263
fxus63 kiwx 110034
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
734 pm est tue feb 10 2026
.key messages...
- quiet and dry through the work week with near normal temperatures.
- the persistent snowpack will continue to gradually, slowly
melt this week.
- 20-40% chances for rain late saturday through the day sunday.
minor flooding possible where any snowpack remains.
- mild air returns early next week with highs in the 50s!
&&
.discussion...
issued at 134 pm est tue feb 10 2026
earlier, around midday, temperatures soared into the mid 40s across
the area due to strong waa. south of us 24, upper 40s to low 50s
were observed! this mild air is short lived though as a cold front
is currently moving through the area this afternoon. as of 18z, it
is draped from southwest lower michigan into northwest indiana and
is steadily moving southeast. in the wake of the front, temperatures
are falling and winds shift to the northwest. satellite imagery also
shows additional mid level clouds behind the front that are expected
to advect in tonight. with clouds in place overnight and northwest
winds around 10 mph, radiational cooling will be limited. lows will
be in the mid to upper 20s.
quiet and dry weather is expected to continue this week with zonal
flow and temperatures near normal. intermittent sunshine, a higher
sun angle, and temperatures right around freezing during the day
will aid in additional melting of the snowpack. high pressure over
the great lakes will suppress any chances for precipitation
through the work week. expect highs in the low to mid 30s over
the next few days, with a gradual warm up to the 40s by the
weekend. the persistent snowpack will continue to gradually melt
this week. considering that several inches of the surface
ground still frozen, any water from melt should runoff into area
creeks and rivers rather than soak into the ground.
the next chance for precipitation comes late saturday night into
sunday. recent gfs and ecmwf runs depict an upper level trough
developing over california, eventually becoming highly amplified and
potentially even cutoff from the jetstream over the southeast us
over the weekend. ensemble guidance still varies on exact track,
timing, and precipitation type(s). our forecast area getting any
precipitation also depends on the strength of building high pressure
over ontario this weekend. we may end up sandwiched between the
two systems and not get any precipitation at all. if it does
precipitate, precipitation type will be dependent on the time of
day (rain vs snow). as for now, have kept most of the slight to
chance pops as rain as the dominant precipitation type on
sunday given that temperatures should be above freezing. there
may be some rain/snow mix sunday morning in the far northeast.
depending on the amount of snowpack remaining, if it does rain
on sunday, minor flooding is possible.
into early next week, a strong upper level ridge is expected to
build across the central and eastern conus. there is increasing
confidence for above normal temperatures early next week given a
decent signal from long range model guidance. highs may potentially
even rise into the 50s depending on how much the snowpack
deteriorates over the upcoming week.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 629 pm est tue feb 10 2026
the cold front had moved south to the ohio river at the start of
the taf period. northwest to north winds prevailed over northern
indiana behind the front. dew points were slowly falling, and
were still around 30 degrees. post-frontal stratocu were
developing with the help of lake enhancement north of the
michigan line and over lake michigan. these clouds were moving
in from the northwest. large scale subsidence was above the
inversion and helping to prevent mixing above the base of the
inversion. the gfs appears too generous in trying to mix out
this layer. have favored the hrrr and rap which appear more
realistic and keeping the lower clouds under the inversion.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...johnson
aviation...skipper