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fxus61 kcle 101953
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
353 pm edt tue mar 10 2026
.what has changed...
severe thunderstorms remain a concern, especially overnight
tonight. our wind gust forecast continues to trend upward for
friday`s potent clipper-type low pressure system.
&&
.key messages...
1.) periods of active weather are expected through wednesday night.
this includes the potential for severe thunderstorms, especially
tonight into wednesday, and isolated flash flooding.
2.) variable temperatures and additional periods of unsettled
weather are expected this thursday through next week tuesday. this
includes the expectation for at least advisory-criteria wind gusts
on friday.
&&
.discussion...
key message #1:
cyclonic sw`erly to w`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances affect our region through wednesday night as a primary
mid/upper-level trough deepens and approaches our region from the
west. on the synoptic-scale and at the surface, a strong and wavy
front extended generally ne`ward from the southwestern great lakes
and across southern lower mi and southern on to near the border
between qc and ny/vt/nh early this afternoon. this front is expected
to waver in the same general area through tonight as multiple, weak
lows move ne`ward along the front. on wednesday through wednesday
night, a stronger low is still expected to deepen as it tracks
ne`ward along the front, from the southwestern great lakes to
southern qc. this evolution of the low should allow the trailing and
strong cold front to sweep se`ward across our region late wednesday
afternoon through the evening. behind the front, a surface ridge
builds from the north-central united states through daybreak
thursday. net low-level waa in the warm sector will contribute to
overnight lows reaching mainly the 50`s to lower 60`s overnight
tonight; well-above average for this time of year. afternoon highs
should reach mainly the upper 60`s to lower 70`s on wednesday, ahead
of the cold front. near-record warm highs are forecast. strong low-
level caa behind the cold front will contribute to lows reaching the
mid 20`s to lower 30`s around daybreak thursday.
through this evening, isolated and organized showers and
thunderstorms amidst moderate to strong effective bulk shear remain
possible in northern oh and nw pa due to the following reasons: low-
level convergence/moist ascent along a lake erie lake breeze front
that should advance a few miles inland from the shore from the ne
side of cleveland through erie county, pa before the lake breeze
dissipates early this evening; moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead
of shortwave disturbances, and low-level convergence/moist ascent
along surface trough axes accompanying the shortwaves. these lifting
mechanisms are expected to release weak to moderate and primarily
surface-based mucape over land and elevated mucape over the
relatively-cold/stable lake erie marine boundary layer. there is a
small risk of damaging wind gusts with these organized storms
through early evening courtesy of steep low-level lapse rates and
moderate dcape before the boundary layer over land starts to
stabilize via nocturnal cooling. the potential for small to
marginally-severe hail should increase through this evening as mid-
level lapse rates steepen to near 7c/km to 8c/km as an eml plume
overspreads our area from the wsw and allows mucape in the hail
growth zone to increase as ambient melting levels remain near 10kft
agl. the potential for severe convective weather through this
evening still appears to be non-zero, but minimal.
the predawn hours of wednesday morning are when we are most-
concerned about severe thunderstorms in our cwa. a wsw`erly
nocturnal low-level jet (llj) of at least 40 to 50 knots, at/near
925 to 850 mb, should form over our region. this llj will enhance
moist isentropic ascent, including ahead of the shortwave trough
axes, and enhance low-level vertical wind shear and primarily
surface-based esrh (i.e. esrh values should increase to near 150 to
250 meters squared per second squared). deepening of lows along the
surface front should back surface winds somewhat, which should also
enhance surface-based esrh in our cwa. primarily surface-based
mucape should remain weak to moderate in the warm/moist sector and
effective bulk shear will remain moderate to strong as tropospheric
winds continue to veer and especially strengthen significantly with
height. mid-level lapse rates should remain steep and mucape in the
hail growth zone should remain sizable through about daybreak,
before the eml plume exits ene`ward. accordingly, organized
convection that develops upstream of our region late this afternoon
and evening should persist generally e`ward across our region as a
qlcs and pose the risk of a tornado or two, as mixed layer lcl`s
remain favorable, and pose the risk of damaging hail up to golf ball-
size. damaging straight-line wind gusts are also a concern because,
for example, the qlcs should exhibit a fairly deep/strong cold pool
and dcin should be limited as synoptic-scale low-level warm/moist
air advection persists in the pre-storm environment and limits
nocturnal cooling.
during the day on wednesday, effective bulk shear is expected to
remain moderate to strong as tropospheric winds continue to veer and
especially strengthen with height. primarily surface-based esrh and
mucape, respectively, are forecast in the warm/moist sector,
especially given the expectation of peeks of sunshine and daytime
heating. esrh should remain sizable as the aforementioned stronger
and deeper surface low should cause surface winds to back somewhat
and help enhance low-level vertical wind shear. mid-level lapse
rates should be paltry, though, due to the lack of an eml plume.
the biggest question for wednesday`s forecast is how much renewed
destabilization of the warm/moist sector boundary layer will occur
in our cwa given the expectation of mostly cloudy sky and residual
outflow from earlier convection. if sufficient daytime heating
yields weak to moderate and primarily surface-based mucape amidst
steep low-level lapse rates, then another qlcs along the cold front
with a threat for tornadoes and damaging straight-line wind gusts
would likely materialize. we will continue to monitor this potential
closely. otherwise, if mucape remains paltry, the cold front
passage would likely be accompanied by isolated to scattered showers
and sub-severe storms. note: showers and storms are expected to
produce periods of heavy rain as the low-level warm/moist air
advection from the gulf yields near-record high pwat values in the
warm sector. training convection is expected along the front and
along the axis of tonight`s wsw`erly llj as mean mid-level flow
exhibits a large component parallel to the front and the llj`s major
axis. excessive rainfall and localized flash flooding are not out of
the question. once the cold front sweeps se`ward through our region,
rain may mix with and then change to wet snow via nocturnal cooling,
the wet-bulb effect, and strong caa at the surface and aloft before
precip along the upper-reaches of the front exits our region by
daybreak thursday. any snow accumulations should be less than a half
inch.
key message #2:
dry weather and much colder air temperatures are expected in the
cold sector on thursday as the surface ridge continues building
e`ward, a primary trough axis aloft sweeps e`ward over our region,
and shortwave ridging aloft follows. daytime highs should reach only
the 30`s in nw pa and the mid 30`s to lower 40`s in northern oh. the
ridge exits e`ward thursday night and allows a warm front to sweep
n`ward through our region as a clipper-type low pressure system
approaches from the north-central united states and vicinity. a mix
of primarily rain and snow is possible via moist isentropic ascent
along the upper-reaches of the warm front. lows should reach the mid
20`s to mid 30`s before midnight and be followed by moderating
temperatures as waa strengthens at the surface and aloft ahead of
and especially behind the surface warm front. as the clipper moves
e`ward across the northern great lakes region on friday, the
trailing cold front sweeps e`ward across our region. rain showers
along the surface cold front may be followed by a rain/snow mix
associated with the upper-reaches of the cold front as cold air
deepens behind the surface front. daytime highs are expected to
reach mainly the 40`s to lower 50`s ahead of the cold front. a
strong low-level wind field is expected to accompany the clipper. at
least advisory-criteria peak wind gusts (46 to 57 mph) are possible
due to the following: diurnal convective mixing of the boundary
layer tapping into stronger flow aloft; deep mechanical mixing of
the boundary layer tapping into stronger flow aloft for several
hours behind the cold front as low-level winds/caa strengthening
with height promote steep low-level lapse rates. odds favor dry
weather friday night as a ridge at the surface and aloft moves
e`ward through our region. lows should reach the 20`s to lower 30`s
amidst low-level caa behind the cold front.
primarily sw`erly to w`erly flow aloft and embedded trough axes
should impact our region this weekend through tuesday. at the
surface, our region should mainly be located in the cold sector, but
a warm front should sweep n`ward through our region saturday night
into sunday and be followed by the e`ward passage of a strong cold
front later sunday into sunday night. additional periods of rain
and/or snow are expected courtesy of the front passages and moist
isentropic ascent ahead of the trough axes aloft. mainly near or
below-average air temperatures are expected. for example, our latest
forecast calls for highs to reach only the lower to mid 30`s on
monday and only the mid 20`s to lower 30`s on tuesday. however,
above-average high temperatures are forecast in the warm sector on
sunday. note: a primarily w`erly to nw`erly mean low-level flow of
sufficiently-cold/moist air over/downwind of ~3c lake erie may
generate lake-effect snow monday into tuesday.
&&
.aviation /18z tuesday through sunday/...
primarily mvfr conditions are in place across the area with
mostly cloudy skies. scattered showers are ongoing across nw
pennsylvania at 18z where a boundary resides along the lake erie
shoreline. scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are
possible at eri through 20z. cle/yng could experience a light
shower but not enough confidence in occurring at the terminal to
include through 00z.
the main feature to watch overnight will be a larger cluster of
thunderstorms approaching from southern michigan and northern
indiana after 06z. these thunderstorms are likely to produce
heavy rainfall, with strong to possibly severe thunderstorms.
winds gusts of 30-40 knots are most likely but 50 knots are
possible along with small hail. storms are expected to be
strongest towards tol/fdy after 07z but overall probability is
fairly low given the late night timing. with that said, brought
a period of rain with a 2-3 hour tempo into most terminals
starting as early as 07z at tol and 12z at eri. winds have
shifted out of the north with the showers at eri at 18z while
all other terminals have southwesterly winds near 10 knots and
gusts to 20 knots this afternoon. overnight showers and
thunderstorms will have an impact on winds on wednesday but
breezy southwesterly winds are likely to develop during the
afternoon, with a wind shift arriving in the 20-00z window.
outlook...non-vfr likely with showers and thunderstorms tuesday
night into wednesday followed by rain briefly transitioning to
snow wednesday night into thursday. non-vfr may return in
scattered rain/snow showers on friday. confidence is increasing
for widespread strong west to southwest winds on friday.
&&
.marine...
a stationary front will reside across lake erie tonight with
potential for showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain. the
thunderstorms may have an impact on the winds on wednesday but a
warm front will try to lift north and enable southwest winds to
increase to near 20 knots, becoming westerly to 25 knots wednesday
night with the passage of a cold front. small craft advisories have
resumed and will likely be needed wednesday night.
a ridge builds east across lake erie on thursday with improving
conditions. another very strong low pressure system will track
through the upper great lakes on friday. a strong low level jet will
be over the lake on friday and could see gale conditions both ahead
of and with the cold front that arrives friday night. the track and
strength of this system will continue to be monitored over the
coming days. the strong southwest to westerly winds could also
result in low water conditions on the western basin of lake erie. a
high pressure ridge quickly builds in on saturday with improving
conditions.
&&
.climate...
daily high temperatures are forecast to approach records through
march 11th. here are the record warm high temperatures at area
climate sites for march 10th and 11th.
date toledo mansfield cleveland akron youngstown erie
03-10 72(2021) 72(1973) 72(1973) 73(1973) 69(2021) 72(2021)
03-11 76(1990) 72(1990) 73(1977) 72(1977) 70(1977) 72(2021)
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...jaszka
aviation...10
marine...10