251
fxus63 kiwx 210505
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
105 am edt thu may 21 2026
.key messages...
- cooler and dry continues today with highs only in the 60s.
- next chance for rain and a few storms arrive later friday
afternoon into the evening. while thunderstorms are possible,
severe storms are not expected.
- gradual warming with highs in the 70s to low 80s with periods
of showers and thunderstorms this holiday weekend into the
beginning of next week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 208 pm edt wed may 20 2026
with a bermuda high pattern, there will be plenty of moisture
streaming into the conus. it is then up to the northern stream
or southern stream flow to bring a low pressure system into the
area to bring times of rain or a high pressure system into the
area to provide times of drier weather. as surface high pressure
moves into the northern great lakes the rest of today, east
winds will tend to keep the area devoid of rain, but some
cloudiness cannot be ruled out. the area of high pressure moves
into southeastern canada on friday and that opens the door for
low pressure to come in from the southern us and provide times
of rain to the area beginning later friday afternoon and into
the overnight. we`ll also have a period of large scale ascent
along the warm front as it moves through the area. shear will
still be lacking, but an area of mucape traverses locations
south of us-24 friday night into saturday and that may provide
an opportunity for non- severe thunderstorms. sfc dew points are
expected to surpass 60 degrees and so it`ll feel fairly humid
again and some locally heavy rain will be possible, especially
with the convective element available. southwestern flow comes
back into the area later saturday night into sunday morning and
may provide another opportunity for rain and some thunderstorms,
but again shear looks to be lacking restricting severity of the
thunderstorms. sfc dew points are again expected to surpass 60f
during this time bringing back the humidity and additional
chances for locally heavy rain. behind this cold front for early
sunday, another high pressure system keeps the area dry as it
moves through the southern and central great lakes area. it may
be that the front is still stalled out south of the area on
wednesday to keep us out of any rain chances as attempts for
return flow take place. it could be possible that pop showers
and storms form later tuesday and potentially wednesday given
some better instability, but areas of forcing are hard to nail
down this far out.
a warming trend is expected to take place with today and
thursday being the coolest and driest days, but temperatures
will be around 70 degrees again as soon as saturday and have the
chance to slowly trend warmer and may reach 80 degrees around
midweek next week.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 101 am edt thu may 21 2026
vfr conditions expected through this taf period. easterly winds
with gusts around 20 kts today.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...beach hazards statement until 1 am cdt early this morning for
inz103.
oh...none.
mi...beach hazards statement until 2 am edt early this morning for
miz177-277.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 am edt early this morning for
lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...roller
aviation...andersen