466
fxus63 kiwx 220634
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
234 am edt sun mar 22 2026
.key messages...
- there is a 30-60 percent chance of showers today, mainly from
late morning into the afternoon. a few thunderstorms are
possible south of us-24, but severe weather is not expected.
- highs drop into the 40s for monday but slowly climb back to
the 60s and 70s by thursday.
- dry conditions are expected monday through wednesday but
additional rain is likely on thursday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 234 am edt sun mar 22 2026
warm front has pushed ne of the forecast area with temperatures
in the 50s to lower 60s (yes, it is still march). enjoy it while
it lasts as a cold front, which currently extends from east
central wisconsin to ne iowa, drops southeast over the next
several hours, reaching nw parts of the area near or just
before 12z. the front will continue southeast through the
morning, but slow its progress initially as a disturbances move
along the boundary prior to the arrival of the main northern
stream wave which will usher in much cooler (more seasonable)
air. a large temperatures gradient will set up with a 25 to
maybe 35 degree difference from nw to se. llj will ramp up late
morning into the afternoon ahead of the front, with a window of
warmup looking more likely as highs make a run into the mid to
upper 70s before the front arrives. moisture will remain rather
limited (low to mid 50 dewpoints), but a pocket of steeper mid-
level lapse rates, combined with the increased flow and lift
along the front should allow for a line of showers and maybe a
few storms to develop with the greatest chances for thunder
near/south of us-24. spc dy1 outlook has nudged the marginal
risk for severe storms a bit nw, coincident with the area of
best heating and moisture return. if something was to happen it
would be a very narrow window later this afternoon, with locally
gusty winds and small hail possible. another item of note will
be a increase in winds both near and behind the front as some of
the stronger low level winds mix down with some gusts maybe to
30 mph.
the shot of colder air behind the front will be rather short
lived as the trough ejects away from the region and an upper
level ridge over the sw us moves east with heights slowly
increasing. this will bring a return to above normal and
eventually one more push of much above normal temperatures by
thursday with highs back into the 60s and 70s. another northern
stream wave and cold front will arrive in the afternoon and
evening hours to bring a chance for showers (thunderstorms?)
followed by, you guessed it, a return to near or below normal
temperatures.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z monday/...
issued at 120 am edt sun mar 22 2026
a low pressure system moves through the central great lakes this
morning pushing a cold front southeastward through the area.
with the arrival of a line of 700 mb vorticity, pushing into the
area around 15z, models are already initiating showers and
maybe a thunderstorm or two that could produce some hail. this
quickly congeals into a line and shifts southward slowly,
reaching fwa around 00z. it would appear that that`s just
showers moving through though and that the better chance for
strong to severe storms resides south of even fwa for sunday.
with the passage of the cold front, we`ll also have to watch for
the formation of mvfr stratus as well as gusty winds up to
around 25 kts around the evening time frame. it appears there`s
some uncertainty with the starting point of mvfr cigs at sbn so
will go with a tempo group until greater confidence can be
realized. llws will also be possible at the start of the taf
into this morning.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from noon today to 3 pm edt monday for
lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...fisher
aviation...roller