122
fxus63 kiwx 060614
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
214 am edt mon apr 6 2026
.key messages...
- rain exits the area this morning and mainly dry conditions
will persist through early thursday.
- cooler temperatures are expected tonight into tuesday with
lows in the 20s and highs around 40.
- warmer weather returns later this week, along with our next
chance for rain.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 153 am edt mon apr 6 2026
midlevel jet and attendant vort max on the cyclonically sheared side
currently pushing through our cwa and generating some light rain.
this activity will exit by 12z but an additional vort max will
arrive later today and maintain general cyclonic low/midlevel flow
over michigan. can`t rule out a few sprinkles in our far n/ne zones
during the day (aided by some marginal lake instability) but expect
any rain to be very light and isolated so will hold with silent 10
pop. the passage of this secondary shortwave tonight will mark the
arrival of some much colder air. 850mb temps drop to nearly -12c by
early tue morning (coldest in our ne). latest concensus guidance
came in a degree or two warmer but still well into the 20s for the
entire cwa. the growing season has not officially begun for our area
yet so no headlines planned. highs tue struggle to get out of the
low 40s despite full afternoon sun.
high pressure drifts east tue night/wed and return flow/waa pushes
highs back to around 60f by wed afternoon and around 70f by thu. in
similar fashion to previous events, a closed low then crosses
ontario and sends a weak, increasingly orphaned, front through our
area thu night/fri. the forecast thereafter becomes challenging as
this orphaned front stalls somewhere over the region and eventually
lifts back north as deep troughing redevelops over the western conus
and downstream southwest flow returns to the great lakes. this could
lead to a wet period over the weekend into next week but there is
still a lot of spread in the guidance with some solutions keeping
the main zone of precip just north of our area. water levels will
have a chance to recede during the next several days but will
continue to watch the weekend into next week closely for additional
rainfall chances.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z tuesday/...
issued at 153 am edt mon apr 6 2026
vfr to mvfr conditions expected at the terminals this period. a
surface trough/cool front will move through tonight into early
monday morning, bringing a wind shift to the west-northwest and
light to moderate rain showers. current observations show mainly
light precipitation upstream over chicago extending eastward
into nw in/sw lower mi. there are pockets of moderate rain near
chicago, with one lightning strike observed in the past 3 hours.
most of the ceilings upstream are vfr, with occasional drops to
high-end mvfr ceilings/visibilities. guidance supports this, so
at ksbn have vfr predominant with light rain through 12z, with a
period of mvfr ceilings/vis possible with any moderate rain
that moves in around 8-10z. left out thunder for now given low
occurrence upstream. winds shift to the west-northwest behind
this front, with a period of clearing/scattered clouds for a
period before another trough moves in by late morning/early
afternoon. winds shift more nw behind this wave, gusting to
25-30kts at times by late afternoon. upstream satellite shows
the clearing/scattered clouds behind the first wave with light-
moderate winds (less gustiness), then behind the second wave we
have mvfr to vfr ceilings with northwest winds gusting to 25-30
knots. have this in the taf for this period before winds lighten
up overnight again. suspect that there may be a few showers
around with the wave in the afternoon that are aided by cyclonic
flow off lake mi, but confidence was too low to include at this
point.
as for kfwa, guidance suggests the first wave diminishes in
intensity as it moves east. some models like the rap have the
precipitation being extremely light, remaining north of the
terminal, or diminishing all together (each scenario keeping
ceilings/visibilities vfr). the nam/hrrr bring in more moderate
precipitation and a brief time of mvfr ceilings/visibilities.
for now, have a prob30 for mvfr conditions. similarly to ksbn,
winds shift west-northwest behind the first wave with potential
for scattered clouds, then behind the second wave winds shift
more nw and gust up to around 25 knots. there does not appear to
be as much potential for mvfr ceilings in the afternoon, so
left conditions vfr beyond the prob30 group (9-12z).
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 11 am edt
tuesday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...agd
aviation...mcd