542
fxus63 kiwx 140648
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
248 am edt thu may 14 2026
.key messages...
- dry and cool today with highs in the 60s.
- 20-30% chances for light rain showers south of us 24 on friday
- periodic chances for showers and storms over the weekend into
early next week.
- trending warmer and increasingly humid through early next week
with highs in the 80s saturday through at least monday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 248 am edt thu may 14 2026
today will be a picture perfect day across the midwest and great
lakes regions. cyclonic flow on the backside of a low pressure
system centered over the northeast will continue today with light
northwest winds and highs only topping out in the low to mid 60s.
with high pressure building in overhead, lots of sunshine is
expected today as drier air works in. a weak forcing with an
incoming 500mb shortwave brings us our next, albeit low, chances for
rain on friday, although there will still be a lot of dry air to
overcome near the surface. light rain will be possible friday
morning and early afternoon (20-30% chances), mainly south of us 24.
a big pattern change is ahead this weekend into early next week!
deterministic and ensemble model guidance continue to show a strong
consensus for high pressure building over the southeastern us and an
amplified upper level ridge taking shape over the great lakes. our
first occurrence of summer-like heat and humidity for the year
will arrive by the weekend into early next week. temperatures
will steadily increase each day, with highs in the 70s friday
and into the low to mid 80s both saturday and sunday. in
accordance with the previous shift, have coordinated with wpc
and other neighboring offices to keep monday`s highs capped in
the mid to upper 80s. while it is not out of the question that
some locations south of us 24 could reach 90 degrees, the nbm
was coming in much too warm at nearly 100th percentile of model
guidance with widespread low 90s for forecast highs.
breezy southerly winds will allow for a gulf connection to develop
over the weekend. increased moisture transport from the gulf into
our forecast area will lead to a stark increase in humidity. by
sunday and monday, dewpoints should be well into the 60s, which will
definitely make for very humid conditions in combination with the
above normal temperatures. this hot and humid pattern is favorable
for daily rain and storm chances. finer details are still murky this
far out as to exactly where and when it may rain/storm, but it does
not appear like each day will be a washout. the best chances for
rain/storms will be saturday afternoon/evening (60-80% chances) and
again monday and tuesday (30-60% chances in the evening and early
overnight). a low pressure system will develop across the central
plains and lift into the upper midwest by monday; i would not be
surprised if spc extends their day 5 (monday) and day 6 (tuesday)
severe risks eastward into our area with their update later this
morning with such a hot, humid airmass in place. substantial
spread in model guidance exists this far out but with a warm
front lifting north through our forecast area on monday and an
attendant cold front tuesday, there could be strong to severe
storms both days.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z friday/...
issued at 109 am edt thu may 14 2026
with high pressure building overhead, a dry and quiet day is
ahead with mostly clear skies. light northwest winds and vfr
ceilings persist overnight; winds will gradually increase to
around 10 kts this morning after sunrise.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...johnson
aviation...johnson