462
fxus63 kiwx 141829
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
129 pm est sun dec 14 2025
.key messages...
- wind chills of -5 to -15 tonight into monday morning.
- warming trend tuesday through thursday with highs up near 50 by
thursday.
- periods of rain on thursday, followed by windy conditions and
briefly cooler temperatures into thursday night and friday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 129 pm est sun dec 14 2025
~1042 hpa arctic high pressure center over far west-central il will
weaken southeast through the lower oh valley and central
appalachians tonight into monday under building heights aloft. this
will allow low level flow trajectories to back west into this
evening, and to the southwest later tonight and monday. lingering
lake effect snow showers/flurries will taper off as a result this
afternoon and evening with little additional accum/impact near lake
mi. lighter winds on the edge of the sfc high and eventual northward
lift and erosion of lake clouds should allow for decent
radiational cooling over fresh snow, with lows near zero in many
locations. temps then likely level out into early monday as
light southwest flow develops. whether wind chills can settle
solidly into advisory criteria (-15 to -24f) for a time later
tonight into monday morning remains highly uncertain. a model
consensus and href probs generally favor wind chills in the -5
to -15f range for most. have opted to hold off on a cw.y as a
result, but will continue to message the cold in other products.
a 40-50 kt llj develops late tonight into monday in response to
a tightening low level height gradient behind the departing
high and a weak sfc trough tracking east into the northern great
lakes. southwesterly gusts reaching 25-30 mph within this
feature during the day on monday could result in patchy
blowing/drifting in rural areas, especially near lake mi and
over the southern half of the forecast area where several inches
of snow fell yesterday.
a more zonal flow regime will bring relatively quiet weather and
warming temperatures tuesday into wednesday. a buckle in this more
progressive, flattened, flow does send a stronger cold front through
around thursday with periods of rain likely. windy and briefly
colder behind this system then into thursday night and friday.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 1240 pm est sun dec 14 2025
lake effect snow showers continue early this afternoon. however,
strong synoptic scale subsidence and lowering inversion heights
should reduce coverage/intensity through the late afternoon
hours. greatest potential of ifr vsbys with lake effect snow
showers is expected to be through 20z or 21z at ksbn. veering
low level wind profiles should keep greatest lake effect snow
shower potential west of kfwa. mid level height rises follow for
late this afternoon into this evening as low level anticyclone
sinks south across southern indiana toward midnight tonight.
this will set up southwest return flow for the 2nd half of the
period, with gusts into the 25 to 30 knot range expected by
mid-late morning monday. lingering lake effect clouds at ksbn
this evening should erode as this southwesterly flow becomes
established. did contemplate a need for some mvfr vsby inclusion
for some blowing and drifting snow monday, but confidence
remains too low at terminal locations at this time.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lmz043-
046.
gale warning from 5 am to 1 pm est monday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...marsili