Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
677
fxus61 kcle 100610
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
210 am edt fri jul 10 2026

.what has changed...
forecast remains on track. overnight convection should taper off
over the next few hours. locally heavy rainfall possible this
afternoon and evening in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.key messages...
1) showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon with heavy rain
possible in thunderstorms.

2) temperatures begin to trend warmer starting early next week.

&&

.discussion...
key message 1...
a stationary boundary will drift south into the ohio valley through
this evening bringing increased precipitation chances to the region
with the support of an upper level vort max. showers and
thunderstorms should fire along the boundary this afternoon as the
atmosphere begins to destabilize. severe weather parameters are
generally on the lower end, so not anticipating any widespread
impacts. though a strong thunderstorm wouldn`t be out of the realm
of possibilities with mlcape near 1000-1500 j/kg and low level lapse
rates near 7-8 c/km supporting strong wind gusts from those storms.
additionally, heavy rain will be a concern with slow storm motion
(10-15 mph) and high pw values (~1.7 in) across the region. the
southeastern counties would be the most probable to see any flooding
concerns though will be dependent on the location of the boundary
and where storms initiate. wpc has include that area in a slight
risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall for today and will
need to be monitored as storms begin to fire off this afternoon.
precipitation chances will decrease into the evening as the boundary
drifts to the south and upper level forcing moves off to the east.

on saturday, another vort max will moves to the east of the region
that afternoon into the evening. this will bring a low end chance
for precipitation to mainly the southern and eastern counties up
into pennsylvania saturday afternoon. dry weather is expected
starting sunday as ridging builds into the region.

key message 2...
upper level ridging will begin to build into the region on sunday.
generally, flow will be weak as the ridge sets up overhead through
monday. highs will be in the mid 80s on sunday, increasing to the
upper 80s on monday. overnight lows will be in the mid 60s. on
tuesday, the surface high will drift to the east and westerly
flow will take hold across the region. this will increase
temperatures for the middle of the week onwards with confidence
increasing in above average temperatures. an upper level trough
across eastern canada and northeastern conus may keep
temperatures a touch cooler for those in far eastern ohio and
northwestern pennsylvania. though, those finer details will be
worked out over the coming days.

&&

.aviation /06z friday through tuesday/...
a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms will
traverse the western half of the area early this morning. it`s
uncertain what this convection will do east of the i-71 corridor
later this morning but the expectation is for it dissipate to
light showers. there is a very low chance that it continues
east towards kcle/kcak/kyng with embedded isolated lightning.
visibility down to 2 sm is possible with thunderstorms.

this afternoon, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected at all taf sites, except keri. at kcle, they may
develop a bit earlier around mid to late morning. heavy rain is
likely within thunderstorms with visibility down to 2 sm or
lower. gusty winds to around 30 knots could be possible but
scattered nature and low confidence in occurrence prevents a
mention in the taf.

outlook...non-vfr possible with scattered thunderstorms through
saturday afternoon.

&&

.marine...
light and variable winds are expected through today. northeast
winds develop tonight following the passage of a cold front and
high pressure building in from the north. those northeast winds
gradually increase from 5-10 knots tonight to around 15 knots
saturday afternoon. waves increase to around 2-3 feet saturday
afternoon, with greatest wave heights expected in the central
basin. northeast winds back off saturday night before returning
sunday afternoon with winds around 15 knots and waves around 2-3
feet.

light and variable winds are expected monday as high pressure
moves overhead. winds become southwest tuesday and wednesday as
high pressure departs to the southeast. waves generally expected
to be less than 1 foot.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...23
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders

Fulton and Henry Counties

link
061
fxus63 kiwx 100624
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
224 am edt fri jul 10 2026

.key messages...

- widely scattered showers and storms taper off early this
morning, then redevelop this afternoon into early this
evening. locally heavy rainfall possible.

- less humid and mainly dry this weekend.

- dry and trending warmer next week with highs into the low to
mid 90s by tuesday and wednesday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 224 am edt fri jul 10 2026

widely scattered convection associated with a mid level shortwave
and corridor of higher theta-e will exit off to the east by daybreak
leaving primarily dry/humid conditions for the bulk of the morning
and early afternoon. diurnally driven, isolated to scattered,
convection then once again redevelops this afternoon into early this
evening in the vicinity of a subtle low level boundary and/or
convective outflows drifting slowly south into a moderately unstable
air mass (~2000 j/kg of cape). the overall weak forcing/shear/flow
will not be conducive to storm organization, leaving localized
flooding and pulse-type wind gusts to 40 mph as the primary threats.

the southward sagging front will force the primary instability axis
south of the area later friday night into saturday with the bulk of
the area dry and less humid. there remains mixed signals in
available model guidance on if the northern fringes of a mcs
tracking east through the mid ms/oh river valleys clips our southern
zones during this time. opted to retain a slight chance pop south of
us 30 in in and south of us 24 in oh.

an anomalously strong and expansive mid-upper level ridge remains on
track to build east over the north-central us and midwest sunday
through the middle of next week. this will put a lid on any rain
chances with highs expected to reach the low-mid 90s by tuesday-
wednesday. afternoon heat indices may make a run at 100 by this
time, though humidity levels look less impressive when compared to
our previous heat wave. low chances (20-30%) for convection then by
the end of next week as ensembles tend to flatten the ridge
somewhat.

&&

.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1236 am edt fri jul 10 2026

widely scattered storms will remain possible through 09-10z with
brief ifr/mvfr vis restrictions possible (currently seeing this
at ksbn). weak mid level shortwave and deeper moisture will exit
off to the east by daybreak with dry conditions anticipated
through the early afternoon. retained an mvfr group at ksbn
10-16z as some stratus/br may attempt to fill in given light
winds, late clearing and moist low levels. moisture/instability
axis will linger over northern in this afternoon with diurnally
driven, scattered, convection redeveloping.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
902
fxus63 kdtx 100720
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
320 am edt fri jul 10 2026

.key messages...

- chance (30-50%) for some showers and thunderstorms along and south
of i-94, with the higher end of this range favored near the mi/oh
border.

- the strongest storms that develop could produce localized wind
gusts of 40 to 60 mph and small hail.

- dry weather and near-normal temperatures this weekend.

- high confidence for above normal temperatures next week with
temperature highs in the 90s.

&&

.discussion...

prior day precipitation with more favorable clearing across the
northern half of the cwa has produced a more muddled environment
with conditions ranging between periodic stratus and patchy fog.
expansion of low-level stratus will cease and dissipate through the
morning with daytime heating. for the afternoon, the stalled frontal
boundary extending from near hillsdale west-northwest through battle
creek to holland will be the primary focus for renewed daytime
convection, supported by low-level moisture convergence along the
boundary. convective development will be most favorable along and
south of i-94, with probabilities increasing towards the
michigan/ohio border. where convection develops, 1200-1500 j/kg of
sbcape combined with sufficient bulk shear may support a few
organized storms. the strongest cells could produce localized
downburst winds of 40-60 mph and small hail. the limited and
uncertain convective coverage should keep these hazards isolated.
shower and thunderstorm chances end by the evening as the convergent
boundary moves south of the state.

high pressure builds in through the weekend, supporting dry weather
and extended periods of sunshine. daytime highs and lows hang out
around seasonal normal values in the mid 80s to low 60s,
respectively. a strong dome of high pressure across the rockies will
lose some amplification early next week as a series of mid-level waves
carve through the southern canadian provinces. this will fold the
elevated temperatures across the plains into the great lakes next
week, with 850mb temperatures of 18-22c arriving across se mi by
monday. strong mid-level subsidence will help support dry and mostly
sunny conditions through at least the early week period which,
coupled with the thermal advection, will likely push daytime highs
back into the 90s. at present time, tuesday and wednesday look to
have the most favorable chance to see highs peaking towards the mid
90s, coinciding with the stronger waa. above normal temperatures
have potential to continue into the end of the forecast period (thu-
fri), however the 500mb height contours become increasingly oriented
northwest to southeast, establishing a more direct midlevel flow
connection from the high plains into the great lakes. this may allow
upstream convection, or at least its associated cloud debris, to
progress into the region.

&&

.marine...

a weak cold front stalls near the lake st. clair and western lake
erie vicinity this morning. scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible in this area, mainly from late this morning into the
early afternoon. isolated storms may capable of producing wind gusts
in excess of 34 kt. meanwhile, high pressure builds across the
northern great lakes today which maintains north to northeast wind
of 10 to 15 kt for much of the area. gusts may briefly reach near 20
kt this afternoon across southern lake huron and saginaw bay due to
favorable fetch orientation. the high pressure eases farther south
on saturday and sunday, maintaining benign marine conditions with
light wind that becomes variable as the high passes overhead.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 1211 am edt fri jul 10 2026

aviation...

frontal boundary has settled across the i-69/m-59 corridor with only
a couple isolated showers hanging around southeast michigan.
northerly winds are present north of the front with variable winds
near and south of the front. mvfr to possible ifr ceilings should
develop early this morning within the northerly flow and around the
frontal boundary. presence of the boundary and lingering low level
moisture with dew points into the upper 60s/low 70s brings potential
for fog throughout the night with some isolated vsby drops already
observed. northerly winds behind the front will persist through the
morning along with the lower ceilings. as front drops further south
tomorrow afternoon a few scattered showers, maybe isolated thunder,
will be possible for 2-3 hours in the afternoon across the southern
metro terminals.

d21/dtw convection...thunder chances are low for tomorrow. most
likely window around 17-19z if an isolated thunderstorm can develop.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet early this morning.
high by mid morning into the afternoon.

* low for thunder tomorrow afternoon.


&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...none.
lake huron...none.
lake st clair...none.
michigan waters of lake erie...none.
&&

$$

discussion...am
marine.......tf
aviation.....aa


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.