383
fxus63 kiwx 112334
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
734 pm edt sat apr 11 2026
.key messages...
- 20% to 40% chance of showers tonight along the southern
michigan state line.
- very warm and breezy on sunday. southwesterly wind gusts of 30
mph and highs well into the 70s.
- increasing chance of rain sunday evening (40% chance) through
monday morning (60% chance) but remaining warm.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 149 pm edt sat apr 11 2026
high pressure today gives way to an incoming disturbance currently
over northern missouri. this feature lifts northeast tonight atop a
strong southeast us upper-level ridge resulting in a 20% to 40%
chance of showers tonight along the southern mi border. a special
sounding from the students at valparaiso university late this
morning revealed a strong subsidence inversion and plenty of dry
air; pwat of 0.45". upstream dew points in the mid-40s are better
than our local dew point this hour, thus, improved moisture
advection and forcing will be needed prior to rain reaching the
ground.
warm and breezy sunday, with southwesterly wind gusts of 30
mph, as the pressure gradient tightens against surface high
pressure off the atlantic coast. rain chances increase in the
evening from west to east as another shortwave moves through.
this activity, lingering into monday morning, does not appear to
pose a severe weather risk owing to an absence of instability.
instability improves monday night, with the best colocation of
severe weather ingredients noted over southeast wi. upstream
activity for any severe storms that drift east.
tuesday evening continues to be the primary period of interest for
severe storms. a shortwave trough over the central plains and
associated surface low deepen while an elongated front drapes
across our area. instability in excess of 1,500 j/kg locally along
with 45 knots of shear are favorable indicators that any storms
that fire over illinois can track east into our area. boundary-
parallel flow raises the risk of training thunderstorms producing
heavy rainfall as well.
wet weather lingers into wednesday and thursday until the parent
trough finally shifts east. a strong upper-level ridge persists over
the southeast us keeping temperatures very warm.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 730 pm edt sat apr 11 2026
plenty of mid level clouds overnight keep fog at bay and cigs are
likely high enough to stay in vfr through the period. while some
spotty rain is possible at sbn overnight, it`s not impactful enough
to include in tafs.
southeast winds become more southerly late tonight and early sunday
with southwest winds more likely by the afternoon. this setup of a
warm front moving through overnight often yields llws. however, the
late arrival of a llj with a shortwave passing by to the northwest,
restricts impactful llws until after 12z and likely only at sbn.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 8 am sunday to 8 am edt monday for
lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...brown
aviation...roller