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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1154 am est wed feb 19 2020

issued at 328 am est wed feb 19 2020

high pressure will promote quiet conditions for the next several
days. there is a slight chance for lake effect snow showers
thursday morning for locations near lake michigan. morning lows
will bottom out in the teens thursday and friday morning before
milder air returns on saturday.


.short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 328 am est wed feb 19 2020

high pressure currently in the lee of the canadian rockies will work
it way to the northern plains through today. a weak (flat) trough at
500-mb (and seen on water vapor) will gradually slide south today as
well. by tonight, this feature is south of our area and the full
influence of canadian cold air settles in. this will drop lows into
the teens.


.long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 328 am est wed feb 19 2020

prior to daybreak thursday, 06z-12z, a potent spoke of 500 mb (and
700 mb) vorticity drops south in response to a deepening upper-level
low over eastern quebec. numerous models are picking up on at least
a slight chance of lake effect snow showers. model soundings offer a
mixed bag of pros and cons with this set up. in the "pro" category
might by the 3km nam which shows a saturated dgz over a 3-5k ft
layer with favorable omega nosing into this layer. the sref
soundings show less saturation, but a similar omega profile. in the
"con" category might be the gfs with the most shallow moisture
profile. confidence is low, but enough model guidance shows the
possibility of les exists that it cannot be ignored. so, pops were
limited to "chance" with any accumulations (even lower confidence)
limited to the 0.5" or less range. the aformentioned vorticity
feature passes by the afternoon hours, thus limiting additional

a 500-mb ridge over the west coast shifts east and breaks down over
the next few days. high pressure continues its trek south and east.
conditions will be dry with times of sun. by saturday, high pressure
is now over the mid-atlantic and southwesterly flow locally brings
mild air back to the region. out west, a 500-mb trough is forecast
to be onshore of southern california. this results in a surface low
over the central plains as the trough tracks east through sunday.
later sunday and into monday, there is a rain/snow chance as this
surface low tracks over the oh river valley. 00z gfs looks to offer
a warmer solution than the 12z ecmwf at this distance. given
forecast highs in the 40s and lows near freezing, the time of day in
which precipitation falls will be a notable factor for rain vs snow.
an additional storm system looms for midweek.


.aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z thursday afternoon)
issued at 1153 am est wed feb 19 2020

light northwest winds and vfr/dry conditions will persist this
afternoon into this evening. a moisture starved shortwave will
bring an increase in mid level clouds tonight, with secondary cold
advection surge to follow later tonight into thursday with high
mvfr to low vfr lake clouds. a few lake effect flurries or light
snow showers cannot be ruled out thursday morning at mainly ksbn,
though chances remain too low for a mention in the tafs.


.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
lm...small craft advisory until 10 am est thursday for lmz043-046.



short term...brown
long term...brown

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