060
fxus63 kiwx 202257
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
557 pm est fri feb 20 2026
.key messages...
- snow returns saturday through much of monday with around 4
inches possible mainly across laporte and berrien county, but
also across northwestern st joseph county.
- another system arrives tuesday into tuesday night with light
snow
- trending warmer for the end of the work week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 205 pm est fri feb 20 2026
the vigorous shortwave associated with the upper low causing the
precipitation across the area today shifts east-northeastward toward
upstate ny and this continues to open the access point for cold air
to enter the region. subsidence behind the wave, allows this
snow/drizzle mix to shut off this afternoon into the evening as dry
air pushes in from the southwest. expect winds to calm down this
evening as the llj pushes eastward and mixing relaxes. we`re also
back to the cool weather as lows tonight drop back into the mid to
upper 20s tonight.
after a dry day saturday, moisture returns later saturday as another
shortwave approaches from the southwest. there are signs that precip
may pick up later afternoon or the evening as lake enhanced
instability returns and, that paired with lift and convergence,
allows for a return of lake effect snow. lake enhanced inversion
heights rise quickly after 00z saturday evening, reaching 5 to 6 kft
by around 6z. however, delta ts are still relatively modest at
around 15 degrees. there is some transience to any bands that form
with a sfc trough or two moving through and there may be a
preference towards a multibanded structure. moisture begins to dry
out sunday night/monday allowing a drop in inversion heights at that
point. there`s fairly decent agreement in advisory level snowfall
for berrien, laporte, and northern parts of st joseph county between
6z sat night to 6z sun night. lake effect snow is expected to slowly
push out later monday/monday night as sfc high pressure arrives, dry
air takes over, and trajectories change to more southerly.
waa ensues tuesday as a clipper system dives into mi. look for more
snow between tuesday afternoon and tuesday night. the next system is
hot on its tails with a combination of snow and rain for wednesday
afternoon and night (the aigfs aligns more with gem/ecmwf timing
than traditional gfs). friday looks drier as high pressure passes by
to the south.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z sunday/...
issued at 553 pm est fri feb 20 2026
low pressure centered over northern-lower mi continues to
slowly drift east, nearly stacked beneath the parent upper-
level low. the existing tafs were in good shape, but it does
appear fuel-alternate ceilings may return/linger at ksbn tonight
before late-day (and brief) improvement as the inversion eases.
at kfwa, a better opportunity for mvfr ceilings with low
confidence on the inherited 06z improvement. given kfwa`s
proximity to the southern edge of the stratus shield, vfr is
certainly probable. lake effect snow showers just outside of
this taf period, primarily at ksbn.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...wind advisory until 7 pm est /6 pm cst/ this evening for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for ohz001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
mi...wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for miz078>081-177-
277.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...roller
aviation...brown