460
fxus63 kiwx 142320
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
620 pm est sat feb 14 2026
.key messages...
- 20-60% chances for rain between 12-7 am est sunday, mainly
along and south of us 24.
- steadily increasing temperatures ahead; several days in the
50s area-wide this week.
- wednesday will be the warmest day with widespread highs in the
60s! locations south of us 24 could approach 70 degrees.
- an active weather pattern returns with additional chances for
rain and gusty winds for the later half of next week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 235 pm est sat feb 14 2026
clouds can be seen on satellite imagery this afternoon advecting
into our area ahead of chances for rain overnight. areas to the
north of us 30 will stay dry but the southern half of the forecast
area is expected to get in on some light rain. models have waffled
back and forth over the past few runs (especially hi-res guidance)
on how far north precipitation will get. it appears as through the
best chances for rain will be in grant, blackford, jay, van wert,
and allen (oh) counties, as this is where most forecast soundings
show decent lift and moisture developing after midnight. a tight
gradient between moist and dry air will be present in our far
south, but can`t rule out light rain making it as far north as
fort wayne tonight. there will be a lot of mid level dry air to
overcome so the best chances for rain are expected to be along
and south of us 24 between 06-12z sunday morning. wherever an
axis of low level convergence sets up could aid in lift and
allow for localized amounts of rain up to 0.25" (especially
grant, blackford, jay counties). for now, have stuck with a
50/50 blend of nbm and wpc guidance, which keeps qpf between
0.05"-0.10" total tonight into early saturday.
warmer weather is on the way! a strong upper level ridge will build
across the central and eastern conus into early next week.
confidence continues to increase for well above normal temperatures.
highs climb into the mid 50s on monday and tuesday. the warmest day
will be wednesday as the ridge will be centered right over our area.
ensembles have the highest temperature anomalies on wednesday and
are in good agreement for highs that are 20 to 30 degrees above
normal. strong waa and a warm front lifting north will boost high
temperatures into the 60s area-wide on wednesday. locations south of
us 24 may even make a run at 70 degrees! this afternoon`s nbm run
came in with a forecast high of 67 at fort wayne on wednesday (which
is around the 75th percentile forecast), which would tie the record
high for february 18th set in 2017.
a more active pattern looks to resume with gusty winds, rain, and
maybe even some embedded thunder developing along and north of the
aforementioned warm front. above normal temperatures continue
through at least late next week with additional chances for rain
with a system passing north on thursday/friday.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 620 pm est sat feb 14 2026
rain associated with southern stream upper low will pass just
south of kfwa sun am. however, increasing low level moisture
coupled with diurnal cooling and light surface winds will likely
support some fog/br and stratus development. confidence is not
high given degree of low level dry air currently in place but
most guidance showing at least mvfr conditions by 12z with ifr
certainly possible. best chances for impacts will be at kfwa.
return to vfr expected by sun afternoon as nw flow advects drier
air back into the area.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...johnson
aviation...agd