227
fxus63 kiwx 161151
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
651 am est mon feb 16 2026
.key messages...
- areas dense fog this morning, with the greatest coverage of
dense fog across much of northern indiana and northwest ohio.
- unseasonably mild through the week.
- rain showers are likely tuesday night into wednesday morning, and
again late thursday into friday.
- cooler (near normal) weather returns by this weekend.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 200 am est mon feb 16 2026
fog continues to gradually fill in early this morning given a
relaxed gradient wind and lingering near sfc moisture trapped within
an inversion. incoming high clouds are likely too late to have much
of an impact with areas of dense fog likely to settle into many
areas toward daybreak, best chances in our in and oh counties
where a dense fog advisory may be needed through the mid morning
hours. unseasonably mild and dry otherwise today and tuesday
with the active polar jet displaced to the north, and heights
slowly on the rise in advance of incoming rockies and high
plains troughing.
pattern then becomes more active for the mid to late week periods as
several systems track along a ~140 kt upper jet developing
from the four corners east-northeast into the ohio valley. the first
low pressure system surging along this incoming upper jet likely
settles northeast into the upper midwest tuesday night within the
diffluent flow field, eventually going through the filling/occlusion
process during the day on wednesday. an associated shot of thete-e
advection will focus rain showers over the area tuesday night into
wednesday morning along an elevated warm front. some weak
instability noted on the leading edge of an eml could be enough to
generate a few storms wednesday morning, though confidence in
thunder chances remains low. warm sector and this eml should put a
cap on things for most of the area by wednesday afternoon with mild
and breezy conditions anticipated.
the lingering baroclinic zone then sets up over or just north of the
area into thursday and friday. the next jet packet and developing
sfc reflection will track along it with another period of rain
(iso thunder?) likely late thursday into friday morning. trending
cooler then behind this system into the weekend.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z tuesday/...
issued at 648 am est mon feb 16 2026
development of a strong nocturnal inversion and trapped low
level moisture with a good deal of near sfc moisture from recent
snowmelt has led to widespread fog formation across northern
indiana this morning. a broad anticyclone from southern missouri
into southern ohio will continue to get suppressed south early
this morning as a southwesterly gradient strengthens into mid
morning. despite this strengthening gradient, the strength of
the low level inversion and poor mixing will likely allow
lifr/ifr conditions in fog to persist through the 15z-16z
timeframe. otherwise, as fog dissipates later this morning and
into the midday period, southwesterly winds will increase with
some gusts into the 15 to 20 knot range before decoupling
diminishes wind speeds to 10 knots or less this evening. for
tonight, a progressive mid level trough will race across the
great lakes/southeast ontario, allowing a sfc cold front to
stall out across the southern great lakes. a weakness in the
gradient near this boundary could be enough to support some more
fog development tonight with some ifr/mvfr conditions appearing
likely.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...dense fog advisory until 10 am est /9 am cst/ this morning for
inz005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
oh...dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for ohz001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili