584
fxus63 kiwx 210632
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
232 am edt sat mar 21 2026
.key messages...
- above to much above normal temperatures into early sunday,
before cooler (but still somewhat above normal) temperatures
arrive for early next week.
- a dry pattern overall with chances (20-50%) for showers and
isolated storms on sunday, and then again toward the end of
next week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 230 am edt sat mar 21 2026
despite the cold start this morning (mid 30s to mid 40s),
temperatures are expected to rebound into this afternoon as the
cool n and ne flow quickly shifts to more southerly and waa
commences. by late afternoon, the area will be in the 60s ne to
at least the mid 70s sw, with the potential for one more day
of overachieving highs with some potential for a stray 80 degree
being recorded. will defer any further temp increases to the day
shift to see how fast the waa gets going.
some changes in the forecast wrt temps, precip and thunder
chances late tonight into sunday as trends suggest a somewhat
faster arrival to the northern stream trough and associated cold
front. highs sunday are likely to occur near/shortly after 12z
for the nw quarter to maybe third of the area with the front
progressing southeast through the day. capping ahead of the
front will likely limit/prevent convection from forming ahead of
the front until maybe the us-24 corridor when some isolated
showers and storms could occur in the 18-21z time frame. a band
of showers then occurs post frontal to bring maybe a tenth or 2
of rainfall to some areas. given all these factors, the threat
for severe weather in the se appears to have lowered even
further with the new swody2 outlook trimming the nw extent of
the marginal risk. pops have been capped at no more than upper
chc for the time being, but some likely pops may be warranted
post frontal based on some hints in a few of the models.
a nw flow will dominate the start of the work week with highs
near or below normal (coldest near lake mi) before some
moderation back somewhat above normal into mid week. a strong
upper level ridge will expand across the southern us, resulting
in any gulf moisture being cut off to a series of weak
disturbances passing to our north. yet another cold front
arrives thursday/friday sending temps back down once again.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 121 am edt sat mar 21 2026
high pressure passes by to the north of the area into the morning
pointing to east winds at the surface and dry air. this gives way to
a low pressure system reaching the northern great lakes by the end
of the taf period, which allows south/southwest winds to take over
for the latter half of the day. within this scenario, expect vfr to
be predominant. however, those east winds do have a chance to bring
some lake erie air in here and could cause some vis reductions this
morning as we`re also seeing with below 10 mi vis in nw oh. also,
expect a low level jet to slide by to the northeast allowing 10 kt
sustained winds this afternoon and gusts to around 20 kts. this may
be enough to just retain sustained into the 10s of kts.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...fisher
aviation...andersen/roller