003
fxus63 kiwx 121824
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
224 pm edt sun apr 12 2026
.key messages...
- unseasonably warm temperatures expected through the upcoming
work week with highs in the 70s and even some 80s at times.
- an active period of showers and thunderstorm chances through
the middle of the week. greatest probability of showers and
storms is tuesday night and wednesday (60-80%). there is a
potential of severe weather, mainly late tuesday afternoon and
night along with wednesday afternoon and early evening.
- little, if any hydro concerns expected into tuesday morning.
confidence is low to medium on some impacts tuesday night into
wednesday, but too early to pin down specific basins.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 224 pm edt sun apr 12 2026
cloud cover has quickly cleared out with a rapid upward trends in
temperatures today with many locations enjoying the 70s. these
temperatures will dominate much of the upcoming week as the overall
upper level pattern remains unchanged with a trough across the
western us and a unimpeded southwest flow ushering in warmth and
moisture. a series of disturbances will eject from the trough, the
first arriving this evening. this feature is currently highlighted
by an area of showers and a few storms across western missouri. this
will move northeast into tonight, bringing increasing chances for
showers and maybe a storm or 2 this evening and maybe into the
overnight hours before quickly moving away. some models trend with
an overall weakening of the area as it outruns the better lift, but
most areas should see some measurable rainfall (not enough to cause
any additional hydro issues).
some changes to pops have occurred through the day monday and even
into mon night and early tuesday to match with a converging of
trends wrt to axis of best precip chances most likely north (if not
well north) of the forecast area. in the wake of tonight`s wave,
there will be little in the way of forcing around monday until the
next wave approaches and by in large misses the area to the nw.
temps in the 70s and dewpoints in the 60s will allow for 1k to maybe
2k of sbcape and modest low/mid level lapse rates. with the lack of
any trigger, convective potential would be very isolated, if at all
through monday afternoon. an increasing llj to the west and another
disturbance will set the stage for shower and storm development with
the greatest threat across wi into central lower mi near the warm
front. still appears there could be a few showers and storms around
monday evening across far northern areas, but could see pops getting
whittled down further in future forecasts.
tuesday into wednesday appear to be the potentially busier days, but
not clear cut in terms of severe or flooding potential. with the
bulk of the precip expected to be north of the area to start
tuesday, this would set the stage for better heating and plenty of
instability around for tuesday afternoon and evening. with the more
northward trend in the best chances of convection mon ngt/early tues
this could lead to a lack of convective boundaries around to allow
early initiation tuesday afternoon. this would mean we may need to
wait till the next disturbances moves in tuesday night with
increasing chances for showers and storms in the nw third to maybe
half of the area. with the main surface features still to the north
and west, the greatest focus for severe weather could materialize
well away with convection then moving in during a less favorable
window overnight into early wed. only minor changes made tuesday
night given the low confidence on any 1 scenario. if stronger storms
take shape, all modes would be possible (leaning towards hail or
wind damage). wednesday relies heavily on tuesday nights outcome as
the main cold front will still remain well west of the area and the
sfc low working north across mi. the upper level trough will begin
to eject and intensify somewhat with general consensus of the wave
in eastern ne at 00z thu then to wi by 18z thu. the greatest severe
threat likely will reside to our west once again (as highlighted by
the dy4 15% area from s wi into ne tx). no changes for wednesday
into thursday given the uncertainty.
yet another northern stream trough will dig into wy/co by 12z fri
with a uptick in the low level flow to usher in potentially the
first day of more widespread 80 degree temps across portions of the
area. a leftover front may exist to cause somewhat of a gradient
north to south but still well above normal even north of it (mid to
upper 70s). rain chances look to increase friday night into saturday
as the trough moves across the area and pushes a strong cold front
with it. highs sunday are likely to be 15 to 25 degrees cooler than
sat.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 109 pm edt sun apr 12 2026
high and eventually mid-level clouds will fill in for the
remainder of the day time hours as the warm sector of a north
dakota low becomes established. moisture advection from the
gulf will improve and a few-hour period of showers is expected
tonight. a strengthening low-level jet, not only a key forcing
mechanism for tnoight`s showers, presents a marginal llws
concern. however, forecast soundings depict no inversion and the
duration will be relatively brief, so, will withhold from the
taf at this time.
mvfr ceilings threaten to linger through the end of the taf
period with time-height cross sections showing robust low-level
moisture.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 8 am edt monday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...fisher
aviation...brown