944
fxus63 kiwx 031822
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
222 pm edt fri apr 3 2026
.key messages...
- a flood watch is in effect for a portion of southern michigan
and northern indiana. additional rain and storms tonight
through saturday will worsen any ongoing flooding.
- isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening become
more widespread overnight. a few storms may be severe.
- on saturday, there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms
over northwest ohio.
-colder saturday night through at least tuesday with primarily
dry conditions.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 218 pm edt fri apr 3 2026
a modest cold front is draped northeast to southwest from western
lake erie through about lafayette. wind direction (southeast) and
dew points in the 60s are the primary indicators of this front that
serves as the focus for isolated thunderstorms prior to sunset. a
subtle cap is in place north of this boundary, but through time as
the boundary gradually lifts north, the cap lifts permitting these
isolated storms to develop. compared to yesterday, shear is modest
at about 25-35 knots while instability south of the boundary is
plentiful around 1,500 j/kg (mucape). lapse rates and upper level
support are lackluster which limits confidence in isolated
thunderstorms during the remaining daytime hours. forecast soundings
have a slight favor toward hail as the primary hazard, but the
freezing layer remains somewhat elevated and recent storms have
struggled to achieve much depth/height.
tonight, showers and storms will become more widespread as a 45-knot
850mb jet takes shape across eastern il and western in. this will
permit lines or clusters of storms to take shape and hazards will
transition to damaging wind and heavy rain. instability wanes quickly
early thursday morning, limiting the overall duration of any severe
storms. flow becomes boundary-parellel which increases the risk of
prolonged heavy rain beneath training storms. forecast soundings
depict deep cloud tops, minimal 500mb dew point depressions, and
continued pwats near the daily max. recent rainfall of 2 to 4 inches
between the us 30 and us 24 corridors, along with rain last night of
over 1" in southwest mi further tipped the scale in favor of a flood
watch. northwest ohio was considered, but 24-hour rain totals ending
this morning were minimal and the cold front doesn`t arrive there
until after daybreak saturday. nw ohio could be added in the future
if conditions warrant. within the watch, about 1" to perhaps 1.5" of
rain is expected with the greatest totals over michiana.
turning now to the marginal risk of severe thunderstorms saturday. a
cold front will be moving from west to east across our area during
the day. ahead of the front, in northwest ohio, destablization may
occur to permit a strengthening of storms or development of storms
in the warm sector. instability will once again be a limiting factor,
but low-level lapse rates and strong shear could permit damaging
wind gusts. ahead of the front, a few wind gusts near 40 mph are
possible.
sharply colder saturday night through at least tuesday with a break
from seemingly daily thunderstorms. a trough takes shape which
allows a clipper to race through monday, brining a 20% chance of
showers. zonal flow takes shape by wednesday allowing for
temperatures to moderate back toward 60 degrees. the weather pattern
could become active once again late week.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z saturday/...
issued at 135 pm edt fri apr 3 2026
residual stalled frontal boundary across northeast indiana will
likely serve as a focal point for additional showers and
thunderstorm development this afternoon. low level winds will
back this evening in response to large scale upper trough taking
shape across central conus. this will help shift
thermal/moisture gradient back to the north tonight with
increasing coverage of showers and storms expected after 00z.
the focus later in the night should shift across far northern in
following this frontal progression. an instability gradient will
be sprawled across northern indiana, with greater instability
magnitudes across kfwa vicinity. however, given advective
forcing strength and moisture convergence taking shape, thunder
is possible at both terminals. best chances of thunder at kfwa
should be in the 00z to 06z period, and may be more focused in
the 04z to 08z window at ksbn. a lull in greater precip coverage
is possible later tonight before stronger mid/upper forcing and
frontal forcing shifts in from the west on saturday. in terms of
cigs, some improvement to mvfr cigs expected at ksbn this
afternoon, but should deteriorate again this evening as
increased low level moisture is drawn northward over the
boundary. winds will shift to the south on saturday as warm
front lifts north of terminals, with peak afternoon gusts of 25
to 30 knots possible.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch from 11 pm edt /10 pm cdt/ this evening through
saturday afternoon for inz005>009-012>015-017-018-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...none.
mi...flood watch from 11 pm edt this evening through saturday
afternoon for miz078>080-177-277.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...brown
aviation...marsili