623
fxus63 kiwx 130943
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
543 am edt wed may 13 2026
.key messages...
- dry, cool, and breezy today.
- light rain showers possible friday morning (20-50% chances) west
of in-15.
- periodic chances for showers and storms over the weekend into
early next week.
- trending warmer and increasingly humid through early next week.
the first 90+ degree day of the year may occur on monday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 243 am edt wed may 13 2026
strong caa and cyclonic flow on the backside of a departing low
pressure system to our northeast will usher in dry air, cool
temperatures, and clouds today. showers have departed ahead of the
system`s attendant cold front that is currently draped across the
forecast area from hillsdale to elkhart to la porte. as the front
continues to slide southeastward, expect winds to shift from west to
northwest before daybreak. while infrared satellite imagery shows
clouds quickly departing, additional low level clouds will move in
from the north after daybreak and persist for much of the day. a
tight pressure gradient across the great lakes will also keep winds
breezy overnight into the daytime hours today. wind gusts of up to
25-30 mph will occur today, especially in the afternoon with peak
diurnal heating. with overcast skies and breezy northwest winds,
highs for today top out only in the mid to upper 50s. enjoy the
cooler day today because big changes are ahead by the weekend!
the aforementioned low pressure system will meander eastward and
could become a cutoff low by friday over the northeast. as this
system exits, high pressure builds across the great lakes in its
place. both today and wednesday are expected to be dry. a 500mb
shortwave brings us our next chances for rain on friday morning,
although there will still be a lot of dry air to overcome near the
surface. light rain will be possible friday morning, especially west
of in-15. rainfall amounts should be light, generally less than
0.10".
a big pattern change is ahead this weekend into early next week!
deterministic and ensemble model guidance show a strong consensus
for high pressure building over the southeastern us and an amplified
upper level ridge taking shape over the great lakes. our first
occurrence of summer-like heat and humidity for the year should
arrive by late in the weekend into early next week.
temperatures will steadily increase each day, with highs in the
70s friday and into the 80s both saturday and sunday. monday
looks to be the peak of the early season heat with some
locations possibly reaching into the low 90s. the best chances
as of now appear to be along and south of us 24 where nbm
probabilities are around 40% for reaching 90 degrees. strong
southerly winds will allow for a gulf connection to develop by
late in the weekend, which means dewpoints will be on the rise
too. by sunday and monday, dewpoints should be well into the
60s, which will definitely make for very humid conditions in
combination with the above normal temperatures. in addition to
the reemergence of summmer-like heat and humidity, daily chances
for showers and storms also exist over the weekend into early
next week. there is low confidence in exactly where and when it
may rain, but this hot and humid pattern is favorable for daily
rain and storm chances (generally 30-60% each day saturday
through tuesday). finer details are still murky this far out,
but it does not appear like each day will be a washout.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z thursday/...
issued at 538 am edt wed may 13 2026
a dry day is ahead but a tight pressure gradient on the
backside of a departing low pressure system will allow for
breezy winds to continue throughout the day. as winds increase
out of the northwest with diurnal heating, expect frequent gusts
to 20-25 kts by the afternoon and evening. there may be a few
sporadic gusts to 30 kts. infrared satellite imagery shows
clouds advecting into the south bend area as of 530 am edt with
ceilings around 5000ft. expect more clouds to develop across
the area in the next few hours with strong cyclonic flow, with
high end mvfr to low end vfr ceilings between 12-15z. after
15z, there may even be some periods of ifr ceilings with cloud
bases as low as 1500 ft. the best chances of this happening will
be at ksbn. by sunset this evening, winds will slowly start to
diminish and clouds will depart overnight into thursday.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 2 am edt thursday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson