762
fxus61 kcle 191158
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
658 am est fri dec 19 2025
.synopsis...
sharply colder and windy today. briefly warmer saturday,
followed by another cold front saturday night, and back to
chillier conditions again sunday. milder heading into next week.
&&
.near term /through tonight/...
cold front is currently cutting through the cwa this early morning,
and with it, moderate to briefly heavy shower activity, plummeting
temperatures, and a wind shift to a more west southwesterly
direction. as of 2am, no transition to snow just yet in the western
cwa with temperatures in the upper 30s, while ahead of the cold
front, low to mid 50s continue to prevail. wind gusts in the wake of
the cold front are generally 30-40mph in cold air advection. primary
driver of the winds is the pressure gradient that has been
significantly strong for the past 24 hours or so. winds off the
surface in the lower levels will be decreasing to around 40-45kts at
850mb, and will not translate completely to the surface despite an
unstable boundary layer. meanwhile, the upper level system will
track east northeastward through the great lakes towards quebec,
taking the main energy of the system with it. these factors, plus
ensemble probabilities that are low for advisory criteria wind gusts
today will result in a wind forecast, that while still gusty, will
be 30-45mph. now the impacts of these winds will still be
significant. expecting wind chills today in the single digits as
temperatures basically fall through the day, and flash freeze
conditions this morning into the early afternoon are a distinct
possibility due to the rapid nature of the temperature drop and
temperatures ending up 5-15 degrees below freezing. also in the
wake of the cold front, surface and low level winds will orient
themselves along a significant fetch of lake erie, and we will get a
fairly short window of lake effect snow developing around 16z.
parameters for snow squalls are setting up along the lakeshore areas
generally east of cleveland. surface convergence will set up just
off shore along the shoreline, and the best instability and 925mb f-
gen will be near the same locations. ultimately, a quick hitter of 3-
6 inches of snow is expected in the erie pa county area, with lesser
amounts near the lakeshore and further west with a slight maximum in
geauga county of around 2-3 inches. continuing with an advisory for
erie county pa as the bulk of the county will be closer to 2-4
inches with 6 inches in a small area in the eastern portion. the
progressive synoptic scale pattern will change things up pretty
quickly for the area with low level warm air advection moving in
after 03z saturday. this will shut down the short lived lake effect
event around 06z, and warm air advection at the surface gets
temperatures back above freezing for the day on saturday. dry
forecast for saturday as well.
&&
.short term /saturday through monday/...
high pressure influences quickly exit to the east as another cold
front rapidly descends on the cwa, pushing through in the saturday
night time frame and forcing temperatures back down just below
freezing for sunday. this is expected to be a largely dry system
with only low end pops for the far northeastern portion of the cwa.
high pressure sunday night, but back into a warm air advection
regime for monday with a few warm front overrunning type showers
late monday and temperatures back above freezing.
&&
.long term /monday night through thursday/...
a continental scale ridge over the western gulf coast
and centered over the mississippi valley will bring a milder pattern
through mid week. this will not completely inhibit systems from
tracking through the great lakes, but the magnitude and impacts of
them should overall be on the lower side. currently looking fairly
mild for the 25th.
&&
.aviation /12z friday through tuesday/...
as of 12z, a surface trough axis extends from near cle to vta
and is quickly pushing east. a band of rain and snow showers
accompanies this trough, along with winds shifting westerly with
gusts increasing to 30-35kt. expect these conditions to reach
cak, yng, and eri within the next 1-2 hours. behind this trough,
mainly mvfr ceilings will prevail with scattered snow showers
persisting. based on latest models and upstream trends, much of
the area may see some brief non-vfr vsby in snow showers later
this morning into this afternoon, though the most prolonged and
significant impacts will be at eri due to lake effect snow.
mainly handled the potential for lower visibility with snow
showers with tempos, though do have several hours of ifr
prevailing at eri. lake effect shifts northeast and ends tonight
as high pressure builds rather quickly, with mvfr ceilings
gradually lifting/scattering out fro the west tonight.
winds will remain elevated out of the west-southwest today, with
15-25kt sustained and 30-35kt gusts common. a few gusts to 40kt
may occur along the eastern lakeshore (including near cle and
eri) this afternoon. winds shift more southerly and lose their
gustiness tonight while subsiding to 5-10kt.
outlook...non-vfr possible in low ceilings behind a cold front
on sunday. non-vfr possible in rain and/or snow showers on
tuesday.
&&
.marine...
strong cold air advection and sharp pressure rises behind a cold
front and strong low pressure will lead to very rough conditions on
lake erie through this evening. west-southwest winds will quickly
ramp up this morning, peaking late this morning through this evening
while veering closer to due west. expect winds to peak at up to 30kt
west of the islands (with 35kt gusts) and at 35-40kt (with 40-45kt
gusts) east of the islands in that window. waves will peak at 10-14
feet in the central and eastern basins this afternoon and early
evening, up to 16 feet in the ny open waters. gale warnings remain
as posted east of the islands through today and into tonight. a low
water advisory also remains in effect for the western basin today,
with water levels expected to bottom out at around a foot below low
water datum (critical mark is 8 inches below datum) between the late
morning and mid-afternoon hours. winds and waves diminish pretty
quickly this evening and tonight as a narrow wedge of high pressure
builds in, shifting winds to a southerly direction by saturday.
another cold front crosses the lake saturday night into early
sunday. south-southwest pick up to 15-25kt on saturday, then veer
west saturday night into sunday at 20-30kt with the frontal passage.
a round of higher-end small craft advisories will be needed, with
winds perhaps getting close to gale for a brief window saturday
night in closest proximity to the frontal passage.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 1 am est
saturday for paz001-002.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez142-
143.
low water advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
lez142>144-162>164.
gale warning until 10 pm est this evening for lez144>147-
164>167.
small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for lez148-
149.
gale warning until midnight est tonight for lez148-149-168-169.
&&
$$
synopsis...26
near term...26
short term...26
long term...26
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan