019
fxus63 kiwx 011726
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
126 pm edt thu oct 1 2026
.key messages...
- window of mostly dry weather outside of a few scattered
showers will come to an end by this afternoon. chances for
showers (50-90%) and an isolated thunderstorms return this
afternoon into the overnight period. locally heavy rain is
possible, but overall flood concerns continue to appear low
at this time.
- dry conditions are expected this weekend into early next week,
with highs in the 60s, low 70s (warmest further south).
overnight lows will drop into the 40s. tuesday morning looks
to be the coldest night with lows dropping into the upper 30s.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 415 am edt thu oct 1 2026
synoptic pattern continues to shift with the ridging to the
southeast pushing eastward over the next day or so. troughing
over the northern conus will push southeast into the great
lakes region and push the band of recent rain that has been in
place just to our north and west south through the cwa beginning
today through tomorrow morning in the form of a cold front. a
few embedded thunderstorms are possible with this frontal
passage but lack of any decent shear and instability any storms
should remain weak but in any storms heavy downpours will be
possible especially with pwat values around 1.75 to 2 inches.
wpc ero has our area mainly under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall but a small area mostly for the western portions of the
cwa is under a slight risk for excessive rainfall.
in the wake of the front on friday morning into the early
afternoon cooler temperatures and drier conditions will arrive
and with a more zonal flow in place aloft shall continue through
the weekend into next week. highs each day mainly in the 60s
with a few locations far south getting close to the 70 degree
mark. lows will also drop into the 40s each night beginning
saturday morning. the coldest morning looks to be tuesday with
lows getting into the upper 30s. time to make sure your furnaces
are tuned up for the season.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 120 pm edt thu oct 1 2026
a cut-off upper level low across central plains will continue to
get ingested by a more progressive northern stream flow across
the great lakes region into early friday. the combination of the
eastward progression of this feature and a weaker northern
stream upper level short wave trough kicking out of the corn
belt will allow for a southeast sagging low level frontal zone
to push across northern indiana tonight into early friday.
evolution of these features will allow for strengthening axis of
925-850 mb fgen forcing late this afternoon from central il into
south central lower michigan. some convective cells could
develop along a differential heating zone across far northern
indiana, with an eventual transition to more of a solid rainband
this evening. some weak surface based instability (200-500 j/kg)
could yield isolated thunder potential between 21z-00z but point
probabilities are too low at this time to include with the 18z
tafs. cigs should deteriorate to ifr later tonight as the
baroclinic zone drops south with a northwest to southeast
improvement back to vfr friday morning as drier low level air
works in behind the front.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am to 11 pm edt friday for lmz043-
046.
&&
$$
discussion...andersen
aviation...marsili