367
fxus63 kiwx 280611
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
211 am edt tue apr 28 2026
.key messages...
- area of rain and embedded storms will move east over the next
several hours. additional storms are possible tonight, but
confidence in the threat of severe storms is somewhat less
than previously forecasted.
- a period of gusty winds is expected in the wake of the
rainfall with gusts of 40 to possibly 50 mph in some
locations.
- temperatures trend cooler the remainder of the week with
highs in the 50s.
- although a chance of rain returns tuesday night into
wednesday, the bulk of the period tuesday through this weekend
appears to be dry.
- frost likely at times wednesday night through saturday night.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 203 pm edt mon apr 27 2026
a large area of stratiform rain with embedded thunderstorms was
progressing east across western indiana and eventually points to
the east with all areas seeing a 2 to 4 hour period of rainfall.
severe weather is not expected with this area, as a organized,
elevated line of thunderstorms moves from central il into
central in. behind the precipitation, hrrr and rap continue to
advertise a period of gusty winds courtesy of an increasing
rise/fall pressure couplet from a developing wake low. some
stronger gusts have been noted already in eastern ia and western
il. a wind advisory was recently issued to handle this concern
through 00z tue, with some potential for an eastward (maybe
southward) expansion with time. the couplet seems to move east
and then transition ne, hence the area of the headlines for now.
confidence in a threat for strong to severe storms is on the low
to medium side as cams are struggling to deal with the impacts
of the afternoon convection and subsidence with the wake low.
not ready to dismiss the threat given the wind fields and
overall dynamics in place. the enhanced and moderate risk areas
remain well to our sw where the greatest concerns exist. a
conditional threat for convectively related damaging winds and
maybe a tornado or 2 may exist if storms can develop upstream
and move in. as a result, limited changes to the late
afternoon/early evening period. continue to monitor later
updates. some hydro concerns may exist into tonight if
additional convection does move in, but precip should remain
progressive enough to limit impacts.
once we get past tonight, we trend cooler and for the most part
drier as more of a nw flow aloft sets up with a weak system
maybe bringing some showers to southern areas tuesday night.
concerns do still exist for frost/freeze headlines later this
week, but extended period left untouched for now with focus on
near term threats.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z wednesday/...
issued at 203 am edt tue apr 28 2026
we`re starting out this period with a cold front moving through
the chicago area. there is a chance we could see additional
showers develop along the front, but those chances look better
farther north up toward grand rapids, so we kept sbn and fwa dry
for the rest of the night. behind the cold front, there is
extensive mvfr stratus that extends back west across most of
iowa. where uncertainty comes in is with how quickly does mvfr
stratus fill back in ahead of the cold front (and its post
frontal stratus) as the atmosphere recovers from the storms that
past through earlier in the evening. we did give a little vfr
break before bringing mvfr cigs back in ahead of the fropa.
based on rap soundings, this stratus is going to be pretty
hesitant to leave, with it staying in at sbn until around 21z
and likely not clearing out until more like 00z out at fwa. at
the end of this taf period, a shield of rain will be rapidly
approaching from the southwest, but that rain looks to move into
sbn & fwa after 6z, so something for the 12z taf set to tackle.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for lmz043-
046.
&&
$$
discussion...fisher
aviation...mpg