703
fxus61 kcle 031213
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
713 am est mon nov 3 2025
.synopsis...
a low pressure system will pass by to the north of the region
today dragging a cold front through the area. high pressure will
build into the ohio valley tonight through tuesday night.
another low pressure system will pass to the north the area on
wednesday with cold frontal passage. high pressure will build
back over the ohio valley on thursday.
&&
.near term /through tuesday/...
the general upper level weather pattern for much of this week
will be a fast paced storm track with strong westerly flow
aloft. there will be a several quick moving storm systems and
cold frontal passages that will track across our region this
week.
a shortwave upper level trough is currently over the upper
great lakes region this morning and will quick move eastward
today. there is a low pressure system near the southern portions
of hudson bay and a trailing cold front stretching down into
the great lakes this morning. this frontal will sweep through
the area today and mainly be a wind maker for our weather. this
southern portion of this front is limited on moisture and will
pass through mainly dry for most of the local area. there will
be a chance for a few rain showers across far neoh and nwpa
later today. any rainfall will be very light. the main weather
impact with this frontal passage today will be the uptick in
gusty winds. southwesterly to westerly winds will increase later
this morning 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph very
possible. high temperatures will range from the lower to upper
50s today.
high pressure over the central u.s. will build eastward into the
ohio valley tonight and dominate our weather through tuesday
night. fair weather and seasonable temperatures are expected on
tuesday with highs back into the middle and upper 50s.
&&
.short term /tuesday night through thursday night/...
the mid and upper level flow will continue to be zonal for the
midweek timeframe with strong westerlies aloft. another fast
moving shortwave trough will track across the upper midwest and
great lakes region on wednesday. at the surface, a low pressure
system will develop over the upper great lakes on wednesday and
track north of the area as it deepens. there will be a trailing
cold front that sweeps across the region late wednesday. this
storm system will also be limited on moisture but scattered rain
showers will be possible for mainly northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. rainfall amounts will be very light with this
midweek system. winds will increase again with this weather
system wednesday into wednesday night. during the day, southwest
winds will increase 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. winds
will become westerly to northwesterly behind the cold front
wednesday evening. ahead of front wednesday, high temperatures
will climb into the lower and middle 60s.
high pressure over the midwest will build into the great lakes
and ohio valley wednesday night and thursday. fair weather is
expected on thursday but temperatures will be a little cooler
with highs ranging from the lower to middle 50s.
&&
.long term /friday through sunday/...
the model guidance indicates that a big change in our weather
pattern will develop this upcoming weekend. the weather pattern
will become unsettled and turning colder. the forecast guidance
is showing some run to run consistency on the overall pattern
development but timing and other details are still somewhat
uncertain at this time. we will start this pattern shift on
friday with a developing upper level trough. a storm system and
developing surface low will track through the upper midwest and
upper great lakes region friday with a trialing cold front.
this front all sweep through with widespread rainfall for the
entire area. it may be possible for isolated thunder friday
with the frontal passage. high temps will be in the lower 60s
friday. forecast guidance indicates that a large and deeper
upper level trough will carve out across the great lakes region
and much of the eastern u.s. this weekend. another storms system
will develop around the base of this digging upper level trough
somewhere in the ohio valley and track into the northeast u.s.
later this weekend. another round of widespread rainfall is
looking increasingly likely this weekend followed colder
temperatures into early next week. we may see our first flakes
of the season and potentially even the first lake effect snow
too. stay tuned!
&&
.aviation /12z monday through friday/...
a cold front will move east-southeast across the forecast area
this afternoon. a band of mid-level lift ahead of the front will
bring a vfr cloud deck, with a brief period of showers possible
in northeast oh and northwest pa (including cle, yng, and eri,
with the highest confidence at eri). included a brief window of
vcsh at cle and yng and -shra at eri. it is possible that there
is some brief mvfr vsby or ceilings with the showers, though
was only confident enough to include as a tempo at eri. skies
will quickly clear behind the front, with limited lake effect
clouds possibly keeping a sct040 type deck at eri through the
first half of tonight before high pressure builds in.
west-southwest winds will increase to 12-18kt with gusts 25-30kt
ahead of the front by late morning/early afternoon. winds will
shift more westerly and perhaps pick up slightly more through
the afternoon as the front passes. winds will generally subside
to 7-13kt and lose their gustiness after sunset, with an
exception being eri where winds will likely stay gusty off the
lake through the evening. there is some uncertainty regarding
how quickly cle stops gusting this evening, though they are
slightly farther inland than eri so for now did not linger gusts
nearly as long into tonight at cle for now.
outlook...non-vfr in showers and gusty winds are possible
wednesday and wednesday night and again on friday.
&&
.marine...
a cold front will cross the lake this afternoon, with a strong
period of winds in association with this frontal passage
yielding unsettled/hazardous marine conditions. winds will
quickly increase out of the southwest this morning ahead of the
front, with these southwest winds peaking at 20-30kt late this
morning into this afternoon...up to 35kt east of conneaut.
winds will veer more west-northwest late this afternoon and
evening, and after perhaps a brief lull will again peak at
20-30kt this evening, with briefly 30-35kt east of avon point
(greatest potential for 35kt gales this evening will again be
east of conneaut). gusts to 40kt are possible during both
windows of stronger winds, especially east of conneaut. waves
will peak at 3 to 6 feet west of the islands and 6 to 11 feet
east of the islands late this morning through this evening. the
strong southwesterlies ahead of the front will cause water
levels to fall to near or a bit below the critical mark for safe
navigation of 2 inches below low water datum at toledo. winds
will diminish to <15kt west of the islands by early tuesday,
with a slower decrease through tuesday evening farther east as
winds back more west-southwest. water levels west should
rebound this evening as winds veer and slowly subside.
ultimately, upgraded the gale watch for the open waters in pa
and ny to a gale warning with this package, though it will be a
fairly marginal gale. expanded the warning to include the
nearshore pa waters, as the gradually veering winds will push
the largest waves towards the shoreline. the low water advisory
and remainder of the small craft advisories remain as posted,
with small craft advisories expiring west-east on tuesday.
it will be an unsettled week on the lake. after a brief lull
late tuesday into tuesday night another sharp cold front crosses
the lake on wednesday. the low pressure tracking to our north in
association with this cold front has trended stronger in recent
model guidance. brisk southwest winds ahead of the front will
whip northwest behind it, with 20-30kt peak sustained winds
currently in the forecast and gale probabilities increasing in
nbm guidance to 30-50% east of the islands. small craft
headlines will be needed wednesday into wednesday night, with
gales and low water issues also possible with stronger solutions.
the next low pressure and cold front move through the region
friday and friday night. this will bring additional unsettled
weather and potential for renewed headlines after a brief break.
&&
.cle watches/warnings/advisories...
oh...none.
pa...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 am est tuesday for lez142>144.
low water advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez142>144-
162>164.
small craft advisory until 10 am est tuesday for lez145-146.
small craft advisory until 7 pm est tuesday for lez147-148.
small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for lez149.
gale warning until 1 am est tuesday for lez149-169.
&&
$$
synopsis...77
near term...77
short term...77
long term...77
aviation...sullivan
marine...sullivan