772
fxus63 kiwx 121846
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
146 pm est thu feb 12 2026
.key messages...
- patchy fog possible friday morning.
- low chances for rain on sunday (20-30%), mainly along and south of
us 30. amounts less than 0.10".
- gradually warmer through next week; highs in the 40s this weekend
and 50s by early next week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 145 pm est thu feb 12 2026
there are no significant weather concerns in the next 7 days.
winter will continue to take a hiatus with a mostly dry week
ahead and steadily warming temperatures. high pressure is
centered over the great lakes region today, bringing quiet and
dry conditions across our forecast area. mid and high level
clouds can be seen moving through on satellite this afternoon;
these clouds are accompanying a weakening 500mb shortwave diving
south through the area and have kept temperatures in the low to
mid 30s today. skies are expected to mostly to partly clear out
overnight, which sets the stage for another cold night with fog
potential. much like last night, winds are expected to diminish
after sunset. in locations that get mostly clear skies, expect
lows to drop into the mid to upper teens overnight. patchy dense
radiation fog will be possible in areas that clear out as well.
models vary widely again, like last night, with some having no
restrictions to visibility (thus no fog development) and others
showing high probabilities for visibility as low as 0.5 mile or
less (some members of the href). rap forecast sounding depict
low level moisture getting trapped under an inversion friday
morning. confidence is low but patchy fog may develop downwind
of lake michigan, mainly between 06-13z friday. in addition,
with temperatures falling well below freezing overnight, any
snowmelt today will refreeze, creating concerns for black ice.
watch out for patches of black ice on bridges, overpasses,
sidewalks, and secondary roads during the friday morning
commute! lots of sunshine and waa will boost temperatures into
the 40s friday afternoon (low 50s possible south of us 24).
along and south of us 30, 20-30% chances for rain exist late
saturday into sunday. these chances haven`t changed much over the
past 24 to 48 hours; an upper level trough is working its way
onshore in california, with the associated surface low developing
near las vegas, nv. the upper level trough will become more
amplified as it moves across the southern us. in response, the
surface low will deepen and a warm front will lift north through
the mid mississippi river valley. while this front will not
make it far enough north into our area, it will allow for
moisture and warmth from the gulf to be pulled northward over
the weekend. long and medium range model guidance (both ensemble
and deterministic) align well with the southern tier of our
forecast area getting in on some light rain late saturday into
sunday. amounts will be less than a tenth in most places; chose
to go with wpc qpf guidance for sunday.
a strong upper level ridge is then expected to build across the
central and eastern conus into early next week. confidence continues
to increase for well above normal temperatures for the early and
middle parts of next week. the warmest days will likely be
tuesday and wednesday before the ridge flattens out. highs in
the 50s are likely; some locations south of us 24 may even make
a run at 60 degrees! a more active pattern looks to resume by
the middle of next week with chances for rain returning next
wednesday.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1223 pm est thu feb 12 2026
a weakening shortwave diving south of the area is expected to do
nothing more than spread high to mid level clouds over the area
today into most of tonight. those mid level clouds will be helped
along by waa ensuing especially across northwest portions of the
area on the backside of a departing surface high pressure area. just
like this morning, perhaps there`s enough breaks in the clouds to
cause radiational cooling and fog in spots, but it won`t be
widespread and therefore comes with less confidence in its
occurrence. cross-over temps and winds are favorable for this at
times during the evening/overnight, but again it`ll depend on cloud
cover and its residence time.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...johnson
aviation...roller