730
fxus63 kiwx 180558
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1258 am est wed feb 18 2026
.key messages...
- record to near record highs today and thursday
- isolated thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds possible
early this morning and again thursday afternoon and evening
- severe storms not expected, but gusty winds with storms likely
- local flooding not expected with antecedently dry ground
conditions and with fast-moving storms.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 1249 am est wed feb 18 2026
a powerful mid level jet at 500 mb with a speed max close to 120
knots per gfs was approaching ca at the time of this writing. these
strong winds are expected to translate north as the upper trof along
the west coast amplifies. this scenario will cause surface moisture
to surge north downstream of the trof axis across the ohio river
wednesday night and thursday and ahead of a strong cold front.
unseasonably mild temperatures will rise well into the 60s with
record to near record highs today. record highs are 66 degrees at
south bend and 67 at ft wayne respectively. surface dew points
should rise into the 50s south of highway 30 (oxi[knox]-asw-fwa-
aoh). bufkit soundings support low-topped storms with low capes
(generally below 200 [20k feet]).
the front should race across the forecast area including northern
indiana late thursday night. conditions after midnight should have
stabilized somewhat from afternoon capes reaching close to 600 j/kg.
strong gusty winds are expected with the storms before much cooler
air spreads across the area early friday. at this time, severe
storms are not expected, but wind gusts to 50 mph are possible with
the strong storms ahead and along the front. the gfs has been
very consistent with the system including storms only producing
around a quarter of an inch of rain. this amount of rain appears
reasonable and on track given the environment and fast storm
track. the flood risk from storms appears extremely low given
the antecedently dry conditions and limited rainfall.
otherwise, much colder air will spread over the area friday and
prevail over the weekend. the gfs bufkit shows a shallow cold
layer with the base of the inversion under 5000 ft (850 mb).
given a west fetch, a limited residence time, a shallow
inversion and a deep subsidence area above the inversion,
limited to very limited lake effect snow amounts are expected.
current thinking is any lake effect snow impacts should be
minor.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 1240 am est wed feb 18 2026
rain showers currently moving through the area in wake of a warm
frontal passage associated with isentropic upglide. this has
also brought mvfr cigs to both taf sites. periods of ifr
vsbys/cigs after about 08z wed through 15-17z wed along with
light showers of rain. wind shear will also be possible around
this time frame for both taf sites with southwesterly wind gusts
at the surface up to 30kts. after 15z for kfwa and 17z wed for
ksbn improvements in both cigs and vsbys will bring a return to
vfr conditions through the remainder of this taf period.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...skipper
aviation...andersen