Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
344 pm edt tue may 12 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track with widespread precipitation tonight and
scattered showers through thursday afternoon.

&&

.key messages...
1) unsettled weather expected starting tonight through thursday
afternoon with periodic showers and thunderstorms.

2) temperatures begin warming friday into early next week with above
average temperatures likely.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure enters the great lakes region this evening with the
associated warm front moving north through area tonight.
precipitation will begin out west before midnight and progressing
eastward throughout the night ahead of the cold front. the cold
front will move through the region early wednesday morning and exit
by the afternoon. there may be some thunderstorms initially when the
showers begin out west, though most of the instability will be
minimal overnight so expecting little thunder if any over
night. generally expecting a quarter inch of qpf overnight with
the rain showers. behind the cold front, precipitation across
the western portion of the cwa will end and there will be a
short lull in precipitation out east. additionally moisture will
return to the region late wednesday evening as flow shift to be
more north- northwesterly across the region. this will help
support the development of periodic lake enhanced showers across
eastern ohio and western pennsylvania through thursday
afternoon. though, given the lake is still on the cooler side
compared to the air temperature, there will be minimal lake
induced instability impacting the overall extent of the lake
enhanced showers. warmer upper air temperatures begin to move
into the region thursday and showers should begin to end by the
evening timeframe. overall, an additional tenth or two of
precipitation is possible across the primary and secondary
snowbelts through thursday evening.

key message 2...
behind the exiting trough, upper level ridging will begin to build
into the region early friday and the area will see a warming trend
in the temperatures through early next week. the region will be in a
west to southwesterly flow starting friday afternoon and
temperatures will gradually increase each day through monday. highs
on friday will be 10-15 degrees warmer than on thursday into the
upper 60s to low 70s. through the weekend, highs will climb into the
upper 70s to low 80s with the warmest day being monday as highs will
be in the mid 80s. overnight lows will be slightly above average as
well, dropping down into the mid 50s through the weekend. given it`s
almost a week out, there are some disagreements in some models as to
how warm sunday and monday will get, so some adjustments in the
temperatures may be needed as we get closer.

&&

.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
pleasant aviation conditions are being observed across the area
this afternoon as high pressure lingers over the region. by this
evening however, conditions will begin to diminish as a low
pressure system moves east into the great lakes region, moving a
warm front north late this afternoon, followed by a cold front
overnight. ahead of the cold front, a strong llj will push
northeast, increasing winds from the south-southeast to 12-16
knots across the area with gusts up to 25 knots. the strongest
gusts should remain along and west of i-71. near 02z, showers
will begin to move into nw oh, spreading east overnight.
widespread showers are expected ahead and along the front with
ceilings and visibilities possibly diminishing to mvfr at times.
there is a non-zero potential for thunder, however given the
diurnally unfavorable timing, confidence is very low at this
point.

as the front drifts east overnight, conditions will
gradually dry out with the exception of eastern terminals where
some lake enhanced showers will linger through the end of the
period. mvfr ceilings will become more widespread behind the
departing front with ceilings generally between 2-3kft. in
addition, behind the front, winds will become west-
northwesterly and remain elevated in the 12-15 knots range,
gusting up to 25 knots. these winds are expected to persist
through the end of the period.

outlook...non-vfr possible with lingering rain and low ceilings
through thursday. non-vfr may return in scattered rain showers
and thunderstorms late friday into saturday.

&&

.marine...
calm marine conditions will persist through this afternoon before a
warm front lifts north across lake erie, marking a transition to
south-southwesterly winds and an increase to 20-25 knots across the
western and central basins. as a cold front pushes east tonight,
winds will gradually shift to become west-northwesterly, remaining
elevated in the 15-25 knots range. the shift to onshore flow will
result in waves building to 4-6 feet across the central and eastern
basin lakeshores. as a result, a small craft advisory has been
issued for the southern shore of lake erie.

on thursday into friday, conditions will gradually improve as high
pressure nudges east over the region. this will result in variable
winds of 5-10 knots with waves under 2 feet. late sunday, another
warm front will lift north of the area, allowing winds to once again
become southerly and increase to 10-15 knots into the start of next
week. given offshore flow, no additional marine headlines are
anticipated at this time.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm edt
wednesday for lez142-143.
small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to noon edt
thursday for lez144-145.
small craft advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt wednesday for
lez146>149.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...04
marine...04

Fulton and Henry Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
224 pm edt tue may 12 2026

.key messages...

- showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening.
widespread severe weather is not expected but a few showers
and storms may produce wind gusts to 40 to 50 mph this
evening.

- mainly dry conditions can be expected for wednesday and
thursday

- periodic showers and thunderstorms friday and sunday, but
better chances for severe weather likely hold off until
monday as our first opportunity for 90 degree highs come into
view.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 220 pm edt tue may 12 2026

a vigorous shortwave enters the great lakes north of the area and
develops into an upper low pressure system. it does appear to
provide plenty of lift over lk mi where low level convergence sits
underneath a good area of upper divergence. the main shortwave moves
west to east and the better vorticity swings southeastward into the
area tonight. between 00 and 6z, the better large scale ascent
connects overhead and slides eastward. one of the main issues is
that the surface high pressure system brought plenty of dry air to
the area yesterday and this morning and this affects not only
moisture content, but also instability. sfc dew points in the low
30s west of in-15 vs in the mid 30s in the east and this really
causes an inverted-v style sounding for anything out in front of the
cold front. but with inverted-v soundings, it usually needs weaker
shear to get those downbursts to occur with the evaporation. the
normally moist-biased nam has around 500 j of mucape out in front of
the pre-frontal trough and another 500 j closer to the cold front
back in wisconsin around 00z this evening. it appears that once the
cold front catches up to the pre-frontal trough in the i-69
corridor, better moisture and lingering mucape around 500 j may be
enough to allow for some storms, but at that point, we`ve lost the
better low level lapse rates and with that setup, it`s probably
going to be harder to get a downburst. sfc dew points finally reach
55f in the i-69 corridor around 6z. some small hail may be possible.
as far as a tornado threat goes, our limiting factor is dry air.
lcls are above 1000m for a good portion of the period. perhaps as
those dew points rise above 50f maybe we can get better lcls, but we
lose instability at night and low level turning is marginal to too
low throughout. still think the most probable is sub-severe storms
40 to 50 mph gusts with an isolated severe storm. hail is a low
threat, but not non-existent. the hrrr has the convection through
lima by around 8z.

the warm/moist theta-e plume vacates the area by 12z wednesday and
negative theta-e advection ensues. this brings cooler and drier air
into the area. there could be enough instability around, however,
for scattered to isolated cells of sprinkles or light showers on
wednesday. high temperatures also drop 15 degrees from the low 60s-
low 70s to low 50s-around 60. this low theta-e plume sticks around
through thursday. given the deepening of the low over the
northeastern conus on friday, rain sort of hits a wall and has to
slide southward. therefore, the first part of friday, as a cold
front arrives, probably has the best chance for rain between friday
and saturday. that`s not to say it won`t rain, but that chances are
more down around 15 to 20 percent as opposed to 25 to 30 percent.
rain comes in friday night and then saturday night into sunday. we
kind of end up in this squeeze play between the ridge to our east
and the arriving theta-e plume trying to better moisture in here
ahead of nightfall and it swinging through the area for saturday.
all of this lingering moisture and stalled low pressure system
arrival has stalled the arrival of the warmer air originally slated
for friday.

one thing of note is that as the upper low that stalls over the
northeastern us leaves, a high pressure system sets back up
southeast of the conus. this allows a better connection to the gulf
especially by later sunday and sunday night. therefore, monday has a
better airmass for thunderstorms.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 155 pm edt tue may 12 2026

predominantly vfr to mvfr conditions at the taf sites this
period. a cold front will move nw to se through the area late
this afternoon into the overnight hours, approaching ksbn around
00-6z and kfwa 3-9z. s-sw winds shift west-northwest behind the
front, with gusts up to around 25 knots possible at both sites.
otherwise, llws possible at ksbn this evening. showers are
likely, with potential for thunderstorms (especially at ksbn).
left thunder out of kfwa for now given lower confidence by the
late evening/overnight hours. mvfr cloud deck around 2500ft
builds in behind the front for wednesday morning/early
afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 pm edt wednesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...roller
aviation...mcd

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
148 pm edt tue may 12 2026

.key messages...

- numerous to widespread showers with a rumble of thunder are on
schedule to move in this afternoon and continue through tonight. a
few of the strongest storms will be capable of 40 mph wind gusts and
small hail.

- below normal temperatures return for wednesday with scattered
showers.

- a warming trend is then on schedule to carry temperatures into the
upper 70s to lower 80s this weekend.

&&

.aviation...

vfr ceilings mark the beginning of this taf period as mid-upper
level moisture spills into the terminal corridor. the increase in
mid-high clouds will come with isolated to scattered light rain
showers that will fight a dry surface layer through the afternoon.
will maintain a prob30 for shower activity from ptk northward as
lower levels gradually saturate through the evening. higher
coverage of showers will arrive late this evening as associated low
pressure tracks through with a cold front. enough nocturnal
instability looks available for isolated thunderstorms, but
confidence in occurrence at any one airport remains low. front
passes through tonight with shower/thunderstorms chances coming to an
end around 07z followed by increasing coverage of mvfr ceilings.
winds turn out of the w and nw and become gusty to around 25 knots
tomorrow morning as mvfr ceilings look to persist.

d21/dtw convection...very low probability exists for an isolated
thunderstorm this evening into tonight.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* very low for thunderstorms mainly between 02z and 07z tonight.

* high for cigs aob 5000 feet tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 357 am edt tue may 12 2026

discussion...

temperatures are settling into frosty lower to mid 30s across se mi,
except for the immediate detroit area. legit freezing conditions are
also noted toward the interior thumb leading up to sunrise. from
here, readings climb steadily through the 40s during the morning as
the cold high pressure air mass is displaced eastward by the next
low pressure system moving into the upper midwest. this system is on
schedule to bring the next round of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and tonight.

upstream observational data and model analysis fields indicate
elevated activation of the warm front over the upper midwest as
moisture transport accelerates into the system. it has a hybrid
pacific/gulf moisture axis maturing in the 850-700 mb layer judging
by model theta-e fields, more than adequate for elevated convection
when driven by a 50 kt low level jet. what has developed in model
solutions over the last few runs is a more pronounced effect of dry
air in the low levels across se mi this afternoon. this results in a
pop/qpf gradient from just a low chance near the ohio border up to
near categorical toward the tri cities. it shows up in the regional
deterministic solutions as well as the href and refs mean qpf as the
models hone in on the moisture transport maximum into the northern
great lakes.

thunderstorm potential transitions from elevated this afternoon to
surface based this evening. there is good model agreement in
placement of the surface low near the straits by midnight which
pulls the warm front into central lake huron and draws the warm
sector across southern lower mi. storms are expected to be ongoing
along the trailing cold front crossing lake mi around 00z with the
forecast focus being on coverage and intensity as storms reach se mi
toward midnight. the storm environment offers a strong wind profile
that ranges from 50 knots of 0-6km bulk shear at 03z this evening
down to a still respectable 35 knots by 09z. the limiting factor is
instability that fails to hold up as href mean mucape struggles to
hold 500 j/kg as activity moves through se mi. a few stronger storms
are in play as the pattern reaches the i-75 corridor, however a
weakening or disorganizing trend is likely as weakening updrafts
struggle to hold up against the strong wind field. this body of
evidence supports the general thunder spc outlook until the cold
front sweeps eastward by 12z wednesday.

this low pressure system continues moving slowly eastward during
wednesday despite a respectable occlusion still showing up in model
projections. the occlusion maintains a mid level moisture axis and
500 mb cold pool capable of supporting scattered afternoon
instability showers across se mi. afternoon max temperatures also
drop back below normal, into the 50s most areas, especially if rain
is a factor against the diurnal trend. at least lingering clouds
strongly limit frost potential wednesday night.

the transition toward a more zonal large scale mid/upper air
configuration is on schedule for the late week period. it is
preceded by a sharp mid level ridge and broad surface high pressure
to ensure dry weather thursday. low pressure well north in central
canada then gets the warming trend underway with a pattern of
showers in the great lakes by friday. temperature guidance has
trended significantly warmer for saturday and sunday with upper 70s
and lower 80s being offered each day. zonal large scale flow is not
a stable/long lasting configuration which is shown in extended range
guidance solutions that reamplify the pattern early next week,
except this time with the trough farther west and warmer for the
great lakes compared to recent days.

marine...

high pressure departs and washes out across new england this morning
which will support southeast flow through the day. a low pressure
clipper system will then progress from the northern plains into
lower michigan late tonight into wednesday. the pressure gradient
will strengthen as a result and will increase the magnitude of
southeast flow, producing gusts ranging 20 to 25 knots. this will
quickly elevated wave heights aoa 4ft across the lake huron
shoreline and through the saginaw bay, where small craft advisories
remain in place. advisories have also been expanded to lake st clair
and lake erie for tonight and wednesday.

passage of the low will veer wind direction from southeast to
northwest by wednesday afternoon. a lull in wind speeds and wave
heights will be likely as the low progresses directly over the
state. however, the northwest flow will accelerate cold air
advection, improving mixing depths which brings renewed gust
potential towards 25 knots leading into thursday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...small craft advisory until 10 pm edt wednesday for lhz421-422-
441>443.

lake st clair...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm edt wednesday
for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm edt wednesday
for lez444.

&&

$$

aviation.....aa
discussion...bt
marine.......am/bt


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.