021
fxus63 kiwx 292328
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
628 pm est mon dec 29 2025
.key messages...
- blustery conditions persist through the evening commute
before subsiding.
- lake effect snow will slowly diminish tonight, but areas of
blowing snow will encumber travel.
- a pair of clipper bring a quick dose of snow tuesday night and
wednesday night.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 224 pm est mon dec 29 2025
a powerful low pressure system will continue track northeast. as it
does so, wind gusts will steadily decline. lake effect snow showers
persist this evening, but are expected to diminish overnight. very
cold much of this week with a couple of clippers tuesday night and
wednesday night.
a 980mb low located northeast of lake huron continues to produce 45
to 50 mph wind gusts as of this writing over our forecast area. the
synoptic burst of snow this morning, associated with a 65-70 knot
500-mb jet has cleared the area but a couple of stronger lake effect
bands continue to spill well inland reaching far northwest ohio.
thus, blowing snow and highly variable conditions are anticipated
for the evening commute, even for areas north of fort wayne. steady
lake effect snow and windy conditions persist for those within the
winter storm warning and winter weather advisory. visibility has
improved notably since the morning hours but conditions remain poor
allowing the winter headlines to continue. for the wind advisory, a
partial clearing was completed for some areas below 39 kts.
otherwise, frequent gusts of 39 kts or more continue, especially in
northeast in and northwest ohio.
lake effect snow tapers off tonight as dry air entrainment occurs in
the low-levels and after midnight, inversion heights fall. the
trough axis now lifting northeast will pull the lake effect bands
steadily to the northwest, limiting the fetch as well. wind gusts
tonight decreasing toward 25 mph will still be enough to cause
blowing and drifting snow which may impact the tuesday morning
commute as well.
the next upper-level low dives in tuesday night, followed by a
second, stronger 100kt jet at 500-mb wednesday night. thus, wednesday
night`s clipper could be stronger than the preceding one. drying out
for the late-week period with temperatures moderating toward
freezing for the weekend.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z wednesday/...
issued at 625 pm est mon dec 29 2025
a deep cyclone across southwest quebec will continue to slowly
lift northeast overnight with a continued gradual easing of low
level gradient winds. a very cold air mass will continue to
provide favorable profiles for lake effect snow showers this
evening, although depth of this lake induced instability will be
become quite limited. some lowering of inversion heights tonight
does beg the question on potential for some cigs below 2000 feet
late tonight, but confidence remains too low at this time to
include cigs below 2000 feet. some ifr vsby restrictions in
snow/blowing snow are likely at ksbn for the rest of the
evening, while mvfr vsbys with some lake effect snow showers are
expected at kfwa through 03z or 04z. winds back westerly for
tuesday in advance of next clipper system that will bring shot
of some warm/moist advection across southern great lakes late
tuesday afternoon into tuesday evening. this westerly flow will
provide some lake enhancement to this synoptic forcing, with
some renewed potential of snow at ksbn late in this forecast
period, or just beyond. cigs should improve to vfr as the flow
backs more westerly on tuesday.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...winter weather advisory until 1 am est /midnight cst/ tuesday
for inz005-103-104-204.
oh...none.
mi...winter storm warning until 1 am est tuesday for miz078-079-177-
277.
marine...gale warning until 1 am est tuesday for lmz043-046.
small craft advisory from 1 am tuesday to 7 pm est wednesday
for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...brown
aviation...marsili