349
fxus63 kiwx 021056
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
556 am est mon nov 2 2026
.key messages...
- light rain showers continue at times through this evening
(20-30% chances).
- much better chances for rain (80-100%) arrive late tuesday
night into early wednesday.
- highs will be well into the 70s on tuesday with breezy
conditions but otherwise highs remain around 60 the rest of
the week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 120 am est mon nov 2 2026
scattered, light rain showers/drizzle will persist through today as
broad 295-300k isentropic upglide continues. this isentropic ascent
is very gentle though and we are still battling some dry air
concerns so there will be plenty of rain-free areas as well and have
maintained just broad-brushed 20 pop`s through this evening. best
chances appear to be east of i-69 late this afternoon into the
evening as models indicate another weak shortwave rippling through
the area. this wave exits overnight and isentropic surfaces orient
more parallel to increasing southwest flow. therefore, expect dry
conditions to return late tonight through most of the day tue.
overcast skies today yield highs only in the low/mid 60s. tue high
temp forecast is tricky. strong sw flow/waa develops ahead of
approaching trough but cloud cover is still a question. some peaks
of sun are likely, especially in our se, and this could push highs
to near record territory (76). tempered nbm highs downward a bit as
they are likely biased by the last few weeks of very warm/sunny
conditions. if full sun materializes then it`s possible but expect
at least some clouds given degree of moisture streaming into
the region.
very few changes regarding tue night`s frontal passage. upper trough
and low level cyclone will be rapidly lifting and occluding over the
upper midwest late tue. this combined with surface low track toward
lake superior will support a healthy midlevel dry slot moving into
the area wed morning and bringing a quick end to rain. maintained
categorical pop`s out of respect for the moisture advection but
westward displacement of better mid/upper level dynamics and
southward displacement of any meaningful instability will likely
leave our area with just some brief, light rain showers late tue
night into wed morning. rainfall amounts around 0.25" with no
thunder anticipated. while steady/moderate rain ends wed afternoon,
a prolonged period of general cyclonic flow is expected to develop
wed night into next week as several upper lows pinwheel through the
great lakes. this supports periodic low chances for light rain,
particularly downwind of still warm lake michigan. the only
exception looks to be a brief break in between systems on sat.
temps return to more seasonable values to end the week but still
trending slightly above normal with highs around 60 and lows
around 40.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 556 am est mon nov 2 2026
satellite and observing stations indicate mvfr ceilings are
steadily spreading north this morning; quickly closing in on
ksbn. observations in central in and central il show ifr
ceilings in place; perhaps not completely out of the realm of
possibility for our local area for at least a brief time. weak
ascent through an increasingly saturated atmosphere still lends
the opportunity for passing light showers or sprinkles today.
the low level jet strengthens tonight ahead of a mid-latitude
cyclone moving into the midwest. llws may be a concern through
most of tuesday morning before the llj eases in the afternoon.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...agd
aviation...brown