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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1218 pm est mon jan 18 2021

issued at 308 am est mon jan 18 2021

snow showers for some this morning will gradually diminish. toward
the lake and along the michigan state line, some snow showers can
continue through much of the day. another quick round of light
snow is possible tuesday night.


.short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 308 am est mon jan 18 2021

for much of the area, snow showers are expected to diminish
through the morning hours. however, this activity can linger along
the michigan stateline due to westerly flow.

forecast soundings for benton harbor indicate lake effect snow can
occur for much of the day, and into at least a portion of the night.
equilibrium levels near 5,000 ft for much of today fall toward
3,000 ft overnight. cape of 100 to 200 j/kg is reasonable, and
lapse rates in excess of 8c/km are noted at times. a limiting
factor is that the dgz will be very dry. previous rap soundings
for this current period have similar dgz profiles, and a trained
spotter in that area reported a 25:1 ratio from today`s snow. as
such, another 1-2" of les is possible today especially in
northern berrien county.

this pesky upper-level low finally moves out to sea overnight and
zonal flow takes shape aloft. clouds will be a key factor for
tonight`s lows. for now, widespread lows near 20.


.long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 308 am est mon jan 18 2021

zonal flow will remain in place for much of tuesday. however, by
nightfall, a shortwave streaks in from the northern plains. the
left exit region of the 500-mb jet moves overhead, attempting to
couple with a departing southern stream jet. moisture is a
limiting factor, as the aformentioned southern jet keeps the best
relative humidity values south of our local area. forecast
soundings show only a few hour period of favorable saturation
before drying out. guidance remains split on how qpf, if any, pans
out. for this round, opted to keep the previous forecast pops,
with an added 10% pop downwind of the lake after daybreak
wednesday in case some les brews.

in its wake, surface high pressure moves in and works to keep a
surface low over the southeast u.s. to the north, a low is still on
track to move through ontario. there continues to be the question of
how active the lakes will become early friday morning and into
the weekend. a blast of cold air at 850mb with a surface high
nosing in behind are good synoptic indicators. however, at this
distance i am skeptical to get too far into the weeds of a
mesoscale process five plus days out. furthermore, the previously
advertised cold air outbreak didn`t pan out.

for early next week, attention will then turn to a progressive
pattern aloft, with the opportunity for better moisture return into
our area. this would signal mild temperatures owing to
southwesterly flow, and possibly a rain event as a surface low
tracks through the midwest. there is a huge spread in temperature
solutions on sunday and monday that will need to be addressed
going forward; aimed for a middle ground at this time. where. is.


.aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1215 pm est mon jan 18 2021

mvfr cigs to persist this period beneath low level thermal
inversion and background moist boundary layer. light snow will
taper off this afternoon. wsw winds peak around 10-15kts.


.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
lm...small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 11 am est
wednesday for lmz043-046.



short term...brown
long term...brown

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