061
fxus63 kiwx 241042
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
642 am edt fri apr 24 2026
.key messages...
- marginally severe storms possible late today and early
tonight.
- above to much above normal temperatures near 70 to around 80
through monday.
- dry this weekend then numerous chances for rain next week
with the best chance for rain monday night.
- additional rainfall next week is likely to prolong river
flooding and keep numerous rivers above "action" stage.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 315 am edt fri apr 24 2026
an upper level disturbance associated with a cold front will
move east across the forecast area late today and tonight.
precipitable water values will increase rapidly with the
highest values in the pw axis that will be translating over the
forecast area between 1.2 to 1.5 inches. these high values
support rainfall rates that are likely to reach up to 3"/hr;
however, the storms should be moving fast enough to limit the
flood/flash flood potential. in addition to the flood potential,
there is a damaging wind threat. the storm prediction center
has expanded the "marginal" severe risk west to include almost
the entire forecast area. bufkit soundings indicate parcels
should reach an eql of about 25k feet. unidirectional flow with
daytime heating favors wind gusts reaching between 45 to 55 mph
with the stronger storms between 3p and 9p edt.
unseasonably mild weather will persist through saturday. gfs
temperature anomalies on the 00z run reach as highs as +10c.
these temperature anomalies support high from around 70 to 80
degrees. a mild but wet pattern is farther ahead early next
week as upper level disturbances eject east and northeast out of
some deeper troffing upstream. the model blend has the highest
chances for rain monday night.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 642 am edt fri apr 24 2026
initial line of convection dissipating as expected given diurnal
instability minimum and lack of good forcing. a few showers
possible around ksbn during the next few hours but no impact
anticipated. better chance for thunderstorms (esp at kfwa)
arrives with cold front this afternoon/early evening. vfr will
persist outside of any thunderstorms, though.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...skipper
aviation...agd