220
fxus63 kiwx 111040
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
640 am edt sat apr 11 2026
.key messages...
- seasonable temperatures today with dry weather persisting.
- high confidence remains in transition to much above normal
temperatures for second half of the weekend through most of
next work week.
- isolated to scattered showers (20-40% coverage) especially
late this evening into the overnight hours. showers become
likely (60-80%) sunday night with a few isolated storms across
lower michigan possible.
- chances of storms continue monday, but tuesday and wednesday
are being monitored for the potential of more organized
thunderstorms that could be strong to severe.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 338 am edt sat apr 11 2026
a broad 1030 mb high dominates the regional weather this morning,
and this high will shift to the eastern great lakes this afternoon.
a few pockets of patchy shallow fog have developed, one closer to
lake michigan where shallow marine layer influence may be at play
and also co-located with slightly better rainfall amounts yesterday
morning. weak easterly flow off eastern great lakes has also been
conducive for some patchy fog confined mainly to southeast
lower michigan. through daybreak, far ne in/sc lower michigan
along with areas closer to lake michigan should continue to be
focal points for better shallow fog development.
otherwise today, large scale subsidence downstream of mid level
ridge axis building into the area will provide continued dry
weather. some mid level warm advection cloudiness is expected to
overspread the area this afternoon, but should not have a large
impact on high temperatures this afternoon. little change made to
previous forecast with seasonable high temps from mid 50s nw to mid
60s s/sw.
for tonight, upper level ridge axis will shift across ohio river
valley/eastern great lakes which will make the local area more
susceptible to several weak embedded short waves in southwest
upper flow from the plains. backing low level winds will result
in northward advection of the low level front that stalled south
of the area yesterday. short term guidance 300k isentropic
progs suggest strongest isentropic upglide north of the us 6
corridor tonight with better moisture axis on this surface from
the southern plains through nw in/sw lower michigan. previous
forecast low-mid chance pops (20-40%) still appear reasonable.
given moisture advection is primarily elevated in nature,
thunder potential appears quite low with forecast soundings
depicting potential of some very weak elevated instability
across southern lower michigan.
low level southwest flow will strengthen for sunday as upper low
slowly meanders across northern ca while a stronger lead short wave
ejects northeast from north texas and shears northeast to the
southern great lakes sunday night. good mixing in this broad
southwest flow setup and warm front lifting north of the area in the
morning will set up windy and unseasonably warm conditions
sunday with highs expected in mid-upper 70s. rain chances will
increase (60-80%) sunday night as aforementioned southern plains
mid level wave ejects to the northeast. with weak mid level
lapse rates likely during this period, thunder potential still
appears on the low side and will keep slight chance thunder
going. rainfall amounts with this initial system sunday night
are not expected to have a significant hydro impact, but
potential does exist of 0.25"+ rainfall amounts from nw in/sw
lower michigan where axis of better low/mid level moisture is
expected.
confidence remains high in an extended period of much above normal
temperatures through next work week as longwave pattern remains
relatively stable with western conus troughing/eastern conus
ridging. this pattern should be conducive for several storm chances
monday through wednesday, but rather disjointed nature of
evolution of the west coast upper low and its dampening nature
as it shifts across central conus as it encounters stubborn
eastern conus mean upper ridging lead to low confidence in day
to day details regarding extent of this potential for each
individual forecast period. initial frontal placement and
favored mid level short wave track on monday may be far enough
north/northwest to keep shower/storm chances locally low through
monday night. some indications in guidance that plume of
steeper mid level lapse rates should be impinging on western
great lakes monday however. areas along/north of us 6 have been
placed in marginal severe risk monday, with nw in into sw lower
mi likely with the greatest risk of isolated strong/severe
storms based on expected orientation of instability axis.
tuesday and wednesday still appear to feature best chances of
storms (some strong/severe potential) with better chances of
suppression of synoptic front to the southern great lakes.
wednesday`s chances are of a bit lower confidence in comparison
to tuesday but shearing nature of the upper forcing may allow
for slow enough evolution of sfc trough to keep convective
chances into wednesday afternoon/evening.
no intrusions of significantly cooler air are expected through
the work week, and medium range guidance is in general
agreement of next pacific trough digging across western conus
thursday. however, gfs/ec deterministic/ensemble solutions
exhibit a large degree of spread in progression of this next
upper trough which make timing of additional storm chances post-
thursday of low confidence. it does appear a trend to cooler
temperatures is reasonable heading toward the end of this
forecast valid period next weekend.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z sunday/...
issued at 640 am edt sat apr 11 2026
northeasterly low level flow associated with incoming low level
ridge axis has promoted some expanding stratus this morning
across northwest ohio. latest satellite trends/surface
observations do indicate steady westward advancement to kfwa of
some mvfr cigs around 2k feet early this morning. some ifr/lifr
conditions are currently being reported across portions of nw
ohio, but current expectation is for these lower end conditions
to remain east of kfwa this morning. low clouds should scatter
mid-late morning and will be replaced by increasing warm
advection induced mid level cloud cover this afternoon/evening.
winds will gradually veer southeasterly today with the
progression of the sfc high, with speeds likely remaining in the
5 to 10 knot range tonight as tightening pressure gradient with
the departing high partially offsets less mixing. for tonight,
a weak mid level short wave kicking out of kansas today will be
associated with a northward return of the boundary to the
south. there could be just enough elevated moisture return for
some scattered showers to affect ksbn late this period, but
confidence is too low for anything more than a prob30 at this
time.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...marsili
aviation...marsili