118
fxus61 kcle 080122
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
922 pm edt sat jun 7 2025
.synopsis...
a warm front will lift north towards the area tonight into early
sunday as weak low pressure exits the mid-missisippi valley.
the low will move east over the ohio valley and lift the warm
front across the area during the day sunday before exiting to
the east by sunday evening. a cold front will cross the region
monday with a trough lingering over the area through tuesday.
&&
.near term /through sunday night/...
920 pm update...
there are no forecast adjustments for this late evening update.
700 pm update...
with this early evening update, there were no adjustments
needed to the ongoing forecast through sunday morning.
previous discussion...
high pressure will maintain influence over the region through
early this evening before a warm front accompanied by a weak
surface low lifts north/northeast from the mid-mississippi and
ohio valleys late tonight through sunday. showers will begin to
lift northeast into the region after 2 am/6z tonight before
overspreading most of the area by early to mid afternoon.
there`s still some uncertainty in the coverage and northward
extent of showers, however the majority of high res guidance
places the highest rain chances across southern zones sunday
morning and east of i-71 sunday afternoon. diurnal
destabilization may result in a few thunderstorms sunday
afternoon into early sunday evening, however the severe weather
risk is slim. precipitable water values will likely rise to
values near the 75th percentile (1-1.25 inches) sunday and
repeated rounds of rain over locations that are already
saturated from previous days of rain may result in some minor
flooding primarily along and south of u.s. route 30. qpf values
will generally range between a quarter of an inch to half an
inch east of the i-75 corridor with locally higher amounts up to
an inch possible where moderate rainfall rates persist.
the will quickly exit to the east by sunday evening and most
locations will see a period of dry weather (or at least relatively
low rain chances) sunday night before an upper trough and
surface cold front begin to move into the area towards the end
of the period. rain chances will begin to increase from the west
after midnight sunday night with precip possibly reaching as far
east as the i-75 corridor by the end of the near term period.
low temperatures will by in the mid 50s to lower 60s tonight
with highs rising into the low to mid 70s on sunday. anticipate
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s sunday night.
&&
.short term /monday through tuesday night/...
an upper level low dives south out of canada on monday into the
upper midwest. a ribbon of deep moisture ahead of the advancing
upper low will be the focus for showers and scattered thunderstorms
moving east across the area on monday. there are differences among
the models with respect to the timing and how much instability may
be able to develop across primarily northeast ohio during the
afternoon before storms arrive. the nam indicates ml cape values may
exceed 1000 j/kg while the gfs has limited instability. bulk shear
values of 40-50 knots will be sufficient to support organized
convection if it can materialize and the storm prediction center is
highlighting a marginal risk of severe weather along with a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall with storm motion parallel to the flow
aloft.
the actual cold front wraps in from the west on monday night but
models so showers generally weakening as they approach the area
monday night. a few showers could cross lake erie but will only have
a low pop for this potential. the upper trough will cross the area
on tuesday with a fairly substantial mid-level dry-slot overhead on
tuesday. an inversion is likely above 10k feet and not expecting
more than an isolated shower or two , mainly east of i-71 on
tuesday. temperatures will tend to be slightly below normal in the
low to mid 70s.
&&
.long term /wednesday through saturday/...
upper trough exits to the east on wednesday with high pressure
building north into the ohio valley. dry conditions are expected on
wednesday and likely through thursday as broad ridging builds in aloft.
temperatures climb back into the 80s during the mid-week
period. by the end of next week we will be watching energy and
moisture moving out of the southern plains with a split flow
pattern aloft. chances of showers and thunderstorms return to
the forecast for friday and saturday but could see this
potentially being delayed until the weekend based on the
evolution of the plains upper trough.
&&
.aviation /00z sunday through thursday/...
the main aviation weather message and expectations for this 00z
evening taf update will be vfr conditions for most of the
overnight. ceilings will slowly lower late tonight into early
sunday morning. after 12z sunday morning, ceilings will drop to
widespread mvfr to lower end of mvfr and generally continue
through the end of this taf period sunday evening. dry weather
is expected for most of the overnight but scattered light rain
showers will move in from west to east sunday morning lingering
into the afternoon with 3sm to 5sm visibility reductions and
light fog or mist as well. some taf sites will see improvement
in the visibility later sunday afternoon over northwest and
northeast ohio. winds will continue to be light 10 knots or less
from the northeast tonight becoming easterly by sunday morning.
outlook...non-vfr is likely at times sunday night as weak low
pressure brings occasional showers and lower ceilings to the
area. additional non-vfr is possible in scattered showers/storms
on monday and tuesday.
&&
.marine...
high pressure over the central great lakes will depart to new
england on sunday. weak low pressure will move through the ohio
valley on sunday with northeasterly winds increasing to 10-15 knots
tonight then becoming more easterly on sunday. this will lead to
some choppiness and waves of 1 to 3 feet for portions of the
nearshore waters.
by monday winds will develop out of the southwest ahead of an upper
level low moving southeast out of canada. southwest winds of 10-15
knots on will veer to westerly with the passage of a cold front
monday night and increase to 15-20 knots on tuesday with 2 to 4 feet
waves. high pressure will build into the ohio valley on wednesday
with winds decreasing below 10 knots or less.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
synopsis...15
near term...77/15
short term...10
long term...10
aviation...77
marine...10