046
fxus63 kiwx 041709
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
109 pm edt sat apr 4 2026
.key messages...
- rain and storms are expected across the area today with a cold
front pushing eastward which will allow for a decrease in
precipitation to occur from the west to the east through the
rest of today. heavy to moderate rain is still possible west
of i-69 where a flood watch remains in effect.
- severe storms capable of damaging straight-line winds are
possible east of i-69 later this afternoon and into the early
evening.
- cooler and drier weather returns sunday-wednesday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 1222 pm edt sat apr 4 2026
with the warm front (quasi-stationary boundary) slowly pushing
northward into central mi and northern oh/lake erie we have
seen some clearing taking place mainly south and east of i-69
where temperatures have been allowed to shoot up into the 70s
meanwhile back within the cloud shield associated with the
previously mentioned boundary and a cold front associated with
an occluding surface low pressure system currently centered over
central mn and moving slowly eastward have been cooler. the
western and northern portions of the area with the cloud cover
have only seen temperatures getting into the lower 60s this
afternoon. mesoscale guidance also puts the better instability
and shear values east of i-69 and the higher values to our
northeast. ml cape expected to be 1000 j/kg or less and the
surface bulk shear values around 40 to 50 kts. the fairly uni-
directional shear values aloft hint at the main threat being
strong straight line winds. of course there is some weak
helicity especially to our northeast and closer to the
warm/stationary boundary where a few quick tornado spin ups
would be possible. the best timing still looks to be after 1 pm
through around 7 pm edt and most of the activity looks to move
eastward out of the cwa after that period.
with the cold front pushing through the area tonight we will see
a cooler and drier airmass push in for the easter sunday and
into the middle of the week. highs for easter and through
wednesday will be much cooler only getting into the mid 40s to
lower 50s for sunday and monday and a touch cooler on tuesday
with highs only in the 40s across the area. a few weak
disturbances will ripple through the region within the northwest
flow aloft with a slight chance of showers returning on late
sunday night into monday morning with the best chances north of
us-30. a few snow showers could mix in with the rain for our far
northern portions of the cwa in southern mi but impacts not
expected at this time. low temperatures on monday morning will
range from the lower 30s to our northeastern locations and in
the upper 30s for the southwestern parts of the cwa. we will be
watching carefully the cold low temperatures on tuesday morning
with clearing skies allowing for better radiational cooling lows
on tuesday morning will get down into the low to upper 20s with
again the colder temperatures in our north and east. would not
be a bad idea to cover any frost susceptible plants with the dip
in temperatures.
wednesday we start to see ridging over the middle of the conus
push eastward into the region and bring a warming trend into the
weekend with highs by wednesday returning into the 60s and by
thursday through saturday getting warmer into the mid 60s to low
70s into the weekend. there is the expectation that we may see
periods of showers and even a few thunderstorms through the
remainder of the period with a trough settling in just to the
north of the area. thinking the afternoon periods would be when
the chances of the showers/t-storms would be higher. will have
to see how the synoptic pattern plays out here in the coming
days.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 645 am edt sat apr 4 2026
predominantly mvfr to ifr conditions at the terminals this
period. periods of lifr conditions are ongoing (bkn003-bkn004)
at kfwa this morning with easterly flow persisting ahead of the
warm front. southerly flow is just to the south of the terminal,
so expect the lower ceilings to lift between 12z-14z. a few
scattered showers are developing around kfwa, but don`t expect
thunderstorms until later in the morning/early afternoon with
the cold front. for now have conditions improving to mvfr in
terms of ceilings, and drops to ifr visibilities with heavier
rain/storms this afternoon. clearing to vfr by late evening.
otherwise at ksbn the cold front is approaching (near klot), and
will continue eastward through early afternoon. widespread rain
and scattered thunderstorms are ongoing, with ifr
ceilings/visibilities at times. guidance suggests improvement to
mvfr (possibly vfr) towards late afternoon/early evening.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch until 5 pm edt /4 pm cdt/ this afternoon for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...none.
mi...flood watch until 5 pm edt this afternoon for miz078>080-177-
277.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm edt sunday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...andersen
aviation...mcd