Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
482
fxus61 kcle 072316
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
716 pm edt sat jun 7 2025

...00z taf aviation and near term forecast update...

.synopsis...
a warm front will lift north towards the area tonight into early
sunday as weak low pressure exits the mid-missisippi valley.
the low will move east over the ohio valley and lift the warm
front across the area during the day sunday before exiting to
the east by sunday evening. a cold front will cross the region
monday with a trough lingering over the area through tuesday.

&&

.near term /through sunday night/...
700 pm update...
with this early evening update, there were no adjustments
needed to the ongoing forecast through sunday morning.

previous discussion...
high pressure will maintain influence over the region through
early this evening before a warm front accompanied by a weak
surface low lifts north/northeast from the mid-mississippi and
ohio valleys late tonight through sunday. showers will begin to
lift northeast into the region after 2 am/6z tonight before
overspreading most of the area by early to mid afternoon.
there`s still some uncertainty in the coverage and northward
extent of showers, however the majority of high res guidance
places the highest rain chances across southern zones sunday
morning and east of i-71 sunday afternoon. diurnal
destabilization may result in a few thunderstorms sunday
afternoon into early sunday evening, however the severe weather
risk is slim. precipitable water values will likely rise to
values near the 75th percentile (1-1.25 inches) sunday and
repeated rounds of rain over locations that are already
saturated from previous days of rain may result in some minor
flooding primarily along and south of u.s. route 30. qpf values
will generally range between a quarter of an inch to half an
inch east of the i-75 corridor with locally higher amounts up to
an inch possible where moderate rainfall rates persist.

the will quickly exit to the east by sunday evening and most
locations will see a period of dry weather (or at least relatively
low rain chances) sunday night before an upper trough and
surface cold front begin to move into the area towards the end
of the period. rain chances will begin to increase from the west
after midnight sunday night with precip possibly reaching as far
east as the i-75 corridor by the end of the near term period.

low temperatures will by in the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight
with highs rising into the low to mid 70s on sunday. anticipate
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s sunday night.

&&

.short term /monday through tuesday night/...
an upper level low dives south out of canada on monday into the
upper midwest. a ribbon of deep moisture ahead of the advancing
upper low will be the focus for showers and scattered thunderstorms
moving east across the area on monday. there are differences among
the models with respect to the timing and how much instability may
be able to develop across primarily northeast ohio during the
afternoon before storms arrive. the nam indicates ml cape values may
exceed 1000 j/kg while the gfs has limited instability. bulk shear
values of 40-50 knots will be sufficient to support organized
convection if it can materialize and the storm prediction center is
highlighting a marginal risk of severe weather along with a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall with storm motion parallel to the flow
aloft.

the actual cold front wraps in from the west on monday night but
models so showers generally weakening as they approach the area
monday night. a few showers could cross lake erie but will only have
a low pop for this potential. the upper trough will cross the area
on tuesday with a fairly substantial mid-level dry-slot overhead on
tuesday. an inversion is likely above 10k feet and not expecting
more than an isolated shower or two , mainly east of i-71 on
tuesday. temperatures will tend to be slightly below normal in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.long term /wednesday through saturday/...
upper trough exits to the east on wednesday with high pressure
building north into the ohio valley. dry conditions are expected on
wednesday and likely through thursday as broad ridging builds in aloft.
temperatures climb back into the 80s during the mid-week
period. by the end of next week we will be watching energy and
moisture moving out of the southern plains with a split flow
pattern aloft. chances of showers and thunderstorms return to
the forecast for friday and saturday but could see this
potentially being delayed until the weekend based on the
evolution of the plains upper trough.

&&

.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
the main aviation weather message and expectations for this 00z
evening taf update will be vfr conditions for most of the
overnight. ceilings will slowly lower late tonight into early
sunday morning. after 12z sunday morning, ceilings will drop to
widespread mvfr to lower end of mvfr and generally continue
through the end of this taf period sunday evening. dry weather
is expected for most of the overnight but scattered light rain
showers will move in from west to east sunday morning lingering
into the afternoon with 3sm to 5sm visibility reductions and
light fog or mist as well. some taf sites will see improvement
in the visibility later sunday afternoon over northwest and
northeast ohio. winds will continue to be light 10 knots or less
from the northeast tonight becoming easterly by sunday morning.


outlook...non-vfr is likely at times sunday night as weak low
pressure brings occasional showers and lower ceilings to the
area. additional non-vfr is possible in scattered showers/storms
on monday and tuesday.

&&

.marine...
high pressure over the central great lakes will depart to new
england on sunday. weak low pressure will move through the ohio
valley on sunday with northeasterly winds increasing to 10-15 knots
tonight then becoming more easterly on sunday. this will lead to
some choppiness and waves of 1 to 3 feet for portions of the
nearshore waters.

by monday winds will develop out of the southwest ahead of an upper
level low moving southeast out of canada. southwest winds of 10-15
knots on will veer to westerly with the passage of a cold front
monday night and increase to 15-20 knots on tuesday with 2 to 4 feet
waves. high pressure will build into the ohio valley on wednesday
with winds decreasing below 10 knots or less.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

synopsis...15
near term...77/15
short term...10
long term...10
aviation...77
marine...10

Fulton and Henry Counties

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445
fxus63 kiwx 072308
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
708 pm edt sat jun 7 2025

.key messages...

- showers and a few thunderstorms will develop this evening and last
into sunday morning. locally heavy rainfall possible.

- scattered showers and storms possible sunday night (40-50%), and
again late monday afternoon into monday evening (20-30%).

- seasonable temperatures through tuesday (highs mid-upper 70s),
trending warmer wednesday through friday (highs low-mid 80s).

&&

.update...
issued at 707 pm edt sat jun 7 2025

while confidence remains high on eventual expanding area of
showers and a few storms, onset of light precip in sw counties
is a bit slower with surface obs indicating precip still back
across central il. cams still seem to suggest
arrival/development of light precip in the 00-03z time frame in
the w/sw and then expand east and north, possibly further north
than highest pops depict. will watch trends for possible ramp up
of pops for light precip further north. main mcv may just clip
our southern areas with the greatest focus for heavy rain
residing near this feature.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 220 pm edt sat jun 7 2025

a compact, convectively-augmented shortwave, currently over srn
ia/nrn mo, will track east through the area tonight into sunday
morning bringing rain and chances for thunder, with some semblance
of a diabatically modified low level circulation accompanying this
feature through central in/oh. slow cell motion, weak mucape and
respectable moisture (~8 g/kg in the 850-700 mb layer) hint at
efficient rain rates and the potential for localized nuisance
flooding in a small area near the low center. latest guidance favors
the southern half of the iwx forecast area for higher pops/qpf,
though confidence on where heavier totals may materialize remains
low given the compact nature and lingering model details in handling
of low level mass fields.

low clouds and any lingering showers should exit nw oh by sunday
afternoon with partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions anticipated
for the afternoon. cold frontal passage then brings renewed
shower/storm chances in for sunday night on the leading edge of an
upper level low diving southeast toward the western great lakes.
continued to cap pops in the chance range during this time as the
front likely outpaces better forcing and instability. dry slot
produces a pleasant/mainly dry monday, though additional low chances
for widely scattered convection returns late monday afternoon-
evening as a vort max rotates through the southern periphery of the
large western/northern great lakes upper low. the rest of the week
then features a trend toward warmer temperatures.

&&

.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 707 pm edt sat jun 7 2025

deteriorating flight conditions still appear most likely to
hold off till near/just before 6z at both locations with
greatest impacts likely at kfwa closest to the deeper moisture
and lift. outside of some minor wind adjustments early overall
tafs left untouched. did bring in improving conditions after 15z
at both locations with ksbn the first to likely see a return to
vfr prior to 18z sun.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...air quality alert until midnight edt /11 pm cdt/ tonight for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-
203-204-216.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

update...fisher
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...frazier

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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714
fxus63 kdtx 072309
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
709 pm edt sat jun 7 2025

.key messages...

- periodic low end chances for showers late tonight through tuesday.

- daytime highs in the 70s through tuesday, then a slight warming
trend mid week.

&&

.aviation...

weather conditions across the airspace will be benign overnight.
light easterly flow will continue while mid/high level clouds build
back in, as a batch of showers churns across central illinois and
indiana. the northern periphery of this activity will try to scrape
through southern portions of the airspace sunday morning. however,
the low-level easterly flow will continue to have a drying
influence; thus, limiting shower coverage and intensity.

low-level moisture will begin pooling along an approaching cold
front at the end of the forecast period. anticipating mfvr ceilings
may occur around and after sunday`s sunset. meanwhile, showers with
a few thunderstorms will accompany this front, as it moves through
the region sunday night.

for dtw/d21 convection...a cold front will approach from the west
very late in the forecast window. a band of showers with an embedded
thunderstorm or two is possible late sunday evening.

threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings below 5000-ft sunday morning and medium sunday
evening.

* low for a thunderstorm after 03z monday (late sunday evening)

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 313 pm edt sat jun 7 2025

discussion...

east-northeast low level winds will prevail through the evening,
circulating around an elongated ridge of high pressure extending
from nrn quebec into eastern lower mi. the flow has largely driven
the surface smoke out of the area for the time being. satellite data
shows more wildfire smoke across nrn and cntl lake huron, with the
hrrr bringing this near sfc smoke layer into the thumb and tri
cities region this evening.

the upper low now churning over saskatchewan is forecast to drop
into nrn minnesota sunday/sunday night. the amplification in the
long wave trough across the northern plains and relatively strong
flow will drive the mid level short wave over the mid mississippi
valley across the nrn ohio valley tonight before weakening as it
crosses se mi/ern great lakes sunday. this wave will advect high
level moisture across se mi this evening, with mid level moisture
increasing overnight into sun morning. the overall weak large scale
ascent and lack of instability will simply warrant a chance of light
showers, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area. the
expected cloud cover will limit forecast highs on sunday to the
lower 70s (a few degrees warmer in the tri cities where more sun is
possible).

the lead edge of the mid level height falls associated with the
aforementioned upper low will traverse lower mi sunday night into
early morning. a stream of mid level positive vorticity within a
narrow theta e plume will accompany the lead edge of the height
falls. some steepening of the mid level lapse rates will support a
chance for showers, lingering into mon morning across the eastern
half of the forecast area. upper level divergence/diffluence and
better mid level vorticity advection is forecast across nrn lower mi
and lake huron, supporting the higher rain chances north. an axis of
mid level dry air in the wave of this initial theta e plume will
likely keep conditions dry through much of the day monday. the
opportunity for decent daytime insolation will boost mixing depths
and support high temps well into the 70s. the upper low is forecast
to lift into the northern great lakes mon night, with a trailing mid
level trough axis passing across se mi. weak elevated instability
within this axis of larger scale ascent will support a chance of
showers and a few thunderstorms. as the upper low is forecast to
exit northeast of the great lakes on tuesday, the associated cold
pool aloft will support additional chances for convection. the
better chances will be north of the i-69 corridor where mid level
lapse rates and mu cape values will be a little higher.

a transition toward mid level zonal flow across the eastern us is
forecast late in the work week. building heights and west-southwest
flow is forecast to driver warmer and more humid air into the region
wed into thursday.

marine...

high pressure drifts across lake huron supporting light winds and
low waves through the weekend. northeast winds this afternoon will
begin to veer more easterly tomorrow in response to the exiting high
pressure. expecting most marine areas to remain dry through tomorrow
with the exception of lake erie to lake st. clair where scattered
showers chances exist tomorrow north of a low pressure system moving
across the ohio valley. widespread rain chances then arrive sunday
night. an active pattern continues through early next week as an
upper low encompassing the great lakes and brings daily shower and
thunderstorm chances. models indicating waves and winds hold mostly
below any headline criteria for the bulk of this stretch, but will
monitor wind trends both monday and tuesday as southwest winds perk
up and approach small craft advisory level winds in some spots.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

aviation.....mann
discussion...sc
marine.......aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.