356
fxus63 kiwx 301922
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
222 pm est fri jan 30 2026
.key messages...
- a period of heavy lake effect snow with rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour and poor visibility will impact la porte
county and extreme southwest berrien county tonight.
- snow totals and travel conditions will vary notably over small
distances. regardless of exact snow amounts, travel will be
hazardous within the heavy lake effect snow band.
- wind chills overnight and saturday morning near -10 to -15
away from lake effect clouds.
- temperatures warm into the 20s starting sunday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 222 pm est fri jan 30 2026
sagging upper-level trough has been a relentless light-snow producer
today. synoptic lift via the left exit region of a wrapped-up 500-
mb jet has been a contributing factor along with a low level
column within the dendritic growth zone. this activity
continues to fade south, now along and south of us 30, while the
main area of lake effect snow is over far northeast il.
this evening, attention turns to the northern lake michigan
where the last of the upper-level trough is working its way
south, sparking an area of light, synoptic, snow along with
streams of lake effect. we anticipate lake effect snow to shift
back to the east tonight and spill onshore over la porte and
berrien counties. while not quite a slam-dunk (cams continue to
waver), enough evidence points to a quick hitting dose of heavy
lake effect snow. as has been the case over il and far northwest
in today, very strong lift through a saturated dgz and
equilibrium levels approaching 8k ft (could be better), along
with upper-level support, indicate a high likihood of 1-2"
rates of fluffy snow. travel in this key transportation corridor
will become dangerous for a time overnight. berrien county was
considered for an advisory as well, but a very small sliver of
the county could be impacted by several inches of snow (e.g.,
grand beach, new buffalo, union pier). should the band shift
east into our area just long enough, totals will exceed the
advertised 2-4 inches. snow shifts west of la porte county after
daybreak and weakens.
one additional hazard of note tonight are wind chills of -10 to
-15. the area of interest is from putnam county ohio, southwest
to grant county indiana. incoming cloud cover with the
aformentioned trough decreases forecast confidence in a
forecast already right-at cold weather advisory criteria of
-15f wind chill. given the prolonged cold pattern, uncertain
duration, and saturday morning timing, have declined headlines
at this time.
the first week of february will see a couple of chances for
clipper systems to breeze through (monday and possibly
wednesday), followed by a larger storm system tracking through
michigan at the end of the week. high temperatures will
generally be in the 20s with low temperatures this weekend in
the single- digits at times, "warming" into the low-teens.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1152 am est fri jan 30 2026
per radar and satellite imagery, a single heavy lake effect
snow band is currently moving southwest into the chicago area as
of midday, but it is expected to pivot back over nw indiana
overnight. winds become light and variable tonight as a trough
shifts into the area, with a similar setup to yesterday with
variable low end vfr to high end mvfr ceilings. ksbn will get in
on the lake effect snow overnight, with the heaviest snow
falling between 06z to 12z saturday as the lake effect band
shifts back over our area. expect prevailing mvfr ceilings and
visibilities, with ifr ceilings and visibilities at times in the
heavier bursts of snow. kfwa will stay out of the primary lake
effect band but may see some scattered snow showers in the
vicinity tomorrow morning. after the lake effect dissipates, a
dry saturday is anticipated with winds coming from the north.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory from 9 pm this evening to 6 am cst
saturday for inz103-203.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...brown
aviation...johnson