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fxus61 kcle 251800
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
100 pm est sat jan 25 2025
.synopsis...
a ridge continues to exit eastward from our region as a cold
front approaches from the northern great plains. the cold front
will sweep eastward across lake erie, northern ohio, and
northwest pennsylvania tonight. behind the front, another ridge
builds from the north-central united states through sunday.
&&
.near term /through sunday/...
1245 pm est update...
there`s quite a bit of dry air in the lower levels this
afternoon, so any snow showers may struggle to reach the
surface. scaled pops back slightly, but still have slight chance
to low end chance (20 to 30 percent) pops primarily in the
southern half of the area. may be able to scale pops back
further in a subsequent update if things continue to trend dry.
otherwise, no changes needed with this update.
previous discussion...
a ridge at the surface and aloft exits e`ward today as a surface
trough overspreads our region from the upper midwest and western
great lakes, and the parent shortwave trough approaches from the
north-central united states and vicinity. the shortwave trough
axis and attendant surface cold front are expected to sweep
generally e`ward through our region tonight. behind the front, a
surface ridge is expected to nose into our region from the
central great plains and vicinity while w`erly flow aloft and
embedded/subtle shortwave disturbances continue to affect our
region. low-level waa persists ahead of the cold front and will
contribute to this afternoon`s highs reaching the mid 20`s to
lower 30`s in nw pa and the upper 20`s to lower 30`s in northern
oh. low-level caa behind the front will contribute to tonight`s
lows reaching the lower 20`s around daybreak sunday and highs
in the mid to upper 20`s sunday afternoon.
moist and weak isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of the shortwave
trough axis, should allow periods of light snow to traverse our
region generally from west to east from about mid-morning
through this evening. however, dry air at/near the surface
should cause most of the snow to sublimate before reaching the
surface and limit snowfall duration at any one location. in
addition, a few snow showers may accompany convergence and
associated ascent along the surface cold front, but lingering
dry air at/near the surface is expected to greatly limit snow
shower coverage along the front. as a result, fresh snow
accumulations related to the isentropic ascent and cold front
are expected to total one inch or less.
behind the cold front, primarily fair weather is expected as a
lowering and stabilizing subsidence inversion accompanies the
aforementioned surface ridge. however, low-level caa should
allow 850 mb temperatures to cool to near -13c over the ~0c
ice-free waters of lake erie and yield appreciable lake-induced
instability. however, limited synoptic-scale low-level moisture
should limit lake-induced equilibrium levels (el`s) to no
higher than 5kft to 7kft above lake level. these thermodynamics
should allow mainly light lake-effect snow (les) to develop
amidst w`erly mean low-level flow and impact far-ne oh and
especially nw pa overnight tonight, particularly after midnight.
however, the extensive ice cover on lake erie complicates the
les forecast, including intensity and placement of snow. les
intensity may be heavy for a brief time around daybreak sunday,
when some model soundings indicate low-level convergence along
the major axes of snow banding may allow strong/maximized ascent
to be collocated with a lake-effect cloud temperature of ~-10c
as the upper-reaches of lake-effect clouds reside in the dgz.
the les will likely end over far-ne oh and nw pa sunday
afternoon as the aforementioned lowering subsidence inversion
and drier low-level air overspreading our region generally from
the west cause lake-induced cape to wane and lake-induced el`s
to lower to near 3kft above lake erie. fresh les accumulations
are expected to total 3" or less.
&&
.short term /sunday night through tuesday night/...
upper level troughing will be entering central canada late sunday
night as a surface low pressure system starts to deepen over hudson
bay. high pressure will be building across the central plains and
progressing eastward. the surface low to the north will deepen
throughout the day monday resulting in a strong pressure gradient
across the great lakes region. winds will be gusting out of the
southwest throughout the day with the afternoon into evening
timeframe monday to have the strongest gusts to 35 mph with 40 mph
likely in the western counties and along the shoreline. the surface
cold front and trough axis with traverse the region late monday into
tuesday morning resulting in lake-enhanced snow showers across ne oh
and nw pa. qpf totals have been trending higher with this system,
which could result in a few inches of snow across nw pa and
decreasing further west into cleveland. lake effect snow showers
should taper off throughout tuesday before picking up again late
tuesday night as a clipper system moves across the great lakes.
overnight lows for sunday night will dip down into the mid teens
before rebounding to start the week. with the warm air advection
with the southwest flow, highs will reach the low to mid 30s for
monday and tuesday with overnight lows in the mid 20s.
&&
.long term /wednesday through friday/...
there will be ongoing lake effect across much of ne oh and nw pa on
wednesday due to the aforementioned clipper system in the previous
period. there will be a series of shortwaves moving through the
region as upper level troughing over eastern canada will be slow to
move out. this will result in periodic lake enhanced snow showers
through the end of the week. ridging and surface high pressure will
build in the region on friday and any remaining snow showers should
taper off throughout the day.
temperatures will continue the warming trend on wednesday with highs
in the mid 30s but will fall back down into the mid to upper 20s for
thursday and friday. overnight lows will be in the teens to end the
week.
&&
.aviation /18z saturday through thursday/...
outside of a small chance of mvfr vsbys in light snow showers
at kmfd/kcak/kyng this afternoon into early this evening, vfr is
anticipated through this evening. lake effect snow showers will
likely develop across nw pa and far ne oh tonight into sunday
with the best chance of snow at keri between about 06z and 10z
sunday morning. mvfr in lake effect clouds will develop from
roughly kcle to kmfd east early sunday morning before mvfr
spreads west by late morning.
winds will be out of the southwest at 8 to 14 knots with gusts
to 15 to 25 knots through this evening before becoming westerly
and relaxing to 6 to 12 knots with gusts to 20 knots tonight.
may need to consider adding llws to the tafs as a 40-50 knot llj
moves over the area tonight, but currently thinking gusts will
continue mixing to the surface which will inhibit llws at 2000
ft agl.
outlook...non-vfr ceilings in lake effect clouds are possible
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania into sunday
evening. non-vfr with periods of snow are possible monday
evening through thursday.
&&
.marine...
ice growth across lake erie will continue with the sub-freezing
temperatures, but at a slower rate due to the recent warming trend.
with the west-southwesterly wind across the lake, ice could shift
and drift to the northeast and could impact shipping lanes on lake
erie.
winds will predominately be out of the southwest at 15-25 knots
through midday sunday. there will be a brief decrease in winds down
to 15-20 knots sunday night before a strong pressure gradient across
the lakes will increase winds to near gale force. early monday
morning winds will start an increasing trend to 25-35 knots by that
afternoon/evening , with the strongest winds in the eastern basin of
lake erie. a gale watch has been issued for 12z monday through 11z
tuesday. winds will decrease after to 15-20 knots on tuesday out of
the west-southwest and will become more westerly at 10-15 knots on
wednesday after a cold front moves across the lake.
small craft advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
for nearshore waters from maumee bay to ripley ny due to extensive
ice cover.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...gale watch from monday morning through late monday night for
lez145>149-165>169.
&&
$$
synopsis...jaszka
near term...jaszka/maines
short term...kennedy
long term...kennedy
aviation...maines
marine...kennedy