186
fxus61 kcle 272049
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
349 pm est thu nov 27 2025
.synopsis...
low pressure centered over the northern great lakes region will
maintain a surface trough over the area through friday. a very brief
area of high pressure will push east on saturday before another
system moves from the southern plains northeast across the region on
sunday. high pressure returns for the start of next week.
&&
.near term /through friday night/...
the main focus will be continued lake effect snow across the snowbelt
region through friday and into friday night, with the most impactful
snow falling through tonight. a few wind gusts up to 45 mph remain
possible near the immediate lakeshore through the first half of
tonight, for which a wind advisory remains in effect.
outside of the lake erie snowbelt, flurries and scattered snow
showers are expected this evening as a shortwave and weak surface
trough cross the area. these may leave a dusting of snow, especially
towards and after sunset. some flurries and brief snow showers from
lake michigan will likely continue to stream east-southeast across
northwest and north central oh overnight tonight into friday, with
additional localized dustings where snow showers track. lows will
range from near 30 along the immediate lakeshore to low-mid 20s well-
inland tonight, with wind chills in the 10s. highs on friday will be
similar to or perhaps a degree or two warmer than today, mainly low to
mid 30s, with mainly dry conditions outside of the minor lake michigan
activity. lows friday night will range from the upper 10s well-
inland to the mid 20s along the lake, with mainly clear and quiet
conditions outside of the lake effect.
as for the lake effect...
will start with changes to the forecast...based on current band
placement and organization, have upgraded trumbull county to a lake
effect snow warning. based on reports of 1-3" this morning, a period
of no accumulating snow and melting this afternoon, and forecast new
amounts of 1-4" in northern ashtabula and 2-5" in northern erie for
the rest of the event, downgraded the two lakeshore zones to an
advisory to reflect overall lower impacts in those lakeshore
communities. otherwise, all headlines remain as previously posted.
activity is increasing in organization and intensity this afternoon as
lift improves ahead of an approaching shortwave and surface
trough...these features will cross early this evening, veering winds
to a bit more of a west- northwest direction, especially over the
lake. a secondary trough will drop across the lake around midnight,
bringing another increase in synoptic moisture/lift and veering the
winds more late tonight into friday morning. the flow will remain
west-northwest through friday before starting to back more westerly
friday night as surface ridging builds in.
expect the lake effect to continue inching south through this
evening, push south a bit more substantially overnight tonight, hold
nearly steady in location through friday, and then start shifting
east-northeast friday night. activity will peak in intensity through
the first half of tonight as instability increases/deepens and as
cooling temperatures aloft allow for improved snow growth and higher
snow to liquid ratios. snow rates of 1 to briefly 2 inches per hour
are possible within the more organized bands through midnight tonight.
conditions become slightly less conducive for lake effect overnight
tonight resulting in perhaps a modest downtrend in organization and
intensity, with a more notable period of some subsidence and drier
boundary layer air expected for several hours during the day friday.
this, along with high temperatures near freezing, should lead to snow
accumulations and impacts notably decreasing during the day friday.
one last uptick in organization and intensity is possible into friday
evening as winds begin backing, lengthening the fetch over the lake
and increasing convergence near the shoreline. however, building
ridging will likely put a lid on how prolonged or intense this uptick
is friday evening into friday night.
there are currently three bands of lake effect evident on radar...a
primary one across the western basin into the cleveland area,
extending east-southeast towards trumbull county...another from
eastern lake/northern ashtabula into southern erie and northern
crawford...and a third clipping northeastern erie county pa. between,
less organized and more cellular snow showers are ongoing. the
southern band near cleveland is and likely will remain the most
intense. expect the ongoing bands to inch south through this evening.
as winds veer more west- northwest overnight into friday we will
likely see these bands push farther south and then break apart into a
mix of weaker and more narrow multi-bands and more general upslope
snow showers. the exception is the current primary southern band,
which may maintain some organization into friday morning across parts
of central/southern cuyahoga county, northern summit/portage counties
and into most trumbull. some light accumulations are in the forecast
as far southwest as northern/eastern lorain, northern medina, central
summit, central portage, and northern mahoning county to account for
some uncertainty regarding how far south this band may push friday
morning before likely breaking up by midday. one or two more organized
west-east bands may re-develop friday evening into friday night from
the cleveland area points east, though intensity shouldn`t be too
crazy by then (rates perhaps in the 1/2" per hour range).
no major changes to the overall snow totals, though given an
increasingly short fetch and onshore component to the strong flow off
the warm lake, lakeshore communities will continue to generally see
lesser accumulations. this is one area where overall totals trended
notably down from the prior update. given current organization into
trumbull county totals there increased just a bit, enough to prompt
the warning upgrade. otherwise, the flavor of the event remains the
same as previously laid out with peak amounts across the higher
terrain of the primary snowbelt, with localized storm totals over 12"
in northeast ohio and up to 20" in southeastern erie county pa. will
also need to monitor northern portage over the next several hours, as
if good banding settles into there this evening the route 82 corridor
would likely see 5-8" of snow, which would need a warning. the
current end time of headlines of 7 pm in ohio may be a bit awkward if
we see a last gasp uptick in intensity friday evening, though will
allow future forecasts better evaluate that.
&&
.short term /saturday through sunday night/...
the main focus for the short term forecast period is the increasing
likelihood of widespread light to moderate accumulations of wet snow
late saturday afternoon through early sunday morning across the entire
area, with the greatest impacts expected saturday evening and saturday
night and the highest accumulations expected across northwest ohio.
a flat shortwave and associated (fairly weak) surface low will lift
east-northeast out of the upper mississippi valley and into the
southern great lakes saturday night into sunday. most of our
precipitation with this system will come courtesy of warm/moist
advection and lift within the warm conveyor belt ahead of the
shortwave and surface low between late saturday afternoon and early
sunday morning. a mid-level dry slot will overspread the area sunday
morning, allowing for a decrease in precipitation intensity and
perhaps even some dry breaks. the low pressure`s accompanying cold
front crosses sunday afternoon/early evening, with colder air aloft
returning amid west-northwest flow as a weak mid-level deformation
zone grazes the forecast area. this will bring some returning light
precip chances late in the day sunday that give way to (relatively
minor) lake effect across the snowbelt sunday night.
temperatures aloft are forecast to remain cold enough for mainly or
all snow through this event, though mid-level warm air may get close
to the route 30 corridor east of mansfield during the day sunday. that
said, it will be surface temperatures that will be most impactful to
precip types and potential snow ratios/accumulations. expect
everything to start as snow saturday afternoon and evening. surface
temperatures will likely climb above freezing from southwest to
northeast between 3-9 am sunday, with surface temperatures especially
likely to warm quicker once precip rates start diminishing in the dry
slot. it`s likely precip will start mixing with rain (especially
outside of northwest ohio) by sunday morning, with a rain/snow mix
forecast through most of sunday...transitioning back to snow (where
precip remains, primarily in the snowbelt) sunday night.
a push of seasonably moist air, on the nose of a strong low to mid-
level jet beneath a period of coupled jet support aloft, does support
a decent period of steady snow late saturday into saturday night from
west to east across the area. the nature of the snow, primarily driven
by warm air advection, does argue for increasingly low snow ratios and
perhaps general under-performing, which makes us skeptical of more
robust snow amounts output by models such as the nam (which has quite
a bit more mid-level frontogenesis and banding potential than most
other models). that said, there are still enough "positives" that a
widespread accumulating snow is becoming rather confident for the
entire area. the ground will be cold enough for road accumulations,
particularly saturday night, so some impacts are on the table. the
general flavor of the forecast is a 1-3" snow across northeast oh and
northwest pa, increasing to 3-5" across northwest oh, where somewhat
more prolonged/intense lift is favored by most guidance (to go along
with a slower warming of surface temperatures through the event). a
winter weather advisory is likely for parts of northwest ohio. while
considered less-likely, if additional guidance trends towards showing
stronger lift and more mid-level frontogensis (like the nam does),
the potential for amounts to approach warning criteria around toledo
and advisory criteria farther east than currently expected is there.
highs on saturday will generally reach the low to mid 30s. lows
saturday night will be early, in the upper 20s and lower 30s. highs on
sunday will range from the mid 30s to near 40, with lows sunday night
falling back to a very chilly upper 10s to mid 20s range.
&&
.long term /monday through thursday/...
the main potential weather impact next week will be a shortwave and
associated surface low passing to our south and southeast on tuesday.
most guidance suggests this shortwave will be fairly broad and
unphased, leading to weaker low pressure that perhaps tries spreading
some light snow towards our southern and eastern counties. a more
phased solution could bring lighter snow to much of the area and more
moderate accumulations from eastern ohio into northwest pa, though
odds of that are on the lower side with the weaker solution currently
favored. otherwise, generally colder than normal weather continues
with the next cold front (with perhaps a bit of rain or snow) looking
to move across the area on thursday.
&&
.aviation /18z thursday through tuesday/...
lake effect snow continues across the snowbelt region of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through the taf
period, though the heaviest snowfall rates of 1"/hr and 1/4sm
visibility seems likely to miss most taf sites. outside of the
snowbelt, snow showers are likely for much of the area as snow
showers stream off of lake michigan. visibilities within snow
bands will vary between 1-5 sm. ceilings will generally be in
the 1500-3500 ft range. the best potential for heavy snow and
visibilities of 1 sm or lower will be at kcle and kyng late this
evening through the predawn hours friday morning.
gusty winds will continue at all terminals today. most locations
will have westerly winds around 15 knots gusting to 25 knots.
winds may be stronger at keri where flow off lake erie could
result in winds gusting to 35 knots.
outlook...non-vfr ceilings will continue across parts of
northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania through saturday
morning. a low pressure system will enter the great lakes
region this weekend, bringing light to moderate snowfall
areawide late saturday afternoon through sunday morning, with
lake effect snow lingering across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania through monday.
&&
.marine...
west winds around 25-35 knots across lake erie with gale-force winds
primarily across the eastern half. the gale warning was canceled
early west of vermilion and replaced with a small craft advisory.
elsewhere, the warnings were unchanged.
due to the continued strong westerly winds, a low water advisory
remains in effect on the western basin of lake erie through 4 am
friday. water levels will oscillate near the critical mark through
at least this evening.
high pressure with good marine conditions will be over lake erie on
saturday for a brief window. southerly winds ramp up to 30 knots
saturday night as low pressure tracks from the southern plain into
the central great lakes. winds veer to westerly sunday and
northwesterly sunday night and additional small craft advisories are
likely saturday night through sunday night.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...lake effect snow warning until 7 pm est friday for ohz011>014.
wind advisory until 1 am est friday for ohz012-089.
winter weather advisory until 7 pm est friday for ohz021>023-
089.
pa...wind advisory until 1 am est friday for paz001.
winter weather advisory until 1 am est saturday for paz001.
lake effect snow warning until 1 am est saturday for paz002-
003.
marine...gale warning until 4 am est friday for lez142>144-162>164.
low water advisory until 4 am est friday for lez142>144-
162>164.
gale warning until 10 am est friday for lez145>149-165>169.
&&
$$
synopsis...sullivan
near term...sullivan
short term...sullivan
long term...sullivan
aviation...saunders
marine...saunders