887
fxus63 kiwx 280526
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
126 am edt mon sep 28 2026
.key messages...
- dry conditions persist through at least tuesday, and quite
possibly wednesday, with slowly moderating temperatures.
- the next chance (50-70%) of rain arrives on thursday.
thunderstorms are possible but severe weather and heavy rain
are not expected.
- confidence in the forecast beyond thursday is low but it does
appear to trend toward cooler and drier weather returning.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 122 am edt mon sep 28 2026
the area is bookended by two areas of vorticity to start this
monday, but the stalled pattern shears out the vorticity to our west
and the nor`easter over the northeast pushes out to sea during the
day today. this leaves the area under surface high pressure and mid
level ridging suppressing activity and keeping the area dry today.
this continues a 3 day streak of seeing minrh values reach 30
percent overhead indicating how dry it has gotten each day. we
securely reached into the 70s for highs on sunday and much of our
southwest zones and portions of nw oh saw 75f highs. this
combination of dry air and seasonable highs is expected to continue
for today with another day of low to mid 70s for highs (some areas
may stretch into the upper 70s) and dew points in the 50s that
may attempt to mix back into the 40s during peak heating. the
one thing that could stop mixing today is some high clouds
overhead.
at the same time, a trough moves into the western us and pushes
eastward. the northern stream trough shears out from the southern
stream and a cutoff low forms across the southwest. this causes the
stronger vorticity to pass by north of the area where the better jet
dynamics reside. this allows another dry day for tuesday and helps
trend wednesday away from being wet to more of a dry day. nam bufkit
soundings at beh indicate a very dry layer below 850 mb through all
of wednesday.
for thursday into friday, the upper low in central canada pushes a
trough southeastward and this helps push the sheared out vorticity
into the area. this also pushes better moisture content into the
area and so confidence is higher on finally getting a return to
rain. even still, surface moisture doesn`t appear as hydrated as it
could be, instability is very low, and the trough is rather
progressive through the day thursday indicating rain that doesn`t
appear all that heavy.
now that that trough is through the area by day`s end friday, the
cutoff low down in the southwest doesn`t have the necessary kick to
get it up to the area and so it continues to remain down in the
southwest. there is uncertainty between the gfs and ecmwf on whether
to bring the energy/moisture from this low northward this weekend.
even the aigfs is between the two in a camp closer to the cmc, which
brings it into the area early, but keeps it south of the storm track
of the ecmwf.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 122 am edt mon sep 28 2026
with the northerly drainage flow over the relative cooler se lk mi
waters, fog will be on the mind on the coastal region. at this
point, it looks like there could be enough easterly flow component
to keep fog away from sbn. additionally, flow looks to avoid fwa and
so it would come down to ag fog advecting into fwa for fog to form
there. we`ll continue to watch for fog overnight but will continue
to keep it out of the terminals with this issuance. otherwise,
northerly winds stay less than 10 kts sustained through the
period.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...roller
aviation...roller