307
fxus63 kiwx 242331
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
731 pm edt wed jun 24 2026
.key messages...
- there are chances (60-80 percent) for showers and
thunderstorms today and tonight. a few strong-severe storms
are possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly
along/west of in-15. large hail and damaging winds would be
the primary threat with these storms. a tornado cannot be
ruled out. confidence is low.
- rain and isolated t-storm chances persist on and off through
mid-late week, especially along and south of us 30 thu pm
into sat am. highs will be in the 70s and low 80s.
- high temperatures will climb into the mid-upper 80s sunday and
low-mid 90s monday into wednesday.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 230 pm edt wed jun 24 2026
a weak shortwave out ahead of a broad upper level trough led to
showers in the far northwest this morning into the early-mid
afternoon. the upper level trough swings through later this
afternoon into the overnight hours, bringing better potential for
showers and isolated storms (especially this evening). spc clips our
western forecast area in a marginal risk for strong-severe storms
along/ahead of the cold front (slight risk near la porte/starke,
counties, in). in this area we will have some available sfc
instability (500-1500 j/kg) and around 30-40kts of bulk effective
shear. the mid level lapse rates are fairly paltry--so i suspect
this may keep our storms limited (around 5.5-6 c/km). cloud cover
and rain showers may also limit our ability to heat up in the north
and west, so we`ll see how much we can recover in terms of surface
instability later.
if we do get strong-severe storms it will be towards the late
afternoon/evening hours, probably 6-11 pm edt. storms should weaken
as they move eastward and we lose our daytime heating instability.
if any storms do become severe, damaging winds and large hail are
the primary threats. if storms can become more supercellular further
west and move into our area, we do have a 2% tornado risk (15-20kts
of 0-1km shear)...but confidence in this is pretty low. otherwise,
expect rain showers and variable cloud cover into tonight with lows
in the upper 50s, low 60s.
chances (20-30 percent) for showers and isolated storms continue
into thursday, mainly along and south of us 30 in the
afternoon/early evening hours. severe weather is not expected at
this time. highs will be in the mid-upper 70s.
another trough and surface low pressure system cross the area on
late thu pm into saturday am, with the best chances for
precipitation and thunderstorms along/south of us 30 (60-80
percent). elsewhere, expect around 20-50 percent chances. highs will
be in the mid-upper 70s, low 80s.
an upper level ridge builds in for saturday into early next week,
bringing high temps into the mid-upper 80s, low-mid 90s (esp.
tue/wed). there are some low-end chances for showers and storms in
this period (20-30 percent)-especially late sat pm-sun am.
&&
.aviation /00z tafs through 00z friday/...
issued at 730 pm edt wed jun 24 2026
as a low pressure system swings into lower mi over night, chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be possible. this evening an area
of strong to severe weather exists over southern wi, however, light
to moderate rain across the area this evening could be enough to
keep instability at bay and restrict chances for severe weather. the
nam appears to keep the better instability south of sbn this
evening, but there is some chance of between 250 to 750 j/kg of
instability around the area during the overnight to keep
thunderstorm chances in the forecast. with that in mind, will allow
for mvfr conditions with the arrival of those showers and storms.
fwa will probably have a harder time of coming by some stronger
storms, but at least general thunderstorms will still be possible at
fwa by midnight at the earliest. additionally, stratus begins to
take shape as a cold front arrives, providing low mvfr and
potentially ifr conditions after 5z tonight mainly at sbn.
otherwise, southeast winds veering westerly during the overnight and
into thursday. gusts reaching 15-20 kts will be possible midday into
the afternoon hours at both sites, but fwa has the greater chance
with earlier mixing times and the low level jet being closer.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...brown/mcd
aviation...roller