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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1253 am edt mon apr 22 2019

issued at 1207 am edt mon apr 21 2019

clouds will be on the increase again later today and tonight with
just a low chance of showers tonight and tuesday as the next
front approaches. mild conditions can be expected in advance of
this front, with highs in the 70s today.


.short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 235 pm edt sun apr 21 2019

beautiful afternoon across the region with temperatures in the 60s
and even a few 70s. the mostly clear skies and light winds will
allow lows to drop into the mid 40s to around 50, a solid 10 degrees
warmer than this mornings lows.

even warmer temperatures will be in store for the area on monday.
however, challenge remains how fast mid/high clouds will move into
western areas ahead of the next disturbance. area should see highs
in the mid 70s regardless of amount of cloud cover. however, better
mixing potential may occur if we can hold onto sunny or mostly sunny
skies in the west, with mav at sbn still trying to make a run
towards 80 degrees. models do show a narrow ribbon of higher lapse
rates moving through around 18z monday, but lack of deeper moisture
should keep precip chances in check.


.long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 235 pm edt sun apr 21 2019

initial surge of isentropic lift will overspread the area monday
night warranting a chance for showers and storms, although qpf will
be limited as will overall coverage. by 12z tues main trough and
cold front will be entering nw sections. not sure how much shower
activity will accompany it in the morning, but for now will maintain
chc pops with slightly better chances se given more favorable
diurnal timing and arrival of a bit better moisture (pwats around
an inch). could be on the breezy side monday night if inversion
isn`t as strong as suggested by nam. something to keep an eye on.

frontal boundary will head to the ohio river area, with dry period
that has been discussed for a few days now settling through at least
thursday. serious of very weak disturbances will move through the
semi zonal flow, with one thursday night and another towards the end
of the weekend. moisture will be lacking with both as will forcing
to limit chances for measurable rain. will keep spurious pops in for
these small windows but could see them being pulled in later


.aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z monday night)
issued at 1205 am edt mon apr 22 2019

return flow was underway with winds from the southeast. fwa`s
crossover temperature was around 46 degrees and should be reached
by late tonight. have kept a mvfr mention of tempo fog there;
otherwise, vfr conditions will prevail through the taf period.
the gradient will tighten up later today and cause some gusty
winds with daytime mixing.


.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...fisher
long term...fisher

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