024
fxus63 kiwx 101730
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
130 pm edt sun may 10 2026
.key messages...
- frost most possible tuesday morning north of the toll road.
- showers and scattered thunderstorms tuesday afternoon and
evening. the threat for severe weather is low.
- warm to end the work week, but rain will also be possible.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 124 pm edt sun may 10 2026
dry and cooler air enters the area from the north as surface high
pressure noses southward. with 850 mb temperatures falling down
around 0c by 12z, the question of frost enters the mind. with an
upper low over in eastern canada, a shortwave rounds the base of its
trough through the great lakes tonight. this brings mid level cloud
cover that probably helps to keep the area warmer for a good amount
of tonight and calls into question the severity of the frost for the
area. at this point, it looks like the best chance for any frost
tonight is in outlying areas in our michigan counties: berrien to
hillsdale. will cover this with an sps for tonight. with the
low pressure system arriving tuesday, it is possible that cloud
cover and an increased pressure gradient affects frost chances
on monday night. the pressure gradient really increases between
6z and 12z so if the temperature can get to 38 or 39 degrees
early enough, maybe we can get some frost started before that
arrives early monday morning. otherwise, the best chance for
frost would be north of the toll road and probably closer to
i-69, away from the developing pressure gradient.
the aforementioned arrival of a low pressure system brings chances
for rain as early as tuesday morning. it is interesting to see dew
points in the upper 20s and 30s tuesday morning, but we rise to
widespread 40s by the early afternoon. it begs the question about
how much rain will be after to fall with the initial moistening of
the column. finally, the warm front pushes into our southwest and
the wet-biased nam has got 500 j/kg of mucape with it, whereas the
ecmwf is rather devoid of instability. this would seem to lessen the
chance for severe weather with its arrival. there is a moisture axis
that swings through with pwats around and just above 1inch as well
as sfc dew points approaching 60f and 850 mb dew points approaching
10c. if this materializes, there could be some locally heavy rain,
but the reduced convective element may take away some of the rain`s
oomph leaving it as more nuisance than anything.
we`ll be in the comma head of the low pressure system for wednesday,
but a bit of a lake shadow eats away at our better low level lapse
rates. still, towards the area of us-30 and i-69, it is possible
that we see some 30 to 40 mph wind gusts during the afternoon.
otherwise, expect dry weather from later wednesday through thursday
as surface high pressure pushes through.
for friday, a pacific trough comes in, but is slowly weakening in
what looks like an upper low. as it approaches the great lakes, it
deepens back into an upper low by saturday night with some rain
around later friday to friday night as a warm front pushes through.
a lot better instability gets into the area for saturday with dew
points reaching well into the 60s ahead of a cold front and we have
some shear to work with, which points to a potential severe weather
event. we could also see some 80 degree high temperatures on
saturday. subsidence follows for sunday behind the low allowing a
return to dry weather.
&&
.aviation /18z tafs through 18z monday/...
issued at 130 pm edt sun may 10 2026
a cu field has developed across the area with daytime heating
this aftn and the presence of a weak frontal boundary. these
clouds will dissipate this evening before a cloud deck around 5k
ft associated with an upper level disturbance advects into the
area between 03 and 06z. these clouds will clear out of the
terminal sites after sunrise. nw winds of around 10 kts will
become light and variable tonight and increases to around 7 kts
mon morning.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...roller
aviation...mf