122
fxus63 kiwx 151115
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
615 am est sun nov 15 2026
.key messages...
- some low clouds linger today with continued slightly below
normal high temperatures from 45 to 50.
- a moderating temperature trend expecting this week with a
return of above normal temperatures. the warmest days appear
to be thursday through saturday with many locations
experiencing highs in the low to mid 60s.
- mainly dry conditions are expected this week with some rain
chances returning by next weekend.
&&
.discussion...
issued at 230 am est sun nov 15 2026
another upper level vort max continues to drop south across the
great lakes region early this morning. moisture profiles have become
quite shallow over the past 24 hours with successive periods of mid
level dry air advection in the active short wave pattern. mainly dry
conditions are expected today, although cannot rule out some patchy
light drizzle accompanying passage of this vort max through daybreak
given the shallow moisture profiles in place and weak lingering low
level lift. continued northerly low level flow today and maintenance
of thin layer of higher rh beneath weak 5k ft based inversion will
likely keep good deal of low clouds around although pockets of
stronger mid level subsidence will allow for some sun in spots.
an expansive 1030mb anticyclone will continue to build in from
the mid ms river valley today which will weaken the low level
flow this afternoon resulting in poor mixing. poor mixing
combined with more of a neutral thermal advection pattern will
result in similar high temperatures today as observed yesterday
(perhaps just a little warmer).
backing and weakening of the low level flow tonight should
result in better opportunity for scattering low clouds, although
would not be surprised if spots, especially east of i-69 into
nw ohio maintain some low cloud cover as guidance continues to
hint at another weak mid/upper level perturbation backdooring
across the eastern great lakes. min temperatures are of lower
confidence tonight given this cloud cover dependency and just
hedged slightly cooler than model blended guidance.
monday should finally feature more aggressive positive mid
level height tendencies as upper midwest mid level ridge shifts
eastward. an associated weak low level westerly flow regime will
set up, but thermal gradients in this pattern are quite weak
with only modest low level warm advection developing. however,
monday will start a moderating trend that will continue into
the weekend.
guidance has been fairly consistent in a progressive eastern pacific
wave pattern, with the first of these more pronounced waves in
the late wednesday to thursday timeframe. moisture return of any
significance looks hard to come by at this time due to stubborn
se conus low/mid level ridging with better moisture transport
downstream of this short wave likely getting pinched off across
the southern and central plains. some elevated moisture return
is likely into the great lakes region late wednesday into
thursday but with bulk of forcing staying north of local area
this would probably be just a very light rain/sprinkle event if
anything, and confined to nw in/sw lower mi. this short wave
will not have a deep latitudinal connection and mid/upper
ridging should aggressively build back in for friday in advance
a more robust upper level short wave depicted in medium range
guidance. this should result in friday/saturday being the
warmest days of the period as broad warm sector develops from
ohio valley to the southern great lakes. highs these days should
reach low-mid 60s and possibly into upper 60s saturday
depending on timing of increasing cloud cover.
while medium range guidance is in good agreement with this wave
across western conus, a good deal of uncertainty arises for next
weekend regarding potential phasing with southern canadian branch of
westerlies. this will impact how far south better dynamics can reach
and the magnitude of northward extent of better low level moisture
transport. given at least large scale signal consensus in
medium range guidance, low to mid range chance shower pops have
been maintained for next weekend with potentially a cool down
back to near seasonable levels (briefly?) for early next week.
&&
.aviation /12z tafs through 12z monday/...
issued at 611 am est sun nov 15 2026
vfr conditions at the terminals for the most part, outside of
mvfr ceilings this morning at ksbn. kfwa sat on the very edge of
a bkn015-bkn025 cloud deck all night, which is shifting further
eastward as of this writing (ksmd has been around 1500 ft all
night). model guidance now appears to keep this cloud deck east
through the day, so shifted to a more optimistic forecast. it`s
possible ksbn could maintain bkn025-bkn030 for longer than
current forecast, but most of guidance improves ceilings to
3500-5000ft by late morning/early afternoon.
&&
.iwx watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
oh...none.
mi...none.
marine...none.
&&
$$
discussion...marsili
aviation...mcd