208
fxus63 kiwx 011848
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
248 pm edt wed apr 1 2026
.key messages...
- additional rain and isolated thunderstorms tonight will
worsen any ongoing flooding. however, the heaviest rain is
forecast to be west of indiana state route 15.
- breezy on thursday with a 60% to 80% chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the late afternoon. confidence is low in
severe weather occuring, but heavy rain, damaging wind gusts
and a tornado are the primary hazards.
- additional showers and thunderstorms friday and saturday;
remaining warm.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 247 pm edt wed apr 1 2026
a break in the moderate rain along a slow-moving warm front for the
late afternoon and early evening. rainfall amounts of 2-4" from
about knox, in through napoleon and continental ohio has resulted
in widespread field flooding and rising water (or overflowing of) on
area waterways. there is some concern for flooding rain tonight
through mid-morning thursday as the warm front lifts north, but
not quite a slam dunk scenario. thankfully, the greatest rain
totals tonight (about 0.50-1") look to be mainly west of sr 15
in indiana, which is dislocated from worst of the flooding
reports we`ve received so far. rain tonight will also be
progressive, resulting in a shorter residence time. area- wide,
tonight`s rain will total about +/-0.25" to 0.50", with higher
amounts in thunderstorms.
very warm and breezy on thursday with the warm front now to our
north. a wind advisory was considered for western counties, yet the
duration appears brief (6 hours or less) and guidance appears most
aligned with wind gusts near 40 mph rather than 45 mph. the extent
of afternoon mixing is uncertain given abundant clouds to begin the
day. will pass this on to the next shift for additional consideration.
after a primarily dry day (especially south of us 24 where rain ends
earliest) we`ll be monitoring for afternoon thunderstorms to develop
over northwest indiana along a meager prefrontal area. despite bulk
shear of about 40 knots, mucape will be limited to barely 500j/kg.
in this prefrontal area, forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates
near 6.5 c/km and a generally unidirectional wind profile. this
decreases forecast confidence in the evolution of any severe weather
from the prefrontal environment. along the cold front, low-level
hodographs and mid-level lapse rates have improved, yet instability
remains paltry. additionally, the environment could be worked over
by the preceding showers/storms. overall, low confidence on the
slight risk of severe thunderstorms for tomorrow. general thinking
remains damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado, from about 5pm to
11pm edt.
there are additional opportunities for severe storms both friday and
perhaps saturday when we remain in the warm sector preceding another
cold frontal passage saturday afternoon. sharply colder but
mercifully dry sunday. high pressure attempts to take shape over the
great lakes through wednesday, but energetic northwest flow
attempts to send clippers through the region. however, happy to
report that heavy precipitation is not expected sunday through
wednesday.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z thursday/...
issued at 146 pm edt wed apr 1 2026
stalled low level baroclinic zone continues to be focus for
scattered showers from southern illinois into northwest ohio.
this boundary will begin to retreat back to the north tonight
with rain and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm will accompany
this warm/moist advection. this moisture advection should keep
lower cigs (ifr/lower end mvfr) in place through much of this
period. this activity should lift north of terminals on thursday
as low level warm front shifts to the north. some low level wind
shear is possible late tonight into early thursday morning
before strong south-southeast winds mix out in the wake of the
warm front. cigs should also improve from south to north early
thursday as this warm front lifts to the north. additional
showers and thunderstorms are possible with some pre-frontal
forcing later thursday afternoon, but this will be addressed in
later forecasts.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...brown
aviation...marsili