459
fxus63 kiwx 101857 cca
afdiwx
area forecast discussion...corrected
national weather service northern indiana
257 pm edt tue mar 10 2026
.key messages...
- scattered strong to severe thunderstorms likely tonight, with
the potential for very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes,
best chances along and north of us 24 in in and mi.
- potential for heavy rain and localized flash flooding tonight
into wednesday morning, best chances northern half of the
forecast area where a flood watch was issued.
- potential for strong winds (45+ mph) on friday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 222 pm edt tue mar 10 2026
little change in thinking regarding the severe thunderstorm and
heavy rain potential late this afternoon into tonight. as of 18z,
frontal boundary of interest has dropped into far nw in east along
and just north of the mi line. the nose of a developing 40-50 kt low
level jet into this boundary will enhance convergence and helicity
late this afternoon into this evening with discrete supercells
likely expanding east into areas mainly north of the us 24 corridor
during this time. cape/shear profiles appear favorable for sustained
rotating updrafts with large hail and tornadoes the primary threats
initially.
convection likely congeals into more of a linear mode overnight as
stronger upper level forcing overspreads and boundary parallel flow
increases. primary threats likely transition more to damaging winds
with any organized linear segments (possibly a convectively
augmented mcv) and heavy rain/flooding given high moisture content
(pwats > 1.20") and smaller mbe vectors hinting at backbuilding.
opted for a flood watch for mainly urban type flash flooding across
the northern half of the fa where better odds for training
convection exist. the main upper level trough and cold front will
swing through during the day on wednesday with fairly widespread
showers slowly diminishing from west to east. temperatures will also
fall back into the 30s and 40s post-frontal wednesday afternoon
within gusty northwest winds.
high pressure will provide relatively quiet weather conditions in
between systems wednesday night into thursday. a strong mid level
shortwave within the left exit region of a 170 kt upper jet looks to
send a rather robust sfc low (~990 mb) east through wi and northern
lower michigan late thursday night into friday. this system could
bring some brief light precipitation within its waa wing, though the
main impact with be the wind field around this with a period of
advisory level gusts (45 mph+) not out of the question for a time
on friday.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z wednesday/...
issued at 113 pm edt tue mar 10 2026
a strong cold front had combined with a lake breeze and was just
northwest of sbn at the start of the taf period. a deep surface
low was over ks. the low will race east along the front and
should track just northwest of sbn. as the low approaches,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop. the best
chance for storms during this taf period is with the passage of
the front. reduced visibilities and wind shear are especially
likely in the vicinity of the front and near all storms.
lingering showers will persist through the rest of the taf
period.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...flood watch from 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening through late
tonight for inz005>009-012-014-015-017-018-103-104-116-
203-204-216.
oh...flood watch from 8 pm edt this evening through late tonight
for ohz001-002-004-005-015.
mi...flood watch from 8 pm edt this evening through late tonight
for miz078>081-177-277.
marine...small craft advisory from 11 am wednesday to 11 am edt
thursday for lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...steinwedel
aviation...skipper