252
fxus63 kiwx 221040
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 am edt wed apr 22 2026
.key messages...
- strong storms late today and tonight with gusty winds mainly
north of i-80 from 3p to 9p.
- unseasonably mild today through friday with highs in the mid
70s to around 80 degrees.
- more storms friday and early next week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 301 am edt wed apr 22 2026
a front extended across far southern lower michigan. weak
surface convergence was occurring just north of the michigan
border along the front. storms will develop again this
afternoon is this area. surfaced based capes may reach 1500 to
2500 j/kg. the spc has placed much of the forecast area in a
marginal severe storm risk for wind gusts to 50 mph and hail up
to 3/4 inch. in the interim, patchy fog was developing north of
the michigan border. after coordination with grand rapids, will
continue to monitor and may issue a special weather statement
for the fog; however, a dense fog advisory is not likely to be
issued at this time.
unseasonably mild weather will persist through friday with highs
in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. upstream teleconnections
support an upper level ridge building north of the ohio over the
next few days. the latest gfs indicates heights will rise around
100 meters above normal over the eastern half of the conus. 850
mb temperature anomalies support these warm temperatures in the
70s to around 80 degrees.
in addition to the rain the rest of this week, additional
rainfall is expected early next week. wpc has widespread
rainfall amounts from around 0.75 to 1.00 inch monday and monday
night. at the time of this writing, several rivers were in
"action" and "flood" stage. depending how much rain falls in the
individual basins the rest of this week, river flooding may
persist the rest of this week and on into much of next week.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 640 am edt wed apr 22 2026
weak frontal boundary remains draped across the area and will be
the focus for additional showers/storms this afternoon and
evening given marginal diurnal instability. best chances still
at kfwa but chances may need to be added for ksbn as well.
overall coverage will remain on the low side and therefore
holding with prob30. otherwise some mvfr ceilings possible this
morning at ksbn as boundary layer moisture starts to mix out.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...skipper
aviation...agd