670
fxus63 kiwx 171859
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
159 pm est tue feb 17 2026
.key messages...
- above normal temperatures in the 50s and 60s are expected
through thursday. mild and breezy wednesday with record highs
possible.
- scattered light rain showers are likely tonight into wednesday
morning.
- additional chances for rain and maybe a few storms thursday
afternoon through thursday night.
- cooler temperatures prevail with rain/snow showers chances
over the weekend.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 158 pm est tue feb 17 2026
an active weather pattern returns to the area this week with several
opportunities for rain. a developing upper level jet will allow
for several low pressure systems to impact the area this week.
scattered rain showers arrive after sunset tonight into early
wednesday morning. a stalled frontal boundary is current draped
across lower michigan near our border with nws grand rapids. a
deepening surface low moving through the upper midwest will help
lift that boundary out of the area tonight and allow for rain
to move in. locations along and southeast of us 24 may stay dry
initially in the dry slot of the system, but everyone should see
at least scattered light rain after 06-09z. additional moisture
will move into the area with this airmass overnight with pwats
up to 1" and dewpoints in the upper 40s to near 50. as rain
showers lift north and overspread the area overnight,
temperatures follow a non-diurnal curve and warm into the 50s by
wednesday morning. there may also be some weak, elevated
instability overnight which may allow for a few embedded
rumbles of thunder.
with our forecast area solidly in the warm sector with an
upper level ridge centered overhead, near record to record warmth is
likely for wednesday. given strong waa and southwest wind gusts up
to 30 to 35 mph, along and south of us 30 should be well into the
mid to maybe even upper 60s wednesday afternoon! we currently have a
forecast high of 67 degrees at fort wayne tomorrow, which would tie
the daily record set back in 2017. very mild air may exacerbate fire
danger on wednesday. better fire danger will exist to our west in
illinois with a dryline setup, however, it is not out of the
question that elevated fire danger may also develop west of us 31 in
indiana tomorrow. dewpoints crash into the upper 20s wednesday
afternoon along and west of us 31, which will result in minimum
relative humidity values around 25-30%. the only thing that may
prevent elevated fire danger is the fact that the with recent
snowmelt and ground being recently thawed, fuels may be moist still.
we have not had time to really dry out, and light rain ahead
overnight will further prevent any drying out of fuels.
another opportunity for rain and maybe a few thunderstorms
arrives thursday afternoon/evening into friday. another surface
low will lift through the midwest, with convection ahead of a
cold front thursday afternoon/evening. forecast soundings show
mid level dry air to overcome thursday afternoon, with the
chances for rain amping up throughout the afternoon and evening
hours (highest after 00z friday with 60-80%). aided by a 500mb
shortwave, the environment will be sufficient to produce rain
and maybe even a few storms during the evening into the early
overnight hours. southerly winds will aid in low level moisture
return from the gulf, boosting dewpoints into the low to mid 50s
on thursday (this is trending upwards from yesterday`s model
runs). mid range model guidance does depict modest wind shear of
around 40 kts, ~500 j/kg of mucape, and mid level lapse rates
of ~8c/km. spc has a day 3 marginal risk (level 1/5) for
thursday south of fort wayne; we are not expecting severe
weather at this time but can`t rule out a few gusty storms in
our forecast area with this system. i`d suspect a majority of
the severe weather thursday to be in the vicinity of the ohio
river where dewpoints will be into the low 60s.
despite the warm week, we still have several weeks of winter to
finish off february into march. the transition into spring is often
a time of year where we can get mild days but also still can get
cold and snow. we return back to reality by the weekend with highs
in the 30s, lows in the teens, and 20-40% chances for rain/snow
showers with an upper level trough over the great lakes. cyclonic
flow and colder air may also allow for lake effect snow to return
early next week.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 1243 pm est tue feb 17 2026
have kept previous tafs unchanged for the most part with regards
to the arrival of increasing lift and low level moisture later
tonight into early wednesday along and ahead of a warm front.
mvfr cigs/vsby will be the main impacts for a several hour
period at both sites, with somewhat greater chance for ifr
cigs/vsby at ksbn closer to somewhat better lift. any
precipitation will quickly exit wednesday morning as the area
enters the warm sector of the system (sw winds). as noted in
previous discussion, a stout llj will begin to ramp up
overnight into early wednesday, but by the time it approaches
llws thresholds, the front is expected to have passed and mixing
of stronger winds will commence. will keep llws out for this
issuance.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...johnson
aviation...fisher