770
fxus63 kiwx 280958
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
558 am edt tue jul 28 2026
.key messages...
- widely scattered showers and storms will continue over the
next few hours with small hail and gusty winds.
- patchy dense fog possible this morning around daybreak.
- dry and seasonable tuesday through thursday.
- high swim risk today for southeast lake michigan beaches.
moderate swim risk on wednesday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 233 am edt tue jul 28 2026
a surface trough is pivoting through our area currently, sparking a
few widely scattered storms across northern indiana and northwest
ohio. any stronger storms may produce small hail and gusty winds,
although they are expected to stay below severe limits. this
activity is expected to push off to the southeast later this
morning, bringing precipitation chances to an end. a trailing cold
front is currently positioned from milwaukee, wi to muskegon, mi to
alpena, mi and is moving slowly south. this cold front will move
through our area later this morning from 12-18z. before the front
gets here, i would not be surprised if patchy dense fog attempts to
develop from 09-13z this morning. surface observations do not show
any fog yet but we will continue to monitor through the overnight
hours. surface conditions are decently favorable for fog with the
saturated ground from yesterday`s afternoon and evening storms.
winds are still a bit elevated at 5 to 10 mph out of the south and
will eventually switch to be coming from the west closer to
daybreak.
dry air, low humidity, sunshine, and cooler temperatures are
expected behind the front. behind the frontal passage, winds will
switch again to be coming from the north; a strong caa push will
allow for high temperatures to be below normal today only topping
out in the upper 70s to low 80s. locations closer to lake michigan
in northwest indiana and southwest lower michigan may not even get
out of the mid 70s today. the hrrr smoke model depicts wildfire
smoke moving in aloft today from active wildfires burning in the
pacific northwest. have adjusted sky cover up to 35% through
wednesday morning to account for hazy skies. no impacts to surface
air quality or visibilities are expected.
several more seasonable and dry days are expected wednesday and
tuesday as high pressure builds into the great lakes region midweek.
expect highs to gradually warm by a few degrees each day through
friday as the airmass moderates. it will be dry at least through
thursday; an incoming frontal system over the central plains will
move into the mid mississippi river valley by saturday, with
intermittent low chances (20-30%) for rain/storms returning to our
forecast area by late friday and into the weekend.
although it may look like a great day to head out to lake michigan
beaches today, as winds shift to become northerly, dangerous
swimming conditions are expected to develop for southeast lake
michigan beaches on tuesday. buoys already show waves of 2 to 3 feet
offshore of la porte county, in and berrien county, mi. waves will
reach 3 to 5 feet tuesday morning and will continue to build to 5 to
8 feet by this afternoon and evening following the cold frontal
passage. with direct onshore flow, strong structural, rip, and
longshore currents are expected. structural currents will be
especially strong on the north side of piers. stay out of the water
and stay off of the piers! beach hazards statements are in effect
from now through daybreak wednesday for la porte county, in and
berrien county, mi. a moderate swim risk is ahead for wednesday with
waves of 2 to 3 feet, especially in the morning. waves are
anticipated to diminish during the day and a welcome return to much
calmer conditions is ahead for thursday.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 554 am edt tue jul 28 2026
patchy dense fog and low level stratus have developed this
morning, fog is most prevalent across northwest indiana,
including at ksbn where visibilities have been around 6sm. fog
is expected to persist for the next few hours until about 13z.
the stratus will linger into the morning with high end ifr to
low end mvfr ceilings between 1000 to 2000 ft. winds have
shifted as expected to become northwesterly as a cold front is
about to come through the area from north to south across the
area. post frontal passage this afternoon, northwest winds will
increase to be sustained between 10 to 15 kts with gusts as high
as 25 kts (especially closer to lake michigan). skies will also
clear out this afternoon with vfr ceilings returning. wildfire
smoke is expected to filter in aloft today and tonight resulting
in hazy skies. no impacts to surface visibilities are expected
but cloud cover may need to be adjusted in future taf updates
depending on how obscured sky cover becomes.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement through wednesday morning for inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement through wednesday morning for miz177-
277.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 am edt wednesday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson