215
fxus61 kcle 302340
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
740 pm edt mon mar 30 2026
.what has changed...
confidence in heavy rainfall and minor flooding tuesday
afternoon through tuesday night has increased a bit across
northeast ohio/northwest pennsylvania. otherwise, the forecast
and key messages largely remain the same.
&&
.key messages...
1) multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
tonight through tuesday night with the highest confidence
tuesday evening into tuesday night. storms may be strong to
severe and will produce heavy rainfall late tuesday.
2) periodic showers and thunderstorms and above normal
temperatures will continue through the weekend as multiple
systems cross the area.
&&
.discussion...
key message 1...
the weather pattern will become unsettled tonight and
especially tuesday/tuesday night as a cold front slowly
progresses southeast towards the local area. scattered showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms will become increasingly likely
tonight with the highest chances across far ne oh and nw pa. the
best (elevated) instability is expected to remain to the
northwest of the area through early tuesday so the potential
for any stronger storms is quite low at this point. it will be
quite warm and breezy on tuesday with highs in the 70s and peak
gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely during the afternoon. a few gusts
to 45 mph are possible across portions of nw oh during peak
diurnal mixing.
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated as
the front nears the northwestern fringe of the cwa tuesday
afternoon and as the front moves southeast across the area
tuesday night. an initial round of showers/storms is possible
near the lakeshore of ne oh and nw pa with a pre-frontal
shortwave during the afternoon, although confidence in the
coverage and intensity of storms is conditional and low at this
point. widespread cloud cover from overnight/early day
convection may limit instability which would inhibit convection
development during the afternoon. if sufficient destabilization
occurs, there may be some stronger storms that are capable of
producing gusty winds and hail. confidence in precipitation is
highest with the best forcing tuesday evening into tuesday
night. with that being said, instability remains a bit
questionable due to uncertainty in the timing of the front. by
early evening, effective bulk shear values will increase to at
40 knots which will support organized showers and storms. if
instability remains in place, all storm modes including damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. a
slight risk for severe weather (level 2 of 5) is in place along
and north of u.s. route 30 with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
south.
heavy rainfall will accompany convection tuesday night and
there is concern for training storms and flooding given flow
parallel to the frontal boundary and near-record precipitable
water values (greater than one inch). the area of greatest
concern is far ne oh into nw pa where at least 1.5 to at least 2
inches of rain could fall between late tonight and tuesday
night. elsewhere, qpf values will generally be an inch or less,
but locally higher amounts are possible where thunderstorms
train.
key message 2...
multiple rounds of rain and periodic chances of thunderstorms
will continue through late week as the aforementioned cold front
slows over the southern part of the area or the ohio valley
wednesday and lifts north as a warm front on thursday. a series
of systems will likely cross the area late week into the
weekend, but it`s still far too early to speculate on possible
impacts. while there aren`t any strong signals for flooding
during the late week period, the continuous showers may keep
local creeks/streams elevated.
temperatures will cool slightly on wednesday with warm air
advection allowing temperatures to climb well into the 70s on
thursday. locations in the southern half of the area may make a
run for the lower 80s, especially if there`s a lull in
precipitation and a break in clouds. highs in the 70s are
expected to continue into the weekend with overnight lows
remaining above normal.
&&
.aviation /00z tuesday through saturday/...
prevailing vfr conditions this evening through the 18z tuesday.
restriction likely due to lowered ceilings and possible ts for
taf sites near the lake after 18z tuesday. included a tempo
group for showers with visibility restriction down 4sm at eri
through 04z. elsewhere, especially east of i-71, there is the
potential for scattered showers and isolated thunder this
evening, though confidence in coverage was too low for inclusion
(cle/cak/yng). thunderstorm chances, particularly across the
northern taf sites (tol/cle/eri), will increase after 18z
tuesday. ergo, we have added to -shra at all taf sites. and may
need to be included in the next taf package.
winds will remain elevated overnight, 10 to 15 knots, with less
gusts. a marginal llws threat will remain in the forecast overnight
as a 2kft southwest llj of 45 to 50 knots develops and persists
into tuesday morning. winds will increase again out of the
southwest late tuesday morning, 15 to 20 knots with periodic
gusts of 30 to perhaps 35 knots by early afternoon.
outlook...non-vfr likely in showers and thunderstorms tuesday
night into wednesday. additional periods of non-vfr conditions
possible in showers and thunderstorms thursday through saturday.
&&
.marine...
elevated southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots will persist across lake
erie into tuesday night. though winds may occasionally gust up to 25
knots, believe most of the higher winds should be confined along the
nearshore given the cold lake surface temperatures. thus, have opted
against a small craft advisory at this time. the latest sar imagery
from this morning corroborates this, with mainly 10-knot winds found
beyond 2 nm. winds will briefly shift towards the north behind a
cold front on wednesday, 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20
knots and gradually becoming east to northeast wednesday night into
thursday. winds will return to the southwest as the cold front lifts
back north as a warm front late thursday, 15 to 20 knots.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...15
aviation...fz
marine...kahn