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fxus63 kiwx 261837
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
237 pm edt sun apr 26 2026
.key messages...
- mild and breezy monday with highs near 80 degrees. scattered rain
and non-severe storms could occur around midday and into the
afternoon.
- severe weather is possible with a second round of storms later monday,
mainly between 8 pm edt monday to 2 am edt tuesday west of in
15. damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will be the main
threats.
- heavy rainfall monday night may lead to isolated instances of
areal flooding and minor rises on area rivers.
- cooler air is ahead next week to begin may! highs only in the
50s and 60s and lows as cold as the mid 30s will be possible
by the middle to end of next week. near freezing temperatures
at night may damage early season crops and plants!
&&
.discussion...
issued at 233 pm edt sun apr 26 2026
there is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather across much
of northwest and north-central indiana on monday, although
uncertainty remains. a warm front is expected to lift northward
through our area monday afternoon, with breezy southerly winds and
waa boosting highs to at least the low to mid 70s. southerly low
level moisture return from the gulf will also boost dewpoints into
the low 60s monday evening. we will be closely monitoring remnant
convection that comes out of the missouri/iowa/illinois overnight
and tomorrow morning, as where this tracks and how much it holds
together will influence the environment over our area on monday.
most hi-res model guidance brings in a midday/early afternoon round
of scattered showers and storms to our forecast area leftover from
the remnant missouri/illinois mcs to our west. given that
instability will be near zero, any storms associated with round 1
should be non-severe. this convection may disrupt the peak heating
hours and how much (if any) airmass recovery occurs monday afternoon
and evening. unfortunately, hi-res model guidance diverges a lot on
a solution for on what happens after round 1. additional development
of storms monday evening will be conditional on what occurs with
round 1. some models still bring in a potent line of strong to
severe storms in for round 2 monday evening and others depict
that round 1 completely depletes our forecast area of any severe
potential later on in the day. spc has maintained the slight
risk for severe weather mainly west of in 15 for our area, which
i do think is warranted. this is a low confidence but high
ceiling event, especially for our far western counties. even if
midday convection does stabilize our environment somewhat,
shear and helicity remain impressive monday evening. forecast
soundings point towards potential for a high shear, low cape
setup. veering wind profiles monday night yield impressive
looking hodographs, especially west of us 31. while 40-50 kts of
bulk shear is often sufficient for severe weather, some hi-res
model guidance has 70+ kts of bulk shear monday evening when the
llj ramps up. breezy southerly winds at the surface and lots of
vertical wind shear will also allow for impressive 0-1 srh
values of up to 500 m2/s2! despite a loss of instability after
sunset (only 500 j/kg sbcape), there does appear to be decent
potential for severe weather given the high magnitudes of shear
and helicity that could be present west of us 31. the main
threats will be damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes,
with a lesser threat for hail due to waning instability. there
is also potential for heavy rain and efficient rainfall rates
over 2"/hr. with pwats near 1.50" (which is around the 99th
percentile climatology for april 27th), ample low level
moisture, and forecast sounding depicting a deep, warm cloud
layer, flooding will be possible late in the day on monday into
monday night. total qpf across our forecast area is expected to
be between 0.50" to 1.50" by early tuesday morning. heavy
rainfall may lead to isolated instances of areal flooding and
minor rises on area rivers.
an unseasonably cool airmass will filter into the great lakes region
by the middle to end of next week as an upper level low develops
over the northeast. with dominant northerly flow, the climate
prediction center has high probabilities (50-70%) for cooler
than normal temperatures by the end of april into early may.
highs only in the 50s and 60s and lows as cold as the mid 30s
will be possible by the middle to end of next week. the growing
season has already begun for our forecast area as of mid-april.
near freezing temperatures at night may damage early season
crops and plants! frost/freeze headlines may be needed,
especially thursday and friday nights.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 136 pm edt sun apr 26 2026
mid level ridging remains overhead as surface high pressure ejects
eastward overnight into monday. this morning`s mvfr ceilings
scattered out midday into the early afternoon allowing a return to
vfr conditions. east winds with sustained winds around 10 kts remain
across the area today, weakening to just below 10 kts around sunrise
monday morning. this scenario of east winds often brings in some
sort of overnight flight condition impacts, including stratus or
fog, especially in the case of recently fallen rain, which has
occurred over the last couple of days. with those 10 kt sustained
winds, this would likely lean stratus if something does happen.
right now, models are devoid of those impacts, though, unless you
look at the sref, which does hint at some sort of combination of
fog/stratus monday morning. given the lack of confidence of this
occurring, will leave this chance out of these tafs.
otherwise, thunderstorms are also forecast to reach the sbn area
towards the end of the taf period. the best chance for severe
weather is later monday into monday night, but we`ll have to see if
we can recover instability for stronger storms during that time. at
this point, will leave this chance out of the tafs.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...johnson
aviation...roller