066
fxus63 kiwx 081729
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1229 pm est mon dec 8 2025
.key messages...
- cold wind chills tonight from -1f to +5f.
- seasonably mild temperatures with periods of snow and a rain
mix into early wednesday. travel impacts appear limited.
- turning very cold again late this weekend with highs only in
the teens.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 415 am est mon dec 8 2025
the duration of the cold airmass has reached day 11 today (since
november 27th). the fort wayne temperature has averaged only
18.8 degrees so far this month with has been an incredible 15.5
degrees below normal. the enso pattern is "...transitioning
from a weak la nina..." into 2026 per cpc update. given this
pattern and given persistence, another arctic air intrusion is
expected to arrive wednesday. the temperatures early this
morning have been dipping below zero once again. with this
pattern and airmass in place, the forecast area is on the
threshold of this next cold intrusion. rwis data/traffic wise
indicated pavement temperatures were in the teens. given the
low sun angle for december, the incredibly large "cold anomaly"
ongoing ground temps and current snow cover, any snow or ice
melting on roads should be limited through tuesday.
these cold ground conditions will provide an interesting
unfolding of the travel conditions tuesday night into wednesday
as surface air temperatures rise briefly above freezing. some
icing is possible on roads before the pavement temperatures rise
briefly above freezing on rural and secondary roads. readings
should drop below freezing wednesday evening and stay well
below freezing into early next week. chances form mainly light
snow will persist through the weekend as several weak
disturbances top the upstream ridge and race southeast into the
forecast area per 00z gfs. heavy snow is not expected, but there
could be travel issues given the light to possibly moderate
snow falling on secondary and rural roads.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z tuesday/...
issued at 1221 pm est mon dec 8 2025
no flight concerns for the next 12 hours or so as we await the
next in a series of systems that looks to graze the area after
6z tue. sfc low will track well north of the area (lk superior)
with a warm front edging through late tonight into tuesday. an
area of isentropic lift will exists along the front, with models
continuing to bring some light snow potential mainly across
lower mi, with a narrow window of impacts from the snow possible
at ksbn. maintained the prob30 mention for now 8-12z tue to
handle the currently limited potential. behind the precip area,
cigs should drop to at least mvfr and quite possibly ifr as waa
continues and traps low level moisture (at ksbn). latest update
reflects this thinking. kfwa will likely miss the brunt of the
system in terms of impacts with maybe a period of some high end
mvfr cigs after 12z tue.
at both sites, winds will increase tuesday out of the sw with
gusts to 25 kts possible.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 10 pm est
tuesday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...skipper
aviation...fisher