191
fxus63 kiwx 121743
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
143 pm edt thu mar 12 2026
.key messages...
- high wind warning on friday for gusts up to 60 mph.
- a strong storm system will bring rain and thunderstorms late
sunday into sunday night, followed by strong winds and snow on
monday. snow accumulations/impacts possible, mainly in
northwest in and southwest mi.
- temperatures mid 60s to near 70 on sunday will crash into the 20s
by monday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 143 pm edt thu mar 12 2026
several powerhouse ~170 kt upper jets emanating from the north
pacific will drive a couple strong storm systems through the region
through early next week. strong left exit upper forcing within the
nose of the first jetlet will force a compact/vigorous shortwave,
and associated sub-990 mb clipper, east through northern mi on
friday. an impressive wind field will accompany this powerful low
later tonight into friday with frequent advisory level gusts (45-55
mph) anticipated area-wide. whether a few warning level gusts up to
60 mph can be achieved is the main point of contention for a wind
advisory versus high wind warning. initially from the southwest
a ~70 kt 850 mb jet passes through from west to east later
tonight into friday morning. this largely produces advisory
level gusts given the stability and more limited momentum
transfer in these early morning llj/waa regimes. however, the
tail end of this does look to be into areas along/east of i-69
by late morning/early afternoon when more effective diurnal
mixing could produce 50 kt plus gusts. deepest mixing with less
cloud cover and a more westerly component then into afternoon
will keep the high winds going with 925 mb winds 45-50 kts.
forecast soundings, particularly the gfs, support a high wind
warning, while probabilistic data from the href and nbm are more
in line with a high end advisory. splitting hairs really with
true warning level gradient wind events rare in these parts.
with all that said, per collaboration with surrounding offices,
and the rather impressive soundings and momentum transfer progs,
did opt for a high wind warning.
the next dynamic upper jet digs much more meridionally forcing a
digging trough into the central us sunday, with eventually negative
tilt liftout through the ohio valley and great lakes sunday night
into monday. this will support a rapid cyclogenetic response with
sfc low track northeast from mo/western il sunday pm to near lake
huron by monday. leading warn advection wing may clip areas mainly
near and north of the mi stateline with a brief period of snow
(little to no accums) saturday night north of the system warm front.
warm sector then builds in during the day on sunday with breezy/warm
condition before the deepening low and cold front swings through
with rain/wind and chances for thunderstorms late sunday into sunday
night. somewhat lacking low level moisture return and lapse rates
will hopefully limit the threat for severe storms, though the degree
of forcing/flow and potential for at least some weak instability
makes this something to monitor going forward. sharply
colder/blustery air will wrap in later sunday night into monday with
snow showers, especially in nw in and sw mi where some lake
enhancement may allow for accumulations/impacts. track and intensity
differences obviously linger at this forecast range in model land
which will determine how windy/snowy conditions will be on the
backside of this deep cyclone.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1228 pm edt thu mar 12 2026
vfr with westerly winds potentially gusting up to near 20 knots
at times this afternoon. winds diminish briefly this evening
before ramping up significantly later tonight into friday as a
vigorous clipper system tracks east through northern michigan.
southwest winds in the morning will veer more westerly during
the day friday with frequent gusts in excess of 40 knots
anticipated. leading corridor of lift will bring some mid level
cloud cover and chances (30-50%) for a mixture of light
rain/snow to mainly ksbn otherwise later tonight.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...high wind warning from 5 am edt /4 am cdt/ to 8 pm edt /7 pm
cdt/ friday for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...high wind warning from 5 am to 8 pm edt friday for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...high wind warning from 5 am to 8 pm edt friday for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...gale warning from 11 pm this evening to 5 am edt friday for
lmz043-046.
gale warning from 5 pm to 11 pm edt friday for lmz043-046.
storm warning from 5 am to 5 pm edt friday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel