711
fxus63 kiwx 110440
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1140 pm est tue nov 10 2026
.key messages...
- a low pressure system moves through wednesday afternoon into
wednesday night with a period of rain and some thunder mainly
south of us-30.
- lake effect showers impact areas mainly west of us-31 in nw in
and far sw mi thursday through friday night. snow may mix in
by late thursday night into friday morning.
- below normal temperatures thursday through this weekend.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 134 pm est tue nov 10 2026
two jet streams are across the united states to start this
period, with a pacific jet across the northern tier of the conus
and a subtropical jet sliding eastward through the gulf. after
a dry day today, another wave overtopping the ridging in the
southwest dives southeastward into the ohio river valley early
wednesday morning. it will attempt to tap into some moisture
located across the central plains, but it appears that the warm
sector will stay south of us or potentially get into our
southern tier of counties (white to jay county) with a couple
hundred joules of instability. spc has the area in a general
thunder outlook for wednesday for the bulk of the area, but just
a small area of a marginal for wind. its a small period
wednesday afternoon/evening when severe components (mid level
lapse rates and low level instability) have their best
presentation. otherwise, this area of low pressure is expected
to supply some rain to the area starting late morning or midday
into the afternoon wednesday.
then, as the main area of low pressure leaves the area, cold
air wraps around its northwestern side and penetrates lk mi
thursday night into friday. at mgc, bufkit rrfs soundings
indicate saturation occurs around 0z with around 20 to 25c delta
ts. as the cold air continues to filter south and eastward,
bufkit rrfs soundings have snow beginning to mix in after 6z
with all snow not too long after 12z and there are still some
model differences in their handling of ptype. all of this lake
effect precip stays west of in-15 and most of it stays west of
us-31. there will be some meandering of the band to some extent
with some of the precip passing east of us-31, but most of it
stays west. surface temperatures are still forecast to rise into
the low 40s as soon as friday, which would indicate a change
back to rain during the day friday. however, the lake effect
instability is expected to continue through saturday and it is
very possible that at least lake clouds continue for sunday
downstream. some 20 to 25 mph gusts will also be possible
thursday within the gradient.
trajectories finally rotate around to southwesterly by monday
and temperatures trend back through the 40s this weekend to
achieving 50s on tuesday. so below normal temps final become
around normal by then.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 1139 pm est tue nov 10 2026
light winds and minimal near sfc dewpoint depressions will
allow for patchy/shallow ground fog overnight across northern
in. confidence remains low on whether this impacts either
terminal however given incoming high clouds and limited moisture
profiles. vfr/dry otherwise until a frontal zone and developing
sfc reflection drop through ksbn late wednesday afternoon, and
kfwa evening with showers and northerly winds up to near 12
knots along and behind. ceilings drop into the low vfr or high
mvfr during this time.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 7 pm wednesday to 7 pm est friday
for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...roller
aviation...steinwedel