397
fxus63 kiwx 170712
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
212 am est tue feb 17 2026
.key messages...
- above normal temperatures with highs in the 50s and 60s
through thursday.
- rain showers are likely tonight into wednesday morning, and
again thursday into thursday night.
- cooler by this weekend with chances for rain and snow showers.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 212 am est tue feb 17 2026
slightly stronger southerly flow on the backside of sfc high
pressure, and areas of mid-high clouds in a broad waa regime,
should reduce the fog threat for most this morning when compared
to yesterday. another mild/dry day otherwise today as shortwave
ridging overspreads in advance of an upper trough and sfc low
lifting northeast into the upper midwest and western great lakes
tonight into wednesday. a relatively deep corridor of moist
isentropic ascent will precede this wave under the left exit
region of an incoming ~160 kt upper jet later this evening
through wednesday morning. better low level convergence near a
developing frontal zone primarily sets up just north of the
area, though still expect at least scattered/numerous showers
given the sufficient moisture advection and incoming steeper mid
level lapse rates. rainfall amounts should overall remain on
the light side (<0.20", heaviest north), though localized
heavier amounts cannot be ruled out in any gusty convective
elements wed am. dry slot and associated warm sector should
become well established then by wed pm with breezy/mild
conditions (near record high temps) behind a dry line type
feature.
additional chances for rain and perhaps some thunder will increase
thursday into thursday night as a secondary shortwave emerges out of
the rockies and rotates a deepening sfc low northward into the
western and northern great lakes. a colder, more seasonable, air
mass will then rotate in behind this system later friday into the
weekend. several shortwaves will also rotate through in this colder
cyclonic flow with periodic chances for snow showers.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 102 am est tue feb 17 2026
a sheared upper level vort max across the great lakes will allow
sfc trough/cold front to make some southward progress across the
southern great lakes overnight. however, sheared nature of this
wave and upstream mid level ridging building from the west will
not allow this boundary to make significant southward push as
it loses its integrity across central/southern lower michigan.
given relatively weak pre-frontal flow, some concern for patchy
fog formation this morning, but warm advection induced mid
clouds and broad nature of warm advection will make this
potential less widespread than yesterday morning. did continue
trend of previous taf issuance with the 06z issuance in a more
optimistic vsby/cig forecast (short duration mvfr, tempo ifr).
confidence in ifr conditions continues to diminish some with
time, so will continue to assess this potential overnight for
possible amendments. poor mixing today will keep sfc wind speeds
generally less than 10 knots. for tonight, attention turns to
more potent upper level trough across central conus with more
appreciable low level moisture advection after 00z. some
advection wing rain is possible in the evening for ksbn
vicinity, with more widespread rain and greater potential of
more ifr cigs after this forecast valid period into early
wednesday.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili