765
fxus63 kiwx 051201
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
701 am est thu nov 5 2026
.key messages...
- patchy drizzle and showers at times, especially this
afternoon. not as warm with highs only in the 50s.
- lake effect rain tonight through friday, tapering off
saturday morning.
- seasonably cold this weekend with highs in the 50s. cold
sunday morning with lows near freezing.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 203 am est thu nov 5 2026
a 996mb low swirls over the up this morning (bringing much needed
rain to a drought-striken area), with a secondary shortwave trough
aloft digging into extreme eastern iowa. this has spawned a fairly
widespread area of rain and drizzle upstream. this feature is
still digging south-southeast this hour but is expected to lift
northeast this afternoon. as it does so, scattered showers will
move through for the afternoon. remaining somewhat breezy once
more with a modest pressure gradient still in play. temperatures
only in the 50s today with only modest cold air advection noted
aloft due to boundary- parallel flow. however, a strong push of
caa rushes in this evening/tonight as the primary trough axis
(digging in through minnesota this morning) sweeps through. this
caa and lift promotes widespread showers followed by lake
effect rain showers. if you`re a snow lover, this is truly a
waste of what would otherwise be an impressive lake effect snow
set up. high resolution cams suggest qpf through the event
of 0.30-0.50". equilibrium levels crest at nearly 9,000 ft,
indicative of excellent lake induced lift. a single band of
rain is anticipated late thursday night through friday night
that follows the eastern shore and wavers over la porte and
western st. joseph (in) counties. lake effect comes to and end
saturday morning as equilibrium levels fall in response to
rising heights aloft with the parent trough moving off.
compared to recent temperatures, very cold early sunday morning in
the wake of this system as skies clear and high pressure descends
over the great lakes. lows will be near freezing which is just shy
of normal: 35 degrees. over the course of next week, a classic sine
wave pattern takes shape at 500mb with a towering central us
ridge bookended by troughs. we`ll be on the edge of seasonably
cool northwest flow. if northwest flow wins out, we could see
episodes of light rain (though pacific moisture transport is
poor). alternatively, mild and dry conditions could prevail if
the ridge to our west shifts east late in the week.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 652 am est thu nov 5 2026
in the wake of the cold front passage yesterday we will see
some drier air begin to push into the region by late morning
and early afternoon which will allow for some improvement to
cigs but look to remain mvfr ahead of the next disturbance that
moves through from the northwest and spread southeast with
accompanying rain showers later tonight after 20z thu. rain
showers may drop vsbys to around 4 sm with the heaviest showers.
westerly winds will back to more northerly through the taf
period with gusts around 20kts expected.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est friday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...brown
aviation...andersen