922
fxus63 kiwx 250003
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
803 pm edt fri apr 24 2026
.key messages...
- showers and a few isolated storms east of interstate 69 will
shift off to the east this evening.
- dry over the weekend and slightly cooler with highs in the 60s.
- the next chance for severe weather comes monday evening into monday
night. all hazards will be possible, including damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 117 pm edt fri apr 24 2026
visible satellite and radar imagery shows clusters of developing
showers and a few embedded non-severe thunderstorms across
northwest and central indiana ahead of an incoming cold front.
these showers are expected to continue to lift into our area and
may intensify with better daytime heating. breezy southerly
winds and low level waa have boosted temperatures up into the
mid 70s so far this afternoon. dewpoints have also surged into
the upper 50s. destabilization is expected to occur within the
next few hours, especially as storms progress eastward into an
environment with better low level convergence and up to 500-1000
j/kg of sbcape. spc does have a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather today along and east of in-15. steep low
level lapse rates of 8-9 c/km should support at least an
isolated damaging wind threat today, despite persistent cloud
cover and a lack of organized low level wind shear. the best
chances for isolated clusters of strong to severe storms will be
across far northeast indiana and into northwest ohio between
3-9 pm edt. pwats of 1.25"-1.5" also support potential for heavy
rain in any storms, although storm motions should be fast
enough to prevent a flooding threat this afternoon and evening.
winds diminish and precipitation subsides shortly after sunset
tonight, giving way to a calm and dry weekend ahead as high pressure
builds back in across the great lakes. slightly cooler with highs in
the 60s both days with caa from prevailing northerly winds.
confidence is starting to increase that there could be a better,
more widespread opportunity for severe weather late monday afternoon
through monday night. a series of strong 500 mb shortwaves will
eject out of the colorado rockies late sunday, with a low pressure
system developing across the central plains and deepening as it
lifts into the upper midwest by monday evening. the system`s
attendant cold front will spark severe weather potential west of our
area during the day monday across the mid mississippi river valley.
there is some potential that this convection (likely an
organized qlcs or clusters of storms) is able to sustain itself
into our forecast area by monday evening into monday night. it
appears convection could get into far western indiana between
22z to 02z. i do want to note that the gfs and ecmwf have slight
differences in timing of the cold front, which could make all
the difference on if severe weather occurs. the gfs has a
slightly faster setup than the ecmwf, which lends itself to a
more favorable environment to tap into. uncertainties remain on
exact timing and whether or not the environment here will be
favorable, but spc does have at least the southwest portion of
our forecast area highlighted in their day 4 severe outlook.
whether or not our area gets severe weather will be highly
dependent on if the system`s attendant warm front lifts far
enough north on monday and if the cold front is able to get here
before instability wanes and we lose our daytime heating.
despite a loss of instability after sunset (only 500-1000 j/kg
mucape), there does appear to be a decent setup given ~40 kts of
bulk shear and ~150 m2/s2 of 0-1 km srh. all hazards will be
possible if severe weather occurs monday evening into monday
night, including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 801 pm edt fri apr 24 2026
an upper level short wave lifting across the western great lakes and
ohio valley coupled with an associated sfc cool front have lead to
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms across northeast indiana.
these showers are in process of departing kfwa vicinity as of 00z
this evening, with no additional thunder potential anticipated
this evening. a couple of sfc troughs are noted this evening,
the first departing across northeast indiana with another subtle
low level trough expected to drop across southern lake michigan
late evening/early overnight. the concern tonight continues to
be on potential of some redevelopment of low clouds with good
deal of low level moisture trapped beneath frontal inversion.
ksbn may experience some mvfr cigs for a time late evening/early
overnight with the secondary sfc trough passage, with some
indications that northerly low level flow off eastern great
lakes may tend to advect some more low clouds back west across
far northeast indiana. confidence in this scenario is on the low
side, with at least a potential kfwa may be on western fringe
of these impacts. lingering low clouds at kfwa should mix out by
midday saturday with a continuation of northerly flow around 10
knots.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...johnson
aviation...marsili