053
fxus63 kiwx 130713
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
213 am est fri feb 13 2026
.key messages...
- above normal temperatures through the upcoming 7 days.
- there is a 20-40% for light rain along and south of us 30
saturday night into sunday morning.
- a more active pattern arrives wednesday through friday next
week with periodic rain chances (30-50%) and gusty winds.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 213 am est fri feb 13 2026
dry and trending warmer through early next week with the local area
generally in between shortwaves in split flow. the exception could
be saturday night when the far northern fringes of a low pressure
system tracking east through the lower ms valley and deep south
potentially brings a period of light rain to areas mainly south of
the us 30 corridor (20-40%). the main story will be the gradually
warming temperatures as low level flow trajectories take on a more
southerly component throughout.
a more active pattern (mild, occasionally wet and windy) looks to
take shape during the mid-late week periods given good ensemble
agreement in several shortwaves and associated sfc reflections
ejecting east-northeast through the midwest and great lakes in moist
southwest flow. the initial warm front on wednesday could push far
enough north to bring temps into the 60s for at least southern
portions of the area with rain and perhaps some embedded thunder
developing along and north of the warm front. signal for a more
pronounced low center and shortwave then brings additional rain
chances and wind sometime thursday and friday, though details
regarding track/intensity/timing remain uncertain at this forecast
range.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1245 am est fri feb 13 2026
limited aviation weather concerns this period as an expansive
low level anticyclone continues to provide light winds and
primarily vfr conditions. a band of vfr 7-8k ft clouds extends
from southern lower michigan to the kfwa vicinity early this
morning tied in to a strong low-mid level theta-e gradient
across the region. this band of clouds is expected to dissipate
overnight and shift eastward. this should set the stage for
another good night of radiational cooling conditions. some
patchy shallow fog will be possible once again this morning,
although confidence remains low in occurrence at the terminals.
light southerly flow returns during the day today as the ridge
of high pressure begins to shift eastward. another weak upstream
short wave and weak low level theta-e ridge could bring some
scattered vfr clouds to the area once again this afternoon.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili