100
fxus63 kiwx 100653
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
153 am est tue feb 10 2026
.key messages...
- warmer today with highs near 40. highs will remain the 30s
for the rest of the week, supporting a slow melt of the
existing snowpack.
- there is a 40-60% chance of rain on sunday. if it does rain,
some minor flooding is possible in areas that still have a
significant snowpack.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 153 am est tue feb 10 2026
waa now in full swing across the area as flattening mid/upper level
flow causes well-established thermal ridge over the central/northern
plains to fold east with 850mb temps near 12c. of course we won`t
mix into that but upstream temps are well into the 40s giving some
hope we may hit 40f today for the first time in almost a month.
much will depend on the cloud forecast which is a challenging
one. some models suggest a low stratus deck but models
notoriously struggle with rh profiles in strong waa over deep
snow/cold ground. there are also abundant mid/upper clouds at
present but upstream satellite and forecast soundings suggest
these may dissipate for a time around midday before returning
overnight. will hold close to nbm for now which has highs right
at 40f for most places and mid/upper 40s in far sw where
snowpack is much thinner. lowest confidence is in the nw zones
where snowpack is deepest and surface dewpoints will likely
struggle to get above freezing. this will be the warmest day of
the week and will be our best chance to melt off some of the
snow. unfortunately the area that needs to melt the most (nw
zones where snow cores exceed 2" of liquid) will melt the least
today. areas in our central and se zones where swe`s are around
1" should see a good deal of melt today as dewpoints (briefly)
climb above freezing.
a cold front will slide through the area later today and even though
the upstream air is not particularly cold compared to recent
conditions (850mb temps below -10c bypass us to the ne) it will be
cold enough to drop highs back into the low/mid 30s, lows to around
20f, and dewpoints obviously well below freezing for the rest of the
week. it will also be mostly cloudy for much of the week. feb sun
angle will still take a toll with temps in the 30s but likely won`t
be able to melt all the snow (esp nw) before this weekend. this is
important because models continue to struggle with the eastward
ejection of what will be a moisture-laden system from the california
coast. deterministic runs still leaning to a more southern track but
a lot of ensemble guidance suggests a more northern track that would
impact our area. lack of substantial cold air will introduce ptype
concerns in this scenario and much of it could fall as rain. there
are still a lot of variables at play but the potential is there for
at least some minor hydro concerns. will likely know more in the
next day or two as snowmelt trends are finalized and upper low comes
onshore in california.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 1215 am est tue feb 10 2026
high confidence in vfr conditions within the critical taf
period, with decreasing confidence beyond 18z this afternoon.
in the near-term, llws is a concern with a strengthening ll jet
moving from mo and over into in (ksbn is on the fringe of a
preexisting airmet). in the wake of this jet, a cold front moves
through allowing surface wind to veer wnw. an absence of deep
moisture will prevent any precipitation with this frontal
passage. however, through time, lake modification of the
boundary layer may permit the development of mvfr ceilings.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...agd
aviation...brown