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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
215 pm edt thu mar 28 2024

.key messages...

* warming continues into tomorrow with highs mid 50s to mid 60s

* showers and chances for storms friday night into saturday morning

* several rounds of rain and storms expected late sunday through
tuesday. hydro concerns may arise during this time

&&

.discussion...
issued at 215 pm edt thu mar 28 2024

tonight into friday will feature mainly dry and warmer wx as upper
ridging expands over the central us. there remaind non-zero
chances for a few sprinkles/showers tonight south of us 30 as a
weak mid level impulse tops a developing baroclinic zone lifting
into these areas. the weak forcing in conjunction with a very
dry sub-cloud layer doesn`t bode well for anything more than a
10-20% type pop. friday will be a pleasant late march day with
low amplitude ridging through the column. the frontal zone does
linger in the vicinity with highs mid-upper 50s north to the
low-mid 60s south.

a periodically active/wet pattern will become established friday
night through tuesday as moisture streams northward into an
oscillating west-east oriented frontal zone. this will occur under a
series of mid level impulses that will eject east in advance of a
deep western conus longwave trough modeled to release east through
the local area by tuesday.

the first modest shortwave and associated moisture convergence on
the nose of a ~50 kt low level jet will bring showers and chances
for elevated convection friday night as a sfc frontal wave likely
tracks east near the mi border. no severe threat with this wave,
though wouldn`t be surprised if there is some small hail and locally
heavy rainfall rates. shower/storm intensity and coverage then wanes
from west to east mid morning through early afternoon on saturday as
the frontal wave shifts off to the east. this will force the frontal
zone south toward the oh river by saturday night and sunday morning
with mainly dry and slightly cooler conditions anticipated.

the baroclinic zone will become increasingly active sunday night
through tuesday as the approaching upper trough takes on a positive
tilt with low pressure tracking east through the oh valley by later
monday and tuesday. rounds of rain and embedded thunder are likely
in this regime, especially given the abundance of moisture getting
pulled north into the frontal system. at this range models continue
to differ on where exactly the axis of heavier rain and potential
hydro issues will set up (overhead or just south). current
projections also favor areas to the south for strong/severe
convection monday into tuesday, though this and heavy rainfall
will need to be monitored in the coming days.

&&

.aviation /18z tafs through 18z friday/...
issued at 105 pm edt thu mar 28 2024

current goes satellite imagery and metars depict some mid level
clouds around 6-7 kft this afternoon. these clouds should linger
through the evening, especially at kfwa. however, vfr conditions
prevail throughout the taf forecast period. a few gusts between
15-20 kts are possible within the next few hours, but winds
will diminish overnight, becoming very light (less than 5 kts)
through early friday. just beyond this taf cycle, rain arrives
between 21-03z friday, so subsequent taf cycles will likely need
to include chances for rain.

&&

.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.

&&

$$

discussion...steinwedel
aviation...johnson