098
fxus63 kiwx 261709
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
109 pm edt wed aug 26 2026
.key messages...
- slight risk for severe weather continues today, mainly from
3pm edt to 10pm edt. damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and
isolated large hail to 1 inch diameter are the primary risks.
overall risk for tornado continues to drop, but cannot be
ruled out with initial development of stronger storms.
- seasonable temperatures continue thursday with a very low
chance of an afternoon shower (less than 15 percent).
- becoming warmer and more humid for the weekend.
- there is a moderate swim risk for southwest lower michigan
lake michigan beaches today, and again for thursday for all of
southeast lake michigan beaches.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 108 pm edt wed aug 26 2026
main focus remains on near term as shower and thunderstorm activity
should slowly increase this afternoon into early evening ahead of a
sfc front. a stronger storm developed over lk mi and has been moving
across van buren into kalamazoo counties in mi. some attempt at
further development sw is noted, but they are struggling due to a
lack of upper support. the trough will continue east with a modest,
yet marginally sufficient shear profile to allow for some increase in
intensity with time. with the best lift remaining north, cells will
tend to grow rather quickly, but then struggle to maintain
themselves outside of any storm or outflow interactions. best window
still appears to be 19-20z to maybe as late as 2z. locally damaging
winds, marginally severe hail (freezing levels rather high today)
and a very low chance for an isolated brief tornado in the early
stages of development. swody1 slight risk was maintained across most
of the area. flooding concerns appear very limited given expected
coverage and duration.
another weak mid level trough will pass through during peak heating
thursday afternoon. some limited instability and moisture will still
exist mainly across se sections to bring a small chance for a shower
or storm in the 20-24z thu time frame. will continue with silent 14
pops in these areas for now.
thursday night through the weekend will feature a change in the
upper level flow to more of a semi-zonal setup as another northern
stream trough digs in the pacific nw. as a result, dry and
seasonably warm weather will settle in with highs in the 80s, lows
in the 60s and somewhat elevated, but tolerable humidity values. the
aformentioned trough looks to move into the dakotas by monday, but
then be shunted ne as a 595 dm high across the se u.s edges north.
model blend continues to throw in some token slgt chc pops as it
struggles with waves that pass nearby, but likely cause no real
impact.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 1226 pm edt wed aug 26 2026
cold front remains on target to bring a chance for scattered
convection to ksbn btw 18-21z and kfwa 21-00z this afternoon,
best chances at kfwa. brief vis/cig reductions and gusty winds
can be expected if storms track over either terminal. southwest
winds will gust 15-20 knots pre-frontal this afternoon, becoming
light and westerly later tonight. primary vfr conditions are
anticipated otherwise tonight into thursday, though some patchy
ground br could settle in for a time later tonight at kfwa.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...fisher
aviation...steinwedel