995
fxus63 kiwx 242355
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
755 pm edt sun may 24 2026
.key messages...
- areas of fog developing overnight. patchy dense fog is
possible. a marine dense fog advisory is in effect for the
lake michigan nearshore. otherwise, clearing clouds with lows
in the 50s.
- dry and trending warmer monday into tuesday. low rain chances
(10-30%) return on wednesday.
- seasonable temperatures and mainly dry conditions thursday
through next weekend.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 200 pm edt sun may 24 2026
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms just west of the interstate
69 corridor in northern in and southwest mi as of 18z will continue
to track east through the remainder of the forecast area this
afternoon into early this evening. the bulk of this activity is
anchored to a surface trough enhanced by a shortwave and associated
weak 30 kt mid level jetlet lifting east-northeaset through the
lower great lakes. skinny/tall cape and near 1.50 inch precipitable
water values will likely support some heavier downpours and a few
lightning strikes. marginal instability and weak lapse rates will
act to keep any convection well below severe limits.
a drier, subsident air mass will filter in tonight through tuesday
behind today`s system with high pressure generally in control. fog
will be possible early monday given lingering near sfc moisture,
light winds and mainly clear skies. sunnier skies in this regime
will allow for warmer daytime highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s,
warmest on tuesday.
a rather stagnant, near omega blocking pattern settles in midweek
into next weekend in the mid to upper levels, with troughing into
the northwest us and anomalous ridging in the upper midwest and
south-central canada. this transition does send a backdoor cold
front south toward the area on wednesday, while at the same time a
moisture-laden 700mb impulse and warm front attempts to lift north
toward the us 30 corridor. these features will bring low chances (10-
30%, highest south of us 30) for showers and a few storms on
wednesday, with the remainder of the week/weekend likely dry with
seasonable temps and lower humidity as the merged fronts likely
settle off to the southwest.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z tuesday/...
issued at 744 pm edt sun may 24 2026
expect predominantly vfr conditions through this evening, then
expect br/fg and/or low ceiling development overnight at both
terminals, with ifr/lifr conditions expected (especially at
ksbn). vlifr visibilities are possible at both ksbn and kfwa,
but felt more confident in ksbn dropping to 1/4sm so have a
tempo between 9-12z dropping to 1/4sm bkn003. for now, kept kfwa
lifr just at/above airfield landing minimums. otherwise,
decreasing clouds at both sites, with kfwa seeing the back edge
of the mvfr as of this writing (broken ceilings 2500-3000ft).
have a tempo for mvfr and slightly stronger winds until 2z.
expect calm/variable winds overnight shifting east-southeast
through the morning at both sites, with improvement to mvfr
after sunrise and then vfr by late morning.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...dense fog advisory until 10 am edt monday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...mcd