452
fxus61 kcle 140009
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
809 pm edt mon oct 13 2025
.synopsis...
a weak ridge extends from the canadian maritimes to our region
before a cold front drifts southeastward across northern ohio and
northwest pennsylvania on tuesday. behind the front, another ridge
builds from the united states/canada border area in the great plains
through this thursday. on friday through this saturday, the ridge
begins to exit eastward, which will allow a warm front to sweep
northward through our region on friday.
&&
.near term /through tuesday night/...
expanded the mention of fog in nw ohio tonight where winds will
be light but a general downwind location from lake erie will
help to trap moisture beneath the inversion.
low level cloud cover in pennsylvania and far ne ohio looks to
persist or possibly expand westward with weak cold advection at
925mb overnight. have raised cloud cover in the east and even
expecting some patchy cloud cover towards cleveland and the
i-71 corridor with a component of low level cyclonic flow
extending from low pressure along the mid-atlantic. with clouds
hanging on longer than expected, raised min temperatures by a
couple degrees for interior locations in nw pennsylvania.
previous discussion...anticyclonic n`erly to nw`erly flow aloft
resides over our region through tuesday night as northern oh
and nw pa remain located along the northeastern flank of a
mid/upper-level ridge centered in vicinity of eastern tx. at the
surface, a weak ridge continues to extend from the canadian
maritimes for the time being. however, a cold front should begin
to drift se`ward across lake erie and our cwa early tuesday
afternoon, near a youngstown, ny to sandusky, oh to deshler, oh
line by sunset tuesday evening, and exit the rest of our cwa by
daybreak wednesday. behind the front, a ridge builds from the
u.s./canada border area in the great plains and eventually the
northern great lakes.
despite net low-level waa ahead of the cold front, intervals of
clear sky and weak surface winds will contribute to appreciable
radiational cooling very late this afternoon through shortly
after daybreak tuesday morning, when lows should reach mainly
the lower 40`s to lower 50`s in nw pa and the mid 40`s to mid
50`s in northern oh. sufficient low-level moisture amidst weak
surface winds and intervals of clear sky should permit areas of
radiation fog development after roughly midnight tonight and
through daybreak tuesday morning, roughly along and especially
west of i-71 in our cwa. as was the case this morning and
yesterday morning, the most-widespread and densest fog should
impact lucas county and vicinity. future forecast updates may
require the issuance of a localized dense fog advisory.
following the onset of diurnal convective mixing of the boundary
layer, fog is expected to dissipate by late tuesday morning.
daytime heating complemented by net low-level waa ahead of the
cold front will allow tuesday afternoon`s highs to reach the
60`s to near 70f in nw pa and the upper 60`s to mid 70`s in
northern oh. net caa behind the front, amidst a sufficiently-
moist nnw`erly to nne`erly mean low-level flow should allow
lake-effect stratocumuli to develop over ~19c lake erie
beginning tuesday evening and stream generally s`ward from the
lake. the presence of abundant low-level clouds should limit
nocturnal cooling and preclude radiation fog formation. lows
should reach mainly the lower 40`s to mid 50`s around daybreak
wednesday.
primarily fair weather is expected due to stabilizing subsidence
accompanying the aforementioned ridging and expectation of
fairly limited low-level moisture along the cold front. however,
850 mb temperatures cooling to near 6c over ~19c lake erie,
sufficient low-level moisture, and the formation of somewhat
greater, albeit weak, lake-induced instability may allow
isolated/very light lake-effect rain showers to impact nw pa
and far-ne oh after midnight wednesday morning.
&&
.short term /wednesday through thursday night/...
nw`erly flow aloft persists over our cwa during this time
period as the axis of the above-mentioned mid/upper-level ridge
moves from the central u.s. to near the western great lakes and
fl panhandle and the ridge amplifies. at the surface, the
above-mentioned ridge continues to impact our region as the
embedded high pressure center wobbles se`ward from the northern
great lakes toward central pa. primarily fair weather is
expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge.
however, a n`erly mean low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist
air over/downwind of lake erie and weak lake-induced instability
may allow isolated and very light lake-effect rain showers to
impact northern oh and nw pa wednesday morning.
the aforementioned weather pattern evolution at the surface and
aloft will allow net low-level caa to affect our region through
thursday before giving way to very weak, net low-level waa
thursday night. despite intervals of sunshine on wednesday and
abundant sunshine on thursday, late afternoon highs should reach
mainly the upper 50`s to mid 60`s on both days. during wednesday
and thursday nights, at least mainly clear sky, weak or calm
surface winds, and limited low-level moisture will permit
significant radiational cooling. accordingly, lows should reach
the lower to upper 30`s in interior portions of nw pa and
northern oh, while lows should reach mainly the 40`s elsewhere
in our cwa. frost advisories or even freeze warnings should
eventually be required for interior portions of our cwa.
&&
.long term /friday through monday/...
on friday through friday night, the ridge at the surface and
aloft begins to exit e`ward as a trough at the surface and aloft
begins to approach from the great plains. in addition, a
surface warm front should drift n`ward through northern oh and
nw pa and usher-in a warmer and somewhat more-moist air mass
originating over the southern gulf stream and gulf. fair weather
likely persists on friday, amidst stabilizing subsidence in our
region. late afternoon highs should reach the lower 60`s to
lower 70`s. isolated to scattered rain showers are possible
friday night, as isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of the
approaching trough axis aloft, moistens. overnight lows should
reach the 40`s to lower 50`s in nw pa and mainly the upper 40`s
to mid 50`s in northern oh.
on saturday through saturday night, cyclonic and mainly sw`erly
flow aloft is expected over our cwa as the trough axis aloft
continues to approach from the great plains and then the ms
valley. shortwave disturbances embedded in the flow aloft should
traverse our region. at the surface, a trough lingers over our
region as a cold front approaches from the west. periods of rain
showers are expected as weak instability, including elevated
cape, is released by the following: moist isentropic ascent ahead
of the shortwave trough axes and the main trough axis aloft;
low-level convergence/moist ascent along surface trough axes
accompanying the shortwave disturbances. a few thunderstorms are
possible saturday afternoon and early evening. peeks of sunshine
and continued net low-level warm/moist air advection should
allow late afternoon highs to reach the 70`s to lower 80`s on
saturday. abundant cloud cover and continued net low-level
warm/moist air advection should be accompanied by overnight
lows reaching only the 50`s to lower 60`s saturday night.
on sunday through sunday night, sw`erly cyclonic flow aloft
should eventually veer to nw`erly as the main trough axis aloft
sweeps e`ward through our region. cyclonic nw`erly flow aloft
should then persist over our region on monday. shortwave
disturbances will likely be embedded in the flow aloft. at the
surface, the attendant cold front should sweep generally e`ward
through our region on sunday and be followed by residual
troughing over/near the great lakes, including our cwa, through
this monday. the cold front will usher-in a much colder air
mass. daytime highs should reach the 60`s on sunday, before the
cold front passage, and the 50`s to lower 60`s on monday. in
between, overnight lows should reach mainly the 40`s sunday
night.
periods of rain showers are expected as what should be primarily
weak instability, including elevated instability, is released
by the following: moist isentropic ascent preceding the
shortwave trough axes and main trough axis aloft; low-level
convergence/moist ascent along the cold front and surface trough
axes accompanying the shortwave troughs. as the low/mid-level
tropospheric column cools and remains sufficiently-moist, rain
should become lake-enhanced over and generally southeast of
lake erie sunday night as at least weak lake-induced cape
develops. on monday, lake-enhanced rain should transition to
periods of pure lake-effect rain over and generally southeast of
lake erie as mid-level moisture plummets, overall, but the low-
level tropospheric column remains sufficiently-cold/moist and at
least weak lake-induced cape remains over the lake.
&&
.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
main concern with this forecast package will be focused on the
potential for fog in nw ohio again tonight. tonight it looks to
favor both tol and fdy and have included a tempo for fog at both
terminals in the 10-13z window. in the east, a broken mvfr cloud
deck is impacting eri at the start of the period and will
be in place with intermittent bkn-ovc skies. elsewhere looking
for some expansion of low cloud into ne ohio and may result in
an mvfr ceiling at cle, mainly between 07-12z. restrictions to
ceilings and visibilities are likely to improve by 15z on
tuesday. primarily scattered vfr clouds expected for the
remainder of the taf period.
light northeast winds of generally 6 knots or less expected
overnight and may increase to closer to 10 knots on tuesday
afternoon.
outlook...vfr expected before periods of rain showers with non-
vfr on saturday.
&&
.marine...
overall, marine weather conditions will be fairly quiet this week.
high pressure pressure is in control of the weather pattern. for the
rest of this afternoon and tonight, northeast winds of 5 to 15 knots
are expected and waves 1 to 3 feet. a weak cold front will slide
across lake erie on tuesday. winds will be from the northeast 10 to
15 knots and waves of 1 to 3 feet on tuesday. there will be a slight
uptick in winds and waves tuesday night with northeast winds 10 to
20 knots and waves 2 to 5 feet possible. a small craft advisory may
be needed tuesday night for the central and eastern nearshore water.
winds will relax from the north and northeast wednesday and thursday
5 to 15 knots and waves of 1 to 3 feet. by friday, winds will shift
around from the south 5 to 15 knots and waves of 1 to 2 feet.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...jaszka
near term...10/jaszka
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...10
marine...77