000
fxus61 kcle 101152
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
652 am est sun dec 10 2023
.synopsis...
a secondary cold front will move across the central great lakes
today, weakening to a surface trough that lingers near lake
erie through monday evening. high pressure briefly builds into
ohio from the south monday afternoon into monday night. it then
is shoved southward as a clipper like storm system sweeps across
the great lakes region tuesday into wednesday.
&&
.near term /through monday/...
still a few showers near the eastern edges of the cwa. had to
extend pop`s for this area a little longer but dont think they
will persist past 15z. otherwise minimal changes made to the
forecast.
previous discussion...
a brief period of cold advection will occur across the region
through the morning in the wake of a cold front that is now (0830z)
moving toward central pa. this cold advection is likely assisting
with grabbing some moisture off of lake erie as it is lifted near
and east of the 850 mb boundary. these remaining showers located
near and east of a line from ashtabula to canton will move east
of the cwa shortly after sunrise.
the region then begins to see some weak warm advection this
afternoon ahead of an upper level trough that will bring a
reinforcing surge of colder air across the region this evening
into the overnight. lift with the upper level trough enters nw
oh around sunset with some light rain possible. this rain
changes to snow through the evening as it moves northwest to
southeast across the region. the higher terrain of ne oh into nw
pa will be the first locations to see any snow accumulations.
the lake will definitely enhance the snow as the surface cold
front/trough moves onshore. we then see a transition to lake
effect snow overnight as -8 to -10 c air flows across the lake
by sunrise monday. this only generates moderate instability over
the lake which should keep snowfall rates in check. current
thinking is that we may end up with a couple periods (sunday
night and monday) where 1-3 inches of snow may accumulate each
period. heaviest in the hills near and east of i-79. so storm
total snow may reach 3 to 6 inches over a 30 hour period. we
have not hoisted a winter weather advisory at this point in
time. however the day shift will need to focus on the time
period during the monday morning commute to see if the heaviest
snow could occur around this time. if the heaviest burst of snow
does occur around this time we may do an impact based advisory.
stay tuned.
further to the west across the western primary snowbelt a quick
burst of snow may occur overnight then taper off through monday
morning. accumulations look to be in the 1 to locally 3 inch
range at this point in time. flurries may drift across much of
the region through monday afternoon but we do not anticipate
any accumulations away from the primary snowbelt.
mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions gradually become partly
cloudy from west to east on monday. stronger cold advection
tonight into monday should allow for some gusty west to
northwest winds which will make it feel much colder than recent
days. highs today and monday mostly in the 30`s. however a few
locations across the eastern cwa may see highs in the lower 40`s
this morning then drop back into the 30`s by mid to late
morning. lows tonight range from the mid 20`s to lower 30`s.
wind chill temperatures today remain in the 30`s but fall to the
20`s late this evening, then continue into monday afternoon.
&&
.short term /monday night through tuesday night/...
high pressure at the surface and aloft builds e`ward across our
region monday night. primarily fair weather is expected. however,
lingering lake-effect snow (les) will shift generally n`ward across
the primary snowbelt of ne oh and nw pa during the evening. the les
should exit our cwa and shift offshore around midnight monday night
as the mean low-level flow backs from w`erly to sw`erly.
simultaneously, the les is forecast to weaken and then dissipate
during the predawn hours of tuesday morning as a lowering subsidence
inversion and low-level warm/dry air advection cause weak lake-
induced cape to wane. additional snow accumulations are expected to
be one inch or less. lows should reach the mid 20`s to lower 30`s
around daybreak tuesday.
cyclonic w`erly flow aloft, embedded shortwave troughs, and
associated surface troughing are expected to impact our region on
tuesday through tuesday night as high pressure at the surface and
aloft exits e`ward. another cold front should move e`ward across our
region on tuesday. limited low-level moisture should permit a dry
cold front passage. behind the cold front, light les showers are
possible tuesday night in the snowbelt of ne oh and nw pa as low-
level caa allows lake surface to 850 mb temp differences to rebound
to near 16c over lake erie and mean low-level flow veers from
wsw`erly to wnw`erly, yet low-level moisture remains meager. the low-
level atmospheric column may be warm enough for rain to mix with
snow tuesday evening, especially along and just inland from the
lake. any fresh snowfall should be one inch or less. fair weather is
forecast outside the lake-effect precip. daytime highs should reach
the lower to mid 40`s on tuesday and be followed by overnight lows
reaching mainly the mid to upper 20`s around daybreak wednesday.
a shortwave trough is forecast to move generally se`ward over our
cwa on wednesday as surface troughing lingers. high pressure ridging
at the surface and aloft should build from the northern/central
great plains and western great lakes wednesday night. primarily fair
weather is expected. however, light les showers are possible in/near
the snowbelt as mean low-level flow veers from wnw`erly toward
nnw`erly. the les should dissipate by daybreak thursday in response
to decreasing lake-induced cape amidst a lowering subsidence
inversion and low-level dry air advection accompanying the ridge.
any additional snowfall should be less than one inch. daytime highs
should reach the lower to mid 30`s in nw pa and the mid to upper
30`s in northern oh on wednesday. overnight lows should reach the
20`s around daybreak thursday morning.
&&
.long term /wednesday through saturday/...
fair weather is expected thursday through friday night as high
pressure at the surface and aloft crests gradually e`ward over our
region. net low-level waa accompanying the ridge should contribute
to afternoon highs reaching the upper 30`s to mid 40`s on thursday
and primarily the mid 40`s to near 50f on friday. overnight lows
should reach the mid 20`s to lower 30`s thursday night and the upper
20`s to mid 30`s friday night. a potent shortwave trough and
associated surface trough should begin to overspread our region from
the north-central u.s. this saturday. the nbm suggests fair weather
will continue this saturday and our official forecast reflects
latest nbm guidance. however, some models, including the 00z/sun
ecmwf, suggest isolated rain showers may occur via moist isentropic
ascent aloft preceding the shortwave trough`s axis. continued low-
level waa should contribute to daytime highs reaching the 40`s.
&&
.aviation /12z sunday through thursday/...
still a few showers near the oh/pa border in nw pa. dont think
they will persist past 15z. otherwise mvfr ceilings are
spreading into the region quickly from the west with lingering
mvfr across the east. expect all locations to become mvfr
during the morning hours.
an upper level trough moves across the region this evening into
the overnight with snow expected for the most part. there could
be some rain mixing in at the onset but it will quickly change
to snow. mvfr ceilings are a definite when the snow begins.
downwind of the lake across ne oh into nw pa ifr conditions will
occur with some lake enhanced snow.
winds will be from the west at 8 to 15 knots through the afternoon.
as a reinforcing surge of colder air crosses the region after sunset
winds shift to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots.
outlook...non-vfr expected overnight sunday with low ceilings
and snow showers. lake effect snow will produce non-vfr conditions
across ne oh and nw pa on monday.
&&
.marine...
small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm monday for nearshore
waters from vermilion to avon point and until 4 am tuesday from avon
point to ripley. also, the small craft advisory remains in effect
from 7 pm today to 1 pm est monday from the islands to vermilion.
a cold front over far-eastern lake erie early this morning continues
moving eastward and exits the rest of the lake by daybreak. behind
the front, a trough lingers over lake erie through monday morning.
southwesterly winds around 15 to 25 knots ahead of the front veer to
westerly and then eventually to northwesterly behind the front. the
strongest winds are expected east of the islands. waves as large as
4 to 7 feet are expected east of the islands with smaller waves
elsewhere due to shorter fetch. a ridge is expected to build from
the tn valley monday afternoon through monday night and cause
northwesterly winds around 15 to 25 knots to back to southwesterly.
in response, waves should subside to 4 feet or less within nearshore
waters and remain 4 to 7 feet in open u.s. waters, especially east
of the islands.
another cold front is still expected to drift eastward across lake
erie tuesday through tuesday night and cause southwesterly winds
around 15 to 25 knots to veer toward northwesterly. waves as large
as 4 to 9 feet are expected east of the islands with smaller waves
elsewhere. northwesterly winds around 10 to 20 knots are forecast to
back gradually to southwesterly on wednesday through thursday as a
ridge affects lake erie and the ridge`s core moves from the north-
central u.s. toward the mid oh valley. waves are forecast to subside
gradually to 5 feet or less.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est monday
for lez144.
small craft advisory until 7 pm est monday for lez145.
small craft advisory until 4 am est tuesday for lez146>149.
&&
$$
synopsis...mm
near term...mm
short term...jaszka
long term...jaszka
aviation...mm
marine...jaszka