120
fxus63 kiwx 192329
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
729 pm edt thu mar 19 2026
.key messages...
- large temperature swings are expected through next week with
highs ranging from the 40s to the 70s.
- overall dry pattern through next week with just a low chance
of rain on sunday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 214 pm edt thu mar 19 2026
typical spring temperature roller coaster is the main story for this
package as our region continues to reside between strong western
conus ridge and persistent quebec troughing. general w/nw flow on
the downstream side of strong ridge also portends an overall dry
period but there will be a few chances for light precip with the
more robust clipper systems. morning showers driven by initial
waa/isentropic ascent have now exited our eastern cwa and expect dry
conditions through tonight. next shortwave arrives by late tonight
though with increasing warm/moist air advection aloft and tightening
surface gradient. this should keep lows around 40f. best midlevel
cva and left exit upper jet forcing bypasses to our ne during the
day friday. trailing cold front could spark a few sprinkles
(particularly east) but chances for measureable precip appear very
low given ne displacement of forcing and relatively dry/stable
environment. even latest nbm pulled back on slight chance pop`s and
have therefore capped forecast at 10% everywhere. temps ahead of
this cold front will surge into the low 70s across our southern
zones while an earlier passage keeps highs in the 50s across mi. it
will also be on the breezy side ahead of the front with gusts up to
30 mph once diurnal mixing kicks in.
temps drop into the 30s fri night but rebound quickly on sat, well
into the 60s as surface anticyclone shifts se and waa increases
again. highs on sun surge near 80f ahead of the next system with a
brief period of strong/deep sw flow. very similar system with better
forcing passing to the ne but chances for rain are a little better
with this system given some better moisture and stronger ascent.
could even be a few thunderstorms but severe risk is very low. temps
plummet again behind the system with highs on mon only in the 40s.
some additional low chances for light precip next week but overall
dry pattern persists with temps climbing near 70f once again by
thu.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z saturday/...
issued at 727 pm edt thu mar 19 2026
a theta-e plume passes through the area between now and friday
evening with a cold front pushing through midday friday into the
afternoon. plenty of dry air causes a dry frontal passage and will
keep flight conditions in vfr as a result. winds gradually veer
through the period with southeast winds becoming southwest in the
morning and becoming northwest during the afternoon. because the
front is already bisecting the area around midday, mixing likely is
stunted at sbn, but given this timing, it is possible that fwa
gets into favorable mixing. this allows the best chance for 25
kt gusts to be at fwa. while llws may be possible, it`s
residence time and intensity appears too low to include in these
tafs.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...agd
aviation...roller