328
fxus61 kcle 082339
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
639 pm est sun nov 8 2026
.what has changed...
no major changes to the forecast as it remains on track.
&&
.key messages...
1) scattered showers across northwestern pennsylvania tonight into
monday followed by high pressure to begin the week.
2) unsettled weather begins mid week with rounds of precipitation
followed by lake effect showers and cooler temperatures through
the weekend.
&&
.discussion...
key message 1...
low pressure will move into the james bay region this afternoon and
begin to weaken through the evening. the associated cold front will
move northwest to southeast across the region becoming less defined
as it moves across lake erie. the front itself will be fairly dry
outside of far northeastern ohio and northwestern pennsylvania. the
majority of the precipitation that occurs will be lake effect driven
as the lake is still relatively warm compared to the air moving in
behind the cold front. 850mb temperatures across that portion
of the area will drop down to near 0c during the day on monday.
though, most of the moisture will exit to the east by midday
monday as the 925mb ridge begins to build in and dwindle the
lake effect into the evening. generally, not expecting much
accumulation across northwestern pennsylvania, around a couple
of tenths of an inch at most with all of it staying as rain with
the warmer lower levels. a more widespread side effect to this
system, will be the gusty winds into the evening today. winds
will generally be out of the west- southwest ahead of the cold
front at 10-20 mph with gusts around 25- 30 mph and occasionally
up to 30-35 mph. winds will subside this evening.
high pressure will build in across the ohio valley during the day
monday and persist into tuesday before building off the east coast.
dry weather is expected during that time with relatively seasonable
temperatures, if not a few degrees warmer than average.
key message 2...
as high pressure departs to the east on wednesday, low pressure will
begin to deepen to the west across the mid-mississippi valley.
there`s still some discrepancies in the models on the exact track
and magnitude of the low as it enters the southern great lakes
region. though confidence is high that there will be widespread
precipitation beginning late wednesday evening through thursday
night. the low pressure will depart off to the northeast friday into
saturday and persistent north to northwesterly flow will set up
across the region. there will be a much cooler air mass moving in
behind the low as well dropping highs down into the mid to low 40s
and overnight lows into the upper 20s to low 30s. with that,
confidence is increasing in prolonged lake effect precipitation
expected into the weekend. and with the colder air mass moving in,
there is potential for a rain/snow mix this weekend across northeast
ohio and northwestern pennsylvania.
it is still unknown how long the lake effect will persist as
models disagree on how quickly the low exits and the oncoming
ridge builds into the region. the ai models of the ecmwf and gfs
are trending to hold onto the lake effect for longer, lasting
into early next weeks. whereas the non-ai version of those
models move the precipitation out quicker. depending on the
solution will determine if there will be any rain/snow mix or if
there will be mainly rain. at this point, confidence is low to
say either way.
&&
.aviation /00z monday through friday/...
vfr conditions are favored at most terminals through the
majority of the taf period, although low-end vfr ceilings will
increase across ne oh/nw pa as a cold front pushes southeast
across the area tonight. scattered showers are likely at keri
later tonight into early monday morning which may briefly result
in mvfr conditions in lower ceilings and reduced visibilities
if a heavier shower moves over the terminal. otherwise, lake
effect clouds in the 3500 to 5000 ft agl range will persist at
ne oh/nw pa terminals through the end of the taf period,
although ceilings will likely begin lifting from the west by
late monday afternoon.
winds will largely be out of the west at 6 to 12 knots with
gusts to 20 knots through tonight, but flow will most likely
remain elevated at keri with gusts to 25 to 30 knots likely
through the overnight hours. surface winds will shift to the
northwest during the day monday before diminishing to 10 knots
or less at most terminals and becoming more west/southwest
towards 00z tuesday.
outlook...non-vfr likely in rain showers and low ceilings
wednesday night through friday.
&&
.marine...
the small craft advisory for all of the nearshore zones remains in
effect through this evening. winds are currently out of the west-
southwest at 15-25 knots with gusts around 30 knots. waves are
around 5 to 8 feet. they will slowly veer to be more out of the
northwest by this evening and the winds and waves in the zones to
the west of the islands will begin to subside. the advisory will
fall off for those zones tonight at 10pm. to the east of the
islands, winds will continue to be 15-25 knots with waves 5 to 9
feet through midday monday before they begin to subside. the small
craft advisory currently runs through 10am monday for the islands
through avon point and to 3pm for the rest of the eastern zones.
there is potential that waves could be slow to subside monday
afternoon and the small craft will need to be extended for the those
eastern zones. additionally, with the westerly winds, the water
level in the western basin will drop close to the critical mark this
afternoon, though should stay above it. water levels will begin to
rise as the winds shift to be northwesterly.
later in the week, winds and waves will begin to increase again on
tuesday as a low pressure system moves north of the great lakes.
those will subside late tuesday into early wednesday morning with
high pressure building into the ohio valley. low pressure will move
through the ohio valley early thursday with winds shifting from the
east to the north by late thursday night. winds and waves will
increase as they shift to the north and another round of small
craft advisories will be needed for the majority of the lake
lasting into the weekend.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez142-
143.
small craft advisory until 10 am est monday for lez144-145.
small craft advisory until 3 pm est monday for lez146>149.
&&
$$
discussion...23
aviation...15
marine...23