204
fxus63 kiwx 150702
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
202 am est sun feb 15 2026
.key messages...
- above average temperatures continue through midweek then turn
colder toward the end of the week.
- rain showers are likely late tuesday night into wednesday
morning. additional chances (30-60%) for rain then late
thursday into friday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 201 am est sun feb 15 2026
expansive rain shield on the northern fringe of a deep south low
pressure center may yet clip areas south of the us 24 corridor with
a period of light rain this morning, best chances (40-60%) marion to
portland in before 10 am. dry and warmer conditions the story
otherwise through tuesday as the polar jet remains displaced off to
the north allowing for a feed a milder air into the great lakes
region.
a warm front remains on target to lift through the area later
tuesday night into wednesday morning as shortwave energy and a
developing sfc low eject northeast into the upper midwest and
western great lakes. deepening, moist, southwest flow undercutting
this system will advect a ~1" pwat air mass into the aforementioned
warm front with showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder likely
clipping portions of the forecast area during this time. the bulk of
the forecast area could get solidly into the warm sector by
wednesday afternoon with gusty southwest winds and some filtered
sunshine potentially pushing high temps well into the 60s.
the next jet streak and shortwave ejects out of the western us then
later thursday into friday with another developing low taking a
slightly more suppressed track over or just north of the forecast
area during this time with breezy conditions and additional chances
for rain showers. cooler wx then settles in behind this system next
weekend.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 105 am est sun feb 15 2026
an upper level low across the southern plains will remain
divorced from main westerlies today. some extension of this
troughing is noted with a weaker northern stream short wave
working across the ohio valley this morning. this setup will not
allow much northward migration of better low level moisture
transport currently depicted across southern indiana. the
northern extent of measurable precip shield is expected to
remain south of kfwa vicinity. the main impact of this system
for terminals, and in particular kfwa, will be potential of some
lower end mvfr and potentially ifr cigs as weak moisture
advection beneath low level inversion occurs through the early
morning hours. the current expectation is that mvfr cigs in the
2-3k ft range could remain just south of ksbn, although cannot
rule out brief mvfr cigs impacting ksbn centered around 12z. in
addition, some light fog is expected across the terminals due to
weak flow and near sfc moisture advection. low clouds may take
some time to scour out today across kfwa vicinity as dry air
advection is tempered by another weak mid level trough working
across the western great lakes. light southwest winds will
become west-northwest this afternoon, looking ahead, will likely
need to assess potential of more fog inclusion for early monday
with the 12z tafs as weak anticyclone drifts across the ohio
valley/southern great lakes.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili