214
fxus63 kiwx 181732
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1232 pm est wed feb 18 2026
.key messages...
- record to near record highs today and thursday
- isolated thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds possible
early this morning and again thursday afternoon and evening
- severe storms not expected, but gusty winds with storms likely
- local flooding not expected with antecedently dry ground
conditions and with fast-moving storms.
&&
.update...
issued at 806 am est wed feb 18 2026
tongue of moisture pushing through this morning signals the
final thunderstorm threat today as the column dries behind that.
there`s plenty of kinematics and some instability as well, but
the dry slot moving in ends the thunderstorm threat today. as a
cold front slides through, and potentially stalls just south of
us-24, the jet across the south dissipates and its the jet
across lake mi and into mi that remains. mixing heights stay
below 850 mb through the day until the evening when that jet
pushes into mi. this keeps gusts below 30 kts, but given dry air
moving in (50 f dew points drop to 30 degrees this evening),
this could be enough to dry out grasses. recent snowmelt and
morning rain may be enough to keep the ground wet, but could
leaves on the ground dry out too? looks more like a dry grasses
kind of fire weather day if at all.
as far as thursday`s thunderstorm threat goes, given main low is
still back over the central plains, we`ll be watching for
individual shortwaves ejecting out of that area. there appears
to be one such wave that moves through during the midday,
thursday, but that may be on the early side to get any
instability going in this february air. this is why hi-res
models seem to be pointing to the better severe potential
staying south as outflow boundaries push south and instability
is eaten up. the kinematics are still the main worry for
tomorrow though, because shear and even some helicity looks to
be around for if there`s any forcing and instability that can be
squeezed out. some thunderstorms are still possible, but the
severity remains the question at this point.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 1249 am est wed feb 18 2026
a powerful mid level jet at 500 mb with a speed max close to 120
knots per gfs was approaching ca at the time of this writing. these
strong winds are expected to translate north as the upper trof along
the west coast amplifies. this scenario will cause surface moisture
to surge north downstream of the trof axis across the ohio river
wednesday night and thursday and ahead of a strong cold front.
unseasonably mild temperatures will rise well into the 60s with
record to near record highs today. record highs are 66 degrees at
south bend and 67 at ft wayne respectively. surface dew points
should rise into the 50s south of highway 30 (oxi[knox]-asw-fwa-
aoh). bufkit soundings support low-topped storms with low capes
(generally below 200 [20k feet]).
the front should race across the forecast area including northern
indiana late thursday night. conditions after midnight should have
stabilized somewhat from afternoon capes reaching close to 600 j/kg.
strong gusty winds are expected with the storms before much cooler
air spreads across the area early friday. at this time, severe
storms are not expected, but wind gusts to 50 mph are possible with
the strong storms ahead and along the front. the gfs has been
very consistent with the system including storms only producing
around a quarter of an inch of rain. this amount of rain appears
reasonable and on track given the environment and fast storm
track. the flood risk from storms appears extremely low given
the antecedently dry conditions and limited rainfall.
otherwise, much colder air will spread over the area friday and
prevail over the weekend. the gfs bufkit shows a shallow cold
layer with the base of the inversion under 5000 ft (850 mb).
given a west fetch, a limited residence time, a shallow
inversion and a deep subsidence area above the inversion,
limited to very limited lake effect snow amounts are expected.
current thinking is any lake effect snow impacts should be
minor.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1232 pm est wed feb 18 2026
area of low level lift and associated showers/isolated storms
has shifted well east of both sites, which are now firmly
entrenched in the warm sector of the approaching system. wind
gusts of 25 to locally 35 kts will persist through the afternoon
before diminishing. a further increase in low level moisture and
a stalled weak boundary may allow for the development of some
stratus/fog at both sites (kfwa having the best shot) overnight.
will maintain previous tempos to handle for now, but not
expecting widespread issues.
focus then becomes chances for showers and a few storms ahead of
the main trough and front which will impact the area outside of
the current forecast period.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
update...roller
discussion...skipper
aviation...fisher