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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
108 am est wed dec 8 2021

.synopsis...
high pressure will move east of the area tonight as weak low
pressure tracks northeast across the western great lakes tonight
into wednesday. high pressure will build over the region
wednesday night into thursday, before the next system impacts
the region late thursday through early saturday.

&&

.near term /through tonight/...
the forecast looks good for the overnight. just tweaked temps,
dew points, and winds based on recent observations. light snow
associated with isentropic ascent well to the north of a
shortwave trough and associated surface low crossing the
southern and central appalachians has spread into the region.
low-level dry air is causing most of this to be virga, but some
saturation is beginning to occur over the far south and
southeast counties. expect the best chance for light snow to be
from mt vernon and canton ne through the erie, pa area through
12z before the mid level moisture rapidly exits. light
accumulations of a trace to a tenth or two are possible.

previous discussion...

the upper-level trough advances eastward across our cwa on
wednesday. flow will become westerly to northwesterly in the
wake of the aforementioned surface low late wednesday afternoon
into wednesday evening, which will lead to another round of
lake-effect snow in the snowbelt region through the end of the
period. not anticipating any significant impacts wednesday night
as inversion heights fall and moisture decreases significantly
with the approach of ridging at the surface and aloft from the
west. snowfall totals shouldn`t amount to more than an inch.
fair weather is likely outside the lake-effect snow. wednesday`s
highs will reach the low to mid 30`s. lows should fall into the
lower 20`s wednesday night.

&&

.short term /thursday through friday night/...
upper level ridging will take place over the eastern united states
with an upper level trough diving into the central plains states by
friday morning. this upper level feature will cause low pressure to
develop over the oklahoma panhandle and then begin to move
northeast. the surface low along with high pressure off the east
coast will set-up warm air advection into the forecast area from the
southwest. the surface low pressure system is progged to move
northeast into the western great lakes friday night forcing a warm
front north across the local area. copious amounts of moisture will
stream northeast out of the gulf of mexico into the region ahead of
a cold front. latest model soundings indicate instability will
develop well ahead of the cold front in the warm air advection.
winds aloft will increase to around 70 knots between 5000 and 10000
feet above the surface. instability should be sufficient for the
development of a few thunderstorms and potential exists for these
storms to tap into the higher winds aloft. hodographs support a
veering profile and high shear environment by cape remains low. so,
will need to monitor storms if they develop; especially friday
night. temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 40s thursday
for highs ahead of the warm front. otherwise, lows will stay in the
middle to upper 30s central and west portions of the area thursday
night. warm air advection will bump temperatures up into the lower
60s for friday across much of the area. mild temperatures continue
friday night into the lower 50s over much of the area and lower 40s
extreme east.

&&

.long term /saturday through tuesday/...
deep digging positively tilted upper level trough will dive into the
central plains by the weekend and amplify with time. this trough
will enhance the upper level ridge over the eastern seaboard by
saturday morning. the overall pattern will force the surface low
moving northeast through the western great lakes to deepen with
time. the forecast area will remain in the warm sector during the
first half of the weekend with copious amounts of moisture streaming
north ahead of a cold front. showers will be gradually shifting east
and out of the area saturday night in the wake of the cold front
that will move through the area saturday. cold air advection will
take place behind the cold front saturday and eventually showers
will become mixed with snow saturday night. otherwise, as surface
and upper level ridge build into the region, fair weather will
return sunday through tuesday. strong warm air advection will take
place saturday morning and warm air will give way to cold air
advection as the cold front moves east across the area. highs will
occur in the morning and then fall into the 40s by afternoon and to
the upper 20s to around 30 for lows saturday night. the showers
exiting east saturday night will transition into lake effect in
northwest flow. highs sunday through tuesday will warm from the 40s
sunday to the upper 40s to around 50 by tuesday. otherwise, lows
will be in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

&&

.aviation /06z wednesday through sunday/...
mainly vfr is expected at all taf sites through this morning,
but periodic light snow could lead to brief mvfr vis at cak,
yng, and eri early this morning. confidence is medium on this.
for this afternoon and tonight, vfr is generally expected to
prevail as high pressure builds in, but lake-effect clouds and
possibly a stray snow shower could bring periods of mvfr to yng
and eri early to mid afternoon before going vfr tonight.

outlook...non-vfr possible with periods of snow and/or rain
through this weekend.

&&

.marine...
winds continue to diminish across the lake this afternoon and will
allow the small craft advisory to expire. otherwise, winds will be
fairly light across the lake through wednesday morning. low pressure
will move east across the northern great lakes wednesday and winds
will diminish wednesday night. high pressure will build into the
area wednesday night and a return southeast flow will develop in the
wake of the high pressure. southwest flow will develop by thursday
night increasing to southwest at 15 to 25 knots at least by friday
night shifting to west-northwest saturday behind a strong cold
front. winds will diminish and gradually becoming westerly
sunday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...maines
near term...garuckas/jaszka/maines
short term...lombardy
long term...lombardy
aviation...garuckas
marine...lombardy