350
fxus63 kiwx 291805
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
205 pm edt sun mar 29 2026
.key messages...
- warming trend continues into monday and tuesday.
- shower and thunderstorm chances return monday night through
early wednesday. highest chances, including an opportunity
for strong to severe storms, will be late tuesday afternoon
into tuesday evening (70-90%).
- cooler midweek with additional opportunties for rain thursday
through next weekend.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 205 pm edt sun mar 29 2026
southerly winds will continue to usher in warmer, and eventually
more moist air into early next week on the western periphery of a
broad eastern conus surface high. a warm front and theta-e ridge
lifts in monday night into early tuesday morning morning, while in
the mid levels several small scale perturbations track east into the
lower great lakes. whether this slug of moisture will be enough to
overcome a capping inversion at the base of an eml near the warm
front remains uncertain, thus have retained chance pops (20-50%,
highest north) for scattered convection during this time. the
presence of 35-45 knots of effective shear and steep mid level lapse
rates could pose a hail and gusty wind threat if thunderstorms
develop.
warm sector likely becomes firmly established for a time on tuesday
as a stronger shortwave tracking east along the us/canada border
induces a weak sfc frontal wave over the central/northern great
lakes. the system cold front then slowly drops through the area from
north to south late tuesday afternoon into tuesday night with
showers and thunderstorms expected along it or any pre-frontal
features. additional moisture/lift with any small scale
impulses, frontal forcing, and what could be up to 1500 j/kg of
mlcape will provide a conductive environment for showers and
storms during this time. could also see another window for a few
strong to severe storms late tuesday afternoon into tuesday
evening given the progged instability and 35-45 knots of deep
layer shear.
ensembles generally favor cooler temps into wednesday as the frontal
boundary settles off the south. the pattern thereafter looks
periodically wet as several low pressure systems take aim on the
midwest.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 139 pm edt sun mar 29 2026
mainly vfr conditions expected through this taf period. however,
winds will be the main impact with periods of gusty southerly
winds this afternoon and again after 12z mon especially for kfwa
with gusts up to 25 kts expected. llws to around 40 knots after
06z tonight. cigs will lower to around 5000 feet after 12z for
kfwa and 16z for ksbn.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...andersen