715
fxus63 kiwx 232218
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
618 pm edt mon mar 23 2026
.key messages...
- warming trend tuesday through thursday.
- a strong cold front brings chances (50-80%) for showers and
storms thursday afternoon into thursday evening. there is the
potential for a few strong to severe storms.
- colder air funnels back in on friday, with gradual moderation
next weekend.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 125 pm edt mon mar 23 2026
typical late march temperature rollercoaster pattern will continue
through the period with the next good opportunity (50-80%) for
showers and storms thursday afternoon-evening.
it will be chilly tonight as surface high pressure moves through.
temperatures then recover nicely tuesday through thursday as return
southerly flow develops behind the exiting sfc high, with southwest
conus upper ridging also expanding east toward the lower-middle ms
river valleys during this time. proximity to a strong pacific jet
stream to the north may bring some mid-high level clouds through at
times which may affect how warm we get each day. opted not to stray
away from the nbm as a result.
attention thursday afternoon into thursday evening will turn to
chances for convection, potentially severe, as a mid level shortwave
drives a frontal wave through the area. this system appears to have
similar traits to yesterday`s front that produced scattered large
hail and wind reports across central in/oh. westerly flow aloft
should advect an impressive elevated mixed layer (eml) and
associated steep mid level lapse rates into the region. there will
also be ample shear and flow through the column to sustain updrafts
with upscale growth potential. the differences this go around
locally with be more favorable diurnal timing, slightly better low
level moisture return (sfc dewpoints near 60), and thus greater
instability magnitudes. questions at this fcst range are the exact
timing of the front and when/if strong capping at the base of the
eml breaches given somewhat modest frontal forcing. lots of
uncertainty, but this period bears watching for severe convection
given the favorable timing, shear and instability.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 607 pm edt mon mar 23 2026
subsidence and drier air was completely eroding the vfr stratocu
cloud deck at around 040. both fwa and sbn have scattered out at
the start of the taf period. the subsidence and dry air will
prevail through the end of the taf period at 00z helping to
sustain vfr conditions. have included wind shear at the sbn taf
due to recent pireps in the area and wind profiles indicating
wind shear. winds will decouple as the gradient slackens and
will help the winds to become light. winds will eventually
become southerly as the high pressure area continues to drift
east and as low pressure develops east of the front range over
the high plains.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz043-
046.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...skipper