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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
817 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

.synopsis...
issued at 810 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

isolated showers and thunderstorms east of interstate 69 will
diminish this evening. chances of showers and thunderstorms will
then increase overnight from west to east as the next system
approaches. these higher rain chances will persist into friday. a
few of the storms may produce some brief heavy rainfall and gusty
winds overnight tonight, especially across northwest indiana into
far southwest lower michigan. highs tomorrow into the upcoming
weekend will reach the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.update...
issued at 810 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

some minor tweaks to current forecast to account for observational
trends. scattered showers and thunderstorms were able to develop
this afternoon, especially east of the interstate 69 corridor
where slightly richer low level moisture allowed for initiation. a
few reports of wind damage with these storms, particularly across
northwest ohio. these storms should be on a downward trend next
few hours with loss of max diurnal instability. back to the west,
better convective coverage has been limited to north central
illinois along pre-frontal convergence zone. these showers/storms
should largely miss the local area, with next higher chance of
showers and thunderstorms holding off locally until late tonight
as pooled frontal moisture axis moves in from the west. some
modest increase in deep layer shear with approaching upper trough
should allow remnants of northwest illinois/southern wisconsin
convective system to make into the area after 06z, with still some
question onto extent of organization. pooled moisture axis should
provide enough elevated instability for scattered thunderstorms
however, with outflow boundaries likely triggering additional
development overnight. some heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be
possible, but it still appears as though severe threat will be
quite marginal. while cannot rule out isolated severe gust
overnight west of i-69, generally expecting sub-severe wind gusts
given marginal nature to shear/instability combination across the
area.

&&

.short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 304 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

convection has been a little slow to develop over the area today
mostly due to a lack of upper forcing and lowers dewpoints. recent
regional radar and satellite imagery has shown a few storms try to
initiate, but think we are still an hour or two before storms
really start to develop across the area. this initial round of
storms should be similar to previous day storms due to weak shear
and strong instability. a strong to severe storm can`t be ruled
out with damaging wind gusts in the form of downburst as well as
torrential rainfall bring the primary hazards.

late this evening and into the overnight hours models continue to
show the mcs over e ia/nw il progressing eastwards in response to
the closed upper low over western ia. models show this mcs reaching
our western zones between 02z and 04z which is not the best timing
for severe weather to occur. with that being said, enough low level
moisture and residual heating should result in mlcape around 1500
initially before dropping to around 1000 j/kg towards 06z. deep
shear also won`t be terrible, but still holds around 20kt.
considering these factors agree with the marginal area in the spc
day 1 outlook (generally west of hwy 31) as damaging wind gusts
would be possible across the western zones as this decaying mcs
moves in. further east, the environment will be less favorable
for storm organization and thus chances for severe weather are
low, but a rogue gust can`t be ruled out. could see a lull in
convective activity overnight as low level stability increases,
but can`t be ruled out given the upper forcing from the
approaching low.

upper low slowly moves across central lake michigan and into lower
michigan over the course of the day friday. this will help to re-
initiate convection throughout the morning and midday hours, but
should see the greatest develop occur during the afternoon. this
will correspond with a reinforcing cold/cool front catching up to
the low. this should happen around the time as storms are moving
across far ne in/nw oh/se lower mi. wouldn`t be surprised to see a
strong to marginally storm at this point if we can get a few
breaks in the cloud cover earlier in the day. the nam is the most
aggressive with this possibility and spreads mlcape around 2000
j/kg over the far eastern zones. regardless, storms should
continue to march eastward with time.

&&

.long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 304 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

models still differ with respect to end time of storms friday night
into saturday. went with a middle of the road solution which clears
storms out of the area after 06z saturday. this should lead to a
mostly dry saturday with nw flow aloft. an embedded low within nw
flow aloft, could spark a few storms saturday night, but better
confidence is storms spreading across the area over the course of
the day sunday. at this point, severe weather is not anticipated.
there is the possibility of a lingering storm at the start of the
day on monday before the pattern turns warmer and drier through the
middle of next week as the southwestern us ridge builds back
towards the area.

&&

.aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z friday evening)
issued at 810 pm edt thu jul 9 2020

in the very near term, main isolated shower/storm threat should
remain across northwest ohio and back west across north central
illinois where richer low level moisture resides. shower/storm
potential will increase overnight as a stronger upper level trough
approaches from the west allowing pooled low level moisture axis
associated with cold frontal boundary to push into northern
indiana. this moisture axis and eastward advancement of upstream
convection should allow for at least scattered thunderstorms to
move into northwest indiana and have indicated tempo tsra at ksbn
in the 06z-10z period. current thinking is that upstream
convection will be on a sharp diminishing trend after 09z, but
with uptick in elevated instability and a likely outflow boundary
pushing across the area, kfwa will also be inline for thunder
chances. with lesser thunder confidence at kfwa, will continue to
limit this to vcts mention at this time. unsettled pattern to
linger into friday as primary upper trough moves through the area,
with continued showers/embedded thunder and eventual transition
to mainly afternoon rain showers in deformation-type forcing
portion of the storm. mvfr cigs are possible for a time on friday,
but currently expecting cigs to remain above fuel alternate
criteria for the most part.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...heat advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for inz009-017-018-
023>027-032>034.

mi...none.
oh...heat advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for ohz001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025.

lm...none.
&&

$$

update...marsili
synopsis...marsili
short term...cm
long term...cm
aviation...marsili


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