572
fxus63 kiwx 302312
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
612 pm est tue dec 30 2025
.key messages...
- the first of two fast-moving clipper systems will impact the
area tonight, bringing widespread light snow with the best
chance of accumulations mainly north of us-30. there is a
50-70 percent chance of at least 3 inches of new accumulation
across berrien county mi this evening and overnight.
- a second clipper will impact the area wednesday afternoon
through early thursday morning. a general 1-3 inch snowfall is
expected from this system, though localized snow squalls are
also possible which could contribute to locally higher
accumulations.
- trending drier later in the week through the weekend, but
seasonably cold temperatures persist.
&&
.update...
issued at 607 pm est tue dec 30 2025
per radar imagery, surface observations, and area webcams,
light snow is beginning to overspread the area this evening.
visibilities are between 5-7 miles. this clipper system will
bring light snow to the area tonight and early overnight. snow
is expected to taper off by daybreak for much of the area,
although light lake effect snow showers persist wednesday
morning near lake michigan. will likely handle the snow tonight
with an sps if needed (not a winter weather advisory). watch
out for reduced visibilities and slick roads overnight and for
the wednesday am commute. snow accumulations will be between a
trace to 1" overnight (1-3" in areas with residual lake effect
tomorrow morning).
&&
.discussion...
issued at 1255 pm est tue dec 30 2025
an unsettled weather pattern will persist through mid-week with the
primary focus being on two clipper systems, both of which offering
two brief windows of additional minor snowfall accumulation. a few
lingering lake effect snow showers have finally begun to diminish
early this afternoon, but expect this lull will be fairly short
lived as a fast moving short wave and attendant mid-level vort
max tracks across the western great lakes, giving way to
widespread light to moderate snow w/ the best chance for
accumulations north of us-30 with the highest amounts favored
over berrien county mi with 50-70 percent probabilities of at
least 3 inches per the latest href suite. given the relatively
short residence time of the strongest dynamic support, opted not
to issue any headlines at this time but certainly cannot rule
out the need for a possible winter weather advisory this evening
into the overnight hours. a second, markedly stronger
disturbance arrives mid/late wednesday with a coupled 120- 130
knot h25 jet helping contribute to a few strongly forced snow
bands along the surface boundary, along with some lake
enhancement as well. very steep low-level lapse rates suggest
sufficient instability for potential snow squall activity, so
will need to monitor for this as well. an general 1-3 inch
snowfall can be expected with this next wave. otherwise,
continued cold as the parade of clippers will continue to
provide reinforcing shots of cold air, keeping h85 temperatures
between -6 and -12 deg c and surface temperatures below
freezing.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z thursday/...
issued at 601 pm est tue dec 30 2025
as a clipper system moves through the area, light snow will
overspread the area within the next few hours. mvfr ceilings
and ifr visibilities expected this evening and through the
overnight hours. west winds will become increasingly gusty
overnight with 20 to 25 kt gusts possible. falling snow and
gusty winds will allow for reduced visibilities overnight. snow
tapers off for most of the area between 06-09z tomorrow morning,
although light lake effect snow showers may continue near lake
michigan (including ksbn). snow resumes on wednesday afternoon
around 18z as a second clipper system moves into the area. this
clipper will be stronger with potential for brief snow squalls
and widespread ifr ceilings and visibilities.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 4 pm est thursday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
update...johnson
discussion...hammer
aviation...johnson