190
fxus63 kiwx 142323
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
723 pm edt sat mar 14 2026
.key messages...
- wind advisory now in effect late sunday morning through
sunday evening for 45-55 mph southerly gusts.
- a line of showers and thunderstorms moves through sunday evening.
damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard.
- windy and turning sharply colder late sunday night into monday
with snow showers likely, especially in southwest michigan and
around the greater south bend area where accumulations and
travel impacts are expected through tuesday morning.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 117 pm edt sat mar 14 2026
a strong ~170 kt upper jet streak will dive into the central us
carving out an unseasonably strong 500 hpa height minimum that will
send a deepening sfc cyclone northeast from ia sunday to the
northern great lakes monday. this will be a classic early
spring storm system for the midwest with headline level winds,
thunderstorm chances, impressive temperatures swings and
cold/snow.
the warm advection wing associated with a developing 60-70 kt low
level jet will bring the system warm front though later tonight into
sunday morning. the region of moist isentropic ascent in advance of
this warm front looks to primarily pass north of the area late
today into tonight with virga and mid level clouds locally,
save for along and north of the mi stateline where a low chance
pop (20-30%) was retained for light measurable precip.
a very windy warm sector then builds in during the day on sunday as
temperatures make a run a 70f. forecast soundings and href/nbm probs
are highly supportive of frequent 45-55 mph gusts late sunday
morning into the afternoon/evening, with a few gusts up to 60
mph not out the question. hopefully not the intensity of yesterday`s
wind event with a wind advisory issued this go around given more
limited mixing depths.
a very narrow ribbon on low-level moisture (sfc dewpoints low-mid
50s) likely accompanies the system cold front advancing east through
the area sunday evening. this luckily won`t be enough to generate
much in the way of instability, but with such a strong wind field
and frontal forcing can not rule out damaging winds if a low topped
squall line (thin, potentially devoid of lightning) tracks through.
this has been a pretty consistent signal in cams with no changes to
spc`s slight risk (2 out 5) primarily for damaging winds.
sharply colder air wraps in through the backside of the deep low
lifting into northern michigan late sunday night into monday with an
unpleasant visit from winter. 700 mb delta t`s drop to near 30c with
favorable synoptic support/moisture for les snow/blowing snow within
the pivoting deformation axis monday, transitioning to pure le
monday night into tuesday morning. advisory level amounts/impacts
appear probable in our favored wnw flow les belts, including
the south bend area into southwest mi, but will hold off on
issuing for now given this is still 4-5 periods out. some gusty
snow showers likely make it well inland as well monday into
monday evening with minor accums possible. wind chills likely
fall to near zero monday night into tuesday morning otherwise,
with a clipper system to follow through around tue night-wed am
with a chance (40- 60%) for light system snow. the second half
of the week then features a warming warming trend.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 721 pm edt sat mar 14 2026
a warm front lifts northeastward tonight as a low pressure system
approaches from the southwest. dry air at the low levels keep flight
conditions in vfr through the period. the main issue will be the
strong gusty winds that have the potential to reach between 45 and
55 mph after 15z sunday. a cold front arrives between 20 and 00z,
probably closer to 00z, bringing the chance for showers and
potentially some thunderstorms should we get enough instability. the
main threat with the cold front will be for strong to damaging
winds. winds relax below wind advisory threshold a couple hours
after sunset and a couple hours after frontal passage sunday
night, but probably maintain 25 to 40 kt gusts.
with the passage of the warm front tonight, will include some llws
that continues into late morning sunday.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory from 11 am edt /10 am cdt/ sunday to midnight
edt /11 pm cdt/ sunday night for inz005>009-012>015-017-
018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
oh...wind advisory from 11 am sunday to midnight edt sunday night
for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...wind advisory from 11 am sunday to midnight edt sunday night
for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...gale watch from sunday morning through sunday evening for
lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...roller