747
fxus63 kiwx 250435
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1135 pm est sat jan 24 2026
.key messages...
- a winter storm warning and winter weather advisory is in
effect for various counties. snow begins tonight, lasting
through sunday. snow ends sunday night.
- in the warning area, snow greater than 6 inches is expected.
hazardous travel may persist into monday morning.
- lake effect snow develops monday morning.
-dangerous cold yet again tuesday morning with wind chills near
20 below zero.
&&
.update...
issued at 815 pm est sat jan 24 2026
development of southerly flow level flow cutting across strong
baroclinic zone across will continue to provide focus of some
low level and mid level lift through the night. some very dry
low levels had to be dislodged this evening, so this advective
forcing will take some time to generate measurable snow across
the far north/northeast portions of the area. across in/oh did
speed up timing of pops a bit given observational trends and
even a few reports of a tenth of an inch of snow already this
evening.
no big changes made at this time regarding forecast late tonight
into sunday, but will have to monitor evolution of the initial
upstream mid level trough that will be tracking across the
region through sunday afternoon. some latest guidance may be
trending a little sharper with this trough, and thus maintaining
some modest low/mid level baroclinicity for a slightly longer
time across ne in/nw ohio. a slightly sharper trough also
appears to hold some low level advective forcing in a bit longer
across southeast half of the forecast area. given a trend to
slightly stronger synoptic forcing signal in the 12z-21z
timeframe, some concern that warning level accums could nudge a
bit farther northwest into portions of the current advisory
area. confidence still not high to make a headline change at
this time however, with still some lower confidence regarding
exact snow ratios and the amplitude/timing of the initial mid
level trough. this also appears to be a steady type accumulation
over a rather extended period which may mitigate impact
somewhat. if any more pronounced banding can develop for a
short time, this potential appears to be maximized across the
warning area in far ne in/nw oh. did slightly nudge up snow
accums in the intermediate area between warning/advisory
segments, but otherwise no major changes planned at this time.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 224 pm est sat jan 24 2026
overall, no significant changes to the incoming winter storm.
a wintry weekend is underway or imminent for much of the us. low
pressure over the tx/la gulf coast slowly lifts north this evening
with a modest precipitation shield extending into the mid-
mississippi valley where arctic high pressure has a grip over the
midwest. this high pressure limits poleward moisture transport this
evening with its strong subsidence and bone-dry air mass (dew points
in the 10s-to-teens below-zero). forecast soundings do show
saturation occuring prior to midnight et for those along and south
of us 24 allowing for about 1-2" by daybreak sunday; armchair
meteorologists may scoff sunday morning about the lack of snow but
more is on the way.
our primary period of prolonged, steady snowfall is during the day
sunday and tapering off after sunset. this is when a second, more
potent low currently digging in over the baja of california lifts
northeast through the tennessee river valley. by this time, high
pressure will have shifted northeast allowing for improved moisture
profile locally, but still cannot rule out being "robbed" of some
moisture transport with such a large precipitation shield across the
s southeast us. the 12z suite of forecast guidance generally stayed
close to the existing forecast. there were some northward shifts in
cams (as well as the nam). balancing the dry air mass, subtle
northward shift of some guidance and reducing snow ratios a touch,
we`ve generally held course with this afternoon`s forecast package.
in coordination with neighboring offices, we did reduce the
inherited 20:1 snow ratios (now capped at (17:1); likely over-
boosted by the very cold air mass. indeed, the 15k ft deep dendritic
growth zone is impressive, but overall forcing in the column is
modest as revealed by time-height cross sections. nonetheless, a
fluffy snow and a brief period 1" per hour rates. these rates are
most likely around sunrise sunday morning as an area of mid-level
frontogenesis passes overhead. wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph will
result in areas of blowing and drifting snow, with easterly wind at
the start of the evening "backing" (counter-clockwise) to become
westerly by the snow`s end.
a single band of lake effect develops sunday night as this surface
low becomes centered off the new england coast. the band tracks from
the western lake michigan shore to the east which will limit
residence time but 1" per hour rates are expected as the band swings
through. depending on its residence time for the monday morning
commute, additional winter weather headlines may be needed for
michiana.
dangerous cold returns monday night (did it ever really leave?) with
-22c noted at 850 mb, good for apparent temperatures tuesday
morning near 20-below zero. temperatures attempt to moderate
after but are limited by an incoming clipper midweek. thus,
cold with lake effect snow is in store for the week ahead.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1135 pm est sat jan 24 2026
steady light snow with primarily ifr visbys will persist early
this morning in response to broad warm/moist advection. the
main upper wave lifts through during the day on sunday which
should bring moderate to briefly heavier snow to mainly kfwa
with lifr conditions. northeast winds near 10 knots becoming
more northerly later today otherwise.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 1 am est /midnight cst/ monday
for inz005>008-012>015-020-103-104-116-203-204-216.
winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for inz009-017-018-
022>027-032>034.
oh...winter storm warning until 1 am est monday for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...winter weather advisory until 1 am est monday for miz078>081-
177-277.
marine...none.
&&
$$
update...marsili
discussion...brown
aviation...steinwedel