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area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
252 am edt tue jun 18 2019


.synopsis...
a weak stationary front over the area will be nudge southward
as an area of low pressure moves along it this morning. the low
will move east later this morning and force the front south as a
cold front. another low pressure system will move northeast
along the front wednesday. a strong low pressure system will
move east across the area thursday. high pressure builds in
briefly late on friday. another area of low pressure may impact
the region over the weekend.

&&

.near term /through wednesday/...
the low level jet has increased again near 850 mb and
interacting with a stalled out frontal boundary that is near
morrow county east-northward to stark county. a broken line of
convection has redeveloped this morning over north central ohio
just along and north of that boundary over the same areas that
have been hit hard with heavy rainfall over the past few days.
the current flash flood watch goes until 4 am but we might have
to extend the time a little longer by a few hours for a few
counties across east central ohio. we will make that decision
before 4 am. the main concern now through early this morning
will be the moderate to heavy showers impacting areas that are
completely saturated and can`t take anymore rainfall. additional
flooding is possible through the morning commute. guidance
finally shows this rain to move mostly out of our area by mid to
late morning. as this weak disturbance moves east later this
morning, it should give the stalled front a nudge southward
today. most of the area should see a brief break in the rain by
this afternoon and tonight.

a stronger mid level wave will be moving through the 500 mb flow
from the central u.s. into the ohio river valley region late
tonight into wednesday. the stalled frontal boundary will begin
to slowly lift northward again late tonight into wednesday as a
warm front. the first part of the day wednesday looks relatively
rain free but showers and thunderstorms will increase late in the
day especially along and south of the warm front. we could even
see some stronger convection develop in the warm sector and will
be something to monitor. with high pw values between 1.5 and 2.0
inches, heavy rainfall and additional flooding will be a
concern. additional flash flood watches may be needed for this
next system.

&&

.short term /wednesday night through friday night/...
models show low pressure moving out of mo into il 00z thursday along
a stationary front that extends east into central oh. the low will
move east to northern in by 12z thursday lifting the front north
across the area as a warm front. expect rain to spread into the
region through the overnight period ahead of the low. will have
categorical pops west dropping to chance in nwrn pa. thursday the
low moves east across northern ohio. guidance pops are quite high
and while its hard to fight the trend, am concerned that if the area
actually is in the warm sector precip will be more showery and
convective across the area while the more widespread rain in north
of the region. for now will keep pops categorical but watch model
trends. will also taper pops from the northwest mid/late afternoon
as drier air tries to move in behind the low as it exits the region.
thursday night precip should end quickly as the low moves east and
drier air continues to wrap in. friday looks like a decent day with
high pressure in place across the area. friday into friday night
there will also be an upper ridge across the area however friday
night, the gfs shows an active warm front approaching from the
southwest raising some concern about the possibility of overnight
convection encroaching into the western counties. will go along for
now and have chance pops across the west half of the area. highs
thursday and friday in the 70s.

&&

.long term /saturday through monday/...
saturday and sunday the models continue with an upper ridge across
the region which breaks down somewhat sunday evening. will have
chance pops in place for saturday as models show ample low level rh
for at least daytime convection. sunday looks better for convection
as the upper ridge axis shifts east during the afternoon/evening.
for now will continue with chance pops. monday the ridge is gone and
models show an upper short wave trough advancing toward the area.
will keep chance pops in place as this moves through. drier air
moves in for tuesday however li`s on the gfs drop to -9c during the
afternoon so will keep a low chance pop for afternoon convection
possibilities. highs saturday from the upper 70s to near 80. around
80 sunday and monday, dropping back just a couple degrees
tuesday.


&&

.aviation /06z tuesday through saturday/...
a stalled frontal boundary remains from west to east over
northern and central ohio. winds over the next 12 to 24 hours
will remain on the light and variable side near the boundary.
north of the boundary, the winds will be light from the
northeast this morning. by the end of the taf period, the winds
will gradually become southerly about 5 knots as the boundary
slowly lifts northward. patchy fog and mist may impact taf
locations through early this morning with mvfr to pockets of ifr
conditions possible. scattered showers, some briefly moderate to
heavy at times, may also impact locations through early this
morning as well. these impacts will be mainly for central ohio
into east central ohio this morning. ceilings will also lower
through early morning with most locations seeing mvfr to ifr
ceilings by sunrise. ceilings will slowly improve during day
except for areas near the frontal boundary where mvfr ceilings
will linger through the afternoon and evening.

outlook...non-vfr possible through friday.

&&

.marine...
models continue to show an extended period of rather light winds on
lake erie. the only exception will be thursday night into early
friday when winds turn out of the north behind low pressure moving
east of the area. winds will likely increase to the 10 to 20 knot
range and while waves may not reach small craft criteria, boaters
will be bounced around on the south half of the lake for the 18 hour
period. winds drop back to under 10 knots again by late friday.

&&

.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...flash flood watch until 4 am edt early this morning for ohz017-
020>023-027>033-036>038-047.
pa...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$
synopsis...griffin
near term...griffin
short term...tk
long term...tk
aviation...griffin
marine...tk