804
fxus63 kiwx 160700
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
200 am est mon feb 16 2026
.key messages...
- areas of fog, locally dense, expected this morning.
- unseasonably mild through the week.
- rain showers are likely tuesday night into wednesday morning, and
again late thursday into friday.
- cooler (near normal) weather returns by this weekend.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 200 am est mon feb 16 2026
fog continues to gradually fill in early this morning given a
relaxed gradient wind and lingering near sfc moisture trapped within
an inversion. incoming high clouds are likely too late to have much
of an impact with areas of dense fog likely to settle into many
areas toward daybreak, best chances in our in and oh counties
where a dense fog advisory may be needed through the mid morning
hours. unseasonably mild and dry otherwise today and tuesday
with the active polar jet displaced to the north, and heights
slowly on the rise in advance of incoming rockies and high
plains troughing.
pattern then becomes more active for the mid to late week periods as
several systems track along a ~140 kt upper jet developing
from the four corners east-northeast into the ohio valley. the first
low pressure system surging along this incoming upper jet likely
settles northeast into the upper midwest tuesday night within the
diffluent flow field, eventually going through the filling/occlusion
process during the day on wednesday. an associated shot of thete-e
advection will focus rain showers over the area tuesday night into
wednesday morning along an elevated warm front. some weak
instability noted on the leading edge of an eml could be enough to
generate a few storms wednesday morning, though confidence in
thunder chances remains low. warm sector and this eml should put a
cap on things for most of the area by wednesday afternoon with mild
and breezy conditions anticipated.
the lingering baroclinic zone then sets up over or just north of the
area into thursday and friday. the next jet packet and developing
sfc reflection will track along it with another period of rain
(iso thunder?) likely late thursday into friday morning. trending
cooler then behind this system into the weekend.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 1258 am est mon feb 16 2026
areas of fog continue to develop tonight as a low level
anticyclone remains sprawled from southern missouri into central
indiana. valpo univ special soundings last evening nicely
capture a sharpening low level inversion in this setup. this
inversion should help to keep low level winds light and variable
through much of the overnight hours despite some strengthening
of the low level gradient. best chances of dense fog still
appear intact at kfwa after 09z given location of old residual
low level moisture gradient. despite slightly drier low level
air at ksbn, good decoupling and temps crashing through
crossover values will still support fog formation at least
through 10z or 11z before gradient strengthens. fog should
dissipate toward mid morning with vfr conditions this afternoon
into early evening. southwest wind gusts to 15 to 20 knots are
expected before decoupling to 10 knots or less this evening.
some fog may develop again early tuesday morning as a sfc trough
hangs up across the southern great lakes, but this potential
will be addressed with the 12z tafs.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili