158
fxus63 kiwx 232353
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
753 pm edt tue jun 23 2026
.key messages...
- there is a moderate swim risk for southeast lake michigan beaches
this afternoon. breaking waves and currents are expected.
- the next chance for showers and storms arrives late wednesday afternoon
into wednesday night. severe weather is not expected at this
time.
- additional chances (30-70%) for showers and embedded storms
late thursday night into friday, best chances south of us-24.
- hot weather settles in by early next week with highs in the
90s.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 200 pm edt tue jun 23 2026
high pressure in between upper level shortwaves will continue to
provide pleasant weather conditions into tonight and wednesday
morning. a somewhat slow moving cold front then drops southeast
through the area late wednesday afternoon into thursday morning,
trailing a mid level shortwave tracking east through the northern
great lakes. weak forcing and lacking moisture return suggest
isolated to scattered coverage with any shower/storm activity along
the front, best chances west of i-69 late wednesday
afternoon/evening where an isolated stronger storm cannot be ruled
out given favorable deep layer shear magnitudes. renewed convection
expected along the boundary thursday afternoon, though the bulk of
available model guidance has the front south-southeast of the area
by this time with mainly dry/seasonable conditions locally by this
time.
the aforementioned frontal boundary likely stalls over the ohio
river valley thursday night through saturday under flattened quasi-
zonal flow. guidance continues to point toward a rather healthy
convective system tracking east along this boundary later thursday
night into friday, potentially clipping mainly southern portions of
the forecast area with a period of rain and embedded thunder. mainly
dry and trending warmer/muggy otherwise sunday into early next week
as an upper level ridge builds northward into the great lakes
region. peak pm heat indices may near 100f by monday-tuesday.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 752 pm edt tue jun 23 2026
a slow moving ridge of high pressure will depart to the east
into on wednesday allowing for some low level moisture return.
this moisture return is already underway across portions of the
mid/upper ms valley in advance of next upper level short wave
across nd/south central canada. the strongest moisture
advection/convergence downstream of this wave is expected across
lower michigan, but cannot rule out potential of scattered
showers/iso storms affecting ksbn vicinity during the late
morning or afternoon wednesday. did include prob30 shower group
at ksbn late in this forecast period, but its possible this may
need to be moved up in time if some convectively enhanced short
wave develops. scattered showers/isolated storms are expected
across much of northern indiana late wed afternoon/evening as
better pre-frontal moisture moves into the area downstream of
the approaching mid/upper level wave. instability profiles do
not look overwhelming, but likely enough for some scattered
storms. at this forecast range, with limited confidence in
timing, will defer any ts inclusion to later
forecasts/amendments. otherwise, vfr conditions expected this
period, with any patchy shallow fog early wednesday am expected
to be across outlying areas and not affecting the terminals.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili