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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1256 am edt tue jun 18 2019

.synopsis...
issued at 1240 am edt tue jun 18 2019

lingering showers south of route 24 this evening should diminish
early this morning. mainly dry weather is then expected tuesday
and tuesday night. then a system will exit the southern plains and
approach midweek and bring a chance for showers and storms
wednesday into thursday. highs will be in the mid 70s to around 80
with lows around 60.

&&

.update...
issued at 825 pm edt mon jun 17 2019

the combination of sheared vorticity maximum lifting northeast
from primary mid ms upper level trough and persistent boundary
sprawled across southern counties has been conducive for shower
and thunderstorms development. bulk of this activity has been
affecting grant, blackford, and jay counties. parts of southern
jay county have experienced one or two rounds of heavy rainfall
the past few days, and greatest hydro concern through remainder of
the evening will be across southern jay county with some street
flooding possible. boundary in vicinity has also been favorable
for a few instances of funnel clouds. activity should gradually
diminish during the late evening into the overnight hours.

&&

.short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 220 pm edt mon jun 17 2019

precip struggling to develop given lingering low clouds that have
resulted in very limited destablization thus far this afternoon
as kiwx radar indicating just a shower or two near southeastern
cwa border. surface analysis has quasi-stationary boundary just to
the south of our cwa and extending southwest back to developing
frontal wave over mo/ar where more organized convection is ongoing
this afternoon. water vapor imagery depicting closed mid-level
circulation vertically stacked over frontal wave which is expected
to open and lift e/ne through ohio valley in the short term. as
this feature tracks south of our area precip chances will be
limited in the short term to chance in far southeast cwa. with
weak flow and little change in airmass will have fog potential
returning overnight as well.

&&

.long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 220 pm edt mon jun 17 2019

more intense frontal wave ejecting out of the plains on wednesday
will bring widespread rain to the area wed night/thursday and
with pw values in excess of 1.5 inches will have potential for
heavy rain. brief period of dry weather possible in the wake of
this system thursday night into friday morning with weak surface
ridging and modest mid-level height rises. surface boundary
continues to meander over the region and subsequent impulses
ejecting out of the plains will keep precip chances off and on
throughout remainder of the long term period.

&&

.aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z tuesday night)
issued at 1238 am edt tue jun 18 2019

the stagnant scenario will persist overnight and should follow
the pattern the past 2 nights with descending ceilings and
lowering visibilities north of a warm front over northern indiana
as plenty of moisture persists over the area with a very light
wind field. high resolution guidance including the hrrr has not
been doing well with this pattern the past couple of night, so
favor persistence similar to the past 2 night. conditions will
become low ifr overnight, with the chance for dense fog again.
kept the integrity of the ongoing tafs with these very low
conditions followed by improvement to vfr hopefully early this
afternoon.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...none.
&&

$$

update...marsili
synopsis...marsili/skipper
short term...jal
long term...jal
aviation...skipper


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