408
fxus63 kiwx 152338
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
638 pm est sun feb 15 2026
.key messages...
- fog redevelopment tonight, mainly south of highway 30.
- very mild for this time of year for this upcoming week.
- record or near record highs wednesday - well into the 60s.
- antecedently dry conditions to continue; little runoff from
snow melt, very low chances for river flooding through friday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 330 pm est sun feb 15 2026
atmospheric signals are mounting for close to an unprecedented
mild pattern for the middle of february for this upcoming week.
the gfs supports height anomalies reaching +160 meters. several
surges of energy will dive on the back side of an upper level
through wednesday. these impulses will tend to slow and amplify
the approaching lead trof, subsequently amplifying the downstream
ridge over the east conus. highs in the mid to upper 60s by
wednesday will resemble the normal highs for may 1st.
as for high temperatures, unseasonably warm weather will prevail
as forecast 850 mb temperatures rise to +10c by wednesday.
record highs appear to be in play as surface temperatures should
be able to reach the mid and upper 60s. the record for ft wayne
wednesday is 66f. cooler weather will eventually follow as
colder air is able to move southeast and reach the area.
the 12z gfs maintains the antecedently dry pattern with less
than 0.25" of rain for the next 10 days. left a small chance for
low-topped thunderstorms in a small window early wednesday.
strong gusty winds are possible in the mid to highs shear but
low cape environment. at this time, it appears chances for both
flooding and severe weather are remote this upcoming week.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 638 pm est sun feb 15 2026
clear skies, light winds, and sufficient near-surface moisture
due to melting snow will likely lead to fog development tonight,
as suggested by most of the latest guidance. however, confidence
in widespread, dense fog is not high due to increasing surface
winds and highs clouds closer to 12z. maintained a conservative
forecast for now with the best chances for dense fog at kfwa. it
is possible that visibilities drop lower faster and will continue
to monitor obs closely through the late evening. otherwise, vfr
expected after 16z mon as sw winds increase.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...skipper
aviation...agd