241
fxus63 kiwx 090655
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
155 am est mon feb 9 2026
.key messages...
- quiet weather is expected this week with highs generally in
the 30s supporting a gradual melt of existing snowpack.
- the next chance of precipitation is not until late saturday
into sunday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 155 am est mon feb 9 2026
a welcome reprieve from active winter weather is still on schedule
for this week. persistent ne conus troughing will finally shift
eastward a bit, allowing large western conus ridge to fold over the
great lakes. strong waa is expected for a time later today into
early tue that may push temps to near 40f (though deep snowpack and
ample mid/upper clouds will temper that warm air quite a bit). the
pattern thereafter becomes one of split mid/upper level flow with
broad northern stream ridging over much of the country with a more
active southern stream staying largely south of our area. this split
flow pattern with some residual negative height anomalies over
quebec (and residual snowpack here locally) will keep temps a touch
on the cool side of climo, especially wed and thu with one more shot
of cool, northwest flow behind tuesday`s dry cold front. however, it
will not be as cold as the past few weeks and more importantly,
there are few, if any, chances for snow. south bend has recorded
snow in 25 of the last 30 days while fort wayne has recorded snow in
22 of the last 30 days, which hasn`t happened since the very busy
winter of 2013-2014. a weak shortwave pushes into the area thu night
with our next (very low) chance for snow but current indications are
for a weak wave that gets sheared out and encounters an increasingly
dry/stable environment over our region. maintained low nbm pop`s in
the far west but these may get removed entirely if trends continue
and even if it does snow, amounts will be very light. much better
chance for substantive precip with southern stream trough over the
weekend but still a lot of guidance members keeping this precip
south of our cwa and thermal profiles are warm enough that much of
it could be rain. will keep an eye on this period but obviously
still plenty of time to nail down the details. overall, a quiet week
with a slow melt of existing snowpack.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 1214 am est mon feb 9 2026
a curious, narrow band of stratus spans from wisconsin to south
carolina. influenced by a sharp eddy tracking through mo and an
upper-level trough spilling onshore of the pacific northwest,
this area of stratus is slowly spreading east and south. as a
result, high confidence in bkn to ovc skies within the critical
taf period. how long this persists is uncertain. time height
cross sections indicate a subsidence inversion will ease this
afternoon allowing for few/sct skies. wind less than 10 knots
today with high pressure over the eastern great lakes.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...agd
aviation...brown