093
fxus63 kiwx 030547
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
147 am edt fri apr 3 2026
.key messages...
- isolated strong to severe storms are possible tonight, and
then again friday afternoon and evening. the main threats
will be damaging winds, heavy rain, and localized flooding.
- flooding concerns persist through the weekend with additional
rounds of rain and storms friday into saturday.
- mild with highs in the 70s through saturday. cooler, in the
40s, to begin the new week.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 1253 pm edt thu apr 2 2026
a surface low over eastern kansas continues to be our focus for a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon. critically,
a warm front is gradually lifting into the southern portions of our
forecast area as dew points rise into the mid-50s. south of this
warm front, stratus is clearing as well. guidance is generally
handling this moisture advection well, which bolsters confidence in
the guidance. the source region for storms later today, west-central
illinois, remains socked in beneath clouds for the time being. yet,
href members and hourly cams remain in fair agreement that
conditions will improve, the stratus and cap will break, resulting
in a broken line of thunderstorms over northwest in near 5pm edt.
in general, ingredients remain disjointed with departing 500mb and
850 mb jets placing our area in the right entrance region briefly,
along with waning mucape below 1,000 j/kg which can be enough when
paired with 45-50 knots of bulk shear (seen here). 0-1 km helicity
is supportive for tornadoes, but again, the holistic environment is
disjointed/marginal. damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and heavy
rainfall remain the primary concerns from 5pm and 11pm edt. high
confidence in a weakening trend as any storms near the i-69 corridor
due to departing upper-level support and waning instability.
precipitable water values remain high, conducive for downpours, but
area-wide rainfall amounts are forecast to be 0.25-0.50". lastly,
the inherited wind advisory remains on track but limited by existing
cloudiness. upstream, wind gusts are increasing (about 40-42mph in
central il).
active weather persists both friday and saturday. tonight`s cold
front has minimal effect as strong ridging off the outer banks
encourages warm, southerly flow. meanwhile, over the central us,
cyclogenesis is underway bringing another warm front through our
area friday. this favors rain primarily south of us-24 that
gradually lifts north friday. the cold front then sweeps through
saturday. preceding rain in the warm sector and lagging jet dynamics
look to limit any severe weather risk on saturday. however, an
unseasonably moist air mass continues to threaten locally heavy
rainfall resulting in 0.5 to 1" of rain friday night through
saturday.
sharply colder sunday and monday with highs in the 40s to near 50.
this remains the case on tuesday as a secondary surge of cold,
canadian air becomes established via expansive high pressure. a
clipper system precedes this, brining a 20%-30% chance of rain or
snow showers monday night across michigan. look for warmer
conditions wednesday and beyond.
&&
.aviation /06z tafs through 06z saturday/...
issued at 135 am edt fri apr 3 2026
predominantly vfr to mvfr conditions for the terminals tonight
into friday, with periods of ifr/lifr ceilings/vis possible in
any heavier rain showers or thunderstorms. a cold front will
move through tonight, with winds shifting to the west-northwest
through tonight. at ksbn, winds eventually shift to the n-ne,
and at kfwa will be somewhat more variable by fri afternoon as a
warm front approaches from the south and lingers near kfwa until
fri evening. s-sw wind gusts up to around 30-35 knots are
possible outside the cold front, then w-sw gusts up to 45 knots
are possible within any heavier showers/t-storms. ksbn will see
shower/t-storm activity through around 8-9z, then kfwa between
8-12z. michigan city, in gusted to around 48kts with the
t-storm that just moved through, so have up to around 45 knots
in both tafs for now. it`s possible storms weaken as they go
eastward to kfwa giving waning instability. otherwise, behind
the front a period of mvfr ceilings persists through the
afternoon. there may be a period of vfr ceilings before the warm
front approaches from the south and brings them back into mvfr
range (along with t-storm activity). have kfwa seeing storms
around 21z and later, then ksbn around 2-6z. winds by late
evening will be out of the east (e-ne at ksbn/e-se at kfwa).
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
lmz043-046.
&&
$$
discussion...brown
aviation...mcd