174
fxus63 kiwx 090730
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
330 am edt thu apr 9 2026
.key messages...
- above normal temperatures once again today but cooler on
friday. temperatures moderate back into the mid-upper 70s
again for early next week.
- rain chances this morning (30-50%) across northwest indiana
into southwest lower michigan. showers should become more
isolated with southeast extent late morning into this
afternoon.
- rain showers increase in coverage tonight from nw indiana into
southern lower michigan and drop southeast into ne indiana/nw
ohio on friday. greatest potential of rainfall amounts in
excess of 0.50" north of us route 6. some secondary rises on
area rivers possible, but overall hydro impacts from this
additional rain is expected to be minor.
- much above normal temperatures expected early next week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 330 am edt thu apr 9 2026
a band of rain showers continues to progress slowly southeast early
this morning from west central michigan into northeast illinois.
these showers are developing along pre-frontal forcing axis where a
narrow axis of low level moisture convergence is aiding showers.
these showers are also developing along southern periphery of upper
height falls which are centered across the northern great lakes
this morning. a secondary band of broken rain showers is also
noted immediately behind sfc front from southwest wisconsin
to northern lake michigan vicinity. through time this morning,
the stronger mid/upper level forcing associated with ontario
upper level wave will shift across eastern great lakes/southeast
canada as the primary upper level trough lifts northeast across
the james bay area. rain shower coverage is expected to be
limited late this morning into this afternoon as this larger
scale forcing becomes more divorced from slowing pre-frontal
moisture axis/associated cold front. did keep some slight chance
pops in place this afternoon as a result. thunder potential
this afternoon appears relatively low given limited instability
and lack of larger scale forcing. some weak surface based cape
of 200-500 j/kg may set up across central portions of the
forecast area this afternoon so cannot completely discount an
isolated storm. perhaps best chance of an isolated storm would
be if a differential heating zone can setup across far ne in/nw
ohio with lesser cloud cover far southeast. otherwise, for today
it will be mild with highs well into the 70s to the south of
the stalling frontal zone. breezy/windy conditions should also
develop again along and south of us route 24 where these warmer
temps will promote some better mixing.
some uptick in shower coverage is expected this evening as a broad
upstream mid level trough begins to induce stronger low level
flow over the stalled boundary across the southern great lakes.
this setup should eventually turn into a southeast sagging
boundary/low level fgen forcing scenario late tonight into
friday as the mid level trough tracks across the great lakes
region. weak mid level lapse rates should limit thunder
potential tonight into friday, with best chance of few embedded
storms late this evening/early overnight. sharpening
frontogenesis forcing tonight/early friday will have the
potential to produce at least a narrow axis of 0.50"+ of
rainfall north of us route 6 corridor, but lesser rain amounts
are expected for southern locations as stronger frontal forcing
should be migrating across the eastern great lakes friday
morning. area hydrographs do show some response to this
forecasted rain, but overall response is expected to be minor in
nature and currently not anticipated to have significant impact
on the ongoing river flooding.
seasonable temps are expected on saturday due to friday frontal
passage, with temperatures expected to be near seasonable levels.
mid level height rises in wake of friday mid level trough should
yield quiet weather conditions at least through first half of the
weekend. the second half of the weekend will feature a return of
stronger low level warm advection with more favored short wave track
expected from the central plains to the upper ms valley/northern
great lakes. by sunday night into monday, mid to high chance pops
(40-50%) will be maintained as central conus theta-e ridge shifts
across the region. some uncertainty still exists with shower chances
during this period due to likelihood stronger forcing will be
displaced northwest/north of the local area.
for next week, medium range guidance is in decent agreement that
split flow across eastern pacific will yield a stronger southern
stream upper trough which will eventually reach central conus by
next wednesday. confidence remains high in much above normal
temperatures continuing into tuesday with broad warm sector across
southern great lakes/ohio valley. weaker embedded short waves are
possible early next week in stronger westerly flow regime that could
induce periodic shower/storm chances considering some steepening of
mid level lapse rates anticipated during this period. present
indications would suggest perhaps best chances of more organized
convective chance by middle of next week when the western conus
upper trough ejects northeast. however, recent trend in ensemble
guidance points toward downstream upper ridging potentially holding
stronger across eastern third of the country into middle of next
week which could allow for some dampening of this upper trough
across the great lakes region.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 202 am edt thu apr 9 2026
a few bands of light rain showers noted on regional radar
mosaic imagery early this morning. the first of these bands at
06z extends from west central illinois into west central
michigan with a secondary band from southwest wisconsin to
northern lake michigan more tied to primary cold front. an axis
of pre-frontal moisture should bring some light rain showers to
ksbn toward daybreak, but confidence in maintenance of these
rain showers to the southeast of ksbn is on the lower side as
stronger upper height falls associated with ontario upper low
just glances the southern great lakes region. progression of the
pre-frontal moisture axis and cold front will continue to slow
across the southern great lakes this morning with low confidence
in extent of shower development after 14z into this afternoon as
upper forcing becomes more displaced from these low level
ingredients. some low probabilities were maintained for isolated
afternoon thunderstorm at kfwa where some weak surface based
instability on the order of 200-500 j/kg is expected.
by this evening confidence begins to increase in showers and
isolated storms developing from northern illinois across
extreme northern indiana as low level flow ramps up once again
and interacts with the stalled boundary. confidence remains
medium in showers impacting ksbn through this forecast valid
period as surface boundary placement could place highest rain
shower potential north of ksbn. otherwise, breezy conditions
expected today as southwest winds persist at kfwa in advance of
the boundary. low level wind shear has also been maintained
early this morning with 45-50 knot flow being maintained at 2k
feet.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for lmz043-
046.
&&
$$
discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili