669
fxus63 kiwx 091123
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
623 am est mon feb 9 2026
.key messages...
- quiet weather is expected this week with highs generally in
the 30s supporting a gradual melt of existing snowpack.
- the next chance of precipitation is not until late saturday
into sunday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 155 am est mon feb 9 2026
a welcome reprieve from active winter weather is still on schedule
for this week. persistent ne conus troughing will finally shift
eastward a bit, allowing large western conus ridge to fold over the
great lakes. strong waa is expected for a time later today into
early tue that may push temps to near 40f (though deep snowpack and
ample mid/upper clouds will temper that warm air quite a bit). the
pattern thereafter becomes one of split mid/upper level flow with
broad northern stream ridging over much of the country with a more
active southern stream staying largely south of our area. this split
flow pattern with some residual negative height anomalies over
quebec (and residual snowpack here locally) will keep temps a touch
on the cool side of climo, especially wed and thu with one more shot
of cool, northwest flow behind tuesday`s dry cold front. however, it
will not be as cold as the past few weeks and more importantly,
there are few, if any, chances for snow. south bend has recorded
snow in 25 of the last 30 days while fort wayne has recorded snow in
22 of the last 30 days, which hasn`t happened since the very busy
winter of 2013-2014. a weak shortwave pushes into the area thu night
with our next (very low) chance for snow but current indications are
for a weak wave that gets sheared out and encounters an increasingly
dry/stable environment over our region. maintained low nbm pop`s in
the far west but these may get removed entirely if trends continue
and even if it does snow, amounts will be very light. much better
chance for substantive precip with southern stream trough over the
weekend but still a lot of guidance members keeping this precip
south of our cwa and thermal profiles are warm enough that much of
it could be rain. will keep an eye on this period but obviously
still plenty of time to nail down the details. overall, a quiet week
with a slow melt of existing snowpack.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 619 am est mon feb 9 2026
vfr tafs through the period with a disturbance passing north
today, followed by a dry cold front arriving late in this
period.
a narrow area of stratus continues to slowly seep south and
east now exiting the terminals. high clouds today with an
upper- level system passing through the upper midwest. veering
surface wind this afternoon and evening as great lakes high
pressure moves east and a low deepens across western ontario.
this low spreads a moisture-starved cold front through late,
along with a llws concern. the 925-mb jet ramps up noticeably
between 06z and 09z tuesday, perhaps as great as 60 knots per
some guidance.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...agd
aviation...brown