098
fxus63 kiwx 082334
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
634 pm est sun nov 8 2026
.key messages...
- remaining dry with normal to above normal temperatures through
tuesday.
- trending cooler late wednesday through friday with chances for
mainly rain, late wednesday afternoon into thursday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 1246 pm est sun nov 8 2026
the pattern across the conus starts with a trough across the east
and ridge in the southwest that waves are moving eastward overtop
of. one such trough vacated the area this morning bringing
subsidence into monday. a brief period of warm advection later
monday into monday night is overtaken by a brief period cold
advection as another wave passes by to our north in the northwest
flow. not much surface cooling occurs as the cold front washes out
across the area and it`s a dry frontal passage.
this series of waves has been able to affect the ridge in the west
so that by the time the next wave overtops it, it`s able to dive
farther southward. at the same time, an upper low in eastern canada
will help to push some cold air in behind this wave so that it`ll
likely be rain at the start here later wednesday. then, we`ll have
to watch for the timing of the cold air arrival and if there`s going
to be some low level moisture to tap into. lake effect precipitation
could change to snow thursday night into friday as the cold air
makes it to the surface. 850 mb temperatures get to -4 to -8c
thursday night, which is right around what`s needed to produce lake
effect snow. trajectories will also matter for where the snow bands
end up. that will be out of the area by sunday night or monday as
surface high pressure noses in. those 850 mb temps don`t rise above
freezing until we get to next week. gfs soundings are normally dry
that far out so it`ll be interesting to see how the short range
guidance handles it and this will help to address whether snow is
heavy enough to overcome antecedant warm air. the nbm has about a 20-
30 percent chance of measureable (>0.1") of snow late thu night-fri
am. the nbm has high temperatures rebounding back into the 40s at
least by the weekend and potentially as early as friday meaning the
snow should disappear quickly especially if that dry air remains in
atmospheric column. wind gusts also increase to 25 to 40 mph on
thursday with 25 to 30 mph gusts still possible friday and saturday.
dry air takes over into the first half of next week after the
cool/wetter air moves eastward as mid level ridging/surface high
pressure slide southeastward.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 634 pm est sun nov 8 2026
cool, cyclonic flow over the northern great lakes is supporting
some lake effect clouds over michigan. there is a chance that
some of these clouds could spread southward overnight as low
level flow trajectories veer slightly. however, dry air is a
significant factor this far south and will likely keep clouds
scattered/vfr. wnw winds remain light and back once again by
monday afternoon.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 9 am est monday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...roller
aviation...agd