937
fxus63 kiwx 141135
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
635 am est sat nov 14 2026
.key messages...
- scattered lake effect rain showers, possibly mixed with some
snow, are expected to shift across far northwest indiana and
southwest lower michigan this morning. any snow is expected to
be limited to trace amounts.
- scattered rain showers later this morning will diminish this
afternoon with mostly cloudy skies expected.
- below normal temperatures continue today through the weekend
followed by slowly moderating temperatures into the low to mid
60s by the end of the upcoming work week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 230 am est sat nov 14 2026
lake effect precipitation continues this morning across northwest
indiana. a larger scale upper level trough is sinking southward
across the southern great lakes early this morning and southward
passage of this upper trough should begin to create more favorable
backing wind profiles to support eastward movement of lake effect
precip. along with these more favorable trajectories is
diminishing rh in the snow production layer, which appears to be
resulting in an increased cellular nature in the regional radar
mosaic presentation. a weak mid level trough accompanying this
upper level short wave should bring a narrow west-east axis of
better mid level rh for a brief time in the 08z-12z time period
this morning. however, this will still be a very marginal mid
level moisture profile in the snow production layer and will be
transitory in nature as the weak mid level trough axis sinks
south.
in terms of thermal profiles, sharp cooling has occurred outside of
lake effect clouds, but as favored lake effect precip area shifts
eastward over next several hours, sfc/near sfc wet bulbs will begin
to creep up downwind of lake michigan leading to a possible
preference to light lake effect rain showers, or perhaps even a
little bit of drizzle at times as morning progresses as the dgz
dries out even more behind the aforementioned mid level trough
axis. forecast thinking has not changed much since the last
cycle, with any snow likely of the trace variety given the above
factors. liquid equivalent precip will also not be in the same
ballpark as experienced past 24 hours across extreme nw indiana
with this lake effect precip as synoptic forcing and moisture
depths become more marginal this morning.
some increase in clouds is expected across the area this morning
given this subtle backing wind profile with generally mostly
cloudy to partly sunny skies today as narrow layer of low level
moisture may be trapped by weak subsidence inversion. thermal
profiles are not significantly different from yesterday which
should yield similar highs in the mid to upper 40s.
for tonight, a lagging weak mid/upper level short wave is forecast
to round the departing larger scale negative upper height anomaly
into the southern great lakes. mid level moisture recovery
looks limited however, but could see some weak rejuvenation of
some light lake effect rain showers/sprinkles this evening. will
maintain lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s tonight with
expectation that low clouds should tend to linger.
the longwave pattern through the weekend should be a stable one and
slowly evolving in a conus trough-ridge-trough setup, with a cut
off upper low across the southern plains. this stable wave pattern
will be accompanied by weak baroclinicity and weak advective
trends which will make the moderation in temperatures quite a
slow process, especially considering low level mixing will
remain weak through early next week. there is a greater
potential of better insolation into sunday and monday however,
which will likely push highs into the lower 50s.
the extended periods of the forecast still look rather benign as
guidance continues to suggest next pacific wave attempts to
dampen the upper ridge across the area for the middle of the
week. this system looks to be quite progressive with an axis of
better 925-800 mb mixing ratios shifting into the area late
wednesday. any elevated instability along this axis looks to be
quite limited in nature and expectation is still that better
rain chances will be confined north of the area.
mid/upper level heights recover quickly behind this short wave for
thursday and friday, with a potential of a larger scale and more
dynamic eastern pacific upper trough moving across western conus by
late thursday into friday. a large part of central/eastern conus
will experience well above normal temps downstream of this feature
for the thu-sat period. still some expected discrepancies noted
in medium range deterministic/ensemble solutions in timing of
this feature toward the days 6-7 period, but blended pops
including low chances by next weekend still appear reasonable as
a low level jet axis and better moisture transport shift east
into the local area.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 630 am est sat nov 14 2026
predominantly mvfr to vfr conditions at the terminals, with the
best potential for any rain/snow showers at ksbn this morning.
as of right now, light rain is reported with a temp around 34
degrees at ksbn, with ceilings around 2500 ft. upstream
observations and model guidance suggest there is potential for
ceilings to drop to 1500-2000 ft this morning with vis around
5sm, so have a tempo until 16z to accommodate this. guidance is
conflicted with respect to how long the potential exists for
these lower thresholds and showers (some take the precip/lower
ceilings just northeast of the terminal after 16z), so have a
prob30 to cover this. otherwise, mvfr conditions approach with a
trough this afternoon and evening, bringing even kfwa down to
mvfr (they are temporarily clear/vfr right now). some of the
guidance suggests a lake influence all the way inland with a
boost in lift from the trough creating rain showers this
afternoon, but it`s tough to say how impactful they will be
given incoming dry air. have a prob30 at kfwa for the most
likely time period of any showers, with potential for ceilings
around 2kft.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.
&&
$$
discussion...marsili
aviation...mcd