Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
779
fxus61 kcle 120107
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
907 pm edt tue mar 11 2025

.synopsis...
a weak cold front continues to move south across the region
this evening before stalling out across central ohio. the front
will waiver north and south until a low pressure system
approaches from the west and the front moves north on friday.

&&

.near term /through wednesday night/...
905 pm update...
made a few adjustments to the overnight lows, actually bringing
them up a degree here and there, but most places remain near
freezing for the lows, or just below in the upper 20s in far ne
oh and nw pa. still on the breezier side in the wake of the
cold front that came through this afternoon/early evening.

previous discussion...
a cold front has started to move across the region this
afternoon and will continue to push southward through the
evening before stalling out across the cwa. temperatures will
start to decrease steadily behind the front. observations
upstream in michigan already have temperatures down in the mid
to low 50s as of 3 pm after topping out in the upper 50s. there
is no precipitation expected with this front as the atmosphere
is fairly dry, there will be some high clouds moving into the
region this evening that will end up being more widespread by
tomorrow morning due to the northern flow across the lake.
temperatures tonight will bottom out in the upper 20s/low 30s
closer to the lake and the mid 30s further south. tomorrow,
there will be a strong north-to-south temperature gradient
across the center of the cwa with the stalled front.
temperatures near the lake will struggle to reach the upper 40s,
whereas further south, temperatures will be in the upper 50s
and may even touch the 60s. with the flow off the lake, there
will be some convergence generating showers across ne oh and nw
pa wednesday afternoon into the evening. the showers will be
spotty, so opted to continue with low-end pops.

&&

.short term /thursday through friday night/...
the end of the week will bring warmer than average temperatures and
mostly dry weather. upper level ridging will develop across the
midwest and great lakes region on thursday. a weak frontal boundary
will be stalled out over central ohio on thursday. there will be a
light northeasterly flow across northern ohio and northwest
pennsylvania thursday. temperatures will vary across the area with
strong gradient closer to the lakeshore on thursday. areas near the
lakeshore will only reach the upper 40s and lower 50s while areas
further inland will reach the lower to middle 60s. an upper level
trough and strong storm system will begin to develop across the
southern rockies thursday night and lift out into the central plains
region on friday. a warm front will lift across northern ohio
thursday night. a strong low pressure system will track from central
plains into the midwest late on friday. a deep southerly flow will
develop over the ohio valley on friday. it will feel very much like
spring with high temperatures climbing into the lower and middle
70s friday afternoon.

&&

.long term /saturday through tuesday/...
saturday will bring a round of potentially severe weather across the
region. a strong and well developed low pressure system will lift
out from the upper midwest into southern ontario on saturday. there
maybe a round of showers and decaying storms moving through from the
previous daytime convection that developed west of area. a large-
scale upper level trough over the central conus will move eastward
into the ohio valley saturday. temperatures will once again climb
into the lower and middle 70s saturday afternoon. the entire area
has been highlighted in a day 5 outlook for severe weather by spc.
it appears that damaging wind gusts will be the main severe weather
hazard but an isolated tornado potential can`t be rule out on
saturday. the large upper level trough will remain over the great
lakes and ohio valley sunday into monday with cooler and drier
weather. high temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s to end the
weekend and start out early next week.

&&

.aviation /00z wednesday through sunday/...
the wind continues to be the main issue in the wake of a cold
front that came through the region a couple of hours ago in the
late afternoon hours today. gusts 20-25kts will gradually wane
into the overnight hours and northeast to east winds prevail
less than 12kts after 12z wednesday. the cold front will stall
and lift back north with some mid level clouds developing
tonight around fl070, lowering to fl035 for cle to cak and
terminals east of that line after 16z wednesday. some
precipitation is possible, light and primarily brief for eri,
but chances to low for actual taf mention, even as a tempo.


outlook...vfr conditions expected through friday. a strong cold
front crosses saturday night into sunday with gusty winds and
possible non-vfr conditions during rain showers.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over southern ontario and quebec will bring a east to
northeast flow over the lake tonight through thursday. generally
northeast winds of 10 to 20 knots are expected tonight through
thursday. a warm front will lift across the lake thursday night.
southerly to southeasterly winds 10 to 15 knots will return by
friday. a strong low pressure system will track through the upper
midwest and western great lakes region friday night into saturday.
southerly winds will likely increase friday night through saturday
evening 15 to 30 knots. forecast trends may eventually require a
wind-related small craft advisory friday night into saturday.
westerly winds 15 to 20 knots will follow behind a cold front on
sunday and additional small craft advisories maybe possible.

warming temperatures will cause additional melting of remaining ice
on lake erie. periods of elevated winds will likely cause chunks of
ice to break offshore and float around. ice movement will be
hazardous and will greatly dictate wave potential.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...23
near term...23/26
short term...77
long term...77
aviation...26
marine...77

Fulton and Henry Counties

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032
fxus63 kiwx 112325
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
725 pm edt tue mar 11 2025

.key messages...

- sharp temperature gradient sets up through wednesday night
with highs ranging from the upper 40s to middle 60s.

- much warmer air makes a return thursday into saturday, along
with showers and a few thunderstorms friday night into early
saturday. risk for strong to severe storms remains uncertain.

- gusty southwest winds of 40 to 45 mph may occur saturday
afternoon prior to the arrival a cold front, bringing with it
much colder air.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 157 pm edt tue mar 11 2025

flat zonal flow across the ern us will amplify in time as powerhouse
upper disturbance noted in vapor west of nrn baha progresses
inland and carves out a strong cntrl plains cyclone friday.
downstream building upper ridge will yield warmest temps of the
season with warm and windy 70s likely then. rapid occlusion to
leading sfc cyclone as it lifts into the upper midwest will
bring about a period of widespread showers and likely embedded
thunder however any appreciable severe risk appears muted this
far east given poor overnight timing friday night and diluted
low level theta-e ridging. this may improve somewhat far ern
areas by late sat aftn with secondary/rapid sfc wave development
through wrn oh.

brief cooldown follows sun-mon before yet another deep plains based
cyclone takes shape mid next week.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 716 pm edt tue mar 11 2025

a back door type of cold front had moved southeast of fwa and
was just about to move west through sbn. the air mass was very
dry just behind the front with dew points mainly in the teens.
very little chance for fog tonight given the prevailing very dry
atmospheric and ground conditions. winds should veer to the
east or east/southeast behind the front.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 am edt wednesday for lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...t
aviation...skipper

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 120405
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1205 am edt wed mar 12 2025

.key messages...

- dry conditions will prevail wendesday through friday.

- after a cool start wednesday, a steady warming trend will get
underway thursday into saturday.

- windy conditions are expected saturday, with gusts over 40 mph
possible.

- cooler and continued windy conditions are expected sunday.

&&

.aviation...

expansion of anticyclonic flow trajectories at the surface across
the relatively cold great lakes led to a backdoor front through
southeast michigan earlier this evening. strong static stability
through the lowest 10.0 kft agl will lead to vfr conditions.
midlevel altostratus has developed south of detroit in a region of
modest warm air advection. confidence is low on the timing and
coverage of the mid cloud wednesday.

for dtw...east winds are expected tonight through wednesday
afternoon.

.dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings aob 5kft wednesday morning.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 305 pm edt tue mar 11 2025

discussion...

surface high pressure is expanding across the northern great lakes
as the cold front has now exited south of the forecast area. cold
air advection within the post frontal north-northeast flow and
influence of the cold waters of lake huron will support continued
falling temps this evening. as the high pressure moves into southern
quebec overnight, the low level winds will veer toward the east
while the gradient increases. despite the very dry ambient airmass,
this will offer some limit on the depth of the nocturnal stable
layer, thus supporting min temps mainly in the 20s. a passing mid
level short wave and upper jet streak across the northern great
lakes overnight into wed morning will drive a thicker high cloud
canopy across mainly the northern half of the forecast area. low
level easterly flow will persist wednesday with high pressure
anchored over eastern canada. this will limit afternoon highs to the
40s, with 30s along the shores of the great lakes. model soundings
indicate a the development of a cloud layer between 4k and 6k feet
over much of the area wednesday, corresponding to some ascent along
the 288k to 290k isentropic surfaces.

subtle mid level ridging forecast to traverse lower mi on thursday
will drive modest mid level height rises and will maintain a ridge
of high pressure across the eastern great lakes. ample dry air will
support plentiful sunshine on thursday. a slight rebound in the low
level thermal fields will boost high temps into the 50s, while
lingering light easterly winds hold temps several degrees colder
along the lakeshores.

lee side cyclogenesis resulting from a high amplitude mid level
trough crossing the southern rockies on friday has been well
advertised by the model suite. rapid occlusion of the surface low is
forecast as it lifts across the upper ms valley on saturday while a
secondary mid level wave over texas carves out an extensive long
wave trough across the central us. low to mid level southerly flow
will strengthen across the great lakes region on friday in advance
of this system. while this will drive mild air across the region,
there is some uncertainty as to how much the cold waters of the
great lakes will influence temps as sfc winds are forecast to
maintain an easterly component. while there is respectable spread
among ensemble members, the majority of solutions still drive
afternoon highs well into the 60s, with cooler readings along the
lakeshores.

a plume of moisture within the warm conveyor is forecast to pass
across se mi either fri night or early saturday morning, warranting
a chance of showers. the mid level dry slot is forecast to pass
overhead saturday. there is generally good agreement among the model
suite in showing very strong low level southerly winds saturday, 45-
50 knot winds within the lowest 5k feet. the question is the mixing
depth potential, which a fair number of model solutions suggest will
be enough to push daytime highs near 70 with gusts over 40 mph
possible. a secondary mid level wave lifting up from texas combined
with a good upper jet dynamics and an influx of gulf moisture will
produce a region of heavy rain across the tennessee/upper ohio
valley regions late sat/sat night. there is a high degree of
uncertainty at this time as to if the back edge of this synoptic
frontal rain event impacts se mi sat night as it lifts across the
eastern great lakes or if the widespread rain remains east of the
forecast area.

phasing of the initial wave lifting across the upper mississippi
valley with a northern stream wave is forecast to evolve into an
upper low over hudson bay/nrn ontario by the end of the weekend.
this will deliver an influx of colder air within gusty west-southwest
winds on sunday.

marine...

a cold front has pushed southward through the region today and is
now positioned south of lake erie and the mi state line. northerly
winds behind the front have been gusting to around 25 knots building
wave heights along the shoreline of the thumb so a small craft
advisory continues through this evening. high pressure building into
the region today will center over the region tonight causing winds
to weaken. we`ll generally remain under high pressure with a weak
pressure gradient through mid week with the exception of a weak low
tracking across the northern great lakes wednesday. besides a brief
period of gusts to around 15 knots, the system will largely pass
without impact. a strong low (28.80 inches) moving through the
region this weekend will have the potential to produce gale-force
winds/gusts friday night through saturday.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....cb
discussion...sc
marine.......drk


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.