986
fxus63 kiwx 211104
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
704 am edt tue jul 21 2026
.key messages...
- there is a general 30-50% chance of showers with a few
thunderstorms today especially south of us-30 and east of i-69.
confidence in severe weather occurring is low, but cannot
completely rule out instances of isolated damaging wind gusts
or heavy rain.
- high waves and strong currents are expected at southeast lake
michigan beaches on tuesday through thursday morning. stay
dry when waves are high.
- dry, cooler and less humid conditions arrive later today and
persist into the weekend.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 300 am edt tue jul 21 2026
convection did not survive into our area last night and the main
energy slipped south from eastern ia into south-central il. as
of current radar imagery our area remains precipitation free.
there is an area of scattered showers moving eastward across
northern il which may slip in here along the cold front later
this morning but any strong convection looks fairly unlikely
across our area today due to the poor diurnal timing of the
boundary passage. still think an isolated strong to severe
storm or two may still be possible for our far southeastern
parts of the cwa (i.e. lima, oh area) but again with the poor
timing the surface instability will be low to non-existent when
the boundary pushes through those areas. effective bulk shear
values along the boundary will run from 40-50 kts which if
convection can initiate some organization could be achieved.
spc does have a small portion of our cwa under a slight risk for
severe storms and a bit larger area of marginal today. the
biggest threat from these storms would be damaging gusts and
heavy downpours. hazardous marine conditions for the near shore
and lake michigan beaches today through thursday morning with
the more gusty northerly flow.
also in the wake of the cold front we actually may see some
lake effect clouds and showers develop off of southern lake
michigan late tonight and into wednesday with the cooler air
aloft and warmer lake temperatures in place. lows on wednesday
morning will be in the 50s while parts of lake michigan surface
water temperatures are currently in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
not expecting much of accumulation from any of the showers but
will be enough to keep areas near the lake damp on wednesday.
high temperatures on wednesday through friday will mainly be in
the 70s with a northwesterly flow aloft in place. this may also
keep some smoke in the air with that trajectory. slightly warmer
this weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s as ridging over
the central conus starts to push a bit eastward into the region.
dry conditions also otherwise for the area at least through
saturday night. a weak shortwave could allow for some
showers/storms by sunday afternoon but moisture may be hard to
come by with the ridging pushing eastward and blocking any
southern moisture. will keep our eyes on that.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 646 am edt tue jul 21 2026
showers and thunderstorms did develop earlier this morning and
push into the area out ahead of the cold front. still anticipate
that we could see another batch of showers and storms mainly for
kfwa later this morning until 14z tue. confidence is lower on
strong to severe storms as this first batch of convection may
have worked the environment over quite a bit and will make for
less instability available. gusty southwesterly winds will
become more northerly in wake of cold front later today with
gusts around 20 kts.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement from this evening through thursday
morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through late wednesday night for
miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 1 am edt thursday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...andersen
aviation...andersen