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area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
615 pm est tue dec 7 2021

issued at 259 pm est tue dec 7 2021

a few flurries are possible into tonight as a weak system passes
by. otherwise, another night of cold temperatures is in store
with lows in the low 20s. highs still stay below normal, but rise
into the 30s wednesday. our next chance for precipitation occurs
thursday night.


.short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 259 pm est tue dec 7 2021

the 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal 850 temperatures will
slowly slide north and east away from the area this evening, but
surface temperatures will still be about 5 to 10 degrees below
normal this evening into wednesday. as such, have lows dropping into
the low 20s tonight with some insulation from cloud cover. this
is a little warmer than last night, though, for whatever
consolation that provides.

a large scale trough moves through the area tonight into wednesday.
weak vorticity waves moving through the flow and even a weak low
pressure system will help to force some moisture within the mid
levels of the atmosphere and there is some isentropic lift within
the low levels. however, there`s just so much dry air in the low
levels of the atmosphere that it`s really hard to see much more than
flurries come out of this system as it swings through.

winds do eventually swing around to more northwesterly later
wednesday morning into the early afternoon behind the aforementioned
weak departing low pressure system. vorticity within the swinging
trough will provide some support for a brief, weak lake effect snow
signal with weakly negative theta-e instability, convergent low
level winds, some low level moisture, and inversion heights briefly
up to around 7000 ft. as such, have added a few hundredths of qpf
mainly in berrien and cass counties leading to less than an inch
of accumulation of snow mainly on grassy surfaces.


.long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 259 pm est tue dec 7 2021

strong warm air advection out in front of a the next low pressure
system helps us warm into the upper 30s to upper 40s for thursday,
which is more near normal for this time of year. also increased
winds with some 20 to 25 kt gusts possible underneath. with some low
level moisture flux convergence, some moisture will be able to form
out ahead of this trough, but the low levels will be quite dry
limiting precip output from this system. as such, have removed
mentionable pops with this system until thursday night.

we continue to warm friday with highs into the 50s and 60s as the
theta-e plume pushes northeast through the forecast area, which is
farther north than it was on thursday. the potential vorticity for
this low pressure system is shaped into a hook, which signifies a
strong low pressure system with good upper level support. the system
has more moisture in its column and 850 dew points rise above 10c
especially for areas east of i-69. as such, will continue the 60+
pops for later friday into saturday. another period of les is
possible saturday following the passage of the low pressure system.

then the subtropical ridge builds into the southeast us and locks
itself down there ushering in a warm and dry period for the area.


.aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z wednesday evening)
issued at 612 pm est tue dec 7 2021

vfr through the period. there could be some very light lake effect
snow near sbn during the day wednesday as a low moves across
southern lake michigan and winds shift to the northwest.
otherwise, mainly mid and high clouds expected with no impacts.
winds remains around 10 kts or less.


.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...roller
long term...roller

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