249
fxus63 kiwx 302319
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
719 pm edt sun aug 30 2026
.key messages...
- chances for scattered showers continue into tonight, with
mainly dry conditions to follow monday through wednesday.
- hotter and more humid conditions build through midweek,
peaking tuesday into wednesday when afternoon heat indices
may reach up to near 100 degrees.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 200 pm edt sun aug 30 2026
showers associated with a shortwave and elevated waa will drift off
to the east-southeast by ~19z. another upstream low amplitude,
convectively augmented, shortwave follows east into the lower great
lakes late this afternoon into this evening with additional
showers expected, mainly along/north of us 24.
monday could very well be similar to today with clouds and showers
around as moisture continues to stream in on the northern periphery
of an upper level ridge centered over the southern plains and mid ms
river valley. however, this heat dome will be gradually building
northward which would orient the low level jet core and associated
moisture transport more off to the the north-northwest when compared
to today. opted to introduce some low-end pops far north to account
for the close proximity and latest model guidance. ongoing southerly
flow in the low levels (sfc dewpoints nearing 70f), in combination
with any filtered sunshine, may push afternoon heat indices well
into the 90s otherwise by monday afternoon, best chances across the
southern half of the forecast area.
near advisory level heat/humidity becomes the primary concern into
tuesday and wednesday as the impressive ~596 dam 5h ridge drifts
east over the oh valley. higher confidence in peak pm heat indices
nearing 100f continues to be along and south of the us 30 corridor
each day. northern portions may struggle with convective cloud
debris (thus slightly cooler) from what should be a periodically
stormy pattern north of the area. the nbm continued with its dry
forecast each day, but would not be surprised if at least a low pop
is introduced in the north at some point.
models continue to break down the upper ridging for the second half
of the week which should bring slightly cooler temps and periodic
chances (20-40%) for convection as several shortwaves and a frontal
boundary drop through in developing northwest flow aloft.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 711 pm edt sun aug 30 2026
warm air advection and moisture convergence continues to bring
showers along with a few isolated thunderstorms across northern
in and southern mi. will continue to mention the possibility of
showers for both taf sites from 00z through 04z mon for both
sites but did drop vsbys into mvfr for ksbn during that period.
otherwise, vfr conditions expected through the remainder of the
taf period. southwesterly winds do become breezy after 15z mon
with gusts around 20 kts possible especially for kfwa.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...andersen