334
fxus63 kiwx 120815
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
315 am est fri dec 12 2025
.key messages...
- dry for most areas into early saturday. some lake enhanced
snow showers are possible along the shores of lk mi with
generally an inch or less accumulation.
- period of light snow saturday afternoon (accumulations 1 to
maybe 3 inches), transitioning to mainly lake effect snow
showers saturday night into sunday (additional 1 to 3 inches
nw).
- much colder air arrives saturday, lingering into monday. wind
chills of -15 degrees f or lower are likely sunday morning
southwest of route 30.
- above freezing temperatures return tuesday through thursday
with chances for rain.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 314 am est fri dec 12 2025
back edge of light snow, associated with the first of several
clippers was moving across eastern il. far sw parts of the area
(mainly portions of white and cass county) did see some snow and
based on indot cameras probably received at least a few tenths of
new snow. dry conditions will dominate most areas through saturday
morning as the main energy with the active northern stream trough
passes mainly to the north of the area. a brief window of w to wnw
flow will setup, with marginal delta ts and limited
moisture/inversion heights resulting in a period of light snow
tonight into early saturday for portions of laporte, berrien and
maybe cass counties. accumulations, if any, should be an inch or
less.
stronger clipper system and associated punch of arctic air, will
take aim on the area late sat morning into the afternoon hours with
a burst of light synoptic snowfall. overall accumulations look to be
on the order of 1 to 2 inches (maybe a bit higher south of us-24).
as 850 mb temps plummet to -20 c or lower saturday night through
sunday night, a more pronounced lake response should commence with
moderate lake induced instability and inversion heights 8-10 kft.
currently leaning towards potential accumulations of at least 1 to 3
and some potential for higher amounts depending on the final fetch.
headlines may be needed in this time frame, but confidence not high
enough to hoist anything this far out.
lows in the single digits (above and below zero) are expected
saturday night, with the coldest temperatures across sw areas away
from the lake effect clouds and precip. sub zero wind chills are
still in store for the entire area with -5 to -10 f under the cloud
cover and a sharp gradient of -15 to -20 f where skies are clear. a
wind chill advisory will likely be needed for these areas in the
next issuance or 2. skies begin to clear out across a larger area
sunday night into early monday with overnight lows -5 to +5 f and
wind chills roughly -10 to -15 f.
a more pronounced shift in the patter will commence monday
night and persist through the end of the period with highs
climbing above freezing during the day to allow for melting of
the snowpack across the area. aiding in the process with be a
few chances for rain.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1233 am est fri dec 12 2025
clipper system currently passing safely south of the terminals
with just a 3kft stratus deck to contend with through the early
morning. brief scattering/lifting of the stratus deck is
anticipated during the day before another shortwave arrives
friday night. this wave will bring more mvfr stratus and
perhaps some light snow for ksbn being closer to lake mi and the
better forcing. much lower confidence in snow at kfwa and will
hold dry there for now.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm est
sunday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...fisher
aviation...agd