Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

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fxus61 kcle 100754
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
346 am edt sun may 10 2026

.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.key messages...
1) dry weather with below normal temperatures is expected
through tuesday. there is high confidence in widespread frost
on monday night.

2) a system will enter for tuesday night through thursday,
bringing the next chance of rain for the region. some storms
and moderate rainfall could be possible on tuesday night into
wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a reinforcing cold front will make a dry passage during the
first half of the day before high pressure builds into the
region. this high pressure system will stay in place through
tuesday and promote dry weather, while keeping temperatures cool
for mid-may. clouds will remain across the region today and
tonight, and this will likely keep low temperatures more in the
upper 30 to lower 40s, limiting the frost threat for tonight.
however, clearing conditions will enter for monday, which should
allow for a clear, calm, and decoupling atmosphere and low
temperatures in the 30s are anticipated. there is high
confidence in a widespread frost on monday night and some
eastern areas may even have a freeze, if lower 30s can be
achieved. high temperatures on monday will generally be in the
50s. highs on tuesday will be in the upper 50s to 60s with high
pressure moving out and some return flow entering the region
ahead of the next low pressure system.

key message 2...
unsettled weather will return starting tuesday night, as a low
pressure system moves through the great lakes region, bringing
rain chances through thursday. some instability may build on the
warm side of the system on tuesday night and this could support
some initial thunderstorms through wednesday. however, the late
diurnal timing and waning instability should preclude any
organized severe weather threat. there could also be some
moderate rain on tuesday night into wednesday morning with the
thunderstorms and will need to watch for trends with that part
of the forecast for any future flood concern. rain will continue
through thursday as the system departs to the east and rainfall
should be lighter on the back end of the system. temperatures
for the middle of the week should be fairly seasonable in the
60s, perhaps a touch below normal, compared to the upper 60s for
mid-may.

&&

.aviation /06z sunday through thursday/...
at the surface, a cold front, augmented by precip-cooled air
from showers and thunderstorms, extended sw`ward from just east
and south of kdkk, ny to near kpov, oh to just north and west of
kmfd, oh and kmnn, oh at 05:45z/sun. this front continues
moving se`ward and should exit the rest of our region by
09z/sun. behind the front, a high pressure ridge builds slowly
from the canadian prairies and vicinity through 06z/mon. ahead
of the front, our regional surface winds trend s`erly to sw`erly
around 5 to 10 knots. behind the front, surface winds trend
w`erly to ne`erly around 5 to 10 knots through 06z/mon.

isolated showers and thunderstorms with brief mvfr to lifr are
expected along and ahead of the surface cold front, but confidence
in this activity impacting any taf site remains low. behind the
surface cold front, isolated rain showers associated with the upper-
reaches of the front should exit our region generally to the east by
~13z/sun. these showers may be accompanied by brief mvfr. otherwise
dry weather and vfr are expected through 06z/mon.

outlook...periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-vfr are
expected tuesday afternoon through wednesday night. non-vfr may
linger across the eastern-half of the area due to rain showers
and low ceilings this thursday.

&&

.marine...
a ridge affects lake erie as the embedded high pressure center moves
from the canadian prairies toward atlantic waters near the mid-
atlantic states through tuesday. primarily nw`erly to n`erly winds
around 5 to 15 knots through monday should become variable in
direction monday night through tuesday. waves should trend 3 feet or
less.

the ridge should exit e`ward tuesday night through wednesday night
as a low wobbles ese`ward from the northwestern great lakes toward
lake ontario and weakens gradually. accordingly, a warm front should
sweep n`ward across lake erie tuesday night and cause se`erly winds
to veer to s`erly to sw`erly as winds freshen to around 15 to 25
knots. a cold front should then sweep e`ward across lake erie late
wednesday morning through wednesday night and cause winds to veer to
w`erly to nw`erly as wind speeds ease to around 10 to 20 knots.
waves should build to as large as 3 to 6 feet during the tuesday
night through wednesday night time frame. forecast trends may prompt
the eventual issuance of a small craft advisory.

behind the cold front, another high pressure ridge should build
from the western great lakes through thursday. on thursday,
w`erly to n`erly winds should ease further to around 5 to 15
knots. in response, waves should subside to 3 feet or less.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...sefcovic
aviation...jaszka
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 100548
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
148 am edt sun may 10 2026

.key messages...

- seasonably cool and dry sunday and monday with highs around 60
to 65.

- frost is possible monday and tuesday morning, mainly north of
the toll road.

- next chance of precipitation arrives late tuesday into
tuesday night.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 1225 pm edt sat may 9 2026

a cold front already arriving in our northwest by 18z means better
chances for storms along and east of i-69. mid level vorticity moves
more eastward as opposed to southeastward, but some 700 mb vorticity
exists in the 21z window caught up behind the front and that paired
with the moisture convergence along the thermal gradient should be
enough to erupt showers and storms. the main limiting factor for
these storms appears to be moisture, which with sfc dew points and
850 mb dew points in the mid to upper single digits is just below
threshold for better flooding potential. given 500 to 1000 j/kg of
cape and strong low level lapse rates alluding to somewhat of an
inverted-v profile, wind damage and perhaps a hail threat appear to
be the most likely storm hazards. effective shear is right around 30
kts, but low level turning appears to be weaker and, along with a
drier profile, the tornado threat should also be limited. either
because it vacates the area or the instability wanes, an initial
guess at severe weather coming to an end is around 00z this evening.
however, there is a post-frontal thermal gradient that moves west to
east in conjunction with some more 700 mb vorticity and this may
keep showers and perhaps some thunderstorms going in a training
environment south of us-24. it is possible that we see some ponding
or flooding there as long as storms continue to fire along that
stalled front.

surface high pressure begins to poke into the area on sunday behind
the cold front leading to a dry day. that dry weather continues into
tuesday morning. as the relatively cooler air swings through the
area during this period, we`ll have to watch for some front
potential. for monday morning, the better 850 mb temperatures, least
cloudy threat, and weakest low level pressure gradient exists
between monday and tuesday mornings. tuesday, the theta-e plume is
on our doorstep around 12z and this may be enough to protect the
area. however, we`ll have to see if temps drop quickly just after
sunset and if we can form frost earlier in the overnight. both of
these mornings look like along and north of the toll road could see
frost.

the theta-e plume is into the area during the daytime on tuesday in
conjunction with the low pressure system arriving. as such, there is
a good area of large scale ascent. it is interesting to see the
large scale ascent weakens by the time we get to the afternoon. the
instability axis waits until after 00z to get into the area, though,
and that may affect the overall intensity of storms. overnight, the
low continues to deepen and develops into an upper low pressure
system over the great lakes region and cold air spills in for
wednesday. there is some question about moisture content for
wednesday, but there could be some isolated to scattered showers.
given what appears to be a lake shadow removing low level lapse
rates through the day, am skeptical of thunderstorm potential,
especially given weaker cape values. a 40 kt llj will probably make
it easy to get breezy winds between 25 and 35 mph during the
daytime, especially ahead of the rain.

high pressure and mid level ridging follow for thursday and at least
the first half of friday. the theta-e plume probably waits until
saturday (the gfs is probably too fast), but am not confident enough
to remove pops entirely from friday yet.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 145 am edt sun may 10 2026

a low level baroclinic zone will continue to shift south out of
northern indiana through the remainder of the overnight hours.
another upstream wave across southern il will likely interact
with the low level front for additional rain shower chances, but
to the south of the terminals. another weak short wave is
expected to dive southeast to the southern great lakes by this
evening, but this should only bring some increased vfr clouds in
the 5-7k ft layer. vfr conditions should persist through this
forecast period. northwest winds in the 10 to 15 knot range are
expected this afternoon during peak mixing, trending to light
and variable for tonight as low level anticyclone settles across
the region.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...skipper
aviation...marsili

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

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fxus63 kdtx 100748
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
348 am edt sun may 10 2026

.key messages...

- a return to below normal temperatures starts today and lasts
through early to mid week.

- there is a chance for patchy frost in sheltered areas late tonight
into monday morning.

- frost is much more likely monday night.

- the next chance of rain arrives late tuesday into tuesday night.

&&

.discussion...

yesterday`s cold front has reset temperatures back below normal for
today and sets the stage for cooler conditions lasting through the
early week period. afternoon highs average 10 to 15 degrees below
normal each day followed by another round of near advisory frost
potential at night until tuesday.

nw wind at 10 to 20 mph maintains steady low level cold advection
today requiring every bit of available may 10 sunshine for readings
to climb back into the 50s. the updated forecast leans high
temperatures toward the lower end of the guidance range before
leveling out as high based cumulus expands coverage. these daytime
heating dependent clouds decrease after sunset as surface high
pressure approaches lower mi from the midwest. consensus of
deterministic models and href mean maintain gradient wind veering
toward the north and holding around 5 knots. this gradient wind is
not ideal for widespread frost, although min temperatures in the mid
to upper 30s are reachable given the clear sky and reinforcement of
colder air.

the low level thermal trough is not fully established across the
great lake until mid day monday judging by model 850 mb temperature
forecasts that drop into the 0 to -5 c range. this occurs as surface
high pressure becomes centered overhead under confluent nw flow
aloft to solidify both cool temperatures and dry weather. monday
night is then set up to be the coldest in this stretch with the
greatest potential for frost. wind is light and variable to calm for
most of the night under clear sky which brings late night min
temperatures down to near freezing in the thumb to mid 30s across
the rest of se mi outside of metro detroit.

high pressure already shifts eastward from lower mi by tuesday
morning as the next low pressure system moves into the midwest from
central canada. this system quickly brings the next pattern of
showers into the great lakes with moisture supplied by a gulf
modified continental return flow across the plains. near categorical
shower coverage keeps temperatures in check despite increasing sw
wind, and then the associated cold front quickly moves through the
region tuesday night. the frontal passage leaves temperatures to
wallow below normal again by wednesday as highs are projected only
in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

the latest extended model runs show thursday and friday becoming a
transition period in the larger scale mid to upper level pattern.
there is good agreement among the ensemble systems that indicate the
mean flow shifting from a high amplitude long wave trough over the
great lakes and ne states to more of a zonal configuration from
coast to coast. this adds confidence to a meaningful warming trend
during the late week and next weekend while lowering the
predictability on precipitation systems tied to fast moving short
waves within the larger scale flow.

&&

.marine...

eastern edge of high pressure over the central conus holds across
the region today into monday maintaining light to modest nw winds
(aob 20kts). isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible
this afternoon and evening across lake huron, but otherwise drier
conditions hold through monday. next low is set to sweep across the
great lakes late tuesday bringing widespread showers and a few
chances for thunderstorms mainly south of port austin. in advance of
the system, southerly winds strengthen though with ongoing warm
advection, thermal stability over the waters is expected to cap peak
gusts around 30kts. moderate nnw winds follow wednesday as cooler
air filters back in behind the low however a diminishing gradient
should generally keep winds under 30kts. high pressure briefly
follows to close out the work week.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1155 pm edt sat may 9 2026

aviation...

a drier and colder environment will mark conditions overnight within
a prevailing northwest wind. vfr conditions expected through this
time, with simply some thin high based cloud possibly funneling
through. period of mainly clear skies lasting into the morning hours
sunday, before steepening lapse rates with daytime heating yields a
high coverage of higher based vfr diurnal cu for the afternoon
hours. winds prevailing from the west-northwest, turning modestly
gusty again during the afternoon.

d21/dtw convection...no thunderstorms expected through sunday night.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...

mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.

&&

$$

discussion...bt
marine.......kdk
aviation.....mr


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.