080
fxus63 kiwx 111728
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1228 pm est wed feb 11 2026
.key messages...
- not as warm today with temperatures in the 30s for most of
the area.
- there is a 20% chance of rain saturday night through sunday.
- increasing confidence in above-normal temperatures friday and
into early next week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 212 am est wed feb 11 2026
a departing cold front paired with incoming high pressure, currently
centered over nebraska, promote cold air advection this morning.
stratus is moving off to the southeast such that steady temperatures
in the mid-30s so far will plummet into the 20s momentarily. cloud
cover and high temperatures are areas of uncertainty today. as
stated above, cold air advection is strongest this morning before
850-mb ridging gradually builds in to present neutral advection.
pair this with mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures well into
the 30s are a likely outcome. on the other hand, if stratus returns
this afternoon from moisture flux off lake michigan or from status
upstream across northern wi and central mi, high temperatures could
be closer to freezing. strong subsidence from incoming high pressure
threatens to lock-in any stratus that develops. no clear concensus
on this in the model guidance, so, have stayed somewhat close to the
existing forecast but offer a period of mostly sunny skies this
morning followed by increasing clouds.
no significant hazardous weather concerns in this forecast package.
the main story will be above-normal temperatures. we continue to
monitor a developing low pressure over the southern mississippi
valley for the weekend that looks to present a 20% chance of
rain, primarily driven by ensemble guidance. the parent trough
responsible for cyclogenesis arrives onshore of the baja
tomorrow, thus, forecast confidence will be on the rise in
subsequent model runs. high pressure over the canadian prairie
and a departing upper- level low over british columbia will
influence the local storm track of the ms river valley low. this
low generally emerges amid a broad ridging pattern across the
central us which will push high temperatures into the 40s late
this week and into the weekend. early next week, highs in the
50s and even 60 appeared suspicious. however, amid all available
model guidance, our advertised highs are within the 50th-75th
percentile (e.g., with the 75th percentile, there is only a 25%
chance of a high temperature warmer than 53 degrees on tuesday).
this increases forecast confidence for the temperatures
forecast headed into next week.
don`t proclaim winter is over yet...this is northern indiana after
all.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1228 pm est wed feb 11 2026
with the area on the southern periphery of a trough and with
vorticity streaming by overhead, stratus was continuing to stream
southeast from lake mi, which may have been enhancing cloud
formation. a thin layer of moisture potentially from lake mi as well
as from snowmelt continues to remain trapped under the inversion in
some capacity through the taf period on rap time-sections so mvfr
conditions are expected to continue for a few hours this afternoon
at sbn, and a little longer at fwa, before vfr conditions take over.
winds continue to come in out of the northwest predominantly, but
wouldn`t be surprised for times of westerly winds with the area on
the periphery of cloud cover. a sinking mixing height and a slowly
weakening low level jet with surface high pressure pushing in allows
for weakening of sustained winds and gusts by mid afternoon or
evening. also, cannot rule out a period of reduced visibility
potentially into mvfr with haze from snowmelt occurring especially
as those winds are reduced this afternoon. sbn was able to drop to
7mi from 10mi so haze was there and it was at the iwx office as
well, but winds were around 10 kts sustained and clear skies as
opposed to overcast or broken so we`ll have to see what happens when
winds dip below 10 kts today if vis does as well.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...brown
aviation...roller