276
fxus63 kiwx 240527
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
127 am edt tue mar 24 2026
.key messages...
- warming trend tuesday through thursday.
- a strong cold front brings chances (50-80%) for showers and
storms thursday afternoon into thursday evening. there is the
potential for a few strong to severe storms.
- colder air will funnel back in on friday, with gradual
moderation next weekend.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 125 pm edt mon mar 23 2026
typical late march temperature rollercoaster pattern will continue
through the period with the next good opportunity (50-80%) for
showers and storms thursday afternoon-evening.
it will be chilly tonight as surface high pressure moves through.
temperatures then recover nicely tuesday through thursday as return
southerly flow develops behind the exiting sfc high, with southwest
conus upper ridging also expanding east toward the lower-middle ms
river valleys during this time. proximity to a strong pacific jet
stream to the north may bring some mid-high level clouds through at
times which may affect how warm we get each day. opted not to stray
away from the nbm as a result.
attention thursday afternoon into thursday evening will turn to
chances for convection, potentially severe, as a mid level shortwave
drives a frontal wave through the area. this system appears to have
similar traits to yesterday`s front that produced scattered large
hail and wind reports across central in/oh. westerly flow aloft
should advect an impressive elevated mixed layer (eml) and
associated steep mid level lapse rates into the region. there will
also be ample shear and flow through the column to sustain updrafts
with upscale growth potential. the differences this go around
locally with be more favorable diurnal timing, slightly better low
level moisture return (sfc dewpoints near 60), and thus greater
instability magnitudes. questions at this fcst range are the exact
timing of the front and when/if strong capping at the base of the
eml breaches given somewhat modest frontal forcing. lots of
uncertainty, but this period bears watching for severe convection
given the favorable timing, shear and instability.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 126 am edt tue mar 24 2026
high pressure pushing through continues to keep the area dry and in
vfr with plenty of dry air below 850 mb. on the back side of the
high pressure system, winds turn more southwesterly during the
afternoon. the relative strength of the low level jet and given the
fact we`re in a waa pattern at that point, will keep sustained winds
as the driver of wind intensity instead of gusts.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...roller