757
fxus63 kiwx 310818
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
318 am est sat jan 31 2026
.key messages...
- heavy lake effect snow with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
and poor visibility is impacting lake mi-adjacent counties
this morning and may stall just to our west midday into the
afternoon.
- another cold night is in store tonight with a 20 percent
chance for wind chill values lower than advisory criteria
(-15f) mainly along and east of i-69
- temperatures warm into the 20s starting sunday and continuing
through the work week.
- a system moves through later sunday night through monday with
light snow totaling less than 1 inch.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 253 am est sat jan 31 2026
the lake effect band that was affecting lake mi-adjacent counties
this morning had produced 4 inches in 1 hour in porter county where
it was stationary last evening. it was more transient along our lake
shore, but visibility was down to around 1 mi in many locations in
this area. bottomline is that this lake effect snow was producing
heavy snow at high rates. use caution while driving underneath that
snow band. additionally, there was a smattering of wind chill values
between -10 and -15f this morning mainly east of i-69. be sure to
bundle up if outside this morning. wind chill values are expected to
warm up to around zero around midday today.
the vort max swings southeast away from the area today and this
takes the low level moisture away from lake mi and pushes the
convergent low level winds back westward this morning. the lake
effect snow band was bringing moderate to heavy lake effect snow to
laporte county as well as southwest berrien county after midnight
(especially after 5z), but has begun its westward swing behind
a sfc trough diving southward through mi where its eventual
dissipation will occur this morning.
dry air takes over for areas east of us-31 this morning and for
western areas this evening, as mid level ridging and surface high
pressure influence the area, and continues through sunday night.
through this period, 850 mb temperatures rise from around -20c to
around -10c, but surface temperatures still look cold enough to
bring wind chills down between -10 and -14f. winds go light to calm,
but clouds clear out so ingredients are mixed around creating cold
enough wind chills. did find some probabilities of wind chills lower
than -14f and those are actually lower (~20 percent, but more
widespread east of i-69) for saturday night than what they were last
night for this morning (~20-40 percent, mainly nw oh). moving
forward, temperatures continue to rise allowing our highs, which
were in the teens on friday and that`s expected again today, to
reach the 20s on sunday and stay in the 20s through thursday. lows
will stay in the teens early next week, but could fall into the
single digits at times for the end of the week.
back to the precipitation chances after sunday night, our next snow
chance occurs as a result of a low pressure system and accompanying
shortwave passing by to the north of the area and pushing an
occluded front through the area. it does look like there is a
moisture plume that could be tapped into, but it appears to be more
pacific in origin as opposed to from the gulf. it appears like there
could be some lake enhancement, but parameters/ingredients for it
appear to be lacking resulting in only a small addition, especially
with it being iced up some now. also, the dgz is rather high up and
has varying model solutions around if omega is within the dgz or
not. the best moisture does appear to reside within the dgz, but the
nam solution which has omega in the dgz also has the best omega just
below the dgz, which would indicate a riming situation and lower the
slr. it does appear like there could also be some dry air issues to
obstruct snow reaching the ground. all this appears to factor into
the 6 hrly qpf appearing rather lacking 6 to 18z monday, which then
lowers snowfall amts.
for late monday night and tuesday morning, an upper low centers over
the northern great lakes and directs another shortwave towards the
area. different timing and strengths of this wave allows varying
times to precipitation creation, but it appears that some light snow
may be possible across our southern tier of counties from white to
jay county, in. dry air on its northern fringe may also be a factor
in keeping snow from the area altogether.
otherwise, surface high pressure nosing in and mid level height
rises tuesday night keep the area devoid of precipitation until the
thu/fri time period. varying solutions on storm track for a clipper-
like system increase chances for precipitation to the area. the
aigfs brings its precipitation farther south than the regular gfs,
but that`s closer to the ecmwf/gem camp. have maintained pops for
this time period from the nbm.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z sunday/...
issued at 1228 am est sat jan 31 2026
weak shortwave dropping south will bring widespread light snow
through the early morning with added lake component possibly
supporting some brief moderate snow at ksbn. confidence in
moderate snow is not high as the main band may set up just west
of the terminal. snow is expected to end by 12z but
northeasterly flow off lakes huron/erie will likely yield some
mvfr stratus at kfwa for much of the day. fuel-alternate
criteria is possible at times but confidence was not quite high
enough to go that low with ceilings. vfr for both terminals
expected by sat night as high pressure settles into the area and
lake effect remains west of ksbn in northerly flow.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 6 am cst early this morning for
inz103-203.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...roller
aviation...agd