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fxus63 kiwx 282334
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
634 pm est wed jan 28 2026
.key messages...
- arctic air remains locked in through the upcoming weekend with
bouts of dangerous wind chills. coldest temperatures of the
season are possible for northwest ohio by saturday morning.
- coverage of lake effect snow showers increase in far north-
central in and southwest mi through thursday morning with
minor accumulations.
- more intense lake effect snow (medium confidence) could impact
northwest indiana friday evening into saturday morning.
- our area looks to remain below freezing for at least the next
10 days, although some warming (relatively speaking) will
occur next week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 156 pm est wed jan 28 2026
the unusual cold spell continues today with afternoon
temperatures maxing out in the teens and the wind keeping the
"feels like" temperatures steady at or below zero all day.
radar, satellite, and surface observations continue to show
light lake effect snow showers streaming off the sw coast of
lake michigan this afternoon. as we move into the overnight
hours, winds will take a slightly more northerly turn, bringing
these les showers more effectively into n indiana, with perhaps
some slight in intensity as well due to further moistening of
the dgz on forecast sounding. nevertheless, accumulations will
remain light with only a 20-30% chance of exceeding 1 inch
across far sw michigan through tomorrow morning. with how cold
roadway surfaces are, however, anything sticking to the roadways
at this point will be capable of causing travel issues
(especially combined with the drifting snow problems we`ve been
having in rural areas). another cold weather advisory has been
hoisted overnight into tomorrow morning, but this time is
limited to southern portions of the forecast area (south of fort
wayne). lake effect cloud cover will limit radiational cooling
farther north. some higher cloud cover will compete with a few
counties in the advisory such as putnam and allen oh, but the
slightly enhanced winds in these areas might be just enough for
a few hours aob -15 wind chills.
a more robust lake effect band looks to become better organized
by friday pm in the immediate wake of a sharp arctic trough
pushing southward through the great lakes. fairly high
equilibrium levels and moist, steep low-level lapse rates in the
dgz should help feed sustain the band overnight. this might
initially begin in lot`s area, but could eventually nudge into
laporte and southwest berrien as we head into saturday. stay
tuned on that. what is perhaps more noteworthy is the
reinforcing shot of colder (yes, colder) air that will hit
particularly hard saturday morning, especially across nw ohio
where minimum temps to 10 below zero seem likely, and it`s not
out of realm of possibility a few areas creep down to -15 based
on some model guidance. wind chills will also be noticeably
colder than that as well, so we will need to monitor for the
potential of an extreme cold watch if these trends continue
colder...
while temperatures will rebound somewhat next week, we still have
high confidence we will remain below freezing for the next 10 days,
so sublimation from wind will likely be the best contributor to
putting a dent in the snowpack, not temperature itself. on a side
note, a well-known teleconnections called the arctic oscillation,
which can be thought of as the surface connection of the
stratospheric polar vortex, appears to stay negative through at
least mid february according to ensemble guidance. a negative ao
often translates to arctic air being able to easily infiltrate out
of canada into the central and eastern us. so if you`re looking for
a near-term warm up back into the 60s, it`s not going to happen
anytime soon...
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 628 pm est wed jan 28 2026
lake effect snow showers are ongoing over western michigan with
subtle southward expansion noted along with veering surface
wind at kmkg and kbiv. satellite shows associated cloud cover
sinking south as well. these bolster confidence in lake effect
snow building south to ksbn over the next few to several hours.
the nature of the beast that is les offers medium confidence at
best for start and end times. however, there does appear to be a
period of ifr conditions on either side of 12z as multi-bands
pass through. how long this persists is unclear, but most
guidance suggest improvement late in this taf period.
at kfwa, a much simpler forecast. here, lake effect clouds are
poised to build in overnight. medium confidence as well for the
timing of any mvfr ceilings. expansive high pressure will permit
light wind.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...cold weather advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am est
thursday for inz022>027-032>034.
oh...cold weather advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am est
thursday for ohz016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...norman
aviation...brown