957
fxus63 kiwx 100731
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
331 am edt fri apr 10 2026
.key messages...
- rain overspreads the area this morning with greatest rainfall
amounts generally along and north of us route 6. highest probabilities
of one half inch or more of rainfall is roughly along and
north of the interstate 80 corridor
- turning colder later this afternoon into tonight behind a cold
front, with some patchy frost expected tonight.
- trending warmer and generally drier for most of the weekend.
next organized rain chance arriving sunday night into early
monday.
- daily chances for showers and thunderstorms can be expected
next week as numerous disturbances pass through the area. an
occasional risk for strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out, particularly tuesday and wednesday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 330 am edt fri apr 10 2026
widespread rain showers extend from central lower michigan into west
central il early this morning. a broad mid/upper trough working
across the upper ms valley and western great lakes is inducing
a broad frontogenesis response which is aiding in the coverage
of the rain this morning. these rain showers will overspread the
local area early this morning before departing from northwest
to southeast this afternoon. instability magnitudes are quite
limited this morning with weak mid level lapse rates in place.
some isolated thunder cannot be ruled out, but this should be of
very limited coverage. based on eastward translation of this
low level frontogenesis forcing into the eastern great lakes
later today, best rainfall amounts of one quarter to one half
inch still appear likely generally along and north of us route 6
corridor. the highest href probs (40-50%) for rainfall amounts
in excess of 0.50" through early afternoon remain generally
along and north of the toll road. these rainfall amounts should
be light enough to prevent a significant river response across
the st. joseph and maumee river basins, with overall forecast
trends still supporting continued falling river levels for
points across these basins experiencing ongoing minor river
flooding. temps today will follow non-typical diurnal
tendencies due to the influence of precipitation and cold
frontal progression. at least a brief period of better mixing
this morning could support some gusts back into the 25-30 mph
range across portions of nw ohio along and south of us 24 in
advance of the cold front.
a cold night in store tonight as a low level anticyclone settles
across the great lakes region with good radiational cooling
conditions. given rainfall of today and radiational cooling, cannot
completely rule out some patchy fog development early saturday
morning but will hold off on mention at this time with possibility
this could play out more as a patchy frost scenario.
mid level heights start to recover across western great lakes on
saturday evening with some return warm/moist advection possibly
allowing some advectively forced showers to clip far north/northwest
areas. the more substantial surface warm frontal boundary should
lift north across the area on sunday setting up much above normal
high temps in the mid-upper 70s for sunday afternoon. some
indications persist in guidance of short wave emanating from upper
low off the ca coast racing eastward to the upper ms valley
sunday night with a potential of some showers/isolated storm
developing in pre-frontal zone. instability should be limited
with this feature so confidence in thunder is on the low side.
progressive nature of forcing late sunday should limit any
significant additional hydro concerns for that period.
while a low level cool front may migrate south toward southern great
lakes early monday with passage of this initial mid level trough,
expecting front to lift back northward as a warm front monday with
mild temperatures continuing. monday`s showers/storm potential
is not very clear at this forecast distance as a potential lull
in stronger mid level forcing could occur during this time along
with a potential of some capping due to some steeper mid level
lapse rates building into the region from the rockies. thus,
just some low chance pops were maintained during the day
monday.
early indications suggest best potential for some organized
convection would be in the tuesday-wednesday (possibly thursday?)
period. medium range guidance would suggest a zone of respectable
moisture transport setting up from east texas into the ohio
valley/southern great lakes region as a potential northern
stream short wave skirts along us/canadian border late monday
night into tuesday. great lakes frontal zone may tend to sag
southward into far n in/sw lower mi heading into tue night/early
wed with increased shower and storm chances, and then will need
to watch how the more potent southern stream upper level trough
evolves for the middle of the week. an overall trend to an
initially stronger upper level ridge across eastern conus and
some dampening of this upstream trough toward middle of next
week seems to support the slower idea past few guidance runs.
overall synoptic setup would support a decently sheared
environment and depending on timing/strength of the upstream
southern stream upper level trough, some strong/severe risk
could materialize tuesday-wednesday, predictability appears to
break down in deterministic/ensemble solutions post-wednesday in
regards to strength/progression of next pacific nw disturbance
for late next work week.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 154 am edt fri apr 10 2026
a broad mid level trough will work across the great lakes region
today. this trough is inducing a fairly strong low level
frontogenetic response across the mid ms rvr valley to the
western great lakes with a few embedded storms well upstream
across northern missouri. rain showers are expected to
overspread terminals overnight into the morning hours with a
trend to mvfr cigs. a very small probability of thunder
persists (20 percent or less), but given trends in near term
guidance instability progs feel that this probability is too low
for inclusion in terminal forecasts. the cold front will slip
south of the terminals this afternoon resulting in ending of
rain and improving cigs/clearing from nw to se. southwest winds
will remain gusty for a time this morning at kfwa in advance of
the front will eventual wind shift to the northwest at
terminals. by this evening, incoming ridge of high pressure
should result in light north winds and mainly clear skies.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili