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fxus61 kcle 191740
afdcle

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1240 pm est wed feb 19 2020

.synopsis...
a trough will linger across the eastern great lakes this morning.
high pressure over the northern plains will build south across the
mid-mississippi and ohio valleys on thursday, then continuing to the
southeastern united states through saturday.

&&

.near term /through thursday/...
slightly increased the chance for lake effect snow with this
update, mainly for portions of northwest pennsylvania. still
expecting it to be light lake effect snow with snow
accumulations of less than an inch.

original discussion...
aside from ne ohio and nw pennsylvania, cloud cover has
struggled to expand across the area. these clouds will linger
through the morning as cold advection continues at 925mb then
mostly clear this afternoon as the surface ridge expands
eastward. can not rule out a few flurries in pa this morning but
a little better chance is expected late tonight into thursday
am as the trough sinking south out of central canada crosses the
great lakes. the airmass is cold enough by that time for
moderate instability with inversion heights extending up to 7000
feet. northwest low level flow may also contribute some
moisture from lake huron. raised pops to around 40 percent but
will not go higher given the overall dryness of the airmass.

temperatures this morning are starting off nearly 20 degrees below
what they were yesterday at this time. highs today will range from
the upper 20s to lower 30s. good cooling before the clouds arrive on
wednesday night will help temperatures reach the teens, followed by
high temperatures on thursday in the 20s.

&&

.short term /thursday night through saturday night/...
the short term forecast period will be remarkably quiet for late
february. some cold air over the region and some residual moisture
may allow for some very light lake effect snow showers in nw pa to
start the period, but any accumulations will be negligible. high
pressure over the midwest on thursday night will slide southeast
towards the tennessee valley through the rest of the period with a
strong upper ridge overhead in the great lakes region, allow for
quiet, dry weather. cold, dry, continental air ahead of the high
will allow for thursday night to be fairly cold with lows in the
teens and perhaps wind chills in the single digits. as high pressure
pivots south of the forecast area on friday, southwest flow will
enter the region and a surge of warmer air will allow for
temperatures to recover. high temperatures on friday appear to be
near normal and then surge higher into the 40s on saturday.

&&

.long term /sunday through tuesday/...
the long term forecast period will feature a pattern change from the
dry and warm to what could be more active through next week. high
pressure will be south of the area to start on sunday with some more
upper ridging entering the great lakes region. given the warming
trend on friday and saturday, if sunday ends up being dry with fair
skies, it may be the warmest day of the forecast with temperatures
in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees in some areas. however, a fairly
robust shortwave trough over the four corners region will enter the
central conus on sunday and support a low pressure system that will
target the forecast area for monday. as a warm front and better
moisture enter the region on sunday night, rain is possible over the
forecast area and any earlier timing on this could limit the high
temperatures a bit on sunday. this system approaches on monday and
will allow for rain over the area, but the strength and path of this
low is still quite uncertain as the gfs is weaker with the low but
takes it over the forecast area and the ecmwf is stronger and keeps
it south. with a southern solution, temperatures could dip in a
hurry and precipitation may switch over to snow. of course, all in
all, there is plenty of time before the final evolution of this
system and will just keep a generic 30-40 pop for monday. beyond
this system, the extend guidance falls away from each other fairly
quickly, but everything is showing an active week so will keep a
precipitation mention in the forecast at this time.

&&

.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
some residual lake effect clouds providing brief mvfr conditions
at keri right now, which should give way to mostly clear skies
this afternoon. all taf sites will have vfr conditions tonight.
upper level trough moves across the area late tonight and
tomorrow, producing more clouds, especially downstream lake
erie. mvfr ceilings are likely at all taf sites tomorrow morning
except at ktol and kfdy where only mid-level clouds are
expected. very light lake effect snow may be around keri as
well. northwest flow around 10 knots this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon with lighter conditions expected for tonight and
tomorrow morning.

.outlook...non-vfr possible with rain/snow sunday night and all
rain on monday.

&&

.marine...
a secondary cold front will cross lake erie today allowing for a
brief window of elevated northwest winds over the basin this
morning. waves over the eastern basin have already responded behind
the first cold front on tuesday and so this push will only prolong
the window of higher waves. the current small craft advisory has
already accounted for this and will maintain the headline as is
through late morning and afternoon. high pressure over the northern
plains will build southeast tonight and slowly settle over the
tennessee valley by saturday. this area of high pressure will extend
over the great lakes region. through thursday night, high pressure
remains to the northwest of the region and will allow for mostly
northwest flow over the lake. as the high pivots southwest of the
lake on friday into saturday, flow will shift around more to the
southwest and with a strong pressure gradient in place between this
system and a low pressure system moving well north through canada,
winds could be somewhat strong up to 20 knots on friday night into
saturday. high pressure will move off the southeast us coast on
sunday and flow will become lighter and more southerly. at this
time, past this afternoon, no marine headlines are expected.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
lez147>149.

&&

$$
synopsis...kec
near term...kec/saunders
short term...sefcovic
long term...sefcovic
aviation...saunders
marine...sefcovic