216
fxus63 kiwx 091159
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
659 am est tue dec 9 2025
.key messages...
- light snow diminishing this morning. snow this evening
changing to rain overnight as temps warm. there may be a brief
period of freezing rain or sleet at the onset this evening,
with potential for slick roads. little to no snow accumulation
expected.
- a rain snow mix will change to all snow by wed afternoon and
evening. lake effect snow persists into wed night. snowfall
amounts around 1 inch or less expected, with the greatest
totals near lake michigan.
- turning much colder this weekend with light snow at times.
wind chills mainly zero to -15. heavy snow is not expected.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 419 am est tue dec 9 2025
challenges this forecast package include the onset and timing
of precipitation, types of precipitation including the chance
for brief freezing rain producing light icing, and snowfall
amounts starting this afternoon after the rain or mixed
precipitation changes to all snow. light snow was spreading into
northwest indiana, but was still west of south bend as of 345
am edt. bufkit soundings were showing a fairly dry subcloud
layer southwest of warsaw. given radar and surface observations,
trends, and the latest model data light snow is expected to
accumulate less than 1 inch mainly north of the toll road today.
the soundings also showed mid levels cooling well before the
next round of precipitation beginning later tonight. the cold
front should move across the area early wednesday with a fairly
rapid changeover from rain to snow. a brief period of freezing
rain is possible. most of the forecast area should change over
to snow by late morning with nearly all areas becoming just snow
by mid afternoon wednesday. given the long cold pattern since
late november and given the cold pavement temperatures, it is
likely there will be some slippery spots on rural roads where
temperatures have not been warm enough long enough to melt the
snow.
thursday is on the threshold of another long and cold period
with highs often below 20 degrees and lows in the single digits.
wind chills will often be from -15 to +5 degrees.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 648 am est tue dec 9 2025
vfr/mvfr conditions to start the period at both terminals, with
light snow at kfwa diminishing within the next couple hours.
mvfr ceilings (and possibly some br) build in late morning at
ksbn, then possibly into kfwa through this afternoon (less
confidence, 14-18z). winds strengthen out of the s-sw this
morning into the afternoon, with gusts to 25 to 30 knots
possible at both sites. llws early this morning at ksbn before
better mixing moves in, then at both sites later tonight. a
rain/snow mix develops at ksbn this evening before changing to
all rain overnight as temperatures warm. ifr ceilings are
likely at ksbn after 23z, with visibility to around 1 1/2sm as
rain and snow move in. slightly later arrival time at kfwa (3-6z
time frame), with mainly mvfr ceilings and potential for
mvfr/ifr visibilities as rain moves in.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.
gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est wednesday for
lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...skipper
aviation...mcd