749
fxus63 kiwx 161517
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1117 am edt wed sep 16 2026
.key messages...
- humid with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through
thursday, best chances this morning, and then again later
tonight into thursday morning (50-80%).
- locally heavy rainfall and flooding possible today into thursday.
- dry and less humid conditions on friday followed by renewed
opportunties for rain and storms this weekend.
&&
.update...
issued at 1112 am edt wed sep 16 2026
area of rain continues to move east with overall intensity
slowly on the decrease. a few storms remain moving across wells
and adams county where a flash flood warning was issued given
the swath of 2 to close to 4 inches of rain in southern parts of
these areas. once this area shifts east over the next couple of
hours, models seem to agree on any additional development to be
limited near after 18z through 5z thu. plan to maintain some
slight chc or chc pops as i wouldn`t be surprised to see a
pop up or 2 in this period. vis sat and obs shows some things
spots or limited clearing back across central il that will work
east. this could potentially increase the threat for additional
development in southern area.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 207 am edt wed sep 16 2026
a frontal boundary and ~2 inch pwat axis will hover in west to
east fashion over the area through at least thursday with
periodic shower/storm chances. locally heavy rainfall/flash
flooding will be the primary concern given the high moisture
content and potential for several rounds of slow moving
convection.
favorable right entrance region upper support, in conjunction
with an incoming convectively augmented mid level impulse
(potential mcv), should keep at least scattered convection in
the vicinity of the theta-e ridge this morning, especially
across northern in and northwest oh. rainfall rates have been
impressive (over an inch in 10-15 minutes), so will continue to
monitor flooding going forward.
weak height rises on the northern fringes of a stout upper level
ridge suggest some overall subsidence this afternoon into this
evening. held with lower pops as a result during this time, but
still cannot rule out widely scattered convection within any pockets
of greater heating, mainly near the us 24 corridor. later tonight
into thursday morning then features increasing chances for
another round of storms and potential hydro issues as renewed
warm advection ensues within another low level jet.
the bulk of available model guidance does push the effective frontal
zone off to south-southwest by thursday night into friday with brief
dry and less humid conditions. rain/storm chances then return
this weekend as piecemeal shortwave energy ejects east out of
the intermountain west, forcing the boundary and instability
axis back north into the lower great lakes.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z thursday/...
issued at 536 am edt wed sep 16 2026
smaller scale, convectively enhanced, mid level impulses will drive
waves of convection through northern in this morning. this
activity will remain along and north of a frontal zone
stalled out over the area. high moisture content will continue
to induce locally heavy rainfall rates and brief times of
lifr/ifr visby`s, especially in and around kfwa. coverage of
rain and embedded storms should wane this afternoon with mvfr to
low vfr stratocu likely filling in.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
update...fisher
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel