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fxus63 kiwx 202011

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
311 pm est wed feb 20 2019

issued at 311 pm est wed feb 20 2019

areas of fog, drizzle, and light rain will continue into the early
evening as a cold front moves through. high pressure will build in
for thursday and friday with seasonable temperatures and dry
conditions. a strong low pressure system then brings widespread
rain saturday afternoon into saturday night, followed by strong
winds on sunday.


.short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 311 pm est wed feb 20 2019

embedded smaller scale shortwave embedded in southwest flow will
bring widespread rain showers to areas mainly along/south of us
24 late this afternoon. lesser coverage (more drizzle) anticipated
to the west as a sfc occluded front swings through west to east
early this evening. good deep layer subsidence/drying then
overspreads post-frontal tonight bringing a quick end to precip
chances. low stratus will be slower to erode with cold advection
surge setting up some decent wind gusts overnight.

high pressure will build in for thursday and friday with seasonable
temps expected.


.long term...(friday night through wednesday)
issued at 311 pm est wed feb 20 2019

active weather will return this weekend as yet another/more potent
shortwave ejects northeast out of northern mexico and the four
corners. the associated surface low is well modeled to rapidly
deepen northeast through the upper midwest and northern great
lakes later saturday into sunday morning as phasing occurs with
incoming northern stream energy. initial elevated theta-e
advection will provide chances for showers as early as later
friday night-saturday morning, with more widespread rainfall and
perhaps a few thunderstorms later saturday into early sunday
morning as warm conveyor belt overrides a northward lifting
baroclinic zone. impressive rise/fall couplet with models
suggesting greater than 50 knots at 925 mb in cold advection wing
hints as a headline level wind event post-frontal sunday.

a change to lower amplitude west-northwest flow is expected into the
first half of next week. undulating temperatures and periodic
chances for rain and snow will result as several upper level
shortwaves progress through in this flow.


.aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z thursday afternoon)
issued at 1223 pm est wed feb 20 2019

low pressure is expected to pass by to the northwest late this
afternoon/early overnight and a cold front is expected to push
through during that time allowing drier air and improving
conditions overnight. before that though, expect saturated low
levels and a dry dgz to continue to threaten drizzle, low cigs and
fog from melting snow and dew points rising into the 30s for this
afternoon. with that, a period of alternate minimum conditions is
likely during the afternoon, but models suggest it may even drop
into lifr for a time especially at fwa. veering winds are also
expected with the frontal passage.


.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...steinwedel
long term...steinwedel

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