447
fxus63 kiwx 312220
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
620 pm edt sat oct 31 2026
.key messages...
- a few light showers or sprinkles linger tonight into sunday, but
most areas will experience mainly dry weather.
- very warm on tuesday followed by increasing rain chances through
wednesday (60% chance).
- windy conditions are possible for a time on tuesday as south
winds becoming gusty in advance of a cold front.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 300 pm edt sat oct 31 2026
low coverage light rain/sprinkle potential will continue through the
remainder of the weekend but most areas will remain mainly dry.
an area of light rain/sprinkles has slowly migrated east-northeast
across northeast indiana into northwest ohio this afternoon and
these light rain showers appear to be tied to a zone of better
290-300k isentropic forcing. a weak easterly flow regime has
kept subcloud layer dry with most areas only experiencing a
trace to few hundredths of an inch. an exception to this was
early this morning across western indiana where bands of better
amounts were realized.
into this late afternoon/early evening, guidance is in general
agreement that the initial stronger isentropic lift should weaken as
zone of favored advective forcing lifts across southern lower
michigan. as we head toward overnight into sunday am, some
indications that a second push of stronger isentropic forcing
may tend to lift south to north across east central illinois
into west central indiana as a more defined vort max approaches
the mid ms river valley. despite the approach of this wave, low
level moisture transport still looks limited locally and more
favorable back across the mid ms rvr valley. this argues for
just maintaining 20% mention of measurable precip mainly for
west/southwest locations. sunday should feature a better chance
of slightly better mixing that could support highs reaching
near 70 across the far south/southeast.
will still maintain dry conditions for monday as the
aforementioned short wave trough dampens in a background
synoptic flow that continues to prefer longwave ridge
maintenance across central conus. some better low level moisture
transport will begin to develop later in the day monday as low
level profiles begin to veer slightly, although still more
impressive deeper transport profiles are expected to remain
anchored back to the west, and this better moisture transport
will only begin once mid/upper level forcing begins to wane.
attention for tue/wed will be on more amplified and larger scale
upper trough expected to track across central conus. despite high
amplitude, upper level forcing in terms of inducing low level height
falls looks rather modest, with much of low level negative height
tendencies will likely be derived from a broad pocket of highly
anomalous warm low level air. the upstream system also still
looks to occlude fairly quickly. better moisture pooling should
be in relatively narrow frontal zone, but a period of likely
pops still appears in order late tuesday into wednesday.
instability in occluded sector will be rather meager, although
cannot completely rule out a rumble of thunder. a period of
windy conditions may develop on tuesday with best chance of
deeper mixing during the afternoon hours. tuesday should feature
the warmest day of the period with highs back into the low-mid
70s (could approach records for the date).
no notable intrusion of significantly colder air will accompany
frontal passage midweek, with above normal temperatures
expected to continue through the end of next work week. some low
rain chances were maintained in the long term day 4-7 period
with at least the possibility of southern stream disturbance
developing out of west coast split flow meandering across ohio
river valley late in the work week.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 620 pm edt sat oct 31 2026
weak lift over a frontal zone will keep mid level clouds and
a few sprinkles around through the taf cycle. vfr otherwise
with light east-southeast winds.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...marsili
aviation...steinwedel