931
fxus63 kiwx 291312
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
912 am edt thu oct 29 2026
.key messages...
- 20% to 40% chance of isolated showers this afternoon as a cold
front moves through. remaining very warm ahead of the front.
- not quite as warm this weekend but still above-normal to end
october.
- 20 to 40% chance of showers on halloween, mainly west of i-
69.
&&
.update...
issued at 906 am edt thu oct 29 2026
cold front extends from central wi to eastern ia this morning
and is expected to make slow progress through the day. 12z kilx
sounding shows some improvement in moisture compared to 24 hours
ago, but still a decent amount of dry air in the low levels.
this has resulted in any showers being limited to some
sprinkles. conditions improve somewhat this afternoon, with pops
on track at this point as isolated to maybe scattered showers
(storm?) develop.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 212 am edt thu oct 29 2026
high pressure continues to flex its muscle over the eastern conus
early this morning. water vapor shows fleeting pacific moisture
return to a cold front working its way through the midwest, but
battling the aformentioned high. satellite and radar show a broken
line of showers from central wi (whose population is basking in a
world series championship) through eastern iowa, while a better
organized area of rain occurs north-northeast of there. back at
home, preexisting dry air keeps a majority of the day dry. however,
there is growing concensus that modest saturation below 16,000 ft
and adequate upper-level forcing from the right entrance region of a
departing 500-mb jet will be enough for at least isoalted showers
along the cold front from west to east after 12pm edt. cannot
completely rule out an isoalted thunderstorm as a thin ribbon of
instability accompanies the front, per high resolution ensembles.
skies quickly clear out behind the front and lows will tumble to
near 40 by friday morning.
the rest of the forecast period is characterized by cooler, but
still above-normal temperatures, and increasing chances for
rain. we continue to monitor the 20-40% chance of showers
saturday west of i- 69 as a weak shortwave lifts in from the
southern plains. preceding high pressure, will be fighting to
keep halloween dry, yet the rain chance must continue at this
time. the better surge of moisture arrives in the sunday-monday
time frame as high pressure centers over the appalachians
steering gulf moisture poleward. this area of rain would be
followed by a mid-latitude cyclone in the tuesday- wednesday
period, bringing mild and breezy conditions ahead of it, rain,
and then a dose of cooler air. the magnitude of these details
remain murky owing to the uncertain degree of phasing between a
subtropical jet moving over the baja, and a great basin trough
poised to move onshore this weekend.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 607 am edt thu oct 29 2026
existing tafs remain on track at this time. a narrow area of
mvfr ceilings upstream warrants the continued mvfr mention at
ksbn. otherwise, opted to improve visiblilty associated with
-shra given the shallow moisture source. isoalted afternoon
showers give way to veering surface wind, becoming calm near
daybreak with decreasing clouds behind the front.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
update...fisher
discussion...brown
aviation...brown