115
fxus63 kiwx 290119
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
919 pm edt tue apr 28 2026
.key messages...
- cooler wednesday through saturday with highs in the 50s to
around 60 degrees.
- frost likely at times wednesday night through saturday night.
the highest potential for freezing conditions will be friday
night into saturday morning.
- light rain possible sunday night through tuesday. additional
flooding from this rain not expected.
&&
.update...
issued at 915 pm edt tue apr 28 2026
upstream water vapor imagery this evening depicts a couple of
short waves of interest heading into late tonight/wednesday.
these disturbances will shift from corn belt to the southern
great lakes by daybreak as a mid/upper jet streak cutting
through base of the upper trough induces some weak cyclogenesis
across the ohio valley. this evolution will allow a low level
trough axis and accompanying low level fgen axis to reach the
i-69 corridor late tonight into early wednesday morning. likely
pops were maintained across south/southeast portions of the area
following this forcing and where some slightly better low level
moisture should exist. a secondary maximum in rain shower
coverage is possible for a brief time across northwest indiana
late tonight as the lead ia short wave allows a stronger mid
level front/mid level fgen axis to push across the southern
great lakes. moisture will be more limited with this feature,
but northwest portions of the forecast area should be more
favorable aligned with stronger upper level vort advection. some
upward adjustment to pops may be needed for a brief time in the
northwest, but rainfall amounts will be quite light. a lull in
rain showers is expected mid/late morning wednesday with
possibility of some isolated/scattered shower redevelopment on
wednesday afternoon given large scale cyclonic flow and very
weak sfc based instability.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 149 pm edt tue apr 28 2026
a series of mid & upper-level disturbances will bring one more
chance for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the region
from late tonight through wednesday. models are in good agreement
with most areas seeing at least measurable precipitation, although
the best chance (>50%) of at least 0.25 inch appears to be focused
mainly along/south of us-24 per the latest href suite. not expecting
this additional rainfall to result in any increase to ongoing hydro
concerns. otherwise, precipitation chances appear to be fairly low
through the remainder of the week, though a light shower or two may
be possible at times with a few passing waves if sufficient moisture
is present. general troughiness aloft will keep temperatures on the
cooler side for some time, with a threat for frost over the next few
days starting wednesday night. the best chance for a possible freeze
currently looks to be friday night into saturday morning, but
overall confidence in a hard freeze is low at this time.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 729 pm edt tue apr 28 2026
an overall relatively low impact aviation weather period with
main focuses on rain chances late tonight into wednesday am
along with potential of some mvfr cigs.
northern indiana is positioned in somewhat of a col
region between pressure systems tonight. an upstream mid/upper
level short wave will provide large scale forcing for ascent
across the southern great lakes late tonight while a southward
displaced polar jet noses into mid ms valley. this will induce
some weak cyclogenesis across the ohio river valley overnight
into wed am. the induced low level flow from weak cyclogenesis
will allow for some enhancement to low-mid level frontogenesis
forcing overnight into wednesday morning. kfwa should be a bit
southward displaced from stronger upper forcing across the
southern great lakes but better aligned with better moisture and
low level frontogenesis while ksbn should have more marginal
low level moisture but be positioned in closer proximity to a
stronger mid level frontogenesis axis and vorticity advection
from upstream trough. will continue to carry prob30/tempo
mentions for showers later tonight into early wednesday. cannot
completely discount an isolated rumble of thunder given very
weak elevated instability, but not enough confidence in
occurrence/coverage to warrant taf mention at this time. will
continue with mention of mvfr cigs above 2k feet late tonight
into wed am before any lingering mvfr cigs likely improve to vfr
in the afternoon as drier low level air advects into the
region.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
update...marsili
discussion...hammer
aviation...marsili