
and thunderstorm development. shower and storm coverage will be
the greatest during the afternoon with daytime heating aiding
in instability. highs through the long term will hover around
the upper 70s to near 80 degrees, with the coolest highs across
central ohio and northwest pa. overnight lows in the long term
will reach the low to mid 60s.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
expect vfr through this evening, although there may be spotty
non-vfr with any scattered showers that move directly over
terminals. coverage is a bit too scattered and disorganized to
warrant anything more aggressive than vcsh at this time.
amendments may be needed to introduce -shra if confidence
increases. showers should taper off near or after sunset. patchy
fog may develop at southeastern terminals between 09z and 13z
thursday morning, which could result in a period of non-vfr
visibilities at kmfd/kcak/kyng. otherwise, expect vfr conditions
through the remainder of the taf period.

north to northeast winds 6 to 12 knots will become light and
variable tonight. expect light and variable winds to persist
through the remainder of the taf period.

outlook...non-vfr possible in isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms thursday afternoon and again saturday afternoon
through sunday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure begins to build over lake erie toward the end of the
week. this high pressure exits eastward to begin the weekend as a
surface low pressure approaches lake erie from the upper midwest.
variable winds at 10 knots or less with waves less than 2 feet will
remain across the lake through saturday. winds become southerly at 5
to 10 knots on saturday night through monday with waves remaining at
less than 2 feet. waterspouts remain possible on thursday morning as
lake-induced instability may allow for lake effect showers with
embedded waterspouts to form.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...maines
near term...maines
short term...iverson
long term...iverson
aviation...maines
marine...iverson

Fulton and Henry Counties

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000
fxus63 kiwx 171820
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
220 pm edt wed aug 17 2022

.synopsis...
issued at 218 pm edt wed aug 17 2022

mainly dry weather will continue through friday with a slight
warming trend for the remainder of the work week. chances of
showers and thunderstorms will increase for the weekend.

&&

.short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 218 pm edt wed aug 17 2022

only weather item to have a brief focus on this period will be
yet another trough dropping south with some showers/storms in
eastern lwr mi that may drop down into areas east of i-69 and most
likely into nw ohio and maybe hillsdale county. should end by 00z
with loss of heating, but like last night can`t rule out going a
bit longer. otherwise tonight into thursday will be quiet as ridge
finally settles in and shifts track of these pesky waves further
east.

&&

.long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 218 pm edt wed aug 17 2022

ridge will remain in control through friday night before northern
stream trough makes its drop through the plains and into the great
lakes bringing periodic chances for showers and some thunderstorms.
for the weekend and possibly into the start of the next work week.
as has been discussed at length recently timing/speed issues remain
with the models with trends over the past couple days to continue
pushing for a later start to the main threat and subsequent later
end. as mentioned from overnight discussion, sat coverage of precip
may not be very impressive with better chances possibly leaning more
towards sunday/sunday night. extended period of pops continue
warranted sat-mon with some likely pops intermixed in the forecast
(and likely to keep shifting).

trough should finally start to exit by tuesday but a few signals
that maybe it still has some lingering impacts through the rest of
the period.

&&

.aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z thursday afternoon)
issued at 1238 pm edt wed aug 17 2022

quiet wx will persist through the period as the center of a ia-
wi-nrn mi sfc ridge gradually sinks toward the area, and any
diurnally driven shower activity remains east of the terminals
during the mid afternoon through early evening hours. will need
to monitor for some patchy/shallow ground fog otherwise later
tonight under mainly clear skies and light/variable winds.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...none.
&&

$$

synopsis...andersen/fisher
short term...fisher
long term...fisher
aviation...steinwedel


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Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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000
fxus63 kdtx 171905
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
305 pm edt wed aug 17 2022

..discussion...

large upper level trough remains firmly in place across the eastern
conus keeping local conditions largely unchanged from the previous
day or two. lake breezes again are providing low level convergence
boundaries to generate scattered shower/thundershower activity early
this afternoon. while mid-level support is not as strong today as
yesterday, upper trough still allows weaker lobes of vorticity to
drop south through se mi the rest of this afternoon-evening
supporting continued popup activity- albeit at lesser coverage than
tuesday`s. capping influence is again limited today given the 12z
dtx sounding being very similar to yesterdays 12z sounding in the
mid-levels, and in fact depicts a couple degrees of cooling in the
750-650mb layer. as such have nudged up thunder mentions into chance
territory across the region for the latter half of the day. have
gotten a couple reports of pea sized hail from the stronger updrafts
however lack of shear and weaker mid-level lapse rates will prevent
anything larger than penny sized from forming. rain potential
migrates westward with the lake breezes into the interior of the cwa
over the rest of the afternoon with outflow boundaries from prior
convection providing additional focal points for initiation. any
surviving shower/storm activity begins to taper off by 00-01z with
the loss of diurnal heating (as does accompanying cloud cover)
setting up a mostly clear night allowing lows to fall into the mid to
upper 50s.

another mid-upper level shortwave embedded in the longwave trough
drops into the northern plains thursday. in response, the persistent
upper low centered over the eastern great lakes/upstate ny shifts
further east allowing mid-level height rises tied to shortwave
ridging to build into se mi. expectation is this allows the return
of dry conditions to finish out the work week, which is supported by
most 12z solutions today. a gradual warmup accompanies the ridge as
flow veers back to the south-southwest allowing highs reaching the
mid to upper 80s by the start of the weekend. aforementioned plains
low continues to dig south leading to cyclogensis over the upper
mississippi river valley friday. this surface low tracks into the
ohio valley late saturday into sunday bringing our next chance for
widespread showers and storms.

&&

.marine...

an area of high pressure will continue to hold over eastern canada
through wednesday, bringing similar weather to what was seen on
tuesday. light northeast winds will generally hold in the 10 to 15
knot range with some gusts around 20 knots over the saginaw bay
region as the land over southern lower michigan heats up to around
80 degrees. the high pressure will weaken though the week, allowing
winds to slowly subside and become light and variable. isolated
showers will again be likely wednesday afternoon with the heating of
the day. northeasterly winds will begin to flip back to the south
overnight thursday going into friday.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 112 pm edt wed aug 17 2022

aviation...

isolated to widely scattered rain showers with possible thunderstorms
are expected along lake breezes/outflow boundaries this afternoon
into the evening hours. the initiating boundary will expand across
the metro terminals and into kptk initially, which is represented by
a tempo group in the tafs. low confidence that these showers will
make it into kfnt, with kmbs expected to remain dry as it holds under
a lake shadow. instability remains limited, so shower activity is
favored over thunderstorms, however, will continue to monitor
satellite and radar data for further amendments of thunderstorms.
clouds will dissipate after sunset. fog or some low stratus
development will be possible on the northern fringe of the irish
hills into the tri-cities (kfnt-kmbs), but confidence remains low
regarding fog and/or stratus coverage.

for dtw...sct-bkn 6 kft agl ceiling this afternoon with on and off
shower activity expected. an isolated thunderstorm will remain
possible with this activity.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this afternoon and early
evening.

* low for thunder from 19-01z today.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...kdk
marine.......ss
aviation.....am


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

The three regional National Weather Service offices that cover the Toledo area include Cleveland, Detroit/Pontiac, and Northern Indiana.