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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1204 am est thu feb 2 2023

.synopsis...
issued at 550 pm est wed feb 1 2023

warming trend over the next couple of days will lead to high
temperatures in the low to mid 30s by thursday afternoon. an
arctic cold front will usher in much colder temperatures thursday
night into friday with a period of lake effect snow showers
possible. this arctic air will be quick to depart the region, with
a warming trend again for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 225 pm est wed feb 1 2023

sunny skies over the area is kind of deceiving as high
temperatures will only manage to get to the mid-20s today. sub-
freezing temperatures remains the main weather impact at this time
and lows tonight will fall into the mid to upper teens, which is
at least some improvement over the last couple of nights. this
warming trend is thanks to a more zonal flow over the area that
will allow for some moderation in the temps.

thursday some locations will actually warm to above freezing into
the mid 30s, especially the southern half of our cwa. the northern
half of the area looks to remain just below the freezing mark. by
thursday afternoon clouds will begin moving in from the north and
will herald the return to much colder air as an arctic front makes
it`s way into the region.

&&

.long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 225 pm est wed feb 1 2023

thursday night the arctic front associated with the very cold
low over the hudson bay region will begin to move into the area
and bringing gusty north winds, dropping temperatures, and even
some lake effect snow showers. locations close to the lake, mainly
berrien and cass counties in michigan and la porte and st. joseph
counties in indiana will see some light accumulations, about 1 to
2 inches of snowfall. with the gusty winds and light snow there
will be the possibility of some blowing snow for those locations
from thursday night into friday morning.

snow showers will come to an end outside a few isolated flurries.
high temperatures on friday will only get into the mid to upper
teens, northwest ohio counties may only get into the lower teens.

saturday morning will start cold with lows in the upper single
digits, but will rebound rather nicely with highs getting into the
mid 30s as ridging begins to move into the region from the west
and by sunday highs will finally get into the balmy 40s on sunday
and monday. guidance seems to be struggling with the exact timing
on the next system but have opted to keep the current thinking
with a few disturbances moving through the area with the first
burst on monday into tuesday and again tuesday evening into
wednesday. with the warmer temperatures still in place
chances of light precipitation in liquid form is expected each of
the days. however, on early tuesday morning in northwest ohio
some graupel/snow pellets could mix in with the light rain.
keep in mind that the guidance seems to be at loggerheads with the
exact timing and development of next weeks system so some fine
tuning/adjustments will still be needed in coming days.

&&

.aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z thursday night)
issued at 1133 pm est wed feb 1 2023

southwest winds will continue today ahead of a strong cold front.
the front is initially expected to be dry; however, post-frontal
clouds including lake enhanced clouds are expected to spread over
northern indiana. have kept snow out of tafs for now as activity
should be more favored after 06z.


&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
mi...none.
oh...none.
lm...small craft advisory from 10 am thursday to 4 pm est friday for
lmz043.

small craft advisory from 4 pm thursday to 4 pm est friday for
lmz046.

&&

$$

synopsis...andersen
short term...andersen
long term...andersen
aviation...skipper


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