685
fxus63 kiwx 031115
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
615 am est tue nov 3 2026
.key messages...
- breezy and dry today with record-challenging warmth. southerly
wind gusts of 25 mph to perhaps 35 mph.
- rain arrives from west to east late tonight. breezy with
lingering showers through wednesday.
- not as warm to end the week with lake enhanced showers at
times.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 249 am est tue nov 3 2026
a well defined upper-level trough is lifting north-northeast through
kansas early this morning. closer to home, low stratus and patchy
drizzle continues to lift north through michigan in response to this
lifting cyclone. stout warm air advection has brought steadily
rising temperatures on this shift with an increasing number of 60-
degree readings (normal high today is only 55). that said, morning
temperatures will be a nice spring board for afternoon highs that
will challenge the day`s records: 76 degrees in 2003 and 1987 (2003
record was only at fort wayne). rather cloudy immediately upstream,
but clearing is noted across the ohio river. this could be enough
later today to truly challenge the record. cloud cover will also
dictate afternoon mixing of the low-level jet. forecast soundings
depict a narrow window after 1pm where guidance attempts to mix down
35 mph gusts. overall today, breezy, decreasing clouds (especially
along and east of the i-69 corridor) and dry.
rain slowly arrives from west to east tuesday night according to
available near-term models (rip href, nam et. al.). northwest ohio
could very well be dry until after daybreak wednesday as low
pressure becomes stacked beneath the parent upper-low, slowing the
cold front`s arrival. breezy conditions persist into wednesday
morning as the low-level jet remains amplified over northwest ohio.
a dry slot from this low slowly works its way east permitting some
afternoon dry hours. cooler air behind this system seeps in
wednesday night through thursday along with lake-enhanced showers.
highs in the 60s wednesday and thursday give way to highs in the 50s
friday through the weekend. this whole system exits later saturday
ending the lake-enhanced shower chance.
beyond the weekend, subtle northwest flow results in temperatures
fairly close to normal and opportunities for 20% pops at times as
weak disturbances ripple through the flow. subtle ridging is noted
over the southern and central us, which, if building into the
midwest could later induce a more zonal flow locally. however, the
core global models are teasing chilly canadian high pressure after
veteran`s day.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 615 am est tue nov 3 2026
low pressure over eastern kansas lifts northeast through the taf
period. vfr ceilings have settled in and upstream observations
indicate this will continue through a majority of the taf
period as we reside within the warm sector. since the 06z tafs,
i did remove the llws mention in the near-term due to the
situation becoming rather marginal, and an absence of any
g-airmet products. however, llws may come into play around the
06z window as the low-level jet strengthens. flow is rather
unidirectional, however, and so this gets an honorable mention
for the time being.
at the end of the taf period, rain arrives from west to east
along an incoming cold front. ceilings deteriorate further
beyond the front. medium confidence in -shra start time.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 7 am est wednesday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...brown
aviation...brown