217
fxus63 kiwx 091722
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
122 pm edt thu apr 9 2026
.key messages...
- above normal temperatures once again today but cooler on
friday. temperatures moderate back into the mid-upper 70s
again for early next week.
- rain chances this morning (30-50%) across northwest indiana
into southwest lower michigan. showers should become more
isolated with southeast extent late morning into this
afternoon.
- rain showers increase in coverage tonight from nw indiana into
southern lower michigan and drop southeast into ne indiana/nw
ohio on friday. greatest potential of rainfall amounts in
excess of 0.50" north of us route 6. some secondary rises on
area rivers possible, but overall hydro impacts from this
additional rain is expected to be minor.
- much above normal temperatures expected early next week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 330 am edt thu apr 9 2026
a band of rain showers continues to progress slowly southeast early
this morning from west central michigan into northeast illinois.
these showers are developing along pre-frontal forcing axis where a
narrow axis of low level moisture convergence is aiding showers.
these showers are also developing along southern periphery of upper
height falls which are centered across the northern great lakes
this morning. a secondary band of broken rain showers is also
noted immediately behind sfc front from southwest wisconsin
to northern lake michigan vicinity. through time this morning,
the stronger mid/upper level forcing associated with ontario
upper level wave will shift across eastern great lakes/southeast
canada as the primary upper level trough lifts northeast across
the james bay area. rain shower coverage is expected to be
limited late this morning into this afternoon as this larger
scale forcing becomes more divorced from slowing pre-frontal
moisture axis/associated cold front. did keep some slight chance
pops in place this afternoon as a result. thunder potential
this afternoon appears relatively low given limited instability
and lack of larger scale forcing. some weak surface based cape
of 200-500 j/kg may set up across central portions of the
forecast area this afternoon so cannot completely discount an
isolated storm. perhaps best chance of an isolated storm would
be if a differential heating zone can setup across far ne in/nw
ohio with lesser cloud cover far southeast. otherwise, for today
it will be mild with highs well into the 70s to the south of
the stalling frontal zone. breezy/windy conditions should also
develop again along and south of us route 24 where these warmer
temps will promote some better mixing.
some uptick in shower coverage is expected this evening as a broad
upstream mid level trough begins to induce stronger low level
flow over the stalled boundary across the southern great lakes.
this setup should eventually turn into a southeast sagging
boundary/low level fgen forcing scenario late tonight into
friday as the mid level trough tracks across the great lakes
region. weak mid level lapse rates should limit thunder
potential tonight into friday, with best chance of few embedded
storms late this evening/early overnight. sharpening
frontogenesis forcing tonight/early friday will have the
potential to produce at least a narrow axis of 0.50"+ of
rainfall north of us route 6 corridor, but lesser rain amounts
are expected for southern locations as stronger frontal forcing
should be migrating across the eastern great lakes friday
morning. area hydrographs do show some response to this
forecasted rain, but overall response is expected to be minor in
nature and currently not anticipated to have significant impact
on the ongoing river flooding.
seasonable temps are expected on saturday due to friday frontal
passage, with temperatures expected to be near seasonable levels.
mid level height rises in wake of friday mid level trough should
yield quiet weather conditions at least through first half of the
weekend. the second half of the weekend will feature a return of
stronger low level warm advection with more favored short wave track
expected from the central plains to the upper ms valley/northern
great lakes. by sunday night into monday, mid to high chance pops
(40-50%) will be maintained as central conus theta-e ridge shifts
across the region. some uncertainty still exists with shower chances
during this period due to likelihood stronger forcing will be
displaced northwest/north of the local area.
for next week, medium range guidance is in decent agreement that
split flow across eastern pacific will yield a stronger southern
stream upper trough which will eventually reach central conus by
next wednesday. confidence remains high in much above normal
temperatures continuing into tuesday with broad warm sector across
southern great lakes/ohio valley. weaker embedded short waves are
possible early next week in stronger westerly flow regime that could
induce periodic shower/storm chances considering some steepening of
mid level lapse rates anticipated during this period. present
indications would suggest perhaps best chances of more organized
convective chance by middle of next week when the western conus
upper trough ejects northeast. however, recent trend in ensemble
guidance points toward downstream upper ridging potentially holding
stronger across eastern third of the country into middle of next
week which could allow for some dampening of this upper trough
across the great lakes region.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 117 pm edt thu apr 9 2026
a cold front is positioned just northwest of south bend
currently, extending from grand rapids to benton harbor to
chicago. as this front slowly sinks southeastward this afternoon
and eventually stalls over our area, a narrow line of scattered
showers will make it`s way across northern indiana. there has
not been any thunder or lightning associated with these showers
given weak instability today. expect mvfr visibilities at kfwa
for a few hours this afternoon and evening as the front works
through. tonight, low level flow and waa ramp up and may
interact with the then stalled cold front. this could produce a
few showers tonight into the early overnight, but confidence is
very low. better chances for rain arrive friday morning with
another cold frontal passage. mvfr ceilings and visibilities are
likely with rain and storms at both ksbn and kfwa tomorrow
morning; rain starts at ksbn around 09-10z and at kfwa between
11-12z. post-front, ceilings could drop as low as 700-800 ft
friday morning into the afternoon after the rain ends.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...marsili
aviation...johnson