594
fxus63 kiwx 261148
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
648 am est mon jan 26 2026
.key messages...
- winter storm warnings and advisories for lake effect snow
remain in effect through this afternoon. travel will be
hazardous for the morning commute. if travelling, drive with
caution. prepare for slick and snow covered roads, with sudden
reductions in visiblity when driving through lake effect snow
bands.
- a cold weather advisory is in effect for southwestern portions
of the area through this afternoon. wind chills as cold as 20
below are expected in the advisory area. the advisory expands
across the remainder of the area tonight into tuesday morning,
with wind chills as low as 15 to 25 below zero expected.
- additional system and lake effect snows (west-northwest wind
favored snowbelts) are expected through the week, with
continued bitter cold. accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are
possible tonight into wednesday, mainly for areas north of us
6 (highest in michigan).
&&
.discussion...
issued at 646 am est mon jan 26 2026
the main changes made to the forecast overnight were:
1. cancelled the winter storm warning for la porte county, in as the
lake effect snow band should remain to the northeast of the area.
light snow is possible through early afternoon, with accumulations
of 1 inch or less.
2. i extended the time of all remaining winter storm warnings and
advisories to 1 pm est this afternoon. furthermore, i expanded the
winter storm warning into cass county, mi and the winter weather
advisory into elkhart county, in. additional accumulations of 2-5
inches are likely-with the greatest totals ending up wherever the
band continues to focus this morning into early afternoon.
more details...
winter storm warnings/advisories: somewhat conflicting model
guidance for the evolution of the lake enhanced snow band
impacting the area this morning into the afternoon made for some
tricky decisions with regards to today`s headlines. at 6 am i
received a report from abc 57 of 5.9" since 9 pm est last night
when the band was peaking. a spotter in st. joseph, mi also
called around the same time with a total of 5.3 inches over the
past 12 hours. as of 6:20, we received a report from wsbt
indicating 8" totals from just the overnight hours in rolling
prairie, in. right now the band looks pretty healthy but not as
intense-with around 1-2sm visibility being reported where it has
been over the last hour or so (kekm/ksbn/kbeh around 1 1/2sm,
and further inland near k65/kgsh/kasw between 2- 3sm).
at 500mb, an upper level trough is digging southwestward from
ontario into wi/il/ia..and this will swing across our cwa today-
exiting by around 21-00z (followed by an upper level ridge). dry air
is advancing into our southwest with the expanding surface high,
while at the same time a surface trough axis is dropping
southeastward over the lower great lakes and southern mi-with the
base on the lake mi shoreline just north of us. the upper level
trough/surface trough will provide an uptick to the band this
morning (around 8-10 am et)-though where the band focuses and how
much of an uptick we`ll see is debatable. some of the models show
the band breaking up or becoming lighter this morning with the
expansion of the ridge south-so there might be a little bit of a
lull or disorganized look before the main trough arrives and
refocuses the band. models vary quite a bit as to how this takes
shape. the hrrr shows an "l" shape from berrien/cass into
elkhart- with the southern edge eventually eroding and becoming
more focused over lower mi, travelling eastward into st. joseph
county, mi. the qpf values for the hrrr are as high as another
tenth or maybe even as much as 0.15-0.20" in northeastern
berrien/western cass co, in...with around 0.05-0.10" in western
st. joseph co, mi. we`ll also see continued light system snow
associated with the trough through the early afternoon before
dry air takes hold. other guidance suggests slightly more or
less than the hrrr qpf...or has the maximum somewhere in
berrien/cass/elkhart or st. joseph briefly before shifting east.
went middle of the road for the liquid equivalent--and with the
inversion heights maintaining between 6- 8kft through late
morning and lift maximized in the better-saturated dgz with the
trough passage-opted for snow ratios around 17-20:1. this gave
me around 2-5" from 5 am onward (so some has already fallen as
of this writing). the potential for greater than or equal to 2
inches of snow today (lake effect/trough combined) was
widespread over berrien, cass, mi and northern st. joseph,
in...and through northern portions of elkhart, in. st. joseph mi
was focused further west (and best snow potential later this am
into early afternoon). potential for greater than 4" was
focused in far northern st. joseph, in and cass/berrien county
mi.
these probabilities led to my decision to expand the advisory and
upgrade cass, mi to a warning. even if we don`t reach the maximum of
an additional 4-5"...the conditions within the band once it reforms
could be treacherous for travel in an area with major
interstates...including i 94, i 80-90, i 196, and other key roads
like us 12 and us 31. the morning commute will be impacted-so be
cautious if driving today. visibility at klwa right now where the
trough is providing support has dropped to around 3/4sm.
otherwise, continued the cold air advisories-one through today in
the sw to account for this mornings wind chills/tonight and tue am,
and the other for the remaining cwa beginning at 6 pm et and
continuing into tue am. wind chills of -15 to -25 are expected,
coldest tonight into tue am (especially east of us 31).
tonight into wednesday night we have a trough move through and lake
effect developing in areas favored by w-nw winds. accumulations of 1
to 3 inches are possible tonight into wednesday, mainly for areas
north of us 6 (highest in michigan). locations north of us 30 will
see a half inch or less. cold weather will persist through the week.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 646 am est mon jan 26 2026
a band of moderate to heavy lake effect snow will be in the
vicinity of ksbn this morning with highly variable flight conditions
generally ranging between lifr and mvfr. this band should weaken
by early this afternoon with less impacts. a few flurries and/or
light snow showers will be possible at kfwa, with the best chance
for cig/vis restrictions mid morning through mid afternoon. westerly
winds pick up a bit otherwise at both terminals this afternoon with
gusts to 20 knots possible.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
inz005-104-204.
cold weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 10 am est
tuesday for inz005>009-104-204.
cold weather advisory until 10 am est /9 am cst/ tuesday for
inz012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-116-203-216.
oh...cold weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 10 am est
tuesday for ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
miz079.
cold weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 10 am est
tuesday for miz078>081-177-277.
winter storm warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for miz078-
177-277.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...mcd
aviation...steinwedel