305
fxus63 kiwx 220806
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
306 am est sun dec 22 2024
.key messages...
- a wintry mix is likely to cause travel impacts monday,
especially near and north of the michigan border.
- very mild weather is ahead thursday through this upcoming
weekend with highs mainly in the 50s.
- there are numerous chances for rain thursday through sunday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 203 am est sun dec 22 2024
snow flurries in the ft wayne area caused by industries will end
today with virtually no impacts. a much better chance for weather
related travel impacts is ahead monday as the leading edge of
mild air reaches the forecast area and rides over a retreating
cold wedge of air. isentropic lift per gfs and nam 295k & 300k
surfaces will stay relatively weak and will limit precipitation
amounts. the warm layer will be very close to the rain/freezing
rain and snow threshold. there is potential per colder hrrr that
hillsdale may receive 3" of snow. after coordination with wpc
and neighboring nws offices have kept snow amounts under an
inch. given very cold surface/ground/pavement temperatures at
the onset of this event, believe there is a window of a few to
several hours for for roads to become slippery as the light wintry
mix moves over the area. the cold ground temperatures will lag
the warming air temperatures bringing the potential for the
formation of a thin layer of ice. conditions should improve
monday afternoon as temperatures rise above freezing. otherwise,
very mild air will overspread the area thursday and persist
through this upcoming weekend. there is a lot of energy in
the form of short wave trofs mainly of pacific origin that will
bring numerous chances for rain during this period.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 1137 pm est sat dec 21 2024
broad sfc ridging through the lakes/wrn oh valley will slowly
retreat ewd this period ahead of nrn stream disturbance digging sewd
into nrn lower mi by late mon. well established lower bound vfr
based lake cloud plume early this morning will break up/dissipate
after sunrise timed with shifting ridge axis and backing to swrly
low level flow.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...skipper
aviation...t