971
fxus63 kiwx 311122
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
622 am est wed dec 31 2025
.key messages...
- snow developing today, then diminishing tonight. snow totals
of 1 to 4 inches expected by late tonight.
- mainly dry thursday through tuesday with little if any rain or snow
expected. weather impacts should be few if any.
- highs next week monday through wednesday should become milder
by the middle of the week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 335 am est wed dec 31 2025
an impulse moving southeast in very strong flow aloft will be
able to generate up to 4 inches of light snow in about a 12-hour
window from noon to midnight tonight. forecast soundings with
the upper level support favor all snow; however, a freezing
drizzle environment exists in the low levels with temperatures
warmer than -10c. snow ratios will be increasing with much
colder air this evening. snow ratio values by late tonight will
likely be near 20:1, so even light precipitation amounts will be
efficient in producing a dry type of snow that will easily blow
around with gusty winds. given the latest soundings and surface
observations, freezing drizzle or possibly light freezing rain
may precede the snow.
after tonight, conditions should be dry through sunday.
temperatures should be near to below normal with the upper
level flow mainly from the northwest. however, milder air should
begin to return next week a a 500 mb negative height anomaly
persists off the north american coast. arctic air should be at
least temporarily shut off from the forecast area. the
downstream teleconnections are very strong and will allow mild
air to build east of the rockies. the latest gfs 850 temperature
anomaly indicated a +20c anomaly next week from the southern
plains into the northern plains. this mild air should be able to
work its way east and bring mild air to the forecast area. the
model blend appears to be much too cold tuesday and especially
wednesday. raised wednesday highs about 3f above the blend for
now. will wait to see how subsequent runs handle the mass/upper
level height fields in this pattern before raising temperatures
any higher.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 622 am est wed dec 31 2025
low cloudiness continues this morning and into the first part of the
afternoon providing mvfr flight conditions and times of ifr as well.
just as quickly as the afternoon-overnight snow last night ended, a
second, much more vigorous shortwave passes by much more north of
the area than the first wave, but it actually causes more snow to
fall. mvfr cigs look to continue, but ifr and perhaps lifr visby
looks to be the main hazardous condition to target.
winds slowly veer more northerly from westerly over the taf period
staying above 10 kts sustained and having times of gusts 20 to 25
kts, especially this afternoon and evening.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est thursday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...skipper
aviation...roller