fxus61 kcle 100220
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1020 pm edt thu jul 9 2020
a cold front over the midwest will continue east into the great
lakes region for friday. the front will slow over the area on
friday night and a weak disturbance will ripple through the
front on saturday. a secondary cold front will push through on
sunday. high pressure will attempt to build in from the
southwest for the beginning of next week.
.near term /through friday night/...
thunderstorms have mostly diminished across the area with the
only activity now residing across the inland areas of nw pa.
this activity is expected to decrease in intensity and coverage
over the next couple of hours. will have to continue to monitor
some areas for minor flooding potential with storm total
precipitation estimates of around 3 to 4 inches over the past
couple of hours, especially just east of cambridge springs, pa.
have also added mention in the hwo for some strong to severe
storms in nw oh tomorrow (friday) afternoon.
some isolated showers and thunderstorms are present over the
area this afternoon. expect that coverage will increase over the
next couple of hours as the atmosphere hits its peak in heating
and a lake breeze advances southward, allowing for some
additional lift to initiate convection. while iso/sct showers
and storms are expected, the best coverage will be in ne oh/nw
pa where the lake breeze is strongest and where there is a touch
better moisture. much of the convective activity will diminish
tonight with the loss of daytime heating. however, some
additional isolated activity is possible overnight in nw oh as
resultant boundaries/convection may allow for convection to
persist, as the cold front approaches from the west for friday.
overnight lows should remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s as
some cloud cover should help keep things warm.
friday will be the first day with more widespread rainfall
across the area as a cold front approaches from the west. with a
very warm air mass over the region ahead of the front, expecting
more showers and thunderstorms to develop over the region. these
will be mostly driven by the instability, as the upper level
flow is fairly weak with the shortwave. there will certainly be
a conditional severe weather threat as there has been the last
several days with the ample instability over the region, which
would be supportive of downbursts. high water content in the
atmosphere with pw values approaching 2" would allow for heavy
rainfall with any storms and a local flood threat is also
possible. the front should be focused for the eastern part of
the area on friday night where a higher rain threat will remain.
.short term /saturday through sunday night/...
upper level trough will rotate into the eastern united states by
sunday and then become split with a slightly building ridge over the
local area sunday night. a weak cold front will move through the
area late friday night into saturday morning along with the upper
level trough. moisture associated with both features will push east
into the area friday night into saturday. as the front and upper
level trough move east saturday, threat for showers and
thunderstorms will diminish from west to east. a reinforcing cold
front will slide south toward the area sunday with some limited
residual moisture in place and with day time heating, could see a
shower or thunderstorm develop by the afternoon sunday and continue
into sunday night. temperatures during this period will be in the
coolest during this two week stretch with highs in the lower to
middle 80s in the east and central and upper 80s west saturday and
lower to middle 80s sunday. lows will be in the middle to upper 60s
saturday night and lower to middle 60s sunday night.
.long term /monday through thursday/...
amplification of an upper level ridge will take place over the
middle mississippi valley region by mid-week and will shift east
over the local area. this will be the precursor to the development
of the next heat wave. long term outlooks are already indicating
potential for excessive heat by mid-week next week. models are
suggesting an extensive southwest flow into the local area from the
deep south that will force increasing 1000 to 500 mb thickness
values to around 580 by wednesday. this will reflect to the surface
as a potential stretch of several 90+ degree days. upper level
ridging and surface high pressure ridge extending southwest from
maine into the area will dominate the local area through the middle
and latter part of the week. dry weather is expected for the most
part except some residual thunderstorm threat monday and then again
possibly by thursday as waves of low pressure move northeast along a
stationary frontal boundary. expecting temperatures to be in the
upper 70s east to lower to middle 80s west monday, lower 80s east to
upper 80s west tuesday, upper 80s east and mid 90s west wednesday,
and lower to middle 90s thursday. lows through the period will be in
the 60s except 70s by wednesday night.
.aviation /00z friday through tuesday/...
vfr conditions across the taf sites this evening with much of
the thunderstorm activity currently ongoing expected to remain outside
the vicinity of the taf sites. only exception might be at
eri/mfd over the next several hours with a small cluster of
thunderstorms located in northern richland county and a small
cluster of thunderstorms located along the pa/ny border in nw
pa. otherwise, expecting vfr conditions overnight.
expecting much more widespread thunderstorms associated with a
cold front tomorrow. showers and thunderstorms are expected to
move west to east across the area, with the earliest impacts at
tol/fdy by the mid to late morning hours. elsewhere, impacts
will begin to be felt in the early afternoon hours and last
through the late afternoon into the early evening hours. main
impacts would be mvfr/ifr visbys in heavy rain with frequent
lightning and gusty winds up to 30 knots possible.
outlook...non-vfr ceilings possible in lower ceilings friday
night into saturday morning. non-vfr could linger across
portions of ne oh and nw pa through saturday.
winds will be quite variable and uneventful through much of the
forecast period with winds 10 knots or less. the exception will be
friday night when winds increase from the northwest around 15 knots
behind a cold front. this will likely warrant the issuance of a
small craft advisory that will linger into saturday morning.
otherwise, winds diminish fairly quickly saturday and go light and
variable once again.