653
fxus63 kiwx 061811
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
111 pm est fri nov 6 2026
.key messages...
- scattered to numerous lake effect rain showers will continue
this afternoon then taper off into tonight, mainly for areas
west of interstate 69 in northern in and southwest mi.
- seasonably cool conditions continue into saturday night
before a slow warming trends commences, with highs in the 60s
by tuesday.
- cooler temperatures return for the second half of the week.
- no significant precipitation expected saturday through friday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 110 pm est fri nov 6 2026
well defined upper low centered near saginaw bay (lower mi) with
several weak disturbances/troughs rotating around the feature as it
drifts slowly ese reaching western ny by 12z sat. weakly convergent
flow along the eastern shores is keeping the main area of rain
showers from south haven to south bend. instability and favorable
fetch peak into mid afternoon with combination of lowering inversion
heights, departing low and core of coldest air shifting east should
lead to a downward trend into tonight. kept some lingering pops into
the overnight before ending. temperatures tonight will drop into the
low to mid 30s, coldest outside of any lake effect cloud cover.
low level waa will commence on saturday, but bulk of greatest
increase will occur in the afternoon, limiting impacts on afternoon
highs to the lower 50s. after one more cold night in the lower 30s,
high temps will begin to rebound a few degrees each day into tuesday
with a return to above normal levels (low to mid 60s) by tuesday.
a semi zonal upper flow will be interrupted by a northern stream
wave, with a front pushing into the area by wednesday. the trough
will deepen into the second half of the week with additional waves
move through the flow. the main impact appears to be a return to
near or somewhat below normal temperatures to end the work week.
some lake effect shower chances could arrive thu/fri, but overall
flow right now may favor portions of far nw indiana into ne
illinois.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1213 pm est fri nov 6 2026
northwesterly flow will continue to produce light lake effect
rain showers to areas downstream from lake michigan. therefore, keep
mvfr cigs through saturday morning for ksbn. with the lake
effect showers remaining west of kfwa did keep the forecast dry,
although mvfr ceilings are forecast late tonight/early saturday.
winds will increase this afternoon with gusts around 20 kts
possible, than decrease again to around 10 kts or less overnight.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est saturday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...fisher
aviation...cobb