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fxus63 kiwx 231033
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
633 am edt tue jun 23 2026
.key messages...
- there is a moderate swim risk for southeast lake michigan
beaches today. breaking waves and currents are expected.
- the next chance for showers and storms arrives late wednesday
and continues through thursday. severe weather is not
expected at this time.
- hot weather returns early next week with highs in the 90s.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 350 am edt tue jun 23 2026
shortwave ridge slides over the great lakes today. associated
subsidence and cool/dry northerly flow will ensure a picturesque
june day. anticipate highs generally in the mid 70s with low
humidity, light winds, and just a few diurnal cu. next mid/upper
level jet streak and associated pv anomaly dig into the northern
great lakes wed night. this will send a weak "cold" front through
the region. there is a modest theta-e surge ahead of the front that
will likely help touch off a few showers/storms. current timing
still looks to be overnight wed night so may have to watch for a few
strong storms sneaking into the west late wed evening and perhaps
some renewed development in our se early thu afternoon but overall
the severe risk is low due to lackluster moisture and marginal
instability profiles. also, while 0-6km shear values are high, low
level flow is relatively weak.
this front is still slated to stall somewhere over the ohio valley
at the end of the week. exact location remains a source of
disagreement among the various deterministic and ensemble guidance
members. there is potential for a more potent mcv to eject out of
the plains and ride along this boundary that may clip our southern
zones. however, the relevant features are all dependent on mesoscale
details impossible to resolve this far out. eventually this front
surges northward as a warm front early next week as large/strong
midlevel ridge develops over the great lakes. this will return temps
and humidity levels to more typical summer-like conditions. details
regarding the exact strength and evolution of this ridge remain
murky though and this will dictate any potential rain chances.
general pattern recognition would suggest simply hot and dry weather
but will continue to monitor the potential for a few periodic storms.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z wednesday/...
issued at 633 am edt tue jun 23 2026
vfr conditions will persist through the period as high pressure
and dry northerly flow build across the region. a few diurnal cu
are possible with nnw winds around 10 kts during the afternoon.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...agd
aviation...agd