261
fxus63 kiwx 010944
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
544 am edt fri may 1 2026
.key messages...
- rain showers taper off this morning, though a few isolated showers
may redevelop this afternoon.
- a freeze watch is now in effect for early saturday morning.
- additional frost/freeze conditions possible early sunday as well
before warmer temperatures arrive sunday into monday.
- opportunities for showers and storms return early next week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 312 am edt fri may 1 2026
forecast generally on track this morning with minor adjustments to
hourly pops/qpf/temps as a small scale, yet potent shortwave, and
corridor of low-mid level fgen swings through with rain tapering off
from west to east through midday. some renewed, more isolated,
shower activity remains possible this afternoon along and east of
the interstate 69 corridor in the vicinity of a lingering inverted
trough. cool otherwise to start the month of may with highs
generally near 50 degrees.
attention tonight into early saturday will turn to frost/freeze
concerns as low level ridging builds in under elongated troughing
aloft. winds diminish and skies likely do as well with the lake
shadow working well inland. some concern on the edges of this for
stratocu to linger in west-central in and northwest oh which could
limit the frost/freeze potential. this could make for a lower end
frost/freeze event here, with better prospects for 28-32f temps
early saturday into much of northern in and southern lower mi.
another opportunity for frost saturday night will be followed by a
welcomed warming trend into sunday-sunday night as heights relax and
warm advection ensues in return low level southwest flow. a low
amplitude impulse in this waa regime may allow for showers to clip
northern zones later sunday into sunday night where a low pop (20-
30%) was retained.
pattern continues to look periodically active and milder into the
fist half of next week as an upper level trough digs into the north-
central us monday, eventually releasing east through the great lakes
and ohio valley into tuesday-wednesday per a model consensus. enough
gulf and pacific moisture likely proceeds an associated frontal
boundary later monday into monday night with the best opportunity
for convection, potentially strong-to-severe if enough pre-frontal
heating and forcing is realized. additional rain chances then
follow through mid week as frontal sfc waves take aim on the
area.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z saturday/...
issued at 544 am edt fri may 1 2026
potent upper level impulse and associated low level reflection
will continue to generate periods of rain and ifr to low mvfr
cigs at kfwa through much of the morning, while improvement to
high mvfr to low vfr conditions already being seen at ksbn.
improvement back into vfr and mainly dry conditions at both
sites by this afternoon with diurnally driven showers possible
near a leftover inverted trough. point chances (20%) remain too
low for a shower mention however. northwest winds possibly gust
15-20 knots at times this afternoon, becoming light/variable
tonight.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...freeze watch from late tonight through saturday morning for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...freeze watch from late tonight through saturday morning for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...freeze watch from late tonight through saturday morning for
miz078>081-177-277.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...steinwedel