fxus61 kcle 202035
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
335 pm est wed feb 20 2019
low pressure crossing the northern great lakes this evening will
take a cold front across the local area. high pressure will
briefly build across the area thursday night into friday. a
much stronger storm system will move into the central great
lakes over the weekend.
.near term /through thursday night/...
the only area that remains under a winter weather advisory is
northwest pa and for the most part only inland portions have a
threat of freezing drizzle for a few more hours.
second surge of precipitation, rain this time, developing
across in and western oh will work its way across the area this
evening with the front/occluded front ending the precip. not
alot of cold air behind this front, but after evening highs for
the day around 40/lower 40s, temperatures will drop back into
the lower/mid 30s by morning. a few scattered snow showers
possible across northwest pa toward morning.
high pressure should be ridging into the region by thursday
afternoon. some sunshine will be possible thursday afternoon
which may help to nudge highs close to 40 degrees.
quiet weather continues into thursday night with seasonable lows
in mid 20s expected and a mix of clouds and clearing.
.short term /friday through saturday night/...
broad upper level ridge will persist over the eastern half of
the united states friday through saturday and then begin to
amplify along the east coast saturday night. the amplification
of the upper level ridge will be in response to an upper level
low pressure system diving into the base of a negatively tilted
trough. this in turn will cause surface low pressure over the
oklahoma panhandle to track northeast into the central great
lakes by sunday. the surface low will deepen rapidly as it moves
out of the mid mississippi valley region into the great lakes.
the surface low will have a steep gradient as it bombs out and
wind will become an issue across the local area heading into the
weekend; especially after the cold front moves east of the area
saturday night into sunday morning. ahead of the cold front,
expecting strong warm air advection to take place and possibly
produce enough instability for not only showers but a few
thunderstorms. the showers will taper off from west to east
sunday and transition over to a mix of rain/snow in the east
sunday afternoon. cold air advection will begin to spill in from
west to east sunday afternoon. temperatures will be on the
upswing friday and saturday with highs saturday in the lower to
middle 50s most areas and upper 40s northeast. as the strong
warm air advection takes place saturday night, temperatures
could actually warm a few more degrees saturday evening before
cooling down with the cold front.
.long term /sunday through wednesday/...
upper level trough will be exiting to the east fairly quickly
sunday night into monday as a broad upper level ridge begins to
build east into the local area. the upper level ridge will move
off the east coast by wednesday as yet another deep positively
tilted trough will dive southeast toward the local area
deep surface low pressure will move east of the area allowing
gradient to weaken with time monday. this will allow winds to
gradually relax as well as surface high pressure begins to build
east into the region by monday evening. the surface high will move
east of the area as a fast moving surface low pressure system moves
east across the central great lakes in response to the upper level
trough diving into the region. another area of high pressure will
build east into the middle mississippi valley region wednesday and
extend a ridge east into the forecast area.
more precipitation in the form of snow is possible late monday night
into tuesday but the warm air advection in advance of the low
pressure system could change the precipitation over to rain tuesday.
then, as low moves east of the area, cold air advection will return
and change the precipitation back over to snow for tuesday night and
gradually ending from west to east on wednesday.
no real strong push of cold air is expected during this forecast
period as bulk of the polar jet remains north of the area until late
.aviation /18z wednesday through monday/...
still active weather for the terminals, but fortunately we are
nearly finished with fzra/fzdz. still have a little fzdz threat
for tol/yng/cak, but only for the next hour or two. otherwise
either the precip will be ending or temperatures will get above
freezing. eri will still see some light snow for a bit longer.
the relative break in the precipitation continues into mid
afternoon, but then another surge of rain is expected to cross
the terminals for late this afternoon and evening. some fog to
follow the rain. ceilings will be mvfr and ifr through this
afternoon and then ifr for a time overnight along with vsbys.
ceilings slowly lift thursday. winds are beginning to veer to
the southeast and will continue to the south and then west-
southwest with the cold frontal passage this evening. gusts of
25 knots or so will be common just before and after the front.
outlook...non-vfr thursday. non vfr possible again saturday/sunday.
winds will shift around to the southwest tomorrow on the lake
and then become light and variable thursday night into saturday.
a strong and rapidly deepening low pressure system will move
northeast into the great lakes region and this will cause winds
to increase and possibly to gale force sunday and sunday night
in the wake of the cold front. the low is expected to exit to
the east fairly quickly and winds will diminish late sunday
night and monday.
pa...winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for