Toledo Weather

Lucas and Wood Counties

link
708
fxus61 kcle 121447
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
947 am est thu dec 12 2024

.synopsis...
a trough of low pressure will linger across the great lakes
today. a ridge of high pressure will build over the ohio valley
tonight into friday. the high will shift into the eastern great
lakes saturday to allow another low pressure system to move
towards the upper midwest. this low will pull a cold front
through the region sunday.

&&

.near term /through friday/...
9:30 am update...

lowered temperatures across the area as models are consistent
with high temperatures only climbing into the mid to upper
teens. closest to the lake shore highs will reach into the 20s.
the remainder of the forecast is unchanged in this update.

6:30 am update...

the forecast remains on track this morning with no changes
needed. the surface trough is starting to move over northern
lake erie, so expect bands to start to push southward and
intensify.

original discussion...

a brief blast of true arctic air will bring heavy lake-effect
snows to northern portions of the primary snowbelt today along
with gusty winds. the snowfall forecast has trended a little
higher, and timing and placement of bands is the main challenge
today.

infrared satellite and water vapor loops this morning show a
textbook set-up for a big lake-effect snow event in the eastern
great lakes affecting ne ohio, nw pa, and western and central
ny. a large, negatively tilted mid/upper longwave trough is
digging through the great lakes with an associated closed mid-
level vortex north of lake superior. this deep cyclonic flow
pattern is circulating arctic air across the relatively warm
lakes, and this along with residual synoptic moisture is
generating moderate to strong lake induced instablilty to
support a strong lake response.

looking at the finer details, a well-aligned w to wsw flow
(260-270 degrees) is currently established across lake erie.
this is leading to a long fetch across the lake and an upstream
connection to lake michigan. lake-effect snow bands are
organizing and hugging the lakeshore of lake, ashtabula, and
erie counties, and recent radar suggests this activity is
slowly drifting north in response to subtle backing of the
boundary layer flow ahead of a shortwave dropping through
michigan. the associated surface trough can be seen over se
lower michigan and southern ontario where an enhanced band of
snow is dropping east/southeastward. as this trough drops across
lake erie this morning, the flow will veer to 270-280 degrees
for several hours and push the band back onshore. this combined
with increasing south shore convergence from a thermal lake
aggregate trough could support the bands consolidating into a
west-east mega band over portions of eastern lake, ne geauga,
northern and central ashtabula, erie, and far northern crawford
counties. href cams are showing their typical south bias with
west-east single band events, but upstream radar trends and
boundary layer wind analysis off the rap through early afternoon
supports this band at least along the lakeshore. rap bufkit
soundings show equilibrium levels rising to 10-12 thousand feet
this morning as 850 mb temps cool to -20 c, with strong omega
through a saturated dgz, so snowfall rates will easily reach 1-2
inches per hour in the band. winds will also remain gusty in the
cold air advection, especially along the edge of the lake band
where gusts over 30 knots are possible, so kept blowing snow in
northern portions of the primary snowbelt east of cleveland and
in nw pa.

the band is still expected to drift back out over lake erie from
mid afternoon into this evening as the boundary layer flow backs
again ahead of another mid-level shortwave and associated
surface trough. href guidance remains in agreement with this
idea, as does the rap plan view wind field analysis and bufkit
soundings. this will eventually give a break in the snow for
northern ashtabula and erie counties. behind the trough, the
boundary layer flow will veer to 280-300 degrees, and this will
push the band back into ne ohio and nw pa starting around 03z
tonight, but in a weakening phase as surface ridging building
into the ohio valley leads to a lowering inversion and
increasing shear. the lake-effect snow will finally end
completely by friday afternoon as the ridging moves overhead.

in terms of headline decisions, expanded the lake effect snow
warnings into ashtabula county and issued winter weather
advisories for geauga and crawford counties. all headlines were
also extended through 12z friday to capture the heavy snow today
followed by the return of lighter snow tonight. snowfall amounts
of 6-12 inches are a solid bet across much of erie county, with
4 to 8 inches and pockets of 10 inches across ashtabula county.
amounts of 3-5 inches in northern and eastern lake, far ne
geauga, and far northern crawford counties are likely.

finally, wind chills will be significant today. highs will only
reach the upper teens to low 20s with wind chills in the single
digits to 3 below at times. the coldest wind chills will be this
morning. lows tonight will fall into the low/mid teens before
rebounding into the mid/upper 20s friday.

&&

.short term /friday night through sunday night/...
fair weather is expected friday night through saturday as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies a high pressure ridge at the
surface and aloft that will build e`ward across our region.
overnight lows are expected to reach mainly the 10f to 20f range
around daybreak saturday. on saturday, afternoon highs are expected
to reach the mid 30`s to mid 40`s as our cwa becomes located along
the western periphery of the surface portion of the ridge and net
low-level waa impacts northern oh and nw pa.

periods of rain, heavy at times, are expected saturday night through
sunday night as a low-level return flow of warm/humid air
originating over the southern gulf stream and gulf of mexico
undergoes isentropic ascent aloft over our cwa. we will continue to
monitor the hydrological situation closely given the expected
rainfall and melting of snow cover across portions of our cwa.
simultaneously, the ridge at the surface and aloft continues to exit
slowly e`ward and a trough at the surface and aloft approaches from
the north-central united states and vicinity. the atmospheric column
may be cold enough for rain to mix with or change to wet snow at
times generally south of i-90 and east of i-77 saturday night into
sunday morning. any snow accumulations are expected to be less than
one inch. overnight lows are expected to reach mainly the mid 20`s
to mid 30`s late saturday evening before readings moderate slightly
by daybreak sunday as net low-level waa strengthens. as this
stronger net low-level waa persists, afternoon highs are expected to
reach the upper 30`s to upper 40`s on sunday and be followed by
overnight lows mainly in the mid to upper 30`s around daybreak
monday.

&&

.long term /monday through wednesday/...
cyclonic sw`erly to w`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances are expected to impact our region on monday through
tuesday. at the surface, net troughing is expected. a warm front is
expected to sweep n`ward through our cwa on monday and be followed
by a cold front set to sweep e`ward trough our region monday night.
periods of rain are expected courtesy of moist isentropic ascent
preceding the shortwave trough axes and along the upper-reaches of
the warm front, and low-level convergence/moist ascent along the
cold front. low-level waa will contribute to highs reaching the mid
40`s to mid 50`s monday afternoon, ahead of the cold front.
overnight lows are forecast to reach the 35f to 40f range around
daybreak tuesday. afternoon highs on tuesday are expected to reach
the lower to mid 40`s.

current odds favor fair weather tuesday night through wednesday,
when w`erly flow aloft is progged to reside over our region and
stabilizing subsidence accompanies a subtle ridge at the surface and
aloft that should build from the west. overnight lows should reach
the mid 20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak wednesday and be followed
by afternoon highs in the mid 30`s to lower 40`s as weak low-level
caa continues behind the aforementioned cold front.

&&

.aviation /12z thursday through monday/...
most of the area has cleared out this morning except for a band
of light snow showers over ne ohio ahead of a weak trough.
expect light snow and periodic mvfr to continue around kcle,
kcak, and kyng through mid morning before moving out. otherwise,
the main problem will continue to be heavy lake-effect snow
around keri. visibilities have already fallen to 3/4 mile, and
expect this to continue through mid afternoon with periods of
1/4 mile visibility. the band will drift over the lake later
this afternoon and evening allowing for a few hours of vfr
before lighter snow drifts back onshore tonight behind another
trough, so brought visibilities back down to 1 mile around 04z,
but could be briefly lower. high pressure will finally bring
vfr to all areas friday.

w to wsw winds will gust near or just above 30 knots at times
this morning before decreasing to mainly 20-25 knots this
afternoon. winds will become light tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible in rain showers saturday night
through monday.

&&

.marine...
low water advisory in effect west of vermilion. small craft advisory
in effect for nearshore waters from maumee bay to the islands. gale
warning in effect for nearshore and open u.s. waters from the
islands to buffalo. all of these alerts are in effect until 4 pm est
this afternoon.

a trough lingers over lake erie today before a ridge builds from the
upper midwest tonight through friday. in response, w`erly winds as
strong as 25 to 35 knots through this early afternoon are expected
to ease to about 15 to 25 knots by this late afternoon. winds will
then vary between w`erly and nw`erly this evening through daybreak
friday and ease further to around 10 to 20 knots by daybreak friday.
waves as large as 7 to 14 feet through this late afternoon will
subside to 5 feet or less by daybreak friday. winds will then become
variable in direction and 10 knots or less on friday as the
aforementioned ridge builds over the lake. waves subside to 3 feet
or less by nightfall. thus, the small craft advisory will likely
have to be expanded in coverage and extended temporally.

the ridge is expected to exit slowly e`ward from lake erie friday
night through monday. winds become se`erly around 10 to 20 knots
friday night before veering to s`erly on monday, when a warm front
is forecast to sweep n`ward across lake erie. waves of 3 feet or
less are expected in nearshore u.s waters and no larger than 4 to 5
feet in open u.s. waters.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...winter weather advisory until 7 am est friday for ohz012-013.
winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
ohz014-089.
lake effect snow warning until 7 am est friday for ohz014-089.
pa...winter weather advisory until 7 am est friday for paz003.
lake effect snow warning until 7 am est friday for paz001-002.
marine...low water advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
lez142>144-162>164.
small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez142-
143.
gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez144>149-
164>169.

&&

$$

synopsis...garuckas
near term...garuckas/kennedy
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...garuckas
marine...jaszka

Fulton and Henry Counties

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fxus63 kiwx 121113
afdiwx

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
613 am est thu dec 12 2024

.key messages...

- lake effect snow showers gradually diminish today into this
evening. some impacts and slick roads still possible for the morning
commute.

- wind chills as cold as 10 below early this morning.

- a band of light snow possible across portions of northwest and
west central indiana later this afternoon/early evening.

- warmer this weekend into early next week with additional rain
chances saturday pm into sunday morning, and again on monday.

&&

.discussion...
issued at 330 am est thu dec 12 2024

a disorganized multiband lake effect snow shower setup continues
this morning with bands exhibiting some good inland extent given
strong flow profiles. fetch considerations and dry air entrainment
should continue to favor the central/northern portions of
berrien/cass counties for additional snow accumulations to around an
inch (locally 2"). lake effect parameters have already maximized
in terms of favorability. inversion heights will continue to
lower today and extent of cold air advection has shifted better
rh in convective boundary layer to temps around -20 to -22 deg c
which should be less efficient in terms of accumulation. while
lake induced instability will become more shallow as time goes
on today, fetch setup persists which should allow for scattered
lake effect snow showers to continue into this afternoon across
southwest/south central lower michigan. have opted to hold onto
the winter weather advisory with the morning package due to
potential of additional light snow accumulations, gusty winds to
30 mph creating some blowing snow, along with slick road
conditions. diminishing boundary layer depths through time today
should allow for gradual relaxation of wind gusts, but still
blustery conditions (gusts 20 to 25 mph) should hold into this
afternoon.

the timing of the core of low level thermal trough across the
southern great lakes this morning, good low level mixing with
prevailing winds 15 to 20 mph, and temps dropping into the 10 to
15 degree range, will support wind chills of 0 to -10 through
the early morning hours. limited temperature recovery is
anticipated today due to decreasing mixed depths via frontal
inversion and persistence of cloud cover (low clouds from lake
effect and increasing mid clouds). have not made many changes to
inherited max temp forecast today, generally in the upper teens
to low 20s.

looking into this afternoon and evening, will have to watch
evolution of a potential narrow band of snow developing across
central illinois possibly affecting northwest/west central indiana
later this afternoon into early evening. strong baroclinicity across
the region may interact with a developing weakly frontogenetic flow
this afternoon across the mid ms river valley to produce some
bands of light snow as another mid/upper speed max drops
southeast from the upper midwest. some negative factors for this
band formation include an initial very dry low level air mass,
as upstream pwats were sampled at around 0.04 inches with last
evening`s mpx raob. in addition, guidance cross sections depict
very stable conditions immediately atop this low level fgen
forcing suggesting not an optimal response to the forcing. one
possible positive factor for some snow accumulation is that
onset of low level warm advection today should create more of an
isothermal layer that becomes more entrenched in the dgz to a
respectable depth in the low levels. always difficult to pin
down potential band placement with these setups due to tightness
of baroclinic zone and uncertainty where weak convergence zones
set up. did maintain mid-high chance pops south of us 30 this
afternoon/early evening with accumulations less than an inch. it
is possible if band is able to form, some locally higher
amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range would be observed given what
should be high snow:liquid ratio, but confidence in this
scenario is currently low given the dry low levels and
unfavorable stability profiles co-located with low level
forcing.

passage of the mid level trough this evening should diminish the
frontogenetic response with any light snow/flurries across the
south tapering late evening or early overnight. some light lake
effect snow showers also may persist closer to sw lower mi
shoreline this evening.

synoptic pattern becomes a bit more progressive friday into the
weekend with the onset of stronger low level warm advection set for
friday. the biggest adjustment to this forecast continues to center
on next significant trough and associated precip chances this
weekend. tendency over past several guidance iterations has been
toward a sharper mid/upper trough with a delay in stronger moisture
advection until saturday afternoon or early evening. based on these
trends have continued trend of previous few forecasts in delaying
rain chances to the saturday afternoon/night period. can`t
completely rule out a very brief, light mixed precip occurring
at leading edge saturday, but later arrival should keep precip
mainly in form of liquid.

this system pulls out later sunday, but another system will be on
its heels with additional likely rain showers on monday. this
potential system monday may have even more substantial low level
moisture to work with in comparison to saturday system, but also may
be more progressive allowing next cold front to quickly pass through
monday night. after another mild weekend, this fropa should mark a
return to more seasonable conditions by next tuesday. predictability
begins to break down post-tuesday, with active eastern pacific
pattern likely to continue but with a great deal of uncertainty in
resolving additional precip chances. this uncertainty also
yields a temp forecast toward the later periods closer to climo.

&&

.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 604 am est thu dec 12 2024

winds have shifted more out of the nw allowing one of the lake
effect bands to linger over ksbn. with the flow expected to
persist at least a few more hours, tafs were adjusted. at kfwa,
sct-bkn mvfr cigs were in place, warranting a tempo group for a
few hours. eventually activity will calm down and vfr conditions
should settle back in.

an area of weak lift associated with the start of increasing low
level temperatures will fill clouds back in (vfr), mainly at
kfwa. some light snow is possible, but greater chances appear to
be further south and east. winds will slowly diminish through
the day.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
miz078-079-177-277.
marine...gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for lmz043-046.
heavy freezing spray warning until 10 am est this morning for
lmz043-046.

&&

$$

discussion...marsili
aviation...fisher

Monroe and Lenawee Counties

link
860
fxus63 kdtx 121442
afddtx

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
942 am est thu dec 12 2024

.key messages...

- wind chill readings will remain in the single digits to around
zero today through tonight. actual high temperatures today will only
be around 20 degrees.

- a warm up is expected this weekend into next week with highs in
the 40s sunday and near 50 on monday.

&&

.update...

the 12z dtx sounding showcases how ongoing mid level subsidence has
dramatically lowered the inversion, with the base down to 5k feet.
this and the push of very dry arctic air ongoing across southern lake
michigan has effectively washed out the early morning lake
convergence band. under the westerly flow today, a few lingering
flurries or light snow showers with no accumulation is expected. the
winter weather advisory will be expired by the top of the hour. the
12z dtx sounding also had an 850mb temp of -21c. given this and the
current temps which are running a little below guidance, afternoon
highs were nudged down a tad.

&&

.prev discussion...
issued at 702 am est thu dec 12 2024

aviation...

broad low pressure centered in quebec continues westerly flow of
cold air across the great lakes today. the air is also becoming dry
enough to reduce lake effect activation as noted by surface td
around -15 f across wisconsin. some recovery of low end vfr based
stratocu and flurries are likely once daytime instability is
established, and snow showers from northern lower mi could graze the
mbs area by late morning. west wind gusting around 30 knots
diminishes during the afternoon and then gusts drop out with sunset
along with a decreasing cloud trend. the dtw corridor will be last
to see the clouds break up given the continued general westerly flow
off southern lake mi and until surface high pressure gains traction
from the midwest late tonight into friday morning.

dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this morning, moderate this
afternoon and evening, the low late tonight into friday morning.

prev discussion...
issued at 340 am est thu dec 12 2024

discussion...

a short fused winter weather advisory has been issued for ongoing
lake effect snow that will affect the morning commute. the lake
effect snow band has set up in the typical location between i94 and
i96 overnight and will continue through the morning hours as the
lake mi connection remains solid at this time. have adjusted
pops/qpf/etc accordingly to focus more on this narrow corridor with
additional accumulations of 1 to 2 inches likely. some localized
event totals from midnight through this morning may reach 3-5
inches. winds remain strong as the have gusted 30-40 mph through the
overnight so blowing and drifting will likely continue into the
morning commute. the stronger showers have dropped visibilities down
below 1sm at times which will lead to rapid drops in visibilities.
elsewhere, there is a void of snow from m59 up through about m46
until you get to huron county which is still getting impacted
partially by the lake superior to lake mi connection with a surface
trough axis dropping through northern lower this morning which will
act to focus more moisture and may brush the thumb today.

should see an improving trend through the day as a strong 1040mb
high slides up into southern mi. air upstream is very dry with
dewpoints in the negative teens and temps solidly below zero as
well. the building subsidence aloft will force inversions down
toward 5kft or less by late morning. with highs only reaching near
20f, and 850mb temps down toward -20c this afternoon, soundings show
any remaining moisture to be located above the dgz. expectations are
for the current snow bands to continue into the morning before
tapering off to flurries or light snow showers which may carry into
the afternoon in the advisory corridor.

the high becomes centered over the area by friday with mid level
ridging building in as well. thermal trough still lingers through
the day as the warm advection ahead of the ridge does not kick in
til overnight so high temps will remain in the mid 20s. a warm up
then begins and carries through the weekend and into next week. the
mid level shortwave ridge amplifies as a cutoff low, trapped in the
broader longwave ridge, drifts through the central plains. highs
will reach into the 30s saturday, low 40s sunday, and possibly near
50 for monday. the cutoff low brings a period of rain to the region
sunday.

marine...

a very cold airmass continues to filter into the central great
lakes region, with modified 850 mb temps aob -20 c today. a tight
pressure gradient and good mixing tapping into 45 knots of flow (925
mb) will be conducive for westerly gusts reaching gales this morning
over much of lake huron, with the strongest winds expected to be
over southern lake huron, as lake aggregate troughing holds over the
northern great lakes. the gale warnings continue through 4 pm.

winds will diminish late today, and especially tonight and friday as
the airmass modifies and high pressure slides through southern lower
michigan.

moderate return flow/southeast winds behind the retreating high for
the first half of the weekend will lead to even warmer temperatures,
with most of the precipitation falling for the second half of the
weekend falling as rain, as low pressure tracks in from the midwest.

&&

.dtx watches/warnings/advisories...
mi...winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for miz068>070-
075-076.

lake huron...gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.

lake st clair...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lcz460.

michigan waters of lake erie...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez444.

low water advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez444.

&&

$$

update.......sc
aviation.....bt
discussion...drk
marine.......sf


you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.