617
fxus63 kiwx 012326
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
626 pm est sun nov 1 2026
.key messages...
- some light showers or patchy drizzle and sprinkles will likely linger
at times tonight with low chances of rain (20-30%) continuing
into monday. any rainfall amounts are expected to be light.
- very warm on tuesday and breezy followed by increasing rain
chances through wednesday (60-80% chance).
- rain showers may linger at times into thursday and friday,
with highs cooling back to the mid-upper 50s by friday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 230 pm est sun nov 1 2026
broad isentropic ascent is ongoing this afternoon with a few pockets
of light rain/sprinkles across northwest/central indiana with the
more notable area of isentropic forcing working north from central
indiana. as was the case yesterday subcloud layer remains relatively
dry with stronger moisture transport over the past 24 hours
displaced well to the west. will likely maintain some slight chance
pops as this area of stronger advective forcing lifts northward into
this evening. this light precip may also be aided by a weak,
slow moving mid/upper level short wave trough evident on water
vapor imagery this afternoon across eastern iowa/northwest
illinois. this initial short wave is expected to exit northwest
ohio toward midday monday which should allow for slight veering
of flow and some weak speed convergence at nose of stronger low
level flow monday into monday evening. this should provide more
favorable low level flow trajectories for better low level
moisture transport across mid ms rvr valley to shift east. a few
uncertainties remain regarding precip chances for monday
including the strength of secondary upstream wave emanating from
larger scale western conus negative upper height anomaly, and
also mid level moisture profiles may be scoured out a bit late
tonight into early monday with the passage of the initial wave
with possibility of a drizzly precip type late tonight into
monday am. with uncertainty into how moisture depths will play
into afternoon/evening rain chances, will cap higher model
blended pops at 20-30% for now. highs in mid 60s monday may be a
bit optimistic for some areas given expected shallow mixing
heights/cloud cover.
for monday night into tuesday will be monitoring evolution of larger
scale upper trough across the four corners region. all indications
still suggest most of cyclogenesis occuring in lee of rockies before
system becomes more vertically stacked late tuesday afternoon.
likely/categorical pops have been maintained for tuesday night as
primary low jet/low level moisture convergence axes shift eastward
downstream of central plains upper low. otherwise, large scale upper
dynamics are not overly impressive with this rapidly occluding
system with larger scale low level height falls induced by upper
forcing largely remaining southwest of the local area. this
evolution and fairly rapid eastward spread of low level jet
axis/mid level dry slot should keep rainfall amounts on the
lighter side locally (quarter of an inch or less) for tuesday
night into wednesday am. strengthening low level height gradient
should provide breezy/windy conditions with this system,
although core of low level jet axis not arriving until tuesday
night may mitigate these winds somewhat. the main story with
this system will be the much above normal temperatures and a
potential of some locations approaching record highs for tuesday
and record warm low temps for the date.
temps trend cooler wed into thu behind the occluded front with some
scattered showers possible thursday as moisture depths due to
some wrap around moisture. even as low level thermal trough
settles firmly across the area by friday, highs should still be
near normal for the date (highs in mid 50s). medium range
guidance spread in deterministic/ensemble solutions increases
by this weekend with overall consensus in eastern pacific jet
causing flow amplification once again with another development
of an upper low expected. large scale baroclinicity should be
weak, so this pattern should favor quick transition to occluded
systems with no significant precip chances evident at this time.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 626 pm est sun nov 1 2026
broad, relatively weak isentropic ascent will likely keep
pockets of very light rain and/or sprinkles around through the
taf cycle. low levels gradually moisture in this regime with vfr
cigs in the 5-10 kft range expected to lower into mvfr on
monday.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...marsili
aviation...steinwedel