015
fxus63 kiwx 042340
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 pm est wed nov 4 2026
.key messages...
- showers tapering off. some lingering drizzle or very light
rain possible into the evening into the overnight. another
front will bring chances for showers thursday afternoon and
evening followed by a period of lake effect rain showers
friday.
- temperatures trending colder in the coming days, with highs
for friday and saturday in the 50s. lows fri and sat night in
the 30s.
- dry with slowly warming temperatures next week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 150 pm est wed nov 4 2026
initial trough will continue east across the area, taking the
measurable precipitation with it. decent caa will take place in its
wake, with 850mb temps dropping from the teens to +2 to +4 tonight.
cloud cover will limit overall impacts of this, but overnight lows
will still be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than last night (mid to upper
40).
focus thereafter will be on the next, stronger trough which should
be located from ne wi into ne ia at 12z thu. it will be a slow push
se, reaching our nw counties closer to 22 or 23z and then
progressing across the area during the evening. models vary on
amount of precip with this feature but it would seem reasonable
given the amount of forcing and lingering low level moisture to see
some sprinkles or light showers at times in the afternoon then maybe
somewhat better coverage near/along the front. in its wake, even
colder air arrives with 850 mb temps dropping below zero by 12z fri
(coldest nw where values of -2 to -4 c will occur). this, combined
with lake temps in the mid teens will yield sufficient delta ts to
generate a lake response towards 12z fri. ptype still appears to be
all rain (albeit cold), but with air temps fri am being near 40s a
heavier band could tap sufficient air to produce some graupel or a
few snow flakes. the worst of the coverage will likely occur between
12 and 18z with some slow decrease towards 00z and ending thereafter.
highs friday and sat will struggle to reach 50 (a hair below normal
for early nov). overnight lows will dip into the lower 30s with a
freeze possible in some areas saturday night as winds diminish and
skies clear. growing season is over, so no headlines will be issued.
pattern calms down with a slow moderating trend in temps next week
to near or slightly above normal levels. med range models are
struggling with a southern stream wave and its impacts on moisture
return ahead of the next trough mid week. dry forecast is maintained
at this time.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 635 pm est wed nov 4 2026
initial cold frontal passage has coupled with a weak mucape
axis (100-200 j/kg) for some continued scattered showers across
northwest ohio. a dry slot building in behind this front has
caused temporary improvements to vfr for many locations but
would expect mvfr conditions with cigs 2-3k feet to become
prevalent overnight as stronger upper vorticity advection builds
in from the west. this additional forcing and residual shallow
moisture profiles could result in some pockets of drizzle/light
rain into northwest indiana possibly impacting ksbn, and may
need to capture this in future amendments. after a lead upper
trough departs thursday morning, a secondary upper trough and
associated secondary cold front will drop across the region
thursday afternoon and evening with some more scattered rain
showers in ksbn vicinity. mvfr cigs should persist through most
of this period, although likely improving at kfwa for much of
the afternoon tomorrow before this secondary sfc trough brings
in more mvfr cigs.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 pm est thursday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...fisher
aviation...marsili