Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
650
fxus61 kcle 212357
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
657 pm est sat dec 21 2024

.synopsis...
high pressure builds over the region through sunday before
departing to the east sunday night. low pressure drifting
across the great lakes region will lift a warm front east across
the local area on monday followed by a cold front monday night
into tuesday.

&&

.near term /through sunday night/...
6:30 pm update...
appearance of lake effect snow on radar has eased up as
inversion heights should continue to diminish, resulting in
gradually decreasing lake effect snow showers this evening into
tonight. shouldn`t have any trouble expiring the winter weather
advisory on time this evening.

previous discussion...
lake effect snow showers primarily due to a lake huron
connection are continuing to impact portions of northeast ohio
east of cleveland this afternoon. lake effect snow will continue
through this evening with an additional accumulations generally
between 1 and 3 inches, with locally higher amounts where bands
persist. the winter weather advisory expires at 10 pm this
evening for counties in the cle forecast area. the expectation
is that these showers will gradually diminish tonight as high
pressure and dry air enter from the west.

chilly conditions tonight as overnight lows dip into the low
teens areawide and apparent temperatures drop into the single
digits for some. we`ll be dry for sunday as high pressure
becomes established overhead with highs generally in the 20s.
overnight lows sunday night dip into the teens across northwest
pennsylvania and northeast ohio with warmer overnight lows
west of i-71 settling in the upper teens to lower 20s as warmer
air begins to advect into the region from the west ahead of our
next system.

&&

.short term /monday through tuesday night/...
rain/snow showers are likely across ne oh/nw pa monday afternoon and
especially monday evening/night as a shortwave trough crosses the
area. an inch or two of snow accumulation is possible primarily
across the higher elevations of nw pa and possibly far ne oh, but do
not anticipate any significant impacts. precip chances quickly
dwindle during the day on christmas eve as an upper ridge builds in
from the west and dry weather is favored for the remainder of the
short term period. highs will be in the mid to upper 30s monday and
the upper 30s to lower 40s tuesday. monday night`s lows will be in
the lower 30s and minimum temps will be in the cooler upper 20s
tuesday night.

&&

.long term /wednesday through saturday/...
surface high pressure and upper ridge will maintain influence over
the eastern conus through much of the long term period. meanwhile, a
series of shortwaves will likely lift into the region through mid to
late week, although there`s quite a bit of model spread in the
placement and timing of any disturbances. the high to the east may
keep moisture relatively limited through at least thursday which
should limit precipitation chances. opted for periodic and broad
slight chance pops primarily confined to the western half of the
area where there may be a bit better moisture. pops increase a bit
more as an upper trough advances east towards the area friday, but
still quite a bit to iron out with the placement/timing of
precipitation friday into saturday so precipitation chances have
been limited to slight chance to low end chance (~20 to 30 percent).

temperatures will be above normal during the long term period. by
friday, highs could be as warm as the lower 50s across southern
portions of the cwa.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
lake effect clouds and light snow showers continue downwind of
lake erie this evening in parts of northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. ceilings underneath the clouds have generally been
in the 2500-4000 range and should continue that way through much
of tonight. within the light snow showers, may occasionally see
mvfr visibilities but otherwise are expected to be rather low
impact. high pressure gradually builds in and as it does so,
should see those clouds on the western edge gradually erode
tonight and sunday.

northwesterly winds 6-10 knots to start the taf period will become
light and variable overnight tonight. winds will become
southerly during the day sunday..

outlook...non-vfr will be possible with a rain/snow mix monday
afternoon into tuesday.

&&

.marine...
northwest winds will continue to diminish through this evening and
fall to 10 knots or less by late tonight. small craft advisory will
remain in effect from vermilion, oh to conneaut, oh through 03z/10
pm this evening since waves will likely remain above 4 feet for the
next several hours. light and variable winds will continue through
sunday before southerly winds increase to 10 to 20 knots sunday
night. south to southwest winds may increase to 20 to 25 knots
monday afternoon or evening, but the highest winds and waves will
likely remain in the open waters. can`t rule out a small craft
advisory as higher waves attempt to sneak into nearshore zones from
roughly willowick oh to ripley ny monday night. winds diminish and
shift to the northwest tuesday with before becoming southeasterly
wednesday through thursday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
ohz012>014-022-023-033-089.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
lez145>148.

&&

$$

synopsis...iverson
near term...iverson/saunders
short term...maines
long term...maines
aviation...saunders
marine...maines

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 212251 cca
afdiwx

area forecast discussion national weather service northern indiana
550 pm est sat dec 21 2024

.key messages...

- lake effect flurries taper off this evening.

- a wintry mix including freezing rain is possible (40% chance)
monday morning near the southern michigan state line.

- sharply warmer with chances for rain late in the week.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 221 pm est sat dec 21 2024

a progressive jet stream in the days ahead provides intermittent
precipitation chances followed by a notable warm up by week`s end.

lake effect flurries continue to come and go at kiwx, less
impressive than earlier this morning when flakes were rather large
for a time. forecast soundings continue to depict a decreasing
moisture column through the remainder of the day which will
generally limit lake effect to only flurries. low-level flow backs
sharply to become westerly early tonight which will further diminish
the lake effect machine. very cold tonight outside of lake effect
clouds. hillsdale reached 14 degrees this morning, thus singles-
digits are favored there tonight with the coldest 850-mb
temperatures over our area tonight before moderating. looks for
highs closer to freezing sunday with a mix of sun and clouds.

a challenging forecast is in store for monday as a low streaks
through michigan. the latest guidance has trended southward with the
precipitation shield monday morning which presents the concern for
freezing rain or drizzle along the southern michigan state line.
confidence is low, however, due to preexisting dry air. in contrast,
ample lift through such a shallow moisture layer could set the stage
for freezing drizzle which could bring greater travel impacts
depending on duration. in the north, forecast soundings do depict a
change over to snow as cooler air in the wake of the low filters in
while southern areas are favored for rain. with an absence of high
resolution guidance (soundings) at this time scale, the weather
grids monday morning are somewhat broad.

brief ridging occurs in the wake of the michigan low with improving
moisture transport from the gulf ahead of a developing southern
plains low. rain is forecast to reach the forecast area on
wednesday, though there will be some competition with high pressure
stationed over pennsylvania. high temperatures should reach well
into the 40s this day, thus rain appears to be the primary
precipitation type.

additional rounds of rain are expected by the end of the week amid
active southwest flow spilling into the midwest. high temperatures
are favored to breach 50 degrees for most areas by friday.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 543 pm est sat dec 21 2024

vfr conditions expected to prevail through this taf period. some
lake effect low to mid level clouds with light snow showers or
flurries within a northwesterly flow at the surface for both taf
sites this evening will be possible but remain operationally
insignificant. winds begin to weaken and vary ahead of another
midwestern disturbance that will move into the region late sunday
which will help to curtail the lake effect shower activity tonight.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...brown
aviation...andersen

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 212334
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
634 pm est sat dec 21 2024

.key messages...

- lake effect snow showers will continue to brush the shoreline of
huron county tonight, bringing a chance for minor accumulations and
pockets of blowing snow.

- cold continue into tomorrow with morning lows ranging from around
0 degrees in the saginaw valley to around 10 degrees in detroit.
daytime temperatures again will be in the 20s

- next chance for snow and rain arrives on monday with snow
accumulations of an inch and greater increasingly likely north of i-
69.

&&

.aviation...

residual moisture trapped below a midlevel subsidence inversion and
mature boundary layer thermodynamic structure has kept stratocumulus
in place over the southern taf sites. expecting loss of daytime
heating and continued dry air advection to cause cloud to thin out
and dissipate prior to 06z. surface high pressure will build
directly into lower michigan overnight resulting in decoupling and
vfr conditions. the center of surface high pressure passing into
upstate new york will then cause for a prevailing south wind.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this evening, then low
tonight.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 334 pm est sat dec 21 2024

discussion...

an arctic high pressure has settled over the area today along with a
lot of dry air in the mid and upper levels noted on the 12z dtx raob
which also came in with a -17c temperature at 850mb. these cold
temperatures are resulting in a high delta t over the lakes and
strong instability. this continues to support lake effect snow
showers that are clipping portions of the thumb. convective depths
over the lake will continue to lower into the evening, which should
limit greater snow rates. the other result is a fair degree of
clouds underneath the inversion layer streaming across the state with
the north/northwest flow this afternoon. moisture depth is shallow,
but forecast soundings depict the cloud layer over land within the
dgz. this affords the opportunity for maintenance of some scattered
flurry activity throughout the remainder of the afternoon.

tonight will see the coldest temperatures associated with this cold
airmass. the arrival of a surface high pressure bringing calm winds,
fresh snow pack, and clearing skies will bring favorable conditions
for surface temperatures to plummet from the highs in the low to mid
20s this afternoon into the single digits for most areas tonight.
temperatures across the saginaw valley will be the coldest with
morning lows bottoming out around zero degrees (f). wind direction
overnight will keep potential for any lake effect snow bands
overnight to clip northern and east huron county. this brings the
lower probability to see up to an inch of additional snowfall during
the overnight period.

a pacnw wave rounding the flattening ridge over the rockies will
travel across the northern plains and arrive into the central great
lakes during the day monday bringing the next chance at widespread
precipitation starting monday morning. models remain in fairly
consistent in snow being the predominant precipitation type,
especially for the northern half of the cwa. being on the warm
advection wing of this system, some warmer low level temperatures
begin to edge into lower michigan. this will work to bump
temperatures near the surface into the mid 30s across the southern
cwa leading to the probability for a rain/snow mix or complete
change over to rain at times and cut into any snow accumulation
total. latest guidance has trended higher with qpf amounts. this
brings potential snowfall amounts up more solidly in the 1 to 3
inch range north of i-69. higher end of this range resides across
the northern thumb. forecast into monday will be sensitive to the
trends of the qpf and degree of warm air nudging into lower michigan,
which will affect overall totals and precipitation type. south of
i-69 totals are currently to an inch or less.

high pressure settles back into the region for tuesday bringing dry
conditions. there will not be a lot of cold air advection in the
wake of the system monday, which will keep daytime highs in the mid
30s. a lot of uncertainty remains with the mid-week forecast as a
southern stream wave tries to release north into michigan. several
ensembles remain dry for wednesday, so outgoing forecast will carry
low pops given the uncertainty. if it does precipitate, solution
space currently points towards rain as the main precipitation type.
greater confidence will be for warmer than average temperatures
spreading across the region into the late week with daytime highs
likely climbing into the 40s by friday.

marine...

arctic high pressure continues to gradually become established over
the central great lakes this evening leading to a diminishing trend
in northerly winds. lingering lake effect snow showers over southern
lake huron likewise diminishes as this occurs. high slides across
the region sunday bringing a brief period of light flow and dry
conditions. southerly flow then strengthens sunday night-monday as
compact low pressure ejects out of the plains into the great lakes.
peak gusts during the day monday expected to reach the 25-30kt range
over lake huron; gusts over the southern great lakes likely stay
closer to 20kts. this system tracks over the area latter half of
monday into early tuesday generating widespread snow with winds
slowly veering from nw to ne on the backside of the system tuesday.
high pressure is quick to build back into the region in the low`s
wake likely resulting in winds weakening once northerly flow
develops.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lhz421-
441>443.

lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...aa
marine.......kdk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.