651
fxus63 kiwx 050420
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1220 am edt tue may 5 2026
.key messages...
- scattered showers and a few non-severe storms will remain
possible this morning.
- widespread rain develops tuesday afternoon into tuesday
evening, mainly along and south of the us 24 corridor. cooler
with highs only the 50s to low 60s.
- below normal temperatures and occasional low chances for
showers mid week through this weekend.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 311 pm edt mon may 4 2026
this evening-tonight`s marginal risk for severe weather was upgraded
to a slight risk for portions of the area. confidence in severe
weather occurring is medium. there are some uncertainties with
regards to the start time of the event. much of the guidance
initiates storms closest to 7-8 pm edt, but there are still several
models that begin closer to 5-6 pm edt. a lot will depend on the
available moisture-which could limit development initially (well
mixed boundary layer from full sun earlier today). a decent cu field
has developed for areas west or just along i 69 as of this writing.
dewpoints are in the mid-upper 40s and low 50s, driest further north
in mi/nw ohio. this is lower than what the earlier timed models
suggest (nam/rap)--values are closer in line to the hrrr. if the
hrrr is right, development may be closer to 8 pm edt when the better
moisture arrives (still only mid 50s) with strengthening of the llj.
main focus for convection will be a mid-level wave riding up from
the southwest this evening (aforementioned "warm-front-like" feature
in prev. afd)-then the cold front that drops from nw to se through
the overnight. the main threat with any severe storms would be
damaging wind gusts given inverted-v type soundings. large hail is
also possible with 25-35 knots of 0-6km shear and mid level lapse
rates around 7c/km (could be slightly higher further south of us 30
this evening per the nam). heavy rain and ponding of water on the
roads is a threat in any thunderstorms, however overnight there
could be some minor flooding in areas that receive repeated storm
activity (from both the earlier wave ahead of the cold front and
then the cold front itself).
spc did add a 2 percent tornado risk with the increased low level
shear (decent hodographs)...however it`s conditional on moisture
profiles as well (which is our greatest uncertainty). if we get the
deeper moisture we could see lcl`s in the 500-1000 m range (more
favorable for tor risk). per their discussion, they will re-
evaluate the moisture quality for the tor risk.
otherwise, cold front continues eastward through tuesday, stalling
near us 24, with surface low riding up along/southeast of it through
the afternoon. rain will be fairly widespread (especially along this
corridor), with chances for a few thunderstorms (non-severe). as the
surface low drifts e-se through wednesday, expect dwindling chances.
dry conditions thu, then chances for rain and a few storms return
fri into the weekend. highs wed-fri will be in the 50s, low 60s.
overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 30s wed night (coldest
along/north of i 80-90) with light winds-so there could be some
frost potential. warmer sat-sun with highs in the mid-upper 60s, low
70s.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 1220 am edt tue may 5 2026
showers and embedded thunder along a convective outflow will
exit kfwa by 07z or so. dry and mainly vfr otherwise early this
morning. a cold front moves through before daybreak at ksbn and
kfwa by 12-13z. scattered showers may accompany this feature
with a period of high mvfr to low vfr cigs possible at kfwa.
more widespread rain likely develops this afternoon into this
evening at kfwa as a frontal waves develops. better prospects
for cig/vis restrictions will be just south of kfwa, with ksbn
definitely vfr and potentially dry by this time as drier air
begins to make inroads.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...mcd
aviation...steinwedel