092
fxus63 kiwx 121815
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
115 pm est thu nov 12 2026
.key messages...
- lake effect rain showers are expected to mix with and
changeover to snow late tonight into friday. another chance
for lake effect snow occurs friday night into saturday
morning. some light slushy accumulations are possible friday
and again saturday mainly on grassy surfaces. totals are
likely to stay under an inch.
- below normal temperatures today through the weekend followed
by slowly moderating temperatures into the mid and upper 50s
by the middle of next week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 1253 pm est thu nov 12 2026
now, with the area under a broad trough, various shortwaves dive
southward through the great lakes region continuing to keep the lake
effect machine invigorated into sunday. during this time, the cold
air at 850 mb lags behind and slowly drops southward finally
reaching the lower great lakes thursday night or early friday
morning. as a shortwave traverses lk mi midday today, this pushes
the lake effect rain area westward, into lots area. some wavering of
trajectories wiggles the main band eastward for a short period of
time early friday morning and possibly again around 00z friday
evening providing additional uncertainty to the forecast. periods of
drier air under the convective moisture column as well as dgz
moistening issues at times during this period likely impinge on
rates and ratios even with some negative theta-e lapse rates and
lake-induced instability to work with. the saturation issues
could cause some drizzle to occur at times. if the band sits in
any one spot in our area, it could snow, but then the rates are
in question given questions about column saturation issues. the
final vigorous vort max pushes through the area saturday
morning and this is also the time that 850 mb temperatures warm
a degree or two and 1000-700 mb shear looks to increase by the
time we get to saturday and so even though trajectories attempt
to gain a more northwest direction, many factors contribute to
weaker snow, especially as trajectories waver minimizing the
band`s residence time in any one location. initially, it was
looking like friday`s snow was going to be the more impactful
dose. however, if there is saturation issues through the column,
then it may be saturday produces more accumulating snow, but
saturday`s snowfall total ceiling is fairly low given the above
points. right now, only have a couple tenths of snow for either
time period. additionally, maxts are expected to reach back into
the 40s both friday and saturday and those should limit
accumulations especially farther from the lake. roadways are
starting warm from our recent above normal temp spell and it
would take heavy rates to get them to accreting temperature.
given the above points, if it snows, it would probably be to
grassy areas only.
as surface high pressure and mid level continue to build into the
area from the west, trajectories gain more of a southerly component
shutting off the lake effect machine and drying out the area. given
the place of the surface high overtime, a transition to a warm
advection pattern takes over and high temperatures are able to
gradually warm back through the 40s to the 50s by tuesday or
wednesday. however, low temperatures overnight will be at or below
freezing starting even tonight and won`t rise above 32 again until
late week next week.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 1231 pm est thu nov 12 2026
cyclonic, northwesterly flow continues this afternoon and
evening with winds sustained around 10-13 kts and gusts between
20-25 kts. lake effect rain showers continue downwind of lake
michigan in nw indiana, including at ksbn. another wave of
showers is likely to pass through ne indiana and nw ohio this
evening, including at kfwa, as a trough pivots through. mvfr
ceilings prevail through the early overnight hours, with a brief
period of ifr ceilings possible at kfwa as that trough comes
through around sunset. dry conditions return after 06z with a
gradual, slow return to vfr ceilings possible during the day
friday as the main lake effect band shifts west.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est saturday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...roller
aviation...johnson