630
fxus63 kiwx 071003
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
603 am edt tue jul 7 2026
.key messages...
- seasonable temperatures are expected through the remainder of
the week. temperatures and humidity levels may creep upward
late this weekend into early next week.
- dry conditions are expected today through early thursday.
chances of showers and storms will increase later thursday
into friday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 335 am edt tue jul 7 2026
the very slow moving mid/upper level trough that has produced
multiple days of scattered showers and storms is now slowly pushing
across the eastern great lakes region this morning. a broad
upper vort filament extends to the southwest across central
indiana, trailing back to a closed low feature across northeast
arkansas. mid/upper level ridging will begin to build back into
the southern great lakes region in the wake of this broad
negative upper height anomaly with an associated broad low level
anticyclone building in from the northwest through wednesday.
the progression of this wave pattern and northerly low level
flow east of the ridge axis will allow for a drier airmass
across central/northern lower mi (~0.60 pwats in 00z apx raob)
to advect southward across the local area. this drier airmass
combined with broad synoptic scale subsidence will provide
pleasant conditions today. highs should be 2 to 5 degrees warmer
than yesterday based mostly on increased insolation.
light/calm winds and mainly clear skies are expected tonight as
anticyclone builds east. may need to watch for some patchy fog
potential across far ne in/nw oh early wednesday on eastern
periphery of the high building eastward. some high clouds may also
clip southern/southeast portion of the forecast area in association
with eastward migration of the lower ms valley cut-off low which
could also help limit fog formation.
wednesday should largely feature similar conditions to that of
tuesday with perhaps another degree or two of warming with
modification of low level airmass in subsidence regime. dew points
will remain in check in low-mid 60s however.
for wednesday night into thursday, an upper level short wave
currently lifting across id/western mt will help deamplify western
conus upper ridge and this short wave is expected to dampen across
the northern great lakes wed pm. dry conditions will persist through
wednesday night as better low level moisture transport remains
confined to the plains into the upper ms valley. best moisture
convergence across the central plains could give rise to another
convectively enhanced vort max shifting eastward into il/in thursday
afternoon into friday. at the same time, guidance is in general
agreement that upstream western conus ridge will start to amplify
again which raises some question as to how far north and east
pocket of better instability can reach during this period from
the mid ms valley. this low amplitude flattened flow pattern
will provide some better westerly shear by the late wed/thu
period, but instability magnitudes is an item of lower
confidence with possibility that effective low level boundary
and reservoir of better instability could be confined west and
southwest of the local area. more veered westerly deep layer
flow by thursday could yield some weak propagation vectors, and
with high pwat airmass in place by this time, cannot rule out
some decent rainfall amounts late thursday/friday. however, some
possibility exists that areas west/southwest of the local area
may be most favored for heavier rainfall.
some low pops were maintained into saturday given uncertainty in
evolution of any convective enhancement to short waves,
although by this time, bulk of guidance suggests drying trend as
effective frontal boundary may slip south of the area. medium
range guidance continues to suggest more pronounced
amplification of the central conus ridge by late weekend into
early next week that should support a warming trend toward the
end of the period with some increase in humidity. it is possible
some upward adjustments may be needed to temps by next monday
with deterministic/ensemble guidance starting to come into a
little better agreement by next monday regarding this scenario.
after monday, confidence begins to wane as ensemble spreads
become more dramatic in the handling of the extent of strength
of waves topping this ridge affecting the longitudinal placement
of the ridge axis by the middle of next week. mainly dry
conditions have been maintained for the weekend into monday
when guidance exhibits this stronger agreement in ridge
placement.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 600 am edt tue jul 7 2026
an upper level ridge will continue to slowly build across the
western great lakes this morning, with large scale subsidence
persisting today and tonight. dry weather is expected through
this period. light winds and lingering low level moisture has
allowed some patchy shallow fog to develop, particularly along
and south of us route 24. some very brief mvfr vsby restrictions
are possible at kfwa to begin the period, but otherwise vfr
conditions are expected through the period. cannot completely
discount some patchy shallow fog once again early wednesday
morning, but confidence is too low to include with the 12z tafs.
a surface anticyclone building into the region will provide
light north winds less than 10 knots today, becoming light
and variable/calm this evening.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili