251
fxus63 kiwx 142315
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
615 pm est sat nov 14 2026
.key messages...
- scattered lake effect rain showers and drizzle gradually taper
off this evening.
- below normal temperatures continue through the weekend,
followed by moderating temperatures into the low to mid 60s by
the end of next week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 1240 pm est sat nov 14 2026
with the north to northwesterly flow in place the pesky lake
effect rain showers and drizzle will continue into this evening
and areas near lake michigan may still see a few light rain
showers/sprinkles into late tonight as drier air is entrained on
the eastern side of the high amplitude ridging that is slowly
moving eastward into the region. however, lake effect clouds
will stick around through most of the day sunday. temperatures
on sunday will remain cool with high temperatures remaining
mostly in the mid to upper 40s with the clouds keeping solar
insolation in check.
but as the ridging continues to push eastward into the area a
gradual warming trend will commence monday onward with slight
warming each day along with decreasing cloud cover into the
beginning of the work week. highs monday through wednesday will
warm into the 50s, and by thursday high temperatures will get
back into the low to mid 60s into the weekend. a bit of
uncertainty in the longer term as guidance is rather quick to
break down the high amplitude ridging over the central conus
which may be too progressive with this type of pattern.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z monday/...
issued at 615 pm est sat nov 14 2026
lake effect rain showers have are diminishing in coverage and
intensity this evening. high pressure centered over eastern
iowa appears to be disrupting inversion heights, and low-level
dry air entrainment is noted on forecast soundings. water vapor
shows one more spoke of vorticity slicing south across the lake,
likely aiding -shra near south haven (klwa) as of this writing.
steady southward progression of this -shra threatens ksbn
within the next couple of hours.
otherwise, at kfwa, -shra will be ending within this 23z hour
and an area of clearing is noted across south-central michigan.
this increases confidence in a return to vfr conditions prior
to 06z. at both sites, high pressure promotes wind through the
period of less than 10 knots.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.
&&
$$
discussion...andersen
aviation...brown