497
fxus63 kiwx 282327
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
727 pm edt wed oct 28 2026
.key messages...
- a few showers or sprinkles are possible thursday.
- showers are possible at times over the weekend, with the best
chances on sunday. forecast confidence for this period
remains low.
- cooler, but still above normal temperatures, arrive thursday
and persist into next week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 1259 pm edt wed oct 28 2026
increasing southwesterly flow has allowed a return to temperatures
in the 70s with some increase in near surface (950 mb and lower per
12z kilx sounding). further increase in moisture will await the
arrival of a cold front and a narrow swath of increased isentropic
lift and lower cpds to bring some potential for isolated to
scattered showers (maybe a storm) thursday. greatest lift seems to
exist during the afternoon, which would coincide with peak heating
(although clouds may hamper that to some extent). toned down likely
pops in nw to higher chance for now.
the passage of the front will bring a push of caa, essentially
cutting off 10 degrees or so from the high temps we have enjoyed
over the past several days. this is still above normal for the end
of oct. sfc high pressure will build across the great lakes, keeping
the warm and moist conditions just to our south through the upcoming
weekend. depending on the final resting place of the stationary
front and fluctuations in its location, some chance for showers does
remain in this period. by no means is there expected to be a washout
and halloween activities appear to be mostly dry.
models are in agreement on an upper low moving to the pacific nw
shores by 18z sat. from here differences increase as a series on
northern and southern stream waves either eject from this upper low
or move into the sw us. gfs remains the most aggressive with a deeper
upper low over ok by 6z wed, vs the ec/gem that have a similar
location but much weaker. suffice to say, plenty of moisture will
push north with this system but the timing of specific impacts to
our area remain in doubt at this point.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 725 pm edt wed oct 28 2026
with surface high pressure to the east and a shortwave traversing
the northern great lakes, this pushes a cold front into the region
towards the end of the taf period. with this setup, a low level jet
pushes through the area thursday morning. this keeps winds excited
over night and could allow for a quick period of marginally
significant llws. at this point, it is just weak enough to keep it
out of the tafs. this jet could still allow a 20 kt gust during peak
heating at fwa. otherwise, with the fropa, some rain will be
possible and have added a prob30 group for lowered flight
conditions. it is very possible this group is removed at the
next issuance.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...fisher
aviation...roller