159
fxus63 kiwx 041826
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
226 pm edt fri sep 4 2026
.key messages...
- heat indices around 100 degrees will persist into this evening
in areas not fortunate enough to see a brief shower or storm.
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s are possible south of
route 30 saturday.
- 20-40% chance of thunderstorms continues into tonight with low
confidence on location, coverage and timing. locally damaging
winds are possible with the stronger storms.
- a dry pattern takes over sunday through tuesday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 226 pm edt fri sep 4 2026
models continue to point towards a transition to a drier and
somewhat cooler pattern, but as has been the case the past several
days confidence in the finer details of this remain uncertain.
the quasi-stationary boundary remains in place from southern wi to
northern parts of our forecast area and into ohio with a series of
outflow boundaries from multiple clusters of storms south of the
boundary. a line of showers and storms moved off the lake and
was progressing se, but has underwent a weakening trend over the
past hour or so. additional storms are trying to get going along
a outflow boundary in portions of cass co to jay county in.
expect widely scattered to scattered storms to persist ahead of
these area with a window of little/no convection. somewhat
better upper level dynamics and another wave arrive this evening
with limited consensus on isol-sct storms re-developing, but
timing, strength and location differences persist. will keep any
pops no higher than chance across mainly ne half of the area
this evening with a slow southward trend overnight (and
decreasing pops). slight risk for severe continues, but
confidence in overall threat is also low as best shear likely to
remain near the front. for saturday, wherever the front finally
settles in late am into the afternoon will likely see at least
some isolated to maybe scattered development. model blend is
rather messy and although tempted to make some changes, just not
enough confidence mess with anything.
sunday through tuesday still appear to be cooler and less humid with
more pleasant highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s
as the upper level ridge retrogrades slightly to the west. this
doesn`t last long with a push back northeast occuring for the second
half of the week and subsequent return to chances for convection
and/or increasing heat and humidity.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 140 pm edt fri sep 4 2026
main area of concern is the continued convection opportunities this
evening into saturday morning as a weak area of low pressure forms
in southern lower michigan in warm advection and shifts towards
ohio. this storm track appears more conducive to providing storm
chances to fwa as opposed to sbn, although it cannot be ruled
out there. given this opportunity, and with aviation guidance
pointing to some reduced flight conditions, will include that in
tafs as well. prevailing southwest winds may briefly change for
a few hours as outflow boundaries push through the area.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ohz004-005-015-
016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...fisher
aviation...roller