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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
404 am edt mon apr 22 2019

.synopsis...
high pressure will remain in place over the upper ohio river
valley today. low pressure over the missouri valley will move
east to the western great lakes by tuesday morning. this low
will continue east into canada and extend a cold front across
the area tuesday evening. high pressure will build over the
midwest for wednesday and thursday.

&&

.near term /through tuesday/...
high pressure at the surface with an upper ridge overhead will
keep the area dry for today. some trapped moisture in far
eastern ohio may present some residual clouds this morning, but
the trend across the area is clear. with a weak pressure
gradient in place, the lake breeze will be in play today, but it
may take some time to develop. believe that the lake breeze will
be through the erie area during the late morning/early
afternoon, but probably won`t get into cleveland until later in
the day. temperatures will be warm today with warm air streaming
in as the upper ridge axis approaches. high temperatures in the
70s seem very reasonable with the highest temperatures expected
west and south. the lake breeze will keep areas like erie and
downtown cleveland cooler as the northerly flow crashes the
temperatures.

the upper ridge axis does not clear the forecast area until around
daybreak on tuesday, and therefore, conditions should remain
dry tonight. for tuesday, a system moving east out of the
central conus will enter the great lakes region and extend a
cold front across the forecast area. there will be shower
activity with the prefrontal trough moving through the forecast
area starting in the late morning. some thunder is possible
especially in areas south and east where there will be more time
for instability to build. with some modest shear in place,
cannot rule out the possibility of a strong thunderstorm, but
wimpy lapse rates will prohibit convection from getting out of
control. converse to monday, temperatures will be warmest south
and east as rain and cloud cover will temper highs in western
ohio.

&&

.short term /tuesday night through thursday night/...
a cold front will push southeast of the area tuesday night, with
some lingering showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder before
midnight. dry conditions will prevail after midnight as high
pressure builds across the region. the high will remain in place
across the region through at least wednesday or wednesday night.
some model differences lead to more uncertainty in the forecast
beginning wednesday night. the latest gfs keeps ridging over the
region through thursday with dry conditions, while the ecmwf
develops low pressure across the ohio valley and tracks it northeast
across ohio on thursday. the gem resembles the gfs solution, so have
kept towards a drier forecast wednesday and wednesday night, with
some slight chance/low chance pops across the south on thursday. a
cold front is expected to push southeast across the area thursday
night, and although models differ with the timing/strength of the
front, have opted for chance pops in the forecast thursday night.
highs will be a touch cooler on wednesday, with upper 50s to low 60s
expected across most of the area. temperatures will rebound into the
mid to upper 60s thursday, with a few spots reaching 70 not out of
the question.

&&

.long term /friday through sunday/...
the flavor of the weekend forecast starts dry, with better chances
for precip during the later part of the weekend. a large area of
high pressure will build across the region friday through saturday,
with mainly dry conditions expected outside of a lingering shower
early friday. models are in general agreement of low pressure moving
into the great lakes region by sunday, although timing/strength
differences preclude any specific detail at this point outside of
slight chance/chance pops saturday night and sunday. highs over the
weekend will generally be in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.aviation /06z monday through friday/...
high pressure over the region this morning has allowed for vfr
conditions to settle in to most area. the lone exception is far
eastern ohio and nw pa, where some trapped low-level moisture
has kept some lower mvfr clouds at kyng and keri. these clouds
have lingered longer than expected and will likely prevent
complete decoupling and fog to develop this morning. have backed
off on fog chances with the clouds and opted for some light
mvfr visibility restrictions. elsewhere, surface
temperatures/dew point differences are several degrees and
probably too high to overcome for significant fog development,
except perhaps kcak if some of this trapped moisture of eastern
ohio can build west. after daybreak, high pressure will be in
control and vfr is expected all day with scattered cloud
coverage. winds will generally be light and variable and a lake
breeze may try to develop at kcle and keri, but there may be
just enough of a pressure gradient to prevent this, so have
omitted from the tafs for now.

outlook...non-vfr possible from late tuesday morning through
wednesday morning with rain showers followed by some low
ceilings and visibilities.

&&

.marine...
high pressure centered over the lake today will very slowly drift
east through tonight, as low pressure tracks from the upper
mississippi valley today into the northern great lakes by tuesday
morning. this will bring a cold front across the lake late tuesday,
with southwest winds 15-20 knots ahead of the front becoming
northwest 10-15 knots tuesday night into wednesday. high pressure
will bring light/variable winds to the lake wednesday and wednesday
night before another cold front approaches the lake from the
northwest thursday and moves across the lake thursday night. there
could be a brief period of small craft advisory conditions on friday
with northwest flow around 15 knots, otherwise the lake will remain
fairly quiet through the week.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...sefcovic
near term...sefcovic
short term...greenawalt
long term...greenawalt
aviation...sefcovic
marine...greenawalt