191
fxus63 kiwx 191149
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
649 am est thu feb 19 2026
.key messages...
- highs in the 60s today are within 5 degrees of record levels.
- thunderstorms will be possible today. a mostly marginal risk
for severe weather exists mainly during this afternoon and
into the evening with gusty winds, hail, and possibly a
tornado as the main threats.
- cooler air arrives friday with snow becoming more likely,
especially by sunday morning.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 159 am est thu feb 19 2026
one last day of much above normal temperatures in this stretch
of warmth within a southwesterly flow aloft as a trough pushes
southeasterly into the region with highs today in the mid 50s to
mid 60s for southern portions of our cwa. a few convective
showers with a few rumbles of thunder will be possible this
morning especially over our southwestern and southern portions
of the cwa but the better chances for thunderstorms will be
later this afternoon into the evening hours as the better lift
associated with the trough pushes into the area. current 07z
regional radar imagery does have a couple of thunderstorms
developing over central il over vermilion and champaign
counties. these will slowly push to the northeast into our
southwestern counties over the next several hours this morning.
current dew points over the area are in the low 30s but we will
see an influx in moisture pushing northward into the area today
with dew points increasing into the mid 50s especially for our
southern tier of counties later this afternoon.
spc currently has a majority of our cwa under a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms for their latest day 1 convective
outlook. there is also a fairly small sliver of slight risk in
place for our most southern tier of counties. the main threats
will be gusty outflow winds, small hail, and even a tornado or
two would be possible. the one limiting factor seems to be the
instability as surface based cape is very limited but the
mucape values are around 300-450 j/kg. bulk shear values will be
sufficient for some organization with 35 to 45 knot values. the
most likely time for any strong to severe thunderstorms will be
from about 3 pm to 9 pm est.
colder temperatures will begin to push into the region from the
northwest on friday and highs will only get into the low 40s to
low 50s for our far southeastern portion of the area. lows by
saturday morning will get back down into the low 30s to upper
20s. light rain showers mainly north of us-30 will begin to
change over to snow showers by friday evening. high temperatures
over the weekend will remain in the low to mid 30s with lows in
the upper 20s each morning. another trough will move through
late saturday through sunday and will bring another chance for
snow showers across the area. this will also bring another
reinforcing shot of colder air for monday with highs in the
lower 30s and low temperatures on monday and tuesday mornings
only in the low 20s to upper teens. of course, this will not
seem so bad compared to the very cold we had at the beginning of
the month. broad ridging across the central conus will begin to
push eastward into the region once again by tuesday and we will
see another warming trend into the middle of next week with
highs warming into the mid and upper 40s with a few locations
near 50 degrees on wednesday and thursday. chances for more
rainfall will increase for the end of next week with another
trough making residence over the great lakes region.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z friday/...
issued at 648 am est thu feb 19 2026
nose of elevated instability and steeper lapse rates has been
aiding in the development of thunderstorms, many produce copious
amounts of hail. luckily, the main storm passed north of kfwa
and are well se of ksbn. hi-res models captured this setup and
hrrr hints of redevelopment further north as the effective
boundary edges north, possibly giving ksbn a shot at some storms
later this morning. left overall tafs similar to 6z, but will
need to closely monitor. another challenge for mainly kfwa will
be a large area of ifr/lifr cigs across central indiana into
portions of ohio that may very well clip kfwa. again if this
does edge north will need to amend but impacts of the convection
may slow the northward progress for a bit.
confidence is low on additional convective potential late this
afternoon into this evening from impacts of any earlier
convection. trends suggest central in into central oh may be the
best area. kept shower mention at both locations for now, with
plenty of time to update in later forecasts.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...andersen
aviation...fisher