914
fxus63 kiwx 220559
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1259 am est mon dec 22 2025
.key messages...
- cold tonight with lows in the 20s followed by warming
temperatures the rest of the week.
- there are a few chances for light rain this week, starting
with a 20-30% chance monday night.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 140 pm est sun dec 21 2025
high pressure centered over illinois has brought mostly clear skies
and below normal temperatures today. look for another cold night
before high pressure tracks east and warm air advection takes shape.
emerging from the northern rockies is a shortwave aloft that tracks
through wisconsin and michigan monday night. to south of this, in
the warm sector, modest moisture advection from the gulf will have
been underway munch of monday and forecast soundings depict a chance
for drizzle transitioning to a period of light rain monday night.
soundings are generally mild and supportive of rain with an elevated
and poorly saturated dgz along with weak forcing through the column
(best forcing is displaced across central mi). as a result, i once
again stayed close to the existing forecast of 30-40% chance of rain
monday night.
upper-level ridging, centered over the south-central us amplifies
through the week but is hampered briefly by high pressure moving
into the upper great lakes wednesday. this is resulting in a 15-
degree spread in high temperatures forecasts across model members as
discrepancies shine with the placement and magnitude of an impending
warm front. the in-house blend was the warmest of all model guidance
by a long shot. a reduction in temperatures was required. a
late- day push of warm air advection as high pressure becomes
displaced to the east may allow for sites south of us 24 to
crack 50 degrees. once again, this waa regime invites the chance
for drizzle or light rain wednesday night into thursday.
despite a temperature adjustment, temperatures will still be
well-above normal tuesday through friday; normal highs are only
near 35 this time of year. a storm system next weekend looks to
bring temperatures back toward normal along with rain, perhaps
changing to snow as cold air sets in.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 1250 am est mon dec 22 2025
vfr conditions are expected at the terminals through around 00z,
then predominantly mvfr through 06z. ifr conditions are possible
at both sites between 3-6z (becoming likely after 6z just beyond
the taf period). until then, light s-se flow shifts more s-sw
after 00z. warm air advection/isentropic ascent expected through
the day today, with dry air at the surface/ridge holding strong
for portions of the area precluding any impactful precip at the
terminals. towards 00z we get a deeper moisture profile and
continued ascent-which will produce potential for light rain
and/or drizzle. suspect it will be more of a light rain/rain
shower initially then shift towards a drizzle/low cloud
situation as dry air builds in aloft closer to 06z (especially
after 12z). lingering low level moisture becomes trapped under a
strengthening inversion as we go into the night, particularly
at kfwa-which could lead to more persistent ifr conditions-
particularly after 6z. for now have a drop to mvfr after 00z
with shower/drizzle potential through 6z. have prob30s for ifr
conditions 3-6z for now.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...brown
aviation...mcd