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area forecast discussion...corrected
national weather service northern indiana
625 pm edt fri sep 18 2020

issued at 251 pm edt fri sep 18 2020

a period of cooler temperatures is expected tonight and saturday
with the possibility of frost forming by early saturday. high
temperatures will start the period on saturday in the low 60s, but
trend warmer eventually reaching the upper 70s to near 80 on
wednesday. also expect a dry forecast through next week.


.short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 251 pm edt fri sep 18 2020

high pressure on the back end of the trough continues to keep the
area dry for this period. a strong subsidence inversion is forecast
to form tonight as indicated by bufkit soundings. dewpoints are
expected to drop into the low to mid 30s across much of the area
tonight while winds slow down to around 5 kts. winds out of the east
could help to keep areas east of i-69 and south of us-6 a little
warmer on some lake erie marine air as indicated by the low level
theta-e gradient in that area on the nam model. with all of this in
place, expect temperatures to fall into the upper 30s. as such a
frost advisory has been issued for saturday morning. the best chance
for frost will be in areas west of i-69 though where the coolest
temperatures and lightest winds are forecast to reside, but can`t
rule it out in nw oh either. be sure to cover very sensitive
plants in the advisory area.

after the cool morning temperatures, mixing heights to between 900
and 850 mb where 3 to 5c temperatures reside allow for low to mid
60s for high temperatures under skies with little if any clouds on
saturday. these temperatures of low to mid 60s for highs and mid
to upper 30s for lows is more typical for october so these are
below average temperatures for this time of year.


.long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 251 pm edt fri sep 18 2020

the long term will be characterized by a departing trough early in
the period and a strengthening ridge over the western half of the
conus into western areas of the great lakes region during the rest
of the period. some tropical activity in the gulf moves ashore, but
will be swept east before they can affect the area with tropical
moisture. as such the area will continue to remain dry; even
thursday as the cold front that swings through is rather devoid of
moisture. also, a warming trend is expected from saturday to
wednesday becoming more seasonable to slightly above normal ahead of
thursday`s cold front.


.aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z saturday evening)
issued at 625 pm edt fri sep 18 2020

tremendous sfc ridge slowly transecting the lakes this period
assures vfr with nil wx.


.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...frost advisory from 2 am edt /1 am cdt/ to 9 am edt /8 am cdt/
saturday for inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

mi...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt saturday for miz077>081.

oh...frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt saturday for ohz001-002-004-




short term...roller
long term...roller

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