366
fxus63 kiwx 060206
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
906 pm est thu nov 5 2026
.key messages...
- areas of drizzle and light rain showers to continue to expand
southeast overnight. rain showers should become focused mainly
downwind of lake michigan by friday morning.
- seasonably cold this weekend with highs in the 50s. cold
sunday morning with lows near freezing.
&&
.update...
issued at 900 pm est thu nov 5 2026
a positively tilted upper trough ejecting east from the mid ms
valley has allowed for a slowly sinking low level fgen axis to
reach the southern great lakes this evening. near term rap
progs depict a preference to two separate areas of low level
frontogenesis forcing, one progressing southeast across the
local area through 06z, and a second axis downstream of northern
great lakes upper trough. low level convergence axis associated
with lead vort max has allowed for some increase in moisture
depths past few hours across west central indiana where drizzly
precip types have trended over to some light rain. by late
tonight into friday am, deepening mixed layer depths should
allow for some lake enhanced/lake effect rain showers to become
dominant downwind of lake michigan. only tweak to grids was to
slightly nudge up pops and go with a slightly faster timing in
southeast expansion of pops following this fgen forcing. it is
possible precip amounts may eventually need to be increased a
bit for the northwest where lake enhancement could result in
narrow corridor of 0.25"+ inch amounts.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 127 pm est thu nov 5 2026
cold front is located from nw lower mi to nw illinois with
coldest air lagging somewhat behind. area of weak lift ahead of
the front was allowing for some patchy drizzle or very light
showers. questions remain as to timing of the front and arrival
of colder temps and upper level/sfc troughs that will aid in
lake effect development. models vary anywhere from 00z fri to 3z
fri for fropa in the nw and taking several hours to work
across. greatest pops should focus either side of the front
where forcing is strongest with a return to lesser coverage
(possibly brief end) to showers. have tried to capture in pops
as best as possible. the larger challenge comes with transition
from a lake enhanced setup to pure lake effect. original signals
were closer to 12z fri, but signs seem to suggest this could be
delayed by at least a few hours as we await some of the
stronger troughs. still appears to be a window for 1 or 2 single
bands at the peak of the event friday afternoon. have also made
some changes with regards to timing and position, but
confidence is on the lower side on exact evolution. precip will
be in the form of rain, and as mentioned by the mid forecaster
some pretty stout instability could materialize resulting in
localized heavier rain amounts and maybe a bit of graupel if
sufficient height can be obtained. away from the lake, dry
conditions should settle in several hours behind the front.
can`t rule out some sprinkles or light showers with the passage
of each trough, but moisture will be more limited. temperatures
will be noticeably cooler with highs in the 50s and lows in the
30s heading into the weekend.
no changes in the latter period as high pressure will dominate
into mid week. pattern suggests we could be on the edge of a
more active flow with shower chances mid to late week.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 648 pm est thu nov 5 2026
a pair of upper level short waves will be tracking across the
southern great lakes region and ohio valley through friday. the
first of these perturbations is approaching from the mid ms rvr
valley, with water vapor imagery showing a nice depiction of
stronger upper vort lobe across lake superior/up of michigan.
associated sfc cold front is dropping south across southern lake
michigan this evening. wind shift with frontal passage should
occur at ksbn around 03z and at kfwa closer to the 07z-08z
period. low level fgen forcing with this front will result in an
increased chance of light rain showers at ksbn after 01z or 02z.
there could be a lull in rain chances after 05z as initial wave
shifts east, but increasingly favorable lake effect/enhanced
rain shower profiles will become established overnight as the
next great lakes vort drops south. under this cold advection,
difficult to see much possibility for improvement from 1500-2000
ft cigs with a very low probability of brief ifr cigs at ksbn
during main synoptic forcing period late this evening. lake
effect rain showers will continue to be possible at ksbn friday,
with parameters for lake effect rain most favorable through 18z.
deepening mixed layer behind the front could allow some gusts to
around 20 knots on friday with cigs expected to rise above 2k
feet friday afternoon.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est saturday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
update...marsili
discussion...fisher
aviation...marsili