606
fxus63 kiwx 300748
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
248 am est fri jan 30 2026
.key messages...
- remaining very cold into sunday with the wind chills right
around negative 15 degrees fahrenheit in northwest ohio.
- times of snow showers today as the main lake effect snow area
shifts west of the forecast area. this band is expected to
return to areas west of in-31 with western berrien and laporte
counties having the best chance to see 2 to 4 additional
inches of snow and times of low visibility as a result.
- temperatures warm into the 20s for most areas sunday and for
all monday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 228 am est fri jan 30 2026
a shortwave, within the upper low across southeastern canada and
northeast united states, moves from south-central canada into the
northern plains this morning. this shortwave then dives southeast
towards the southeast conus friday night. this is a rather
complicated setup to model the flow around lake mi and the resultant
convergence and its eventual location. there is some agreement in
models shoving the lake effect band westward, and one can already
see it doing so as of around 3 or 4z thursday evening. at the same
time as the convergence is shoved westward along lake mi, there is a
surface trough with low level moisture, convergence, and lift that
moves southward out of mi and through our area through the day
today. models generally did not handle the inland extent of the snow
last evening well and wouldn`t be surprised with additional sbcape,
an area of low level surface convergence, and low level moisture
that some snow could linger on land today, especially during
the afternoon when that better sbcape forms, as the
hrrr/rap/namnest/nsslwrf seem inclined to retain to some
extent. these snow showers moving through could be enough to
lower visibility, but wind gusts really don`t look to get going
until friday evening at the earliest and mainly in the west as
the gradient picks up.
toward midnight this evening, as the shortwave dives southeastward
like explained earlier, the convergence along the lake mi band will
have a tendency to shift eastward back towards our forecast area.
there is still some issue with pinpointing exactly where it will be
and the disagreement is about a county or two in width. so my pops
try and pad some of this disagreement. looking at nam bufkit
profiles, as the lake effect snow returns, omega appears within the
dgz, but moisture appears on the upper limits or just above the dgz
so that the best moisture would cause a mixture of dendrites
and plates to form as opposed to forming dendrites only and this
would cause a lowering of the slr. inversion heights start at
around 6500 to 7500 but fall throughout the overnight into
saturday morning and delta ts slightly fall from 20 to 25c to
more like 15 to 20c during the overnight. due to these
parameters, an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow will be
possible from southwest berrien into western laporte county.
the area of cold temperatures in the low levels begins moving
southeastward tonight, but it does still bring a chance for wind
chills to drop into the negative teens mainly in nw oh away from
lake effect clouds. the caveat here is that winds go light to
calm and that also reduces confidence in this happening.
therefore, have held off on issuing a cold weather advisory this
time around. it is possible that allen and putnam counties in nw
oh receive an advisory for the cold with van wert and henry
counties not out of the woods. a similar area could also see
cold weather advisories sunday morning before the warm up
arrives.
mid level ridging takes over for saturday spelling suppression
of lift and a reprieve from this wintry weather we`ve been
having. 850 mb temperatures also warm from the low negative
teens to around negative 20 early this morning to around
negative 10 sunday morning and monday morning. this will allow
highs to creep back into the 20s for sunday and monday. lows
also rise from the single digits below and above zero to back
towards the teens by monday night. so a warm up is in store.
the next chance for precipitation appears to be later sunday night
into monday as a low pressure system passes to the north of the
great lakes and an occluded front moves through. some light snow
showers will be possible but it will take some time for a moisture
stream to arrive in the area and the northwest winds indicate its a
loose connection anyway. expect the snow showers to be light.
the ecmwf is already quick to bring the next shortwave towards the
area tuesday morning, whereas the gfs brings it in tuesday afternoon
with the gem in between. this still looks like light snow showers,
but the gfs is also warmer with its later arrival than the ecmwf at
this time. will allow the nbm to handle this period with its
discrepancies during this time.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 1245 am est fri jan 30 2026
approaching trough combined with continued, cold, northerly
flow off lake michigan will support lake effect snow at ksbn
through the morning. confidence in ifr visibilities is not high
but enough signal in guidance to warrant a tempo mention when
stronger band moves inland around 12z. this band will then shift
west during the day but forecast soundings suggest a moisture-
laden inversion will remain, holding mvfr stratus in place.
even at kfwa some periods of mvfr stratus are expected today.
lake effect band returns to ksbn tonight but looks to arrive
just after 06z.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...roller
aviation...agd