855
fxus63 kiwx 131725
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1225 pm est fri feb 13 2026
.key messages...
- above normal temperatures through the upcoming 7 days.
- there is a 20-40% for light rain along and south of us 30
saturday night into sunday morning.
- a more active pattern arrives wednesday through friday next
week with periodic rain chances (30-50%) and gusty winds.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 213 am est fri feb 13 2026
dry and trending warmer through early next week with the local area
generally in between shortwaves in split flow. the exception could
be saturday night when the far northern fringes of a low pressure
system tracking east through the lower ms valley and deep south
potentially brings a period of light rain to areas mainly south of
the us 30 corridor (20-40%). the main story will be the gradually
warming temperatures as low level flow trajectories take on a more
southerly component throughout.
a more active pattern (mild, occasionally wet and windy) looks to
take shape during the mid-late week periods given good ensemble
agreement in several shortwaves and associated sfc reflections
ejecting east-northeast through the midwest and great lakes in moist
southwest flow. the initial warm front on wednesday could push far
enough north to bring temps into the 60s for at least southern
portions of the area with rain and perhaps some embedded thunder
developing along and north of the warm front. signal for a more
pronounced low center and shortwave then brings additional rain
chances and wind sometime thursday and friday, though details
regarding track/intensity/timing remain uncertain at this forecast
range.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 1224 pm est fri feb 13 2026
few to potentially scattered mid level clouds move through in the
wnw mid-upper flow and with the developing inversion potentially
trapping any meltwater from snow, this would make stratus or fog
possible tonight. lav guidance seems to indicate that fwa has
favorable cross-over temps and while sbn doesn`t quite hit the
threshold, it still could if it radiates cooler with the few clouds
around. bufkit also shows shallow moisture at both sbn and fwa
indicative of fog, but one or both of those sites could just have
shallow fog given the depth of the moisture profile. aviation
guidance indicates some fog would be possible, mainly at sbn, to the
tune of mvfr magnitude. will put a tempo group in for sbn with mvfr
visby in line with aviation guidance. as happened yesterday, this
fog could end up at fwa instead though, and that`s what the namnest
shows.
winds will continue to remain out of the southwest for the taf
period with winds staying at or below 10 kts, strongest this
afternoon.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...roller